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Greenhouse gas emissions are warming the ocean with profound consequences at all levels of organization, from organismal rates to ecosystem processes. The proximate driver is an interplay between anthropogenic warming (the trend) and natural fluctuations in local temperature. These two properties cause anomalously warm events such as marine heatwaves to occur with increasing frequency and magnitude. Because warming and variance are not uniform, there is a large degree of geographic variation in temporal temperature variability. We review the underappreciated interaction between trend and variance in the ocean and how it modulates ecological responses to ocean warming. For example, organisms in more thermally variable environments are often more acclimatized and/or adapted to temperature extremes and are thus less sensitive to anthropogenic heatwaves. Considering both trend and variability highlights the importance of processes like legacy effects and extinction debt that influence the rate of community transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern coral reefs and associated biodiversity are severely threatened by increasing terrestrial runoff. Similar scenarios could be suspected for geological times, but reef coral resilience is still an enigma. In late Visean-Serpukhovian (Mississippian foraminiferal zones/MFZ 14-16) times, a major glaciation phase of the late Palaeozoic Ice Age (LPIA) associated with enhanced terrestrial weathering and runoff coincides with a biodiversity crisis and coral reef decline. In this study, the impact of enhanced terrestrial runoff is tested on size variations of colonial corals Aulina rotiformis and Lithostrotion decipiens along a gradient of contemporaneous (Serpukhovian) open marine carbonate to near-shore siliciclastic facies in South China. Along this gradient, their sizes decrease from carbonate, through intermediate carbonate-siliciclastic, to siliciclastic facies. This is consistent with increasing abundance of terrestrial materials of high silicon, aluminium and phosphorus values. On a larger million-year-long interval (MFZ14-16) and for several palaeocontinents, size data of Lithostrotion decipiens and Siphonodendron pauciradiale show a distinct decline in late Visean, when enhanced terrestrial weathering occurred commonly with palaeosols developed during regression. This suggests that terrestrial sediment and nutrient input may have mainly controlled phenotypic plasticity in Mississippian reef corals, with a decrease in size as a component of resilience across the LPIA onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reef fishes are a treasured part of marine biodiversity, and also provide needed protein for many millions of people. Although most reef fishes might survive projected increases in ocean temperatures, corals are less tolerant. A few fish species strictly depend on corals for food and shelter, suggesting that coral extinctions could lead to some secondary fish extinctions. However, secondary extinctions could extend far beyond those few coral-dependent species. Furthermore, it is yet unknown how such fish declines might vary around the world. Current coral mass mortalities led us to ask how fish communities would respond to coral loss within and across oceans. We mapped 6964 coral-reef-fish species and 119 coral genera, and then regressed reef-fish species richness against coral generic richness at the 1° scale (after controlling for biogeographic factors that drive species diversification). Consistent with small-scale studies, statistical extrapolations suggested that local fish richness across the globe would be around half its current value in a hypothetical world without coral, leading to more areas with low or intermediate fish species richness and fewer fish diversity hotspots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review explores how microbial symbioses may have influenced and continue to influence the evolution of reef-building corals (Cnidaria; Scleractinia). The coral holobiont comprises a diverse microbiome including dinoflagellate algae (Dinophyceae; Symbiodiniaceae), bacteria, archaea, fungi and viruses, but here we focus on the Symbiodiniaceae as knowledge of the impact of other microbial symbionts on coral evolution is scant. Symbiosis with Symbiodiniaceae has extended the coral's metabolic capacity through metabolic handoffs and horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and has contributed to the ecological success of these iconic organisms. It necessitated the prior existence or the evolution of a series of adaptations of the host to attract and select the right symbionts, to provide them with a suitable environment and to remove disfunctional symbionts. Signatures of microbial symbiosis in the coral genome include HGT from Symbiodiniaceae and bacteria, gene family expansions, and a broad repertoire of oxidative stress response and innate immunity genes. Symbiosis with Symbiodiniaceae has permitted corals to occupy oligotrophic waters as the algae provide most corals with the majority of their nutrition. However, the coral-Symbiodiniaceae symbiosis is sensitive to climate warming, which disrupts this intimate relationship, causing coral bleaching, mortality and a worldwide decline of coral reefs. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of the microbiome in host evolution'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is leading to shifts in species geographical distributions, but populations are also probably adapting to environmental change at different rates across their range. Owing to a lack of natural and empirical data on the influence of phenotypic adaptation on range shifts of marine species, we provide a general conceptual model for understanding population responses to climate change that incorporates plasticity and adaptation to environmental change in marine ecosystems. We use this conceptual model to help inform where within the geographical range each mechanism will probably operate most strongly and explore the supporting evidence in species. We then expand the discussion from a single-species perspective to community- level responses and use the conceptual model to visualize and guide research into the important yet poorly understood processes of plasticity and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12°C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12°C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One-third of the world's reef-building corals are facing heightened extinction risk from climate change and other anthropogenic impacts. Previous studies have shown that such threats are not distributed randomly across the coral tree of life, and future extinctions have the potential to disproportionately reduce the phylogenetic diversity of this group on a global scale. However, the impact of such losses on a regional scale remains poorly known. In this study, we use phylogenetic metrics in conjunction with geographical distributions of living reef coral species to model how extinctions are likely to affect evolutionary diversity across different ecoregions. Based on two measures-=-phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic species variability--we highlight regions with the largest losses of evolutionary diversity and hence of potential conservation interest. Notably, the projected loss of evolutionary diversity is relatively low in the most species-rich areas such as the Coral Triangle, while many regions with fewer species stand to lose much larger shares of their diversity. We also suggest that for complex ecosystems like coral reefs it is important to consider changes in phylogenetic species variability; areas with disproportionate declines in this measure should be of concern even if phylogenetic diversity is not as impacted. These findings underscore the importance of integrating evolutionary history into conservation planning for safeguarding the future diversity of coral reefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A limited diversity of character states for reproductive traits and a robust phylogeny make scleractinian corals an ideal model organism with which to explore the evolution of life-history traits. Here, we explore systematic and biogeographical patterns in the reproductive biology of the Scleractinia within the context of a new molecular phylogeny and using reproductive traits from nearly 400 species. Our analyses confirm that coral sexuality is highly conserved, and mode of larval development is relatively plastic. overabundance of species with autotrophic larvae in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic is most likely the result of increased capacity for long-distance dispersal conferred by vertical transmission of symbiotic zooxanthellae. Spawning records from diverse biogeographical regions indicate that multispecies spawning occurs in all speciose coral assemblages. A new quantitative index of spawning synchrony shows peaks at mid-tropical latitudes in the Indo-Pacific, influenced in part by two spawning seasons in many species on equatorial reefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Management strategies for coral reefs are dependant on information about the spatial population structure and connectivity of reef organisms. Genetic tools can reveal important information about population structure, however, this information is lacking for many reef species. We used a mitochondrial molecular marker to examine the population genetic structure and the potential for metapopulation dynamics in a direct developing coral reef fish using 283 individuals from 15 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We employed a hierarchical sampling design to test genetic models of population structure at multiple geographical scales including among regions, among shelf position and reefs within regions. Predictions from island, isolation-by-distance and meta-population models, including the potential for asymmetric migration, local extinction and patterns of re-colonisation were examined. Results: Acanthochromis polyacanthus displayed strong genetic structure among regions (ΦST = 0.81, P < 0.0001) that supported an equilibrium isolation-by-distance model (r = 0.77, P = 0.001). Significant structuring across the continental shelf was only evident in the northern region (ΦST = 0.31, P < 0.001) and no evidence of isolation-by-distance was found within any region. Pairwise ΦST values indicated overall strong but variable genetic structure (mean ΦST among reefs within regions = 0.28, 0.38, 0.41), and asymmetric migration rates among reefs with low genetic structure. Genetic differentiation among younger reefs was greater than among older reefs supporting a meta-population propagule-pool colonisation model. Variation in genetic diversities, demographic expansion and population growth estimates indicated more frequent genetic bottlenecks/founder effects and subsequent population expansion in the central and southern regions compared to the northern one. Conclusion: Our findings provide genetic evidence for meta-population dynamics in a direct developing coral reef fish and we reject the equilibrium island and isolation-by distance models at local spatial scales. Instead, strong non-equilibrium genetic structure appears to be generated by genetic bottlenecks/founder effects associated with population reductions/extinctions and asymmetric migration/(re)-colonisation of such populations. These meta-population dynamics varied across the geographical range examined with edge populations exhibiting lower genetic diversities and higher rates of population expansion than more central populations. Therefore, coral reef species may experience local population reductions/extinctions that promote overall meta-population genetic differentiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]