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Comparing the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services with quantitative scenarios is essential in the decision-making process for a sustainable management of forest landscapes. In Sweden, an intensified forest management will likely be necessary to meet future demands of woody biomass as a source of bioenergy and building materials. At the same time an intensified forest harvest can cause conflicts with goals for biodiversity conservation and reduce the amount of carbon being stored the forest. This study conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate how different types of forest management would affect changes in carbon stock between the above ground biomass in a Swedish forest and the biomass harvested from the forest. Potential conflicts between the harvesting scenarios and the in Sweden critically endangered White-backed Woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos) was also evaluated. The White-backed Woodpecker can be seen as an umbrella species, which means that there are about 200 other endangered plant and animal species that depend on the same kind of forest environments and could therefore be a measure of the state of the forest biodiversity in Sweden. The forest landscape model LANDIS-II was used to simulate vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass while considering disturbances only from harvesting. The simulation had a 100-year timeframe and used initial conditions gathered from a previous case study done in Sweden. The IPCC’s representative concentration pathway 4.5 was used to simulate impact from climate change. A business as usual scenario was simulated along with an intensified harvesting scenario and a conservation scenario to evaluate the impact on carbon sequestration in the aboveground biomass and the impact on the White-backed Woodpecker habitat between different forest management scenarios. The change in the stored and harvested carbon was calculated using the Carbon Stock Change Method and by comparing the initial biomass values with the values from the last ten years of the simulation. A habitat suitability score was made with respect to two key habitat requirements for the White-backed Woodpecker (1) the fraction of deciduous trees in the forest; and (2) the age structure of the forest. From the result it was found that the carbon stock change in the forest was relatively stable for all the simulated scenarios during the 100-year period. The forest carbon stock for the intensified harvesting scenario was 1.04 of the initial carbon stock of the simulation while business as usual was 1.08 and the conservation scenario 1.10. A conservation scenario would therefore be preferable if the forest landscape is to be used mainly as a carbon sink. If biomass extraction is to be increased to meet future demands for bioenergy and woody products, it should be noted that the intensified harvesting led to a 23.6 increase of the initial biomass harvest values while business as usual had a 4.2 increase and the conservation scenario a 3.1 increase. The result also suggests that increasing the proportions of deciduous and old forest to recreate the White-backed Woodpecker’s preferred habitat require considerable time and effort and cannot likely be achieved with the current business as usual scenario nor with the intensified harvesting or conservation scenarios simulated in this study. Thus, a more ambitious and targeted restoration effort is needed if the species is to be preserved. How the forest should be sustainably managed in the future depends on which interests takes priority in decision-making. However, a forest landscape model can provide valuable information throughout the management process so that more informed decisions can be made while also saving time, money and resources better used elsewhere. Att jämföra det framtida tillståndet för naturkapital och ekosystemtjänster med kvantitativa scenarier är väsentligt i beslutsprocessen för en hållbar förvaltning av skogslandskap. I Sverige kommer sannolikt ett intensifierat skogsbruk att bli nödvändigt för att möta framtida krav på biomassa till bioenergi och byggmaterial. Samtidigt kan en intensifierad skogsavverkning orsaka konflikter med målet att bevara biologisk mångfald och öka mängden kol lagrad i skogen. Denna studie genomförde en scenarioanalys för att utvärdera hur olika typer av skogsskötsel påverkar i kolbalansen i en svensk skog och mängden biomassa som avverkas från skogen. Potentiella konflikter mellan skogsskötsel och den i Sverige kritiskt hotade vitryggiga hackspetten (Dendrocopos leucotos) utvärderades också. Den vitryggiga hackspetten kan ses som en paraplyart, vilket innebär att det finns cirka 200 andra hotade växt- och djurarter som är beroende av samma sorts skogsmiljöer, och den kan därför vara ett mått på tillståndet för den skogsknutna biologiska mångfalden i Sverige. Skogslandskapsmodellen LANDIS-II användes för att simulera vegetationsdynamik för artsammansättning, åldersstruktur och biomassa samtidigt som man beaktade störningar endast från avverkning. Simuleringen gjorde för en 100-årsperiod och använde initiala förutsättningar från en tidigare fallstudie gjord i Sverige. IPCC:s representativa koncentrationsväg 4.5 användes för att simulera påverkan från klimatförändringar. Ett "business as usual"-scenario simulerades tillsammans med ett intensifierat avverkningsscenario och ett bevarandescenario för att utvärdera påverkan på kolbindning i den stående biomassan och påverkan på habitat för vitryggig hackspett mellan olika skogsskötselscenarier. Förändringen i det lagrade kolet beräknades med hjälp av ”Carbon Stock Change”-metoden och genom att jämföra de initiala biomassavärdena med värdena från de senaste tio åren av simuleringen. Ett habitatlämplighetspoäng gjordes med avseende på två viktiga habitatkrav för vitryggig hackspett (1) andelen lövträd i skogen; och (2) skogens åldersstruktur. Av resultatet visade det sig att kolförrådets förändring i skogen var relativt stabil för alla de simulerade scenarierna under 100-årsperioden. Skogens kollager för det intensifierade avverkningsscenariot var 1,04 av simuleringens initiala värden medan ”business as usual” var 1,08 och bevarandescenariot 1,10. Ett bevarandescenario vore därför att föredra om skogslandskapet främst ska användas som kolsänka. Om biomassautvinningen ska ökas för att möta framtida krav på bioenergi och träprodukter bör det noteras att den intensifierade avverkningen ledde till en ökning med 23,6 av de initiala skördevärdena för biomassa medan ”business as usual” hade en ökning med 4,2 och bevarandescenariot med 3,1. Resultatet tyder också på att en ökning av andelen lövskog och gammal skog för att återskapa vitryggig hackspetts föredragna habitat kräver avsevärd tid och ansträngning och sannolikt inte kan uppnås med det nuvarande scenariot med ”business as usual” eller med de intensifierade avverknings- eller bevarandescenarierna som simuleras i detta studie. Det behövs alltså en mer ambitiös och målinriktad restaureringsinsats om arten ska bevaras. Hur skogen ska skötas hållbart i framtiden beror på vilka intressen som prioriteras i beslutsfattandet. En skogslandskapsmodell kan dock ge värdefull information under hela skötselprocessen så att mer informerade beslut kan fattas samtidigt som det sparar tid, pengar och resurser som kan användas bättre på annat håll.

A comprehensive assessment of European forest-based biomass harvest potentials, their future utilization and implications on international wood product markets and forest carbon dynamics requires the capability to model forest resource development as well as global markets for wood-based commodities with sufficient geographical and product detail and, most importantly, their interactions. To this aim, we apply a model framework fully integrating a European forest resource model and a global economic forest sector model. In a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, European Union harvests increase seven percent by 2030 compared to past levels (485 million m3 on 2000-2012 average and 517 million m3 in 2030). The subsequent annual carbon stock change is a ten percent reduction by 2030 compared to 2000-2012 average (equal to 119.3 Tg C yr-1), corresponding to decreasing carbon-dioxide removal by the European forests. A second, high mobilization scenario (HM), characterized by the full utilization of the potential wood supply and a doubling of EU wood pellets consumption, was designed to explore potential impacts on forest carbon dynamics and international wood product markets under intensive exploitation of biomass resources. In the HM scenario, harvest increases by 55% (754 million m3 in 2030) compared to the BaU scenario. Fuelwood accounts for this increase in harvest levels as overall competition effects from increased wood pellets consumption outweighs synergies for material uses of wood, resulting in slightly reduced harvests of industrial roundwood. As expected, this increasing harvest level would significantly impair carbon-dioxide forest sequestration from the atmosphere in the medium term (-83% in 2030, compared to 2000-2012 average).

Küresel ısınmanın en önemli nedenlerinden biri atmosferdebiriken karbondioksittir. Atmosferdeki karbondioksitin azaltılmasında ormanlar önemli karasal ekosistemlerdir.Küresel iklim değişikliği ile mücadele kapsamında, ülkeler ormanekosistemlerindeki tutulan karbon miktarlarını ve karbon değişimlerinibelirlemeleri gerekmektedir. Karbon hesaplamalarında doğru sonuçlaraulaşabilmek amacıyla hangi metodun daha güvenilir olduğunun belirlenmesi amacıylabu çalışma yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda değerlendirilen dört yöntemiçerisinden FRA 2010 yönteminin, meşcere karbonunun belirlenmesinde, diğermetodlardan daha yüksek, toprak karbon hesaplanmasında ise en düşük değerverdiği görülmüştür. Sarıalan orman işletme şefliğinde hesap yöntemiylestoklanan karbon miktarı 172,56 ton/ha olarak hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca 1986-95plan dönemi ile 2005-2014 plan dönemleri kıyaslandığında tüm yöntemlerleortalama %15,5 oranında Sarıalan Orman işletme Şefliğinde stoklanan karbonmiktarında artış belirlenmiştir., One of the most important causes of globalwarming is carbon dioxide stored in the atmosphere. Forests are importantterrestrial ecosystems in reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In thecontext of struggle global climate change, countries need to determine theamount of carbon retained and carbon changes in forest ecosystems. This studywas conducted in order to determine which method is more reliable to achieveaccurate results in carbon calculations. Among the four methods evaluated inthe study, FRA 2010 method was found to be higher than other methods indetermination of stand carbon and lowest value in soil carbon calculation. Theamount of carbon stocked by the method of calculation in Sarıalan forest enterprize is calculated as 172,56 tons/ ha. Moreover, when compared to the 1986-95 plan period and the 2005-2014 planperiod, an increase in the amount of carbon stocks stocked in the Sarıalan forest enterprize on average was determinedto be 15.5%.

Made available in DSpace on 2020-12-10T19:45:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2020-02-01 Fundacao de Apoio a Pesquisa do Estado de Mato Grosso Rede ILPF Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (Embrapa) Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the main terrestrial carbon reservoir. The spatial distribution of SOC is mainly regulated by environmental factors and anthropogenic activity. Historically, land-use change has been responsible for much of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. However, carbon storage can be improved through agricultural management, either by increasing carbon inputs through higher crop yields or by delaying the release of carbon into the atmosphere. Therefore, it is essential to correctly choose which cover crops to use and how long these crops will remain in the crop rotation system. In order to clarify these issues, the objective of this work was to evaluate the chemical quality and changes in soil carbon stock between no-tillage and soybean/com crop succession systems and integrated crop-livestock systems. The study was carried out in Querencia (MT), Brazil, located in the Cerrado/Amazon ecotone. The integrated systems were studied between 2007 and 2014. These systems followed annual crop rotation and forage rotation, and were laid out as a consortium or were isolated, with the aim of producing grain and meat. In order to determine soil chemical properties, 170 sampling plots were randomized among the treatments. The highest carbon values were observed in the integrated crop-livestock systems (ICL), probably due to higher inputs of organic residues. Crop rotation with plants of different families allowed better land use and soil exploration. However, integrated production systems comprising longer pasture periods, no-tillage, and soybean/corn crop succession decreased soil carbon. When comparing carbon stocks from 2010 to 2014, only integrated production systems ICL2 and ICL3 were able to increase carbon stocks. Our results highlight the importance of length of growing and correct choice of cover crops in maintaining SOC stocks, and thus provide insights to improve SOC stocks in agricultural land in Brazil's main producing region. Univ Sao Paulo, Luiz de Queiroz Coll Agr, Dept Soil Sci, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, Brazil Univ Fed Mato Grosso UFMT, Inst Ciencias Agr & Ambientais, BR-78557267 Sinop, Brazil Brazilian Agr Res Comporat Embrapa, BR-70770901 Brasilia, DF, Brazil Sao Paulo State Univ Julio de Mesquita Filho, Dept Plant Hlth Rural Engn & Soils, BR-15385000 Ilha Solteira, Brazil Brazilian Agr Res Comporat Embrapa, BR-78550970 Sinop, Brazil Sao Paulo State Univ Julio de Mesquita Filho, Dept Soils & Fertilizers, BR-14884900 Jaboticabal, Brazil Brazilian Agr Res Comporat Embrapa, BR-86001970 Londrina, Parana, Brazil Sao Paulo State Univ Julio de Mesquita Filho, Dept Plant Hlth Rural Engn & Soils, BR-15385000 Ilha Solteira, Brazil Sao Paulo State Univ Julio de Mesquita Filho, Dept Soils & Fertilizers, BR-14884900 Jaboticabal, Brazil Fundacao de Apoio a Pesquisa do Estado de Mato Grosso: FAPEMAT. 0561074/2016

International audience; Robust estimates of CO2 budget, CO2 exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: “top-down” atmospheric inversions and “bottom-up” biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere–biosphere CO2 exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO2 budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO2 budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO2 budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO2 budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO2 budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink–source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top-down and bottom-up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO2 budgets.

[EN] The expected increased share of renewables due to the ongoing energy transition may reduce the estimated potential mitigation effect of wood. Here, we estimated the climate change mitigation effect for five scenarios of wood products use in Europe applying dynamic substitution factors embracing a future energy mix with an increasing share of renewables in accordance with the emission reductions necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. Our innovative modelling approach also included the elimination of eternal recycling loops, the inclusion of more realistic wood use cascading scenarios, and adoption of a more realistic marginal (ceteris paribus) substitution approach. Results show that the mitigation effect derived from material substitution is 33% lower in 2030 than previously predicted, and even 96% lower in 2100, showing its expiry date by the end of the century. Nevertheless, the mitigation effect of wood product use, in addition to mitigation by forests, may represent 3.3% of the European emission reduction targets by 2030., We thank Estelle Vial and AnneLaure Levet for the help provided to adapt the substitution factors from FORMIT project (EU grant no. 311970) to our needs and EOS for providing access to their confidential work. We also thank anonymous reviewers for providing thoughtful comments on the manuscript. This research was supported by the EU through the Marie Curie Initial Training Networks (ITN) action CASTLE, grant agreement no. 316020. The content of this publication reflects only the authors' views, and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Short rotation plantations are often considered as holding vast potentials for future global bioenergy supply. In contrast to raising biomass harvests in forests, purpose‐grown biomass does not interfere with forest carbon (C) stocks. Provided that agricultural land can be diverted from food and feed production without impairing food security, energy plantations on current agricultural land appear as a beneficial option in terms of renewable, climate‐friendly energy supply. However, instead of supporting energy plantations, land could also be devoted to natural succession. It then acts as a long‐term C sink which also results in C benefits. We here compare the sink strength of natural succession on arable land with the C saving effects of bioenergy from plantations. Using geographically explicit data on global cropland distribution among climate and ecological zones, regionally specific C accumulation rates are calculated with IPCC default methods and values. C savings from bioenergy are given for a range of displacement factors (DFs), acknowledging the varying efficiency of bioenergy routes and technologies in fossil fuel displacement. A uniform spatial pattern is assumed for succession and bioenergy plantations, and the considered timeframes range from 20 to 100 years. For many parameter settings—in particular, longer timeframes and high DFs—bioenergy yields higher cumulative C savings than natural succession. Still, if woody biomass displaces liquid transport fuels or natural gas‐based electricity generation, natural succession is competitive or even superior for timeframes of 20–50 years. This finding has strong implications with climate and environmental policies: Freeing land for natural succession is a worthwhile low‐cost natural climate solution that has many co‐benefits for biodiversity and other ecosystem services. A considerable risk, however, is C stock losses (i.e., emissions) due to disturbances or land conversion at a later time., How can spare cropland be used more efficiently in terms of climate change mitigation? By growing short rotation coppice for bioenergy or allowing cropland to revert to its natural state. We show that the more beneficial option depends on the timeframe considered, biophysical conditions in the considered region, upstream emissions of fuel supply, and the efficiency of the particular bioenergy route in displacing fossil fuels.

Up-to-date and accurate information of ecosystem state and functioning becomes ever more critical for decision-making and policy. For complex ecosystems such as forests, these demands can in some cases not be met by field observations only, especially at larger scales. Additionally, methodological requirements include comparability and transparency. To satisfy these needs, models can provide an important supplement or alternative. We examined the validity of the litter decomposition and soil carbon model Yasso07 in Swiss forests based on data on observed decomposition of (i) foliage and fine root litter from sites along a climatic and altitudinal gradient and (ii) of 588 dead trees from 394 plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory. Our objectives were to (i) examine the effect of the application of three different published Yasso07 parameter sets on simulated decay rate; (ii) analyze the accuracy of Yasso07 for reproducing observed decomposition of litter and dead wood in Swiss forests; and (iii) evaluate the suitability of Yasso07 for regional and national scale applications in Swiss forests. From the three examined parameter sets, the set was identified which resulted in the best agreement between Yasso07 results and observed decomposition. No significant differences were found between simulated and observed remaining C in foliage and fine root litter after 10 years and in lying dead trees after 14–21 years. The model overestimated the decomposition of standing dead trees. We concluded that Yasso07 can provide accurate information on temporal changes in C stocks in litter and deadwood in Swiss forests in a transparent manner that is valid for, e.g., reporting purposes under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol.