Climate mitigation by energy and material substitution of wood products has an expiry date.

The expected increased share of renewables due to the ongoing energy transition may reduce the estimated potential mitigation effect of wood. Here, we estimated the climate change mitigation effect for five scenarios of wood products use in Europe applying dynamic substitution factors embracing a future energy mix with an increasing share of renewables in accordance with the emission reductions necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. Our innovative modelling approach also included the elimination of eternal recycling loops, the inclusion of more realistic wood use cascading scenarios, and adoption of a more realistic marginal (ceteris paribus) substitution approach. Results show that the mitigation effect derived from material substitution is 33% lower in 2030 than previously predicted, and even 96% lower in 2100, showing its expiry date by the end of the century. Nevertheless, the mitigation effect of wood product use, in addition to mitigation by forests, may represent 3.3% of the European emission reduction targets by 2030. [Display omitted] • A dynamic modelling approach was used to simulate carbon balance in wood products. • Policies should promote the use of long-lived wood products and cascade chains. • Mitigation effect from substitution 33% lower in 2030 than previously predicted. • Mitigation effect from substitution 96% lower in 2100 than previously predicted. • Mitigation by substitution has an expiry date by the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]