1. Managing Seismic Risk Associated to Development Blasting Using Random Forests Predictive Models Based on Geologic and Structural Rockmass Properties.
- Author
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Goulet, A. and Grenon, M.
- Subjects
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SEISMIC response , *RANDOM forest algorithms , *EARTHQUAKE intensity , *ROCK properties , *DATABASE design - Abstract
As mining activities are expected to develop at greater depths, seismic responses to the blasting of development drift segments are expected to increase and present a greater hazard. A database of 379 development blasts was created for a mining site, recording seismic responses related to these blasts and rock mass structural and geologic properties associated with the drift segment. A random forest, multivariate statistical predictive model was developed with 75% of the drift segments. The model's performance was validated by analyzing 100 drift segments that were not used to create the model. The improved understanding of the variation in the intensity of seismic responses to development blasting through the sum of the seismic moment of the events is a clear benefit of random forest model development for the case study. In addition, the development of the predictive random forest model provides a tool for decision-makers to select performance criteria thresholds that they deem acceptable. The threshold selected would depend on the risk appetite of the decision-makers. The proposed approach provides quantitative data on the distribution of seismic hazards associated with development blasting which managers can rely on. Combining the proposed approach with current seismic protocols used at different mine sites could improve our management of seismic risk associated with development blasting. Using the predictive model for the sector and period studied has shown a potential to increase the accuracy, sensitivity, and precision for anticipating a high-intensity seismic response to a development blast. Highlights: This paper demonstrates the potential benefits of considering geologic and structural properties of the rock mass for managing seismic hazards associated with development blasting. The paper shows how developing predictive random forest models could be used to understand, manage, and communicate the seismic hazard related to blasting of development drift. The random forest models developed with the training data were used to establish thresholds for different risk levels. These thresholds were then applied to the test data to evaluate the actual performance of the models in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, precision, and F1-score at different risk appetite levels. Using the predictive model for the studied period could have increased the accuracy, sensitivity, and precision for anticipating a high-intensity seismic response to a development blast (log (ΣM0)). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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