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Objective: Guidance on how to evaluate accuracy and algorithmic fairness across subgroups is missing for clinical models that flag patients for an intervention but when health care resources to administer that intervention are limited. We aimed to propose a framework of metrics that would fit this specific use case., Methods: We evaluated the following metrics and applied them to a Veterans Health Administration clinical model that flags patients for intervention who are at risk of overdose or a suicidal event among outpatients who were prescribed opioids (N = 405,817): Receiver - Operating Characteristic and area under the curve, precision - recall curve, calibration - reliability curve, false positive rate, false negative rate, and false omission rate. In addition, we developed a new approach to visualize false positives and false negatives that we named 'per true positive bars.' We demonstrate the utility of these metrics to our use case for three cohorts of patients at the highest risk (top 0.5 %, 1.0 %, and 5.0 %) by evaluating algorithmic fairness across the following age groups: <=30, 31-50, 51-65, and >65 years old., Results: Metrics that allowed us to assess group differences more clearly were the false positive rate, false negative rate, false omission rate, and the new 'per true positive bars'. Metrics with limited utility to our use case were the Receiver - Operating Characteristic and area under the curve, the calibration - reliability curve, and the precision - recall curve., Conclusion: There is no "one size fits all" approach to model performance monitoring and bias analysis. Our work informs future researchers and clinicians who seek to evaluate accuracy and fairness of predictive models that identify patients to intervene on in the context of limited health care resources. In terms of ease of interpretation and utility for our use case, the new 'per true positive bars' may be the most intuitive to a range of stakeholders and facilitates choosing a threshold that allows weighing false positives against false negatives, which is especially important when predicting severe adverse events., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

There is a growing need for flexible general frameworks that integrate individual-level data with external summary information for improved statistical inference. External information relevant for a risk prediction model may come in multiple forms, through regression coefficient estimates or predicted values of the outcome variable. Different external models may use different sets of predictors and the algorithm they used to predict the outcome Y given these predictors may or may not be known. The underlying populations corresponding to each external model may be different from each other and from the internal study population. Motivated by a prostate cancer risk prediction problem where novel biomarkers are measured only in the internal study, this paper proposes an imputation-based methodology, where the goal is to fit a target regression model with all available predictors in the internal study while utilizing summary information from external models that may have used only a subset of the predictors. The method allows for heterogeneity of covariate effects across the external populations. The proposed approach generates synthetic outcome data in each external population, uses stacked multiple imputation to create a long dataset with complete covariate information. The final analysis of the stacked imputed data is conducted by weighted regression. This flexible and unified approach can improve statistical efficiency of the estimated coefficients in the internal study, improve predictions by utilizing even partial information available from models that use a subset of the full set of covariates used in the internal study, and provide statistical inference for the external population with potentially different covariate effects from the internal population., (© 2023 The Authors. Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Biometric Society.)

Background and Objective: Causality defined by Granger in 1969 is a widely used concept, particularly in neuroscience and economics. As there is an increasing interest in nonlinear causality research, a Python package with a neural-network-based causality analysis approach was created. It allows performing causality tests using neural networks based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), or Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The aim of this paper is to present the nonlinear method for causality analysis and the created Python package., Methods: The created functions with the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Radial Basis Functions (GRBF) neural network models were tested on simulated signals in two cases: with nonlinear dependency and with absence of causality from Y to X signal. The train-test split (70/30) was used. Errors obtained on the test set were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to determine the presence of the causality. For the chosen model, the proposed method of study the change of causality over time was presented., Results: In the case when X was a polynomial of Y, nonlinear methods were able to detect the causality, while the AR model did not manage to indicate it. The best results (in terms of the prediction accuracy) were obtained for the MLP for the lag of 150 (MSE equal to 0.011, compared to 0.041 and 0.036 for AR and GRBF, respectively). When there was no causality between the signals, none of the proposed and AR models did indicate false causality, while it was detected by GRBF models in one case. Only the proposed models gave the expected results in each of the tested scenarios., Conclusions: The proposed method appeared to be superior to the compared methods. They were able to detect non-linear causality, make accurate forecasting and not indicate false causality. The created package enables easy usage of neural networks to study the causal relationship between signals. The neural-networks-based approach is a suitable method that allows the detection of a nonlinear causal relationship, which cannot be detected by the classical Granger method. Unlike other similar tools, the package allows for the study of changes in causality over time., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Reproductive toxicity endpoints are a significant safety concern in the assessment of the adverse effects of chemicals in drug discovery. Computational models that can accurately predict a chemical's toxic potential are increasingly pursued to replace traditional animal experiments. Thus, ensemble learning models were built to predict the reproductive toxicity of compounds. Our ensemble models were developed using support vector machine, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting methods and 9 molecular fingerprints calculated for a dataset containing 1823 chemicals. The best prediction performance was achieved by the Ensemble-Top12 model, with an accuracy (ACC) of 86.33 %, a sensitivity (SEN) of 82.02 %, a specificity (SPE) of 90.19 %, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.937 in 5-fold cross-validation and ACC, SEN, SPE, and AUC values of 84.38 %, 86.90 %, 90.67 %, and 0.920, respectively, in external validation. We also defined the applicability domain (AD) of the ensemble model by calculating the Tanimoto distance of the training set. Compared with models in existing literature, our ensemble model achieves relatively high ACC, SPE and AUC values. We also identified several fingerprint features related to chemical reproductive toxicity. Considering the performance of model, we recommend using the Ensemble-Top12 model to predict reproductive toxicity in early drug development., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We examined the performance of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and the European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) models for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality prediction in Israeli industrial workers, and developed and validated new risk prediction models for CVD mortality incidence in the same population. Our database was a longitudinal Israeli industrial cohort (CORDIS cohort) of 4809 adult males followed-up for 22years. Performance of the FHS and the SCORE prediction models was analyzed by insertion of the CORDIS cohort measurements to each model separately. The standard prognostic variables and results obtained from the new refined Cox regression analyses were used to construct two new 10- and 20-year CVD mortality risk scoring systems: a modified FHS model (FHS/Cox) and an omnibus model with Cox regression (Omnibus/Cox). The SCORE model of high-risk and low-risk charts yielded 10-year mortality mean risks of 1.12% and 0.64%, respectively, for male subjects aged>30years. The new FHS/Cox and Omnibus/Cox models generated a mean predictive 10-year risk of 1.12% and 1.50%, respectively. The mean 20-year risk predicted by the new FHS/Cox and the Omnibus/Cox models was 2.66% and 3.75%, respectively. Internal validation of both models demonstrated a high and stable area under the receiver operating characteristic curve>0.85. No significant differences were found between the two models. In conclusion, the CVD mortality risk prediction scoring systems tailored for the Israeli workers population demonstrated good performance. Additional studies to externally validate these algorithms will indicate which of these quantitative risk estimation platforms should be used in specific settings., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: In resource-limited settings, where resistance testing is unavailable, confirmatory testing for patients with high viral loads (VL) delays antiretroviral therapy (ART) switches for persons with resistance. We developed a risk score algorithm to predict need for ART change by identifying resistance among persons with persistently elevated VL., Methods: We analyzed data from a Phase IV open-label trial. Using logistic regression, we identified demographic and clinical characteristics predictive of need for ART change among participants with VLs ≥1000 copies/ml, and assigned model-derived scores to predictors. We designed three models, including only variables accessible in resource-limited settings., Results: Among 290 participants with at least one VL ≥1000 copies/ml, 51 % (148/290) resuppressed and did not have resistance testing; among those who did not resuppress and had resistance testing, 47 % (67/142) did not have resistance and 53 % (75/142) had resistance (ART change needed for 25.9 % (75/290)). Need for ART change was directly associated with higher baseline VL and higher VL at time of elevated measure, and inversely associated with treatment duration. Other predictors included body mass index and adherence. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves ranged from 0.794 to 0.817. At a risk score ≥9, sensitivity was 14.7-28.0 % and specificity was 96.7-98.6 %., Conclusions: Our model performed reasonably well and may be a tool to quickly transition persons in need of ART change to more effective regimens when resistance testing is unavailable. Use of this algorithm may result in public health benefits and health system savings through reduced transmissions of resistant virus and costs on laboratory investigations.

Predicting the probability of the occurrence of a binary outcome or condition is important in biomedical research. While assessing discrimination is an essential issue in developing and validating binary prediction models, less attention has been paid to methods for assessing model calibration. Calibration refers to the degree of agreement between observed and predicted probabilities and is often assessed by testing for lack-of-fit. The objective of our study was to examine the ability of graphical methods to assess the calibration of logistic regression models. We examined lack of internal calibration, which was related to misspecification of the logistic regression model, and external calibration, which was related to an overfit model or to shrinkage of the linear predictor. We conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations with a locally weighted least squares regression smoother (i.e., the loess algorithm) to examine the ability of graphical methods to assess model calibration. We found that loess-based methods were able to provide evidence of moderate departures from linearity and indicate omission of a moderately strong interaction. Misspecification of the link function was harder to detect. Visual patterns were clearer with higher sample sizes, higher incidence of the outcome, or higher discrimination. Loess-based methods were also able to identify the lack of calibration in external validation samples when an overfit regression model had been used. In conclusion, loess-based smoothing methods are adequate tools to graphically assess calibration and merit wider application., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Purpose: To evaluate statistical models developed for predicting medal-winning performances for international swimming events and generate updated performance predictions for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. Methods: The performance of 2 statistical models developed for predicting international swimming performances was evaluated. The first model employed linear regression and forecasting to examine performance trends among medal winners, finalists, and semifinalists over an 8-year period. A machine-learning algorithm was used to generate time predictions for each individual event for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The second model was a Bayesian framework and comprised an autoregressive term (the previous winning time), moving average (past 3 events), and covariates for stroke, gender, distance, and type of event (World Championships vs Olympic Games). To examine the accuracy of the predictions from both models, the mean absolute error was determined between the predicted times for the Budapest 2022 World Championships and the actual results from said championships. Results: The mean absolute error for prediction of swimming performances was 0.80% for the linear-regression machine-learning model and 0.85% for the Bayesian model. The predicted times and actual times from the Budapest 2022 World Championships were highly correlated (r =.99 for both approaches). Conclusions: These models, and associated predictions for swimming events at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, provide an evidence-based performance framework for coaches, sport-science support staff, and athletes to develop and evaluate training plans, strategies, and tactics, as well as informing resource allocation to athletes, based on their potential for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Cognitive decline is often considered an inevitable aspect of aging; however, recent research has identified a subset of older adults known as "superagers" who maintain cognitive abilities comparable to those of younger individuals. Investigating the neurobiological characteristics associated with superior cognitive function in superagers is essential for understanding "successful aging." Evidence suggests that the gut microbiome plays a key role in brain function, forming a bidirectional communication network known as the microbiome-gut-brain axis. Alterations in the gut microbiome have been linked to cognitive aging markers such as oxidative stress and inflammation. This study aims to investigate the unique patterns of the gut microbiome in superagers and to develop machine learning-based predictive models to differentiate superagers from typical agers. Methods: We recruited 161 cognitively unimpaired, community-dwelling volunteers aged 60 years or from dementia prevention centers in Seoul, South Korea. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 115 participants were included in the study. Following the removal of microbiome data outliers, 102 participants, comprising 57 superagers and 45 typical agers, were finally analyzed. Superagers were defined based on memory performance at or above average normative values of middle-aged adults. Gut microbiome data were collected from stool samples, and microbial DNA was extracted and sequenced. Relative abundances of bacterial genera were used as features for model development. We employed the LightGBM algorithm to build predictive models and utilized SHAP analysis for feature importance and interpretability. Results: The predictive model achieved an AUC of 0.832 and accuracy of 0.764 in the training dataset, and an AUC of 0.861 and accuracy of 0.762 in the test dataset. Significant microbiome features for distinguishing superagers included Alistipes, PAC001137_g, PAC001138_g, Leuconostoc, and PAC001115_g. SHAP analysis revealed that higher abundances of certain genera, such as PAC001138_g and PAC001115_g, positively influenced the likelihood of being classified as superagers. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate the machine learning-based predictive models using gut-microbiome features can differentiate superagers from typical agers with a reasonable performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neonatal sepsis is a severe medical condition that contributes significantly to neonatal mortality. However, early diagnosis and treatment can help manage the condition effectively. Predictive analytics can assist neonatal sepsis diagnosis and treatment and offer a reassuring solution. This study presents a systematic literature review of various predictive analytics methods for neonatal sepsis diagnosis and treatment. It thoroughly reviews 16 studies between 2014 and 2024, including retrospective and prospective data and utilizing various predictive modeling techniques, such as Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL). The review unveils that the Predictive analytics models can rapidly detect early and late-onset neonatal sepsis. This detection aids clinicians in decision-making and improves healthcare management for neonates, especially in low-resource settings. This study lays the groundwork for utilizing advanced analytics technologies to address challenges in this domain. It inspires further research in innovative and unexplored methods for neonatal sepsis diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The control of quadrotor vehicles under state and parameter uncertainty is a well studied problem that is vitally important to the deployment of these systems under real world conditions. In this article, we propose a linearization‐based extension to nonlinear systems of the existing scenario model predictive control (MPC) framework, which quantifies the impact of uncertainty on the vehicle dynamics through repeated sampling of the uncertainty space. Given the computational costs of such an approach, we also propose two simplifications of the scenario MPC algorithm that are significantly more tractable. In order to evaluate the performance of the algorithms, the specific problem of the control of a bidirectionally actuated quadrotor vehicle is considered. Simulations are carried out for each scenario MPC scheme as well as for a reference deterministic MPC scheme. When a sufficiently large sample count is considered, each of the scenario MPC algorithms achieves safer performance than the deterministic formulation without sacrificing any optimality. Additionally, the approximate solution techniques conclusively outperform the original nonlinear scenario MPC formulation for the same computational cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In South Africa, between 1966 and 2014, there were three kidney transplant eras defined by evolving access to certain immunosuppressive therapies defined as Pre-CYA (before availability of cyclosporine), CYA (when cyclosporine became available), and New-Gen (availability of tacrolimus and mycophenolic acid). As such, factors influencing kidney graft failure may vary across these eras. Therefore, evaluating the consistency and reproducibility of models developed to study these variations using machine learning (ML) algorithms could enhance our understanding of post-transplant graft survival dynamics across these three eras. Methods: This study explored the effectiveness of nine ML algorithms in predicting 10-year graft survival across the three eras. We developed and internally validated these algorithms using data spanning the specified eras. The predictive performance of these algorithms was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC), supported by other evaluation metrics. We employed local interpretable model-agnostic explanations to provide detailed interpretations of individual model predictions and used permutation importance to assess global feature importance across each era. Results: Overall, the proportion of graft failure decreased from 41.5% in the Pre-CYA era to 15.1% in the New-Gen era. Our best-performing model across the three eras demonstrated high predictive accuracy. Notably, the ensemble models, particularly the Extra Trees model, emerged as standout performers, consistently achieving high AUC scores of 0.95, 0.95, and 0.97 across the eras. This indicates that the models achieved high consistency and reproducibility in predicting graft survival outcomes. Among the features evaluated, recipient age and donor age were the only features consistently influencing graft failure throughout these eras, while features such as glomerular filtration rate and recipient ethnicity showed high importance in specific eras, resulting in relatively poor historical transportability of the best model. Conclusions: Our study emphasises the significance of analysing post-kidney transplant outcomes and identifying era-specific factors mitigating graft failure. The proposed framework can serve as a foundation for future research and assist physicians in identifying patients at risk of graft failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pharmacotherapy guidelines for type 2 diabetes (T2D) emphasize patient-centered care, but applying this approach effectively in outpatient practice remains challenging. Data-driven treatment optimization approaches could enhance individualized T2D management, but current approaches cannot account for drug-specific and dose-dependent variations in safety and efficacy. We developed and evaluated an AI Drug mix and dose Advisor (AIDA) for glycemic management, using electronic medical records from 107,854 T2D patients in the SingHealth Diabetes Registry. Given a patient's medical profile, AIDA leverages a predict-then-optimize approach to identify the minimal drug mix and dose changes required to optimize glycemic control, subject to clinical knowledge-based guidelines. On unseen data from large internal, external, and temporal validation sets, AIDA recommendations were estimated to improve post-visit glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) by an average of 0.40–0.68% over standard of care (P < 0.0001). In qualitative evaluations on 60 diverse cases by a panel of three endocrinologists, AIDA recommendations were mostly rated as reasonable and precise. Finally, AIDA's ability to account for drug-dose specifics offered several advantages over competing methods, including greater consistency with practice preferences and clinical guidelines for practical but effective options, indication-based treatments, and renal dosing. As AIDA provides drug-dose recommendations to improve outcomes for individual T2D patients, it could be used for clinical decision support at point-of-care, especially in resource-limited settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transferring and replicating predictive algorithms across healthcare systems constitutes a unique yet crucial challenge that needs to be addressed to enable the widespread adoption of machine learning in healthcare. In this study, we explored the impact of important differences across healthcare systems and the associated Electronic Health Records (EHRs) on machine-learning algorithms to predict mental health crises, up to 28 days in advance. We evaluated both the transferability and replicability of such machine learning models, and for this purpose, we trained six models using features and methods developed on EHR data from the Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust in the UK. These machine learning models were then used to predict the mental health crises of 2907 patients seen at the Rush University System for Health in the US between 2018 and 2020. The best one was trained on a combination of US-specific structured features and frequency features from anonymized patient notes and achieved an AUROC of 0.837. A model with comparable performance, originally trained using UK structured data, was transferred and then tuned using US data, achieving an AUROC of 0.826. Our findings establish the feasibility of transferring and replicating machine learning models to predict mental health crises across diverse hospital systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) provides promising age prediction models. We explored whether the gap between the pre-procedural AI-ECG age and chronological age can predict atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation. We validated a pre-trained residual network-based model for age prediction on four multinational datasets. Then we estimated AI-ECG age using a pre-procedural sinus rhythm ECG among individuals on anti-arrhythmic drugs who underwent de-novo AF catheter ablation from two independent AF ablation cohorts. We categorized the AI-ECG age gap based on the mean absolute error of the AI-ECG age gap obtained from four model validation datasets; aged-ECG (≥10 years) and normal ECG age (<10 years) groups. In the two AF ablation cohorts, aged-ECG was associated with a significantly increased risk of AF recurrence compared to the normal ECG age group. These associations were independent of chronological age or left atrial diameter. In summary, a pre-procedural AI-ECG age has a prognostic value for AF recurrence after catheter ablation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) have a relatively high prevalence among university students. This study aimed to identify independent risk factors for TMD in university students and develop an effective risk prediction model. Methods: This study included 1,122 university students from four universities in Changchun City, Jilin Province, as subjects. Predictive factors were screened by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and the machine learning Boruta algorithm in the training cohort. A multifactorial logistic regression analysis was used to construct a TMD risk prediction model. Internal validation of the model was conducted via bootstrap resampling, and an external validation cohort comprised 205 university students undergoing oral examinations at the Stomatological Hospital of Jilin University. Results: The prevalence of TMD among university students was 44.30%. Ten predictive factors were included in the model, comprising gender, facial cold stimulation, unilateral chewing, biting hard or resilient foods, clenching teeth, grinding teeth, excessive mouth opening, malocclusion, stress, and anxiety. The model demonstrated good predictive ability with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.853, 0.838, and 0.821 in the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and external validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curves demonstrated that the predicted results were consistent with the actual results, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated the model's high clinical utility. Conclusions: An online nomogram of TMD in university students with good predictive performance was constructed, which can effectively predict the risk of TMD in university students. The model provides a useful tool for the early identification and treatment of TMDs in university students, helping clinicians to predict the probability of TMDs in each patient, thus providing more personalized and accurate treatment decisions for patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Machine learning (ML) is extensively employed for forecasting the outcome of various illnesses. The objective of the study was to develop ML based classifiers using a stacking ensemble strategy to predict the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) recovery rate for patients with degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM). Methods: A total of 672 patients with DCM were included in the study and labeled with JOA recovery rate by 1-year follow-up. All data were collected during 2012–2023 and were randomly divided into training and testing (8:2) sub-datasets. A total of 91 initial ML classifiers were developed, and the top 3 initial classifiers with the best performance were further stacked into an ensemble classifier with a supported vector machine (SVM) classifier. The area under the curve (AUC) was the main indicator to assess the prediction performance of all classifiers. The primary predicted outcome was the JOA recovery rate. Results: By applying an ensemble learning strategy (e.g., stacking), the accuracy of the ML classifier improved following combining three widely used ML models (e.g., RFE-SVM, EmbeddingLR-LR, and RFE-AdaBoost). Decision curve analysis showed the merits of the ensemble classifiers, as the curves of the top 3 initial classifiers varied a lot in predicting JOA recovery rate in DCM patients. Conclusions: The ensemble classifiers successfully predict the JOA recovery rate in DCM patients, which showed a high potential for assisting physicians in managing DCM patients and making full use of medical resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on clinical versus statistical prediction has demonstrated that algorithms make more accurate predictions than humans in many domains. Geopolitical forecasting is an algorithm-unfriendly domain, with hard-to-quantify data and elusive reference classes that make predictive model-building difficult. Furthermore, the stakes can be high, with missed forecasts leading to mass-casualty consequences. For these reasons, geopolitical forecasting is typically done by humans, even though algorithms play important roles. They are essential as aggregators of crowd wisdom, as frameworks to partition human forecasting variance, and as inputs to hybrid forecasting models. Algorithms are extremely important in this domain. We doubt that humans will relinquish control to algorithms anytime soon—nor do we think they should. However, the accuracy of forecasts will greatly improve if humans are aided by algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Psychological artificial intelligence (AI) applies insights from psychology to design computer algorithms. Its core domain is decision-making under uncertainty, that is, ill-defined situations that can change in unexpected ways rather than well-defined, stable problems, such as chess and Go. Psychological theories about heuristic processes under uncertainty can provide possible insights. I provide two illustrations. The first shows how recency—the human tendency to rely on the most recent information and ignore base rates—can be built into a simple algorithm that predicts the flu substantially better than did Google Flu Trends's big-data algorithms. The second uses a result from memory research—the paradoxical effect that making numbers less precise increases recall—in the design of algorithms that predict recidivism. These case studies provide an existence proof that psychological AI can help design efficient and transparent algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The current study used behavioral measures of discourse complexity and story recall accuracy in an expository discourse task to distinguish older adults testing within range of cognitive impairment according to a standardized cognitive screening tool in a sample of self-reported healthy older adults. Method: Seventy-three older adults who self-identified as healthy completed an expository discourse task and neuropsychological screener. Discourse data were used to classify participants testing within range of cognitive impairment using multiple machine learning algorithms and stability analysis for identifying reliably predictive features in an effort to maximize prediction accuracy. We hypothesized that a higher rate of pronoun use and lower scores on story recall would best classify older adults testing within range of cognitive impairment. Results: The highest classification accuracy exploited a single variable in a remarkably intuitive way: using 66% story recall as a cutoff for cognitive impairment. Forcing this decision tree model to use more features or increasing its complexity did not improve accuracy. Permutation testing confirmed that the 77% accuracy and 0.18 Brier skill score achieved by the model were statistically significant (p < .00001). Conclusions: These results suggest that expository discourse tasks that place demands on executive functions, such as working memory, can be used to identify aging adults who test within range of cognitive impairment. Accurate representation of story elements in working memory is critical for coherent discourse. Our simple yet highly accurate predictive model of expository discourse provides a promising assessment for easy identification of cognitive impairment in older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Prostate mpMRI is currently the most widely used image diagnosis approach to detect prostate cancer, while the PI-RADS system was developed to standardize and improve the accuracy of suspicious lesion identification on MRI. However, there still remain several limitations including inter-individual inconsistencies and naked-eye insufficiency. This study aims to apply AI technology to image interpretation to enhance diagnostic efficiency and explore the use of T2-weighted image-based stimulated biopsy in predicting prostate cancer (PCa). Using 820 lesions from The Cancer Imaging Archive database and 83 lesions from Hong Kong Queen Mary Hospital, we constructed 18 machine-learning models based on three algorithms and conducted both internal and external validation. We found that the logistic regression-based model provides additional diagnostic value to the PI-RADS in predicting PCa. Background: Currently, prostate cancer (PCa) prebiopsy medical image diagnosis mainly relies on mpMRI and PI-RADS scores. However, PI-RADS has its limitations, such as inter- and intra-radiologist variability and the potential for imperceptible features. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a machine learning model based on radiomics analysis of MRI T2-weighted (T2w) images for predicting PCa in prebiopsy cases. Method: A retrospective analysis was conducted using 820 lesions (363 cases, 457 controls) from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) Database for model development and validation. An additional 83 lesions (30 cases, 53 controls) from Hong Kong Queen Mary Hospital were used for independent external validation. The MRI T2w images were preprocessed, and radiomic features were extracted. Feature selection was performed using Cross Validation Least Angle Regression (CV-LARS). Using three different machine learning algorithms, a total of 18 prediction models and 3 shape control models were developed. The performance of the models, including the area under the curve (AUC) and diagnostic values such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV), were compared to the PI-RADS scoring system for both internal and external validation. Results: All the models showed significant differences compared to the shape control model (all p < 0.001, except SVM model PI-RADS+2 Features p = 0.004, SVM model PI-RADS+3 Features p = 0.002). In internal validation, the best model, based on the LR algorithm, incorporated 3 radiomic features (AUC = 0.838, sensitivity = 76.85%, specificity = 77.36%). In external validation, the LR (3 features) model outperformed PI-RADS in predictive value with AUC 0.870 vs. 0.658, sensitivity 56.67% vs. 46.67%, specificity 92.45% vs. 84.91%, PPV 80.95% vs. 63.64%, and NPV 79.03% vs. 73.77%. Conclusions: The machine learning model based on radiomics analysis of MRI T2w images, along with simulated biopsy, provides additional diagnostic value to the PI-RADS scoring system in predicting PCa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a consensus-based model predictive control (Cb-MPC) scheme is proposed to control the active power and voltage at all nodes in grid-connected active distribution networks (ADNs) with multiple distributed energy resources (DERs). The proposed design methodology is based on a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) model of an ADN which accounts for both the internal and external interactions among the control loops of the DERs. To achieve the control objective, each DER unit is equipped with a controller–observer system. In particular, the observer implements the consensus algorithm to estimate the collective system state by exchanging data only with its neighbors. The scope of the controller is to solve the MPC optimal problem based on its collective state estimate, and, due to the presence of an integral term in the control action, it is robust against any unknown scenarios of the ADN, which are represented by uncertainty in the model parameters. The results of numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in the presence of unknown changes in the operating conditions of the ADN and of communication using a sample and hold function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To develop a machine learning-based prediction model for identifying hyperuricemic participants at risk of developing gout. Methods A retrospective nationwide Israeli cohort study used the Clalit Health Insurance database of 473 124 individuals to identify adults 18 years or older with at least two serum urate measurements exceeding 6.8 mg/dl between January 2007 and December 2022. Patients with a prior gout diagnosis or on gout medications were excluded. Patients' demographic characteristics, community and hospital diagnoses, routine medication prescriptions and laboratory results were used to train a risk prediction model. A machine learning model, XGBoost, was developed to predict the risk of gout. Feature selection methods were used to identify relevant variables. The model's performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) and precision-recall AUC. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of gout among hyperuricemic patients. Results Among the 301 385 participants with hyperuricemia included in the analysis, 15 055 (5%) were diagnosed with gout. The XGBoost model had a ROC-AUC of 0.781 (95% CI 0.78–0.784) and precision-recall AUC of 0.208 (95% CI 0.195–0.22). The most significant variables associated with gout diagnosis were serum uric acid levels, age, hyperlipidemia, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and diuretic purchases. A compact model using only these five variables yielded a ROC-AUC of 0.714 (95% CI 0.706–0.723) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 95%. Conclusions The findings of this cohort study suggest that a machine learning-based prediction model had relatively good performance and high NPV for identifying hyperuricemic participants at risk of developing gout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Machine learning techniques (MLT) build models to detect complex patterns and solve new problems using big data. Aim: The present study aims to create a prediction interface for mothers breastfeeding exclusively for the first 6 months using MLT. Method: All mothers who had babies aged 6–24 months between 15.09.2021 and 15.12.2021 and to whom the surveys could be delivered were included. 'Personal Information Form' created by the researchers was used as a data collection tool. Data from 514 mothers participating in the study were used for MLT. Data from 70% of mothers were used for educational purposes, and a prediction model was created. The data obtained from the remaining 30% of the mothers were used for testing. Results: The best MLT algorithm for predicting exclusive breastfeeding for the first 6 months was determined to be the Random Forest Classifier. The top five variables affecting the possibility of mothers breastfeeding exclusively for the first 6 months were as follows: "the mother not having any health problems during pregnancy," "there were no people who negatively affected the mother's morale about breastfeeding," "the amount of water the mother drinks in a day," "thinking that her milk supply is insufficient," "having no problems breastfeeding the baby". Conclusions: Using created prediction model may allow early identification of mothers with a risk of not breastfeeding their babies exclusively for the first 6 months. In this way, mothers in the risk group can be closely monitored in the early period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preoperative planning has gained popularity in the management of reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA). Commercially available software provides 3-dimensional segmentation of scapula and humerus, as well as providing arc of motion for the implanted articulation and identifying potential areas of bony impingement. However, these software algorithms use a fixed scapula model, disregarding the preoperative clinical range of motion (C-ROM) of the patient, be it glenohumeral or scapulothoracic, as well as any soft tissue parameters. This study aims to compare the ROM based on preoperative planning software by using the implant position from postoperative computed tomography (CT) images (predicted ROM using preoperative planning software [P-ROM]), with the C-ROM assessed at minimum of 2 years of follow-up. Preoperative and postoperative CT scans of 46 patients who underwent primary RSA between 2017 and 2021 were analyzed. At the postoperative 2-year review, each patient was assessed for active ROM. Implant size and position based on operative notes and postoperative CT scans were used to replicate the performed surgery in the planning software. Abduction, flexion, and external rotation motion were simulated and recorded. The relationship between C-ROM and P-ROM was investigated using linear regression analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, and paired t -test. P-ROM was significantly lower than C-ROM at 2 years postoperatively (P <.001), with an average discrepancy of 78° in abduction, 47° in flexion, and 37° in external rotation (C-ROM: abduction 155° ± 21° [80°-180°]; flexion 160° ± 17° [90°-180°]; external rotation 52° ± 14° [10°-80°] vs. P-ROM: abduction 77° ± 13° [53°-107°]; flexion 112° ± 25° [67°-180°]; external rotation 15° ± 21° [0°-79°]). The linear regression analysis indicated weak agreement between C-ROM and P-ROM (abduction R2 = 0.03; flexion R2 = 0.01; external rotation R2 = 0.04). Pearson's correlation coefficients revealed weak correlations of −0.18, 0.03, and 0.21 for abduction, flexion, and external rotation, respectively. P-ROM based on preoperative software in its current form does not allow the prediction of the C-ROM at 2 years of follow-up for patients undergoing RSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of the ablation rate of silicone rubber-based composites is of great significance to accelerate the development of flexible thermal protection materials. Herein, a method which combines uniform design experimentation, active learning, and virtual sample generation was proposed to establish a prediction model of the mass ablation rate based on a small dataset. Briefly, a small number of sample points were collected using uniform design experimentation, which were marked to construct the initial dataset and primitive model. Then, data points were acquired from the sample pool and iterated using various integrated algorithms through active learning to update the above dataset and model. Finally, a large number of virtual samples were generated based on the optimal model, and a further optimized prediction model was achieved. The results showed that after introducing 300 virtual samples, the average percentage error of the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) prediction model on the test set decreased to 3.1%, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method in building prediction models based on a small dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms have been proposed for expensive optimization problems. However, each surrogate model has its own characteristics and different applicable situations, which caused a serious challenge for model selection. To alleviate this challenge, this paper proposes an adaptive surrogate-assisted particle swarm optimization (ASAPSO) algorithm by effectively combining global and local surrogate models, which utilizes the uncertainty level of the current population state to evaluate the approximation ability of the surrogate model in its predictions. In ASAPSO, the transformation between local and global surrogate models is controlled by an adaptive Gaussian distribution parameter with a gauge of the advisability to improve the search process with better local exploration and diversity in uncertain solutions. Four expensive optimization benchmark functions and an airfoil aerodynamic real-world engineering optimization problem are utilized to validate the effectiveness and performance of ASAPSO. Experimental results demonstrate that ASAPSO has superiority in terms of solution accuracy compared with state-of-the-art algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on predicting road passenger probability and optimizing taxi driving routes based on trajectory big data. By utilizing clustering algorithms to identify key passenger points, a method for calculating and predicting road passenger probability is proposed. This method calculates the passenger probability for each road segment during different time periods and uses a BiLSTM neural network for prediction. A passenger-seeking recommendation model is then constructed with the goal of maximizing passenger probability, and it is solved using the NSGA-II algorithm. Experiments are conducted on the Chengdu taxi trajectory dataset, using MSE as the metric for model prediction accuracy. The results show that the BiLSTM prediction model improves prediction accuracy by 9.67% compared to the BP neural network and by 6.45% compared to the LSTM neural network. The proposed taxi driver passenger-seeking route selection method increases the average passenger probability by 18.95% compared to common methods. The proposed passenger-seeking recommendation framework, which includes passenger probability prediction and route optimization, maximizes road passenger efficiency and holds significant academic and practical value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migraine is one of the most common neurological disorders, characterized by moderate-to-severe headache episodes. Autonomic nervous system (ANS) alterations can occur at phases of migraine attack. This study investigates patterns of ANS changes during the pre-ictal night of migraine, utilizing wearable biosensor technology in ten individuals. Various physiological, activity-based, and signal processing metrics were examined to train predictive models and understand the relationship between specific features and migraine occurrences. Data were filtered based on specified criteria for nocturnal sleep, and analysis frames ranging from 5 to 120 min were used to improve the diversity of the training sample and investigate the impact of analysis frame duration on feature significance and migraine prediction. Several models, including XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting), HistGradientBoosting (Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting), Random Forest, SVM, and KNN, were trained on unbalanced data and using cost-sensitive learning with a 5:1 ratio. To evaluate the changes in features during pre-migraine nights and nights before migraine-free days, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed. The results showed that the features of electrodermal activity, skin temperature, and accelerometer exhibited the highest F-statistic values and the most significant p-values in the 5 and 10 min frames, which makes them particularly useful for the early detection of migraines. The generalized prediction model using XGBoost and a 5 min analysis frame achieved 0.806 for accuracy, 0.638 for precision, 0.595 for recall, and 0.607 for F1-score. Despite identifying distinguishing features between pre-migraine and migraine-free nights, the performance of the current model suggests the need for further improvements for clinical application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trip purpose is a meaningful aspect of travel behaviour for the understanding of urban mobility. However, it is non-trivial to automatically obtain trip purposes. On one hand, trip purposes are naturally diverse and complicated, but the available predictive data sources are limited in real-world scenarios. On the other hand, since trip purpose labeling is costly and the development levels of cities are unbalanced, it is infeasible to access large-scale labeled data in less developed cities to train advanced prediction models. To narrow the gaps, this article presents A new Graph Embedding Network and active Domain Adaptation based framework (AGENDA) that only requires open data sources and is capable of predicting in both label-rich cities and label-scarce cities. Specifically, in label-rich source cities, we first use the vehicle's GPS trajectory and open POI check-ins to augment trip contexts. Then we establish a supervised graph embedding network with two attention mechanisms to extract the passenger's latent activity semantics and a classifier to predict trip purpose. To enable the prediction in label-scarce target cities, we further devise an active domain adaptation framework, in which adversarial domain adaptation is used to transfer the source-learned knowledge, and active learning is used to integrate human intelligence in the model training. A group of experiments are conducted with real-world datasets in Beijing and Shanghai. Evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly outperforms existing trip purpose prediction algorithms, and could make accurate trip purpose prediction in label-scarce cities with much fewer labeling efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autonomous vehicles have limited computational resources and thus require efficient control systems. The cost and size of sensors have limited the development of self-driving cars. To overcome these restrictions, this study proposes an efficient framework for the operation of vision-based automatic vehicles; the framework requires only a monocular camera and a few inexpensive radars. The proposed algorithm comprises a multi-task UNet (MTUNet) network for extracting image features and constrained iterative linear quadratic regulator (CILQR) and vision predictive control (VPC) modules for rapid motion planning and control. MTUNet is designed to simultaneously solve lane line segmentation, the ego vehicle's heading angle regression, road type classification, and traffic object detection tasks at approximately 40 FPS for 228 × 228 pixel RGB input images. The CILQR controllers then use the MTUNet outputs and radar data as inputs to produce driving commands for lateral and longitudinal vehicle guidance within only 1 ms. In particular, the VPC algorithm is included to reduce steering command latency to below actuator latency, preventing performance degradation during tight turns. The VPC algorithm uses road curvature data from MTUNet to estimate the appropriate correction for the current steering angle at a look-ahead point to adjust the turning amount. The inclusion of the VPC algorithm in a VPC-CILQR controller leads to higher performance on curvy roads than the use of CILQR alone. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed autonomous driving system, which does not require high-definition maps, can be applied in current autonomous vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: A dynamic molecular biomarker that can identify early efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy remains an unmet clinical need. Here we evaluate if a novel circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) assay, xM, used for treatment response monitoring (TRM), that quantifies changes in ctDNA tumor fraction (TF), can predict outcome benefits in patients treated with ICI alone or in combination with chemotherapy in a real-world (RW) cohort. Methods: This retrospective study consisted of patients with advanced cancer from the Tempus de-identified clinical genomic database who received longitudinal liquid-based next-generation sequencing. Eligible patients had a blood sample ≤ 40 days prior to the start of ICI initiation and an on-treatment blood sample 15–180 days post ICI initiation. TF was calculated via an ensemble algorithm that utilizes TF estimates derived from variants and copy number information. Patients with molecular response (MR) were defined as patients with a ≥ 50% decrease in TF between tests. In the subset of patients with rw-imaging data between 2 and 18 weeks of ICI initiation, the predictive value of MR in addition to rw-imaging was compared to a model of rw-imaging alone. Results: The evaluable cohort (N = 86) was composed of 14 solid cancer types. Patients received either ICI monotherapy (38.4%, N = 33) or ICI in combination with chemotherapy (61.6%, N = 53). Patients with MR had significantly longer rw-overall survival (rwOS) (hazard ratio (HR) 0.4, P = 0.004) and rw-progression free survival (rwPFS) (HR 0.4, P = 0.005) than patients with molecular non-response (nMR). Similar results were seen in the ICI monotherapy subcohort; HR 0.2, P = 0.02 for rwOS and HR 0.2, P = 0.01 for rwPFS. In the subset of patients with matched rw-imaging data (N = 51), a model incorporating both MR and rw-imaging was superior in predicting rwOS than rw-imaging alone (P = 0.02). Conclusions: xM used for TRM is a novel serial quantitative TF algorithm that can be used clinically to evaluate ICI therapy efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hospital-acquired pressure injuries (HAPIs) have a major impact on patient outcomes in intensive care units (ICUs). Effective prevention relies on early and accurate risk assessment. Traditional risk-assessment tools, such as the Braden Scale, often fail to capture ICU-specific factors, limiting their predictive accuracy. Although artificial intelligence models offer improved accuracy, their "black box" nature poses a barrier to clinical adoption. Objective: To develop an artificial intelligence–based HAPI risk-assessment model enhanced with an explainable artificial intelligence dashboard to improve interpretability at both the global and individual patient levels. Methods: An explainable artificial intelligence approach was used to analyze ICU patient data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care. Predictor variables were restricted to the first 48 hours after ICU admission. Various machine-learning algorithms were evaluated, culminating in an ensemble "super learner" model. The model's performance was quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve through 5-fold cross-validation. An explainer dashboard was developed (using synthetic data for patient privacy), featuring interactive visualizations for in-depth model interpretation at the global and local levels. Results: The final sample comprised 28 395 patients with a 4.9% incidence of HAPIs. The ensemble super learner model performed well (area under curve = 0.80). The explainer dashboard provided global and patient-level interactive visualizations of model predictions, showing each variable's influence on the risk-assessment outcome. Conclusion: The model and its dashboard provide clinicians with a transparent, interpretable artificial intelligence–based risk-assessment system for HAPIs that may enable more effective and timely preventive interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multiple organ failure/dysfunction syndrome (MOF/MODS) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among severe trauma patients. Current clinical practices entail monitoring physiological measurements and applying clinical score systems to diagnose its onset. Instead, we aimed to develop an early prediction model for MOF outcome evaluated soon after traumatic injury by performing machine learning analysis of genome-wide transcriptome data from blood samples drawn within 24 h of traumatic injury. We then compared its performance to baseline injury severity scores and detection of infections. Methods: Buffy coat transcriptome and linked clinical datasets from blunt trauma patients from the Inflammation and the Host Response to Injury Study ("Glue Grant") multi-center cohort were used. According to the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 141 adult (age ≥ 16 years old) blunt trauma patients (excluding penetrating) with early buffy coat (≤ 24 h since trauma injury) samples were analyzed, with 58 MOF-cases and 83 non-cases. We applied the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms to select features and develop models for MOF early outcome prediction. Results: The LASSO model included 18 transcripts (AUROC [95% CI]: 0.938 [0.890–0.987] (training) and 0.833 [0.699–0.967] (test)), and the XGBoost model included 41 transcripts (0.999 [0.997–1.000] (training) and 0.907 [0.816–0.998] (test)). There were 16 overlapping transcripts comparing the two panels (0.935 [0.884–0.985] (training) and 0.836 [0.703–0.968] (test)). The biomarker models notably outperformed models based on injury severity scores and sex, which we found to be significantly associated with MOF (APACHEII + sex—0.649 [0.537–0.762] (training) and 0.493 [0.301–0.685] (test); ISS + sex—0.630 [0.516–0.744] (training) and 0.482 [0.293–0.670] (test); NISS + sex—0.651 [0.540–0.763] (training) and 0.525 [0.335–0.714] (test)). Conclusions: The accurate assessment of MOF from blood samples immediately after trauma is expected to aid in improving clinical decision-making and may contribute to reduced morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Moreover, understanding the molecular mechanisms involving the transcripts identified as important for MOF prediction may eventually aid in developing novel interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To investigate how successfully the classification of patients with and without dental anomalies was achieved through four experiments involving different dental anomalies. Methods: Lateral cephalometric radiographs (LCRs) from 526 individuals aged between 14 and 22 years were included. Four experiments involving different dental anomalies were created. Experiment 1 included the total dental anomaly group and control group (CG). Experiment 2 only had dental agenesis and a CG. Experiment 3 consisted of only palatally impacted canines and the CG. Experiment 4 comprised patients with various dental defects (transposition, hypodontia, agenesis-palatally affected canine, peg-shaped laterally, hyperdontia) and the CG. Twelve sella measurements and assessments of the ponticulus posticus and posterior arch deficiency were given as input. The target was to distinguish between anomalies and controls. The CatBoost algorithm was applied to classify patients with and without dental anomalies. Results: In order from lowest to highest, the predictive accuracies of the experiments were as follows: experiment 4 < experiment 2 < experiment 3 < experiment 1. The sella area (SA) (mm2) was the most important variable in experiment 1. The most significant variable in prediction model of experiment 2 was sella height posterior (SHP) (mm). Sella area (SA) (mm2) was again the most relevant variable in experiment 3. The most important variable in experiment 4 was sella height median (SHM) (mm). Conclusions: Every prediction model from the four experiments prioritized different variables. These findings may suggest that related research should focus on specific traits from a diagnostic perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Determining brain atrophy is crucial for the diagnosis of neurodegenerative diseases. Despite detailed brain atrophy assessments using three-dimensional (3D) T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, their practical utility is limited by cost and time. This study introduces deep learning algorithms for quantifying brain atrophy using a more accessible two-dimensional (2D) T1, aiming to achieve cost-effective differentiation of dementia of the Alzheimer's type (DAT) from cognitively unimpaired (CU), while maintaining or exceeding the performance obtained with T1-3D individuals and to accurately predict ADspecific atrophy similarity and atrophic changes [W-scores and Brain Age Index (BAI)]. Methods: Involving 924 participants (478 CU and 446 DAT), our deep learning models were trained on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) volumes from 2D T1 images and compared with 3D T1 images. The performance of the models in differentiating DAT from CU was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Pearson's correlation analyses were used to evaluate the relations between 3D T1 and 2D T1 measurements of cortical thickness and CSF volumes, AD-specific atrophy similarity, W-scores, and BAIs. Results: Our deep learning models demonstrated strong correlations between 2D and 3D T1-derived CSF volumes, with correlation coefficients r ranging from 0.805 to 0.971. The algorithms based on 2D T1 accurately distinguished DAT from CU with high accuracy (area under the curve values of 0.873), which were comparable to those of algorithms based on 3D T1. Algorithms based on 2D T1 image-derived CSF volumes showed high correlations in AD-specific atrophy similarity (r = 0.915), W-scores for brain atrophy (0.732 ≤ r ≤ 0.976), and BAIs (r = 0.821) compared with those based on 3D T1 images. Conclusion: Deep learning-based analysis of 2D T1 images is a feasible and accurate alternative for assessing brain atrophy, offering diagnostic precision comparable to that of 3D T1 imaging. This approach offers the advantage of the availability of T1-2D imaging, as well as reduced time and cost, while maintaining diagnostic precision comparable to T1-3D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS) diagnosis is complicated by limited genetic testing at scale, low prevalence, and normal QT corrected interval in patients with high-risk genotypes. We developed a deep learning approach combining electrocardiogram (ECG) waveform and electronic health record data to assess whether patients had pathogenic variants causing LQTS. We defined patients with high-risk genotypes as having ≥1 pathogenic variant in one of the LQTS-susceptibility genes. We trained the model using data from United Kingdom Biobank (UKBB) and then fine-tuned in a racially/ethnically diverse cohort using Mount Sinai BioMe Biobank. Following group-stratified 5-fold splitting, the fine-tuned model achieved area under the precision-recall curve of 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28–0.29) and area under the receiver operating curve of 0.83 (0.82–0.83) on independent testing data from BioMe. Multimodal fusion learning has promise to identify individuals with pathogenic genetic mutations to enable patient prioritization for further work up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to develop prognostic models for predicting the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with COVID-19 and compare their performance with the Respiratory rate-OXygenation (ROX) index. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data collected between March 2020 and August 2021 at three hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. ICU patients aged 18 years and older with a diagnosis of COVID-19 were screened. The exclusion criteria were patients who received IMV within the first 24 h of ICU admission, pregnancy, clinical decision for minimal end-of-life care and missing primary outcome data. Clinical and laboratory variables were collected. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to select predictor variables. Models were based on the lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and lowest AIC with significant p values. Assessment of predictive performance was done for discrimination and calibration. Areas under the curves (AUC)s were compared using DeLong's algorithm. Models were validated externally using an international database. Results: Of 656 patients screened, 346 patients were included; 155 required IMV (44.8%), 191 did not (55.2%), and 207 patients were male (59.8%). According to the lowest AIC, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, heart rate, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), temperature, respiratory effort signals, and leukocytes were identified as predictors of IMV at hospital admission. According to AIC with significant p values, SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals were the best predictors of IMV; odds ratios (95% confidence interval): 1.46 (1.07–2.05), 0.81 (0.72–0.90), 9.13 (3.29–28.67), respectively. The ROX index at admission was lower in the IMV group than in the non-IMV group (7.3 [5.2–9.8] versus 9.6 [6.8–12.9], p < 0.001, respectively). In the external validation population, the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROX index was 0.683 (accuracy 63%), the AIC model showed an AUC of 0.703 (accuracy 69%), and the lowest AIC model with significant p values had an AUC of 0.725 (accuracy 79%). Conclusions: In the development population of ICU patients with COVID-19, SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals predicted the need for IMV better than the ROX index. In the external validation population, although the AUCs did not differ significantly, the accuracy was higher when using SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals compared to the ROX index. This suggests that these variables may be more useful in predicting the need for IMV in ICU patients with COVID-19. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05663528. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we evaluated and forecasted the cumulative opportunities for residents to access radiotherapy services in Cali, Colombia, while accounting for traffic congestion, using a new people-centred methodology with an equity focus. Furthermore, we identified 1–2 optimal locations where new services would maximise accessibility. We utilised open data and publicly available big data. Cali is one of South America's cities most impacted by traffic congestion. Methodology: Using a people-centred approach, we tested a web-based digital platform developed through an iterative participatory design. The platform integrates open data, including the location of radiotherapy services, the disaggregated sociodemographic microdata for the population and places of residence, and big data for travel times from Google Distance Matrix API. We used genetic algorithms to identify optimal locations for new services. We predicted accessibility cumulative opportunities (ACO) for traffic ranging from peak congestion to free-flow conditions with hourly assessments for 6–12 July 2020 and 23–29 November 2020. The interactive digital platform is openly available. Primary and secondary outcomes: We present descriptive statistics and population distribution heatmaps based on 20-min accessibility cumulative opportunities (ACO) isochrones for car journeys. There is no set national or international standard for these travel time thresholds. Most key informants found the 20-min threshold reasonable. These isochrones connect the population-weighted centroid of the traffic analysis zone at the place of residence to the corresponding zone of the radiotherapy service with the shortest travel time under varying traffic conditions ranging from free-flow to peak-traffic congestion levels. Additionally, we conducted a time-series bivariate analysis to assess geographical accessibility based on economic stratum. We identify 1–2 optimal locations where new services would maximize the 20-min ACO during peak-traffic congestion. Results: Traffic congestion significantly diminished accessibility to radiotherapy services, particularly affecting vulnerable populations. For instance, urban 20-min ACO by car dropped from 91% of Cali's urban population within a 20-min journey to the service during free-flow traffic to 31% during peak traffic for the week of 6–12 July 2020. Percentages represent the population within a 20-min journey by car from their residence to a radiotherapy service. Specific ethnic groups, individuals with lower educational attainment, and residents on the outskirts of Cali experienced disproportionate effects, with accessibility decreasing to 11% during peak traffic compared to 81% during free-flow traffic for low-income households. We predict that strategically adding sufficient services in 1–2 locations in eastern Cali would notably enhance accessibility and reduce inequities. The recommended locations for new services remained consistent in both of our measurements. These findings underscore the significance of prioritising equity and comprehensive care in healthcare accessibility. They also offer a practical approach to optimising service locations to mitigate disparities. Expanding this approach to encompass other transportation modes, services, and cities, or updating measurements, is feasible and affordable. The new approach and data are particularly relevant for planning authorities and urban development actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: As the treatment modalities for spinal metastatic tumors continue to evolve, the goal of improving the quality of life of patients with spinal metastases becomes more easily attainable. The best patient care is a combination of multiple treatment modalities, surgical and nonsurgical, that maximizes the advantages of each modality and should be individualized according to their unique clinical presentation, pathology, and life expectancy. In this review article, we highlight various new treatment options that have shown promising improvements in patient outcomes. Notably, we discuss the potential clinical applications of AI and NGS in the treatment of spinal metastases. Spinal metastases occur in up to 40% of patients with cancer. Of these cases, 10% become symptomatic. The reported incidence of spinal metastases has increased in recent years due to innovations in imaging modalities and oncological treatments. As the incidence of spinal metastases rises, so does the demand for improved treatments and treatment algorithms, which now emphasize greater multidisciplinary collaboration and are increasingly customized per patient. Uniquely, we discuss the potential clinical applications of AI and NGS in the treatment of spinal metastases. Material and Methods: A PubMed search for articles published from 2000 to 2023 regarding spinal metastases and artificial intelligence in healthcare was completed. After screening for relevance, the key findings from each study were summarized in this update. Results: This review summarizes the evidence from studies reporting on treatment modalities for spinal metastases, including minimally invasive surgery (MIS), external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS), CFR-PEEK instrumentation, radiofrequency ablation (RFA), next-generation sequencing (NGS), artificial intelligence, and predictive models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In clinical practice, challenges in identifying patients with uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTIs) at risk of antibiotic nonsusceptibility may lead to inappropriate prescribing and contribute to antibiotic resistance. We developed predictive models to quantify risk of nonsusceptibility to 4 commonly prescribed antibiotic classes for uUTI, identify predictors of nonsusceptibility to each class, and construct a corresponding risk categorization framework for nonsusceptibility. Methods Eligible females aged ≥12 years with Escherichia coli– caused uUTI were identified from Optum's de-identified Electronic Health Record dataset (1 October 2015–29 February 2020). Four predictive models were developed to predict nonsusceptibility to each antibiotic class and a risk categorization framework was developed to classify patients' isolates as low, moderate, and high risk of nonsusceptibility to each antibiotic class. Results Predictive models were developed among 87 487 patients. Key predictors of having a nonsusceptible isolate to ≥3 antibiotic classes included number of previous UTI episodes, prior β-lactam nonsusceptibility, prior fluoroquinolone treatment, Census Bureau region, and race. The risk categorization framework classified 8.1%, 14.4%, 17.4%, and 6.3% of patients as having isolates at high risk of nonsusceptibility to nitrofurantoin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, β-lactams, and fluoroquinolones, respectively. Across classes, the proportion of patients categorized as having high-risk isolates was 3- to 12-fold higher among patients with nonsusceptible isolates versus susceptible isolates. Conclusions Our predictive models highlight factors that increase risk of nonsusceptibility to antibiotics for uUTIs, while the risk categorization framework contextualizes risk of nonsusceptibility to these treatments. Our findings provide valuable insight to clinicians treating uUTIs and may help inform empiric prescribing in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calcification has significant influence over cardiovascular diseases and interventions. Detailed characterization of calcification is thus desired for predictive modeling, but calcium deposits on cardiovascular structures are still often manually reconstructed for physics-driven simulations. This poses a major bottleneck for large-scale adoption of computational simulations for research or clinical use. To address this, we propose an end-to-end automated image-to-mesh algorithm that enables robust incorporation of patient-specific calcification onto a given cardiovascular tissue mesh. The algorithm provides a substantial speed-up from several hours of manual meshing to ~1 min of automated computation, and it solves an important problem that cannot be addressed with recent template-based meshing techniques. We validated our final calcified tissue meshes with extensive simulations, demonstrating our ability to accurately model patient-specific aortic stenosis and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement. Our method may serve as an important tool for accelerating the development and usage of personalized cardiovascular biomechanics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The probing depth of the transient electromagnetic method (TEM) refers to the depth range at which the underground conductivity changes can be effectively detected. It typically ranges from tens of meters to several kilometers and is influenced by factors such as instrument parameters and the conductivity of the subsurface structure. Rapid and accurate probing depth is useful for the selection of appropriate inversion parameters and improving survey accuracy. However, mainstream methods suffer from issues such as low computational precision, large uncertainties, or high computational requirements, making them unsuitable for processing massive airborne electromagnetic data. In this study, we propose a prediction model based on deep learning that can directly compute the probing depth from the TEM responses, and its effectiveness and accuracy are validated through synthetic models and field measurements. We compared the performance of classic deep learning models, including CNN, RESNET, and RNN, and found that RNN performed the best overall on both synthetic and field data. Furthermore, we apply this algorithm to deep learning-based ATEM inversion by constraining the one-dimensional resistivity model depths in the training set, to reduce the non-uniqueness of the inversion, accelerate the convergence, and improve its prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies an LSTM-based adaptive transmission method for a 360-degree video and proposes a non-uniform encoding transmission strategy based on LSTM. Our goal is to maximize the user's video experience by dynamically dividing the 360-degree video into tiles of different numbers and sizes, and selecting different bitrates for each tile. This aims to reduce buffering events and video jitter. To determine the optimal number and size of tiles at the current moment, we constructed a dual-layer stacked LSTM network model. This model predicts, in real-time, the number, size, and bitrate of the tiles needed for the next moment of the 360-degree video based on the distance between the user's eyes and the screen. In our experiments, we used an exhaustive algorithm to calculate the optimal tile division and bitrate selection scheme for a 360-degree video under different network conditions, and used this dataset to train our prediction model. Finally, by comparing with other advanced algorithms, we demonstrated the superiority of our proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been growing attention to multi-class classification problems, particularly those challenges of imbalanced class distributions. To address these challenges, various strategies, including data-level re-sampling treatment and ensemble methods, have been introduced to bolster the performance of predictive models and Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms in scenarios where excessive level of imbalance is present. While most research and algorithm development have been focused on binary classification problems, in health informatics there is an increased interest in the field to address the problem of multi-class classification in imbalanced datasets. Multi-class imbalance problems bring forth more complex challenges, as a delicate approach is required to generate synthetic data and simultaneously maintain the relationship between the multiple classes. The aim of this review paper is to examine over-sampling methods tailored for medical and other datasets with multi-class imbalance. Out of 2,076 peer-reviewed papers identified through searches, 197 eligible papers were chosen and thoroughly reviewed for inclusion, narrowing to 37 studies being selected for in-depth analysis. These studies are categorised into four categories: metric, adaptive, structure-based, and hybrid approaches. The most significant finding is the emerging trend toward hybrid resampling methods that combine the strengths of various techniques to effectively address the problem of imbalanced data. This paper provides an extensive analysis of each selected study, discusses their findings, and outlines directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Oral aripiprazole exhibits favorable clinical efficacy and safety in the suppression of tics in children and adolescents with tic disorders. This study aims to evaluate and compare the cost-effectiveness of high-dose and low-dose aripiprazole in children and adolescents with tic disorders from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted on 146 patients with tic disorders, of whom 144 completed EQ-5D-Y and YGTSS. Four models were built to convert YGTSS onto EQ-5D-Y utility using two mapping algorithms. We constructed a decision tree model containing efficacy and safety to compare the cost-effectiveness of high-dose and low-dose aripiprazole based on our mapping function. Results: The GLM with model 1 (YGTSS total tic scores) was selected as the preferred function in our decision tree model. The base case cost-effectiveness analysis showed that compared to low-dose aripiprazole, high-dose aripiprazole improves effectiveness by 0.001QALYs and increases the overall cost by $197.99, resulting in an ICER of $174339.22 per QALY, which exceeds three times the gross domestic product per capita. Hence, high-dose aripiprazole is not likely to be a cost-effective option for child patients with tic disorders. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that these results is robust. Conclusion: On the basis of currently available data, low-dose aripiprazole may be a safe, effective, and economical dosage for children and adolescents with tic disorders. Limitations: The main limitation of our study is the lack of utility directly used for cost-effectiveness analysis. We obtained the utility of patients with tic disorders indirectly by the mapping function. This may introduce some bias and uncertainty. And it is a limitation to use the direct medical costs of Germany in our model. Although we converted it to the equivalent value of China using purchasing power parities, caution should be exercised when interpreting the results of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing prevalence of myopia worldwide presents a significant public health challenge. A key strategy to combat myopia is with early detection and prediction in children as such examination allows for effective intervention using readily accessible imaging technique. To this end, we introduced DeepMyopia, an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled decision support system to detect and predict myopia onset and facilitate targeted interventions for children at risk using routine retinal fundus images. Based on deep learning architecture, DeepMyopia had been trained and internally validated on a large cohort of retinal fundus images (n = 1,638,315) and then externally tested on datasets from seven sites in China (n = 22,060). Our results demonstrated robustness of DeepMyopia, with AUCs of 0.908, 0.813, and 0.810 for 1-, 2-, and 3-year myopia onset prediction with the internal test set, and AUCs of 0.796, 0.808, and 0.767 with the external test set. DeepMyopia also effectively stratified children into low- and high-risk groups (p < 0.001) in both test sets. In an emulated randomized controlled trial (eRCT) on the Shanghai outdoor cohort (n = 3303) where DeepMyopia showed effectiveness in myopia prevention compared to NonCyc-based model, with an adjusted relative reduction (ARR) of −17.8%, 95% CI: −29.4%, −6.4%. DeepMyopia-assisted interventions attained quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.53, 1.04) per person and avoided blindness years of 13.54 (95% CI: 9.57, 18.83) per 1 million persons compared to natural lifestyle with no active intervention. Our findings demonstrated DeepMyopia as a reliable and efficient AI-based decision support system for intervention guidance for children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most challenging aspect of utilizing model predictive controllers (MPCs), particularly those involving power electronic applications, is the extraction of a model that accurately represents the behavior of the studied system. Concerning the use of power electronic applications, as long as an MPC is used, adjusting the controller parameters brings difficulties. In addition, as the number of elements increases, it becomes harder to get the best control law out of the model. To do away with the need for model extraction, this study presents an offline data‐driven approach in conjunction with the MPC that can optimally adjust the MPC parameters based on the iterative feedback tuning (IFT) algorithm called the iterative feedback predictive controller (IFPC). The proposed method eliminates concerns regarding selecting an optimal number of algorithm iterations, thereby reducing operating costs, by introducing a modified IFT called feedback‐based IFPC (FIFPC) while simultaneously achieving optimal MPC parameters. The proposed method is applied to a constant voltage load (CVL) connected less‐than‐ideal buck converter, that is, one with perturbed filter elements and variable loads. A robust stability analysis (RSA) is performed under normal operating conditions to investigate the robustness behavior of the proposed controller. Simulation studies are presented to evaluate the proposed controller under different scenarios, such as step and abrupt load changes and measurement noise, compared with the well‐known model‐based and data‐enabled predictive controller (DeePC) approaches in the MATLAB/Simulink environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]