1. Energy Subsidies Reform in Jordan : Welfare Implications of Different Scenarios
- Author
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Atamanov, Aziz, Jellema, Jon, and Serajuddin, Umar
- Subjects
GROWTH RATES ,PRICE SUBSIDIES ,DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRICITY ,COMMUNICATION ,FOOD PRICE ,APPROACH ,COMMODITIES ,ELECTRICITY PRICE ,INFLATION ,PRICE SUPPORT ,COMMODITY ,SOLAR POWER ,WATER ,HEAVY OIL ,SAFETY NETS ,INCOME ,ELECTRICITY TARIFFS ,DIESEL ,SALE ,WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ,FOOD PRICES ,OIL ,PRICE OF GASOLINE ,OPTIONS ,INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ,SHARES ,DISTRIBUTION ,GAS ,ELECTRIC POWER ,BALANCE ,GOODS ,GINI COEFFICIENT ,PRODUCER PRICES ,PETROLEUM GAS ,GOVERNMENT BUDGET ,POWER STATIONS ,PRICE INCREASES ,TARIFF ,GAS SUPPLY ,SUBSIDIES ,INCOMES ,OIL PRODUCTS ,PRICES ,PETROLEUM ,WELFARE ,CONSUMPTION LEVELS ,FUEL OIL ,ELASTICITY ,GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES ,ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ,CONSUMPTION ,GDP PER CAPITA ,PRICING ,PRODUCER PRICE ,PRICE INCREASE ,POWER PRODUCERS ,DEVELOPMENT POLICY ,TRENDS ,DEBT ,PRODUCTS ,MARKET ,SUPPLY ,PRICE CHANGES ,ADVERSE IMPACT ,PETROLEUM SECTOR ,GENERATION ,PETROLEUM PRICE ,INCOME GROUP ,AGRICULTURE ,PRICE CHANGE ,DEMAND ,PRICE ELASTICITY ,CONSUMERS ,MARKET PRICES ,DEMAND ELASTICITY ,FUEL ,PRODUCT ,ELECTRICITY ,GDP ,ENERGY ,ELECTRICITY GENERATION ,FUEL PRICES ,POLITICAL UNREST ,KILOWATT-HOUR ,RETAIL PRICE ,POLITICAL ECONOMY ,EXCHANGE ,FINANCIAL RISKS ,PRODUCERS OF PETROLEUM ,PRODUCER PRICE INCREASE ,OUTPUT ,OIL PRICES ,ENERGY PRICES ,ELECTRICITY SYSTEM ,CURRENCY ,PRICE ,SOCIAL SAFETY NETS ,SPREAD ,PRICE ADJUSTMENTS ,FUELS ,SOCIAL PROTECTION ,POWER ,INTERNATIONAL MARKET ,PRIVATIZATION ,GASOLINE ,KEROSENE ,EXPENDITURES ,COMMODITY PRICES ,NATURAL GAS ,FUTURE ,GASOLINE PRICE ,ELECTRICITY TARIFF ,DATA AVAILABILITY ,HEAVY FUEL OIL ,INTEREST ,AVAILABILITY ,ENERGY PRODUCTS ,INPUTS ,FISCAL CONSOLIDATION ,SUBSIDY ,SAVINGS ,PETROLEUM PRICES ,POWER COMPANY ,RETAIL ,SHARE ,GASOLINE CONSUMPTION ,POWER MIX ,PETROLEUM PRODUCTS ,EXPENDITURE - Abstract
Facing a fiscal crisis, Jordan initiated substantial petroleum subsidy reforms in 2012. The government has also long contemplated how to cut electricity subsidies, which surpass the fiscal burdens imposed by the petroleum subsidies. This paper estimates the impacts of the 2012 petroleum subsidies reform on household welfare and government revenues. It also simulates the distributional and fiscal impacts from ending subsidies in the electricity sector, where the pricing structure is more complex than petroleum prices. The paper looks at the direct and indirect impacts of reform. Moreover, the paper discusses the political economy considerations of reform. While the full removal of petroleum subsidies would have increased poverty, the compensatory cash transfer program the government instituted is estimated to have fully offset the negative impact for the poorer population. The impact of reforms in the electricity sector will depend significantly on the implementation method chosen. A flat increase of tariffs toward cost recovery will put a huge burden on the poorest households. However, a progressive increase in tariffs will generate substantial savings for the government, even with compensatory mechanisms to mitigate the strong negative impact on the vulnerable population. The immediate compensation of the losers from reform appears to be a crucial factor in the successful implementation of reforms in Jordan.
- Published
- 2015