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This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) presents the World Bank Group (WBG) program and the associated results framework for Lebanon for the period FY17-FY22. In a fragile and conflict-prone environment, this CPF aims at mitigating the immediate, and potentially long-lasting impact of the Syria crisis on Lebanon, while strengthening state institutions, addressing existing vulnerabilities, and bolstering efforts on longer term development challenges, all through interventions that foster inclusion and shared prosperity. The CPF will work through two focus areas as a way to renew the social contract between the state and the citizens: (i) expand access to and quality of service delivery; and (ii) expand economic opportunities and increase human capital. Through these two focus areas, the WBG will help Lebanon mitigate the economic and social impact of the Syria crisis, safeguard the country’s development gains, and enhance the prospects for stability and development in the coming years. The CPF will contribute to strengthening the relationship between the state and its citizens, a critical ingredient for peace and stability. The CPF will contribute to strengthening the relationship between the state and its citizens, a critical ingredient for peace and stability. The CPF benefited from a series of stakeholder consultations, including those held in connection with the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) and the WBG Gender Strategy.

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) is designed to assess the key constraints and opportunities facing Mozambique as it strives to sustain robust growth and macroeconomic stability while accelerating poverty reduction and promoting greater economic inclusiveness. The SCD is organized into six chapters. Chapter two describes the evolution of poverty and inequality, explores their regional and demographic dimensions, and identifies strategies for accelerating poverty reduction. Chapter three analyzes key economic constraints and opportunities, identifying the drivers of recent growth, describing developments in the real sector and assessing emerging challenges associated with the rise of the extractive industries. Chapter four examines the inclusiveness of growth, presenting an in-depth analysis of the labor market, the social sectors and the ongoing urbanization process. Chapter five discusses fiscal, institutional, political, social and environmental risks to the sustainability of growth and poverty reduction. Chapter six completes the analysis by identifying a set of priority objectives for accelerating progress on the World Bank’s twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) placed access to basic services at the center of international development in 2016-2030. Out of 17 goals, five address the access of poor people to basic services: to health in SDG3, to education in SDG4, and SDG5, to water and sanitation in SDG6, to energy in SDG7, and to urban services in SDG11. The mutually reinforcing relationship between electricity access, economic development, and poverty reduction is well established. The SDGs framed access to basic services as a matter of dignity. The SDG synthesis report promotes self-reliance of developing countries rather than just the North-to-South aid, as the challenge of poverty and exclusion extends beyond charity to the hungry and the most deprived. Directly or otherwise, access to electricity results in progress in all dimensions of human welfare and development including education, health care, access to water, essential communications and information as well as simple financial transactional services, income generation, and environmental sustainability. Also, a positive relationship can be seen between electricity access and the human development index (HDI).

The pattern of debt flows to peripheral European Monetary Union members seems puzzling: they are mostly indirect and channeled through the large countries of the European Monetary Union. This paper examines to what extent the introduction of the euro and the elimination of the intra-area currency risk can explain this puzzle. A three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with endogenous portfolio choice and two currencies is developed. In the equilibrium, the core members of the European Monetary Union emerge as the main group of lenders to the peripheral European Monetary Union members. Outside lenders are pushed from the periphery debt markets because of currency risk. The model generates a pattern of debt flows consistent with the data despite the absence of any exogenous frictions or market segmentations.

The paper investigates the relevance of the exchange rate on the reaction function of the central banks of 24 emerging market economies for the period 2000Q1 to 2015Q2. This is done by first employing fixed-effects ordinary least squares and then system generalized method of the moments techniques. Under fixed effects, the exchange rate is found to be an important determinant in the reaction function of emerging market economies. Allowing for the endogeneity of inflation, output gap, and exchange rate, the exchange rate remains a positive and significant determinant, but less quantitatively relevant across inflation-targeting countries. When the sample is partitioned into targeting and nontargeting countries, the exchange rate remains relevant in the reaction function of the latter group. The results remain robust to splitting the sample at the time of the financial crisis of 2007–09 and suggest that, after the crisis, the central banks of emerging market economies responded only to inflation movements in the interest rate reaction function.

Over the past decade, donors of foreign aid quadrupled their annual contributions to trust funds at the World Bank. This earmarking of contributions to donors' preferred recipient countries and issues has raised concerns about the alignment of trust funds with the performance-based allocations of aid by the International Development Association, the World Bank's concessional lending arm, and raises the question of the role of this new "multi-bi" aid channel. This study finds that the cross-country allocations of aggregate trust fund aid are poverty- and policy-selective. In this respect, they are much more similar to allocations from the International Development Association than from bilateral donors. The allocations of trust fund types that are more closely controlled by donor countries—recipient-executed and single-donor trust funds—are more strongly related to the strategic interests of donor countries than trust fund aid in general. Trust funds for health and education aid are poverty selective and positively correlated with the World Bank's assessment of the quality of countries' sector policies, while environmental trust funds are neither poverty selective nor correlated with the assessed quality of countries' environmental policies. Overall, the evidence indicates that multi-bi funds administered by the World Bank do not undermine the International Development Association’s allocation criteria.

Central America is undergoing an important transition, with urban populations increasingat accelerated speeds, bringing pressing challenges as well as opportunities to boost sustained,inclusive and resilient growth. Today, 59 percent of Central America's population lives in urban areas, but it is expected that within the next generation 7 out of 10 people will live in cities, equivalent to adding 700,000 new urban residents every year. At current rates of urbanization, the region’s urban population will double in size by 2050, welcoming over 25 million new urban dwellers, calling for better infrastructure, higher coverage and quality of urban services and greater employment opportunities. As larger numbers of people concentrate in urban areas, Central American governments at the national and local levels face both opportunities and challenges to ensure the prosperity of their country's present and future generations.

The new Country Partnership Framework (CPF or framework) presents the engagement of the World Bank Group (WBG) in Sri Lanka over the next four years (fiscal years 2017-20 (FY17–20)). The CPF aims to support the achievement of some of the government’s medium-term goals in areas that are critical for reducing extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity, and that are consistent with the WBG’s comparative advantage. Notably, the CPF provides the framework for engagement in several key policy areas. Following presidential and parliamentary elections in 2015, the new coalition government, the National Government of Consensus, has set out an ambitious vision for Sri Lanka. It focuses on supporting job creation in the private sector, advancing the country’s global integration, improving governance, enhancing human development and social inclusion, and balancing development with environmental conservation. The vision has been captured in the Prime Minister’s Economic Policy Statement of November 5, 2015. The new government’s development agenda is well aligned with the findings of the 2015 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Sri Lanka. The SCD identified the most critical constraints and opportunities facing Sri Lanka in accelerating progress toward the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. The analysis concluded that key priorities are to address the country’s fiscal, competitiveness, and inclusion challenges, as well as cross-cutting governance and social, economic, and environmental sustainability challenges. The CPF is anchored in this analysis.

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is a constitutionally recognized semiautonomous region in northern Iraq. Its government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), based in Erbil, has the right, under the Iraqi constitution of 2005, to exercise legislative, executive, and judicial powers according to the constitution, except in what is listed therein as exclusive powers of the federal authorities. The Iraqi constitution defines the Kurdistan Region as a federal entity of Iraq. KRG has a parliamentary democracy with a regional assembly that consists of 111 seats. KRI has been largely immune to the insecurity and conflict witnessed elsewhere in Iraq, especially following the 2003 Iraq War. KRG is facing a wide range of immediate and medium to longer-term challenges that are intrinsically linked to the overall macroeconomic situation of Iraq as well as the regional and global environment. The immediate challenge consists in coping with (a) the deep fiscal crisis, and (b) the security and social problems brought about by the conflict with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group and the resulting influx of Syrian refugees and Iraqi Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). These challenges are clearly immediate priorities for the KRG, and will bear significant repercussions nationally and internationally if inadequately addressed. The medium to longer-term challenges pertain to moderating dependence on the oil sector and transforming the KRI economy into a diversified one that supports private sector-led economic growth and job creation in a sustainable manner.

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Montene gro covers the period from July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2020 (fiscal years 2016-2020). This CPF builds on the results and lessons of the previous World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), which originally covered the period July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2014, and was subsequently extended to June 30, 2015.The one-year CPS) extension was intended to provide greater clarity on the country’s medium-term macro-fiscal framework as a basis for the new CPF, and to give additional time to make progress on improving environmental management, a key pillar of the CPS. The new CPF seeks to address the top priorities identified by the recently completed Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) as those that Montenegro needs to most urgently tackle to advance in its path towards shared prosperity and sustainable development. The CPF will selectively support Montenegro’s development agenda outlined in the Montenegro Development Directions (MDD) 2015-2018, Economic Reform program (ERP) 2015-2017 and the Montenegro European Union (EU) Accession Program 2014-17. The WBG strategy will continue to support, and be aligned with, Montenegro’s EU accession and integration process. The formulation of the new CPF benefitted from extensive consultations held in October 2015 and in January and March 2016, and involving several line ministries, municipalities, civil society, academia, and private sector across various regions of the country, as well as representatives of the international development community. The resulting proposal for engagement under the FY16-20 CPF reflects a broad consensus of a wide range of stakeholders and a shared understanding of development priorities and challenges facing the country.

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) explores how Uzbekistan can consolidate its recent achievements and accelerate progress on the twin goals of eradicating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. The SCD is organized into five chapters. Chapter one frames the issues of poverty reduction and shared prosperity, and situates them in the context of Uzbekistan’s recent development. It reviews the status and drivers of progress in these areas, identifies analytical constraints, and highlights areas for further study. Chapter two describes the necessary conditions for sustaining rapid economic growth and robust quality job creation. It underscores the importance of expanding private-sector participation and investment in key economic sectors. Chapter three considers how a well-functioning labor market and access to essential public services can enhance the inclusiveness of growth. Chapter four analyzes threats to the sustainability of Uzbekistan’s recent gains over both the medium and the long term. Chapter five concludes by examining the constraints to growth and development revealed by the analysis, and it proposes a framework for prioritizing policy actions designed to address them.

This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) covers the five-year period FY16-20. Anchored in the government’s medium-term development plan as outlined in a January 2015 Cabinet of Ministers Program of Action, it also reflects the analysis and recommendations of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) 2015 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Uzbekistan and the lessons learned from the Completion Report of the previous CPS. The CPF’s objectives and program, which focus on developing the conditions for faster job creation, are consistent with the WBG’s twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The Uzbekistan Systemic Country Diagnostic (SCD) identified ten priority areas that would need to be addressed to eliminate poverty, boost shared prosperity, and enable Uzbekistan to reach upper middle-income status. The government’s strategic objectives are for Uzbekistan to achieve upper middleincome status by 2030, implying income growth averaging 6 percent annually, and in particular to create 500,000 jobs annually. Building country systems for statistical, fiduciary, safeguard, and statistical capacity underlie the foundation of this CPF. The CPF program will remain flexible as circumstances change and new opportunities may arise.

The World Bank Group has come a long way in supporting structural reforms in its member countries. The most remarkable feature of its long 35 years and continuing journey has been its ability to listen, learn and adjust over time. It learnt relatively quickly that reform ownership is a necessary requirement for countries to support and sustain reforms. At the same time, it realized that reform implementation critically depends on credible institutions and good governance, which are frequently missing in its member countries, particularly the low-income ones. It also noted that over time the structure of reforms for promoting growth and development evolves, reflecting both changes in internal country conditions and a changing global environment. These important realizations are reflected in the evolution of the World Bank Group’s policies and practice for supporting structural reforms, and help sustain a culture of learning from experience.

Haiti's economic development has been held back by a history of civil conflict and violence. With donor assistance declining from its exceptional levels following the 2010 earthquake, and concessional financing growing scarce, Haiti must learn to live with tighter budget constraints. At the same time, the United Nations forces that have provided security in the past decade are scaling down. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the conditions under which public spending can minimize violent conflict, and draws possible lessons for Haiti. Drawing on an empirical analysis of 148 countries over the period 1960-2009, simulations for Haiti suggest that increases in military spending would be associated with a higher risk of conflict, an observation in line with Haiti's own history. Greater welfare expenditure (education, health, and social assistance), by contrast, would be associated with lower risk of conflict.

This program document presents the World Bank Group (WBG) FY17-22 Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Bulgaria. The timing of the new CPF follows the preparation of theSystematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) prepared in FY15, and informs the areas and objectives ofthe CPF in support of the WBG’s twin goals to reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity1 for the bottom forty percent of the population. The CPF proposes to focus WBG support in selective areas aligned with the SCD, in response to clear Government demand, supporting and complementing Bulgaria’s European Union agenda, and reflecting the WBG’s comparative advantage. In addition, the CPF applies two key principles for engagement, including: (i) realism, recognizing that the WBG plays a selective role and that it will contribute most effectively by being strategic and catalytic in supporting key elements of Bulgaria’s development agenda, and (ii) scalability, creating opportunities to engage in dialogue and analytical work that may create space for broader engagement in areas where there is potential for transformational impact, including IFC investments in private sector development. Government demand is focused primarily on the agenda to strengthen public institutions, notably in the financial and energy sectors. The WBG will complement that focus by investing its own resources to stay engaged in the inclusion agenda, which is critical to the WBG twin goals. CPF proposes to cover a six year period, with Progress Learning Reviews (PLRs) will facilitate a more proactive approach to monitoring results and ensure close alignment with the country-led strategy.

This report provides a review of the Armenian mining sector, and assesses its potential to contribute to sustainable economic growth and development. Based on the findings, it provides recommendations for initiatives and actions for the future development of the sector. The report was produced in the period October 2015 to April 2016. It was commissioned by the World Bank with the aim to assist the Armenian government to gain a better understanding of key social and environmental challenges and future opportunities for the Armenian Mining Sector; and to support the development of a minerals strategy which is line with international good practices and which contributes to sustainable development. The findings are based on: desktop reviews of existing documents; a large number of meetings and interviews with affected and interested stakeholders; field work performed in the main mining districts of Armenia; stakeholder workshops. Comments, suggestions and corrections on a draft version of this report has been provided by representatives of the GoA, and the World Bank. Further, oversight and feedback was continuously provided by representatives of the World Bank.

In most countries, the private sector owns the vast majority of the buildings and a considerable portion of the infrastructure at risk. However, most investment in disaster risk management is made by the public sector, with the private sector lagging far behind. The situation represents missed opportunities for businesses to capture not only higher levels of the direct benefits of disaster risk management, but also a broader set of co-benefits to themselves and society as a whole. These co-benefits include ways of lowering production costs, improving the health of workers, and contributing to general economic stability. Ironically, many of these co-benefits are more tangible and immediate than ordinary disaster risk management benefits, which may not appear until a disaster has struck many years after the investment has been made. This study analyzes several important facets of private sector investment in disaster risk management, primarily from an economic perspective. It is intended as a first step toward promoting greater investment in disaster risk management by identifying potential co-benefits, explaining why they are not always pursued, and suggesting ways to integrate them into private sector decision-making. The latter includes government incentives, justified on the grounds that many private sector investments have extensive co-benefits, many of which pay dividends to society as a whole.

Over the past quarter century, Vietnam’s agricultural sector has made enormous progress. Vietnam’s performance in terms of agricultural yields, output, and exports, however, has been more impressive than its gains in efficiency, farmer welfare, and product quality. Vietnamese agriculture now sits at a turning point. The agricultural sector now faces growing domestic competition - from cities, industry, and services - for labor, land, and water. Rising labor costs are beginning to inhibit the sector’s ability to compete globally as a low cost producer of bulk undifferentiated commodities. Going forward, Vietnam’s agricultural sector needs to generate more from less. That is, it must generate more economic value - and farmer and consumer welfare - using less natural and human capital and less harmful intermediate inputs. The strategic shift was highlighted in the government’s agricultural restructuring plan (ARP), approved by the Prime Minister in June 2014. The ARP defines sector goals in terms of the triple bottom line of economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable development. It lays out expected changes in the roles and spending patterns of the government in the sector and discusses the need to work with other stakeholders, including in the private sector. It calls for an ambitious and ongoing process of learning and experimentation, and several potential directions are offered in this report.

This paper examines the spatial organization of jobs in Kampala, the capital city of Uganda, and applies the Lucas and Rossi-Hansberg (2002) model to explain the observed patterns in terms of the agglomeration forces and the commuting costs of workers. The paper suggests that: (i) Economic activities are concentrated in the downtown -- beyond which employment is spatially dispersed. (ii) Geographically weighted regressions identify five potential subcenters in 2011; however, none of these contribute significantly to employment. When explaining the variation in employment density across localities in Kampala, the research highlights that (i) density falls by 23.5 percent per kilometer increase in distance from the nearest potential subcenter; (ii) an increase in local production externalities of 10 percent increases density by 3.7 percent; and (iii) production externalities in Kampala's potential subcenters are extremely weak to have any significant impact even on nearby tracts.

Although the effects of insecurity are believed to be important, these have never been directly measured. Previous estimates of the costs of conflict have only captured the joint effect of violence and insecurity. The distinction is important for understanding the origins of the costs and for policy design. Spatially disaggregated measures of insecurity are created based on the spatial-temporal variation in the placement of violence. These are used to generate the first estimates of the relative causal contributions of the risk and experience of violence. The article also provides the first micro-data based counterpart to the cross-country literature on the costs of conflict.

Land rights and the systems that administer them can vary significantly across the world and within countries (World Bank 2003). For a number of reasons, land rights may be unclear or insecure. Securing land rights plays an important role in driving economic growth and poverty reduction. In recent years there has been increasing awareness of the relevance of land tenure issues to food security, climate change, rapid urbanization, informality, and indigenous peoples’ rights. The World Bank Group has a long history of developing and implementing projects aimed at securing land rights through a variety of interventions. This note synthesizes cross-cutting findings from 14 Independent Evaluation Group assessments of land administration projects that the World Bank has supported from 1998 to 2014. The project-level assessments reviewed for this report contain a wealth of information about how the Bank Group approached different problems related to strengthening land administration systems in diverse environments. This information is relevant to both land administration specialists and experts in other fields whose work is impacted by land tenure issues.

This Systematic County Diagnostics is organized into six parts. The first part presents a brief overview of the country’s recent socio-political and economic context. The second part examines the links between poverty, income distribution and economic growth, through the labor market, against the background of large changes in international capital flows and the unfinished structural reform agenda. The third part, examines the sustainability and vulnerability of the current growth model. The fourth part examines the structural constraints to sustainable and inclusive growth and poverty reduction, while the fifth part reviews the governance and the rule of law foundations. The assessment of each constraint is followed by a description of what the Government of Montenegro (GoM) is doing to address the issue. The sixth part examines priorities and opportunities.

Bleak short-term economic outlook raises the risk that social and environmental achievements may not be sustained. The changed economic circumstances have exposed shortcomings in Brazil’s development model, epitomized by the struggle to achieve a sustainable fiscal policy. Against this background, some Brazilians are now asking whether the gains of the past decade might have been an illusion, created by the commodity boom, but unsustainable in today’s less forgiving international environment. Brazil thus finds itself at an important juncture and, to a certain extent, the policy course set today will determine whether the country can sustain the gains of the past and return to a path of solid, inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth. This Systematic Country Diagnostic offers a contribution to the debate about Brazil’s future development.

An efficient and transparent regulatory framework governing international trade is a necessary condition for countries to realize the benefits of international trade. Over the last decade, Lao PDR has been deepening its economic ties with the global economy through the formal accession to the WTO in 2013. At the regional level, the country is committed to be full member of the ASEAN Economic Community. These agreements entailed profound changes to Lao PDR’s regulatory framework governing international trade. This report provides an overview of the incidence on NTMs on import flows in Lao PDR before and after WTO accession and identifies lingering regulatory hurdles that may still hamper the ability of the country to reap the gains of a deeper integration. Employing detailed and comparable NTM information, this note characterizes the changes in the trade related regulatory framework in Lao PDR and compares the current scheme with that of other countries in Asia. The report also combines econometric estimations of Ad-Valorem Equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs with qualitative information collected through fieldwork to identify priority measure to streamline. This report is organized as follows. Section two discusses main conceptual issues and presents the data and metrics to examine the role of NTMs in import flows. Section three, describes the trade incidence of NTMs and compares it with similar countries and with the situation prior to WTO accession. Section four combines an econometric technique with qualitative information to discuss the stringency of NTMs. Section five presents some concluding remarks and provides some recommendation for reform.

Transformational engagements are a critical pillar of the World Bank Group’s strategy for achieving its twin goals of extreme poverty elimination and shared prosperity. This learning product uses evaluative evidence from the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) to understand the mechanisms and conditions for transformational engagements and the implications for the World Bank Group if it seeks to rely on such engagements to more effectively pursue its goals.

The WBG’s Colombia Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) analyzed key constraints and opportunities that will impact Colombia’s development in the context of three defining country characteristics. They include uneven territorial development, a long standing armed conflict and a growth process led by extractive industries. The Colombia Country Partnership Framework (CPF) proposes to address these complex development challenges with a flexible, six-year (FY16-21) engagement that builds on the strong and trusted client relationship established over recent years. On the basis of client country demand, the development challenges highlighted in the SCD, and World Bank Group (WBG) comparative advantage, the CPF focuses on eight critical objectives to guide WBG engagement over the CPF period. These objectives are organized within three pillars of engagement: (a) fostering balanced territorial development; (b) enhancing social inclusion and mobility through improved service delivery; and (c) supporting fiscal sustainability and productivity. Cutting across all pillars, the CPF aims to ‘assist in constructing the peace’ in response to Colombia’s historic opportunity to reach a Peace Accord after more than 50 years of conflict.

Special economic zones can be an effective instrument to promote industrialization if implemented properly in the right context. In China, starting in the 1980s, special economic zones were used as a testing ground for the country's transition from a planned to a market economy, and they are a prime example of China's pragmatic and experimental approach to reforms. One of the great special economic zone success stories in China is the Suzhou Industrial Park, a modern industrial township developed in the early 1990s through a Sino-Singapore partnership. It is successful not just in the economic sense, but also in terms of urban and social development in an eco-friendly way. One key lesson is that in a weak market environment, a facilitating and reform-oriented host government, coupled with foreign expertise and knowledge as well as a "whole value chain" approach can go a long way in developing urban-industry well-integrated special economic zones. This paper is intended to examine the success factors and key lessons of the Sino-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park, which can be useful for other developing countries.

This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.

Fiscal indicators for resource-rich and resource-poor low- and middle-income countries are compared using annual data from 1996 to 2012. Resource richness is defined by export composition: fuel greater than a 25 percent share and/or ores and metals greater than a 10 percent share. Fuel exporters have a significantly better general government fiscal balance than the rest of the sample, and higher revenues and expenditures, which are approximately evenly split between extra consumption expenditure and extra capital expenditure. Only about a quarter of their extra revenue goes into extra consumption expenditure, and this proportion has been lower since 2005. Fuel exporters' expenditure reacts with a lag to oil price fluctuations. There are no significant differences between ores and metals exporters and resource-poor countries, or between new and old resource exporters, in aggregate expenditures and revenues. Ores and metals exporters spend more on investment and less on government consumption. Some individual country cases are briefly discussed.

Jordan is an upper middle income country which has proven remarkably resilient despite decades of turmoil in its neighborhood. Even with economic stability in the face of massive shocks, the Jordanian government - reflecting the views of the population - has made clear the need for improvement in the current growth trajectory. Public dissatisfaction coalesced around a perception, which the government acknowledges, that previous reform efforts had struggled with implementation, while discretionary decisions and unequal opportunities remain entrenched. In response, the government is moving to the implementation phase of its Jordan 2025 strategic blueprint, a new ten-year strategy formally launched in May 2015. The Bank’s systematic country diagnostic (SCD) is therefore unfolding at a critical inflection point for the government. Given existing reform momentum around the energy sector and investment, the substantive engagement of the Bank Group and other development partners, the SCD will seek added value by providing an integrative and concise perspective on what Jordan can do to better meet the expectations of its citizens. As a multi-sector evidence-based diagnostic, the SCD relies upon consistent and integrated analysis of data from various sources.

Sri Lanka is in many respects a development success story. With economic growth averaging more than 7 percent a year over the past five years on top of an average growth of 6 percent the preceding five years, Sri Lanka has made notable strides towards the goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity (the ‘twin goals’). The national poverty headcount rate declined from 22.7 to 6.7 percent between 2002 and 2012/13, while consumption per capita of the bottom 40 percent grew at 3.3 percent a year, compared to 2.8 percent for the total population. Other human development indicators are also impressive by regional and lower middle-income country standards. Sri Lanka has also succeeded in ending decades of internal conflict in 2009 and steps have been taken towards reconciliation. Sri Lanka’s has had impressive development gains but there are strong indications that drivers of past progress are not sustainable. Solid economic growth, strong poverty reduction, overcoming internal conflict, effecting a remarkable democratic transition in recent months, and overall strong human development outcomes are a track record that would make any country proud. However, the country’s inward looking growth model based on non-tradable sectors and domestic demand amplified by public investment cannot be expected to lead to sustained inclusive growth going forward. A systematic diagnostic points to fiscal, competitiveness, and inclusion challenges as well as cross-cutting governance and sustainability challenges as priority areas of focus for sustaining progress in ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

Afghanistan is a deeply fragile and conflict affected state. It has been in almost constant conflict for over 35 years since the Soviet invasion of 1979. Today the country is at a crossroads in its development with economic growth down sharply and poverty incidence stubbornly high. Afghanistan faces tremendous development challenges. Gross domestic product (GDP) per-capita is among the lowest in the world, poverty is deep and widespread, and social indicators are still at very low levels. The new government has declared its commitment to address Afghanistan’s development challenges, through its paper realizing self-reliance: commitments to reforms and renewed partnership presented at the London conference in December 2014. The purpose of this systematic country diagnostic (SCD) is to provide an evidence-based diagnostic within an objective framework to help in the identification of development priorities. Countries in conflict often face rapidly evolving circumstances and flexibility to adjust quickly is a necessity. The SCD is thus intended to set forth a broad and flexible framework for thinking about choices, prioritization, and sequencing.

Ethiopia has many advantages as a destination for mining investment. These include promising geology, a well-designed fiscal regime, stable government and a growing domestic market. Additionally, it has a well-managed and successful artisanal and small scale mining sector. Under the second phase of Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan, Ethiopia has the ambitious target for the mining sector to contribute 10% of GDP by 2025. Ethiopia must overcome significant challenges to achieve this target. These challenges range across simplifying the licensing regime, developing its investment promotion efforts and clarifying institutional responsibilities for social and environmental management to enhancing stakeholder engagement in the governance of the sector.

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) covers eight small Pacific island countries (PIC8): Kiribati, Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The objective of the SCD is to identify the most critical constraints and opportunities facing the PIC8 to meet the global goals of ending absolute poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. The report is intended to help these countries, the World Bank and other development partners establish a dialogue to focus their efforts around the key priorities and activities that have high impact and are aligned with the two goals. The regional approach of this SCD is driven by the similarity of development challenges faced by these countries and the importance of regional solutions to these challenges. The SCD also highlights that economic opportunities available to the Pacific island countries are limited. While these opportunities have been known for a long time, the experience of most of these countries in realizing these opportunities has been disappointing, reflected in the poor growth performance of the PIC8. A realistic assessment of these opportunities as well as of the measures needed to realize them is essential. In this context, deep sea mining is seen by some of the PIC8 as the next big opportunity, while at the same time many raise concerns about its possible environmental impacts. This is thus an area that would benefit from an objective assessment of risks and opportunities that could inform policy choices in the PIC8. With the liberalization of telecoms markets and investments in fiber-optic cables that connect many of the PIC8, new opportunities to overcome the tyranny of distance through a focus on knowledge products may become available and deserve a critical assessment. The Pacific Possible research program led by the World Bank Group is providing new insights into the potential of these game-changers.

In spite of the United States' recovery, most Caribbean nations are still struggling in the aftermath of the 2007–08 global financial crisis. This paper examines this slow growth recovery through the analysis of how the Caribbean's growth relates to that of key drivers of the global economy. The paper explores whether the region's links with some important global partners could be behind the sluggish post-crisis recovery. The paper analyzes the economic growth of Caribbean countries as a function of the growth in key global partners and of country-specific characteristics. The findings attribute an important role to the European Union and the United States in the outcomes for the region, especially in services-oriented economies. The findings show that when these nations grow, or when they are in an expansionary cycle, the Caribbean's growth responds positively but less than proportionally. Consequently, the slow recovery in the Caribbean region is attributed to the persistent sluggishness in the European Union and the fact that the U.S. recovery is still nascent and not quite robust.

Once concentrated among a few large economies, global flows of goods, services, and capital now reach an ever-larger number of countries worldwide. Global trade in goods and in services both increased 10 times between 1980 and 2011, while foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased almost 30-fold. A value chain is global when some of these stages are carried out in more than one country, most notably when discrete tasks within a production process are fragmented and dispersed across a number of countries. Southern African Customs Union (SACU) - region global value chains (GVCs) are both a new reality and significant opportunity for expanding non-commodity exports to support growth, diversification, and job creation in the region. The task-based nature of GVCs creates opportunities for developing countries to establish very quickly a position in global trade within a sector in which they may have had no previous experience. For South Africa, GVCs are seen as a route to higher manufacturing exports and greater value addition. For other SACU countries, GVCs are seen as a route to diversification and global integration, and to leverage the possibility of greater investment from South Africa itself. The main objectives of the study are as follows: (i) to understand trends of GVC participation and competitiveness of South Africa and the wider SACU region, the outcomes from this participation (exports, jobs, and productivity), and the factors that determine competitiveness; (ii) to map the extent of value chain integration across the region and identify barriers to deeper integration; and (iii) to identify policies and actions that will be required to develop a globally competitive, high value-adding factory Southern Africa.

The countries comprising the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) are currently not very integrated into global value chains (GVCs), potentially missing out on important development opportunities. Accordingly, we explore high level options for promoting their integration. Given East Asia’s spectacular success with integrating into GVCs, we first assess the probability that SACU can copy their flying geese pattern. That was initiated by Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) investing in successive East Asian countries thereby becoming the lead geese, to be joined subsequently by MNCs from other countries. We argue that the conditions for pursuing a flying geese approach are difficult to replicate in SACU. Therefore, we proffer and explore the proposition that South Africa could serve as the gateway for harnessing MNC geese flying from third countries into the SACU region, in time propelling regional development through knowledge and investment spillovers, and serving as a conduit into GVCs. However, there may be substantial obstacles to deepening this integration potential. Other African gateways are emerging as alternatives to South Africa. And some SACU governments would prefer to build regional value chains (RVCs) rather than prioritize GVC integration. We argue that RVCs are complements to GVCs. SACU countries, excluding South Africa, may not attract many world leading MNCs since their markets are small, but could attract smaller regional players from South Africa or elsewhere. Thus building RVCs in the short run could assist with integration into GVCs in the longer run. Overall, this requires harnessing South African and MNC geese to the South African gateway, in a mutually complementary strategy.

Uruguay is a country of about 3.3 million people, which has consistently given high priority to achieving broadly-shared economic growth and a sustainable reduction in poverty. A strong and progressive social compact has been a defining feature of Uruguayan society and politics, with consistent emphasis placed on protecting vulnerable groups, assuring worker dignity and promoting equitable growth. This compact, combined with rapid economic growth since 2003, has contributed to the development of a sizeable middle class, at 60 percent, the largest in Latin America as a proportion of the population, as well as effective institutions, good governance and, in consequence, a high degree of public trust in Government. The resultant political stability has been a fundamental element of Uruguay’s success in attaining its present standards of living. This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) is aligned with Uruguay’s 2015-2020 political cycle and selectivity has been exercised in the identification of objectives. The design of the CPF program responds to the Government’s priorities and is also closely coordinated with the programs of Uruguay’s other development partners, including IADB and CAF. The program is anchored in the findings of the new Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) which was informed by extensive consultations with a wide range of stakeholders. The proposed CPF program is designed to support the Government in its pursuit of six objectives identified in the SCD, grouped into three focal areas, namely, building resilience, rebalancing the social compact, and integrating Uruguay into global markets. During consultations, the Government endorsed the selection of focal areas (CPF’s pillars and objectives) and the technical teams closely coordinated with the Bank experts who designed a set of indicators, which are fully owned.

After a destructive civil war and extreme political instability, Uganda began its reconstruction process in 1987. Within the enabling environment of macroeconomic stability, most of the progress on the twin goals was attributable to higher agricultural incomes. Poverty reduction among households primarily engaged in agriculture accounted for 53 percent of the reduction in poverty from 2006 to 2010 and 77 percent of the reduction in poverty from 2010 to 2013. Despite significant progress on the twin goals, vulnerability to poverty in Uganda is high and the sparse social safety nets and limited access to finance have provided little protection. Change in economic and social policies is required to prevent a slowdown in poverty reduction and an increase in vulnerability. In this context, a comprehensive framework based on the three interrelated blocks of growth, inclusion, and sustainability has been used to identify the challenges to and opportunities for ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The first block emphasizes the development of a competitive and resilient private sector to lead the growth process by adequately capitalizing on all the available opportunities. The second block, complementary to the first one, reinforces the need to ensure a fair distribution of the growth dividend across all Ugandans, especially those living in the north and the east, by providing them with access to social and infrastructure services so that they can increase their productive capacity and income generating opportunities. The third block emphasizes the need to undertake the inclusive growth process in a fiscally, socially, and environmentally sustainable manner.

A synchronous growth slowdown has been underway in emerging markets (EM) since 2010. Growth in these countries is now markedly slower than, not just the pre‐crisis average, but also the long‐term average. As a group, EM growth eased from 7.6 percent in 2010 to 4.5 percent in 2014, and is projected to slow further to below 4 percent in 2015. This moderation has affected all regions (except South Asia) and is the most severe in Latin America and the Caribbean. The deceleration is highly synchronous across countries, especially among large EM. By 2015, China, Russia, and South Africa had all experienced three consecutive years of slower growth. The EM‐AE growth differential has narrowed to two percentage points in 2015, well below the 2003‐08 average of 4.8 percentage points and near the long‐term average differential of 1990‐2008. The recent slowdown in EM has been a source of a lively debate, as evident from the quotations at the beginning of this note. Some economists paint a bleak picture for the future of EM and argue that the impressive growth performance of EM prior to the crisis was driven by temporary commodity booms and rapid debt accumulation, and will not be sustained. Others emphasize that a wide range of cyclical and structural factors are driving the slowdown: weakening macroeconomic fundamentals after the crisis; prospective tightening in financial conditions; resurfacing of deep‐rooted governance problems in EM; and difficulty adjusting to disruptive technological changes. Still others highlight differences across EM and claim that some of them are in a better position to weather the slowdown and will likely register strong growth in the future. This policy research note seeks to help move the debate forward by examining the main features, drivers, and implications of the recent EM slowdown and provides a comprehensive analysis of available policy options to counteract it.

The objective of this paper is to review and analyze existing literature on Public Private Dialogue (PPD) and the way it can be applied to address the issues of competitiveness at the city level. The paper aims to explain how traditional PPD approaches and techniques should be adjusted for application at the city level.

The objective of this paper is to present the Competitive Cities diagnostic methodology and to guide city practitioners through the diagnostic process, tools and resources that the Competitive Cities team offers.

The World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Egypt forFY15-19 has been prepared at an important juncture in Egypt’s history to support transformational changes to the economic and social space. It builds on the Government of Egypt’s (GOE) medium-term strategy and national priorities for economic development, responds to client demands, and is informed by consultations with a broad array of stakeholders in Egypt. At the same time, the CPF proposes selective interventions in line with the development priorities of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Egypt, and draws on the WBG’s comparative advantage. This program will also seek to implement the new MENA Regional strategy, especially the pillars on renewing the social contract, supporting economic recovery, and promoting regional cooperation. The CPF supports a transformative program to renew the social contract to support private sector job creation, social inclusion, and enhanced governance. The WBG is moving towards more than doubling its lending program compared to the recent past, to a total of about $8 billion over FY15-19, of which an indicative amount of about $6 billion is requested by the authorities to come from IBRD and about $2 billion from IFC. The actual volume and pace of IBRD lending will dependon the implementation of the program, including the ability to address macroeconomic risks, choice of instruments and economic performance in the course of the CPF period, continued Government interest in IBRD financing, and on IBRD’s lending capacity and demands from other borrowers. Similarly, the actual investments by IFC and guarantees by MIGA during the CPF period will depend on improvements in macroeconomic stability and progress in investmentclimate reforms that would boost investor confidence and facilitate greater private sector participation.

Bolivia’s distinct characteristics and aspirations are a key for understanding its development trajectory. Bolivia is one of the countries with the highest share of indigenous population, representing a tapestry of different groups with different historical, cultural and economic features, with a significant influence in policy decision making. The country is landlocked and one of the most sparsely populated in the world. As a result, long distances to the nearest seaports and markets and a challenging topography pose important natural constraints to economic expansion, and hamper broad-based and inclusive growth. Bolivia is also wealthy in natural resources, not only in hydrocarbon and in mining but in forestry and arable land, with high potential for growth, which make it vulnerable to commodity price shocks. In addition, in the last decade, the country has experienced a profound economic and political paradigm shift, enshrined in the 2009 Constitution, which has been predominantly driven by a state-led development model geared at addressing the social aspirations of Bolivians. The Agenda Patriótica provides the overall policy vision to 2025 and includes 13 strategic pillars. The PDES contains a five-year rolling plan with policy actions and budgets to operationalize the Agenda Patriótica. The overarching development agenda of the Government is still, by and large, based on an economic model that emphasizes state-led public investment, but which is increasingly opening up to private investment in important areas.

Seventy years after independence and more than a decade of political and institutional reforms, Indonesia has emerged as a stable democracy. Indonesia’s achievements are now under stress, with a slowdown in its commodity driven economy, stagnant rates of poverty reduction, and rapidly rising inequality. The development policy review, completed in 2014, and the systematic country diagnostic (SCD), completed in 2015, explain the limited window of opportunity for Indonesia to reach high per capita income levels. This country partnership framework (CPF), covering the period FY2016-20, builds on the previous country partnership strategy (CPS) FY2013-15 and the long-term operational and policy-based support that has been a hallmark of World Bank Group’s (WBG’s) engagement with the Government of India (GoI) for the past decade. The CPF concentrates on areas of infrastructure necessary to better connect the economy, provide sustainable energy, help the country reap benefits from the rapid pace of urbanization, and improve equality of opportunity through better access of the poor and vulnerable to essential water and sanitation services. The CPF will seek to maximize synergies across the WBG and take advantage of all instruments in support of the CPF goals. The CPF will require a larger financing package than the previous CPS, although WBG’s total contribution will still be a very small percentage of overall borrowing needs.

This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) is designed to support the forthcoming Chad Five-Year Development Plan (2016-2020). It succeeds the Interim Strategy agreed with the Government of Chad in March 2010. The Interim Strategy Note (ISN) set out the World Bank Group’s (WBG’s) support to Chad for the period 2010-2012. The strategy was composed of three main pillars: strengthening governance; improving livelihoods and access to key social services; and improving regional integration and connectivity. The WBG has continued to operate on the basis of the ISN since 2012, as the conditions were put in place for a return to a full partnership framework, in particular the full resumption of an IMF program and of the dialogue towards the HIPC Completion Point. In May 2013 the Government of Chad published its National Development Plan (NDP) for the period 2013-2015, which is considered the third Poverty Reduction Plan for Chad. This included a strong results framework, with 24 strategic indicators and 65 intermediary indicators, including all HIPC completion point triggers. It was the subject of a Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) in June 2013 in which the WBG and IMF broadly endorsed the thrust of the plan. A JSAN issued in March 2015 on the 2013 Monitoring Report of the NDP determined that the NDP was satisfactorily implemented overall in 2013, representing a significant departure from the non-implementation of the first two poverty reduction strategies of 2003-2006 and 2008-2011.

How much do poor rural households rely on environmental extraction from natural ecosystems? And how does climate variability impact their livelihoods? This paper sheds light on these two questions with household income data from the Poverty and Environment Network pantropical data set, combined with climate data for the past three decades. The study finds that extraction of wild resources (from natural forests, bushlands, fallows, etc.) provides on average as much income (about 27 percent) as crops across the smallholder sample. The cross-section data on past reactions to household self-perceived economic shocks and observed production reactions to climate anomalies can, respectively, provide hints about livelihood vulnerability to current climate variability, which is likely to worsen with climate change. Forest extraction did not figure among the most favored response strategies to households’ self-perceived economic shocks, but households undertake subtle substitutions in sector production in response to weather anomalies that accentuate suboptimal climatic conditions for cropping. By relying more on forest extraction and wages, households compensate quite successfully for declining crop incomes. This paints a cautiously optimistic picture about fairly flexible rural livelihood reactions to current climate variability, and featuring forests as potentially important in household coping strategies.