Nepal, Bikash, Bao, Qing, Wu, Guoxiong, Liu, Yimin, Kadel, Indira, and Lamichhane, Dipendra
Sub‐seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction provides an extended range of lead time for decision‐makers across multiple sectors. S2S forecast is crucial for a country that are susceptible to hydro‐meteorological disasters like Nepal. However, S2S forecast requires assessment with reliable datasets before its application. Since, Nepal lacks a dense station network, multi‐source precipitation estimates (MPEs) are the obvious alternatives. Therefore, using classical evaluation metrics and extreme precipitation indices, this study assessed eleven high‐resolution datasets against 159‐gauge stations over Nepal for the 2001–2020 period. These datasets are classified as gauge‐interpolated (APHRODITE), merged (TPMFD, MSWEP, CLDAS, and CHIRPS), satellite‐based (IMERGV7, IMERGV6, CMORPH, and PERSIANN), and reanalysis (ERA5‐L and HAR). Satellite datasets (except IMERGV7) failed to capture the spatial pattern of mean annual precipitation, while others broadly captured it. Most MPEs struggled to accurately estimate wet season precipitation compared to dry season. Furthermore, increasing estimation error from light to extreme precipitation and decreasing skill metrics from flat to complex terrain, demonstrate the intensity and terrain‐specific limitations of MPEs. In terms of precipitation extremes, APHRODITE exhibits the highest skill, followed by MSWEP, TPMFD, HAR, ERA5‐L, IMERGV7, CLDAS, IMERGV6, CHIRPS, CMORPH, and PERSIANN. IMERGV7 exhibits increased skill in detecting extreme precipitation and precipitation over orography against IMERGV6. APHRODITE and TPMFD datasets performed consistently well in all scales, including weekly anomaly, with an average anomaly correlation of 0.84 and 0.66 respectively. However, since APHRODITE is not widely available, TPMFD can serve as a benchmark dataset for evaluating high‐resolution S2S forecasts within the study region. Plain Language Summary: Timely and accurate forecasts of weather events before their occurrence is important for decision‐makers in effective planning and actions to cope with weather‐induced disasters. Such forecast plays a crucial role in disaster preparedness over complex terrain regions like Nepal. Since sub‐seasonal to seasonal (S2S) scale prediction can provide forecasts beyond 10 days up to 30 days, is getting popular nowadays. However, their skill needs to be evaluated before any operational use which requires reliable observation data. Since, Nepal lacks the proper ground observing stations: mainly over the high mountains, gridded precipitation datasets produced using multiple sources (like satellites, and numerical models) have been good alternatives. Thus, we evaluated 11 such gridded datasets against the existing ground observing stations. We found that these datasets struggle to estimate extreme precipitation. Additionally, they also fail to capture precipitation characteristics over the complex terrain of the high mountain region compared to flat regions. Overall, gauge interpolated and merged datasets demonstrated better performance in estimating precipitation characteristics over complex terrain; hence, can serve as a benchmark dataset for S2S forecast evaluation in this region. Key Points: Multi‐source precipitation estimates captured the annual to weekly precipitation cycle, but only roughly captured the spatial patternMulti‐source precipitation estimates performed poorly in estimating extreme precipitation and struggled over complex terrainAmong high‐resolution datasets, TPMFD has the potential to be used as a reference dataset for sub‐seasonal to seasonal model evaluation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]