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Estimating the contribution of enslaved workers to output and growth in the United States during the first half of the nineteenth century is a crucial building block to better understand the contours of nineteenth‐century US economic history, and more generally, the connection between slavery and capitalism. Existing estimates only present a partial picture and are potentially problematic. In this paper, we use data on enslaved person valuations to calculate the contribution made by enslaved workers to regional and national gross national product (GNP) in 1839 and 1859 and to the growth in per capita output in the 20 years before the Civil War. We find that in the United States, enslaved workers were responsible for somewhere between 12.49 per cent and 18.0 per cent of the increase in output per capita between 1839 and 1859. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

R&D subsidisation is acknowledged as a major spurrer of the economic development of regions, but is seldom considered in the literature concerning regional diversification. Conversely, robust evidence has been gathered about the impact of relatedness on the ability of regions to explore new technological domains. The work employs patent data to assess the extent to which related and unrelated diversification processes in the United States, between 1981 and 2010, are influenced by the existing regional knowledge base and the magnitude of R&D public funds, providing evidence for both drivers by means of econometric estimations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Privatization of state government services is commonplace, but our understanding of its effects is limited by data availability. We study the relationship between American state government contracting and public sector wages. Governments have used public sector employment to support a variety of goals, including social equity and economic development, but privatization, as a new public management (NPM) reform, may shift the focus. Our empirical analysis shows that state privatization of service delivery is associated with decreases in the public sector wage premium, but that these effects are not driven by gender, race, or low‐levels of educational attainment. The fidelity of the implementation to NPM values conditions these effects. We also find that contracting service delivery is associated with a lower public sector wage premium for middle‐class workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of 10 series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current‐quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020, with weaker performance in the second half. We document how the WEI responded to key events and data releases during the first 10 months of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the medium‐ to long‐run effects of slavery in the United States in a spatial regression discontinuity design. Using the boundary between free and slave states immediately antebellum, we find that legal slavery decreased per capita manufacturing output by as much as 30% in the decades following the Civil War. Perhaps surprisingly, agricultural output and farm values were only briefly depressed in former slave states after the war. Although emancipation ended slavery, political forces kept the institution from being completely disintegrated, and we explore channels through which this was possible. We show that slavery affected the structure of the economy in a given region—specifically through agricultural production decisions—and that these structures persisted long after passage of the 13th Amendment. However, sharecropping played a relatively small role in this region. Our results support mounting evidence in recent literature of the significant and lasting effects of institutions on economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As science becomes increasingly cross‐disciplinary and scientific models become increasingly cross‐coupled, standardized practices of model evaluation are more important than ever. For normally distributed data, mean squared error (MSE) is ideal as an objective measure of model performance, but it gives little insight into what aspects of model performance are "good" or "bad." This apparent weakness has led to a myriad of specialized error metrics, which are sometimes aggregated to form a composite score. Such scores are inherently subjective, however, and while their components may be interpretable, the composite itself is not. We contend that, a better approach to model benchmarking and interpretation is to decompose MSE into interpretable components. To demonstrate the versatility of this approach, we outline some fundamental types of decomposition and apply them to predictions at 1,021 streamgages across the conterminous United States from three streamflow models. Through this demonstration, we hope to show that each component in a decomposition represents a distinct concept, like "season" or "variability," and that simple decompositions can be combined to represent more complex concepts, like "seasonal variability," creating an expressive language through which to interrogate models and data. Plain Language Summary: Models are essential scientific tools for explaining and predicting phenomena ranging from weather and climate, to health outcomes, to economic development, to the origins of the universe, and testing competing models is one of the most basic scientific activites. Yet, how scientists evaluate and justify their models can be inconsistent or even arbitrary. Traditionally, one performance metric—such as mean squared error—is used to identify the best model, but one metric provides little insight into what aspects of a model are "good" or "bad." This paper proposes a basic language for expressing different aspects of a model's performance. On one hand, this is useful for determining which aspects of model may require revision, but it also allows the modeler to separate out the best elements among several models and combine them to form an ensemble, analogous to how an audio engineer mixes together multiple tracks to form the best rendition of a musical piece. Key Points: Mean squared error (MSE) is an objective but somewhat enigmatic measure of model performanceMSE can be decomposed into components that quantify specific aspects of model performance, such as bias and varianceMixing components among models yields a form of ensemble prediction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural resource dependence, although commonly invoked in natural resource sociology, has often been ambiguously defined. Communities are frequently described as dependent on natural resource development, but limited attention has been paid to what that means. In the literature, resource dependence is often treated as over‐specialization in, or over‐reliance upon, the natural resource sectors. However, the logic of over‐specialization conceptually grounds dependence in poor economic outcomes. Thus, a one‐dimensional typology of dependence based on a threshold of the share of development in the natural resource sector—as commonly used—does not fully capture the concept and risks tautology. In this paper, I address this ambiguity by formally defining natural resource dependence as over‐specialization in the natural resource sectors. I then present an ideal typology, known as the Natural Resource Community Typology, and a corresponding classification scheme for rural communities in the United States. The typology integrates both extractive and non‐extractive natural resource activity and has two dimensions—the level of development and the level of economic prosperity—and six mutually exclusive categories—extractive specialized, extractive dependent, non‐extractive specialized, non‐extractive dependent, hybrid specialized, and hybrid dependent. I classify counties from 2000 to 2015 and find that while extractive dependence decreased over the study period, non‐extractive dependence increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Background: Economic development has brought rapid shifts in the food environment of Chinese children and adolescents. Objectives: To assess the changes in childhood nutritional status across ethnic groups and economic status from 2005 to 2014. Methods: 664 094 Chinese Han and 224 151 ethnic minority children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 years were assessed in three national cross‐sectional surveys (2005, 2010 and 2014). Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of each ethnic group was categorized into four strata of socioeconomic status. To assess ethnic disparities at each time point, we used logistic regression to estimate the prevalence odds ratios (OR) for thinness, overweight and obesity in the 24 ethnic minority groups vs Han Chinese. Results: Children in the two upper economic strata (over about US$4000 GDP per capita) had a high prevalence of overweight and obesity, while those in the two lower economic strata (below US$4000 GDP per capita) had a high prevalence of thinness. From 2005 to 2014, the prevalence of thinness decreased from 18.6% to 13.1% in Han children, and from 20.4% to 17.1% in ethnic minority students. At the same time, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased from 10.4% to 17.7% in Han children, and from 4.3% to 9.2% in ethnic minority students, respectively. Conclusions: A rapid nutritional transition has occurred from 2005 to 2014 with shifts from thinness to overweight and obesity in both Han and ethnic minority children and adolescents, reflecting local GDP per capita. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Previous studies of public attitudes toward immigration have been set in economically developed areas such as the United States and the countries of Western Europe, implicitly applying the term "immigrants" solely to blue‐collar laborers. In this article, we extend the discussion to Taiwan, a newly democratic and nearly developed country in East Asia. Methods: Our study investigates public attitudes toward immigrants with different occupations and test predictions derived from both economic and cultural approaches. Results: From an analysis of the survey data, we find different economic factors for pro‐immigration attitudes toward foreign professionals and laborers. Conclusions: Specifically, people who have higher incomes are more likely to allow foreign professionals to become citizens, and people with positive assessments of national and individual economic conditions are more likely to favor the inflow of foreign workers. Furthermore, cultural tolerance and a high level of education are correlated to pro‐migration attitudes toward both foreign professionals and laborers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1960, 94 percent of doctors and lawyers were white men. By 2010, the fraction was just 62 percent. Similar changes in other highly‐skilled occupations have occurred throughout the U.S. economy during the last 50 years. Given that the innate talent for these professions is unlikely to have changed differently across groups, the change in the occupational distribution since 1960 suggests that a substantial pool of innately talented women and black men in 1960 were not pursuing their comparative advantage. We examine the effect on aggregate productivity of the convergence in the occupational distribution between 1960 and 2010 through the prism of a Roy model. Across our various specifications, between 20% and 40% of growth in aggregate market output per person can be explained by the improved allocation of talent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This chapter discusses an innovative state public policy which has incentivized Iowa's community colleges to become the economic drivers of their region. Created in the 1983 legislation, it continues to this day to affect Iowa's rural communities and their colleges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Different economic growth episodes display very different distributional characteristics, both across countries and over time. Growth is sometimes accompanied by rising and sometimes by falling inequality. Applied economists have come to rely on the growth incidence curve, which gives the quantile‐specific rate of income growth over a certain period, to describe these differences. This paper introduces a mean‐independent analogue, the delta Lorenz curve, which gives the cumulative change in income share up to each quantile. We also develop estimation and inference procedures for both functions of quantiles. We establish the limiting null distribution of the test statistics of interest for those functions, and propose resampling methods to implement inference in practice. The proposed methods are used to compare the growth processes in the USA and Brazil during 1995–2007. Although growth in the average real wages was disappointing in both countries, the distribution of that growth was markedly different. In the USA, wage growth was mediocre for the bottom 80% of the sample, but much more rapid for the top 20%. In Brazil, conversely, wage growth was rapid below the median, and negative at the top. Wage shares fell in the USA up to the 83rd percentile, and rose in Brazil up to the 65th percentile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We present evidence that the natural rate of interest is buffeted by both permanent and transitory shocks. We establish this result by estimating a benchmark model with Bayesian methods and loose priors on the unobserved drivers of the natural rate. When subject to transitory shocks, the median estimate for the US economy is more procyclical, displays a less marked secular decline, and is therefore higher following the Great Recession than most estimates in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact on U.S. employment from imports and exports during 1995–2011, using the World Input–Output Database. We find that the growth in U.S. exports led to increased demand for 2 million jobs in manufacturing, 0.5 million in resource industries, and a remarkable 4.1 million jobs in services, totaling 6.6 million. Two‐thirds of those service sectors jobs are due to the export of services themselves, whereas one‐third is due to the intermediate demand from manufacturing and resource—or merchandise—exports, so the total labor demand gain due to merchandise exports was 3.7 million jobs. In comparison, U.S. merchandise imports from China led to reduced demand of 1.4 million jobs in manufacturing and 0.6 million in services (with small losses in resource industries), with total job losses of 2.0 million. It follows that the expansion in U.S. merchandise exports relative to imports from China over 1995–2011 created net demand for about 1.7 million jobs. Comparing the growth of U.S. merchandise exports to merchandise imports from all countries, we find a fall in net labor demand due to trade, but comparing the growth of total U.S. exports to total imports from all countries, then there is a rise in net labor demand because of the growth in service exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA, an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP. There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA, but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: Following United States withdrawal, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) is likely to be replaced or complemented by a series of bilateral deals between the US and TPP partners. In this case, TPP will shape trade, finance and public policy globally even without formal US participation. Proponents of TPP emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after 10 years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the USA to 13 per cent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries, excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. This article provides alternative projections of the TPP's economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which allows for changes in employment and income distribution. Using this model, the authors obtain very different results. They find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full‐employment models, and are negative for Japan and the USA. More importantly, they find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an alternative approach to penalized regression for model selection in the context of high‐dimensional linear regressions where the number of covariates is large, often much larger than the number of available observations. We consider the statistical significance of individual covariates one at a time, while taking full account of the multiple testing nature of the inferential problem involved. We refer to the proposed method as One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) procedure, and use ideas from the multiple testing literature to control the probability of selecting the approximating model, the false positive rate, and the false discovery rate. OCMT is easy to interpret, relates to classical statistical analysis, is valid under general assumptions, is faster to compute, and performs well in small samples. The usefulness of OCMT is also illustrated by an empirical application to forecasting U.S. output growth and inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The high level of debt among households outside the top end of the income distribution has led many economists to assert that household debt has been an important component of the increase in income inequality in the United States. In addition, the yield spread provides information about the overall condition of the economy and may also be tied into the distribution of income. The paper's results show that increases in the yield spread and household debt correspond with increases in top income shares, resulting in increases in income inequality. However, as household debt and income inequality increase, the yield spread contracts, which suggests future economic contraction. Thus, rising inequality may signal future economic weakness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Innovation in local economic development strategy is necessary to support struggling regions and foster growth across municipalities with varying resources and needs. This paper presents a case of innovation in local economic development strategy to illustrate how institutional entrepreneurship can be used as a tool to help local governments innovatively approach economic development strategy. Through the creation of the Wireless Research Center of North Carolina, institutional entrepreneurs transformed the institutionalized role for local government in economic development, while simultaneously creating a new institutional form that would support local development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes a novel dynamic propensity score matching approach for multiple cohorts of U.S. counties between 1989 and 1999 to examine local economy resilience to rare natural disasters. Affected counties are sorted based on disaster intensity and are carefully matched to similar counties that did not experience a disaster. A difference-in-difference estimator compares trends of affected counties' postdisaster business establishments, employment, and payroll to counterfactual trends in the matched counties. All affected counties experienced short-run drops in economic activity that was particularly noticeable in higher-intensity disasters. In the longer run, less distressed counties returned to their estimated counterfactual trends, but countieswith lower predisaster socioeconomic conditions still lagged in growth, particularly in cases of lowerintensity disasters. Policymakers can use this information to better prepare responses to future disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and does not rely on a benchmark country using both univariate and multivariate estimates of the long memory parameter d. Using per capita GDP gaps, we confirm the findings of non‐stationarity and long memory behavior that have been found previously in the literature using univariate tests. However, the support for these findings is much weaker when using a multivariate framework, in which case we find more evidence of stationary behavior. Based on these results, we also investigate club formation, something that would suggest the presence of conditional convergence. We describe a club formation methodology using the sequential testing criteria that we have employed in our analysis as the basis for forming clusters or clubs of countries with similar convergence characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I use data on U.S. manufacturing establishments to study the spatial reallocation of resources that takes place within surviving firms as they open and close establishments in different regions. To motivate the empirical analysis, I extend existing models of industry dynamics to include production‐location decisions within firms. Consistent with the theory, the empirical results show that only a fraction of firms make the same product in multiple regions, that multiregional firms are larger and more productive on average compared to single‐region firms, and that “region switching” is pervasive among multiregional firms and correlated with changes in firm and firm‐region characteristics. (JEL L2, F12, F23) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between immigrants' genetic diversity and economic development in the United States during the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries, a period commonly referred to as the age of mass migration from Europe to the New World. Our panel model estimates show that during this period, immigrants' genetic diversity is significantly positively correlated with measures of U.S. counties' economic development. There exists also a significant positive relationship between immigrants' genetic diversity in 1870 and contemporaneous measures of U.S. counties' average income. (JEL J11, O51, Z13) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the relationship between public administration and economic development. Topics discussed include analysis of public administration; implementation of public policy; and need of human betterment along with antitrust to environmental regulation and fundamental cause of development.

Exercise is an important part of a healthy lifestyle and influences a variety of health outcomes. Regions vary in their levels of exercise due to geography, climate, culture, and policy. The extent to which a country's policies are consistent with economic freedom has been found to be positively associated with greater participation in physical activity. We empirically investigate the relationship between economic freedom and exercise across U.S. states. Contrary to the cross‐country results, we find that states with higher levels of economic freedom have lower rates of participation in exercise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Following the massive prison expansion in New York State in the 1980s, there has been a growing panic that families of men incarcerated in two state prisons in Elmira, New York are relocating to Elmira and utilizing the city's welfare benefits and causing crime. Like in many other Rust Belt towns, prisons were constructed as economic development projects in this small, multi‐racial city, but failed to fulfill the promise of economic recovery. I highlight prison expansion and maintenance as a site of racialization that obscures the history of Black Elmirans and renders people outsiders in their own places. I show how prison workers extend and limit the practice of carceral state making in order to show how the carceral state takes shape in the post‐Fordist era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Using data on 48 contiguous U.S. states and a spatial econometric approach, this paper examines short‐ and long‐run effects of productive higher education and highway infrastructure spending financed by different revenue sources on state economic growth. Following the Lagrange Multiplier, Wald, and Likelihood Ratio tests, the data are found to be characterized by both spatial lag and spatial error processes, leading to the estimation of a dynamic spatial Durbin model. By decomposing results of the dynamic spatial Durbin model into short‐ and long‐run direct as well as indirect (spillover) effects, we show that accounting for spillover effects provides a more comprehensive approach to uncovering the effects of productive government spending on growth. We find that, regardless of the financing source, productive higher education and highway spending have statistically significant short‐ and long‐run direct as well as spillover effects on state income growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The objectives of this study were to examine (1) the linkage from airports to regional talent distribution and (2) the effect of talent on regional economic development. Methods: Using the data collected in Wisconsin at the municipal level, a subcounty level, in a region of the North Central United States from 1970 to 2010 and the American Community Survey 2006–2010 five‐year estimates, and random effects models and structural equation models, we employ descriptive and inferential statistics to examine the linkage from airports to talent to regional economic development. Results: We find that the farther a location is away from the airport, the lower its talent share tends to be, while greater passenger flow at the nearest airport increases a location's talent share. Given the quantity of passenger flow, a longer distance from the airport also reduces a location's talent share. The results furthermore suggest that economic development is impacted positively by passenger flow and talent share and negatively by distance to an airport. Conclusion: Our results underscore the intermediate role of talent between airports and regional economic development; building the linkage from airports to talent within the context of regional economic development provides important insights for local policy making aimed at attracting talented migrants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Taxation impacts individuals' lives in significant, and sometimes unequal, ways. While much sociological research examines factors that contribute to economic inequality and policy development, the relationship between inequality and tax policies remains understudied in sociology. In this article, I review extant research highlighting the ways in which taxation is an important site of inequality in the United States. I focus on how some of the most valuable tax policies related to work, marriage, investments, and homeownership contribute to economic inequality with class, gender, and race/ethnicity variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the relationship between economic growth and top income inequality under the influence of human and physical capital accumulation, using an annual panel of U.S. state-level data. Our analysis is based upon the 'unified' framework offered by Galor and Moav (2004) while the empirics account for cross-section dependence, parameter heterogeneity, and endogeneity, in nonstationary series. We conclude that changes in inequality do not influence growth, neither in the short run nor in the long run in the United States as a whole in the 1929-2013 period. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of overall income inequality measures. These findings provide support for the theoretical prediction of the unified theory of inequality and growth, according to which the growth effect of inequality becomes insignificant in the latest stages of economic development that the United States experiences during our period of investigation. Therefore, future policies aiming at moderating the concentration at the upper end of income distribution are not likely to have adverse growth consequences in developed countries such as the United States. ( JEL I21, O47, C23) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policymakers across the Southern U.S. have directed considerable attention to regional economic development plans, with mixed results. Questions remain over what types of industries, firms, and/or policies can drive long-range growth. Over the past two decades, researchers have started to focus on high-growth firms (HGFs) due to their potential innovation spillovers and job creation prospects, both of which drive further economic development. Employing databases from the Inc. 500, this study explores the dynamics of HGFs within Southern and comparative contexts. The first goal of this paper is to explore Southern HGF activity in comparison with the U.S. at-large. The second is to examine the geographical characteristics of HGFs within the South, which will include an exploration of locations, industrial mix, and the factors that could encourage HGF development and agglomeration. This paper will also analyze the longer-term ownership and acquisition patterns of HGFs across the South. Are such firms remaining embedded in the South or moving elsewhere through mergers or acquisitions? The paper concludes with a discussion of the impacts of HGFs on regional economic development and moreover, whether existing policies are conducive to these firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite economic growth since the recession, the gap between the richest and the poorest segments of the population remains one of the most pressing concerns of contemporary America. This paper uses IR-95/20, IR-80/20, and IR-65/35 ratios to measure the income divides between the richest and the poorest segments in the mid-to-large-sized metropolises of the U.S. Southeast, their variation across ethnicities, and their association with metropolitan level attributes such as diversity, segregation, socio-economic, and other built-environment, and labor characteristics. The income divide ratios serve as the dependent variables whereas principal components along with state-dummy variables serve as the explanatory variables in regressions analyses. The metropolises that are large, diverse, and better educated are the most income-divided whereas those with lower educated people are less divided. Metropolises with larger shares of their labor engaged in primary sectors of economy have higher income divides; this observation also holds true for African Americans and Hispanics. Metropolises that gained in intermixing during 2000-2014 are associated with a lower income divide and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy makers who wish to spur economic development in rural forests face challenges that include population decline and poverty. Protected land and natural amenities enhance the quality of life and prospects for economic development, but there is limited research on how different types of protected land or natural amenities affect the rural forest economy. We use county level variables for protected areas differentiated by access and extractive use, and natural amenities differentiated by climate, water area, and topography to explain spatial variation in labor and built space markets. Results show that temperate summers and water area increase wages and housing prices and explain more than 30 percent of the spatial differences in wages, housing price, employment density, built space percent, human capital, and local road density. Protected area decreases wages, but, if open access, increase housing prices and human capital and explain more than 20 percent of the spatial differences in human capital, built space percent, and local road density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1957 and 1990, nearly 100 nuclear reactors were constructed throughout the U.S., and nuclear power currently accounts for 20 percent of electricity production nationwide. Nuclear plants are often constructed in small communities for which they constitute a large source of employment and income. To date, 24 nuclear reactors have undergone decommissioning, and more are expected in the future, particularly as nuclear reactors age and face increasingly strict regulations. This paper examines the effects of nuclear decommissioning over time at the county-level on measures of employment, income, and population using difference-in-differences regression and propensity score matching. Panel data are obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, and cover the years 1975-2014. The analysis finds that nuclear decommissioning is associated with positive and statistically significant increases in employment and per capita income over time. Results suggest that nuclear decommissioning may actually be a positive force in regional economic development, and concludes with limitations of the approach and implications for future research. As an emerging area of research, this paper is meant to build on previous work, as well as to provide a basis for further discussion and debate on the economic future of nuclear host communities and regional economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the exception of Austin, metropolitan regions in Texas are not commonly included in research and analysis concerning creative economies-attention is largely focused on either the traditional capitals of creative production, New York and Los Angeles, or emerging, secondary regions such as Austin and Seattle, Washington. This article utilizes an industrial approach to examine the creative economies of the four most populous metropolitan regions of Texas-Austin, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, and San Antonio-and detail their scale, scope, and change between 2005 and 2015. Results help establish the creative economies of the Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, and San Antonio metropolitan regions in the existing stream of creative research and discussion, offer further perspective on the dynamics and strength of the Austin region's creative economy, and provide insight into how regional creative economies emerge in rapidly urbanizing regions during the digital era. Additionally, special attention is paid to how these four creative economies transformed during the recessionary period from 2007 to 2009. Results of that attention build on prior research which points to the recession having a varied influence on creative economies depending on trends in the broader regional economies that house them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines how post-9/11 US military trainings have conscripted development as a weapon of war. The post-9/11 years saw the increasing dominance of for-profit international development contractors (IDCs), who, by 2010, were winning more valuable contracts from the US Agency for International Development (USAID) than non-profit organizations, UN agencies, and the World Bank. This article describes financial, administrative and bureaucratic shifts in the integration of development and defence that have fed into the increasing dominance of IDCs. In the mid-2000s, USAID developed an instructional framework to translate development for military audiences. The framework speaks to the rejection in this period of the language of 'hearts and minds' and the adoption of a technical language of 'stabilization' amenable to private contracting. Drawing on ethnographic observations of private civilian contractors teaching the USAID framework on military bases, I examine the contradictions of 'stabilization' as a concept sold in private militarized development markets, and as a lived practice of military learning that often conflicts with other dimensions of soldiering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the impact of tourism on total and extreme monetary poverty, in order to illuminate the debate surrounding the links between tourism and poverty. We apply fixed effects models to panel data on the Peruvian departments for the period 2001-2013. We also identify the key factors in the tourism model affecting the empirical results. Our findings show that tourism is important for the poor, but its benefits do not reach the extreme poor to the same extent, and its potential is not fully exploited. The weak macroenvironment and low community participation impede poverty reduction through tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is substantial evidence on the importance of education as a driver of earnings, productivity, and economic growth. However, knowledge of the specific role of associate's degrees in U.S. economic growth is limited. We analyze the sources of U.S. economic growth and identify the contribution of associate's degree holders to improvements in earnings, labor quality, productivity, and overall economic growth. We find evidence that substitution toward workers with associate's degrees has increased U.S. earnings, aggregate labor quality, and productivity, and that these effects are concentrated in the health care, trade, and government sectors. While the average educational attainment of people entering the labor force has plateaued, our results suggest that shifting workers from some college to associate degrees could improve earnings, the quality of the workforce, productivity, and growth, potentially without more time spent in school. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between casinos and economic growth in the U.S. Using county-level data on the 48 contiguous states from 2003 to 2012, we estimate the effect of casinos on per capita income growth and job creation. Our research procedures include examining the relationship using level-to-level panel data, and 3-year and 10-year differenced data. An instrumental variable approach is also considered to account for potential endogeneity of the casino variable. Although, the instruments are both relevant and exogenous, test results found insufficient evidence of endogeneity in our panel data models. In addition, we estimate a spatial error model (SEM) to account for the unobserved spatial characteristics that may affect economic growth in the counties but are not captured by our conventional econometric models. Our results show that casinos had a positive effect on per capita income; casino expansions exerted a small, positive effect on both per capita income growth and job growth. However, the effect of casino expansions on 10-year per capita income growth dissipated when we controlled for the spatial autocorrelation in our model. Nevertheless, the SEMs results also suggest that casino expansions continued to have a positive effect on the 2003-2012 job growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations sustainable development goals are under fire. By attempting to cover all that is good and desirable in society, these targets have ended up as vague, weak, or meaningless. We suggest a model for sustainable development based on three moral imperatives: satisfying human needs, ensuring social equity, and respecting environmental limits. The model reflects Our Common Future's central message, moral imperatives laid out in philosophical texts on needs and equity, and recent scientific insights on environmental limits. The model is in conflict with the popular three-pillar model of sustainable development, which seeks to balance social, environmental, and economic targets. Rather, we argue that sustainable development constitutes a set of constraints on human behaviour, including constraints on economic activity. By identifying indicators, and thresholds, we illustrate that different regions or groups of countries face different challenges. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

▀ Could the Trump era resemble the 1980s? 'Reaganomics' boosted world growth - but not necessarily in the ways people think - and not for emerging markets (EMs), a larger part of today's world economy. Growth then was also aided by factors such as declining interest rates, which are missing today, and we doubt that deregulation will lead to a productivity surge. US asset prices, meanwhile, were depressed in 1981, unlike now, so the big gains of the 1980s are unlikely to be repeated. EM assets should do better than back then, though., ▀ Optimistic observers - and to some extent, markets - have been drawing parallels between the policy mixes of the Trump and Reagan administrations, and talking up the prospects of stronger global growth. But while the US did support world growth in the 1980s, this was arguably more due to Keynesian' demand-side policies than supply-side ones: Reagan's record on supply-side policies was mixed., ▀ The US is still an important driver of global activity, but markets may be too optimistic about the effect of Trump's policies on world growth. Any Trump fiscal stimulus will occur against a much less favourable background than that of the 1980s, when US growth also benefitted from a variety of factors missing now., ▀ It is also unclear whether Trump's administration will tolerate large expansions of the current account and fiscal deficits as the 'price' for more growth. And we are sceptical about the prospects of big gains from deregulation: US economic dynamism has waned, but the policies so far proposed in this area look potentially misdirected., ▀ Over the coming years asset market performance is unlikely to mirror that of the 1980s: valuations suggest less room for dollar appreciation and stock market gains this time around. But emerging market (EM) assets may do better - the soaring dollar and high US rates that hit EMs in the 1980s are unlikely to be repeated. And our analysis suggests even modestly better US growth will support commodity prices and EM growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last year, a central issue in regional economic growth debate has been represented by the empirical analysis of Verdoorn's law related to the long-term dynamic relationship between the rate of growth in output and the productivity growth due to increasing returns. Several papers have tested Verdoorn's law on European countries as well as many other world economies. Recently, attempts have been made to provide foundations for a spatial version of the original law specification. The main contributions were dedicated to the inclusion of spatial dependence in the economic model. Surprisingly, in the literature on Verdoom's law the analysis of the spatial heterogeneity is not often considered. The aim of this paper is the regional analysis of the spatial dependence and heterogeneity in Verdoorn's law, identifying spatial regimes that can be interpreted as clusters of productivity growth in European regions at NUTS 2 level. To pursue this objective, an optimization algorithm for the identification of groups is used. This constitutes a modified version of Simulated Annealing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the role of universities in the economic development of American metropolitan regions during the Great Recession (2007-2009) and the growth period prior to it (2001-2007). It develops a supply-side conceptual framework on the role of universities in technology-led regional economic development. Specifically, this framework highlights three 'university products' that can be explicitly defined and measured: educational services, business services, and new knowledge or technology. The empirical test of this conceptual framework finds that the presence of universities is positively associated with regional economic performance during the Great Recession, mainly via the educational services product. Findings indicate that regions with a higher level of university science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates are more resilient to the economic recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For more than five decades, the federal, state, and local governments have subsidized mass transit systems through sales, gasoline, and property taxes with an expectation that it would improve mobility to low-income citizens, reduce carbon footprints and traffic congestion, and facilitate regional economic growth. However, in times of financial crisis and chronic government budget deficits, the inefficient use of a mass transit system can increase public outcry over the wasteful spending of government funds and taxpayers' monies. To find ways to utilize mass transit systems more efficiently across the United States, this paper aimed to identify the benchmark transit practices that every mass transit system can emulate and then continuously improve its performance. To achieve these goals, this paper analyzed the multiple years of past performances of 262 mass transit agencies in the United States using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index and then provided practical guidelines for enhancing mass transit efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Storage and controlled distribution of water have been key elements of a human strategy to overcome the space and time variability of water, which have been marked by catastrophic droughts and floods throughout the course of civilization. In the United States, the peak of dam building occurred in the mid-20th century with knowledge limited to the scientific understanding and hydrologic records of the time. Ecological impacts were considered differently than current legislative and regulatory controls would potentially dictate. Additionally, future costs such as maintenance or removal beyond the economic design life were not fully considered. The converging risks associated with aging water storage infrastructure and uncertainty in climate in addition to the continuing need for water storage, flood protection, and hydropower result in a pressing need to address the state of dam infrastructure across the nation. Decisions regarding the future of dams in the United States may, in turn, influence regional water futures through groundwater outcomes, economic productivity, migration, and urban growth. We advocate for a comprehensive national water assessment and a formal analysis of the role dams play in our water future. We emphasize the urgent need for environmentally and economically sound strategies to integrate surface and groundwater storage infrastructure in local, regional, and national water planning considerations. A research agenda is proposed to assess dam failure impacts and the design, operation, and need for dams considering both paleo and future climate, utilization of groundwater resources, and the changing societal values toward the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on the author's work, this lecture presents evidence on U.S. income and wealth inequality. It presents series for top income and wealth shares, and the distribution of economic growth by income groups. It discusses the mechanisms behind the evolution of U.S. income and wealth inequality from historical and comparative perspectives. It analyzes the role of public policy and in particular taxation in the evolution of inequality. ( JEL D31, F66, J24) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States, total government spending, and especially government social spending, has increased greatly over the last 50 years. What effect this has had on economic growth is a subject of intense debate among politicians, policymakers, and economists. However, there has been less attention paid to the distributional effects of government spending even though economic inequality has grown greatly over the last generation and much social spending is at least indirectly intended to reduce inequality. The effects of government social spending in the United States on growth in family income at deciles of the income distribution were estimated. The results suggested that social spending but not non-social spending was likely to increase growth in family income per capita measured over 10-year intervals. The largest effects of social spending were for deciles below the median income. At no point in the distribution does social spending have a negative effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While secular stagnation has won many adherents, Toby Nangle offers an alternative understanding of global economics and demography - one that points towards persistently falling inequality and a future that belongs more to workers than to capital. But should we hold our breath for that inflection point? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]