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This paper surveys developments in the literature on trade and inequality over the past decade. I first discuss the impact of trade on nominal income inequality, with a focus on firm heterogeneity and the role of mobility frictions. Then, I provide an overview of the literature on the redistributional role of government in an open economy. Finally, I assess the current state of studies on how trade affects real income inequality through the expenditure channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unsustainable wildlife trade is a major threat to many species, but quantifying trade remains challenging, as seizure data provides an incomplete understanding. For this reason, integrating multiple types of information, including interviews with actors involved in trade, is crucial if we are to understand the problem better. Hence, in this study, we digitized Bangladesh Forest Department tiger seizure records to identify trade routes and interviewed 163 individuals involved in trafficking tigers through Bangladesh's air, sea and land ports, including poachers, smugglers, and traders. We identified six ports used to import tigers, 14 ports used for tiger export and three ports showing bi‐directional trade. Elite Bangladeshis were the most important consumer group, and tigers were sourced from populations in NE India, Myanmar and Bangladesh Sundarbans to supply domestic demand. Tiger products were exported to 14 countries, including seven G20 nations, with Bangladeshi expatriates as the consumer group in three countries (United Kingdom, Germany and Qatar). Rising economic development in Bangladesh over the last decade, combined with deep‐rooted cultural ties to tiger consumption, has led to a rise in domestic demand. Additionally, rapid growth in international transport links has increased smuggling and connected local traders with global markets, increasing the complexity of global trade. These findings suggest Bangladesh is poised to play a pivotal role in tiger conservation over the next decade, requiring strong national strategies to reduce trade opportunities, disrupt networks and weaken demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution investigates the relationships between financial development, trade openness and economic growth on a panel of four North African countries (Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt), over a 5‐year period from 1991 to 2015. In fact, using the generalized method of moment (GMM) in a panel data analysis, we found strong evidence of a positive link between trade openness and economic growth. Moreover, we found that trade openness appears to be working as a complement to financial development and that its effect is more pronounced in the presence of the financial development variable. Therefore, the policy implications of this study appeared clear. Hence, improvement efforts need to be driven by local‐level reforms to ensure the development of domestic financial system and take full advantage of the technology transfer induced by international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multilateral trading system, first established formally in 1947 with the goal of bringing about sustainable peace and greater prosperity through increased cross‐border commerce underpinned by globally agreed upon rules, has contributed significantly to economic development and reduced poverty. However, as the global trading system enters the 2020s it cannot rely on past success and must adapt to a rapidly changing world, one that requires both more and different kinds of inclusion in order to address new challenges around inequality and global economic and geopolitical shocks. To address these new challenges the World Trade Organization (WTO) must be updated and reformed by its member governments, who must also recognise that many current global challenges have linkages across trade, tax, environment, and health areas which require increased coordination across global bodies. Further, the challenges of growing domestic inequality in many countries, while a domestic policy concern, will have significant impact on the political will to undertake the necessary updating and reform of the multilateral trading system and the required enhanced coordination with other international bodies and agreements. The recent positive outcomes from the WTO's 12th Ministerial Conference in June of 2022 show that global cooperation on trade issues is possible. Building on this success, the WTO can reshape itself to be fairer and more resilient and better able to address current global and domestic challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efficient allocation of resources and transition towards cleaner sources of energy are among the key factors in minimizing the negative externalities arising from the growing dependency on fossil fuels. Moreover, environmentally benign trade policies are crucial due to the rapid expansion in global trade and comparative advantage. To explore the relationship between global trade and Consumption‐Based Carbon Emissions (CBCE) in China in the context of renewable energy consumption and energy efficiency from 1990 Q1 to 2020 Q4, this paper employs the dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lags (Dynamic ARDL) model to evaluate the connection between international trade, renewable energy usage, energy efficiency, and CBCE, with the Kernel‐Based Regularized Least Squares analysis being used to determine the causal association. The findings reveal that GDP and imports are directly linked with CBCE in the long run, while exports, energy efficiency, and renewable energy consumption have a negative significant long‐run and short‐run influence on CBCE. In addition, exports help in the reduction of CBCE by sharing and adapting environmentally friendly technologies adopted in, for example, renewable energy and ecological advancements. Renewable energy promotes the quality of the environment, which is attributable to the performance of renewable energy and environmentally friendly technologies that directly stimulate the reduction of CBCE emissions. By cutting CBCE, energy efficiency tends to boost environmental quality. The research findings have noteworthy policy implications; trade enhances the quality of environment by introducing lower energy intensive production methods and technology that support sustainable development. As a result, this study advocated quite stringent policies in terms of aligning international trade orientation with environmental quality policy in China. Furthermore, energy efficiency policies are required to lower CBCE by focusing on high‐energy‐using industries and providing alternative clean energy sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the potential for South Africa to become an engine for intra‐regional trade and industrial development in Southern Africa. It focuses on new backward linkages that can be created from South African exports of final products to producers of intermediate inputs in other Southern African countries. We do so by identifying South Africa's lead products, where it has formed its own GVCs, and, in turn, earmarking intermediate inputs used in the production of these lead products. Using Revealed Comparative Advantage and Unit Cost analysis, we identify Southern African countries that could supply the identified imported intermediate inputs more competitively than South Africa's existing partners and kickstart regional integration. We explore issues around the nature of linkages, supplier capabilities and industrial policies in the region, with special reference to the identified product value chains. Focusing on the agricultural sector—a key regional priority with immense potential for industrial growth and large‐scale employment—we also identify existing agricultural lead products in South Africa, and the 'new markets' to which South Africa can export. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade in services has become the most dynamic segment of international trade. This paper examines the competitiveness of services exports in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2005–2019 using revealed comparative advantage approach. The analysis shows that although SSA has a comparative advantage in traditional services, that is travel and transport, it has remained less competitive compared to other regions globally, and its share of world services exports is negligible. Moreover, SSA has not developed competitiveness in modern commercial services and, hence, continue to perform poorly. The results suggest only Nigeria and Kenya have so far developed comparative advantage in financial services. SSA's dismal performance of services exports can be attributed to various factors such as technological and infrastructure constraints, protectionist and regulatory barriers. There is need to rethink strategies of revamping and diversifying services esports to spur Africa's trade and economic transformation. These include leveraging the opportunities availed by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Unexploited opportunities include Africa's rich cultural diversity, recreation, business and conferencing services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agri‐food trade has expanded considerably over decades, with a remarkable increase in the market share of developing countries. The upward trend in trade flows has been parallel to the proliferation of non‐tariff measures, particularly of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures in the agri‐food sector. SPS measures may have a dual impact on trade, that is. standards as catalysts versus standards as barriers, and the net effect is likely to depend on the level of economic development of countries involved. We investigate whether the trade effects of SPS measures are correlated with the economic development of trading partners. In particular, we disentangle the trade effects of SPS measures implemented by developed and developing countries and look at differential impacts due to a mismatch in the economic development of trading partners. Using a structural gravity approach on bilateral trade and regulation data, we conclude that SPS measures are catalysts for developing importers, whereas no evidence is found for developed importers. We also find a pro‐trade effect of SPS measures when traders have different levels of economic development. Our findings have important policy implications: sharing SPS measures is strategic for economies characterised by different abilities to alter trade terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been 30 years since Central Asian '‐stan' countries, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, declared their independence in 1991. The Republics have chosen various transition paths from centrally planned to the market‐based economic system. The research found that Central Asian leaders' protectionist policy, on top of the landlocked geographical environment, made trade costly, rendering these countries further isolated. Consequently, economic development slows down, unemployment increases and poverty rate extremes. Eventually, the isolated region (relatively, excluding Kazakhstan) is imprisoned in a low‐income trap and framed into a vicious circle. As a solution for tackling high‐trade costs in the region, this paper utilises the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling to simulate the impacts of implementing policy‐targeted scenarios. The study presents that tariff reduction/elimination and trade facilitation policies could flourish the region by bringing significant economic welfare and robust GDP growth. The trade facilitation scenarios impact the region's economy much more positively than do tariff liberalisation scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of the real exchange rate (RER) on international trade, economic development and growth. We summarize the main conceptual issues, briefly discuss the relevance of the RER as an instrument of development policy, provide an overview of the macroeconomic and microeconomic mechanisms that link the RER to trade and long‐run growth and development, analyse the challenges – especially the disconnect between theory and data – that often arise in empirical applications, and discuss new avenues for future research. In the process, we present some updated estimates and illustrative figures. The mechanisms through which the RER influences long‐run growth and structural change remains a promising area of research and the relevance of individual channels in different contexts deserves much more careful investigation. Greater data availability should help fill some of these gaps in our understanding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corruption has varying effects on international trade flows. Through the lenses of the institutional and transaction costs theories, we propose a novel institutional analysis of foreign aid as a formal institution that moderates the negative impact of corruption on international trade. We investigate this framework using a sample of the imports and exports of 30 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) member countries and their 150 trading partners from 1995 to 2018. We analyze two main types of bilateral foreign aid within this framework: official development assistance and aid for trade. We present three main findings. First, the trading partners' corruption has a negative impact on OECD bilateral imports and exports. Second, both forms of foreign aid moderate the negative effect of the trading partners' corruption on OECD countries' exports. These findings confirm that OECD member countries are willing to export to very corrupt countries. Third, official development assistance does not moderate the relationship between corruption and imports, meaning that OECD countries do not import from corrupt locations. However, aid for trade still moderates the negative impact of corruption on OCED countries' imports. Overall, we confirm that foreign aid negatively moderates the adverse effect of corruption on exports but not on imports. Thus, foreign aid as a formal institution deserves more attention from OECD policymakers and managers of MNEs as a mechanism for reducing corruption and boosting international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Services constitute a significant part of GDP and overall trade in modern economies, but little is known about the magnitude of its obstacles. Great effort has been made to establish measures of services trade frictions on the part of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank. A customary way of using these measures is to employ them in log‐linear regressions to gauge their effect on services trade flows. This may be problematic to the extent that these measures do not capture ad valorem (tariff type price increasing) trade costs. Hence, it is natural to believe that available services trade cost measures may have a nonlinear impact on services trade flows. The present paper documents that this is the case, using nonparametric estimates to quantify the direct impact of important trade cost measures captured by the Services Trade Restrictiveness Index of the OECD on cross‐border services transaction costs and trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding economic growth has been a primary pursuit for generations of economists. Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 10570–10575) charted new territory in this pursuit by using bipartite international trade networks to characterize the economic complexity of a country based on the capabilities implied by the products it exports. The resulting Economic Complexity Index (ECI) correlates strongly with income levels and predicts subsequent economic growth with some statistical precision. We propose an innovation‐adjusted ECI (i‐ECI) that uses a high‐resolution patent–trade concordance to construct trade networks weighted by domestic and international patent application flows. The i‐ECI thus reflects firms' decisions about where to seek patent protection on industry‐specific inventions, allows for heterogeneity in the relative importance of patenting across industries, and implicitly captures firms' perceived innovation potential in the recipient countries. Although the i‐ECI is highly correlated with the ECI (correlation coefficient greater than 92%), it is a stronger and more statistically precise predictor of economic growth than the unadjusted ECI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a dynamic factor model with time‐varying parameters and stochastic volatility to decompose the variance of exports and imports over time for 22 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries spanning the quarterly period of 1960:01–2016:04 into contributions from country‐ and region‐specific uncertainties and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that, while idiosyncratic uncertainty has a dominant role in explaining the volatility of international trade, global, country‐, and region‐specific uncertainties drive around 40% of the volatility of real exports and imports, with the impact of the latter three uncertainties rising in explanatory power during episodes of crises. Our results have important policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gravity models, popular for estimating spatial interactions, assume independent spatial interactions from locations to all other locations and, therefore, overlook potential latent multilateral influences in play. This research combines self‐organizing map (SOM) and trajectory analysis to classify patterns of spatial interactions and trace changes in the patterns simultaneously across all locations and decipher the development and dependence of multilateral interactions in space and time. We use international trading among 207 countries from 1900 to 2014 to demonstrate the proposed SOM–trajectory analysis. We create SOMs of annual international trade for all countries, trace each country's changes in trading patterns over 115 years, and compare the trajectories for countries. The combined SOM–trajectory analysis elicits the hidden trading development and geographic influences brought into play. The proposed method is adaptable to other domains of spatial interactions (e.g., immigration) to characterize the temporal patterns of multilateral spatial interactions at locations individually or contextually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analytically examines the structure and characteristics of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and African trade networks by applying network analysis techniques through a critical and in‐depth description of the international trade of Eastern African countries as part of the world trade network. Sixty‐four countries' trade flow data between 2000 and 2018 from the International Monetary Fund, was used, and the network indices indicate that the BRI significantly enhances the trade network's connectivity. The empirical results indicate that density, the degree of centralization, and average node intensity are typically growing, and China is in the central position of the network. Furthermore, East African intra‐regional trade tends to be more densely connected under the BRI. This, in effect, demonstrates that the BRI countries have experienced a rise in intra‐regional trade at different levels of economic development. Therefore, this study recommends that policymakers should consider the BRI's critical role in reforming trade policies to build a resilient and sustainable African economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Korean government has tried to promote export and attract foreign direct investment (FDI) since the 1990s. Sino‐North Korea trade values jumped during the 2000s, and China became North Korea's largest trade partner. China's FDI in North Korea began to increase abruptly since the late 2000s. The mining sector led China's investment in and import from North Korea. Although China has dominated any other country in FDI inflows and international trade with North Korea, the former's contribution to the economic development of the latter has not been so substantial in the light of the composition of international trade and FDI inflows. To materialise the potential of Sino‐North Korea trade and Chinese firms' investment in North Korea further, it is essential to improve North Korea's diplomatic relationship with China. In addition, the North Korean government needs to pay attention to upgrading the structure and composition of bilateral trade and FDI inflows from China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier studies on threshold effects of financial sector development on international trade have relied on rudimentary approach which assumes exogenous inclusion of quadratic square terms of finance. However, findings from such studies are not instructive as it obscures country's unique domestic conditions such as differences in the levels of financial sector development. By relying on 46 countries in Africa over the period 1980–2016, this study employs a sample splitting and threshold estimation approach which allows finance–international trade to be mediated by the level of domestic financial sector development. We find evidence of threshold effects for a number of the countries suggesting that the precise impact of financial development on international trade is threshold–specific given the various indicators of finance. The study highlights that whether finance supports or limits international trade crucially depends on the attainment of a certain threshold which is both country and indicator–specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article restores an important figure to the study of eighteenth‐century British political and economic thought. A prominent Scottish financial administrator and author resident in Hanoverian London, Adam Anderson (1692–1765) evaluated the expansion of the British commercial empire in the eighteenth century. Anderson developed a sophisticated set of historical arguments about early modern British governance and its relationship to economic growth and societal development. Anderson focused on the evolution of Britain's international commerce, imperial networks and modes of governance. He connected the 1707 Anglo‐Scottish Union, the development of overseas trade and empire‐building. Despite the fact that Anderson set out a nuanced and compelling analysis of Britain's financial revolution that eventually stabilized powerful structures of public and private credit, he has not received significant historiographical attention. This article elucidates his status as a leading historian of the early modern global expansion of European commerce and one of the most widely read and influential commentators on the eighteenth‐century British empire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Korean economy has entered a period of relatively sluggish growth after experiencing very dynamic and high economic growth since the 1970s. The recent growth rate has been around 3 percent, which is similar to that in many advanced countries. According to growth accounting, economic growth is possible because of input increases and productivity increases. Productivity growth is much more important than input increases for long‐term economic growth. We investigated whether there was a structural break in the Korean manufacturing industry and whether the main factor contributing to economic growth shifted from input to productivity. Using various econometric methods, we tested this question and found some interesting results. First, there was an important change in the 1990s, and the productivity trend seemed to show a big structural break at that time. Second, an input increase was the main factor contributing to economic growth before the break and productivity became more important after the break. Third, there was also a major change in the relationship between international trade and productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the factors driving manufacturing growth accelerations in a sample of 134 developing countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We first identify growth acceleration episodes of manufacturing value added (MVA) by their year of initiation and according to a country's income classification. We then estimate a probit model to explain what factors predict these MVA growth accelerations. Our results show that human capital and institutions represent contextual factors that favor the growth of manufacturing, together with macroeconomic policies related to investment, and openness to foreign trade and capital. We also find that most of these factors not only foster episodic accelerations of industry, but they contribute as well to a sustained process of industrialization that characterized the process of economic growth of a few successful countries over the period 1970 to 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the drivers of the volatility of international trade. It decomposes trade growth into six components that have gained attention in the literature and studies their contribution to overall volatility. It yields three main findings. First, trade volatility in the 1990–2015 period is mostly explained by a common factor, changes in the gravity‐related characteristics of a country's trading partners and country‐specific factors. Product composition and the identity of trading partners appear to be less important in explaining volatility. Second, the pre‐2009 decline in volatility and the post‐2009 increase in volatility appear to be driven by different factors. The former is mostly explained by a decline in the variance of country‐specific factors; the latter appears to be driven by an increase in the volatility of common factors. Third, diversification is a likely force behind the steady decline in the volatility stemming from country‐specific factors, especially in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) have become a significant element of the governance of international trade and production. Even though VSS are not mandatory (required by law), in practice they are often necessary for producers to participate in global value chains. Finally, VSS are often considered costly for producers. This article provides an overview of the global VSS landscape, and addresses the following questions: how producer‐friendly are VSS, and how do their practices towards producers vary with relevant features of VSS institutional design? The analysis is empirical, and it is based on a data collection project called Standards Map (SM), launched in 2011 by the International Trade Centre (ITC). The analysis covers a population of up to 180 VSS. This large‐n approach allows for a macro‐perspective which complements the existing literature characterized by micro‐level studies. Our analysis documents a significant heterogeneity in producer‐friendly practices across VSS. We find that participation in meta‐governance organizations (such as ISEAL full membership) is strongly associated with producer‐friendly practices. Moreover, the location of headquarters in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) member countries, the engagement of buyers in the board or management of the scheme and the influence of producers in decision‐making are also positively associated with our measures of producer friendliness, although these relationships are found to be less robust. The dimension of VSS we have focused on is just one element of the information contained in the SM database. Other relevant dimensions of standards systems, such as the structure of requirements, their product scope—and other aspects of institutional design, such as verification procedures, stakeholder engagement, harmonization or convergence vs. competition between different schemes—can all be analysed using the database. We hope the descriptive analysis undertaken in this article will help the research community to make better use of this source of information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we assess the importance of exports and global value chain (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive data set, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to show that in a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEECs with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyse the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analysed period of 1995–2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.Jel classificationC23, F21, O33 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China and Pakistan have initiated a mega project with the name of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This study examines how local residence support of CPEC is shaped in Pakistan. This study employs a social exchange theory to explain how perceived impacts affect an individual's level of support for CPEC development. Findings reveal that social exchange theory fits the data well by confirming that the more residents perceive impacts positively, the more they are likely to support CPEC. Data were collected online using the Google platform from 280 citizens, residing in all provinces of Pakistan. Findings of this study validate most of the hypothesis. Positive impact shows significant effect on personal benefit and support for CPEC development. Similarly, personal benefit also shows significant effect on support for CPEC development. However, negative impact shows insignificant effect on personal benefit and support for CPEC development. Findings of this study will guide the government officials and policymakers of CPEC about the perception of local people residence, both positive and negative impact. Policymakers can use the findings of this study to gain local citizen's support for the CPEC development projects and designs policies accordingly for the future projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how technical barriers to trade (TBTs) affect firm exports. The implementation of the "child‐resistance" decision (CR decision) in the EU offers an ideal quasi‐natural experiment to identify the causal effect of TBTs on firm performance. Using data on Chinese firms that exported cigarette lighters between 2004 and 2010, we show that firms exporting to the EU not only adjust their product quality to meet the requirements in the CR decision, but also upgrade their product quality in other dimensions. However, both the export value and export volume to the EU decline. At the same time, less productive exporters are forced to exit from the EU market. Lastly, heterogeneous effects of the CR decision are documented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Asian Politics & Policy is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Empirical studies on international trade highlight the role of innovation on international exchange but do not capture the effect of technological innovation when unobservable common factors (UCFs) are considered. This paper examines the long‐run relationship between technological innovation and international exchange using panel data for eight African countries over the period 1981–2013. The non‐stationarity and cointegration between technological innovation, international exchange, public investment, real gross domestic income and foreign direct investment were examined, controlling for cross‐sectional dependence and heterogeneity between countries. The results suggest that technological innovation in Africa remains low after controlling for UCFs, while public investment, real gross domestic product and foreign direct investment have significant impact on international exchange. Moreover, the results from the homogeneous and heterogeneous estimates, with and without UCFs, show that ignoring UCFs is likely to bias the coefficients. These findings reveal that African countries should invest more in public infrastructures and research and development to upgrade their capability To play an active role in the international market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent mining boom represents one of the largest external shocks to the Australian economy in its post‐war history. Although most agree that it had a positive effect on the Australian economy as well as on people's living standards, there is disagreement over the extent to which this boom has caused deindustrialisation and the so‐called Dutch disease in Australia. Our empirical findings support the presence of Dutch disease nationally for Australia using data for the period 1984–2013. Regionally, the results show that Dutch disease was concentrated mainly in the eastern and southern states of Australia—Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Identifying which socioeconomic factors can explain differences in national sociometabolic profiles, and quantifying how well they do it, is relevant to the question of whether national‐level material flows can be forecast accurately enough to inform policy. In this study, we employed panel analyses to test a wide range of socioeconomic variables with respect to their ability to explain variations in the material flows trajectories between different nations. We found that, apart from the long‐established explanatory variables of population and affluence (gross domestic product [GDP] per capita), additional variables do little to explain the remaining variation between countries. The main explanation proposed for this is that, as product supply chains are increasingly globalized, expecting national‐level material flows to closely reflect national‐level development is not appropriate. The effects of globalized trade on national material flows are profound, and come via a number of different mechanisms, discussed in the study. This implies that attempting long‐term prediction of national demand for primary materials is unlikely to be a fruitful activity, and that further efforts to refine existing models will probably not greatly improve results. Conversely, forecasting material flows at the global scale may not be unreasonable, but would be contingent on having accurate forecasts of population and GDP. The linkage of national material flows to the global economy has important implications for the efficacy of attempting to materially affect global sustainability via policy measures taken in isolation, at the national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In reviewing the literature on the Belt and Road Initiative, attention is paid to the antecedents of China's Silk Road revival, the domestic driving forces, and the perennial search for energy security behind the policy initiated in 2013. After detailing and interpreting the Initiative's timeline, key aspects of the government's policy are analysed; its financial arrangements are noted; and the initial 64 countries covered by the Belt and Road identified. The signature Land Belt and the Sea Road components are analysed using an array of tools: economic corridors, blue economic passages, and economic circles. Reference is made to specific projects and the varied reactions stemming from other countries to the implications of China's policy implementation. Finally, an assessment of the Initiative's first five years is made before looking ahead to consider how it may dovetail with other government programs as Beijing addresses the next 45 years of its planned life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author examines the effects of local preferences and internal boundaries. It notes that individuals from different cultural backgrounds might have more difficulty in realizing mutually beneficial exchanges due to barriers in language, customs, beliefs or other related reasons. It adds that language differences between trading partners can give rise to barriers to communication.

The paper investigates the impact of Asia's demand rebalancing and supply‐side productivity changes on long‐term economic growth in Asia and worldwide. Results from a panel vector autoregression model show that a productivity–neutral demand‐rebalancing shock has no permanent effect on Asian output, whereas labour productivity shocks have significant, positive and permanent effects. Simulations using a global intertemporal multisector general equilibrium model suggest that labour productivity shocks increase the foreign GDP over time, but rebalancing shocks have a negative international spillover effect. In addition, labour productivity shocks help in rebalancing. Structural reforms promoting labour productivity growth along with rebalancing policies across Asia can achieve higher economic growth worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a simple procedure for general equilibrium comparative static analysis of gravity models. Non‐linear solvers are replaced by (constrained) regressions using theoretical properties of the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator. Our GEPPML procedure can readily be implemented in any software capable of estimating constrained Poisson models. The procedure accommodates calibrated as well as estimated trade costs while using the estimation power of structural gravity to generate GE comparative statics. Using GEPPML, we quantify the effects of a hypothetical removal of all international borders while preserving the impact of geography on trade. We find that trade liberalisation has reaped at most half the potential world gains from trade in 2002 manufacturing. A complementary counterfactual experiment simulates the removal of the border between Canada and US, thus contributing to the famous "border puzzle" literature in a multicountry setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the light of the initiative of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) to introduce a common currency by 2020, this paper investigates the intricacies of the business cycles synchronicity among the six countries. Given: (i) the rising importance of trade and cooperation with China; (ii) the consideration of the Euro as a potential anchor currency and a vehicle for trade with the Eurozone; and (iii) the importance of Nigeria as the largest country of the group and the main supplier of oil, we investigate the relative importance of these three major players in having their business cycles linked with the group. In addition, we investigate the underlying determinants of the business cycles synchronicity among the WAMZ countries on a pairwise basis. Results show a clear dominance of China's business cycle synchronicity with the WAMZ over Europe's and Nigeria's. Trade integration emerges as the key underlying factor of the common cycle observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, the global tourism network (GTN) is studied in order to gain insight about its structure and the interactions between source and destination markets. To concentrate on the main source and destination markets for each country, only its top k inbound and outbound flows are considered. The distribution of these most important ties in international tourism seems to be scale‐free, with some occurrence of reciprocity, large transitivity, and high‐degree centralization. The GTN shows a clustered structure determined by geographical as well as trade and cultural factors. Each major global and regional power seems to have a certain tourism sphere of influence. The network has a small world character and a high degree of geographic homophily, with more links within continents than between continents. Exponential random graph models have been fit to explain the observed global structure of the network based on its local interactions, and a number of significant motifs have been identified. The picture that results is a GTN that emerges from superimposed local processes in which tourism flows between countries is determined from multiple independent individual decisions made at the local level. This insight that global tourism patterns are driven by local processes is a major contribution of this research and can help develop strategic plans and cooperation partnerships at the national and regional levels, involving private and public stakeholders and targeting specific source and destination markets. The indicators computed using network analysis of global tourism flows can also be used to complement and enrich the information provided by current tourism statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that pure Ricardian trade can account for the empirical evidence that domestic growth is more affected by foreign growth than by trade openness. To do this, we develop a two-country model involving a backward economy that exchanges intermediate goods with a faster growing country. We obtain three main results regarding growth and welfare of the backward economy: (i) the growth-enhancing comparative advantage is facilitated by faster foreign growth; (ii) the growth rate may be negatively affected or unaffected by a domestic tariff, while it is always positively impacted by foreign growth; and (iii) a domestic tariff could be welfare-improving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Politics & Policy is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

ABSTRACT: Following United States withdrawal, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) is likely to be replaced or complemented by a series of bilateral deals between the US and TPP partners. In this case, TPP will shape trade, finance and public policy globally even without formal US participation. Proponents of TPP emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after 10 years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the USA to 13 per cent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries, excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. This article provides alternative projections of the TPP's economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which allows for changes in employment and income distribution. Using this model, the authors obtain very different results. They find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full‐employment models, and are negative for Japan and the USA. More importantly, they find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper looks at the link between the quality of economic institutions and innovation, and innovation and growth. We construct a measure of the innovation content of individual manufacturing industries and show that countries with stronger economic institutions specialize in more innovation‐intensive industries. Our results also provide evidence that industries involving higher levels of innovation grow relatively faster in countries with better economic institutions. The results suggest that innovation is an important channel through which higher quality economic institutions contribute to better growth performance in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mexican President Felipe Calderón took office in December 2006. From the outset, his government deployed an aggressive security policy to fight drug trafficking organizations in what became known as the “Mexican Drug War.” The policy earned considerable criticism since a heavy number of unintended casualties resulted from the frontal assault waged against the drug cartels. In this article, we evaluate the effects of the Mexican Drug War on Mexican states’ economic growth. To do so, we study the effects of the rise in the homicide rate and changes in a state‐level approximation of the military budget on economic growth. Using dynamic panel data econometrics, we find that while the growth in the number of homicides had negative and significant effects on state GDP growth, state military expenditures aimed at fighting drug trafficking had a positive and significant effect on the per capita economic growth rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The linkages between international trade and economic performance has received significant attention from policymakers and researchers. There is consensus in the literature that improved trade openness corresponds to improved economic growth. In this study, we argue that trade openness has a significant impact on population health outcomes and financing. The study employed a balanced panel data for 42 sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1995–2013. Population health status was measured by total life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate and under‐five mortality rate. Three main estimation models were used: (1) fixed effect (FE); (2) random effect (RE); and (3) the generalized method of moments (GMM) in estimating the relationships. The results showed that trade openness has a positive and significant effect on life expectancy, a negative and significant effect on the infant mortality rate and a negative impact of trade openness on the under‐five mortality rate. A positive effect of trade openness on health financing was also realized. The findings of the study support international trade integration and emphasize the need for countries to be conscious of gains from trade within sub‐sectors of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on resurgence in interest in input-output (I-O) analysis within the global research community. Topics discussed include commitment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to develop indicators of trade in value added, challenge of constructing an Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) system and consequences of the implementation of the 2008 revision of the System of National Accounts.

This paper serves as an introduction to this special issue on the use of multiregional inputoutput modeling in assessments of natural resource use and resource use efficiency. Due to globalization, growth in trade has outpaced growth in global gross domestic product (GDP). As a consequence, impacts of consumption of a country increasingly take place abroad. Various methods have been developed to perform so-called footprint analyses. We argue that global multiregional input-output (GMRIO) analysis has the largest potential to provide a consistent accounting framework to calculate a variety of different footprint indicators. The state of the art in GMRIO has, however, various shortcomings, such as limited sector and regional detail and incomplete extensions. The work presented in this special issue addresses a number of such problems and how to possibly overcome them, focusing on the construction of a new GMRIO database (EXIOBASE V3). This database includes long time series in both current and constant prices, a high level of product and sector detail, a physical representation of the world economy, and allows analyzing which footprints out of the many possible indicators provide most information for policy making. Various options for empirical analyses are presented in this special issue. Finally, we analyze how GMRIOs can be further standardized and gradually moved from the scientific to the official statistical domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global multiregional input-output databases (GMRIOs) became the standard tool for tracking environmental impacts through global supply chains. To date, several GMRIOs are available, but the numerical results differ. This paper considers how GMRIOs can be made more robust and authoritative. We show that GMRIOs need detail in environmentally relevant sectors. On the basis of a review of earlier work, we conclude that the highest uncertainty in footprint analyses is caused by the environmental data used in a GMRIO, followed by the size of country measured in gross domestic product (GDP) as fraction of the global total, the structure of the national table, and only at the end the structure of trade. We suggest the following to enhance robustness of results. In the short term, we recommend using the Single country National Accounts Consistent footprint approach, that uses official data for extensions and the national table for the country in question, combined with embodiments in imports calculated using a GMRIO. In a time period of 2 to 3 years, we propose work on harmonized environmental data for water, carbon, materials, and land, and use the aggregated Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Inter-Country Input-Output GMRIO as default in combination with detailing procedures developed in, for example, the EXIOBASE and Eora projects. In the long term, solutions should be coordinated by the international organizations such as the United Nations (UN) Statistical Division, OECD, and Eurostat. This could ensure that when input-output tables and trade data of individual countries are combined, that the global totals are consistent and that bilateral trade asymmetries are resolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We empirically analyze the causality relationship between economic growth and international trade using new advancements in the econometric methodology for heterogeneous panel data applied to Latin American countries. First, we test for dependencies between the units of cross‐section (countries) and then we test for cointegration between growth and openness. Finally, we test for Granger causality using a heterogeneous panel data test. The results reject the hypothesis of general, unidirectional, and homogeneous relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Latin American countries as a group. However, considering heterogeneity, we found significant evidence of causality from trade liberalization to economic growth in Chile, Peru, Nicaragua, and Uruguay; we have found bidirectional causality in Mexico and Honduras; and a causal relationship from economic growth to trade liberalization in Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a framework to assess the relative importance of three key sources of productivity growth that international trade research focuses on: (1) inter‐industry specialization; (2) intra‐industry reallocation of resources across heterogeneous firms; and (3) technological progress. We illustrate how to apply the framework by deciphering the productivity dynamics of the Swiss manufacturing industry. We find that intra‐industry reallocations are the most important source of growth in aggregate total factor productivity, spurred by the productivity growth of large, incumbent firms and the entry of new firms. Inter‐industry specialization and general technological progress, nevertheless, remain important supplementary sources of productivity growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reflects on the career contributions of Professor Chris Milner to the literature on international trade and economic development. As such, it not only provides an overview of a life's work, but also sets the context for the nine papers which follow. All of these were specially written for this Special Issue of The World Economy, and all relate to different areas that Professor Milner worked in. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper addresses two research issues to which Chris Milner has contributed: the role of trade policy in economic development, and the particular development case of Mauritius. On the first issue, the focus is on understanding why so few low‐income countries, especially in Africa, have achieved a sustained level of export diversification. The paper argues that the standard “Washington Consensus” advice on trade policy placed too much emphasis on liberalisation alone and neglected the important role of government policy, in particular the potential to use targeted input subsidies to support the development of export sectors. Mauritius is then discussed as an example of relatively successful subsidy policies that enabled diversification of exports: indeed the only African country to achieve this in a sustained manner. Subsidies are not advocated as a panacea, and it is recognised that they are not always feasible or effective, but they can be part of an export diversification strategy that supports economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A major concern for developing economies is a dependence on commodities when their prices are volatile as a major change in the international commodity price can have important implications for economic growth. While some cross‐country studies exist, there is lack of country specific studies that take into account the different characteristics of low‐income economies. This paper contributes to the growing literature by considering the case of Malawi and the macroeconomic impact of price shocks in its major export crop of tobacco. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach on quarterly Malawian data from 1980:1 to 2012:4, the paper establishes that a positive tobacco price shock has a significant positive impact on the country's gross domestic product, decreasing consumer prices and inducing real exchange rate appreciation. The results are robust to alternative specifications of a SVAR on difference stationary data and cointegrating VAR. The cointegrating VAR confirms the existence of a long run‐relationship among the variables and causality that runs from tobacco prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]