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While all industrial nations have been plagued by the setback to economic growth since the mid-1970s, a wide range of variation marks the economic performance, policy outputs and policy outcomes of Western nations. The basic question addressed in this paper is the extent to which economic, socioeconomic and political variables account for the differences in economic performance, unemployment, public debt and the growth of social security expenditure. In general, the forces which shape public policies in periods of economic crisis tend to be different in character from the major determinants of policy-making in periods of prosperity. The analysis does not support the view that bourgeois and socialist governments produce clear-cut policy differences. It suggests that the major determinants of policies are the power relations in extra-parliamentary arenas, the level of national economic strength prior to the crisis, the extent to which 'solidaristic' values characterize the political culture, and the extent to which a correspondence exists between the power relationships in the political 'superstructure' and in the party system and industrial arenas. An expanding capitalist order is, in theory, not incompatible with low unemployment and a developed welfare state. However, the governments' room to manoeuvre is strongly restricted by political and technological developments. One of the major political restrictions is the `paradoxical' outcome of elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although a number of studies published in the economic history literature discuss the development, organization and function of the London Stock Exchange, there is little quantitative evidence on how well this market functioned. This is a significant omission, since the finance literature provides a well developed set of criteria against which the performance of capital markets may be judged. In particular, the finance literature emphasizes the importance of the efficient impounding of information into market prices. So-called 'weak-form efficiency' is the least demanding version and is therefore the logical starting point. This paper reports the results of weak-form efficiency tests of the London market for 3 per cent Consols from 1821 to 1860. The tests are based on over 10,000 daily price changes, The evidence presented here is similar to that found in contemporary markets, suggesting that the market for 3 per cent Consols was efficient in the weak-form sense. From a finance perspective, this market is of interest, given the institutional differences between it and contemporary markets. From an economic history perspective, this security is of special interest, given its frequent use in economic history analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents an analysis of the dynamic effects of monetary shock on the level of output of a small and open economy. The adjustment path following monetary expansion is characterized by rising wages and prices which contribute to a rising real wage for labour as it returns to its previous long-run level, increasing output. As prices rise, the rate of inflation falls. Thus, the adjustment path is characterized by falling inflation and rising output. This analysis is significant as a contribution towards integrating modern labour market theory with exchange rate and balance of payments work. Expectations are important in the dynamic analysis of the paper. It is desirable that expectations be endogenous as they should be affected by recent and current disturbances. The domestic country is large enough in the market for the domestic good to affect its price but it is small in the market for the foreign good leaving foreign currency prices exogenous to domestic activity. Domestic wages and prices are assumed to adjust slowly to their long-run equilibrium values implying short-run disequilibrium in goods and labour markets. Output is assumed to be determined by the minimum of demand and supply.

This paper speculates that a linear causal chain runs from the natural resource endowment to the landholding system, the type of political state, the choice of development strategy and economic performance. It suggests that resource-deficient countries tend to have peasant-dominated landholding systems which foster autonomous political states and growth-promoting economic linkages. Such countries out-perform resource-rich ones which have more varied landholding patterns which emphasise conflicts over rents and foster factional political states and weaker economic linkages. The preoccupation with rents in resource-rich countries impedes beneficial land reform and creates inefficient industry in a counter-productive effort to create non-farm jobs. Resource-deficient countries cannot afford such inefficient transfers and pursue a development strategy which uses scarce resources more effectively. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is widespread evidence that pro-cyclical fiscal policies have been prevalent in developing countries and often in some industrial nations. It is therefore surprising that, in contrast to the wealth of studies on the sources of pro-cyclical policy, potential consequences of such seemingly suboptimal policies have been largely ignored in the existing literature. By utilising a comprehensive set of indicators from 114 countries for 1950-2010, we aim to address the following important question: does it matter whether a country adopts a pro-cyclical fiscal policy stance rather than a counter-cyclical one? Our results produce a resounding 'yes' to this question. We find that fiscally pro-cyclical countries have lower rates of economic growth, higher rates of output volatility and higher rates of inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper introduces a new monthly euro Area-wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area growth cycle which is composed of nine leading series and derived from a one-sided bandpass filter. The main findings are that (i) the GDP growth cycle in the euro area can be well tracked, in a timely manner and at monthly frequency, by a reference growth cycle indicator (GCI) derived from industrial production excluding construction, (ii) the ALI reliably leads turning points in the GCI by 5 months and (iii) longer leading components of the ALI are good predictors of the GCI up to 9 months ahead. A real-time case study on the ALI's capabilities for signalling turning points in the euro area growth cycle from 2007 to 2011 confirms these findings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the North Africa region, using a panel regression and different indicators of financial development. We find that the relation depends on the type of the indicator of financial development. In fact, while both financial institutions and markets in Morocco and Tunisia have a positive effect on the economic growth, only the financial markets in Egypt will improve economic growth by increasing the supply of financial services. For Algeria, the banking system has a positive effect on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper, devoted to the study of globalisation, analyses two distinct but closely related issues: First, it aims at evaluating disparities in the degree of globalisation observed in a sample of 101 countries over the period 1970-2005. Second, the paper tries to shed some light to the much debated issue of whether globalisation affects economic growth and, in so doing, whether convergence in globalisation brings about convergence in per capita income. The results obtained are both encouraging: on the one side, as it is shown that there has been a clear process of globalisation convergence; on the other, the paper concludes that globalisation has been one of the main drivers of economic growth, thus fostering convergence in per capita income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the facilitating role of regional governments and the source of regional competition is the key to demystifying the success of China's fast economic development since the 1990s. This paper, as the product of the lecture the author delivered at The World Economy China Annual Lecture on 3 November 2011 at University of Nottingham, provides a framework that better illustrates the mechanism that motivates China's economic growth over the past 20 years. It shows that the current growth mechanism in China is largely the result of institutional reforms and fiscal recentralisation that occurred in 1994 under the leadership of Premier Zhu Rongji. Being allowed to have their own source of tax revenue under the new fiscal reform, Chinese regional governments are motivated to pursue the goal of economic growth through fast capital formation and industrialisation. The newly designed intergovernmental fiscal relationship, as the most important reform programme in China, has also helped create a growth incentive that is compatible between central and local governments, and resulted in a Tibout-type regional competition in the sense that inefficient use of resources, including public land, would be substantially eliminated by the strategic behaviour of regional governments being more attractive to external direct investment. Such regional competition makes the regional governments preserve and use the markets rather than replace them, and has generated consistent and powerful development momentum for the post-1994 economy of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entrepreneurs are not the only ones to salivate at the call of emerging markets. Major nonprofit organizations that raise money in high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries for redistribution in developing countries are also looking for new sources of funds. Some of the countries that benefited from private philanthropy not too long ago are now in a position to help. The contribution of this paper is two-prong. First, it introduces a robust market screening methodology to determine countries' capacities to give on the basis of macroeconomic and infrastructure indicators. Second, it identifies cross-cultural predictors for charitable donations taken from the World Value Survey. A logistic regression calibrated on already successful fundraising operation scores countries on their propensity for private philanthropy. Research findings receive theoretical support from Max Weber's Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. Top countries for private philanthropy are of Protestant tradition and are at the origin of capitalism, as we know it today. Confucian countries that share a similar ethic and have opted for capitalist economies are first class candidates for private philanthropy., Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies indicate that the effect of migrants' remittances on the economic growth of receiving countries depends negatively on the level of development of the domestic financial sector. In this paper, we introduce a new indicator of financial development to measure the efficiency of the domestic banking system, and find the existence of complementarity between remittances and bank efficiency in economic growth, such that remittances promote growth only in countries whose banks function well. This result is robust to controls for other traditional measures of financial depth and institutional quality indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for a small city to examine how expansions in export and local sectors, changes in total factor productivity (TFP), and growth in population impact an economy. We examine the effects of each source of growth and find that the level and distribution of economic activity vary considerably. We also evaluate each source of growth in the context of a variety of policy metrics, which provide guidelines to policy makers, including the types of firms to be recruited in specific regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1433) Audrone Jakaitiene and Stephane Dees Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods forecasting directly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based on the aggregation of country-specific forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to 3 months ahead). Among the forecasting approaches used, factor models appear to perform the best. Moreover, direct approaches outperform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i.e. top-down and bottom-up approaches are broadly equivalent in terms of country-specific forecast accuracy). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses how the spillover benefits of a locally provided public good affect the equilibrium properties in a multiple regions, overlapping generations model (OLG) model. Two systems of public good provision are compared: a decentralized system and a centralized one. The paper's two main findings are: in the decentralized system, the stronger the spillover, the more likely it is that the economy will be trapped in a no-development equilibrium; fiscal decentralization may lead to higher steady-state per capita income than fiscal centralization. Resumen. Este artículo analiza el modo en que los beneficios de los spillovers de un bien público ofrecido localmente afectan a las propiedades de equilibrio de un modelo de un modelo de generaciones solapadas para regiones múltiples. Se comparan dos sistemas de provisión de bienes públicos: un sistema descentralizado y uno centralizado. Los dos resultados principales del artículo son: en el sistema descentralizado, cuanto más fuerte el spillover, mayor la probabilidad de que la economía quede atrapada en un equilibrio de no-desarrollo, y que la descentralización fiscal podría llevar a mayores ingresos per cápita de estado estacionario que la centralización fiscal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has lifted a record number of people out of poverty, has had sustained levels of economic growth-at environmental and social costs-started a global economic and political rise and is developing effective responses to the global financial crisis. It is making these transformations with institutions that continue to surprise international observers. An increasing number of studies have started to articulate the lessons from China's development. This paper reviews the different interpretations of these lessons, and the process of lesson learning, and the question what China's dramatic transformations over the last 30 years imply for development studies and practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the change in individual earnings has occurred at the top. This paper provides new evidence about the earnings distribution in the UK. The evidence is new in that it provides detail about what has happened within the top 10%, covering groups such as the top 1% and the top 0.5%. The aim is to set the recent rise in top earnings in historical perspective, and to make international comparisons. The evidence is new in that it covers the whole of the postwar period, allowing a contrast to be drawn with the 'golden age' of the 1950s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Global Financial Crisis reduced economic growth, impacted equity and credit markets, and increased business risk. To the extent that this increased risk translates into greater uncertainty of companies' ability to continue as going concerns, this should be reflected in audit reports. This paper investigates how the crisis impacted auditor reporting in Australia by examining the period 2005-2009. It finds that the main reason for audit report modification is going concern and that modification rates increased from 12% in 2005-2007 to 18% in 2008 and 22% in 2009. Serious audit report qualification rates remain around 3%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to quantify the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on social capital with cross-country data. Using data from the World Values Survey (WVS), the authors estimate reduced-form regressions of the main determinants of social capital controlling for HIV prevalence, institutional quality, social distance, and economic indicators. The results obtained indicate that HIV prevalence affects social capital negatively. The empirical estimates suggest that a one standard deviation increase in HIV prevalence will lead to a decline of at least 1 per cent in trust, controlling for other determinants of social capital. Moving from a country with a relatively low level of HIV prevalence, such as Estonia, to a country with a relatively high level, such as Uganda, there is a more than 11 per cent point decline in social capital. These results are robust in a number of dimensions and highlight the empirical importance of an additional mechanism through which HIV/AIDS hinders the development process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Tunisian economic growth. We used a trivariate model of real gross domestic product (GDP), real international tourism receipts and real effective exchange rate to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth. By using annual data for Tunisia for the period of 1970–2007, our results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth. In addition, our results for the Granger causality test indicate that tourism has a positive impact on GDP growth unidirectionally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sharp exchange rate depreciations, or currency crashes, are associated with poor economic outcomes in industrial countries only when they are caused by inflationary macroeconomic policies. Moreover, the poor outcomes are attributable to inflationary policies in general and not the currency crashes in particular. On the other hand, crashes caused by rising unemployment or external deficits have always been followed by solid economic growth, rising asset prices and stable or falling inflation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the relationship between trade and economic growth? Does trade positively affect economic growth? Owing to the ambiguity of this relationship, the empirical relationship has remained open ( Rodriguez and Rodrik, 2001 ; Baldwin, 2003 ). This paper introduces “trade structure” variables, borrowed from the paper of Lederman and Maloney (2003 ), and applies them to the relationship. A dynamic panel estimation for the data of 66 countries during 1991–2004 is used to verify the validity and robustness of the relationship. Trade structure variables show strong evidence of positive effects on growth. Free-trade agreements/areas (FTAs) also enhance economic growth. East Asia shows a different relationship between trade and growth than the world and reflects a weaker role of FTAs in its growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When viewed in the context of children’s physical, social, and economic ecologies, children’s work has both contextually specific benefits and consequences. This paper examines children’s experiences of their economic activity using a theory of resilience as a contextually and culturally embedded phenomenon [British Journal of Social Work, 38 (2008) 218]. Though there is evidence that child labour is a potential threat to children’s well-being, some forms of children’s work may function as potential sources of health-enhancing resources associated with resilience, resulting in positive psychosocial development. Working children can find through their working experiences positive sources of efficacy and cohesion, strong identity, feelings of well-being, positive relationships, and access to material and social capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic sentiment surveys are carried out by all European Union member states and are often seen as early indicators for future economic developments. Based on these surveys, the European Commission constructs an aggregate European Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). This paper compares the ESI with more sophisticated aggregation schemes based on statistical methods: dynamic factor analysis and partial least squares. The indicator based on partial least squares clearly outperforms the other two indicators in terms of comovement with economic activity. In terms of forecast ability, the ESI, constructed in a rather ad hoc way, can compete with the other indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper continues the study of optimal fiscal policy in a growing economy by exploring a case in which the government simultaneously provides three main categories of expenditures with distortionary tax finance: public production services, public consumption services, and state-contingent redistributive transfers. The paper shows that in a general-equilibrium model with given exogenous fiscal policy, a nonmonotonic relation exists between the suboptimal long-run growth rate in a competitive economy and distortionary tax rates. When fiscal policy is endogenously chosen at a social optimum, the relation between the rate of growth and tax rates is always negative. These two properties suggest that an alternative set of government policy instruments affects the response of private sector investment to fiscal policy. Moreover, the different properties of exogenous and endogenous fiscal policy theoretically account for the difference in the relation between economic growth and fiscal policy in empirical studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does the institutional environment affect the causal relationship between banking development and economic growth? In the theoretical section of this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model where the institutional environment is captured through two indicators: judicial system efficiency and easiness of informal trade. We show that an improvement in the institutional environment has two effects. First, it intensifies the causality direction from banking to economic growth through a reduction in defaulting loans. Second, it reduces the interest rate spread. In the empirical section of the paper, we find bidirectional causality when analyzing 22 Middle Eastern and North African countries over the period 1984–2004. The first causality, which runs from banking development to economic growth, is more intense in countries with more developed institutional environment. The second causality runs from economic growth to banking and indicates that a more developed economy has a more developed banking system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China's economy to the global financial tsunami. China's economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China's economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China's economy. We forecast a sustained economic recovery in China in 2009–2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is blamed for being one of the main factors widening regional inequality in Chinese regions since it is highly unevenly distributed spatially. If this logic were true, then controlling the scale of FDI could be a solution to reduce regional inequality. However, it is difficult to reconcile the positive effect of FDI on economic growth with its potential “negative” effect on regional inequality. Using the largest panel dataset covering all the Chinese regions over the entire period 1979–2003 and employing an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function, this paper proves that FDI has been an important factor responsible for regional growth differences in China. However, it suggests that FDI cannot be blamed for rising regional inequality. It is the uneven distribution of FDI instead of FDI itself that has caused regional growth differences. The research results have important policy implications on regional development in China relating to FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of the literature on fiscal decentralization has tended to stress that the greater capacity of decentralized governments to tailor policies to local preferences and to be innovative in the provision of policies and public services, the greater the potential for economic efficiency and growth. There is, however, little empirical evidence to substantiate this claim. In this paper we examine, using a panel data approach with dynamic effects, the relationship between the level of fiscal decentralization and economic growth rates across 16 Central and Eastern European countries over the 1990–2004 period. Our findings suggest that, contrary to the majority view, there is a significant negative relationship between two out of three fiscal decentralization indicators included in the analysis and economic growth. However, the use of different time lags allows us to nuance this negative view and show that long-term effects vary depending on the type of decentralization undertaken in each of the countries considered. While expenditure at and transfers to sub-national tiers of government are negatively correlated with economic growth, taxes assigned at the sub-national level evolve from having a significantly negative to a significantly positive correlation with the national growth rate. This supports the view that sub-national governments with their own revenue source respond better to local demands and promote greater economic efficiency [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Latin America with a Granger causality test and impulse response functions in a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model. With annual observations from a sample of 18 countries from 1962 to 2005, it is shown that while economic growth causes financial development, financial development does not cause economic growth. This finding is robust to different model specifications and different financial indicators. Interestingly, when the sample is divided according to different income levels and institutional quality, there is two-way causality between financial development and economic growth only for the middle income group and for countries with stronger rule of law and creditor rights. The impulse response functions show that a shock to financial development has a positive impact on economic growth only for these subsamples, but the net effect of financial development on growth is relatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the published literature, the differences in environmental performance across countries are typically explained using the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Environmental Kuznets Curve states that pollution initially increases with economic growth. Once GDP per capita reaches a certain level, the relationship reverses. In the present paper, we provide an alternative hypothesis, where budget structure plays an important role in explaining the variations in pollution across the world: the lower the business-related taxes as a share of total tax revenue, the higher the property tax in total tax revenue and the higher the ratio of public health expenditure in total expenditure, then the stronger the incentive of pollution control and the lower the pollution level. Our empirical findings reveal that the budget structure does have an important impact on pollution control. The policy implication of this research is that effective control of environmental pollution requires changes in tax structure and expenditure assignment. This research has important policy implications for China's tax system reform and pollution control efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the past two decades, the fast-developing Asia has emerged as one of the most important economic regions. However, its economic growth is accompanied with severe software piracy. This paper analyzes productivity changes of 11 Asian economies and 4 non-Asian industrialized economies by taking into account software piracy using the Malmquist productivity index and its two components, efficiency change and technical change over the period 1994–2002. The results indicate that when software piracy is included, productivity growth in Asian developing economies regresses, while productivity growth in the four non-Asian industrialized economies improves. Interpretation and implications are provided. ( JEL L86, O34) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable attention has been paid to the determinants of export performance. However, despite this research effort in identifying and examining the influence of such determinants, the literature is characterized by fragmentation and diversity, hindering theory development and practical advancement in the field. This paper attempts to review and synthesize the knowledge on the subject. As a result, this study reviews and evaluates 52 articles published between 1998 and 2005 to assess the determinants of export performance. The assessment reveals that: (a) more studies have been conducted outside the USA; (b) the majority of the studies focus on manufacturing firms, with relatively few studies examining the service sector; (c) the majority of the export studies continue to focus on small to medium-sized firms; (d) there is a continuous increase in the sample size; (e) despite the problems that may arise from the use of single informants, it seems that none of the studies reviewed here collected data from more than one informant in the firm; (f) an increasing number of studies have been using the export venture as the unit of analysis; (g) the level of statistical sophistication has improved; (h) the use of control and moderating variables in export performance studies has increased; (i) more studies have started to include the external environment in their models, including domestic market characteristics; and (j) market orientation as a key determinant of export performance emerges in this review. Finally, conclusions are drawn, along with some suggestions for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for six Middle Eastern and North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia), within a quadvariate vector autoregressive framework. We employ four different measures of financial development and apply the augmented vector autoregression vector (VAR) methodology of Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger causality. Our empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that finance leads to growth in five out of the six countries. Only in Israel could weak support be found for causality running from economic growth to financial development but no causality in the other direction. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that have been launched since the mid 1980s and to improve the efficiency of these countries’ financial systems to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long-term economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The appropriate role of foreign aid in promoting economic development has long been debated. With the recent change of focus from economic to human development, it is timely to investigate the effectiveness of aid in promoting human development. This paper is the first to empirically test the hypothesis that increases in human welfare can be achieved through health sector specific foreign aid. My results indicate that foreign aid is ineffective at increasing overall health and is an unsuccessful human development tool. These results hold after controlling for reverse causality and are robust to different model specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to provide further insights into the linkages between stock market development and economic growth. Under information asymmetries, higher return projects tend to be penalized since these projects are valued at the average, and lower than fair, price. This informational cost, or dilution cost, depends on the degree of informational asymmetry in the market, as well as on the type of financial contract issued by the firms—typically, equity or debt. Growth occurring, informational costs decrease and so does the cost of equity relative to debt financing which spurs the development of stock markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test regional convergence and to investigate interregional disparities in terms of per capita income in Greece. The novelty of our study lies in the use of a disaggregated dataset for an extended time period (1971–2003) at two regional levels (NUTS II & NUTS III). Our results indicate that there is β convergence between prefectures but not among regions, while no evidence of σ convergence is found at both regional levels. Also, the GDP geographic concentration and population density have a negative impact on growth, which outweighs the positive growth effect of population geographic concentration and GDP spatial inequality. Thus, policies aiming at the decentralization of economic activity in Greece might enhance growth and regional equality simultaneously. Finally, we do not find economic dualism across geographic areas; however, rich prefectures seem to converge faster than poor ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ‘theory of law and finance’ argues that the common law system provides a better framework for financial development and economic growth than the civil law tradition. This paper identifies a number of problems that cast doubt on the soundness of the empirical basis of this literature. However, this analysis supports the idea that the legal tradition is a major factor in shaping corporate law. In particular, while there is not much evidence that common law countries protect financial investors better than civil law countries I find support for the assumption that financial investors are treated differently across legal families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Philippine economy since the 1980s has undergone shifts of production, employment, and consumption in the direction of the greater share of nontradable sectors, despite relatively stagnant economic growth. This paper examines sources of the sectoral shifts theoretically and quantitatively based on a dynamic model of a small open economy. The theoretical analysis identifies possible factors affecting the evolution of the sectoral composition: changes in sectoral total factor productivity (TFP), the tariff rate, and the terms of trade. Then, the relative importance of these factors is examined quantitatively by conducting simulations of the model calibrated to the Philippine economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article talks about the regional business climate in the Netherlands. It states in their assessment of the national business climate of the country, Statistics Netherlands used a total of 70 indicators for the regional business climate, which are grouped into two broad categories and eight subcategories, such as stimulants for economic growth and conditions for economic growth. It is inferred that the Netherlands as a country is just too small to relate business climate and economic growth on the subnational level. According to the authors, regional differences in factor conditions on the spatial scale of the country are just too small to influence economic growth to a really significant degree.

Using the interregional input–output model, the present paper analyzes the impact of Olympic-related investments on the economic development of Beijing and its surrounding areas, as well as the rest of China. The interregional input–output model provides a satisfactory simulation and analysis of Olympic-related investments that are implemented in Beijing and other areas and their spillover effects on other regions. We estimate that from 2002 to 2007, Olympic-related investments will add 2.02, 0.23 and 0.09 percent annually to gross regional products of Beijing, its surrounding areas and the rest of China, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Any rule-based system has to include a mechanism for the enforcement of its rules and a means for settlement of disputes about alleged violation of rules. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), concluded in 1947, and its successor the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that subsumed it in 1995, embody rules governing the global trading system as specified in various agreements that their members have entered into over time. Naturally, both had a dispute settlement mechanism (DSM). It was a primarily political one in the GATT and was transformed into a largely legalistic one in the multilateral agreement that established the WTO. This paper reviews the history and evaluation of the two DSMs and examines their efficiency based on appropriate criteria. It views them from three alternative and overlapping perspectives: political-diplomatic, legal-economic and social. It concludes with a discussion of the unresolved problems in the operation of the WTO's DSM and the prospects of resolving them in the ongoing Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the highly debated export-led growth hypothesis in a number of different ways using Malaysia as a case study. First, the hypothesis is tested in terms of labour and total factor productivity growth as a potential channel via which exports can affect or be affected by GDP growth. Considering the impact of imports on GDP and productivity growth serves a similar purpose. In addition, GDP is trade-adjusted to avoid the double-counting problem arising from the national income identity. Second, the relationships are examined using the relatively recent Toda and Yamamoto (1995 ) causality tests. These results have major implications and are necessary to reassess the effectiveness of trade policy as a strategy for economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2007 a free trade area (BFTA) will be created in the Balkans. In this paper we study BFTA-induced trade growth in the SEE. Given that welfare impacts associated with trade growth depend on the growth channels, more goods and varieties exported or at higher price or more volume of exported goods and varieties, we study the structure of integration-induced export growth in the Balkans. Given that no firm-level trade data is available for the Balkans, we adopt the heterogeneous firm framework, which allows to decompose aggregate trade growth into intensive margin of trade and extensive margin of trade using only aggregate trade data. Our empirical findings predict that the BFTA would primarily increase the export volume through a growing number of shipments (the extensive margin of trade) suggesting that the actual welfare gains from the trade growth in the Balkans might in fact be larger than predicted in previous trade studies. We also found that reducing variable trade costs leads to higher export growth rates compared to reducing fixed trade costs by the same percentage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores whether the probability of being punished after losing power leads dictators to restrain their level of predation and, thus, increase economic growth. To do so, a simple model of predatory rule is developed, and the consequences of an increasing probability of punishment after loosing power explored. New data on dictators' post-exit fate have permitted to estimate the predicted probability of punishment taking place by using multinomial logit. Outgoing dictators' strength and the international context are shown to be the main determinants of post-exit scenarios. The probability of punishment is proven to have a positive and significant effect on the rate of growth of GDP under alternative specifications of growth regressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using Bayesian Model Averaging, we examine whether inflation's effects on economic growth are robust to model uncertainty across numerous specifications. Cross-sectional data provide little evidence of a robust inflation-growth relationship, even after allowing for non-linear effects. Panel data with fixed effects suggest inflation is one of the more robust variables affecting growth, and non-linear results suggest that high inflation observations drive the results. However, this robustness is lost when estimation is carried out with instrumental variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the question of whether or not a theory of total factor productivity (TFP) is needed in order to explain the observed large per capita income differences across countries. As the argument that it is needed has been reached by calculating TFP empirically, we show that the way the estimates of TFP have been computed is not an innocuous issue. To illustrate our point, we discuss how two well-known textbooks on growth theory present the arguments and the problems associated with these expositions. We conclude that the tautological nature of the estimates of TFP lies at the heart of an important question that the empirical literature on economic growth has been dealing with during recent years. Hence, our arguments cast doubt on the need for a theory of TFP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G-7 countries. Our models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP. We examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data, and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to better predictions of the probability of recession. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the developing world education is seen as a means of raising levels of everyday wellbeing and is being linked to improved measures of productivity and economic growth. This paper employs a household production function framework to examine the determinants of school attendance among migrant children using a unique dataset collected in China's Jiangsu province. The study finds that the main predictors of school attendance among migrant children in the sample were household income, mother's education, the length of residence of the child's mother in the city and whether both parents were working in the same city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the period of 1990s alone, four waves of financial crises occurred around the world. The repeated occurrence of financial crises stimulated a large number of theoretical and empirical studies on the phenomena, in particular studies on the determinants of or early warning signals of financial crises. Nonetheless, the different studies of early warning systems have achieved mixed results and there remains much room for further investigation. Since, so far, the empirical studies have focused on conventional economic modelling methods such as simplified probabilistic models and regression models, in this study we examine whether new insights can be gained from the application of the fuzzy clustering method. The theories of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic offer us the means to deal with uncertainties inherent in a wide variety of tasks, especially when the uncertainty is not the result of randomness but the result of unknown factors and relationships that are difficult to explain. They also provide us with the instruments to treat vague and imprecise linguistic values and to model nonlinear relationships. This paper presents empirical results from analysing the Finnish currency crisis in 1992 using the fuzzy C-means clustering method. We first provide the relevant background knowledge and introduce the fuzzy clustering method. We then show how the use of fuzzy C-means method can help us to identify the critical levels of important economic indicators for predicting of financial crises. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]