Search

Summary: This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of 10 series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current‐quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020, with weaker performance in the second half. We document how the WEI responded to key events and data releases during the first 10 months of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore how satellite images of global night lights from year 1992 to 2003 can be used to estimate economic activity at the sub-regional level in the US and China. The night lights based estimates of economic activity are then spatially analysed and compared with subregional economic indicators where available for selected years. We also briefly discuss two theoretical models that shed light on the geospatial patterns reflected by the night light data. The results are presented with a series of maps, charts and tables. Resumen. En este artículo exploramos el uso potencial de imágenes de satélite de la iluminación nocturna global desde 1992 a 2003 para estimar la actividad económica a escala subregional en los EE.UU. y en China. A continuación se analizan espacialmente las estimaciones de la actividad económica basadas en la iluminación nocturna y se comparan con los indicadores económicos subregionales disponibles para los años del estudio. Discutimos también brevemente dos modelos teoréticos que podrían ilustrar los patrones geoespaciales que reflejan los datos de iluminación nocturna. Los resultados se presentan junto con una serie de mapas, gráficos y cuadros. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes a novel dynamic propensity score matching approach for multiple cohorts of U.S. counties between 1989 and 1999 to examine local economy resilience to rare natural disasters. Affected counties are sorted based on disaster intensity and are carefully matched to similar counties that did not experience a disaster. A difference-in-difference estimator compares trends of affected counties' postdisaster business establishments, employment, and payroll to counterfactual trends in the matched counties. All affected counties experienced short-run drops in economic activity that was particularly noticeable in higher-intensity disasters. In the longer run, less distressed counties returned to their estimated counterfactual trends, but countieswith lower predisaster socioeconomic conditions still lagged in growth, particularly in cases of lowerintensity disasters. Policymakers can use this information to better prepare responses to future disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper examines the continued strong population growth in U.S. nonmetropolitan areas possessing high levels of natural amenities during the 1990s and the reasons for near convergence of growth across the top tiers of the amenity hierarchy. Based on estimated parsimonious spatial hedonic growth regressions, strong demand for high-amenity areas continued in the 1990s, but the converging of population growth across the top tiers appeared related to capitalization of amenity differences among the tiers into factor prices. Yet, evidence obtained from controlling for spatial effects suggests that the relative quality of life in the top two tiers had deteriorated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy and its volatility affect real economic activity through their effect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy (the classical dichotomy) or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand (new Keynesian or new classical theories). Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy and its volatility affect the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through their effect on total factor productivity and its volatility. Total factor productivity provides an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy and its volatility exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of reducing short-run swings in monetary policy variables as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy during the so-called ‘Great Moderation’ in US gross domestic product volatility beginning in the early 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the adequacy of the growth record of the American economy in recent years. Within the past several years the question of whether or not the economy is advancing at a rapid enough pace has become a matter of serious interest to the general public as well as the economic specialist. This is true to such an extent that the economy's allegedly inadequate growth rate became one of the major issues in the 1960 presidential election campaign. The question of the adequacy of the growth performance of the American economy has been brought forcefully to public attention from a number of responsible and professionally competent sources. The central question in any discussion of the adequacy of the growth record of the economy is that of criteria. Evidence based upon per capita data rather than growth rates suggests that the economy's performance from 1944 through 1960 was relatively unsatisfactory. Real gains of sizable proportions were recorded in living standards as reflected in per capita consumption outlays, but the primary source of such gains was not the sustained growth iii the economy as a whole, but a large-scale shift in the end-use of the nation's total output. As the 1950's drew to a close, however, the possibilities of further progress in living standards from this particular source were becoming exhausted. The same holds for any future increases in the other major components of the output total, particularly investment outlays. In retrospect, therefore, the era 1945-1960 was primarily one in which the fruits of the economy's massive ware tune surge of growth were adapted to peacetime uses. It was not, an era of satisfactory growth.

Standard theoretical models predict that higher inflation expectations generate greater current consumer spending at the zero lower bound of interest rates. However, recent empirical studies using U.S. micro data find negative results for this relationship. We use micro data for Japan, which has experienced low interest rates for a prolonged period, to estimate ordered probit models with a variety of controls. We find robust evidence supporting the prediction of standard models: survey respondents with higher expected inflation tend to indicate that their household has increased real spending compared with 1 year ago but will decrease it in the future. This relationship appears to be stronger for asset holders and older people. ( JEL E20, E21, E30, E31, E50, E52) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of state-level tax and expenditure limitations on economic performance within the framework of the state's business climate is examined using a family of parametric and nonparametric tests of subsample equivalency. An index of tax and expenditure limitation strength or restrictiveness developed by Poulson is used to test for patterns in 84 separate measures of economic performance, business vitality, and development capacity. In general, we find no evidence that tax and expenditure limitations are associated with higher levels of economic performance or business climate. There is limited evidence that tax and expenditure limitations are associated with a poorer business climate and lower economic performance in some cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide new evidence on patterns of structural change in advanced economies, reconsidering the stylised facts put forward by , , and . Since 1980, the services sector has overwhelmingly predominated in the economic activity of the European Union, Japan, and the US, but there is substantial heterogeneity among services. Personal, finance, and business services have low productivity growth and increasing shares in employment and GDP. By contrast, shares of distribution services are constant, and productivity growth is rapid. We find that the labour share in value-added is declining, while the use of ICT capital and skilled labour is increasing in all sectors and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP-filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Emory-Obed Watershed in Tennessee, like many other rural areas throughout the United States, is experiencing changes in economic activities and social values associated with natural resources. Informed by the interactional approach to community development, this effort strove to build community capacity so community members could more fully govern their life according to their values and interests. We utilized key informant and focus group interviews to gain information about the watershed and to obtain different perspectives on resource-related issues. Data from key informant interviews led to the selection of a geographic community in which a community of interest was nurtured throughout a year involving monthly meetings, a community assessment and submission of a development grant application. It was found that gaining entry into the community and building trust among participants, and between participants and researchers, were critical in this in-place participatory community research. Lessons drawn from this experience applicable to similar efforts are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The industrialization of shoemaking occurred in small towns in antebellum New England in which capital formation was severely hampered by currency and credit problems prior to the Legal Tender Act of 1862. In a comparison of two communities, it was discovered that the construction of a railroad had different results depending on the structural ties between the community and the railroad. In one community, the railroad drew external capital to the community that provided the basis for a crucial expansion of scale of shoe production prior to the rise of the factory system. In the other, it depleted local capital, ending the shoe industry and damaging most other local economic activities as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the need for constructive analysis, planning, and policy to promote regional economic growth in the southern states of the U.S. The prospects and possibilities for the South's economic development are, of course, closely linked with growth of and changes in the national economy. During the past two decades, the South has shared increasingly well in national economic growth, and similar promise holds for the future. Although there are thus grounds for optimism, the expected improvement could presumably be made greater and more certain. The present momentum of Southern economic development provides a strong driving force which may be harnessed by special and concerted efforts to secure continued advance. Too much emphasis can hardly be placed on the productivity of the South's labor force in terms of its aptitudes, mobility, and employability. For several decades, the South has had somewhat more than its share of low productivity industry. Low-productivity areas are necessarily low-wage, low-income areas as well. A revealing example is the cotton-growing region of the South in which farms are typically too small, under-equipped, and poorly managed to be profitable. Such factors as the one-crop system, sharecropping, race, and an inadequate system of rural credit work in combination to reduce the productivity and cash incomes of these far too numerous farmers.

This article examines the effect of peddling upon industrialization and economic development and the evolution of institutional arrangements in marketing in the Antebellum period. After 1840 peddling in America was undertaken, to an increasing extent, by newly arrived immigrants from Germany who displaced the traditional "Yankees" from the trade. The relationship between peddling and the development of entrepreneurship is explored, along with the special opportunities that peddling provided for economic and occupational mobility in the American milieu. The frequency with which individuals who started careers as peddlers rose to prominence in the fields of merchandising and finance points to the importance of the "schooling" function of this institution for newly arrived immigrants in American folkways, business practices, and commercial possibilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]