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The Arctic is impacted by some of the fastest temperature changes observed on Earth, but the impact on the terrestrial arthropod fauna is unclear. Acute physiological thermal limits of terrestrial ectotherms from high latitudes often exceed the local air temperatures, suggesting that they may be able to cope with increasing temperatures. However, knowledge on how Arctic terrestrial arthropods cope with elevated temperatures for longer periods is lacking.Here we investigate how acclimation temperature and exposure time affect the acute physiological heat tolerance of five terrestrial arthropod species (Neomolgus littoralis, Megaphorura arctica, Nysius groenlandicus, Psammotettix lividellus and Nabis flavomarginatus) immediately after collection in Arctic and sub‐Arctic habitats.We show that although acute heat tolerances are relatively high, even exposure to moderate (temperature span assessed ca. 3–29°C) acclimation temperatures for a 24 h period have strong negative effects on heat tolerance for four of the five species. Similarly, exposure time negatively affected heat tolerance, but depending on species and temperature.Together our results suggest that exposure to even moderately elevated temperatures for periods of 24 h or even shorter can lead to lower acute heat tolerance for cold adapted terrestrial arthropod species from sub‐Arctic and Arctic regions. Consequently, climate change leading to extended periods of mildly elevated temperatures may have strong negative effects on these species. We argue that this aspect is currently overlooked when assessing the ability of arthropods from Arctic and sub‐Artic regions to cope with climate changes as such predictions are typically based on acute heat tolerance estimates and with the assumption of beneficial acclimation responses. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is destabilizing the cryosphere, with consequences for glaciers, permafrost, sea ice and lake ice. Polar lakes have short ice‐free seasons, and small changes in ice cover duration have the potential to provoke alterations to ecosystem structure. However, these lakes are understudied, and the consequences for mixing regimes, thermal structures and biogeochemical processes remain unclear. We measured three annual cycles of dissolved oxygen, temperature and specific conductivity in a lake at ∼83°N to investigate limnological processes and their interannual variability. There were sharp interannual contrasts in lake dynamics, with state shifts in mixing, stratification and oxygen regimes due to air temperature variability and meteorological events. We also observed unusual thermal profiles that were associated with solute gradients. These striking differences underscore the sensitivity of high Arctic lakes to interannual variations in meteorological forcing, and their susceptibility to regime shifts in response to ongoing global change. Plain Language Summary: Lakes are biodiversity refuges, climate regulators and providers of ecosystem services. High Arctic lakes experience brief summer ice‐free periods and their annual dynamics remain largely unexplored despite their location in one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. In particular, patterns of thermal structure and oxygen dynamics have rarely been measured. We studied three complete annual cycles in a coastal lake less than 100 km south of the northernmost land on Earth. The observed limnological dynamics highlight the potential for rapid regime shifts in polar lakes and underline their sensitivity to interannual differences in environmental conditions. Key Points: Pronounced shifts in lake oxygen and temperature dynamics occur due to interannual air temperature variation and meteorological episodesDivergent annual trajectories in lake structure and functioning highlight the vulnerability of high Arctic lakes to climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air‐sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications. Plain Language Summary: Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the future based on the latest climate models. However, there is a large discrepancy between these climate models. We find that simulated Arctic climate change tends to be much larger in models using the community ocean model "NEMO" as their ocean component. Future Arctic climate change in winter strongly depends on the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in the NEMO‐family climate models. There are some indications that this group of models can better reproduce the observed winter sea ice decline and mixed layer depth in the Barents Sea in their historical simulations. We suggest that investigating the model physics in the NEMO‐family climate models in comparison with other models may ultimately help to reduce the overall uncertainty in climate change projections. Key Points: Future Arctic climate change in winter strongly depends on the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT)Arctic climate change in the NEMO‐family climate models is much more pronouncedNEMO‐family climate models have larger increases in poleward OHT [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the "best" CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step‐like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time. Plain Language Summary: The rate of Arctic warming varied in time, while the rate of global warming was nearly constant over the period 1960–2020. This led to a variable Arctic Amplification (AA) defined as a ratio of the Arctic warming trend to mean global warming trend. In addition, the Arctic experienced sudden changes in the rate of warming with step‐like changes in annual mean Arctic Amplification around the years 1986 and 1999. Climate models do not capture the second observed sharp increase of the AA. We suggest that the first AA increase around 1986 is primarily due to external forcing (increasing concentration of carbon dioxide) while the second sharp increase around 1999 is dominated by internal climate variability which current models cannot capture accurately within the time scale of the physical phenomena. Key Points: Annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) within the period 1970–2020 changed in steep steps around 1986 and 1999. It reached values over 4.0Even those CMIP6 models best at reproducing the AA did not reproduce the second sudden increase near 1999We conjecture that the first AA sharp increase is due to external forcing, while the second is due to internal climate variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea‐ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble. This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the EC‐Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970‐2100. We apply for the first time the Liang‐Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause‐effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea‐surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence of sea‐ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport through the twenty‐first century. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic has been warming at a larger rate than the rest of the world, resulting in a substantial loss of sea ice since the late 1970s. This has had and will continue to have an impact on our climate and societies. The exact causes of the ongoing sea‐ice loss are not entirely known, and understanding them is important in order to better prepare our societies for future climate changes. In our study, we apply a relatively novel approach that quantifies the cause‐effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We make use of a large range of model simulations performed with the EC‐Earth3 global climate model covering the period 1970‐2100. We find that air temperature, sea‐surface temperature, and the transport of heat by the ocean are important drivers of the ongoing and future retreat of Arctic sea ice. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also affect the three former quantities. Our study demonstrates the performance of causal inference methods in the quest for a better understanding of relationships between climate variables. The geophysical and climate communities could greatly benefit from using these methods more intensively. Key Points: The Liang‐Kleeman rate of information transfer allows quantification of the directional dependence between Arctic sea ice and its driversRecent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea‐surface temperatures and ocean heat transportThe influence of Arctic sea ice on air temperature and ocean heat transport progressively decreases through the twenty‐first century [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radiation changes at the Earth's surface alter climate, however, the causes of observed surface radiation changes are not precisely quantified globally. With complete global coverage by ERA‐Interim, the drivers of the clear sky surface downwelling longwave irradiance (SDLI) trends from 1984 to 2017 are quantifiable everywhere. Trends in atmospheric temperature and water vapor contributed significantly (∼90%) to clear sky SDLI trends, including trends consistent with Arctic warming and Southern Ocean cooling. CO2 contributed ∼10% and other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, CFC‐11, and CFC‐12) ∼1% to the SDLI trends. These observation‐based results are consistent with early CO2‐doubling climate model calculations wherein temperature and water vapor changes drove ∼90% of the SDLI change. The well‐mixed greenhouse gases drive location‐dependent SDLI trends that are strongest over regions with climatologically high temperatures and low water vapor amounts. Plain Language Summary: Using ERA‐Interim analyzed fields, we show how downward longwave radiation has changed at the Earth's surface from 1984 to 2017. The longwave radiation changes primarily occurred as a consequence of air temperature and water vapor changes. Air temperatures and water vapor amounts increased over most locations. The CO2 increase alone contributed to about 10% of the change in downward longwave radiation that occurred over the last 34 years. This ∼10% change in CO2 was associated with rises in water vapor and atmospheric temperatures that in turn dominated the remaining ∼90% of the change in downward longwave radiation at the surface. Compared to CO2, we find that the other greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons) did not contribute significantly to surface warming from 1984 to 2017. Finally, we show that the greenhouse gases contributed to greater amounts of downward longwave radiation over high latitudes due to lower water vapor amounts. Key Points: Surface downwelling longwave irradiance changes contributed to surface warming over the Arctic and surface cooling over the Southern OceanAtmospheric temperature and water vapor trends drove ∼90% of the surface downwelling longwave irradiance trend and CO2 contributed ∼10%Well‐mixed greenhouse gases caused spatially varying irradiance trends due to spatial variations in the water vapor and temperature fields [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has ecosystem‐wide cascading effects. Little is known, however, about the resilience of Arctic marine ecosystems to environmental change. Here we quantify and compare large‐scale patterns in rocky intertidal biomass, coverage and zonation in six regions along a north‐south gradient of temperature and ice conditions in West Greenland (60–72°N). We related the level and variation in assemblage composition, biomass and coverage to latitudinal‐scale environmental drivers. Across all latitudes, the intertidal assemblage was dominated by a core of stress‐tolerant foundation species that constituted > 95% of the biomass. Hence, canopy‐forming macroalgae, represented by Fucus distichus subsp. evanescens and F. vesiculosus and, up to 69°N, also Ascophyllum nodosum, together with Semibalanus balanoides, occupied > 70% of the vertical tidal range in all regions. Thus, a similar functional assemblage composition occurred across regions, and no latitudinal depression was observed. The most conspicuous difference in species composition from south to north was that three common species (the macroalgae Ascophyllum nodosum, the amphipod Gammarus setosus and the gastropod Littorina obtusata) disappeared from the mid‐intertidal, although at different latitudes. There were no significant relationships between assemblage metrics and air temperature or sea ice coverage as obtained from weather stations and satellites, respectively. Although the mean biomass decreased > 50% from south to north, local biomass in excess of 10 000 g ww m−2 was found even at the northernmost site, demonstrating the patchiness of this habitat and the effect of small‐scale variation in environmental characteristics. Hence, using the latitudinal gradient in a space‐for‐time substitution, our results suggest that while climate modification may lead to an overall increase in the intertidal biomass in north Greenland, it is unlikely to drive dramatic functional changes in ecosystem structure in the near future. Our dataset provides an important baseline for future studies to verify these predictions for Greenland's intertidal zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation ( MEL) model to simulate 200-yr post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition, and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in (1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation and (2) higher C : nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C : nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]