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To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01200.x Byline: John Quiggin (1), David Adamson (2), Sarah Chambers (3), Peggy Schrobback (4) Abstract: Climate change is likely to have substantial effects on irrigated agriculture. Extreme climate events, such as droughts, are likely to become more common. These patterns are evident in median projections of climate change for the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Understanding climate change effects on returns from irrigation involves explicit representation of spatial changes in natural stocks (i.e., water supply) and their temporal variability (i.e., frequency of drought states of nature) and the active management responses to capital stocks represented by mitigation and alternative adaptation strategies by state of nature. A change in the frequency of drought will induce a change in the allocation of land and water between productive activities. In this paper, a simulation model of state-contingent production is used to analyze the effects of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In the absence of mitigation, climate change will have severe adverse effects on irrigated agriculture in the Basin. However, a combination of climate mitigation and adaptation through changes in land and water use will allow the maintenance of agricultural water use and environmental flows. Le changement climatique risque d'avoir des repercussions considerables sur l'agriculture irriguee. Les phenomenes climatiques extremes, tels que les secheresses, risquent de devenir plus frequents. Ces phenomenes sont mis en evidence dans les projections medianes du changement climatique etablies pour le bassin de Murray-Darling, en Australie. Pour comprendre les repercussions du changement climatique sur le rendement des cultures irriguees, il faut disposer d'une representation explicite des changements spatiaux qui touchent les stocks naturels (c.-a-d. l'approvisionnement en eau) et de leur variabilite temporelle (c.-a-d. les etats de la nature de la frequence de la secheresse) et assurer une gestion active des stocks de capital grace a des strategies d'attenuation et d'adaptation selon l'etat de la nature. Une variation de la frequence des secheresses entrainera une modification de l'allocation des terres et de l'eau entre les activites de production. Dans le present article, nous avons utilise un modele de simulation etats-contingences pour analyser les repercussions des strategies d'attenuation du changement climatique et d'adaptation a ce changement. En l'absence de strategies d'attenuation, le changement climatique aura des repercussions defavorables sur l'agriculture irriguee dans le Bassin. Toutefois, des strategies d'attenuation combinees a des strategies d'adaptation comprenant des changements dans l'utilisation des terres et de l'eau permettront de maintenir l'utilisation de l'eau a des fins agricoles et les debits environnementaux. Author Affiliation: (1)Risk and Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics and School of Political Science and International Studies, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia (corresponding author: phone: 0061-7-33469646; fax: 0061-7-33657299; e-mail:j.quiggin@uq.edu.au). (2)Risk and Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia (phone: 0061-7-33656782; fax: 0061-7-33657299; e-mail:d.adamson@uq.edu.au). (3)Risk and Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia (phone: 0061-7-336567052; fax: 0061-7-33657299; e-mail:s.chambers1@uq.edu.au). (4)Risk and Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia (phone: 0061-7-33656093; fax: 0061-7-33657299; e-mail:p.schrobback@uq.edu.au).

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01201.x Byline: Mark E. Eiswerth (1), G. Cornelis van Kooten (2) Abstract: The relationship between bio-energy feedstock production and water quality has received little attention from economists. Here, an optimal control model is used to determine the optimal amount of land to convert to the production of energy feedstocks, specifically ethanol corn, taking into account potential impacts on water quality. Based on comparative static analyses of an optimal control model, and a numerical application, we find that the optimal proportion of land to shift into bio-energy production from a baseline use, such as the Conservation Reserve Program, depends on key model parameters, specifically the rate of degradation of the pollutant and the link between the intensity of bio-energy feedstock production and the rate of change in the pollutant stock. Yet, there is a limit to how much land should optimally be converted as society must trade-off its desire to mitigate climate change against its willingness to accept a decline in water quality. Le lien entre la production de matieres premieres bioenergetiques et la qualite de l'eau a attire peu d'attention de la part des economistes. Nous avons utilise un modele de controle optimal pour determiner les superficies optimales a convertir a la production de matieres premieres energetiques, en particulier le mais destinea la production d'ethanol, en tenant compte des repercussions potentielles sur la qualite de l'eau. D'apres une simulation numerique et des analyses de statique comparative obtenues a l'aide d'un modele de controle optimal, nous en sommes venus a la conclusion que les superficies optimales a convertir a la production de matieres premieres bioenergetiques a partir d'un instrument de reference, tel que le Conservation Reserve Program (Programme de reserve des terres sous conservation), depend des parametres cles du modele, particulierement du taux de biodegradation des polluants et du lien entre l'intensite de la production de matieres premieres bioenergetiques et le taux de variation du stock de polluants. Il existe tout de meme une limite quant aux superficies a convertir etant donne que la societe doit faire un choix entre son desir d'attenuer le changement climatique et son acceptation d'une diminution de la qualite de l'eau. Author Affiliation: (1)Department of Economics, University of Northern Colorado, 501 20th Street, Campus Box 101, Greeley, CO 80639 (corresponding author: phone: 970-351-2094; fax: 970-351-4296; e-mail:Mark.Eiswerth@unco.edu). (2)Department of Economics, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700, Stn CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada V8W 2Y2 (phone: 250-721-8539; fax: 250-721-6214; e-mail:kooten@uvic.ca).

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01558.x Byline: EMILY S. MINOR ([double dagger]*), TODD R. LOOKINGBILL ([double dagger][dagger]) Keywords: biodiversity; conservation; dispersal; graph theory; reserve design; umbrella species Abstract: Abstract: Protected areas must be close, or connected, enough to allow for the preservation of large-scale ecological and evolutionary processes, such as gene flow, migration, and range shifts in response to climate change. Nevertheless, it is unknown whether the network of protected areas in the United States is connected in a way that will preserve biodiversity over large temporal and spatial scales. It is also unclear whether protected-area networks that function for larger species will function for smaller species. We assessed the connectivity of protected areas in the three largest biomes in the United States. With methods from graph theory-a branch of mathematics that deals with connectivity and flow-we identified and measured networks of protected areas for three different groups of mammals. We also examined the value of using umbrella species (typically large-bodied, far-ranging mammals) in designing large-scale networks of protected areas. Although the total amount of protected land varied greatly among biomes in the United States, overall connectivity did not. In general, protected-area networks were well connected for large mammals but not for smaller mammals. Additionally, it was not possible to predict connectivity for small mammals on the basis of connectivity for large mammals, which suggests the umbrella species approach may not be an appropriate design strategy for conservation networks intended to protect many species. Our findings indicate different strategies should be used to increase the likelihood of persistence for different groups of species. Strategic linkages of existing lands should be a conservation priority for smaller mammals, whereas conservation of larger mammals would benefit most from the protection of more land. Abstract (Spanish): Un Analisis Multiescala de la Conectividad de Areas Protegidas para Mamiferos en los Estados Unidos Resumen: Las areas protegidas deben estar lo suficientemente cercanas, o conectadas, para permitir la preservacion de procesos ecologicos y evolutivos a gran escala, como el flujo genetico, la migracion y los cambios de distribucion en respuesta al cambio climatico. Sin embargo, se desconoce si la red de areas protegidas en los Estados Unidos esta conectada de manera que preserve la biodiversidad en escalas temporales y espaciales grandes. Tampoco esta claro si las redes de areas protegidas que funcionan para especies mayores funcionaran para especies mas pequenas. Evaluamos la conectividad de las areas protegidas en las tres biomas mas grandes en los Estados Unidos. Con metodos derivados de la teoria de grafos - una rama de las matematicas que trata con la conectividad y el flujo - identificamos y medimos redes de areas protegidas para tres grupos diferentes de mamiferos. Tambien examinamos el valor de la utilizacion de especies paraguas (tipicamente mamiferos de talla grande y amplio rango de distribucion) en el diseno de redes de areas protegidas a gran escala. Aunque la cantidad total de terrenos protegidos vario enormemente entre biomas en los Estados Unidos, no fue asi con la conectividad. En general, las redes de areas protegidas estuvieron bien conectadas para mamiferos mayores pero no para mamiferos mas pequenos. Adicionalmente, no fue posible predecir la conectividad para mamiferos pequenos con base en la conectividad para mamiferos mayores, lo que sugiere que el enfoque de especie paraguas puede ser una estrategia de diseno inapropiada para redes de conservacion que intentan proteger muchas especies. Nuestros hallazgos indican que se deben utilizar diferentes estrategias para incrementar la probabilidad de persistencia de diferentes grupos de especies. La conexion estrategica de terrenos existente debe ser una prioridad para la conservacion de mamiferos pequenos, mientras que la conservacion de mamiferos mayores se beneficiaria mas con la proteccion de mas terrenos. Author Affiliation: ([double dagger])Appalachian Lab, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, 301 Braddock Road, Frostburg, MD 21532, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted June 16, 2009; revised manuscript accepted March 12, 2010. Article note: (*) Current address: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago, M/C 066, 845 W. Taylor Street, SES 3346, Chicago, IL, U.S.A., email eminor@uic.edu ([dagger]) Current address: Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Richmond, 108 Weinstein Hall, Richmond, VA 23173, U.S.A.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01563.x Byline: JOHN GOWDY (*), CHARLES HALL ([double dagger]), KENT KLITGAARD ([dagger]), LISI KRALL (s.) Keywords: behavioral economics; biodiversity; biophysical economics; climate change; economic theory; energy; Walrasian economics Abstract: Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self-referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self-contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self-centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement. Abstract (Spanish): Lo Que Todo Biologo de la Conservacion Debe Saber de Teoria Economica Resumen: El ultimo siglo ha sido la superioridad de un modelo economico central, al que nos referimos como economia Walrasiana. Este modelo esta dirigido por supuestos psicologicos de que los humanos solo actuan de manera auto-referencial y estrechamente racional y que la produccion puede ser descrita como un flujo circular auto-contenido entre empresas y unidades domesticas. Estos supuestos tienen implicaciones criticas para la manera en que se utiliza la economia para informar a la biologia de la conservacion. Sin embargo, el modelo Walrasiano es inconsistente con un extenso cuerpo de evidencia empirica del comportamiento humano actual, y viola un numero de leyes fisicas basicas. La investigacion en ciencias conductuales y neurociencia muestran que los humanos son animales excepcionalmente sociales y seres auto-centrados economicamente racionales. La produccion economica esta sujeta a leyes fisicas incluyendo las leyes de termodinamica y balance de masa. En contraste, parte de la teoria economica contemporanea, estimulada por investigaciones recientes sobre la conducta humana y un cumulo de datos sobre el impacto negativo de la economia humana sobre los sistemas naturales, se esta moviendo hacia una vision global que coloca al consumo y la produccion justo en su contexto conductual y biofisico. Sostenemos que es esencial abandonar la camisa de fuerza de la economia Walrasiana para poder progresar en el entendimiento de las complejas interacciones entre la economia humana y el mundo natural. Hacemos un llamado para un nuevo marco de referencia para que la teoria y politica economica sean consistentes con la conducta humana observada, reconozcan la interaccion compleja y frecuentemente irreversible entre los sistemas humanos y naturales, y que confronten directamente los efectos negativos acumulativos de la economia humana sobre los sistemas de soporte de la vida en la Tierra. La economia biofisica y la economia ecologica son dos marcos economicos emergentes en este movimiento. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180-3590, U.S.A., emailjohngowdy@earthlink.net ([dagger])College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, Syracuse, NY, U.S.A. ([double dagger])Department of Economics, Wells College, Aurora, NY, U.S.A. (s.)Department of Economics, State University of New York at Cortland, Cortland, NY 13045, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted May 27, 2009; revised manuscript accepted April 7, 2010.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01733.x Byline: Matts Lindbladh (1), David R. Foster (2) Keywords: Denmark; extinction debt; forest conservation; forest history; land-use history; oak; paleoecology; pollen analysis; Quercus robur; Sweden Abstract: Summary 1. The long-term history of Quercus in southern Scandinavia has received little attention despite its important role in modern conservation. In this study the 4000-year dynamics of Quercus, its habitat and other important taxa were analysed with pollen data from 25 small hollows and 6 regional sites across southern Scandinavia. The aim was to provide a context for understanding the species' current status and managing its future dynamics. 2. The results indicate that Quercus is much less abundant today than at any time during the previous 4000 years and corroborate the rapid decline reported in 18th- and 19th-century historical records. Modern pollen percentages are 45-60% of 17th-century values and only 20-35% of the maximum values reached in the 3rd century. 3. A strong positive correlation exists between the abundance of Quercus and the abundance of Tilia, Corylus and Alnus, which also experienced a steady decline across the region in the last two millennia. Climate change is the broad-scale driver of the observed dynamics, but human activity introduced considerable variation in the regional and temporal details of these changes. In the hemiboreal northern part of the study area the decline of Quercus appears to be controlled largely by competition with other tree species (especially Pinus and Picea), mediated by harvesting. In the temperate south part Quercus forests decreased through deforestation for agriculture. 4. Multivariate analyses indicate that although substantial phytogeographical variation has existed through past millennia the regional vegetation is more homogeneous today than in earlier periods. 5. Synthesis. The long-term decline and recent rapid reductions in Quercus populations throughout southern Scandinavia are striking and indisputable. From the perspective of both the populations of Quercus and its associated species of insects and epiphytes, the recent rate of decline is extremely rapid. Given the former abundance, longevity and capacity for persistence of Quercus, current populations of Quercus and its associated species appear to represent biological legacies in the midst of protracted decline. Based on these results, a reasonable conservation goal is to restore the abundance and distribution of Quercus to levels that preceded the drastic decline in the 18th and 19th centuries. Author Affiliation: (1)Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, PO Box 49, 230 53 Alnarp, Sweden (2)Harvard University, Harvard Forest, 324 North Main Street, Petersham, MA 01366, USA Article History: Received 17 February 2010; accepted 16 August 2010 Handling Editor: Richard Bradshaw Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: matts.lindbladh@ess.slu.se

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01724.x Byline: Fiona J. Thomson (1,2), Angela T. Moles (2), Tony D. Auld (3), Daniel Ramp (1), Shiquan Ren (1), Richard T. Kingsford (1) Keywords: anemochory; ballochory; dispersal; dispersal syndrome; dispersal vectors; endozoochory; epizoochory; hydrochory; myrmecochory; predictive model Abstract: Summary 1. The dispersal capabilities of most plant species remain unknown. However, gaining basic dispersal information is a critical step for understanding species' geographical distributions and for predicting the likely impacts of future climate change. Dispersal mechanisms can indicate short- or long-distance dispersers, and highlight important biological interactions. 2. To predict dispersal mechanisms for species where information is limited, we used generalized linear mixed models with basic life-history and ecological traits. Sets of models were created (using Australian species) for six dispersal categories: wind, unassisted, water, ant, vertebrate-ingestion and vertebrate-attachment dispersal mechanisms. We validated our models on the dispersal mechanisms of 50 Australian, 30 Californian, 30 Swiss plant species and a global compilation of 70 species. 3. Growth form, seed mass and vegetation type were the main predictor variables. Our models predicted dispersal mechanisms for Australian and Californian plant species equally well (c. 70% correct) and to a lesser extent for the Swiss flora (c. 50% correct). Our models predicted observed dispersal mechanisms (c. 50% correct) equally well to inferred dispersal mechanisms (based on seed morphology). 4. Synthesis. Our approach of using easily obtainable traits for predicting dispersal mechanisms of species allows dispersal information to be predicted for species where little is known. From here, the application of realistic dispersal curves to the predicted dispersal mechanisms will further understanding on the dispersal capabilities of species. Author Affiliation: (1)Australian Wetlands and Rivers Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia (2)Evolution & Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia (3)Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney, NSW 2220, Australia Article History: Received 30 May 2010; accepted 29 July 2010 Handling Editor: Hans Cornelissen Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: fiona.thomson@student.unsw.edu.au

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01723.x Byline: Daniele Colombaroli (1), Paul D. Henne (1,2), Petra Kaltenrieder (1), Erika Gobet (1), Willy Tinner (1) Keywords: Alps; Bronze Age; dynamic vegetation model; fire history; human impact; L andC lim model; macroscopic charcoal; palaeoecology and land-use history; regression analyses; tree line ecotone Abstract: Summary 1. We use high-resolution records of macroscopic charcoal and plant remains from sediments of a lake in the Swiss Alps (Gouille Rion, 2343 m a.s.l.) to reconstruct local fire variability and vegetation dynamics over the last 12 000 years. 2. Species response to fire variability and to summer temperature was obtained by combining regression analyses between contiguous series of plant macrofossils, macroscopic charcoal and an available reconstruction of past summer temperature. 3. With a dynamic landscape vegetation model (L andC lim), we simulated fire regimes using two levels of ignition frequency and moisture availability to disentangle the role of climate vs. humans on fire occurrence. The simulation results show that human disturbance was relevant in controlling the fire variability and are in agreement with pollen evidence of human impact from previous studies from Gouille Rion. 4. Our results show that fire is a natural disturbance agent in the tree line ecotone. Biomass availability controlled the fire regime until increased land use and anthropogenic fire during the past 4000 years changed species composition and vegetation structure close to the tree line. 5. Important species at the tree line ecotone such as Pinus cembra greatly benefitted from periods with temperature above the modern mean July temperature, if anthropogenic fire disturbance was not too severe, such as during the Bronze Age (c. 4000 cal. years bp). 6. When mean July temperatures were lower than modern mean July values, Juniperus nana and Larix decidua were at an advantage over P. cembra. With increasing anthropogenic fire, open lands with J. nana replaced L. decidua and P. cembra forest stands. 7. Synthesis. Fire activity was low to moderate during the early and mid-Holocene. Intensified land use coupled with fire occurrence since the Bronze Age (c. 4000 cal. years bp) had a larger impact on species composition near the tree line than climate change. Although climate change will alter vegetation composition, future dynamics of mountain forests will be co-determined by anthropogenic fire. For example, high fire variability may impede upslope establishment of forests in response to climatic warming as expected for this century, with serious implications for forest diversity. Author Affiliation: (1)Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland (2)Department of Environmental Sciences, Forest Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland Article History: Received 11 March 2010; accepted 3 August 2010 Handling Editor: Richard Bradshaw Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: daniele.colombaroli@ips.unibe.ch

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01534.x Byline: CLAUS WEDEKIND (*), CHRISTOPH KUNG ([dagger]) Keywords: climate change; life history; monitoring; population decline; river temperature; salmonid; spawning season Abstract: Abstract: River-dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62-year-long (1948-2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30-40 years. Abstract (Spanish): Cambio en la Epoca de Desove y Efectos del Calentamiento Climatico sobre Etapas de Desarrollo de un Timalo (Salmonidae) Resumen: Los peces de rio, como el timalo europeo (Thymallus thymallus), son susceptibles a los cambios del clima porque a menudo no pueden evitar temperaturas suboptimas, especialmente durante las primeras etapas del desarrollo. Analizamos datos recolectados en programa de monitoreo de la poblacion a lo largo de 62 anos (1948-2009). Timalos machos y hembras fueron muestreados 3 veces/semana durante la temporada anual de desove con el objetivo de seguir el desarrollo de la poblacion. La ocurrencia de hembras con huevos maduros fue utilizada para estimar la temporizacion de cada epoca de desove, En los ultimos anos del estudio la epoca de desove fue mas de 3 semanas antes que en los primero anos. Este cambio fue relacionado con el incremento de las temperaturas del agua registradas en los ultimos 39 anos en el sitio de desove. Al inicio de la primavera las temperaturas incrementaron mas lentamente que al final. Por lo tanto, los embriones y larvas estuvieron expuestos a agua cada vez mas fria en una etapa que es critica para la determinacion del sexo y la resistencia a patogenos en otros salmonidos. Sin embargo, en el verano, los alevines estuvieron expuestos a temperaturas cada vez mas altas. Los cambios en la temperatura del agua en la que encontramos embriones, larvas y alevines pudieran estar contribuyendo a la declinacion en la abundancia que ha ocurrido en los ultimos 30 - 40 anos. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Ecology and Evolution, Biophore, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland, emailclaus.wedekind@unil.ch ([dagger])Fisheries Inspectorate Bern, 3110 Munsingen, Switzerland Article History: Paper submitted October 13, 2009; revised manuscript accepted February 22, 2010.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18168.x Byline: Gary D. Powney, David B. Roy, Daniel Chapman, Tom H. Oliver Abstract: Understanding the mechanisms by which global climate change and habitat loss impact upon biodiversity is essential in order to mitigate any negative impacts. One such impact may be changes to population synchrony (defined as correlated fluctuations in the density of separate populations). It is well established that synchrony depends on both dispersal ability and correlated environmental conditions, for example shared climate. However, what is not clear is whether differences in habitat or position within a species' range also mediate synchrony. Since synchronous metapopulations are thought to be more extinction-prone, establishing the drivers of synchrony has clear conservation implications. Using three butterfly species (Maniola jurtina, Pyronia tithonus and Aphantopus hyperantus) we investigated the effects of habitat similarity and range position on population synchrony, after accounting for the effects of distance and climate. Range position was present in all minimum adequate models, though non-significant using Mantel randomization tests in one case. We show that M. jurtina and P. tithonus synchrony is not consistent across species' ranges, with marginal populations showing more synchronous dynamics. Increased climatic constraints on marginal populations, leading to a narrower range of suitable microhabitats may be responsible for this, which is supported by the result that habitat similarity between sites was also positively correlated with population synchrony. As the landscape becomes increasingly homogeneous, overall population synchrony may be expected to rise. We conclude that habitat modification and climate change have the capacity to drive changes in population synchrony that could make species more vulnerable to extinction. Author Affiliation: (1)NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK (2)NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, EH26 0QB, UK (3)Div. of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK Article History: Paper manuscript accepted 21 January 2010 Article note: G. D. Powney, NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK. E-mail: gary.powney09@imperial.ac.uk

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18508.x Abstract: Climatic influences on animal populations, mediated by changes in condition-dependent survival or reproduction, have long intrigued ecologists. We analyzed links between winter North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), a large scale climatic phenomenon affecting weather conditions over the North Atlantic and the Arctic, and average pre-laying body mass in common eiders. Body mass is a good proxy for condition-dependent reproductive output in this species. Time series links were assessed for two eider populations breeding at high latitudes, over a 10- and a 21-year time series. Winter NAO affected body mass in both populations and these effects were easier to detect when changes in the series rhythm were assessed using a novel method based on data discretization and information theory, rather than detection based on changes in amplitude, assessed using traditional linear models. Winter conditions affected body condition of eiders in both populations. Different mechanisms, however, are likely to be involved in the two populations, one being presumably affected by direct effects of climate and the other by effects through the food chain. Therefore, the same species can respond along different pathways to the same large scale climatic pattern, an important consideration when seeking to understand or manage the response of species to present and future climate change. Author Affiliation: (1)Dept of Biology, Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON, K1A0H3, Canada (2)National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON, K1A0H3, Canada (3)Dept de Biologie, UQAR-CEN, Rimouski, QC, G5L3A1, Canada (4)Norwegian Inst. for Nature Research, Polar Environmental Centre, NO-9296 Tromso, Norway (5)UMR CNRS 5558, Univ. Lyon 1, FR-69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France (6)UMR 7625, UPMC-CNRS-ENS, Ecole Normale Superieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, FR-75230 Paris cedex 05, France, and UMI 209, IRD-UPMC, 32 avenue Henri Varagnat, FR-93142 Bondy cedex, France (7)Dept of Biology, Faculty of Science, Univ. of Tromso, NO-9037 Tromso, Norway Article History: Paper manuscript accepted 21 January 2010 Article note: S. Descamps, Dept of Biology, Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON, K1A0H3, Canada. E-mail: sebastien.descamps@uqar.qc.ca

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01698.x Byline: Maria Laura Suarez (*), Thomas Kitzberger Keywords: drought; establishment rates; extreme climatic events; forest dynamics; Nothofagus dombeyi; plant-climate interactions; release events; tree mortality Abstract: Summary 1. The understanding of the impacts of climate anomalies on demographic processes involved in forest dynamics is becoming a major global change research objective, as climate-driven demographic changes have the potential to alter ecological processes and change the composition of existing communities. 2. Here, we test whether the effects of climatic variability on Nothofagus dombeyi forest dynamics differ along the W-E precipitation gradient of northern Patagonia, Argentina, due to different controlling factors along the gradient. 3. Using a dendroecological approach, we sampled six N. dombeyi stands along the gradient. Tree death, growth release and sapling birth dates were obtained and used to reconstruct stand mortality, canopy disturbance and establishment patterns in each stand. Discrete extreme climatic events were obtained by applying thresholds to meteorological time series. Bivariate event analysis was performed to examine the temporal relationships between climate events and forest demographic and canopy disturbance patterns. 4. In the xeric region, forest dynamics is driven by drought/heat and humid events. Following drought/heat events we observed standing-dead tree mortality, releases in growth, and tree establishment episodes. Regional synchrony of these events was coincident with droughts registered for northern Patagonia. However, successful establishment was related to wet periods that occurred after drought events, showing the dependence on favourable periods for growth. For wet regions, demographic patterns showed a temporally uniform pattern but with synchronies at the regional and local scales. Canopy openings produced by fallen trees, and consequent release in growth and establishment, were related to both drought and snowy/windy years. The effect of drought in wet region forests was related mainly to the extreme 1998-99 drought in northern Patagonia. 5. Synthesis. Climate in northern Patagonia influences N. dombeyi forest dynamics differentially along a precipitation gradient. In xeric forests, strong but relatively short climatic fluctuations impact forest structure through direct effects on tree demography. In wet forests, climatic-induced mechanical disturbance prevails, driving mortality and subsequent growth and establishment. Considering that recent extreme droughts have the strongest negative impact on N. dombeyi populations at the eastern distributional limits, a change in distribution of this species as a consequence of projected climate change is expected. Article History: Received 19 November 2009; accepted 10 June 2010 Handling Editor: Jonathan Newman Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: marialau.suarez@gmail.com

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01503.x Byline: BALINT CZUCZ (*), JOSEPH P. GATHMAN ([dagger]), GUY R. McPHERSON ([double dagger]) Keywords: ecosystem services; EROI; fossil fuels; global change; impact assessment; maximum empower; peak oil; vulnerability assessment Abstract: Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak ('peak oil') and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy-related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario-based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource-constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century. Abstract (Spanish): El Inminente Pico y Declinacion de la Produccion de Petroleo: un Reto Subestimado para la Conservacion de la Integridad Ecologica Resumen: En decadas recientes el petroleo ha sido consumido a un ritmo mucho mas rapido que el desubrimiento de nuevas reservas. Se aproxima el punto en el que la extraccion global de petroleo alcanzara un pico ('cenit del petroleo') y comenzara un periodo de declinacion inevitable. Esta eventualidad producira cambios fundamentales en la cantidad y naturaleza de los flujos de energia en el sistema economico humano, que probablemente estaran acompanados por confusion economica, conflictos politicos y un alto nivel de tension social. Ademas de ser un tema geologico y economico, el cenit del petroleo tambien es una preocupacion fundamental ya que involucra sistemas ecologicos y conservacion porque la economia es un subsistema del ecosistema global y los cambios en los comportamientos humanos relacionados con la energia pueden llevar a un amplio rango de efectos sobre los ecosistemas naturales, desde uso excesivo hasta abandono. A medida que es mas dificil satisfacer las demandas de energia, las consideraciones ambientales pueden ser facilmente desatendidas. Debido a la vital importancia de los ecosistemas y de los servicios del ecosistema en una era postpetroleo, es crucialmente importante manejar nuestros ecosistemas con sensatez durante el periodo de transicion a una economia basada en poco o ningun uso de combustibles fosiles. Se pueden formular buenas politicas por medio de la concienciacion y entendimiento obtenidos de evaluaciones basadas en escenarios. Actualmente, los escenarios globales del cambio ambiental mas utilizados no incorporan la limitacion de recursos, incluyendo los de la Evaluacion de Ecosistemas del Milenio (EEM) y el Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climatico (PICC). Considerando la magnitud potencial de los efectos del cenit del petroleo sobre la sociedad y la naturaleza, el desarrollo de escenarios constrenidos por los recursos debe ser atendido inmediatamente. Ecologos y biologos de la conservacion estan en una posicion importante para analizar la situacion y proporcionar directrices, sin embargo el tema esta notablemente ausente de las discusiones ecologicas. Exhortamos a politicos, directores ejecutivos, lideres de opinion y ciudadanos a que consideren este problema seriamente porque es probable que se convierta en uno de los temas ambientales clave del siglo 21. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Plant Ecology, Institute of Ecology and Botany of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, 2163 Vacratot, Hungary, emailczucz@botanika.hu ([dagger])Department of Biology, University of Wisconsin-River Falls, River Falls, Wisconsin 54022, U.S.A. ([double dagger])Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, School of Natural Resources & the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted February 25, 2009; revised manuscript accepted January 19, 2010.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01492.x Byline: TARA J. ZAMIN (*[dagger][dagger]), JONATHAN E. M. BAILLIE ([dagger]), REBECCA M. MILLER ([double dagger]), JON PAUL RODRIGUEZ ([double dagger]s.), ANA ARDID (**), BEN COLLEN (*) Keywords: 2010 biodiversity target; biodiversity indicators; Convention on Biological Diversity; conservation priorities; gap analysis; Millennium Development Goals; national red lists; regional red lists; threatened species Abstract: Abstract: Following creation of the 2010 Biodiversity Target under the Convention on Biological Diversity and adoption of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, information on status and trends of biodiversity at the national level has become increasingly important to both science and policy. National red lists (NRLs) of threatened species may provide suitable data for reporting on progress toward these goals and for informing national conservation priority setting. This information will also become increasingly important for developing species- and ecosystem-based strategies for climate change adaptation. We conducted a thorough global review of NRLs in 109 countries and analyzed gaps in NRL coverage in terms of geography and taxonomy to determine priority regions and taxonomic groups for further investment. We then examined correlations between the NRL data set and gross domestic product (GDP) and vertebrate species richness. The largest geographic gap was in Oceania, followed by middle Africa, the Caribbean, and western Africa, whereas the largest taxonomic gaps were for invertebrates, fungi, and lichens. The comprehensiveness of NRL coverage within a given country was positively correlated with GDP and negatively correlated with total vertebrate richness and threatened vertebrate richness. This supports the assertion that regions with the greatest and most vulnerable biodiversity receive the least conservation attention and indicates that financial resources may be an integral limitation. To improve coverage of NRLs, we propose a combination of projects that target underrepresented taxa or regions and projects that provide the means for countries to create or update NRLs on their own. We recommend improvements in knowledge transfer within and across regions as a priority for future investment. Abstract (Spanish): Listas Rojas Nacionales Mas Alla de la Meta 2010 Resumen: Despues de la creacion de la Meta 2010 de Biodiversidad bajo la Convencion de Diversidad Biologica y la adopcion de las Metas de Desarrollo Milenio de las Naciones Unidas, la informacion sobre el estatus y las tendencias de la biodiversidad a nivel nacional cada vez es mas importante para la ciencia y la politica. Las listas rojas nacionales (LRNs) de especies amenazadas pueden proporcionar datos adecuados para reportar el progreso hacia esas metas y para informar la definicion de prioridades nacionales de conservacion. Esta informacion tambien sera mas importante para el desarrollo de estrategias basadas en especies y en ecosistemas para adaptacion al cambio climatico. Realizamos una minuciosa revision global de LRNs en 109 paises y analizamos las disparidades en la cobertura de LRN en terminos de geografia y taxonomia para determinar regiones y grupos taxonomicos prioritarios para inversiones adicionales. Posteriormente examinamos las correlaciones entre los datos de LRN y el producto interno bruto (PIB) y la riqueza de especies de vertebrados. La mayor disparidad geografica se localizo en Oceania, seguida por Africa central, el Caribe y Africa occidental, mientras que las mayores disparidades taxonomicas fueron para invertebrados, hongos y liquenes. La extension de la cobertura de LRN en un pais determinado se correlaciono positivamente con el PIB y negativamente con la riqueza de vertebrados y el numero de especies de vertebrados amenazados. Esto sustenta la afirmacion de que regiones con la biodiversidad mas rica y vulnerable reciben la menor atencion de conservacion e indica que los recursos financieros pueden ser una limitante integral. Para mejorar la cobertura de LRNs, proponemos una combinacion de proyectos enfocados a taxa o regiones poco representadas con proyectos que proporcionan medios para que los paises creen o actualicen LRNs por su cuenta. Recomendamos mejoras en la transferencia de conocimiento dentro y entre regiones como una prioridad para futuras inversiones. Author Affiliation: (*)Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom ([dagger])Conservation Programmes, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom ([double dagger])Centro de Ecologia, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas, Apartado 20632, Caracas 1020-A, Venezuela (s.)Provita, Apdo. 47552, Caracas 1041-A, Venezuela (**)Division of Biology, Imperial College, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, United Kingdom Article History: Paper submitted June 8, 2009; revised manuscript accepted September 23, 2009. Article note: ([dagger][dagger]) Current address: Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada; email tara.zamin@queensu.ca

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18292.x Byline: Nicholas Robar, Gary Burness, Dennis L. Murray Abstract: Empirical studies often reveal deleterious effects of parasites on host survival, but the ecological and environmental processes modulating parasite-associated host mortality are not well understood. We conducted meta-analysis of experimental studies assessing parasite-associated mortality (n = 52) to evaluate broad-scale patterns in host mortality risk relative to host or parasite taxon, parasite life cycle, or local environmental conditions. Overall, likelihood of host mortality was [proportional to]2.6 times higher among infected individuals when compared with hosts that either lacked parasites or had experimentally-reduced parasite burdens. Parasites with complex life cycles reliant on predation-mediated transmission generally were associated with higher mortality risk than those exploiting other transmission strategies. We also detected a negative relationship between parasite-associated host mortality and latitude; host mortality risk declined by [proportional to]2.6% with each degree increase in latitude. This result indicated the likely importance of abiotic factors in determining parasite effects. Host taxonomy further influenced parasite-associated mortality risk, with amphibian, fish, and mollusc hosts generally having higher hazard than arthropod, mammal, and bird hosts. Our results suggest patterns that conform to the predicted link between host mortality and parasite transmissibility, and pathogenicity. The relationship between host mortality and latitude in particular may portend marked shifts in host-parasite relationships pursuant to ongoing and projected global climate change. Author Affiliation: (1)Dept of Biology, Trent Univ., 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON, K9J 7B8, Canada Article History: Paper manuscript accepted 10 December 2009 Article note: D. L. Murray, Dept of Biology, Trent Univ., 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON, K9J 7B8, Canada. E-mail: dennismurray@trentu.ca

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01422.x Byline: PAUL BEIER ([dagger]*), BRIAN BROST ([dagger]) Keywords: adaptation; climate change; coarse-filter approach; conservation planning; ecological process; land facets; soil; topography Abstract: Abstract: Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human-caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets-recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes-and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse-filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context-sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k-means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land-facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data-rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist. Abstract (Spanish): Uso de Elementos Territoriales para Planificar para el Cambio Climatico: Conservando las Arenas, No los Actores Resumen: Aun bajo los escenarios mas optimistas, el cambio climatico provocado por humanos sera una amenaza para muchas poblaciones y especies silvestres durante el proximo siglo. La respuesta de conservacion mas util es ampliar y conectar areas protegidas para soportar cambios en la distribucion de plantas y animales. Para priorizar tierras para reservas y corredores, algunos cientificos intentan enlazar cuatro modelos sumamente inciertos (escenarios de emision, circulacion global de aire y oceanos, circulacion regional y respuesta biotica). Este metodo tiene el alto riesgo de propagacion e intensificacion de errores y produce resultados a una escala mas gruesa que las decisiones de conservacion. En su lugar, proponemos que se identifiquen los elementos territoriales- unidades paisajisticas recurrentes con atributos topograficos y edaficos uniformes. Este metodo de filtro grueso podria conservar las arenas de actividad biologica en vez de los ocupantes temporales de esas arenas. Variables integradoras, sensibles al contexto, como la insolacion y la humedad topografica, son utiles para definir los elementos territoriales. Los procedimientos de clasificacion como el algoritmo de las k medias o el agrupamiento difuso son adecuados para definir elementos territoriales porque pueden analizar millones de pixeles y son insensibles al orden de casos. En regiones que carecen de mapas de suelo utiles, los sistemas hidrologicos o las plantas riberenas pueden indicar elementos importantes. Los planificadores de la conservacion deberian fijar objetivos de representacion mas altos para elementos raros y distintivos. La gran diseminacion de los elementos territoriales puede promover procesos ecologicos, interaccion evolutiva y cambios en la distribucion. Estudios relevantes sugieren que la diversidad de elementos territoriales es un buen sustituto para la biodiversidad actual, pero deja de conservar algunas especies. Para minimizar esas fallas, un diseno de reservas basado en elementos territoriales podria complementar, no reemplazar, otros metodos. Los disenos basados en elementos territoriales no estan sesgados hacia areas ricas en datos y pueden ser aplicados donde no existen mapas de cobertura de suelos. Author Affiliation: ([dagger])School of Forestry and Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 96011-5018, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted June 25, 2009; revised manuscript accepted September 9, 2009. Article note: (*) email paul.beier@nau.edu

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01286.x Byline: Hiau Looi Kee (1), Hong Ma (2), Muthukumara Mani (3) Abstract: Abstract (1286) Hiau Looi Kee, Hong Ma and Muthukumara Mani Under the Kyoto Protocol, industrialised countries (called Annex I countries) have to reduce their combined emissions to 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the first commitment period of 2008-12. Efforts to reduce emissions to meet Kyoto targets and beyond have raised issues of competitiveness in countries that are implementing these policies, as well as fear of leakage of carbon-intensive industries to non-implementing countries. This has also led to proposals for tariff or border tax adjustments to offset any adverse impact of capping CO.sub.2 emissions. In this paper we examine the implications of climate change policies such as carbon tax and energy efficiency standards on competitiveness across industries, as well as issues related to leakage, if any, of carbon-intensive industries to developing countries. Though competitiveness issues have been much debated in the context of carbon taxation policies, the study finds no evidence that industries' competitiveness is affected by carbon taxes. In fact, the analysis suggests that exports of most energy-intensive industries increase when a carbon tax is imposed by the exporting countries, or by both importing and exporting countries. This finding gives credence to the initial assumption that recycling the taxes back to the energy-intensive industries by means of subsidies and exemptions may be overcompensating for the disadvantage to those industries. There is, however, no conclusive evidence that supports relocation (leakage) of carbon-intensive industries to developing countries due to stringent climate change policies. Author Affiliation: (1)World Bank (2)University of California, Davis, and Tsinghua University, (3)World Bank

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01618.x Keywords: ecological genomics; enrichment analysis; gene function; Gene Ontology; microarray; precipitation variability; Rainfall Manipulation Plots; tallgrass prairie; transcription profile; warming Abstract: Summary 1. If we are to understand the mechanisms underlying species responses to climate change in natural systems, studies are needed that focus on responses of non-model species under field conditions. We measured transcriptional profiles of individuals of Andropogon gerardii, a C.sub.4 grass native to North American grasslands, in a field experiment in which both temperature and precipitation were manipulated to simulate key aspects of forecasted climate change. 2. By using microarrays developed for a closely related model species, Zea mays, we were able to compare the relative influence of warming versus altered soil moisture availability on expression levels of over 7000 genes, identify responsive functional groups of genes and correlate changes in gene transcription with physiological responses. 3. We observed more statistically significant shifts in transcription levels of genes in response to thermal stress than in response to water stress. We also identified candidate genes that demonstrated transcription levels closely associated with physiological variables, in particular chlorophyll fluorescence. 4.Synthesis. These results suggest that an ecologically important species responds differently to different environmental aspects of forecast climate change. These translational changes have the potential to influence phenotypic characters and ultimately adaptive responses. Author Affiliation: (1)Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA (2)Department of Computer Science, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA (3)Department of Plant Pathology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA (4)Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO 80523, USA (5)Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO 80523, USA (6)USDA-ARS Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Temple, TX 76502, USA (7)Department of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA (8)Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA (9)Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA Article History: Received 16 June 2009; accepted 16 November 2009 Handling Editor: Joop Ouborg Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: steven.travers@ndsu.edu

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01409.x Byline: JOHN A. WIENS (*), DOMINIQUE BACHELET ([dagger][double dagger]) Keywords: climate models; climate change; conservation planning; downscaling; scale; short-grass prairie; the nature conservancy Abstract: Abstract: To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare. Abstract (Spanish): Adecuacion de las Multiples Escalas de Conservacion con las Multiples Escalas de Cambio Climatico Resumen: Para anticipar el mundo rapidamente cambiante como resultado del cambio climatico global, se deben incorporar modelos climaticos a la conservacion. Esto requiere que las escalas de conservacion sean alineadas con las escalas de proyecciones de cambio climatico. Consideramos la forma en que la conservacion ha incorporado la escala espacial en la proteccion de la biodiversidad, como varian con la escala las proyecciones de los modelos de cambio climatico y como se alinean o no las dos. Los planificadores de la conservacion utilizan la informacion sobre condiciones ecologicas pasadas y presentes en multiples escalas para identificar amenazas y objetivos de conservacion y orientar acciones de conservacion. Las proyecciones de cambio climatico tambien se hacen en multiples escalas, desde modelos de circulacion global y regional hasta proyecciones a escalas locales. Estas reduccion en la escala de las proyecciones conlleva las incertidumbres asociadas con los modelos de escala amplia de donde se derivan; por lo tanto, su alta resolucion puede ser mas aparente que real. La conservacion en escalas regionales o globales trata de establecer prioridades e influir en las politicas. En estas escalas, la granulosidad y las incertidumbres de los modelos climaticos globales y regionales pueden ser menos importantes que sus revelaciones sobre los futuros posibles. En la escala ecoregional, las incertidumbres asociadas con la reduccion de escala se vuelven mas criticas porque las distribuciones de los objetivos de conservacion, para los que estan hechos los planes, pueden cambiar bajo climas futuros. En la escala local, las variaciones en la topografia y cobertura de suelo influyen en el clima local, lo cual a menudo invalida los modelos climaticos de mayor escala e incrementa la incertidumbre. A pesar de las incertidumbres, los ecologos y conservacionistas deben trabajar con modeladores de cambio climatico para concentrarse en las proyecciones mas probables. El futuro sera diferente del pasado y estara lleno de sorpresas; el uso juicioso de las proyecciones de modelos en escalas apropiadas puede ayudar a prepararnos. Author Affiliation: (*)PRBO Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11, Petaluma, CA 94954, U.S.A., emailjwiens@prbo.org ([dagger])Oregon State University, Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering, Corvallis, OR 97330, U.S.A. Article note: ([double dagger]) Current address: Conservation Biology Institute, 136 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 202, Corvallis, OR 97333, U.S.A.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01403.x Byline: JOSHUA J. LAWLER (*), SARAH L. SHAFER ([dagger]), ANDREW R. BLAUSTEIN ([double dagger]) Keywords: amphibians; bioclimatic models; climate change; climate impacts; dispersal; range shifts; rare species; western hemisphere Abstract: Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts. Abstract (Spanish): Proyeccion de Impactos del Clima sobre los Anfibios del Hemisferio Occidental Resumen: Debido a sus requerimientos fisiologicos, sus habilidades de dispersion limitadas y los habitats hidrologicamente sensibles, es muy probable que los anfibios sean muy sensibles a los cambios climaticos en el futuro. Utilizamos tres metodos para elaborar mapas de areas en el hemisferio occidental donde es particularmente probable que los anfibios sean afectados por el cambio climatico. Primero, utilizamos modelos bioclimaticos para proyectar cambios potenciales, impulsados por el clima, en la distribucion de 413 especies de anfibios con base en 20 simulaciones del clima entre 2071 y 2100. Sintetizamos estas proyecciones para producir estimaciones de renovacion de especies. Segundo, elaboramos mapas de la distribucion de 1099 especies con distribucion geografica restringida. Finalmente, utilizando las 20 simulaciones de cambio climatico en el futuro, elaboramos mapas que fueron proyectados consistentemente para recibir menos precipitacion estacional en el proximo siglo y por lo tanto era probable que tuvieran microclimas e hidrologias locales alteradas. La renovacion de especies proyectada fue mayor en los Andes y en partes de Centro America y Mexico, donde, en promedio, las tasas de renovacion excedieron el 60% bajo el menor de dos escenarios de emisiones. Muchas de las especies de distribucion restringida no incluidas en nuestros analisis de cambio de distribucion se concentraron en partes de los Andes y de America Central y en el Bosque Atlantico de Brasil. La mayor parte de America Central, suroeste de America del Norte y partes de America del Sur consistentemente fueron proyectadas para experimentar disminucion en la precipitacion para fines de este siglo. La combinacion de los resultados de los tres analisis resalto varias areas en las que es probable que los anfibios sean afectados significativamente por el cambio climatico por multiples razones. Algunas porciones del sur de America Central fueron proyectadas simultaneamente para experimentar una tasa de renovacion alta, incluir muchas especies de distribucion restringida adicionales y fueron proyectadas consistentemente para recibir menos precipitacion. En conjunto, nuestros tres analisis constituyen una evaluacion potencial de la vulnerabilidad geografica de los anfibios al cambio climatico y como tal proporciona directrices a gran escala para la orientacion de los esfuerzos de conservacion. Author Affiliation: (*)College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, U.S.A., emailjlawler@u.washington.edu ([dagger])U.S. Geological Survey, Betsy A. Bancroft, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, U.S.A. ([double dagger])Department of Zoology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, U.S.A.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17674.x Byline: A. S. Kallimanis Abstract: One possible response of species to climate change is shifting their geographical range so as to track their climatic niche. Many concerns have been raised about the species ability to disperse effectively. I argue that species may have mechanisms, like temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), that are responsive to climate change and may facilitate an appropriate shift in their geographical range. More specifically, I hypothesize that, under stable climatic conditions, populations of some TSD species at the edge of their range are regulated by reduced growth rate (due to skewed sex ratios or due to limited availability of suitable nesting sites). Under climate change, these populations face new climatic conditions that trigger fast population growth (e.g. by more balanced sex ratio, or greater availability of nesting sites). Increased population size may lead to increased dispersal, and thus efficient colonization of the newly created habitat patches. So, the species rapidly tracks the geographical position of its climatic niche. This conceptual model is speculative but it leads to specific hypotheses, and opens up new research questions about the existence of prior adaptations that will enable the appropriate response to climate change. Article History: Manuscript Accepted 15 June 2009 Article note: A. S. Kallimanis (akallim@cc.uoi.gr), Dept of Environment and Natural Resource Management, Univ. of Ioannina, G. Seferi 2, GR-30100 Agrinio, Greece.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01602.x Byline: Peter H. Wyckoff (*), Rachel Bowers Keywords: climate change; drought; Minnesota; mortality; prairie-forest ecotone; Quercus macrocarpa; tree-rings Abstract: Summary 1.Quercus macrocarpa (bur oak) is the dominant tree species along much of the prairie-forest border in the northern-central United States, and movement of Q. macrocarpa in response to climate change may determine the rate at which the prairie-forest ecotone shifts. To investigate likely controls over Q. macrocarpa performance at the edge of its range, we used tree rings to establish the links between drought, growth-rate and mortality for three sites spanning the prairie-forest border in Minnesota. 2.Quercus macrocarpa growth during the 20th century correlates strongly with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and more weakly with raw temperature and precipitation values for all three sites. However, the sensitivity of annual growth rates to drought has steadily declined over time as evidenced by increasing growth residuals and higher growth rates for a given PDSI value after 1950 compared with the first half of the century. We hypothesize that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration may lead to increased water-use efficiency, although we cannot rule out other environmental factors. 3. Because growth is an excellent predictor of Q. macrocarpa mortality, growth-climate relationships provide information on whether oak forests will contract, because of individual tree death, when climate changes. For Q. macrocarpa, declining sensitivity of growth to drought translates into lower predicted mortality rates at all sites. At one site, declining moisture sensitivity yields a 49% lower predicted mortality from a severe drought (PDSI = -8, on par with the worst 1930s 'American Dust Bowl' droughts in our study region). 4. Unless the changing relationship between growth and climate is incorporated into forest simulation models, the predicted rate of established tree dieback in a warmer, drier climate may be exaggerated. 5.Synthesis. Adult Quercus macrocarpa trees appear to be increasingly insensitive to drought-induced mortality. Because the species is dominant at the prairie-forest ecotone in the northern-central United States, movement of the ecotone in response to climate change may be delayed for decades. Article History: Received: 17 June 2009; accepted 9 October 2009 Handling Editor: Matthew Turnbull Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: wyckoffp@morris.umn.edu

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01585.x Byline: Harmony J. Dalgleish (*), David N. Koons, Peter B. Adler Keywords: climate change; elasticity; life history; matrix models; mixed-grass prairie; short-lived perennial; stochastic demography Abstract: Summary 1. Climate change will cause changes in average temperature and precipitation as well as increased fluctuations around the mean, yet few studies have considered the impacts of altered climate variability on plant populations. We tested whether life-history traits (expected life span, generation time and seed size) can predict plant responses to increased environmental variability across similar plant species sharing the same habitat. 2. We combined long-term demographic data on 10 prairie forb species with stochastic demography techniques to estimate the effects of potential changes in matrix element means and variances on the long-term stochastic population growth rate. 3. For all 10 species, recruitment had higher contribution and elasticity values than survival, meaning that climate change is more likely to influence population growth through effects on recruitment than on survival for these relatively short-lived forbs. Species with longer generation times had lower elasticities to increases in matrix element variability. 4. Synthesis. Our analysis of a unique, long-term data set suggests that longer-lived plant species will be less vulnerable to the effects of future increases in climate variability. While this relationship was previously reported for diverse taxa from many locations, our results show that it also applies within a guild of short-lived species from a single community. The generality of the pattern demonstrates the potential for using life-history traits to make predictions about which species may be the most vulnerable to climate change. Article History: Received 6 April 2009; accepted 25 August 2009 Handling Editor: Hans de Kroon Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: h.dalgleish@usu.edu

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01335.x Keywords: extinction vulnerability; range shifts; species traits; tropical forest species Abstract: Abstract: We provide a cross-taxon and historical analysis of what makes tropical forest species vulnerable to extinction. Several traits have been important for species survival in the recent and distant geological past, including seed dormancy and vegetative growth in plants, small body size in mammals, and vagility in insects. For major past catastrophes, such as the five mass extinction events, large range size and vagility or dispersal were key to species survival. Traits that make some species more vulnerable to extinction are consistent across time scales. Terrestrial organisms, particularly animals, are more extinction prone than marine organisms. Plants that persist through dramatic changes often reproduce vegetatively and possess mechanisms of die back. Synergistic interactions between current anthropogenic threats, such as logging, fire, hunting, pests and diseases, and climate change are frequent. Rising temperatures threaten all organisms, perhaps particularly tropical organisms adapted to small temperature ranges and isolated by distance from suitable future climates. Mutualist species and trophic specialists may also be more threatened because of such range-shift gaps. Phylogenetically specialized groups may be collectively more prone to extinction than generalists. Characterization of tropical forest species' vulnerability to anthropogenic change is constrained by complex interactions among threats and by both taxonomic and ecological impediments, including gross undersampling of biotas and poor understanding of the spatial patterns of taxa at all scales. Abstract (Spanish): Vulnerabilidad y Resiliencia de Especies de Bosques Tropicales al Cambio de Uso de Suelo Resumen. Aportamos un analisis trans-taxon e historico de lo que hace que las especies de bosques tropicales sean vulnerables a la extincion. Varios atributos han sido importantes para la supervivencia de especies en el pasado reciente y geologico, incluyendo la latencia de semillas y el crecimiento vegetativo en plantas, el tamano corporal pequeno de mamiferos y la vagilidad en insectos. Para las mayores catastrofes del pasado, como los cinco eventos de extincion masiva, la extension del rango y la vagilidad o dispersion fueron claves para la supervivencia de especies. Los atributos que hacen que algunas especies sean mas vulnerables a la extincion son consistentes a traves de las escalas de tiempo. Los organismos terrestres, particularmente animales, son mas propensos a la extincion que los organismos marinos. Las plantas que persisten a traves de cambios dramaticos a menudo se reproducen vegetativamente y poseen mecanismos de muerte regresiva. Las interacciones sinergicas entre amenazas antropogenicas actuales, como explotacion de madera, fuego, caceria, plagas y enfermedades y cambio climatico son frecuentes. Las temperaturas crecientes amenazan a todos los organismos, quizas particularmente a organismos tropicales adaptados a rangos de temperatura pequenos y aislados por distancia de climas futuros adecuados. Las especies mutualistas y los especialistas troficos pueden estar mas amenazados debidos a tales discontinuidades en los cambios de rango. Los grupos filogeneticamente especializados colectivamente pueden ser mas propensos a la extincion que los generalistas. La caracterizacion de la vulnerabilidad de las especies de bosques tropicales al cambio antropogenico esta limitada por las complejas interacciones entre amenazas y tanto por impedimentos taxonomicos y ecologicos, incluyendo el muestreo incompletos de biotas y el pobre entendimiento de los patrones espaciales de taxa a todas las escalas. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Resource Management and Geography, University of Melbourne, 500 Yarra Boulevard, Richmond, Victoria VIC 3121, Australia, emailnstork@unimelb.edu.au ([dagger])Department of Entomology, NHB 105, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C. 20013-7012, U.S.A. ([double dagger])Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, U.S.A. (s.)Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and University Herbarium, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1048, U.S.A. (**)Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, P.O. Box 0843-03092, Balboa Ancon, Republic of Panama ([dagger][dagger])School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom ([double dagger][double dagger])Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford OX2 7LE, United Kingdom

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01258.x Byline: MIGUEL ANGELO MARINI (*), MORGANE BARBET-MASSIN ([dagger]), LEONARDO ESTEVES LOPES ([double dagger]), FREDERIC JIGUET ([dagger]) Keywords: BIOMOD; Cerrado; climate change; conservation planning; ecological-niche modeling; ensemble forecasting; maximum entropy Abstract: Abstract: Climate-change scenarios project significant temperature changes for most of South America. We studied the potential impacts of predicted climate-driven change on the distribution and conservation of 26 broad-range birds from South America Cerrado biome (a savanna that also encompass tracts of grasslands and forests). We used 12 temperature or precipitation-related bioclimatic variables, nine niche modeling techniques, three general circulation models, and two climate scenarios (for 2030, 2065, 2099) for each species to model distribution ranges. To reach a consensus scenario, we used an ensemble-forecasting approach to obtain an average distribution for each species at each time interval. We estimated the range extent and shift of each species. Changes in range size varied across species and according to habitat dependency; future predicted range extent was negatively correlated with current predicted range extent in all scenarios. Evolution of range size under full or null dispersal scenarios varied among species from a 5% increase to an 80% decrease. The mean expected range shifts under null and full-dispersal scenarios were 175 and 200 km, respectively (range 15-399 km), and the shift was usually toward southeastern Brazil. We predicted larger range contractions and longer range shifts for forest- and grassland-dependent species than for savanna-dependent birds. A negative correlation between current range extent and predicted range loss revealed that geographically restricted species may face stronger threat and become even rarer. The predicted southeasterly direction of range changes is cause for concern because ranges are predicted to shift to the most developed and populated region of Brazil. Also, southeastern Brazil is the least likely region to contain significant dispersal corridors, to allow expansion of Cerrado vegetation types, or to accommodate creation of new reserves. Abstract (Spanish): Cambios Previstos en la Distribucion de Aves Debido al Cambio Climatico y Pronostico de Conflictos de Conservacion en una Sabana Neotropical Resumen: Los escenarios del cambio climatico proyectan cambios significativos en la temperatura de casi toda America del Sur. Estudiamos los impactos potenciales de cambios -debidos al cambio climatico - previstos en la distribucion y conservacion de 26 especies de aves de amplia distribucion en el bioma Cerrado de America del Sur (una sabana que tambien comprende extensiones de campos y bosques). Utilizamos 12 variables bioclimaticas relacionadas con la temperatura y la precipitacion, nueve tecnicas de modelado de nicho, tres modelos generales de circulacion y dos escenarios climaticos (para 2030, 2065 y 2099) para cada especie para modelar sus rangos de distribucion. Para alcanzar un consenso de escenario, utilizamos un metodo de pronostico de ensamble para obtener una distribucion promedio para cada especie en cada intervalo de tiempo. Estimamos la extension y el cambio de rango en cada especie. Los cambios en el area de distribucion variaron en las especies en funcion de la dependencia de habitat; el rango de distribucion futuro pronosticado se correlaciono negativamente con el rango actual en todos los escenarios. La evolucion del tamano del rango bajo escenarios de dispersion total o nula vario entre especies desde un 5% de incremento hasta 80% de decremento. Los cambios promedio esperados bajos escenarios de dispersion nula y total fueron 175 y 200 km, respectivamente (rango 15 a 399 km), y los cambios generalmente fueron hacia el sureste de Brasil. Pronosticamos mayores contracciones de rango y cambios de rango mas largos para especies dependientes de bosque y de campos que para las aves dependientes de la sabana. Una correlacion negativa entre el rango actual y la perdida pronosticada revelo que una especie geograficamente restringida puede enfrentar mayor amenaza y volverse aun mas rara. La direccion sureste pronosticada en los cambios de rango es motivo de preocupacion porque se pronostico que los rangos cambiaran hacia la region mas desarrollada y poblada de Brasil. Tambien, el sureste de Brasil es la region que contiene menos corredores de dispersion, como para permitir la expansion de los tipos de vegetacion del Cerrado, o acomodar la creacion de nuevas reservas. Author Affiliation: (*)Departamento de Zoologia, IB, Universidade de Brasilia, 70910-900, Brasilia, DF, Brazil, emailmarini@unb.br ([dagger])CRBPO, UMR 5173 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC Conservation des Especes, Restauration et Suivi des Populations, 55 rue Buffon, CP 51, 75005 Paris, France ([double dagger])Laboratorio de Ornitologia, Departamento de Zoologia, ICB, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, 31270-910, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil Article History: Paper submitted January 20, 2009; revised manuscript accepted February 5, 2009.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2009.01253.x Byline: Ashley R. Coles (1), Christopher A. Scott (1) Keywords: Climate; Agriculture; Vulnerability; Risk; Adaptation; Information Abstract: Abstract Agricultural and livestock producers experiencing climate change and variability are simultaneously subject to other sources of environmental vulnerability, as well as political, social, and economic uncertainty. Producers' adaptive decision making takes into account short-term seasonal factors, while seeking to preserve livelihood stability over the long term. This study identifies multiple sources of vulnerability for farmers and ranchers in southeastern Arizona, and the adaptive strategies they have adopted including the use of information such as seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs). Interviews with producers and extension agents in Pima and Cochise Counties reveal that the principal climatic risks are drought, floods and frosts, and that groundwater use remains a crucial strategy despite increasing pumping costs. Low risk tolerance and uncertainty of seasonal production and marketing conditions diminish the utility of SCFs as a decision-making tool. Instead, farmers and ranchers continue to rely on past experience and short-range forecasts, hedging each year instead of taking significant risks. By examining the role of climate information in complex production decisions, the study shows that access to information is not the principal limitation to improving decision making. Comparison to other regions reaffirms common vulnerabilities among producers and highlights research and communication needs that have global relevance. Author Affiliation: (1)University of Arizona, USA Article note: E-mail: coles@email.arizona.edu

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01246.x Byline: ERICA FLEISHMAN (*), DENNIS D. MURPHY ([dagger]) Keywords: climate change; indicator species; land cover; land use; monitoring and assessment; surrogate species; validation Abstract: Abstract: Charismatic groups of animals and plants often are proposed as sentinels of environmental status and trends. Nevertheless, many claims that a certain taxonomic group can provide more-general information on environmental quality are not evaluated critically. To address several of the many definitions of indicator species, we used butterflies to explore in some detail the attributes that affect implementation of indicators generically. There probably are few individual species, or sets of species, that can serve as scientifically valid, cost-effective measures of the status or trend of an environmental phenomenon that is difficult to measure directly. Nevertheless, there are species with distributions, abundances, or demographic characteristics that are responsive to known environmental changes. In this context, single or multiple species can serve as indicators when targets are defined explicitly, ecological relationships between the target and the putative indicators are well understood, and data are sufficient to differentiate between deterministic and stochastic responses. Although these situations exist, they are less common than might be apparent from an extensive and often confounded literature on indicators. Instead, the public appeal of charismatic groups may be driving much of their acclaim as indicators. The same taxon may not be appropriate for marketing a general conservation mission and for drawing strong inference about specific environmental changes. To provide insights into the progress of conservation efforts, it is essential to identify scientific and practical criteria for selection and application of indicators and then to examine whether a given taxonomic group meets those criteria. Abstract (Spanish): Una Evaluacion Realista del Potencial Indicador de Mariposas y Otros Grupos Taxonomicos Carismaticos Resumen: A menudo, los grupos carismaticos de animales y plantas son propuestos como centinelas del estatus y las tendencias ambientales. Sin embargo, muchas afirmaciones de que un cierto grupo taxonomico puede proporcionar informacion mas general de la calidad ambiental no son evaluadas criticamente. Para abordar varias de las muchas definiciones de especies indicadoras, utilizamos mariposas para explorar en detalle los atributos que afectan la implementacion de indicadores genericamente. Probablemente hay pocas especies individuales, o conjuntos de especies, que pueden servir como medidas, cientificamente validas y rentables, del estatus o la tendencia de un fenomeno ambiental que es dificil de medir directamente. Sin embargo, hay especies con distribuciones, abundancias o caracteristicas demograficas que responden a cambios ambientales conocidos. En este contexto, especies individuales o multiples pueden servir como indicadores cuando los blancos son definidos explicitamente, las relaciones ecologicas entre el blanco y los indicadores putativos estan bien entendidas y los datos son suficientes para diferenciar entre respuestas deterministicas y estocasticas. Aunque estas situaciones existen, son menos comunes de lo que pudiera parecer en una literatura extensa, y a menudo confusa, sobre indicadores. En su lugar, el reconocimiento publico de los grupos carismaticos puede ser la causa de su reconocimiento como indicadores. El mismo taxon puede ser no apropiado para el mercadeo de una mision de conservacion general y para inferir sobre cambios ambientales especificos. Para proporcionar una vision del progreso de los esfuerzos de conservacion, es esencial identificar criterios cientificos y practicos para la seleccion y aplicacion de indicadores y posteriormente examinar si un grupo taxonomico determinado cumple con esos criterios. Author Affiliation: (*)National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, U.S.A., emailfleishman@nceas.ucsb.edu ([dagger])Department of Biology, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted July 10, 2008; revised manuscript accepted February 12, 2009.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01547.x Keywords: carbon; climate change; DGVM; feedbacks; GCM; models; PFT; plant; soil Abstract: Summary 1. Plant-soil interactions play a central role in the biogeochemical carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and hydrological cycles. In the context of global environmental change, they are important both in modulating the impact of climate change and in regulating the feedback of greenhouse gas emissions (CO.sub.2, CH.sub.4 and [N.sub.2]O) to the climate system. 2. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) represent the most advanced tools available to predict the impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystem functions and to examine their feedbacks to climate change. The accurate representation of plant-soil interactions in these models is crucial to improving predictions of the effects of climate change on a global scale. 3. In this paper, we describe the general structure of DGVMs that use plant functional types (PFTs) classifications as a means to integrate plant-soil interactions and illustrate how models have been developed to improve the simulation of: (a) soil carbon dynamics, (b) nitrogen cycling, (c) drought impacts and (d) vegetation dynamics. For each of these, we discuss some recent advances and identify knowledge gaps. 4. We identify three ongoing challenges, requiring collaboration between the global modelling community and process ecologists. First, the need for a critical evaluation of the representation of plant-soil processes in global models; second, the need to supply and integrate knowledge into global models; third, the testing of global model simulations against large-scale multifactor experiments and data from observatory gradients. 5. Synthesis. This paper reviews how plant-soil interactions are represented in DGVMs that use PFTs and illustrates some model developments. We also identify areas of ecological understanding and experimentation needed to reduce uncertainty in future carbon coupled climate change predictions. Author Affiliation: (1)Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK (2)Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, St Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK (3)Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK (4) Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography & the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK (5)Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, Edinburgh EH26 0QB, UK (6)School of Geosciences, Edinburgh University, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK (7)Soil and Ecosystem Ecology Group, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK Article History: Received 10 March 2009; accepted 22 June 2009 Handling Editor: Hans Cornelissen Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: no@ceh.ac.uk

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01529.x Byline: F. Stuart Chapin III (1), Jack McFarland (1), A. David McGuire (2), Eugenie S. Euskirchen (1), Roger W. Ruess (1), Knut Kielland (1) Keywords: carbon cycle; climate change; decomposition; heterotrophic respiration; mycorrhizas; net ecosystem production; net primary production; roots; soil carbon Abstract: Summary Most current climate-carbon cycle models that include the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are based on a model developed 40 years ago by Woodwell & Whittaker (1968) and omit advances in biogeochemical understanding since that time. Their model treats net C emissions from ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR, i.e. primarily decomposition). Under conditions near steady state, geographic patterns of decomposition closely match those of NPP, and net C emissions are adequately described as a simple balance of NPP and HR (the Woodwell-Whittaker model). This close coupling between NPP and HR occurs largely because of tight coupling between C and N (nitrogen) cycles and because NPP constrains the food available to heterotrophs. Processes in addition to NPP and HR become important to understanding net C emissions from ecosystems under conditions of rapid changes in climate, hydrology, atmospheric CO.sub.2, land cover, species composition and/or N deposition. Inclusion of these processes in climate-C cycle models would improve their capacity to simulate recent and future climatic change. Processes that appear critical to soil C dynamics but warrant further research before incorporation into ecosystem models include below-ground C flux and its partitioning among roots, mycorrhizas and exudates; microbial community effects on C sequestration; and the effects of temperature and labile C on decomposition. The controls over and consequences of these processes are still unclear at the ecosystem scale. Carbon fluxes in addition to NPP and HR exert strong influences over the climate system under conditions of rapid change. These fluxes include methane release, wildfire, and lateral transfers of food and fibre among ecosystems. Water and energy exchanges are important complements to C cycle feedbacks to the climate system, particularly under non-steady-state conditions. An integrated understanding of multiple ecosystem-climate feedbacks provides a strong foundation for policies to mitigate climate change. Synthesis. Current climate systems models that include only NPP and HR are inadequate under conditions of rapid change. Many of the recent advances in biogeochemical understanding are sufficiently mature to substantially improve representation of ecosystem C dynamics in these models. Author Affiliation: (1)Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA (2)U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA Article History: Received 5 March 2009; accepted 3 June 2009 Handling Editor: Richard Bardgett Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail terry.chapin@uaf.edu

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01526.x Keywords: climate; latitude; plant ecological strategy; precipitation; temperature Abstract: Summary Plant height is a central part of plant ecological strategy. It is strongly correlated with life span, seed mass and time to maturity, and is a major determinant of a species' ability to compete for light. Plant height is also related to critical ecosystem variables such as animal diversity and carbon storage capacity. However, remarkably little is known about global patterns in plant height. Here, we use maximum height data for 7084 plant Species x Site combinations to provide the first global, cross-species quantification of the latitudinal gradient in plant height. The mean maximum height of species growing within 15[degrees] of the equator (7.8 m) was 29 times greater than the height of species between 60[degrees] and 75[degrees] N (27 cm), and 31 times greater than the height of species between 45[degrees] and 60[degrees] S (25 cm). There was no evidence that the latitudinal gradient in plant height was different in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere (P = 0.29). A 2.4-fold drop in plant height at the edge of the tropics (P = 0.006) supports the idea that there might be a switch in plant strategy between temperate and tropical zones. We investigated 22 environmental variables to determine which factors underlie the latitudinal gradient in plant height. We found that species with a wide range of height strategies were present in cold, dry, low productivity systems, but there was a noticeable lack of very short species in wetter, warmer, more productive sites. Variables that capture information about growing conditions during the harsh times of the year were relatively poor predictors of height. The best model for global patterns in plant height included only one term: precipitation in the wettest month (R.sup.2 = 0.256). Synthesis. We found a remarkably steep relationship between latitude and height, indicating a major difference in plant strategy between high and low latitude systems. We also provide new, surprising information about the correlations between plant height and environmental variables. Author Affiliation: (1)Evolution & Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia (2)School of Mathematics and Statistics and Evolution & Ecology Research Centre, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia (3)Center for Tropical Forest Science - Asia Program, Arnold Arboretum, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02130-3500, USA (4)School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia (5)National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, 2024 W. Main St., Durham, NC 27705, USA (6)Department of Biology, University of Missouri, St. Louis, MO 63121-4400, USA (7)Climate Change Research Centre, Faculty of Science, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia (8)Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia Article History: Received 1 February 2009; accepted 13 May 2009 Handling Editor: David Gibson Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: a.moles@unsw.edu.au

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2009.00569.x Byline: Rafael Reuveny (1), Will H. Moore (2) Abstract: Objective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will intensify during the 21st century. The exact distribution of impacts will likely be complex in nature. Although some areas may exhibit benefits, many areas will likely experience environmental decline. The objective of this article is to answer the following question: What are the potential implications of deteriorating environmental conditions for human migration? This is not an easy question to answer because the full effects of climate change are not yet completely evident. Yet by studying the impact of environmental forces on migration in recent decades, we can offer some insight to this question. Methods. In implementing this approach, we employ theoretical and empirical methods. Our theoretical model suggests that environmental degradation should promote out-migration from affected areas, all other things being equal. To test this prediction empirically, we conduct a large-N statistical analysis focusing on the role of several environmental factors in emigration to developed countries. Our empirical sample covers the late 1980s and the 1990s. Results. The empirical results suggest that environmental decline plays a statistically significant role in out-migration, pushing people to leave their homes and move to other countries. Conclusions. In the conclusions section of this article, we evaluate the policy implications of these findings for developed countries in the context of climate change and national security. Author Affiliation: (1)Indiana University (2)Florida State University

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17558.x Byline: Asa Berggren, Christer Bjorkman, Helena Bylund, Matthew P. Ayres Abstract: Current predictions regarding the ecological consequences of climate change on animal populations are generally autecological and species-specific, and/or non-mechanistic extrapolations of recent short-term patterns. To better understand and predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of species and the abundance of populations we offer a novel, broad theoretical framework. Climate-induced changes in trophic structure may actually be more predictable than effects on individual species. The logic is that there are general differences in climatic sensitivity among trophic levels - specifically, that as one moves up trophic levels, there is an increase in the temperature sensitivity of vital rates. More precisely, we provide: (1) a formal mathematical definition of distribution limits that is both operational and conceptual, introducing the concept DL.sub.50, defined as the geographic and climatic isoline representing an equilibrium occupancy of half of the suitable habitats; (2) a matrix of the possible changes in trophic structure from climate change and the general theoretical consequences; and (3) a new idea that predicts broad effects of climatic warming on trophic systems. Our intention is to help meet the challenge of developing and testing general theoretical models that can predict which species will be winners and losers in ecological time, which evolutionary traits will be favoured or selected against, and what will be consequences for ecosystem structure and function. Article History: Manuscript Accepted 17 March 2009 Article note: A. Berggren (asa.berggren@ekol.slu.se), C. Bjorkman and H. Bylund, Dept of Ecology, PO Box 7044, Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden. - M. P. Ayres, Dept of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, 103 Gilman Hall, Hanover, NH 03755, USA.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01287.x Keywords: Oceania; extinctions; conservation policy; hotspot; extinction causes Abstract: Abstract: Oceania is a diverse region encompassing Australia, Melanesia, Micronesia, New Zealand, and Polynesia, and it contains six of the world's 39 hotspots of diversity. It has a poor record for extinctions, particularly for birds on islands and mammals. Major causes include habitat loss and degradation, invasive species, and overexploitation. We identified six major threatening processes (habitat loss and degradation, invasive species, climate change, overexploitation, pollution, and disease) based on a comprehensive review of the literature and for each developed a set of conservation policies. Many policies reflect the urgent need to deal with the effects of burgeoning human populations (expected to increase significantly in the region) on biodiversity. There is considerable difference in resources for conservation, including people and available scientific information, which are heavily biased toward more developed countries in Oceania. Most scientific publications analyzed for four threats (habitat loss, invasive species, overexploitation, and pollution) are from developed countries: 88.6% of Web of Science publications were from Australia (53.7%), New Zealand (24.3%), and Hawaiian Islands (10.5%). Many island states have limited resources or expertise. Even countries that do (e.g., Australia, New Zealand) have ongoing and emerging significant challenges, particularly with the interactive effects of climate change. Oceania will require the implementation of effective policies for conservation if the region's poor record on extinctions is not to continue. Abstract (Spanish): Principales Cuestiones de Politicas de Conservacion de la Biodiversidad en Oceania Resumen: Oceania en una region diversa que comprende Australia, Melanesia, Micronesia, Nueva Zelanda y Polinesia, y contiene seis de las 39 regiones de importancia para la biodiversidad del mundo. Tiene un triste registro de extinciones, particularmente para aves en islas y mamiferos en Australia. Las principales causas incluyen la perdida y degradacion de habitat, especies invasoras y sobreexplotacion. Identificamos seis procesos principales de amenaza (perdida y degradacion de habitat, especies invasoras, cambio climatico, sobreexplotacion, polucion y enfermedades) con base en una revision exhaustiva de literatura y desarrollamos un conjunto de politicas de conservacion para cada uno. Muchas politicas reflejan la necesidad urgente para tratar con los efectos de las poblaciones humanas en rapido crecimiento sobre la biodiversidad. Hay considerable diferencia en recursos para la conservacion, incluyendo gente e informacion cientifica disponible, que estan fuertemente sesgados hacia los paises mas desarrollados en Oceania. La mayoria de las publicaciones cientificas analizaron cuatro amenazas (perdida de habitat, especies invasoras, sobreexplotacion y polucion) en cuatro paises desarrollados: 88.6% de las publicaciones de Web of Science fueron de Australia (53.7%), Nueva Zelanda (34.3%) e islas Hawaianas (10.5%). Muchos paises insulares tienen escasos recursos o experticia. Aun los paises (e.g., Australia, Nueva Zelanda) que los tienen enfrentan significativos retos actuales y emergentes, particularmente con los efectos interactivos del cambio climatico. Oceania requerira de la implementacion de politicas de conservacion efectivas si el triste registro de extinciones en la region no debe continuar. Author Affiliation: (*)School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, New South Wales 2052, Australia ([dagger])Centre for Applied Environmental Decision Analysis, The Ecology Centre, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia ([double dagger])National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 11115, Hamilton 3251, New Zealand (s.)Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, 2109, Australia (**)Conservation International Pacific Islands Program, P.O. Box 2035, Apia, Samoa ([dagger][dagger])Guam Environmental Protection Agency, P.O. 22439 GMF, Barrigada, Guam, 96931 ([double dagger][double dagger])Department of Environment & Climate Change, P.O. Box 1967, Hurstville 2220 Australia (s.s.)The Fenner School of Environment & Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia (***)Department of Conservation, Kauri Coast Area Office, 150 Colville Road, RD 7, Dargaville, New Zealand ([dagger][dagger][dagger])The Nature Conservancy - Micronesia Program, Kolonia, Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia ([double dagger][double dagger][double dagger])School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, Western Australia 6027, Australia (s.s.s.)School of Integrative Biology, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, 4072, Australia Article History: Paper submitted April 2, 2009; revised manuscript accepted April 3, 2009. Article note: ([dagger][dagger][dagger][dagger]) email rkingsford@science.unsw.edu.au

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01506.x Byline: Riikka Rinnan (1,2), Sari Stark (3), Anne Tolvanen (4,5) Keywords: Biolog; climate change; ITEX; microbial biomass; nutrient cycling; PLFA; soil microbial community; temperature; Vaccinium myrtillus; vegetation cover Abstract: Summary Climate warming increases the cover of deciduous shrubs in arctic ecosystems and herbivory is also known to have a strong influence on the biomass and composition of vegetation. However, research combining herbivory with warming is largely lacking. Our study describes how warming and simulated herbivory affect vegetation, soil nutrient concentrations and soil microbial communities after 10-13 years of exposure. We established a factorial warming and herbivory-simulation experiment at a subarctic tundra heath in Kilpisjarvi, Finland, in 1994. Warming was carried out using the open-top chamber setup of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Wounding of the dominant deciduous dwarf shrub Vaccinium myrtillus L. to simulate herbivory was carried out annually. We measured vegetation cover in 2003 and 2007, soil nutrient concentrations in 2003 and 2006, soil microbial respiration in 2003, and composition and function of soil microbial communities in 2006. Warming increased the cover of V. myrtillus, whereas other plant groups did not show any response. Simulated herbivory of V. myrtillus cancelled out the impact of warming on the species cover, and increased the cover of other dwarf shrubs. The concentrations of -N, and microbial biomass C and N in the soil were significantly reduced by warming after 10 treatment years but not after 13 treatment years. The reduction in -N by warming was significant only without simultaneous herbivory treatment, which indicates that simulated herbivory reduced N uptake by vegetation. Soil microbial community composition, based on phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis, was slightly altered by warming. The activity of cultivable bacterial and fungal communities was significantly increased by warming and the substrate utilization patterns were influenced by warming and herbivory. Synthesis. Our results show that warming increases the cover of V. myrtillus, which seems to enhance the nutrient sink strength of vegetation in the studied ecosystem. However, herbivory partially negates the effect of warming on plant N uptake and interacts with the effect of warming on microbial N immobilization. Our study demonstrates that effects of warming on soil microorganisms are likely to differ in the presence and absence of herbivores. Author Affiliation: (1)Department of Microbial Ecology, Lund University, Ecology Building, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden (2)Terrestrial Ecology Section, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Oster Farimagsgade 2D, DK-1353 Copenhagen K, Denmark (3)Finnish Forest Research Institute, Rovaniemi Research Unit, Etelaranta 55, FI-96301 Rovaniemi, Finland (4)Finnish Forest Research institute, Muhos Research Unit, Kirkkosaarentie 7, FI-91500 Muhos, Finland (5)Department of Biology, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 3000, FI-90014, University of Oulu, Finland Article History: Received 13 November 2008; accepted 17 March 2009Handling Editor: Richard Bardgett Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: riikkar@bio.ku.dk

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-5871.2008.00549.x Byline: C. MAX FINLAYSON (1,4), IAN ELIOT (2), MATTHEW ELIOT (3) Keywords: coastal; wetlands; monitoring; strategic planning Abstract: Abstract A strategic framework for monitoring natural and human-induced change in the coastal plains of the Alligator Rivers Region in the wet-dry tropics of northern Australia is presented. The framework also supports refinement of methods used to monitor the vulnerability of coastal areas to change, including human-induced climate change and sea-level rise. The information derived through the framework can be used to assess scenarios, highlight the potential significance and implications of changes, and assist land managers formulate management responses. The framework incorporates several large-scale studies for monitoring atmospheric and hydrodynamic processes as well as mapping and monitoring projects specific to environmental change in the freshwater wetlands and the floodplains of the Region. Monitoring is proposed to address processes influencing the stability and rate of change of the floodplain environments. These include large-scale processes, such as inter-annual variability in weather conditions affecting the morphology of the coastal plains, shoreline and riverbank stabilisation, headward expansion of tidal creeks, and salinisation of freshwater basins. Information management is also addressed, and a Geographic Information System structure proposed for effective data collation, analysis and management. The information management system will facilitate data sharing and participation of multiple agencies and organisations interested in coastal change, especially where a landscape perspective or whole ecosystem approach is advocated. Author Affiliation: (1)International Water Management Institute, PO Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka. (2)School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia. (3)School of Environmental Systems Engineering, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia. (4)Present address: Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, PO Box 789, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia. Article History: Received 24 December 2004; Revised 23 October 2007; Accepted 14 January 2008 Article note: (*) Corresponding author. Email: mfinlayson@csu.edu.au

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01212.x Keywords: biodiversity; conservation; horizon scanning; policy; priority setting; research agenda; research questions Abstract: Abstract: We identified 100 scientific questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on conservation practice and policy. Representatives from 21 international organizations, regional sections and working groups of the Society for Conservation Biology, and 12 academics, from all continents except Antarctica, compiled 2291 questions of relevance to conservation of biological diversity worldwide. The questions were gathered from 761 individuals through workshops, email requests, and discussions. Voting by email to short-list questions, followed by a 2-day workshop, was used to derive the final list of 100 questions. Most of the final questions were derived through a process of modification and combination as the workshop progressed. The questions are divided into 12 sections: ecosystem functions and services, climate change, technological change, protected areas, ecosystem management and restoration, terrestrial ecosystems, marine ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems, species management, organizational systems and processes, societal context and change, and impacts of conservation interventions. We anticipate that these questions will help identify new directions for researchers and assist funders in directing funds. Abstract (Spanish): Cien Preguntas de Importancia para la Conservacion de la Diversidad Biologica Global Resumen: Identificamos 100 preguntas cientificas que, de ser contestadas, tendrian el mayor impacto sobre la practica y las politicas de conservacion. Representantes de 21 organizaciones internacionales, secciones regionales y grupos de trabajo de la Sociedad para la Conservacion Biologica y 12 academicos, de todos los continenetes excepto Antartica, compilaron 2291 preguntas de relevancia para la conservacion de la diversidad biologica mundial. Las preguntas fueron obtenidas de 761 individuos mediante talleres, solicitudes por correo electronico y discusiones. Se utilizo una votacion por correo electronico de listas cortas de preguntas, seguida de un taller de dos dias, para derivar la lista final de 100 preguntas. La mayoria de las preguntas finales fueron derivadas mediante un proceso de modificacion y combinacion a medida que el taller progresaba. Las preguntas estan divididas en 12 secciones: funciones y servicios de los ecosistemas, cambio climatico, cambio tecnologico, areas protegidas, manejo y restauracion de ecosistemas, ecosistemas terrestres, ecosistemas marinos, ecosistemas dulceacuicolas, manejo de especies, sistemas y procesos organizacionales, contexto y cambio social e impactos de las intervenciones de conservacion. Anticipamos que estas preguntas ayudaran a identificar nuevas direcciones para los investigadores y asistiran a los financiadores en la asignacion de fondos. Author Affiliation: (1)Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom, emailw.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk (2)Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, United Kingdom (3)International Society for Reef Studies, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Boulevard, Melbourne, FL 32901, U.S.A. (4)Fauna and Flora International, Jupiter House, 4th Floor, Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2JD, United Kingdom (5)Institute of Zoology, the Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom (6)Traffic International, 219a Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, United Kingdom (7)SCB Austral and Neotropical Americas Section, Instituto de Ecologia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, AP 70-275, Mexico, D.F. 04510, Mexico (8)Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada (9)Department of Botany, P.O. Box 77000, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Port Elizabeth 6031, South Africa (10)GEF Secretariat, 1818 H Street, NW, MSN G6-602, Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. (11)World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037, U.S.A. (12)Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, P.O. Box 3992, Atlanta, GA 30302-3992, U.S.A. (13)SCB North America Section, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, U.S.A. (14)Conservation International, Office of Programs and Science, 2011 Crystal Drive Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202, U.S.A. (15)Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, U.S.A. (16)UNEP-WCMC, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, United Kingdom (17)The Nature Conservancy, 4722 Latona Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98105, U.S.A. (18)Tropical Biology Association, Nature Kenya, P.O. Box 44486, 00100 Nairobi, Kenya (19)Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, University of Oxford, Tubney House, Abingdon Road, Tubney, Oxon OX13 5QL, United Kingdom (20)Environment Department, World Bank, 1818 H Street, Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. (21)Wetlands International, P.O. Box 471, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands (22)SCB Social Science Working Group, World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037, U.S.A. (23)IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, Gland 1196, Switzerland (24)Imperial College London, Division of Biology, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, United Kingdom (25)Cambridge Conservation Initiative, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom (26)SCB Australasia Section, Department of Conservation, Kauri Coast Area Office, 150 Colville Road, RD7, Dargaville 0377, New Zealand (27)Darwin Initiative Secretariat, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Area 3D, Nobel House, 17 Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR, United Kingdom (28)Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon SN2 1EU, United Kingdom (29)SCB Asia Section, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Clemson University, 261 Lehotsky Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, U.S.A. (30)SCB Marine Section, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, MSN 5F2, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, U.S.A. (31)British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom (32)University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia (33)SCB Europe Section, Centre for Evidence-Based Conservation, School of the Environment and Natural Resources, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd LL57 2UW, United Kingdom (34)BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge CB3 0NA, United Kingdom (35)Science and Research, World Resources Institute, 10 G Street NE, Washington, D.C. 20002, U.S.A. (36)WCS Institute, Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300 Southern Boulevard, Bronx, NY 10460, U.S.A. (37)Centro de Ecologia, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas, Apdo. 20632, Caracas 1020-A, Venezuela (38)Jalan Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16115, Indonesia (39)Ocean Conservancy, 8th Floor, 1300 19th Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20036, U.S.A. (40)Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117543, and Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A. (41)Natural Environment Science Division, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 1/05 Temple Quay House, Bristol BS1 6EB, United Kingdom (42)SCB Freshwater Working Group, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, U.S.A. (43)Living With Environmental Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom Article History: Paper submitted October 19, 2008; revised manuscript accepted January 12, 2009 Article note: (*) Current address: Cambridge Conservation Initiative, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1AG, United Kingdom (**) Current address: Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), Monkstone House, City Road, Peterborough PE1 1JY, United Kingdom.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01498.x Keywords: climate change; drought; herbaceous; nitrogen deposition; nutrients; semi-arid savanna; tree-grass competition; water; woody seedling Abstract: Summary Globally, both climatic patterns and nitrogen deposition rates show directional changes over time. It is uncertain how woody seedlings, which coexist with herbaceous plants in savannas, respond to concurrent changes in water and nutrient availability. We investigated competition effects between herbaceous vegetation and tree seedlings (Colophospermum mopane) under changed water and nutrient (fertilized) conditions in a garden experiment situated in a semi-arid savanna. Herbaceous competition significantly suppressed woody seedling growth. The effect of herbaceous competition on woody seedling growth remained constant with both increasing water and nutrient availability. However, during a wet-season drought, herbaceous competition apparently caused premature leaf senescence in non-irrigated treatments. Fertilization exacerbated negative competition effects during the drought, while irrigation prevented leaf loss of tree seedlings in spite of herbaceous competition and fertilization. Based on a conceptual model, we propose that the vigorous response of herbaceous plants to increased nutrient availability leads to faster depletion of soil water, which increasingly causes water stress in woody seedlings if the interval between watering events is prolonged, e.g. during wet-season droughts. Synthesis. Our data support the notion that changes in drought frequency are of greater importance to woody recruitment success than changes in annual rainfall amount. Based on the water and nutrient interactions observed in our experiment, we suggest that the effect of increased nitrogen deposition on woody seedling recruitment is contingent on water availability. Author Affiliation: (1)Resource Ecology Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands (2)Department of Experimental Plant Ecology, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands (3)International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, P.O. Box 6, 7500 AA Enschede, The Netherlands (4)Scientific Services, Kruger National Park, Private Bag X402, Skukuza 1350, South Africa (5)Biological and Conservation Sciences, Westville Campus, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X54001, Durban 4000, South Africa (6)Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, PO BOX 661, Arusha, Tanzania Article History: Received 19 September 2008; accepted 16 February 2009Handling Editor: Jonathan Newman Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: corwaal@gmail.com

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01488.x Byline: Leif Kullman (1), Lisa Oberg (2) Keywords: Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii; climate change; monitoring; Picea abies; Pinus sylvestris; Swedish Scandes; tree line advance Abstract: Summary Elevational tree line change in the southern Swedish Scandes was quantified for the period 1915-2007 and for two sub-periods 1915-1975 and 1975-2007. The study focused on Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris at a large number of sites distributed over an 8000-km.sup.2 area. The basic approach included revisitations of fixed sites (elevational belt transects) and measurements of tree line positions (m a.s.l.) during these three periods. Over the past century, tree lines of all species rose at 95% of the studied localities, with means of 70-90 m. All three species displayed maximum upshifts by about 200 m, which manifests a near-perfect equilibrium with instrumentally recorded air temperature change. This magnitude of response was realized only in particular topographic situations, foremost wind-sheltered and steep concave slopes. Other sites, with more wind-exposed topoclimatic conditions, experienced lesser magnitudes of upshifts. Thus, spatial elevational tree line responses to climate change are markedly heterogeneous and site-dependent. Modelling of the future evolution of the forest-alpine tundra transition has to consider this fact. Even in a hypothetical case of substantial climate warming, tree lines are unlikely to advance on a broad front and a large proportion of the alpine tundra will remain treeless. During the period 1975-2007, the tree lines of Picea and Pinus (in particular) advanced more rapidly than that of Betula towards the alpine region. These species-specific responses could signal a potential trajectory for the evolution of the ecotone in a warmer future. Thereby a situation with some resemblance with the relatively warm and dry early Holocene would emerge. Substantial tree line upshifts over the past two to three decades coincide with air and soil warming during all seasons. This implies that both summer and winter temperatures have to be included in models of climate-driven tree line performance. Synthesis. Maximum tree line rise by 200 m represents a unique trend break in the long-term Holocene tree line regression, which has been driven by average climate cooling for nearly 10 000 years. Tree line positions are well-restored to their pre-Little Ice Age positions. Recent tree line ascent is a truly anomalous event in Holocene vegetation history and possibly unprecedented for seven millennia. Author Affiliation: (1)Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umea University, SE-901 87 Umea, Sweden (2)Department of Natural Sciences, Mid Sweden University, SE-851 70 Sundsvall, Sweden Article History: Received 26 September 2008; accepted 27 January 2009Handling Editor: Richard Bradshaw Article note: (*) Correspondence author: leif.kullman@emg.umu.se

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17308.x Byline: Sue Lewis, David A. Elston, Francis Daunt, Barbara Cheney, Paul M. Thompson Abstract: There is growing concern over the impacts of climate change on animal species. Many studies have demonstrated impacts of climate change at the population level, and density dependent effects of climate are frequently reported. However, there is an increasing recognition of the differential impact of such factors on individuals since there is marked variation in individual performance. We investigated the relationships between breeding success and environmental conditions (winter NAO and one year lagged winter NAO) and intrinsic effects (colony size, pair bond duration, past breeding success rate) in the northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis, using data from a long-term study commenced in 1950. There was a negative trend in breeding success over time, and a negative relationship with winter NAO and lagged winter NAO, which themselves had shown positive increases over the study period. The effects of lagged winter NAO remained after accounting for the linear trend. There was no evidence of density dependence, with breeding success positively related to colony size. We found strong evidence that breeding success was negatively related to pair bond duration but positively related to past breeding success rate. There was also an interaction between these two intrinsic effects such that those pairs that had historically been successful maintained success with increasing pair bond duration, whereas less successful pairs showed a decline. The prediction that there would be a differential impact of extrinsic factors among pairs was supported by an interaction between past breeding success rate and winter NAO, such that pairs with low past success rate exhibited a sharp decline in breeding success with increasing winter NAO, whereas more successful pairs did not. It is critically important to understand interactions between extrinsic factors and individual heterogeneity since a differential impact on individuals will affect population structure, and hence population dynamics. Article History: Manuscript Accepted 3 November 2008 Article note: S. Lewis (sue.lewis@ed.ac.uk), School of Biological Sciences, Univ. of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK, and Inst. for Evolutionary Biology, Univ. of Edinburgh, Kings Buildings, Ashworth Labs, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JT, UK and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Hill of Brathens, Banchory, Aberdeenshire, AB31 4BW, UK. - D. A. Elston, Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Macaulay Inst., Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK. - F. Daunt, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK. - B. Cheney and P. M. Thompson, School of Biological Sciences, Univ. of Aberdeen, Lighthouse Field Station, Cromarty, IV11 8YJ, UK.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01096.x Keywords: biofuel plantation; compensation point; oil-palm plantation biodiversity; oil-palm plantation emission; palm-oil production impact; peatland conversion; plantation development Abstract: Abstract: The growing demand for biofuels is promoting the expansion of a number of agricultural commodities, including oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). Oil-palm plantations cover over 13 million ha, primarily in Southeast Asia, where they have directly or indirectly replaced tropical rainforest. We explored the impact of the spread of oil-palm plantations on greenhouse gas emission and biodiversity. We assessed changes in carbon stocks with changing land use and compared this with the amount of fossil-fuel carbon emission avoided through its replacement by biofuel carbon. We estimated it would take between 75 and 93 years for the carbon emissions saved through use of biofuel to compensate for the carbon lost through forest conversion, depending on how the forest was cleared. If the original habitat was peatland, carbon balance would take more than 600 years. Conversely, planting oil palms on degraded grassland would lead to a net removal of carbon within 10 years. These estimates have associated uncertainty, but their magnitude and relative proportions seem credible. We carried out a meta-analysis of published faunal studies that compared forest with oil palm. We found that plantations supported species-poor communities containing few forest species. Because no published data on flora were available, we present results from our sampling of plants in oil palm and forest plots in Indonesia. Although the species richness of pteridophytes was higher in plantations, they held few forest species. Trees, lianas, epiphytic orchids, and indigenous palms were wholly absent from oil-palm plantations. The majority of individual plants and animals in oil-palm plantations belonged to a small number of generalist species of low conservation concern. As countries strive to meet obligations to reduce carbon emissions under one international agreement (Kyoto Protocol), they may not only fail to meet their obligations under another (Convention on Biological Diversity) but may actually hasten global climate change. Reducing deforestation is likely to represent a more effective climate-change mitigation strategy than converting forest for biofuel production, and it may help nations meet their international commitments to reduce biodiversity loss. Abstract (Spanish): Plantaciones de Biocombustible en Terrenos Boscosos: Doble Peligro para la Biodiversidad y el Clima Resumen: La creciente demanda de biocombustibles esta promoviendo la expansion de activos agricolas, incluyendo la palma de aceite (Elaeis guineensis). Las plantaciones de palma de aceite cubren mas de 13 millones de ha, principalmente en el sureste de Asia, donde han reemplazado a bosques tropicales directa o indirectamente. Exploramos el impacto de la expansion de las plantaciones de palma de aceite sobre la emision de gases de invernadero y la biodiversidad. Evaluamos los cambios en las reservas de carbono con el cambio de uso de suelo y comparamos esto con la cantidad de emisiones de carbono de combustibles fosiles que se evitarian con su reemplazo por carbono de biocombustibles. Estimamos que pasarian entre 75 y 93 anos para que las emisiones de carbono ahorradas por el uso de biocombustible compensen el carbono perdido por la conversion de bosques, dependiendo de como fue removido el bosque. Si el habitat original era turbera, el balance de carbono tardaria mas de 600 anos, Por el contrario, sembrando las plantaciones de palma en pastizales degradados llevaria a una remocion de carbono en 10 anos. Estas estimaciones estan asociadas con incertidumbre, pero su magnitud y proporciones relativas parecen creibles. Realizamos un meta analisis de los estudios de fauna publicados que comparan bosques con palma de aceite. Encontramos que las plantaciones soportan comunidades de baja riqueza con pocas especies de bosque. Debido a que no se dispuso de datos de flora publicados, presentamos los resultados de nuestro muestreo de plantas en parcelas de palma de aceite y de bosque en Indonesia. Aunque la riqueza de especies de pteridofitas fue mayor en las plantaciones, contenian pocas especies de bosque. Arboles, lianas, orquideas epifitas y palmas nativas estuvieron totalmente ausentes de las plantaciones de palma de aceite. La mayoria de plantas y animales individuales en las plantaciones de palma de aceite pertenecian a un pequeno numero de especies generalistas de bajo interes para la conservacion. A medida que los paises pugnan por cumplir las obligaciones de reduccion de emisiones de carbono en el marco de un acuerdo internacional (Protocolo de Kioto), no solo pueden fallar en cumplir sus obligaciones en el marco de otro (Convencion de Diversidad Biologica) sino que incluso pueden acelerar el cambio climatico. La reduccion de la deforestacion probablemente represente una estrategia mas efectiva para la mitigacion del cambio climatico que la conversion de bosques para la produccion de biocombustibles, y puede ayudar a que las naciones cumplan sus compromisos internacionales para la reduccion de la perdida de biodiversidad. Author Affiliation: (*)NORDECO, Skindergade 23-III, Copenhagen DK-1159, Denmark, emailfd@nordeco.dk ([dagger])University of Groningen, P. O. Box 14, 9750 AA Haren, Netherlands ([double dagger])Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom (s.)World Wildlife Fund USA, 1250 24th Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20090-7180, U.S.A. (**)Global Environment Centre, 2nd Floor, Wisma Hing, 78, Jalan SS2/72, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia ([dagger][dagger])Institute for Environmental Sciences, University Koblenz-Landau, Fortstra[sz]e 7, D-76829 Landau, Germany ([double dagger][double dagger])RSPB, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom (s.s.)CIFOR, P.O. BOX 6596, JKPWB, Jakarta, Indonesia (***)IBED, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 166, 1018 WV Amsterdam, Netherlands ([dagger][dagger][dagger])Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom ([double dagger][double dagger][double dagger])Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, United Kingdom (s.s.s.)School of Environmental Services, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom Article History: Paper submitted February 4, 2008; revised manuscript accepted August 20, 2008.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2009.01280.x Byline: Mathew Humphrey (1) Abstract: Abstract Do western publics make 'demands' for environmental policy that they have no desire to see enacted? The thesis that they do has been put forward recently by advocates of the 'post-ecologist' paradigm such as Ingolfur Bluhdorn. Taking the example of climate change, this article assesses survey results that provide indicative evidence that such 'simulative' demands may exist. I suggest that such demands are, however, best explained through conceptual tools available from game-theoretic and rational-actor models of political behaviour, in particular rational ignorance and rational irrationality, rather than with the societal-level accounts preferred by Bluhdorn and others.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2008.01472.x Keywords: bryophyte; climate change; functional type; gradient; lichen; peatland; scale; Subarctic; vascular plant; warming experiment Abstract: Summary Changing temperature regimes and precipitation patterns in the Subarctic will impact on vegetation composition and diversity including those of bryophyte and lichen communities, which are major drivers of high-latitude carbon and nutrient cycling and hydrology. We investigated the relative importance of such impacts at different temporal, spatial and plant functional scales in subarctic Sphagnum fuscum-dominated peatlands, comprising both an in situ warming experiment and natural climatic and topographic gradients in northern Sweden and Norway. We applied multivariate analyses to investigate the relationships among cryptogam and vascular plant species composition and abiotic (temperature, moisture) and biotic (Sphagnum growth) regimes at various scales. At the short-term temporal scale (4-year warming experiment), increased temperature yielded no clear effect on cryptogam or vascular plant species composition. Spatially, direct effects of temperature were decisive for overall species composition across regions (macro-scale) rather than within one region (meso-scale). Moisture and Sphagnum growth were drivers of species composition at all spatial scales, and Sphagnum growth itself depended on its position on the microtopographic gradient and on temperature. Grouping of bryophytes and lichens at increasing scales of functional aggregation from species, growth form to the major higher taxon level (Sphagnum, other mosses, liverworts, lichens) revealed mostly increasing correlation with climate regimes and Sphagnum growth. Excluding liverworts from the analysis tended to reduce the correlation. Abundances of lichens, liverworts, non-Sphagnum mosses and (to a lesser degree) vascular plants were negatively related to Sphagnum abundance. Few cryptogam and vascular plant species showed a positive relationship with Sphagnum abundance. Correspondingly, cryptogam species richness and Shannon Index on peatlands strongly declined as Sphagnum abundance increased, while indices for vascular plants showed no significant relationship. Synthesis. Scale, be it spatial or functional, strongly determined which environmental drivers showed the clearest relationships with vegetation composition and diversity. Our findings will help to optimize predictions about long-term effects of climate on peatland vegetation composition, and subsequently its feedbacks to carbon and water cycles, at the regional scale. Author Affiliation: (1)Department of Systems Ecology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands; (2)Department of Botany, Staatliches Museum fur Naturkunde Karlsruhe, Erbprinzenstr. 13, D-76133 Karlsruhe, Germany; (3)Biometris, WUR, NL-6700 AC Wageningen, The Netherlands; and (4)Abisko Scientific Research Station, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-98107 Abisko, Sweden Article History: Received 2 September 2008; accepted 1 December 2008 Handling Editor: Rob Brooker Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: simone.lang@ecology.falw.vu.nl

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2008.17075.x Byline: B. R. Broitman, P. L. Szathmary, K. A. S. Mislan, C. A. Blanchette, B. Helmuth Abstract: Habitat temperature is often assumed to serve as an effective proxy for organism body temperature when making predictions of species distributions under future climate change. However, the determinants of body temperature are complex, and organisms in identical microhabitats can occupy radically different thermal niches. This can have major implications of our understanding of how thermal stress modulates predator-prey relationships under field conditions. Using body temperature data from four different sites on Santa Cruz Island, California, we show that at two sites the body temperatures of a keystone predator (the seastar Pisaster ochraceus) and its prey (the mussel Mytilus californianus) followed very different trajectories, even though both animals occupied identical microhabitats. At the other two sites, body temperatures of predator and prey were closely coupled across a range of scales. The dynamical differences between predator and prey body temperatures depended on the location of pairs of sites, at the extremes of a persistent landscape-scale weather pattern observed across the island. Thus, the well understood predator-prey interaction between Pisaster and Mytilus cannot be predicted based on habitat-level information alone, as is now commonly attempted with landscape-level ('climate envelope') models. Article History: Manuscript Accepted 1 September 2008 Article note: B. R. Broitman (broitman@nceas.ucsb.edu), National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, State St. 735, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA, and Centro de Estudios Avanzados de Zonas Aridas (CEAZA), Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Univ. Catolica del Norte, Larrondo 1281, Coquimbo, Chile. - P. L. Szathmary, K. A. S. Mislan and B. Helmuth, Dept of Biological Sciences, Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA. - C. A. Blanchette, Marine Science Inst., Univ. of California-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01073.x Byline: SHARMILA PATHIKONDA (*), AZMY S. ACKLEH ([dagger]), KARL H. HASENSTEIN (*), SUSAN MOPPER (*[double dagger]) Keywords: clonal plants; exotic species; extinction; habitat disturbance; hurricanes; Iris hexagona; I. pseudacorus; matrix models; population dynamics; species competition Abstract: Abstract: Wetland habitats are besieged by biotic and abiotic disturbances such as invasive species, hurricanes, habitat fragmentation, and salinization. Predicting how these factors will alter local population dynamics and community structure is a monumental challenge. By examining ecologically similar congeners, such as Iris hexagona and I. pseudacorus (which reproduce clonally and sexually and tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions), one can identify life-history traits that are most influential to population growth and viability. We combined empirical data and stage-structured matrix models to investigate the demographic responses of native (I. hexagona) and invasive (I. pseudacorus) plant populations to hurricanes and salinity stress in freshwater and brackish wetlands. In our models I. hexagona and I. pseudacorus responded differently to salinity stress, and species coexistence was rare. In 82% of computer simulations of freshwater marsh, invasive iris populations excluded the native species within 50 years, whereas native populations excluded the invasive species in 99% of the simulations in brackish marsh. The occurrence of hurricanes allowed the species to coexist, and species persistence was determined by the length of time it took the ecosystem to recover. Rapid recovery (2 years) favored the invasive species, whereas gradual recovery (30 years) favored the native species. Little is known about the effects of hurricanes on competitive interactions between native and invasive plant species in marsh ecosystems. Our models contribute new insight into the relationship between environmental disturbance and invasion and demonstrate how influential abiotic factors such as climate change will be in determining interspecific interactions. Abstract (Spanish): Invasion, Perturbacion y Competencia: Modelando el Destino de Poblaciones de Plantas Costeras Resumen: Los habitats de humedales estan acosados por perturbaciones bioticas y abioticas como las especies invasoras, huracanes, fragmentacion de habitat y salinizacion. La prediccion de como estos factores alteraran la dinamica poblacional y la estructura de la comunidad es un reto monumental. Mediante el examen de congeneres similares ecologicamente, como Iris hexagona e I. pseudacorus (que se reproducen por clones y sexualmente y toleran un amplio rango de condiciones ambientales), se pueden identificar caracteristicas de la historia de vida que son mas influyentes en el crecimiento y la viabilidad poblacional. Combinamos datos empiricos y modelos matriciales estructurados por estadios para investigar las respuestas de las poblaciones de plantas nativas (I. hexagona) e invasoras (I. pseudacorus) a huracanes y estres por salinidad en humedales de agua dulce y salobre. En nuestros modelos, I. hexagona e I. pseudacorus, respondieron de manera diferente al estres por salinidad y la coexistencia de las especies fue rara. En 82% de las simulaciones en computadora del humedal dulceacuicola, las poblaciones invasoras excluyeron a las especies nativas en un plazo de 50 anos, mientras que las poblaciones nativas excluyeron a la especie invasora en 99% de las simulaciones de humedal salobre. La ocurrencia de huracanes permitio la coexistencia de las especies, y la persistencia de las especies estaba determinada por el tiempo que tomaba la recuperacion del ecosistema. La recuperacion rapida (2 anos) favorecio a la especie invasora, mientras que la recuperacion gradual (30 anos) favorecio a la especie nativa. Se sabe poco sobre los efectos de los huracanes sobre las interacciones competitivas entre especies de plantas nativas e invasoras en ecosistemas de marisma. Nuestros modelos aportan una nueva perspectiva de las relaciones entre la perturbacion ambiental y las invasiones y demuestran la influencia de factores abioticos, como el cambio climatico, en la determinacion de interacciones interespecificas. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Biology, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA 70504, U.S.A. ([dagger])Department of Mathematics, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA 70504, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted December 31, 2007; revised manuscript accepted May 15, 2008. Article note: ([double dagger]) Address correspondence to S. Mopper, email mop@louisiana.edu

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01039.x Byline: ADAM H. FREEDMAN (*[dagger]**), WOLFGANG BUERMANN ([dagger]), MATTHEW LEBRETON ([double dagger]s.), LAURENT CHIRIO ([double dagger][paragraph]), THOMAS B. SMITH (*[dagger]) Keywords: climate change; habitat fragmentation; invasion; rainforest; snakes; species-distribution modeling Abstract: Abstract: We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainforest by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus), olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus), and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus). Models with contemporary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited availability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems. Abstract (Spanish): Modelado de los Efectos del Cambio Antropogenico de Habitat sobre las Invasiones de Serpientes de la Sabana al Bosque Lluvioso Africano Resumen: Utilizamos un metodo de modelado de la distribucion de especies, conjuntos de datos climaticos y datos de percepcion remota de la vegetacion recientemente disponibles de los sensores MODIS y Quick Scatterometer para investigar los efectos combinados de las alteraciones del habitat y del clima causadas por humanos sobre invasiones potenciales de la selva lluviosa por tres especies de serpientes de sabana en Camerun, Africa Central: Causus maculatus, Dromophis lineatus y Lamprophis fuliginosus. Los modelos con variables climaticas y localidades contemporaneas de habitats de sabana nativa mostraron que el clima actual en el bosque lluvioso no perturbado no era adecuado para ninguna de las especies de serpiente debido a la elevada precipitacion. La disponibilidad limitada de sitios de nidacion termicamente adecuados y la incompatibilidad entre eventos importantes de la historia de vida y la disponibilidad de presas son una explicacion probable de la exclusion pronosticada. Los modelos solo con variables de vegetacion y localidades de sabana derivadas de MODIS pronosticaron la invasion de areas perturbadas dentro de la zona de bosque lluvioso, lo cual sugiere que la remocion de la cobertura de bosque por humanos crea microhabitats adecuados que facilitan invasiones del bosque lluvioso. Los modelos con una combinacion de clima contemporaneo, variables de vegetacion y localidades de bosque y sabana derivados de MODIS y Quick Scatterometer pronosticaron una invasion extensiva del bosque lluvioso causado por la perdida de bosque lluvioso. En contraste, una proyeccion de las especies-clima actuales envuelta en clima futuro sugirio una reduccion en el potencial de invasion dentro del la zona de bosque lluvioso como una consecuencia de los incrementos de precipitacion pronosticados. Estos resultados enfatizan que las respuestas combinadas de la deforestacion y el cambio climatico probablemente seran complejas en los sistemas de bosque lluvioso tropical. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, UCLA, 621 Charles E. Young Drive South, Los Angeles, CA 90095, U.S.A. ([dagger])Center for Tropical Research, Institute of the Environment, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, U.S.A. ([double dagger])Projet CAMHERP, Cameroon Biodiversity Conservation Society, BP 3055 Messa, Yaounde, Cameroon (s.)Johns Hopkins Cameroon Program, BP 7039, Yaounde, Cameroon ([paragraph])Museum National d' Histoire Naturelle, Departement Systematique et Evolution (Reptiles), Case Courrier 30, 25 Rue Cuvier, F-75005 Paris, France Article History: Paper submitted May 15, 2007; revised manuscript accepted May 18, 2008. Article note: (**) email afreedma@ucla.edu

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2008.17025.x Byline: Karen Mustin, Tim G. Benton, Calvin Dytham, Justin M. J. Travis Abstract: Predicted future climate change will alter species' distributions as they attempt to track the most suitable 'climate window'. Climate envelope models indicate the direction of likely range changes but do not incorporate population dynamics, therefore observed responses may differ greatly from these projections. We use simulation modelling to explore the consequences of a period of environmental change for a species structured across an environmental gradient. Results indicate that a species' range may lag behind its climate envelope and demonstrate that the rate of movement of a range can accelerate during a period of climate change. We conclude that the inclusion of both population dynamics and spatial environmental variability is vital to develop models that can both predict, and be used to manage, the impact of changing climate on species' biogeography. Article History: Manuscript Accepted 21 July 2008 Article note: K. Mustin (karen_mustin@abdn.ac.uk) and J. M. J. Travis, School of Biological Sciences, Univ. of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK. - T. G. Benton, Inst. of Integrative and Comparative Biology, Univ. of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK. - C. Dytham, Plant Ecology and Conservation, Inst. of Biology and Biochemistry, Maulbeerallee 2, Univ. of Potsdam, DE-14469 Potsdam, Germany. CD also at: Dept of Biology, Univ. of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5YW, UK.

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-5871.2008.00537.x Byline: ROBERT G.V. BAKER (1) Keywords: Southern Oscillation Index; sunspot cycle; Hale Cycle; Gleissberg charting; rainfall patterns; drought prediction; climate change Abstract: Abstract There is growing interest in the role that the Sun's magnetic field has on weather and climatic parameters, particularly the ~11 year sunspot (Schwab) cycle, the ~22 yr magnetic field (Hale) cycle and the ~88 yr (Gleissberg) cycle. These cycles and the derivative harmonics are part of the peculiar periodic behaviour of the solar magnetic field. Using data from 1876 to the present, the exploratory analysis suggests that when the Sun's South Pole is positive in the Hale Cycle, the likelihood of strongly positive and negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values increase after certain phases in the cyclic ~22 yr solar magnetic field. The SOI is also shown to track the pairing of sunspot cycles in ~88 yr periods. This coupling of odd cycles, 23-15, 21-13 and 19-11, produces an apparently close charting in positive and negative SOI fluctuations for each grouping. This Gleissberg effect is also apparent for the southern hemisphere rainfall anomaly. Over the last decade, the SOI and rainfall fluctuations have been tracking similar values to that recorded in Cycle 15 (1914-1924). This discovery has important implications for future drought predictions in Australia and in countries in the northern and southern hemispheres which have been shown to be influenced by the sunspot cycle. Further, it provides a benchmark for long-term SOI behaviour. Author Affiliation: (1)Division of Geography and Planning, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia. Email:rbaker1@une.edu.au Article History: Received 16 July 2007; Revised 10 January 2008; Accepted 11 July 2008

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2008.16814.x Byline: L. Gomez-Aparicio, I. M. Perez-Ramos, I. Mendoza, L. Matias, J. L. Quero, J. Castro, R. Zamora, T. Maranon Abstract: Understanding seedling performance across resource gradients is crucial for defining the regeneration niche of plant species under current environmental conditions and for predicting potential changes under a global change scenario. A 2-year field experiment was conducted to determine how seedling survival and growth of two evergreen and two deciduous Quercus species vary along gradients of light and soil properties in two Mediterranean forests with contrasting soils and climatic conditions. Half the seedlings were subjected to an irrigation treatment during the first year to quantify the effects on performance of an alteration in the summer drought intensity. Linear and non-linear models were parameterized and compared to identify major resources controlling seedling performance. We found both site-specific and general patterns of regeneration. Strong site-specificity was found in the identity of the best predictors of seedling survival: survival decreased linearly with increasing light (i.e. increasing desiccation risk) in the drier site, whereas it decreased logistically with increasing spring soil water content (i.e. increasing waterlogging risk) in the wetter site. We found strong empirical support for multiple resource limitation at the drier site, the response to light being modulated by the availability of soil resources (water and P). Evidence for regeneration niche partitioning among Quercus species was only found at the wetter site. However, at both sites Quercus species shared the same response to summer drought alleviation through water addition: increased first-year survival but not final survival (i.e. after two years). This suggests that extremely dry summers (i.e. the second summer in the experiment) can cancel out the positive effects of previous wetter summers. Therefore, an increase in the intensity and frequency of summer drought with climate change might cause a double negative impact on Quercus regeneration, due to a general reduction in survival probability and the annulment of the positive effects of (infrequent) 'wet' years. Overall, results presented in this study are a major step towards the development of a mechanistic model of Mediterranean forest dynamics that incorporates the idiosyncrasies and generalities of tree regeneration in these systems, and that allow simulation and prediction of the ecological consequences of resource level alterations due to global change. Article History: Manuscript Accepted 20 May 2008 Article note: L. Gomez-Aparicio (lorenag@irnase.csic.es), I. M. Perez-Ramos and T. Maranon, Inst. de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiologia (IRNAS, CSIC), PO Box 1052, ES-41080 Seville, Spain.-I. Mendoza, L. Matias, J. L. Quero, J. Castro and R. Zamora, Depto de Ecologia, Facultad de Ciencias, Univ. de Granada, ES-18071 Granada, Spain.