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Interannual variability in precipitation has increased globally as climate warming intensifies. The increased variability impacts both terrestrial plant production and carbon (C) sequestration. However, mechanisms driving these changes are largely unknown. Here, we examined mechanisms underlying the response of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to interannual precipitation variability in global drylands with mean annual precipitation (MAP)

Shifts in dominance and species reordering can occur in response to global change. However, it is not clear how altered precipitation and disturbance regimes interact to affect species composition and dominance.We explored community‐level diversity and compositional similarity responses, both across and within years, to a manipulated precipitation gradient and annual clipping in a mixed‐grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA. We imposed seven precipitation treatments (five water exclusion levels [−20%, −40%, −60%, −80%, and −100%], water addition [+50%], and control [0% change in precipitation]) year‐round from 2016 to 2018 using fixed interception shelters. These treatments were crossed with annual clipping to mimic hay harvest.We found that community‐level responses were influenced by precipitation across time. For instance, plant evenness was enhanced by extreme drought treatments, while plant richness was marginally promoted under increased precipitation.Clipping promoted species gain resulting in greater richness within each experimental year. Across years, clipping effects further reduced the precipitation effects on community‐level responses (richness and evenness) at both extreme drought and added precipitation treatments. Synthesis: Our results highlight the importance of studying interactive drivers of change both within versus across time. For instance, clipping attenuated community‐level responses to a gradient in precipitation, suggesting that management could buffer community‐level responses to drought. However, precipitation effects were mild and likely to accentuate over time to produce further community change., Shifts in dominance and species reordering can occur in response to global change. We manipulated an experimental precipitation gradient combined with clipping in a temperate mixed‐grass prairie to examine how both treatments can shape plant communities. We found that initial shifts in abundance were detected by examining species‐ to community‐level changes over time; drought increased evenness and this was related to the decline of the dominant species and increase in subdominants, while mesic conditions mildly promoted plant richness.

Responses of grassland carbon (C) cycling to climate change and land use remain a major uncertainty in model prediction of future climate. To explore the impacts of global change on ecosystem C fluxes and the consequent changes in C storage, we have conducted a field experiment with warming (+3 °C), altered precipitation (doubled and halved), and annual clipping at the end of growing seasons in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA, from 2009 to 2013. Results showed that although ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary production (GPP) negatively responded to warming, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) did not significantly change under warming. Doubled precipitation stimulated and halved precipitation suppressed ER and GPP equivalently, with the net outcome being unchanged in NEE. These results indicate that warming and altered precipitation do not necessarily have profound impacts on ecosystem C storage. In addition, we found that clipping enhanced NEE due to a stronger positive response of GPP compared to ER, indicating that clipping could potentially be an effective land practice that could increase C storage. No significant interactions between warming, altered precipitation, and clipping were observed. Meanwhile, we found that belowground net primary production (BNPP) in general was sensitive to climate change and land use though no significant changes were found in NPP across treatments. Moreover, negative correlations of the ER/GPP ratio with soil temperature and moisture did not differ across treatments, highlighting the roles of abiotic factors in mediating ecosystem C fluxes in this grassland. Importantly, our results suggest that belowground C cycling (e.g., BNPP) could respond to climate change with no alterations in ecosystem C storage in the same period.

Long‐term, slow ecological processes such as changes in plant community structure and composition strongly regulate ecosystem responses to climate change. Shifts in plant community are expected in chronically altered environments under warming. However, experimental evidence for long‐term shifts and the associated mechanisms is still scarce in temperate grasslands. Here, we explore the long‐term responses of a prairie plant community to 14‐year (2000–2013) manipulations of climate warming and clipping in Oklahoma, USA. Infrared heaters were used to elevate soil temperature by about 2 °C all year round, and annual clipping was applied to mimic hay harvest. Community composition was resistant to experimental warming in the first seven years, but started to show responses starting from the eighth year; clipping consistently affected community composition over the years. Compositional change under long‐term warming was mainly due to one invasive species and three dominant species. The negative correlations in relative abundance between the invasive species and the dominant species suggest interspecific competition. Community structure (i.e. richness, evenness and diversity) had no overall response to experimental warming. However, in 2007, the extreme wet year, warming reduced species richness by 30%. Clipping promoted species richness by 10% on average over the 14 years but decreased community evenness. Warming did not interact with clipping in influencing the plant community variables. Synthesis. Our study provides experimental evidence for long‐term shifts in plant community composition due to warming and revealed novel mechanisms (i.e. species invasion and associated biotic interactions) underlying the long‐term shift. The results also suggest that climate extremes may elicit or advance community responses to climate warming. The findings highlight that long‐term climate change experiments are essential to reveal potential shifts in community composition.

Climate warming affects ecosystem functioning by altering the rates of carbon (C) fixation and release. Modeling warming effect on terrestrial C cycling is critical given the feedbacks between climate and C cycling. However, the effect of warming on key model parameters and the resulting long-term C dynamics has not been carefully examined. In this study, measurements from a nine-year warming experimental site in a tallgrass prairie were assimilated into a terrestrial ecosystem C cycle model to assess warming effect on key model parameters and to quantify uncertainties of long-term C projection. Warming decreased allocation of gross primary production (GPP) to shoot, and turnover rate of the live C pools (i.e., shoot and root C), but increased the turnover rates of litter and fast soil C pools. Consequently, warming increased live C pools, but decreased litter and soil C pools, and overall decreased total ecosystem C in a 90-year model projection. Information content gained from assimilated datasets was m...