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How can strategic decision-making be reinforced through reliable forecasts of technological change? Observations of strategic forecasts have shown that they mainly rely upon expert opinions. To turn these opinions into consistent knowledge about the future, we need to manage cognitive biases using provable models. Observed forecasting methods provide useful tools for exploiting expert knowledge and data, but management of cognitive bias remains underdeveloped. To improve the situation with cognitive biases in technology forecasting, the Researching Future method (RFm) offers a mixed methods approach. This article introduces RFm, a method that combines a problem-based approach and a logistic function, unified by an applied resources paradigm. A practical case study is described to illustrate and validate RFm, and the results, limitations, and perspectives of RFm are then examined. The article contributes to the technology forecasting methodology and is of interest to copper mining technology R&D specialists, among others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acquired Brain Injury (ABI), an important cause of long-term disability, is associated with increased rates of depression in addition to common cognitive and physical consequences. Past research has linked post-ABI depression to injury severity (e.g., extent of physical or cognitive impairment) and premorbid mood problems. In the general (non-ABI) population, depression is associated with cognitive vulnerabilities that have informed the development of psychological interventions. In this observational study in a heterogeneous sample of individuals with chronic stage ABI, we examine two cognitive vulnerabilities – dysfunctional attitudes (DAs) and autobiographical memory specificity – and explore whether these are linked to depression symptoms and ongoing cognitive difficulties as in the general population. Compared to control participants, individuals with an ABI demonstrated increased endorsement of DAs and reduced specificity of autobiographical memory recall. Within the ABI group, cognitive vulnerability–depression symptom correlations were detected for an explicit measure of DAs, but not for a more implicit DA measure or for autobiographical memory specificity. While individual differences in injury severity and other factors likely obscured subtle relationships between mood and cognitive vulnerabilities, evidence of these vulnerabilities may be relevant to changes in identity and psychological interventions that target low mood in ABI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-making processes are vulnerable to cognitive biases like hindsight bias, with particularly fateful consequences in forensic contexts. However, while debiasing strategies have been effective in various areas, their impact in forensics is underexplored. We investigated hindsight bias and a simple awareness-based debiasing strategy in novices (n = 52) and forensic professionals (n = 49). Participants were assigned to baseline, biased, or debiased conditions and rated an offender’s risk of re-offending using case vignettes. Significant hindsight bias was found in novices, but not experts who were also more aware of biases. Debiasing proved effective in novices, indicating that raising awareness may enhance equitable forensic decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposing learners to sustainability-related topics can present affective–motivational challenges for learners, which may prompt cognitive bias. Cognitive bias directly influences how individuals perceive and process sustainability-related information, thereby also influencing sustainability-related behaviour and decision-making. Therefore, cognitive bias may also present a significant obstacle to the purposes of Environmental and Sustainability Education. Notwithstanding its potential relevance, there is no comprehensive understanding of how cognitive bias is currently addressed in Environmental and Sustainability Education. This review scopes scientific literature that addresses cognitive bias in Environmental and Sustainability education, based on SCOPUS, Web of Science and ERIC. We identified 21 articles that matched our search criteria. We identified four superordinate categories of cognitive bias that were addressed in the literature, including bounded rationality, confirmation bias, self-enhancement and ambiguity aversion. Moreover, we distinguished three perspectives from which cognitive bias is discussed in the literature: (i) education to mitigate bias associated with sustainability-related matters, (ii) bias as a barrier to Environmental and Sustainability Education and (iii) bias at the research-paradigm level. The list of identified biases provides evidence that cognitive bias may play an important role in Environmental and Sustainability Education scholarship and practices, which suggests that more research on this topic is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much discrimination works through exclusion. Poor access to public goods disadvantages minority individuals before they reach the job market. Market impediments to competition cannot explain exclusionary discrimination, and the question is, what can? This paper draws on two different nonmarket theories of discrimination, 'discriminatory equilibrium' and 'stratification economics', to address the question. In one, group cognitive biases are (re)generated by the tenor of inter-group interaction, while in the other the majority finds exclusionary discrimination remunerative given its asymmetric power. This paper models these views as different types of bad equilibria. In a couple, Pareto-improving policy interventions are possible as the problem arises from bad intra-group coordination within, respectively, the minority and the majority. Yet, in a third, the majority is in a payoff-dominant strategy game when discrimination pays off irrespective of coordination dynamics. The mitigation of discrimination in this case is more political than a policy problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this note, we discuss two specific cognitive biases towards closure property as a learning obstacle in school mathematics in the context of number sets. These biases are related to rational and irrational numbers, two important and challenging issues from an educational point of view. The first bias concerns incorrect application of rules and properties of closure property in rational numbers to irrational numbers, and the second deals with the improper generalisation of the closure property in finite states to infinite states. These biases indicate the importance of teaching and learning the closure property. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Legal psychologists' assessments can have a major impact on the fact finder's evaluation of evidence and, consequently, perceptions of guilt. Yet, in the few studies about legal psychologists' assessments and reports, great variability was found. As is the case with other forensic expert domains, legal psychologists are prone to cognitive biases, such as being adversely affected by irrelevant contextual information, confirmation bias, and allegiance bias. Based on the scientific literature, we propose several ways in which legal psychologists can minimize cognitive biases in their assessments, most notably the alternative scenario method. Furthermore, we propose guidelines for expert witnesses in the legal psychological domain, designed to make reports as scientifically grounded, applicable, readable, transparent, and bias-free as possible. We hope that the guidelines will enhance the quality of expert witness testimony provided by legal psychologists around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study looks at how decisions are made during early-stage innovation, specifically how managers, teams, or team leaders formulate problems on which to focus. Problem formulation processes put organisations on paths that incur sunk costs and influence subsequent problem solving and innovation outcomes. Varying human biases may impair these processes. Therefore, factors that have the potential to mitigate biases play a key role in determining problem formulation performance. This exploratory study looks at one of these factors by examining the role of awareness of bias. It offers theoretical insight into and examines empirically the relationships between bias awareness and bias intensity, as well as between bias intensity and problem formulation performance. Using the problem as the unit of analysis, and examining original survey datasets gathered from the US, China, and Finland, we find that two bias types are particularly prone to influence strategic problem formulation: Solution jumping as a cognitive bias and dominance as a motivational bias show negative relationships with problem formulation performance. We also find that unlike other biases, dominance bias appears unaffected by the degree of bias awareness. The insights from our study shed light on how formulating novel problems is subject to the influence of cognitive, motivational, and informational biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bias in clinical reasoning has been identified as one of the main sources of diagnostic errors. Clinical Decision Support Systems that suggest possible diagnoses and provide information to mitigate cognitive bias could support physicians in finding a less biased diagnosis. We examine the influence of confidence and experience on the probability to adjust the decision after receiving decision aid and whether forming a first opinion beforehand or immediately receiving decision support makes a difference. 103 physicians and medical students participated in an online experiment built on decision tasks formulated to trigger availability and representativeness bias. The analysis showed that the presentation of prevalence data to mitigate availability bias changed the final probability estimate of the diagnosis significantly. Prototypical data to counteract representativeness bias showed no significant change. Medical experience, confidence in the decision, and timing of support had no significant influence on the probability to change the estimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractHealthcare educators are exploring ways to integrate Large Language Models (LLMs) into the curriculum. At the same time, they are concerned about the negative impact on students’ cognitive development. There is concern that the students will not learn to think and problem-solve by themselves and instead become dependent on LLMs to find answers. In addition, the students could start accepting the LLM generated responses at face value. The Illusion of Explanatory Depth (IoED) is a cognitive bias where humans believe they understand complex phenomena in more depth than they do. This illusion is caused when people rely on external sources of information rather than deeper levels of internalized knowledge. This illusion can be exposed by asking follow-up in depth questions. Using the same approach, specifically iterative prompting, can help students interact with LLM’s while learning actively, gaining deeper levels of knowledge, and exposing the LLM shortcomings. The article proposes that educators encourage use of LLMs to complete assignments using a template, that promotes students’ reflections on their interactions with LLMs, using iterative prompting. This process based on IoED, and iterative prompting will help educators integrate LLMs in the curriculum while mitigating the risk of students becoming dependent on these tools. Students will practice active learning and experience firsthand the inaccuracies and inconsistencies in LLM responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Each year, adverse events are reported in healthcare, of which many relate to healthcare workforce cognitive bias. The active involvement of workforce and consumers in the review and co-design of effective training for the healthcare workforce to recognise, monitor, and manage unconscious bias is required. We used participatory action research to co-design an innovative, interprofessional simulation based on 'real world' clinical incidents and lived experiences to improve the delivery of safe, high quality, consumer-focused healthcare. Following ethics approval, content analysis of serious adverse patient safety events involving cognitive bias was conducted. These data informed audio-recorded interviews with the healthcare workforce and consumers to explore their experiences of cognitive bias. Following thematic analysis, key themes of communication, stigma, diagnostic overshadowing, and fragmented systems were uncovered. Guided by consumers, these themes were interwoven into a simulation scenario that included real places, stories, and verbatim quotes delivered through mixed media artefacts. This heightened the immersive and experiential learning that aimed to uncover unconscious bias and help learners recognise its impact on clinical decisions and practice. To our knowledge, this is the first interprofessional, co-designed simulation to specifically address cognitive bias in current and future healthcare workforce. Plans to translate this research into a practical framework on how to work with key stakeholders (including consumers) to identify 'real-world' health service risks and co-design targeted simulations to address these gaps are described, including lessons learned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cognitive biases reveal underlying affective state by indicating optimism and pessimism. This methodology may permit assessment of positive welfare in animals that have few validated positive welfare indicators, such as bears. Our goal was to validate a judgment bias test for assessing optimism in brown bears, using a touchscreen. After training the bears on a conditional discrimination, we compared responses to an ambiguous stimulus in a 2 × 2 nested design involving four experimental conditions representing presence or absence of a behind-the-scenes tour and presence or absence of a keeper training session with food reinforcement. We recorded bears' behavior during the conditions as a measure of convergent validity. Testing revealed the possibility of pessimism in the absence of reinforcement in one bear. More frustration behaviors were also observed during the no food reinforcement conditions. This is the first experimental demonstration of brown bears using a touchscreen and one of only three reports in which bears have been reported to perform a conditional discrimination. This method of assessing underlying affective state shows promise for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of public policy and governance scholars recognise the importance of learning in supporting adaptive and responsive governance systems. Fostering learning within policy processes and governance systems, however, can be challenging. Collectively, we often ignore or misinterpret relevant policy information, or we may be incapable of translating new information into policy. Despite significant scholarly attention to learning, knowledge of the barriers to learning remains underdeveloped. To advance theoretical insights, this article integrates research on individual cognitive biases with literature on learning to identify barriers that can block learning or lead to non-learning in policy and governance processes. It also explores how these barriers can be mitigated or exacerbated by different governance contexts. Based on these insights, this paper provides guidance for researchers on how to empirically assess learning barriers across different governance contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Light has been demonstrated to influence transient mood states in healthy populations and can be used as a treatment for clinical mood disorders. However, it is still interesting to know whether stimulus with relatively low light levels can moderate the transient mood state of people with depressive tendencies, and what are the effects respectively from light levels and light color. In this study, 10 subjects with depressive tendencies were recruited and screened to receive a typical lighting intervention, including five crossover conditions with the 300 l×-isoluminance groups (red, 6500 K-white, blue) and 6500 K-isospectral groups (50 lx, 300 lx, and 1500 lx). Negative cognitive bias, high-frequency heart rate variability, and subjective emotion were measured at different stages during the lighting intervention. Statistical results demonstrated that the lighting condition of 1500 lx-6500 K was associated with a transient positive mood state (p < 0.001) and had a significant positive moderating effect on the negative cognitive biases compared with the other groups (p =.017). Colored lights are more likely to trigger negative emotions and negative cognitive biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractObjectivesMethodResultsConclusionLoneliness has been associated with psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) in the general population, but the mechanisms underlying this association are poorly understood. Theoretical models, corroborated by empirical findings, signify the key role of biased cognition in both loneliness and psychosis. This study tested whether two cognitive biases – Selective Attention to Threat (ATB) and External Attribution Bias (EAB) – account for the association between loneliness and PLEs.A convenience sample (n = 357) of middle-aged and older adults (aged 40+) was recruited online from the UK population. The parallel mediation model with two the aforementioned cognitive biases as mediators was tested.A mediation effect between loneliness and PLEs via ATB (ab1 = 0.441, 95% CI = [0.264, 0.646]) and EAB (ab2 = 0.354, 95% CI [0.124, 0.627] was established. This model remained significant after controlling for the current symptoms of anxiety and depression.Greater loneliness was associated with a higher rate of PLEs in the sample of middle-aged and older adults. This association was fully explained by ATB and EAB, independent of the current symptoms of anxiety and depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we demonstrate the advantages of combining the detailed military history of actual battles with contemporary decision-making cognitive theories. Specifically, we analyse two battle decisions made in Israeli-Arab wars, and interpret, through a cognitive lens, some of the decisions that were subsequently deemed "incomprehensible" in the civilian and military literature. This perspective permits analysis of multiple processes – such as risk evaluation, mental completion of unknown information, and estimation of enemy response. Moreover, it predicts that even highly experienced commanders are prone to the effect of cognitive biases, and may therefore make bad decisions with disastrous consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although expectations have emerged as a prominent research theme in public administration, little is known about whether and how expectations affect citizen satisfaction. We investigated the anchoring effects of expectations in shaping citizen satisfaction, utilizing a survey experiment involving 735 Chinese citizens. Specifically, we examined (1) the influence of citizens' normative expectations of what services should be on their satisfaction levels; (2) the anchoring effects that result from numerical anchors on expectations and satisfaction; and (3) the effectiveness of debiasing education in mitigating anchoring effects. The findings reveal a negative correlation between citizens' normative expectations and their satisfaction levels, highlighting the influence of anchoring effects on citizens' expectations and satisfaction. Debiasing education is effective in mitigating anchoring effects on expectations but not on satisfaction. These findings integrated cognitive bias into the expectancy disconfirmation model to a better understanding of citizen satisfaction. In this article, the authors focus on investigating the anchoring effects of expectations in shaping levels of citizen satisfaction. To achieve this, the study (1) examined the influence of citizens' normative expectations of what services should be on their satisfaction levels, utilizing a survey experiment involving 735 Chinese citizens; (2) tested the anchoring effects that result from numerical anchors on satisfaction; and (3) employed debiasing education to mitigate anchoring effects on satisfaction. The findings reveal a negative correlation between citizens' normative expectations and their satisfaction levels, highlighting the influence of anchoring effects on citizen satisfaction. Debias education is effective in mitigating bias on expectations but does not equally address issues related to satisfaction levels. These findings contribute to the cross-national generalizability of the expectancy disconfirmation model and citizen satisfaction literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the last half-century, the U.S. and Allied Intelligence Community (IC) has sought to minimize the ostensibly detrimental effects of cognitive biases on intelligence practice. The dominant approach has been to develop structured analytic techniques (SATs), teach them to analysts in brief training sessions, provide the means to use SATs on the job, and hope they work. The SAT approach, however, suffers from severe conceptual problems and a paucity of support from scientific research. For example, a highly promoted SAT—the analysis of competing hypotheses—was shown in several recent studies to either not improve judgment quality or to make it worse. This article recaps the key problems with the SAT approach and sketches some alternative interventions. At the core of these proposals is the idea that intelligence agencies should be focused broadly on improving intelligence and not narrowly on minimizing bias. While the latter contributes to achieving the former, overemphasis on bias minimization could inadvertently bias agencies toward a singular form of intervention, blinding then from potentially more effective interventions. Two lines of alternative intervention are sketched. The first line focuses on postanalytic statistical optimization methods such as recalibration and performance-weighted aggregation of analysts' judgments. The second line focuses on a broad human augmentation program to optimize human cognition through better sleep, exercise, nutrition (including nootropic compounds), and biometric tracking. Both lines of effort would require substantial scientific investment by the IC to examine risks and efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perfectionism can be problematic when your self-worth is dependent on achievements and leads to inflexible standards, cognitive biases, and rigid behaviors. Cognitive behavior therapy for perfectionism is shown to be effective, including for targeting psychiatric symptoms and when delivered via the Internet (iCBT-P). However, few studies have compared it to an active comparator. The current study randomly assigned 138 participants seeking help for perfectionism to iCBT-P or Internet-based Unified Protocol (iUP). Both treatments provided guidance on demand from a therapist and were eight weeks in duration. The results indicated large within-group effects of Cohen's d 2.03 (iCBT) and 2.51 (iUP) on the Clinical Perfectionism Questionnaire at post-treatment, and maintained effects at 6- and 12-month follow-up, but no between-group difference (β = 0.02, SE = 1.04, p =.98). Secondary outcomes of depression, anxiety, quality of life, self-compassion, procrastination, and stress ranged from small to large, with no differences between the conditions. Both treatments were deemed credible, relevant, of high quality, and well-adhered by the participants. Further research needs to be conducted, but the findings could indicate a lack of specificity, perhaps suggesting there is no need to differentiate between different treatments that are transdiagnostic in nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Psoriasis is a chronic disease, involving skin and joints, characterized by inflamed lesions. Psoriasis negatively impacts the patients' quality of life due to the physical, emotional, and social burden that accompanies this condition. Also, psoriasis is associated with a number of psychiatric comorbidities, including sexual dysfunctions. The present study investigates the variables associated with sexual functioning in psoriasis patients. One-hundred-three psoriasis patients and 101 matched control subjects took part in the present study. Each participant completed five self-report measures investigating the presence of depression, anxiety and stress symptoms, body image, quality of life, and sexual experience. Our results show that differences in sexual activity, but not in sexual functioning, emerged between groups. In men with psoriasis, more sexual difficulties were associated with more negative automatic thoughts about sexuality. In women, more sexual difficulties were associated with more negative automatic thoughts; anxiety, depression, and stress; severity of symptoms; comorbid disease; age; quality of life. Our findings expand the current knowledge about sexual functioning in psoriasis and shed light on specific cognitive, psychological, and demographic variables associated with sexual impairment in men and women with psoriasis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moral elevation refers to the positive emotional response resulting from witnessing acts of virtue or moral beauty. While the evidence demonstrates that experiencing elevation has a positive effect on people's prosocial behavior, an intriguing question is whether this emotion also affects social-cognitive processes involved in the perception of others' behavior. The present research aims to study whether this elevation affects the causal attributions people make about the behavior of others. The results of three studies (total N = 267 adults from Spain; 79.03% women) show that a) elevation trait correlates with internal causal attributions about others' behavior, b) experimental manipulation of elevation affects causal attributions about others' behavior, and c) experimental manipulation of elevation can reduce correspondence bias (fundamental attributional error). The results are discussed within the framework of the broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Income poverty is associated with an enhanced tendency to avoid losses in economic decisions, which can be driven by a response bias (risk avoidance) and a valuation bias (loss aversion). However, the impact of non-income dimensions of poverty on these biases remains unclear. The current study tested the impact of material hardship on these biases, and the mediating effects of anxiety, depression, and cognitive control in these associations. Healthy adults (N = 188) completed questionnaire and behavioral measures of the variables. Results of regression-based analyses showed that participants who reported higher material hardship exhibited greater response bias, but not valuation bias. This effect was mediated by anxiety. Although material hardship predicted lower cognitive control, cognitive control did not mediate the association between material hardship and either type of bias. These findings suggest that material hardship may lead to economic decision-making biases because it impacts emotional states rather than cognitive control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In most pairwise comparisons methods such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) it is assumed that pairwise comparisons are reciprocal, since this is a necessary condition for consistent judgments. However, several empirical studies have shown that the condition of reciprocity is not satisfied when dealing with real human preferences, which might be significantly non-reciprocal due to inherent cognitive biases. This empirical evidence indicates that the study of non-reciprocal pairwise comparisons matrices should not be neglected when dealing with real decision-making processes. However, the literature on this topic is scarce and fragmented. The aim of our study is to fill this gap by discussing advantages and disadvantages of using non-reciprocal judgements multiplicative pairwise comparisons (MPCs), reviewing existing literature and introducing a new measure of non-reciprocity with some natural and desirable properties. In addition, we perform Monte Carlo simulations on randomly generated non-reciprocal MPC matrices and provide percentile tables allowing decision makers to decide whether a level of non-reciprocity of a given MPC matrix is acceptable or not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This commentary introduces additive and subtractive transformations as foundational human cognitive biases and proposes possible links to biological reasoning challenges in both novices and experts. These cognitive biases deserve more attention in biology and biology education given possible links to previously documented misconceptions, expert expectations, and student learning challenges. More educational attention (e.g. curriculum cases, pedagogical approaches) directed at subtractive biological transformations could serve as a novel conceptual framework for (i) uniting a series of deeply rooted learning challenges (e.g. ‘great chain of being’, teleological reasoning) and (ii) inducing cognitive dissonance about hard-to-access reasoning processes about the living world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overreporting is a common problem that complicates psychological evaluations. A challenge facing the effective detection of overreporting is that many of the identified strategies (e.g., symptom severity approaches; see Rogers & Bender, 2020) are not incorporated into broadband measures of personality and psychopathology (e.g., Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory family of instruments). While recent efforts have worked to incorporate some of these newer strategies, no such work has been conducted on the MMPI-3. For instance, recent symptom severity approaches have been used to identify patterns of multivariate base rate "skyline" elevations on the BASC, and similar strategies have been adopted into the PAI to measure psychopathology (Multi-Feigning Index; Gaines et al., 2013) and cognitive symptoms (Cognitive Bias Scale of Scales; Boress et al., 2022b). This study used data from a simulation study (n = 318) and an Active-Duty (AD) clinical sample (n = 290) to develop and cross-validate such a scale on the MMPI-2-RF and MMPI-3. Results suggest that the MMPI SOS (Scale of Scales) scores perform equitably to existing measures of overreporting on the MMPI-2-RF and MMPI-3 and incrementally predict a PVT-classified "known-group" of Active Duty service members. Effects were generally large in magnitude. Classification accuracy achieved desired specificity (.90) and approximated expected sensitivity (.30). Implications of these findings are discussed, which emphasize how alternative overreporting detection strategies may be useful to consider for the MMPI. These alternative strategies have room for expansion and refinement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the effect of the Scottish three-verdict system (guilty, not guilty, not proven) and the Anglo-American two-verdict system (guilty, not guilty) on juror decisions by combining data sets from 10 mock trials reported in suitable studies. A logistic regression with random effects uses the exact number of convictions and acquittals in 10 mock trials from a total of 1778 jurors to reliably estimate the effect of verdict system. We found a statistically significant verdict effect suggesting that the odds for a conviction by a juror are about 0.6 times or 40% lower under the three-verdict system than under a conventional two-verdict system. Possible explanations and implications of this verdict effect are discussed. This finding helps to better understand juror decision making in the context of the current reform of the Scottish three-verdict system into a two-verdict system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examined the effect of event segmentation on cognitive control mode use in a sample of older adults (N = 30; Mage = 73, SDage = 4.75) using a modified AX-Continuous Performance Test (AX-CPT). This task included a perceptual event boundary between each cue and its forthcoming probe by means of a spatial shift across the left and right side of the display. Past research showed that young adults' existing proactive control bias could be enhanced in an event segmented AX-CPT relative to their performance on a standard AX-CPT. For older adults who adopt reactive control by default, the event boundary was expected to impede cue-reactivation during probe presentation, and thus further enhance their existing reactive control bias. To examine this, older adults were tested with a standard and an event segmented AX-CPT in two blocks, with error rates revealing a shift toward greater reactive control use in the event segmented relative to the standard AX-CPT. Findings supported our hypothesis that placing a spatial event boundary between each cue and forthcoming probe would further enhance older adults' reactive control bias. This study contributes to the sparse but growing literature on the effects of task-specific manipulations on cognitive control use. The results are discussed in light of the dual mechanisms of control framework and the event horizon model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most medical students entering clerkships have limited understanding of clinical reasoning concepts. The value of teaching theories of clinical reasoning and cognitive biases to first-year medical students is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the value of explicitly teaching clinical reasoning theory and cognitive bias to first-year medical students. Methods: Using Kolb's experiential learning model, we introduced dual process theory, script theory, and cognitive biases in teaching clinical reasoning to first-year medical students at an academic medical center in New York City between January and June 2020. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, instruction was transitioned to a distance learning format in March 2020. The curriculum included a series of written clinical reasoning examinations with facilitated small group discussions. Written self-assessments prompted each student to reflect on the experience, draw conclusions about their clinical reasoning, and plan for future encounters involving clinical reasoning. We evaluated the value of the curriculum using mixed-methods to analyze faculty assessments, student self-assessment questionnaires, and an end-ofcurriculum anonymous questionnaire eliciting student feedback. Results: Among 318 total examinations of 106 students, 254 (80%) had a complete problem representation, while 199 (63%) of problem representations were considered concise. The most common cognitive biases described by students in their clinical reasoning were anchoring bias, availability bias, and premature closure. Four major themes emerged as valuable outcomes of the CREs as identified by students: (1) synthesis of medical knowledge; (2) enhanced ability to generate differential diagnoses; (3) development of self-efficacy related to clinical reasoning; (4) raised awareness of personal cognitive biases. Conclusions: We found that explicitly teaching clinical reasoning theory and cognitive biases using an experiential learning model provides first-year medical students with valuable opportunities for developing knowledge, skills, and self-efficacy related to clinical reasoning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces the concept of "nobody-fools-me perception", a cognitive bias consisting of overconfidence in one's own ability to detect disinformation, associated with the belief that one is more immune to false content than almost everyone else. Specifically, it examines the extent to which variables such as age and education determine the conviction that one is able to spot false content, and influence the skills and habits of checking and sharing potentially unverified information on health, a serious problem in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on two face-to-face focus groups and one online focus group made up of Spanish people between the ages of 25 and 54, this qualitative research study explored the behaviour of regular citizens when assessing the truthfulness of health-related news, and their habits about believing it. The results reveal that younger people tended to distrust the ability of older people to spot false content, and vice versa. They also show that people with a higher educational level were more confident about their own immunity to disinformation. By introducing the concept of "nobody-fools-me perception", this study contributes to our understanding of how subjective perceptions lead to believing in false news. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractWith advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), explainable AI (XAI) has emerged as a promising tool for enhancing the explainability of complex machine learning models. However, the explanations generated by an XAI may lead to cognitive biases among human users. To address this problem, this study aims to investigate how to mitigate users’ cognitive biases based on their individual characteristics. In the literature review, we found two factors that can be helpful in remedying biases: 1) debiasing strategies that have been reported to potentially reduce biases in users’ decision-making via additional information or change in information delivery, and 2) explanation modality types. To examine these factors’ effects, we conducted an experiment with a 4 (debiasing strategy) × 3 (explanation type) between-subject design. In the experiment, participants were exposed to an explainable interface that provides an AI’s outcomes with explanatory information, and their behavioral and attitudinal responses were collected. Specifically, we statistically examined the effects of textual and visual explanations on users’ trust and confirmation bias toward AI systems, considering the moderating effects of debiasing methods and watching time. The results demonstrated that textual explanations lead to higher trust in XAI systems compared to visual explanations. Moreover, we found that textual explanations are particularly beneficial for quick decision-makers to evaluate the outputs of AI systems. Next, the results indicated that the cognitive bias can be effectively mitigated by providing users with a priori information. These findings have theoretical and practical implications for designing AI-based decision support systems that can generate more trustworthy and equitable explanations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Confrontation with radical online content has been empirically linked to the facilitation of radicalization processes. Therefore, building a presence of information about potential prevention of radicalization through an online campaign may be particularly relevant to limit the activities and appeals of radical actors. In this study, we thus examine the effectiveness of campaign material focused on cognitive biases (i.e., when people's cognitive processes of information are systematically distorted). We test the success of the campaign material with respect to three campaign objectives: Building (1) knowledge about biases, (2) confidence to recognize biases, and (3) awareness and relevance of the issue. We conducted an online-experiment with adolescents (N = 223) comparing a control group (no exposure to the campaign material) to (A) a group that watched the developed campaign videos and (B) a group that watched the videos and took a self-assessment quiz. This comparison aims at testing how different levels of interactivity affect the three campaign objectives. The results suggest that the campaign materials increased knowledge about cognitive biases, but did not affect adolescents' confidence in recognizing biases and the perceived relevance of learning about biases. Exposure to radical content online has been linked to facilitating radicalization processes. Therefore, building skills based on one's susceptibility to radicalization (i.e., cognitive biases) may be a potential prevention measure that can promote media literacy and limit the appeal of radical actors. This study shows that campaign materials can increase knowledge of cognitive biases and thus raise awareness of vulnerability to radical content. Nevertheless, an online campaign should ideally be accompanied by a broader and longer-term educational program to ensure long-term awareness. Since cognitive biases are a processing pattern that affects everyone, information about how one's self and others are affected by it could lead to a normalization of reflection about biased processing. This could have a positive impact on more critical media literacy and should thus be pursued in future campaigns, educational offerings, and scientific studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The present study evaluated the function of four cognitive, symptom validity scales on the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI), the Cognitive Bias Scale (CBS) and the Cognitive Bias Scale of Scales (CB-SOS) 1, 2, and 3 in a sample of Veterans who volunteered for a study of neurocognitive functioning. Method: 371 Veterans (88.1% male, 66.1% White) completed a battery including the Miller Forensic Assessment of Symptoms Test (M-FAST), the Word Memory Test (WMT), and the PAI. Independent samples t-tests compared mean differences on cognitive bias scales between valid and invalid groups on the M-FAST and WMT. Area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and hit rate across various scale point-estimates were used to evaluate classification accuracy of the CBS and CB-SOS scales. Results: Group differences were significant with moderate effect sizes for all cognitive bias scales between the WMT-classified groups (d =.52–.55), and large effect sizes between the M-FAST-classified groups (d = 1.27–1.45). AUC effect sizes were moderate across the WMT-classified groups (.650–.676) and large across M-FAST-classified groups (.816–.854). When specificity was set to.90, sensitivity was higher for M-FAST and the CBS performed the best (sensitivity =.42). Conclusion: The CBS and CB-SOS scales seem to better detect symptom invalidity than performance invalidity in Veterans using cutoff scores similar to those found in prior studies with non-Veterans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do statistical regression results compare to intuitive, visually fitted results? Fitting lines by eye through a set of points has been explored since the 20th century. Common methods of fitting trends by eye involve maneuvering a string, black thread, or ruler until the fit is suitable, then drawing the line through the set of points. In 2015, the New York Times introduced an interactive feature, called "You Draw It," where readers were asked to input their own assumptions about various metrics and compare how these assumptions relate to reality. In this article, we validate "You Draw It" as a method for graphical testing, comparing results to the less technological method used in Mosteller et al. and extending that study with formal statistical analysis methods. Results were consistent with those found in the previous study; when shown points following a linear trend, participants tended to fit the slope of the principal axis over the slope of the least-squares regression line. This trend was most prominent when shown data simulated with larger variances. This study reinforces the differences between intuitive visual model fitting and statistical model fitting, providing information about human perception as it relates to the use of statistical graphics. for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problem-solving frameworks have the potential to promote objective data-based decisions that increase the likelihood students are matched to appropriate evidence-based interventions. Unfortunately, cognitive biases, heuristics, and fallacies can lead to erroneous conclusions within problem-solving frameworks. Some of these effects have been well-studied within special education and related fields, while the effects of lesser-known biases that have not garnered the same level of attention have been extensively investigated in fields like finance and medicine. Previous educational decision-making research has focused largely on special education evaluation processes. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we highlight lesser-known cognitive biases that may impact educational decision making. Second, we discuss how said biases can be researched within problem-solving frameworks and challenged in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Victimization could cause cognitive dysfunction like negative cognitive bias. While there are studies of contemporaneous consequences, there is insufficient research on whether and how early victimization will affect adult negative cognitive bias. This study examined the dual role of resilience (i.e., whether resilience would moderate the relationship between early victimization and negative cognitive bias, and/or whether resilience would mediate the same relationship). A total of 972 college students (40% were males, Mage = 19.25, SD = 1.17, range = 16-25) from three universities in Central China completed a series of anonymous questionnaires on early victimization, resilience, and negative cognitive bias. After controlling for demographic variables, the results indicated that early victimization was positively correlated with negative cognitive bias of college students. Moderation analysis indicated that resilience moderated the relationship between early victimization and negative cognitive bias. Mediation analysis revealed that resilience partially mediated the same relationship. Specifically, the effect of early victimization on negative cognitive bias was stronger for college students with high level of resilience than those with low level of resilience. Meanwhile, early victimization affected negative cognitive bias partially through resilience. The findings elucidate the dual role of resilience in the relationship between early victimization and negative cognitive bias. On the one hand, negative cognitive bias can be reduced by enhancing resilience among victims, on the other hand, the protective role of resilience may be weakened with the increase of victimization, reminding us to pay more attention to victims with high level of resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many risks of events with the potential to cause societal collapse either lie far in the future or have a low chance of materializing in any given year. However, optimal mitigation of these long-term destabilizing risks requires state action in the present. We provide a novel framework for understanding why states struggle to formulate a rational response to these risks. In our framework, insights from cognitive psychology, long-term governance and game theory in international relations are integrated. Cognitive biases limit state forecasting accuracy; political incentives and state structures are generally not aligned with tackling the important challenges of the long-term; and global cooperation, a necessary component of mitigation of long-term destabilizing risks, is constrained by suboptimal institutional design in the face of game-theoretical challenges to cooperation. We illustrate this framework by looking at the case of how states fared against epidemic risk in the pre-COVID-19 period. Using 2019 indices of pandemic preparedness, we show that, as a result of the challenges included in our framework, almost all countries failed to take low-cost, high-benefit measures for preventing and mitigating pandemic risk. This underinvestment was widely acknowledged at the time, and occurred in spite of the well-established favorable cost-benefit ratios of such measures. In addition, international cooperation failed to lead to adequate preventive, mitigative and response policies. We argue that, considering the stakes, deepening our knowledge of why states do not adequately mitigate long-term destabilizing risks should be a priority for the study of governance. We conclude with recommendations both for policy makers and researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researchers have struggled to find rational risk factors that explain momentum profits derived from buying recent winners and shorting recent losers. Behavioral explanations have been offered that focus on the tendencies of investors to underreact to news and recommendations. Our study provides an alternative explanation centered on the behavior of sell-side analysts. We find a change in consensus recommendation from a hold to a buy is accompanied by an increase in momentum profits of 3.40% annually. Momentum profits fall, yet remain material, after the passage of Reg FD and the enactment of the Global Analyst Research Settlement. Our results support a behavioral explanation of investor cognitive biases fueled by analyst regency and optimism biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socratic questioning is used to enhance the process of guided discovery in psychotherapy sessions. Objective: Socratic questioning and guided discovery are defined, and assorted clinical examples are provided. Methods: The limited research on the impact of Socratic questioning is reviewed and integrated with 30 + years of clinical experience. Results: The scant research suggests that Socratic questioning significantly reduces depression from one session to the next, particularly for patients with a pessimistic cognitive bias, but there is no research on patient improvements at the end of psychotherapy. Conclusion: Socratic questions and guided discovery can facilitate sensitivity to issues related to diversity and can be useful in psychotherapy training. The Socratic approach relies on an integration of the research evidence, ancient philosophy, and contemporary cognitive therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

But before the reader satisfies herself that this is a book about I other people i , Levy nicely argues that she is, in fact, no counterexample to his approach. The Covid-19 pandemic provides the newest example of staunch polarization in the epistemic community, providing ample opportunity for profound disagreements on its origin and the international response in its wake. In Chapter Four (Dare to Think?), Levy sees how far we might get when we turn to "what might reasonably be taken to be individual reasoning given its best shot" (p. 88), namely, regulative epistemology, specifically, virtue epistemology. The chapter finishes with the case of the Covid-19 pandemic, and whether this constitutes a counterexample to Levy's proposed epistemology of apt deference. [Extracted from the article]

One general conclusion from existing studies is that if a team spends more resources and efforts on socially responsible initiatives, fan responses are more likely to be favorable. In the current study, however, the researchers tested a boundary condition in which consumer responses toward a team's sponsorship of cause-related messages may be paradoxically unfavorable. That is, we sought to explore when and how 'doing good' (cause sponsorship) might not complement 'doing well' (performance). Two online experiments were conducted employing participants through MTurk. The main experiment was a 2 (sponsor competency: low vs. high) × 2 (cause orientation: philanthropic vs. promotional) × 2 (message source: team-controlled channel, sponsor vs. third-party channel, news media) between-subjects design; three specific cause categories (community service, donation, and pro-environmental activism) were utilized as a within-subjects factor. Four NFL teams were identified based on their cumulative athletic performance records. The results revealed that for high (vs. low) competency teams, philanthropic (vs. promotional) cause sponsorship induced more favorable consumer responses. Also, communication with fans through sponsor-controlled channels exacerbated unfavorable fan reactions, especially in the case of competitive teams' philanthropic cause sponsorship initiatives. The current study helps broaden the existing knowledge of CSR effectiveness by exploring the seemingly counterintuitive consequences of cause sponsorship. The outcomes of the study also offer important suggestions for managers regarding potential approaches for sports organizations to strategically allocate their resources toward developing effective CSR initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wide-ranging research identifies ordered position bias and shows that alphabetical name ordering is advantageous to those at the beginning of an alphabetical listing. This study examines the impact of ordered position on stock liquidity, focusing on the Japanese language's unique structure, which does not have a strict ordering system. The study documents a nonlinear, two-dimensional ordered position effects of Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) names on stock liquidity. We also find weak evidence that the length of company names matters to stock liquidity but is of secondary importance and works only through the ordered position effect. Our results cannot be fully explained by the traditional factors of stock liquidity, such as firm size, age, leverage, and volatility. Nor can they be fully explained by the differences in ownership structure or the main bank (or Keiretsu) effect. Given the relative homogeneity of investment and regulatory constraints, our results are unlikely to be driven by cross-sectional heterogeneity of investment styles or payout policy. Our findings are consistent with the notion that investors are subject to cognitive biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consumers increasingly protest invasions of privacy by digital applications and platforms, yet they habitually reveal more information than their disclosure intent. This paradoxical behavior has been explained using rational and irrational reasons (cognitive biases and heuristics), but they have been essentially conjectural. Thus, in this research, we empirically verify the existence of the privacy paradox and test four such reasons using quasi-experiments: privacy calculus as a rational explanation, information asymmetry as part of bounded rationality, bandwagon effect as a cognitive bias, and trust as a decision-making heuristic. A dummy app was developed to collect data from 594 mobile application users. The existence of the privacy paradox was tested using regression between privacy concern and actual disclosure. Following this, the reasons for the privacy paradox were tested using ANOVA. We concluded that privacy paradox exists in the defined sample, and the two reasons that explain the privacy paradox are information asymmetry and the peanut effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies find that traditional option pricing models fail to work in practice. The implied volatility smile is one example. In this study, we examine deviations of spot prices from prices implied by put-call parity for Korean KOSPI 200 index options, one of the most actively traded derivative products in the world. Deviations are significant and economically meaningful across different moneyness categories spanning deep-in-the-money to deep-out-of-the-money options. Determinants of put-call disparities for the KOSPI 200 index options include past spot return moments, cognitive biases, and prior option trading volume relative to spot trading volume. We show mispricing is more likely to occur after periods of extreme downturns in the stock market, implying demand for put options increases relative to call options when investors become more likely to insure against extreme loss. We also show that put-call disparity rates have predictive power for future spot returns due to overreaction of KOSPI 200 index option traders, rather than to information contained in option prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the global economic downturn, the approach guided by consumer loans (CL) to boost consumer confidence is a feasible way to promote the internal circulation of the Chinese economy. Therefore, we use a time-varying rolling-window approach to identify how CL affects the consumer confidence index (CCI). We find that CL can be seen as vital support for promoting confidence because it can ease liquidity constraints and improve consumption levels. The empirical outcome is supported by the Rational Expectations Perpetual Income Hypothesis (RE-PIH), emphasizing that increasing CL can boost consumer confidence. Conversely, CCI has both positive and negative effects on CL. The positive effects suggest that consumers' optimistic confidence leads them to increase borrowing, which in turn creates a heavier debt burden. This statement cannot be supported by the negative effect due to consumers' blind self-confidence will cause cognitive bias, which is not conducive to the loan market development. Against the backdrop of increased global uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the government's continuous adjustment of loan policies, consumers can effectively optimise their consumption decision-making through borrowing. The policymaker can maintain loan stability by effectively promoting consumer confidence and raising the consumption level of the whole society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are new technologies driving us towards dystopia or utopia – or something in between? Marketers not only have a stake in finding out the answer to this question but also a direct (and indirect) influence on determining the answer. This commentary discusses recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, and how these are influencing marketers, consumers and society by either leading to a dystopian (black magic), utopian (white magic) or 'dualopian' future (grey magic). We argue that the net effect is squarely in the grey and that marketers have a unique power to leverage AI and robotics developments for good. The commentary concludes with 24 research questions forming an agenda for future research under three streams: marketing power, understanding the bias and ethics revisited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deepfakes have a pernicious realism advantage over other common forms of disinformation, yet little is known about how citizens perceive deepfakes. Using the third-person effects framework, this study is one of the first attempts to examine public perceptions of deepfakes. Evidence across three studies in the US and Singapore supports the third-person perception (TPP) bias, such that individuals perceived deepfakes to influence others more than themselves (Study 1–3). The same subjects also show a bias in perceiving themselves as better at discerning deepfakes than others (Study 1–3). However, a deepfakes detection test suggests that the third-person perceptual gaps are not predictive of the real ability to distinguish fake from real (Study 3). Furthermore, the biases in TPP and self-perceptions about their own ability to identify deepfakes are more intensified among those with high cognitive ability (Study 2-3). The findings contribute to third-person perception literature and our current understanding of citizen engagement with deepfakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research has established that contextual information has the potential to influence the decisions of examiners in various forensic domains, including forensic anthropology. Studies have demonstrated that the non-metric sex estimation methods are susceptible to issues of cognitive bias, however the different types of stimuli that can influence the decision-making process remain understudied. As forensic anthropologists will examine multiple skeletal elements to estimate the sex of skeletal remains, a pilot study was designed to assess the potential of cognitive bias resulting from the order of examination. Two groups performed a non-metric sex estimation of the innominates and the skull with methods from Standards on one individual complete skeleton. Group A examined the skull first followed by the innominates, while Group B examined the innominates first followed by the skull. Results reveal a significant difference between the two groups in the sex estimation of the innominates and the complete skeleton (p = 0.020 and p = 0.022, respectively). This research demonstrates that order of examination for sex estimation may act as context and potentially influence the subsequent analyses. Additional research is necessary to broaden the understanding of decision-making and aid in the establishment of standard operating procedures designed to mitigate the potential effects of cognitive bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although International Relations experts acknowledge the importance of prudence in policy-making processes, the term has not been properly operationalised in scholarly works. This work seeks to fill the existing gap in the literature by offering a conceptual and analytical framework of this idea. In addressing the question of what is means to act prudently in foreign affairs, this article takes the foreign policy pursued by Turkey during the Syrian Crisis as its case study. I show that prudence is intimately tied to policy-makers' ability to developing an awareness of situational and historical constraints regarding the issue at hand. And this can only be achieved, provided that policy-makers do not succumb to cognitive bias. Turkey's dismal foreign policy performance in Syria demonstrates that political leaders' failure to appreciate the relevant intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a given foreign policy setting generates the risk of running into costly mishaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collaborative innovation, in which multiple companies try to incorporate content generated by consumers into new product development, is becoming increasingly popular. The fact that overconfidence usually increases with more data means that companies integrating large amounts of consumer-generated content in collaborative innovation have a strong tendency to be overconfident. We study the effects associated with overconfidence in collaborative innovation, where overconfidence is defined as a decision maker's cognitive bias that leads to an overestimation of the precision of an uncertain event. In our collaborative innovation model, an online shopping platform collects and assimilates content (such as online reviews) generated by consumers to generate a product design and then sells that design to the manufacturer, after which the manufacturer produces a corresponding new product and sets a retail price. In this article, we mainly focus on how overconfidence impacts the product design strategy, pricing strategies, and decision makers' equilibrium profit levels. We demonstrate that overconfidence can be a positive force for collaborative innovation and even lead to a win-win-win situation for the platform, manufacturer, and consumer. We show that overconfidence can make the platform change its product design strategy from aesthetic-oriented in the unbiased scenario to functionality-oriented in the biased scenario. Furthermore, we show that each of the two product design strategies has its own scope of application; neither is universally dominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russia's decision to invade Ukraine in early 2022 was seemingly driven by an unprecedented willingness to accept risks for the Russian regime, state, and society. Developing a generalizable framework, this article analyzes the development of Russian risk acceptance in offensive war initiation. Drawing on policy documents, speeches, expert literature, and various interviews with Russian, Ukrainian, and Western policymakers, the article finds that risk acceptance has continuously risen since the mid-2000s, although the 2022 invasion still evinces some risk aversion. These results are robust when accounting for miscalculation and caution against attributing the 2022 invasion solely to short-term and leader-centric factors. They also provide cues for understanding the crisis behavior of Russia and other major powers, corroborate prospect theory models on cognitive biases in elite decision-making, and indicate the need to revise the theoretical assumption that risk acceptance is an empirically rare and drastic aberration from a risk-neutral or risk-averse normality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]