Search

The available studies on contingency planning in projects lack an effective method for accurately estimating time contingencies because they (1) do not account for historically unprecedented disruptions, (2) produce estimation errors for low-probability and high-impact events and (3) do not consider the disproportionate impact of disruptive events on project resources. With this in mind, this research posits that the notion of resilience is central to contingency planning because understanding disruptions is directly interconnected with modelling and measuring resilience to disruptions. As a result, a method for estimating time contingency is presented in which resilience is used to describe the disruption and recovery profiles of project activities. The proposed method is applied in a real-life construction project to demonstrate its capability. In addition, a case study from the literature is selected to compare the proposed method with a critical chain project management solution. The results show that an accurate forecast of time contingency requires precise information about the specific impact of a disruptive event on project resources across various stages of disruptions. From a practical standpoint, the proposed method assists project managers and key stakeholders in the delay analysis of disrupted projects, as well as in developing cost-effective resource management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relief supply inventories are important in disaster response operations. To address the problem of dead stocks and avoid relief supply expiration, such inventories must be renewed periodically. Different from the traditional shelf-life rotation mechanism (i.e. renewal of the entire inventory at the expiration date), which pays more attention to decreasing the quantity of dead stocks, the novel period rotation mechanism that we design in this study will gradually rotate relief supplies according to their shelf life. We propose a mathematical programming model to minimise the total cost of relief organisations and conduct a case study and analyse the sensitivity of key parameters using real-world data. Results show that our rotation mechanism can substantially reduce the financial burden on relief organisations and improve the quality of relief supplies for victims. The novelty of our study includes: (1) We introduce a new approach that can rotate multiple times, through which we consider the quality of relief supplies; (2) We incorporate recycling and remanufacturing into the rotation process; and (3) We adopt an inductive reasoning method to develop the model with demand and time uncertainties. We prove the feasibility of our model and contributions of our study to humanitarian logistics practice and research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian subcontinent is highly susceptible to natural disasters. To abate the effect of the disasters, the government emanates institutional mechanisms and strategies for disaster preparedness, mitigation and response. Although there is well-established institutional framework in India for disaster management, there is no study that proposes a disaster supply chain structure under the institutional framework and integrates information and digital technologies (IDT) of industry 4.0 within it. The present study overcomes this research gap. It introduces an IDT structure within the institutional framework of India for multi-agency information sharing, coordination and decision making. It formulates a mathematical model and analyses the impact of IDT on the total response time through three scenarios. The results of scenario analysis reveal the significance of IDT on the disaster supply chains and its capability to handle information delays and IDT failure. The present study can be adopted by disaster management institutions to construct and implement better response practices at the operational, planning and strategic levels. Furthermore, the proposed model in the study can be used for vaccination planning, which includes vaccine distribution, monitoring, regulation and effective implmentation as a response against the current pandemic situation caused due to SARS-CoV-2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the differential effect of the US-Mexico border on the lived experience of children exposed to flooding risk in an urbanized transborder watershed. The central argument is that this geopolitical border is an institution generative of social and spatial processes that create and thrive on differences and expose children on both sides of the border to high but unequal hazard levels. We pose that children’s bifurcated experiences with rain evince the border’s structuring power as a supra institution producing a socio-spatial regime that enables environmental inequities producing disparate representations of place. Understanding children’s lived experiences is critical to reducing their vulnerability in a highly integrated cross-border urbanization. Framed as a case study based on qualitative data obtained through narratives and visual elicitation techniques, the analysis reveals children’s experiences with flooding and associated hazards that have not been exposed in prior border research and have important implications for integrated disaster management, environmental justice, and resilience in border regions and cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To describe clinical characteristics of young children presenting to the emergency department (ED) for early recurrent wheeze, and determine factors associated with subsequent persistent wheeze and risk for early childhood asthma. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of Medicaid-enrolled children 0–3 years old with an index ED visit for wheeze (e.g. bronchiolitis, reactive airway disease) from 2009 to 2013, and at least one prior documented episode of wheeze at an ED or primary care visit. The primary outcome was persistent wheeze between 4 and 6 years of age. Demographics and clinical characteristics were collected from the index ED visit. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between potential risk factors and subsequent persistent wheeze. Results: During the study period, 41,710 children presented to the ED for recurrent wheeze. Mean age was 1.3 years; 59% were male, 42% Black, and 6% Hispanic. At index ED visits, the most common diagnosis was acute bronchiolitis (40%); 77% of children received an oral corticosteroid prescription. Between 4 and 6 years of age, 11,708 (28%) children had persistent wheeze. A greater number of wheezing episodes was associated with an increased odds of ED treatment with asthma medications. Subsequent persistent wheeze was associated with male sex, Black race, atopy, prescription for bronchodilators or corticosteroids, and greater number of visits for wheeze. Conclusions: Young children with persistent wheeze are at risk for childhood asthma. Thus, identification of risk factors associated with persistent wheeze in young children with recurrent wheeze might aid in early detection of asthma and initiation of preventative therapies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergency medical response after a strong earthquake relies on a robust transportation–healthcare system and effective management. This article proposes a resilience assessment framework for the interdependent transportation–healthcare system (ITHS) integrating physical loss and organisational management during post-earthquake emergency response. Considering the earthquake-induced injured people, the seismic damage to transportation, and the quantification of the condition of the patients after being treated, a novel metric is proposed to evaluate the response effort during the first 72 h. Bi-objective optimisation is developed to solve the real-time dispatching and treating problems instead of overwhelming one single hospital. In addition, the separate impact of disrupted transportation and damaged healthcare on the interdependent system is calculated to measure the cascading effect. It is shown that proper resource allocation and practical management are crucial to guarantee the desired level of the response effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunamis, though infrequent, wield devastating power on coastal regions, necessitating accurate simulation techniques to comprehend their impact and enhance disaster preparedness. Despite significant advances in modern computational fluid dynamics, these simulations continue to pose considerable challenges, including numerical intricacies and substantial computational costs. Owing to its remarkable computational efficiency and high performance, the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is being increasingly used for simulating large-scale tsunamis. This review paper systematically surveys the application of the free-surface flow model using the LBM to simulate tsunamis, covering its theoretical underpinnings, numerical implementation, and validation against real-world events. Furthermore, the paper discusses challenges, limitations, and ongoing developments in the application of the LBM for tsunami simulations, elucidating avenues for future research. By amalgamating insights from diverse studies, this review underscores the role of the LBM as a tool for advancing our understanding of tsunamis and increasing coastal resilience. HIGHLIGHTS: Lattice Boltzmann method investigated for tsunami simulations Challenges, limitations, and ongoing developments in tsunami simulation discussed Systematical survey of the application of the free-surface flow model Theoretical underpinning, numerical implementation, and real-world validation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of the impact of tsunami-borne debris collisions is important in designing tsunami-resistant structures and quantifying the risk for regional and industrial facilities located along the coast. Consequently, research on this topic is being actively conducted. Methods that evaluate debris behavior during tsunamis, including collision probability, velocity, and force, as well as the necessary parameters for these evaluations, are invaluable from a practical perspective and are being implemented through their incorporation into guidelines. Although research continues and evaluation techniques are maturing, identifying future challenges remains essential. This review article covers a wide range of technologies, both those already in use and those under development, and the physical processes that should be considered in these evaluations. It summarizes the applicability of evaluation methods based on accuracy, computational cost, and practicality, and clarifies the technologies currently available. The review identifies issues for future research, particularly the development of a probabilistic evaluation framework, which is highlighted as an area requiring further research. This review serves not only as a collection of practical findings but also as a basis for developing advanced evaluation techniques for tsunami-induced debris collisions, thereby contributing to the advancement of future structural design and the enhancement of local disaster preparedness against tsunamis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The argument that choosing a legislative model will strengthen Parliament's checks and balances in an emergency has not been proven in Indonesia. Due to the high president's constitutional legislative power, combined with his coalition supported by a majority of parliamentarians in Covid-19 emergency, left parliament to serve much of the executive's agenda. This paper compares the law-making process in the parliamentary period before and during the pandemic. Extreme partisan power will allow the executive to control the legislative agenda and weaken Parliament's legislative power under the pretext of the Covid-19 pandemic emergency. The 'legislative model' is no longer viable; instead, various laws have been passed, unrelated to Covid-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Minorities are particularly vulnerable during times of emergency, particularly those that challenge the state. However, it is not understood how minorities can be targeted through emergency decrees despite the government agreeing they had nothing to do with the reasons for declaring the state of emergency. The Turkish emergency in 2016 highlights this little-understood tendency where the government constructed an emergency around a threat from coup plotters, but then much of the subsequent extraordinary legislation targeted the Kurdish minority. We argue that this was possible because the Turkish government engaged in modular emergency rule. Modular emergency rule combines modes of ordinary rule with emergency powers, thus blurring the boundaries between the two. Emergency measures were laid on top of already existing policies that sought to restrict Kurdish politics in public life. In this way, modular emergency rule became more than just a transient form of government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the May 12 earthquake in Wenchuan, numerous debris flow disasters occurred due to heavy rainfall. After the earthquake, disaster prevention and mitigation projects, such as the sand dam, played an essential role in safety. However, when the outflow of solid material exceeds the designed storage capacity of the sand dam, the debris flow overtopping the dam intensifies the scraping effect on the source material of the gully channel. This paper takes the "8.20" debris flow in the Chutou gully as the research object. A transport mode of the debris flow after dam overtopping is studied through comprehensive field investigation, theoretical analysis, and indoor model tests. A quantitative evaluation model is established for the scraping depth and scraping volume of dam-overtopping debris flow. The study results showed that once the debris flow overtops a dam, the loose source carried by the channel is involved in the entire migration process, enlarging the fluid scale and intensifying the damage along the channel. The results agree with the measurements and observations, with maximum relative errors of 5.81% and 14.70%, respectively. This shows model validity. Furthermore, the test results show that the debris flow scarping phenomenon in the γ=[1.4 t/m3, 1.6 t/m3] interval is the most significant. Overall, this study will help improve future engineering decisions, design strategies, and finding the best design solutions to minimize the risk of dam-overtopping debris flow disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While state culpability in compounding disasters is nothing new, in the aftermath of the recent earthquake in Turkey the extent of state dysfunction characterized by paralysis of the administrative institutions was unprecedented. Autocratization does not mesh well with effective disaster and crisis management, neither in theory nor in practice. Over the last two decades, rising competitive authoritarianism in the country has undermined accountability, participation, predictability, and transparency in Turkish governance structures, all of which are key factors that support risk reduction and disaster management. Relying on a conceptual and theoretical inquiry informed by the concepts of autocratic legalism and tailor-made laws, this case study argues that countries characterized by competitive authoritarianism are less effective in managing disasters, because they abuse state institutions for partisan goals, create disparities in access to public resources, and diminish accountability mechanisms. The elimination of democracy as a guiding principle in public-sector management is proving ever more disastrous as details concerning the response to the earthquake emerge. This analysis offers lessons and insights regarding the strategies that were used to sideline the bureaucracy and oversight processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interpersonal communication networks serve as a critical source of disaster support, yet their dynamic role in disaster coping remains less explored. Drawing from the literature on resilience organizing and network social capital, the current study investigates how individuals from diverse backgrounds re-construct their interpersonal communication networks in response to an emerging disaster and the impact of such networks on disaster-coping outcomes. Using a community survey of multiethnic residents affected by the 2021 Texas Winter Storm, we found that individuals re-constructed their communication networks by developing more racially heterogeneous and stronger interpersonal ties in response to the disaster, and these patterns varied across major ethnic groups. Moreover, individuals' preexisting interpersonal communication relations both facilitated and constrained their disaster network reconstruction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of human mobility can be broadly applied to find solutions addressing diverse topics such as public health policy, transportation management, emergency management, and urban development. However, many mobility models require individual-level data that is limited in availability and accessibility. Synthetic populations are commonly used as the foundation for mobility models because they provide detailed individual-level data representing the different types and characteristics of people in a study area. Thorough evaluation of synthetic populations is required to detect data biases before the prejudices are transferred to subsequent applications. Although synthetic populations are commonly used for modeling mobility, they are conventionally validated by their sociodemographic characteristics, rather than mobility attributes. Mobility microdata provides an opportunity to independently/externally validate the mobility attributes of synthetic populations. This study demonstrates a spatially-oriented data validation framework and independent data validation to assess the mobility attributes of two synthetic populations at different spatial granularities. Validation using independent data (SafeGraph) and the validation framework replicated the spatial distribution of errors detected using source data (LODES) and total absolute error. Spatial clusters of error exposed the locations of underrepresented and overrepresented communities. This information can guide bias mitigation efforts to generate a more representative synthetic population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Emergency and disaster management planning is an emerging role with limited practical guidance on how it should be implemented by community, disability, health and rehabilitation service providers. This study examined the emergency preparedness of service providers and how they viewed their role and contributions to disaster risk reduction, including their capacity and willingness to facilitate preparedness planning with their clients. Materials and Methods: A questionnaire was developed and administered nationally. Descriptive statistics, multivariate regression analyses, and thematic analysis of open-ended questions provide insight on the knowledge, tools and training needs of service providers to contribute to preparedness of themselves and the people they support. Results: Facilitating emergency preparedness with people with disability was strongly associated with a high level of mental preparedness, household preparedness scores, and completion of Person-Centred Emergency Preparedness (P-CEP) training. Perceived lack of funding, insufficient tools, and exclusion of emergency planning from job descriptions were negatively associated with facilitating emergency preparedness with clients. Conclusions: Study findings lay the groundwork for development of the role and capabilities of individual service providers including the need to equip disability, health and rehabilitation service providers with training and tools to prepare themselves and the people they support for emergencies. IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION: Participation in emergency training such as psychological first aid, evacuation drills, and Person-Centred Emergency Preparedness (P-CEP) can increase the personal preparedness of service providers. Rehabilitation professionals are advised to develop their capabilities in emergency preparedness before facilitating emergency planning with their clients. Rehabilitation professionals should connect with their local emergency services to learn about disaster risks and preparedness actions they can take to increase personal emergency preparedness for themselves and their clients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a novel blockchain-based academic degree verification system. The system relies on a smart contract deployed on the Ethereum blockchain platform. The system protects the privacy of the students who have been verified without the need of encryption, and hence, avoid the complexity of security key management and the potential disaster if the keys are stolen or revealed. The amount of degree data is also designed to be minimum for proper verification. All operations on the critical path of the system are automated without any human intervention. However, the system does assume that the organization would stand behind the proposed system to ensure the system's integrity. The system is open to anyone who wishes to verify the degree of a student. To prevent spamming and to support the long-term sustainability of the system, a small fee is charged for each verification request. A portion of the fees collected is immediately credited to the participating schools. To facilitate automated school enrollment into the system, any school may request to enroll by placing a significant amount of stake in ETH. The stake can be refunded when the school decides to leave the system. However, if the school is blacklisted due to misbehavior, the stake is confiscated. This design strongly discourages adversaries from abusing the system. The performance of the system is fully characterized with regard to the gas consumption of key operations in various use cases. We demonstrate that the system is conducive for long-term sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are one of the most common natural calamities and the disastrous action of flood becomes stringent when the floods are caused by dam failures. It is quite difficult to predict the failure of dam however the technique of dam break analysis provides an effective way to understand the flood wave generated due to assumed failure of dam. The present work focuses on dam break analysis of Ajwa dam constructed on river Surya, a tributary of river Vishwamitri. The work is divided into two parts. The first part consists of hydrological modeling of Vishwamitri basin using SWAT model and estimates the flood for 20-year return period and further calibrating and validating the model in SWATCUP 2019 using SUFI2 algorithm. The maximum flood calculated from SWAT model is taken as lateral inflow in dam break model setup. The breach parameters have been adopted as per the guidelines provided by Central Water Commission. Time of arrival of dam break flood at important locations downstream of Ajwa dam has been identified. The results reflect the potential of such a study to encompass the emergency action plans to safeguard the public and property in case of the possible flood event due to dam break. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important aspect of emergency management, materials transportation supports the emergency supply during the pandemic. However, its efficiency may be degraded due to the problem of information asymmetry, leading to confusion in materials management. This study analyses the feasibility of applying blockchain technology to the process of materials collaborative transportation. And the evolutionary game model is applied to analyse the stable evolutionary strategies of logistics enterprises. Finally, a system dynamics model is built for numerical simulations to verify the rationality of the game analysis results. In conclusion, long-term evolutionary stable equilibria of logistics enterprises are determined by multiple variables. To motivate logistics enterprises to participate in collaborative transportation, decision-making departments should focus on tax incentives, epidemic prevention subsidies, and platform construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue Canadienne des Ressources Hydriques is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Pakistan has faced significant economic losses due to catastrophes, specifically floods. This study aims to assess the ripple effects of the 2022 floods, focusing on the Construction Industry, which has been gaining importance in the national economy, and on the resilience of economic sectors absorbing the negative shocks from floods. The study uses the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) Input-Output database for Pakistan using the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM) with the Fuzzy Full Consistency Method (F-FUCOM). The analysis revealed that the Construction Industry's weak resilience resulted in a prolonged recovery period and that the lack of flood risk mitigation infrastructure was identified as the most critical. The results suggest that policymakers prioritise such infrastructures, like dams, early warning systems, and transportation infrastructure, to enhance the resilience of the overall economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research is to undertake explorative research and present propositions that would identify the drivers of regional emergency networks, i.e. regional technological collaborative agreements under extreme conditions. Based on previous studies on emergency management, we empirically evaluate how 49 organizations built 53 technological cooperative agreements within the context of COVID-19. We consider individual, dyadic and whole network level variables to build on theory about how these emergency networks are created. We propose that emergency networks are developed under embedded relationships, with physically proximate partners that are also indirectly connected. Secondly, we establish that emergency networks are characterized by heterarchical leadership with lower density connections between many different partners. Finally, we deliberate on the role of partner diversity in developing emergency networks, establishing alternative propositions based on the similarity in innovative capacity and institutional character of the partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we examine the short-term stock price reactions of Japanese gaming companies to events related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Using the event study method, we first estimate stock price reactions to the outbreak of the pandemic and the declaration of a state of emergency. We then perform multivariate regressions to investigate the factors affecting market responses. Our results demonstrate that the stock prices of Japanese gaming companies reacted negatively to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the initial negative effects were greater for mobile gaming companies and for companies with small sizes or low Tobin's Q. By contrast, the market has reacted positively to the declaration of the state of emergency, which perhaps drove more people to play games at home. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Nigeria, where rainfall plays a pivotal role in agriculture and disaster management, assessing the accuracy of satellite rainfall estimates at various thresholds is imperative. This study assesses the areal averages of nine satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) against 48 ground-based raingauge observations in Nigeria. Employing categorical statistical metrics and compromise programming, the research assesses the performance of SPEs at seven rainfall thresholds. Results reveal that 82–94% of rainfall estimates align with ground truth, while 5–14% of rainy days are incorrectly detected by raingauges. Notably, SPEs tend to overestimate low rain between 1 mm and 5 mm d−1 and underestimate low heavy rain rates (10 mm ≤ rain < 20 mm), impacting flood monitoring and disaster preparedness. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (CPCC), Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series (TARCAT), and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) emerge as more reliable SPEs, particularly in highland regions. This research underscores the importance of choosing appropriate satellite precipitation estimates for enhanced disaster preparedness and resource management across different Nigerian regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the opinions of both disaster victims and staff about disaster services following the Ayancık flood. This study is a qualitative research using the phenomenological approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 victims and 13 staff members one year after the disaster. The data were analyzed by using the MAXQDA program. Our evaluation revealed inadequacies in risk reduction studies and aid organizations’ efforts. Staff highlighted low public awareness and preparedness, while victims emphasized slow reconstruction efforts that ignored their input. Social workers must identify multiple practices that can be undertaken at different disaster phases. Future studies can examine the experiences of different disasters, countries, and social workers and contribute to disaster management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Virtual reality (VR) can be used to train for complex, dynamic and dangerous situations, such as disaster response. The aim of this research is to support trainers with an immersive authoring tool that facilitates the implementation of training environments, enabling both the design and execution of complex and dynamic exercises. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify VR-based authoring tools. Each environment was assessed based on variability, reusability and design assistance, with each criterion graded on a 3-point scale. Following a model-driven approach, the work presented in this article introduces the CESTATE (Cascading Effect Simulation To Authoring Training Environments) framework. It uses a metamodel to design training exercises, thus ensuring their reusability. Inheriting from the Physics of Decisions paradigm, this metamodel can be used to describe all types of potentialities and cascading effects. This ensures the dynamic, and therefore, the plausibility of the virtual training environment. In addition, this framework supports the design of immersive training environments, at both design and run time. It is a generic approach. Its applicability is demonstrated in several iterations of a case study involving the training of practitioners on a complex and realistic crisis situation: a fire in a cathedral. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectiveMethodsResultsConclusionThis study identified rural community experiences and preferences related to available resources and their effects on stress following tornadoes and floods.The Rural Natural Disaster Stress and Recovery survey was distributed from December 2021 to February 2022 in rural disaster-affected communities. Within the analysis sample (N = 159) of self-selected participants representing both agricultural and non-agricultural occupations, 125 responded to the Resource Use and Effect survey component that evaluated the effects of 22 resources on post-disaster stress. Additional qualitative questions provided further data.The most frequently used resources post-disaster were found to be talking about the event (98.3%), friends and neighbors (97.6%) and family (97.6%). Using a derived Impact per Use score, groups from the neighboring community and personal faith activities most often reduced stress. Resources that increased stress were identified as FEMA or other government organizations; repairing, replacing, or rebuilding property; and following news or social media. Participants reported help from their community (35.8%) or things they did for themselves (31.2%) most effectively decreased disaster stress. Family, friends, faith, neighbors, and community were top choices to decrease stress in a future disaster.Rural residents identified available resources for reducing disaster stress, but some common post-disaster activities were found to increase stress. Rural emergency management should adapt response and recovery plans and activities to leverage readily accessible people, groups, and activities to mitigate negative mental and emotional health effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last two decades have seen an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, placing complex demands on police and emergency services in the UK. Despite the growing recognition of the cascading and multidimensional threats, there is limited understanding of how policing and local governance actors are preparing for the climate crisis. In this paper, we argue that polycentric governance approaches, such as the Local Resilience Forums (LRFs), provide an essential focal point for emergency planning and disaster response activity that is rooted in localised contexts. However, while the LRFs are designed to benefit from the inclusion of a broad range of actors, dominant mentalities, knowledge hierarchies and powerful actors may limit their epistemic potential. We propose that a pathway towards a resilient and adaptive policing agenda for the Anthropocene necessitates acknowledging the limits of policing knowledge, expertise and traditional command-and-control mentalities. We draw on the notion of epistocracy to propose a policy and research agenda for police and partner agencies to harness the epistemic potential of LRFs. By adopting approaches to leverage pluralised forms of knowledge and identifying strategies for co-opting community-based actors in emergency planning and response activities, police and partner agencies can strengthen local capacity-building and better promote local resilience and adaptation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract\nPLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARYOrganizations are perpetually challenged to adapt and evolve in the increasingly complex and unpredictable public service landscape. Using two international case studies from Australia and New Zealand, this research examines the critical role of adaptive leadership in fostering resilience within public service entities, focusing on the integral role of ethics in disaster response. The research is grounded in the theory of adaptive leadership, which posits that contemporary organizational challenges require leadership to encourage adaptation and learning. The study explores how adaptive leadership, intertwined with ethical practices, contributes to creating resilient public service organizations capable of withstanding and evolving through crises, constant changes, and adversities. Through a detailed examination of the case studies affecting the general public and ethical considerations, the research unravels the intricacies of public administrators’ ethical dilemmas, concluding with reflections on the implications for public service ethics, integrity, and public trust. The study not only elucidates the symbiotic relationship between adaptive leadership and ethics in fostering organizational resilience but also charts a course for future policy formulation and leadership training programs, underscoring the indispensable role of ethical governance in navigating crises.This study investigates how leaders in government organizations best handle tricky situations like natural disasters. Adaptive leadership, which is flexible and encourages learning, is essential, especially when quick and innovative responses are necessary. For instance, after the disasters of bushfires in Australia or earthquakes in New Zealand, leaders who used this style were more successful in preparing for, managing, and recovering. This was partly due to their ethical approach, which focuses on fairness, transparency, and working for the common good.Ethical leadership is crucial because it builds trust within the community, which is especially important during crises. Leaders who communicate effectively, listen to the community, and engage with people’s concerns make better decisions for everyone involved. This article emphasizes that leaders who adapt and maintain strong values are vital for public service organizations to overcome challenges and serve the public effectively. Training future leaders in adaptive and ethical leadership is recommended to ensure organizations respond to challenges effectively and with the public’s interest at heart. This approach will prepare organizations to survive and thrive in adversity, building a resilient and trustworthy public service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marching band (MB) artists are subject to exertional heat illnesses (EHIs) similar to other active groups like laborers and athletes. Yet, they are an understudied population with no evidence-based heat safety guidelines. Presented here is a case study of the 233rd annual Bristol, RI Independence Day Parade in 2018 that resulted in over 50 EHIs, including 25 from the Saint Anthony Village marching band (MB) from suburban Minneapolis, MN. This research aims to identify the contributing factors that led to the large number of EHIs, as well as guide ensuring the safety of MB artists in future events. A human heat balance model in conjunction with local weather data was used to simulate heat stress on MB artists. Three modeling scenarios were used to isolate the roles of clothing (band uniform vs. t-shirt and shorts), weather (July 4, 2018 vs. 30-year climatology), and metabolic rate (slow, moderate, and brisk marching pacing) on heat stress. The results identify several key factors that increased heat stress. The meteorological conditions were unusually hot, humid, and sunny for Bristol, resulting in reduced cooling from evaporation and convection, and increased radiant heating. Behavioral factors also affect heat stress. The full marching band uniforms reduced evaporative cooling by 50% and the activity levels of marching 4 km over several hours without breaks resulted in conditions that were uncompensable. Finally, it is speculated that a lack of acclimatization for participants from cooler regions may have exacerbated heat-related impacts. These findings highlight several recommendations for MB directors and race organizers, including the use of summer uniforms for anticipated hot conditions, and advance parade planning that includes providing shade/hydration before and after the parade for participants, considering cooler routes that reduce radiant heating and preparing for anticipated heat-related health impacts appropriate for anticipated hot conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Post-disaster humanitarian relief logistics focuses on managing the supply and shipment of relief items. Owing to the complexity arising from the hierarchical decision relationship and the uncertainties of demand and transportation, it is challenging to develop an effective humanitarian relief logistics network (HRLN). A globalized robust bi-level multi-objective HRLN model involving uncertainties in transportation time, transportation cost and demand is developed to address this problem, in which an upper-level decision-maker focuses on the allocation problem and a lower-level decision-maker considers the supply problem. For tractability, the goal programming approach is employed to trade off conflicting timeliness, satisfaction and operational cost objectives. The proposed globalized robust bi-level HRLN model is reformulated as its globalized robust counterpart formulations under two different perturbation structures. The primal–dual approach is adopted to transform the bi-level models into equivalent mixed-integer conic programs. A case study concerning an Iranian earthquake is conducted to prove the performance of the proposed model. Globalized robust models are more flexible and able to immunize against uncertainty by comparison with traditional robust optimization and deterministic solutions. The managerial insights of using the globalized robust bi-level optimization approach are reported for disaster response management. The design of an emergency aviation network to circumvent the effects of COVID-19 could be considered in future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The promotion of community resilience is a multifaceted process that warrants further exploration. This article aims to contribute to this literature stream by assessing the role of citizen science (CS) approaches in the development of community resilience, since CS is considered a promising approach for generating new knowledge by fostering the participation of citizens (non-professional scientists) in research activities. The results show that CS approaches can contribute to community resilience at the institutional level, improving emergency and recovery planning capacity; at the infrastructural level, by contributing to land use planning and urban design; and at the social level, through the creation of community ties and social capital. This contribution is relevant for the development of public policies that are more shaped to local contexts and aligned with communities' needs and expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work explores how social capital impacts community resilience via the community development framework, with dimensions spanning trust, cooperativism, volunteerism, reciprocity, and interpersonal relationships in mitigating climate change impacts. With flooding impacts as a case, a mixed method approach was used, purposely recruiting 24 research cooperators in one of the suburban villages in the central Philippines. Results show that key components in disaster mitigation plans include help-seeking behavior, community responses, social relations, and resource allocation within communities. Findings demonstrate that social capital has proven invaluable in mobilizing resources, building resilience, disseminating information, mediating conflict resolution, providing psychological support, and improving livelihoods within communities. By exploring the role of social capital in community development, this study sheds light on its importance for climate change mitigation and disaster risk reduction initiatives. Policymakers, development practitioners, and community leaders can frame these findings to effectively harness social capital and foster community participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This systematic review assesses the relationship between climate induced coastal hazards and psychological well-being of communities in the Asia-Pacific region. The review synthesises findings from 13 peer-reviewed articles published between 2007 and 2020, encompassing data from seven countries: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Vietnam. Results reveals a robust negative association between exposure to coastal hazards and psychological outcomes, notably stress, depression, anxiety, and distress. Most of the studies (77%) corroborate negative impacts of coastal hazards on psychological health. Additionally, 69% of the reviewed articles suggest a correlation between coastal hazards and negative outcomes for community livelihoods and essential resources. The review highlights increased psychological vulnerability among marginalised subpopulations, such as economically disadvantaged communities, a trend supported by 92% of the examined articles. The findings indicates that factors such as environmental vulnerability, resource availability, community traits, and coping methods are important in determining whether a community can effectively handle coastal hazards or face increased psychological health risks. This research aligns with international health frameworks, including the World Health Organization’s Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management guidelines. However, a notable research gap emerges – the absence of studies that specifically explore psychological responses of communities to ongoing climate-related coastal hazards, such as sea-level rise. These findings emphasise an urgent need for targeted research to guide comprehensive, multidisciplinary policy interventions aimed at mitigating the psychological and socio-economic repercussions of climate-related coastal hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive understanding of the intricate relationship between precipitation threshold and extreme river discharge, especially in mountainous regions, is challenging yet crucial for effective mountain risk management. This study, conducted in the Himalayan region of Nepal, employs an innovative approach using Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves to identify potential precipitation extremes relevant to extreme river discharges. Detailed analysis of historical hydrometeorological events and their impacts in Nepal was carried out to select a specific event for thorough examination. Additionally, the research evaluates satellite-based precipitation data and utilizes frequency analysis techniques such as Gumbel and Log Pearson Type III distributions, customized to the region’s unique conditions. Furthermore, the study evaluates Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) curves at various sub-basin levels. The findings underscore the significant role of 3-day consecutive precipitation over 1-day events in generating extreme river discharge within the basin. Notably, the study reveals discrepancies between PMP values derived from gauge-based and satellite-based data, emphasizing the necessity for proper bias correction of the satellite data. Despite its limitations, the research highlights the potential of high-resolution satellite data for disaggregating gauge observed daily precipitation and underscores its applicability to other Himalayan basins, offering valuable insights into precipitation-related extreme events and their implications for water resource management and disaster risk reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid development of information and communications technology has turned individuals into sensors, fostering the growth of human-generated geospatial big data. In disaster management, geospatial big data, mainly social media data, have opened new avenues for observing human responses to disasters in near real-time. Previous research relies on geographical information in geotags, content, and user profiles to locate social media messages. However, less than 1% of users geotag their messages, leaving geolocating users through user profiles or message content addresses increasingly crucial. This paper evaluates and visualizes the margin of error incurred when using user profiles or message-mentioned addresses to geolocate social media data for disaster research. Using Twitter data during the 2017 Hurricane Harvey as an example, this research assessed the inconsistencies in predicting users' locations in various administrative units during each disaster phase using three geolocating strategies. The results reveal that the similarities between geotags, and user profile locations decrease from 94.07% to 64.56%, 43.9%, 31.82%, 27.05%, and 26.7% as the geographical scale changes from country to state, county, block group, 1-kilometer, and 30-meter levels. These similarities are overall higher than the agreements between locations derived from geotags and tweet content. The geolocation consistencies among the three methods remain stable across disaster phases. The impacts of uncertainties in geolocating Twitter data for disaster management applications were further unraveled. The findings offer valuable insights into the trade-off between spatial scale and geolocation accuracy and inform the selection of appropriate scales when applying different geolocating strategies in future social media-based investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State governance after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident created a culture of silence and tolerance surrounding radiation risk, and deliberately fueled the popular understanding that acting upon radiation-related concern was antithetical to national and regional economic recovery. Outright denial of danger by Japanese leaders, paired with loosened safety standards and limited state support for affected residents by way of guidance and compensation, led to a privatization of radiation risk management that placed responsibility for exposure reduction onto families while also constraining their action. Drawing on in-depth interviews and participant observation, this article explores how such dynamics fell most heavily on concerned mothers, who were far more likely to take on this additional realm of domestic labor and care work due to deeply ingrained norms of gendered labor and citizenship. Yet such maternal labor was not lauded as a valuable social contribution. Rather, concerned mothers found themselves in a double bind in which to care for their families through vigilant avoidance of potential risk was to betray the state. Risk mitigation came to require a significant amount of emotion work associated with not appearing overly anxious or paranoid, constantly assessing the risk perception of others, and at times suppressing concern and compromising on risk tolerance. The results of this study suggest that neoliberal models of environmental risk management, particularly in moments of high uncertainty surrounding the risk in question, can not only create internal, interpersonal, and community conflict but also exacerbate existing gender inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information content is crucial for public opinion governance, yet its psychological mechanisms remain unclear. This paper endeavors to bridge this knowledge gap by examining the influence of information content on users' psychological responses. Drawing insights from the heuristic-systematic model (HSM) and regulatory focus theory, we constructed a novel cognitive and emotional response model. Regression analysis reveals that susceptibility strongly influences primary cognitive responses, while severity affects secondary ones. Susceptibility has a stronger impact on emotional responses than severity. Promotion-focus users are less influenced by severity and susceptibility than prevention-focus users. These results offer valuable insights for emergency management strategies and enhance individuals' resilience in coping with the psychological toll of emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was conducted to determine relationship between disasters and sleep problems in adolescents. In this descriptive and cross-sectional study, 407 adolescents aged 10–18 years were included. The data were collected with Descriptive Characteristics Form, Disaster Fear Form, and Bergen Insomnia Scale. 86.5% of the adolescents had experienced at least one disaster. It was found that 67.3% of adolescents experienced sleep problems after disasters. A positive correlation was found between the mean scores of Fear Disaster Form and Bergen Insomnia Scale. In addition, mean Bergen Insomnia Scale scores of adolescents who experienced earthquakes, pandemic disease, traffic accidents, and floods were statistically higher than those who did not (p < 0.05). By screening for sleep problems in adolescents who have experienced disasters and planning and implementing appropriate interventions, adolescents who are already at risk for sleep problems can develop healthy sleep habits and prevent physiological, mental, and cognitive problems due to sleep problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic and its restrictions on daily routines have had a large effect on mental health. This study aimed to explore perceived changes in leisure behavior and some potentially beneficial leisure activities as factors associated with prevalence of depression symptoms during nationwide restrictions of the State of Emergency (SoE). Eight hundred ninety-six adults participated in a cross-sectional online survey during the SoE in Estonia in spring 2020. Binary logistic regression models, with adjustments for covariates, demonstrated that shifted leisure behaviors (having less leisure time; largely or totally changed habitual leisure activities) during the SoE played a role in increased risk of depression symptoms. Our results suggest that higher involvement in physical activities, more time spent in nature, and greater commitment to durable hobbies all appear to have a protective effect against the risk of depression symptoms. Further longitudinal studies on representative samples are needed to establish reliable causal relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2023 Eastern Pacific hurricane season was above average, with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 8 major hurricanes. Six tropical cyclones made landfall in Mexico, with Hurricane Otis being the strongest and costliest, causing fatalities and significant damage in Acapulco. Other notable hurricanes included Lidia, Hilary, Norma, and Max. The season also brought heavy rainfall and flooding to Hawaii. This document provides summaries of three specific hurricanes: Norma, Otis, and Pilar, detailing their impacts and effects on various regions. The information is sourced from the National Hurricane Center. [Extracted from the article]

Access after disasters to resources such as food poses planning problems that affect millions of people each year. Understanding how disasters disrupt and alter food access during the initial steps of the recovery process provides new evidence to inform both food system and disaster planning. Our research took a supply-side focus and explored the results from a survey of food retailers after Hurricane Harvey in three Texas counties. The survey collected information on how the disaster affected a store's property, people, and products and the length of time a store was closed, had reduced hours, and stopped selling fresh food items. We found that a focus only on store closures and property damage would underestimate the number of days residents had limited fresh food access by nearly 2 weeks. Further, stores in lower-income communities with chronically low access to supermarkets (food deserts) were closed longer than other stores, potentially compounding pre-existing inequalities. To plan for a more equitable food supply after a disaster, planners should embrace more dimensions of access, encourage retailer mitigation, and assess the types of retailers and their distribution within their communities. Practicing planners aspire to ensure equitable access to resources (e.g., food, education, and health care). In the context of food access, planners should consider that a) common proximity-based measures of accessibility (e.g., food deserts) may underestimate inequality and that the inclusion of multiple dimensions of access may provide a more accurate picture, b) efforts to encourage business resilience can complement food systems planning, and c) targeted engagement with local food retailers, food suppliers, and food aid agencies is important for both day-to-day community needs and for disaster planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relation between disaster risk and banks' loan loss provisions (LLP). We propose a disaster risk measure based on the natural disasters declared as major disasters by the Federal Emergency Management Agency over a 15-year span. We theoretically support and empirically validate our measure using three different approaches, including the UN Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction, which relates disaster risk to natural hazard exposure, vulnerability and capacity, and hazard characteristics. Using more than 445,000 bank-quarter observations, we document that banks located in U.S. counties with higher disaster risk recognize larger LLP after controlling for other bank-level factors related to LLP. We employ several techniques to ensure the robustness of our findings, including difference-in-differences estimation and matched samples. In additional analysis, we explore the characteristics that better enable banks to recognize disaster risk in their LLP, and investigate the consequences of managing disaster risk through LLP. Our results are important, especially because of the increasing concern about disaster risk and because they inform the growing debate on the economic consequences of disaster risk and the ability of the banking system to proactively manage the resulting credit risk through LLP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radiological disasters have been recognized as a prominent societal catastrophe worldwide since the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. In order to cope with such disasters, efforts have been made to improve disaster response plans and systems based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. Particularly, as demonstrated by the Fukushima case, radiological disasters require the assumption of large-scale evacuation of residents. Thus, it is essential for prompt and accurate decision-making to take place at the local government's Emergency Management Center (EMC), enabling smooth execution of the missions assigned to personnel at the field. This is crucial for protecting the lives of residents and ensuring their safety. However, the existing systems for effective response to radiological disasters are relatively inadequate compared to other types of disasters. To overcome these limitations, this study aims to develop Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that are optimized for radiological disaster response by standardizing the Field Measure Motion Manual at nuclear safety for local governments. Based on these SOPs, The Resident Protection Measures Support System (RPMS) will be proposed, which enables the timely dissemination of specific missions and information to personnel, while providing real-time information on the situation at the field to the EMC, supporting decision-making and facilitating effective situation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disaster management is a complex problem demanding sophisticated modeling approaches. We propose utilizing a hybrid method involving inverse optimization to parameterize the cost functions for a road network's traffic equilibrium problem and employing a modified version of a two-stage stochastic model to make protection decisions using the information gained from inverse optimization. Inverse optimization allows users to take observations of solutions of optimization and/or equilibrium problems and estimate the parameter values of the functions defining them. In the case of multi-stage stochastic programs for disaster relief, using inverse optimization to parameterize the cost functions can prevent users from making incorrect protection decisions. We demonstrate the framework using two types of cost functions for the traffic equilibrium problem and two different networks. We showcase the value of inverse optimization by demonstrating that, in most of the experiments, different decisions are made when the stochastic network protection problem is parameterized by inverse optimization versus when it is parameterized using a uniform cost assumption. We also demonstrate that similar decisions are made when the stochastic network protection problem is parameterized by inverse optimization versus when it is parameterized by the original/"true" cost parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although lockdown drills are a practice widely used in K-12 public schools across the United States to prepare students and staff to respond to acts of violence, research has only just begun to consider the impacts of these practices on those who participate in them. This study adds to the growing body of literature by examining the potential impact of students' exposure to violence (ETV) in their school on perceptions of safety and emergency preparedness in the context of lockdown drills. The findings indicate that ETV decreases both safety and preparedness perceptions. The association between perceived school safety and ETV, however, weakens over time and may be lessened by participation in drills and associated training. Implications for policy and practice are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lately, there has been increased interest among researchers in studying the resilience of manufacturing supply chains. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has caused severe disruptions in global supply chains, which have led to calls for greater resilience in these supply chains. This study provides insights into the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on supply chain resilience by conducting a multiple case study in three intertwined industries based on the dynamic capability view and the relational capability view as a theoretical underpinning. Data were collected during the pandemic in a two-stage interview process with 18 supply chain and production experts directly involved in crisis management. Internal and external documents supplemented the interviews. The results revealed seven higher-level capability groups for building resilience in intertwined supply chains during a pandemic outbreak: agility, collaboration, digital preparedness, flexible redundancy,human resource management, contingency planning, and transparency and visibility. Each capability group is supported by associated capabilities extracted from the data analysis. The findings obtained based on the results of the multiple case study are discussed, and implications for management and future research directions are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of supply chain (SC) disaster readiness on SC resilience and robustness and the subsequent impact on firms’ financial performance in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak. Drawing on the dynamic capabilities view and organisational readiness for change theory, we provide a theoretical model and assess data gathered of 398 French firms using structural equation modelling. The findings corroborate the role of SC disaster readiness in setting the stage for resilience and robustness. In addition, the results indicate the positive influence of SC resilience on financial performance; however, the effects of SC robustness on performance are not demonstrated. Based on these results, we offer theoretical and practical implications for the extant literature and provide further avenues for research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused tremendous turmoil worldwide and is yet to be contained. Therefore, mitigating the number of people infected by COVID-19 remains a fundamental policy goal for several countries. This study aims to analyse the dynamic relationship between mobility and the rate of change in the number of new infections (NNIs) in Japan. Another goal is to evaluate the effects of various policies, such as mobility control and vaccination, as well as the impact of climate factors on the NNIs. The analysis reveals a strong positive relationship between the growth rate of the NNIs and mobility. Our results also indicate that the government-imposed measure of regulating mobility shows a weaker effect on preventing the spread of infection, as the emergency declaration is repeatedly invoked. By contrast, the recent increase in the infection rate seems to reduce the spread of infection by inducing voluntary restraint, and this phenomenon has become even stronger in the recent period. Regarding the effect of vaccination, the results demonstrate little effect on attenuating the spread of infection. However, it has significantly weakened the mobility – spread relationship, suggesting that it may help in the implementation of economic revitalization policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the risk of extreme heat in urban centres becomes more frequent and intense, a comparative case study of New York City, New York's and New Orleans, Louisiana's policy responses to dangerous heat highlights past approaches to protecting vulnerable populations, where improvements can be made to best suit local needs, and the areas where solutions may still be implemented. Two cities at the forefront of the climate crisis in the United States, their policy approaches are guided by their histories, their existing adaptations and behaviours, and the harsh reality the changing climate has wrought. New York City has prioritised cooling centres as a safety measure, as the city is regularly seeing hundreds of heat-related deaths per year, often in unairconditioned homes. New Orleans has prioritised the installation of back-up energy generation following mass blackouts caused by Hurricane Ida in 2021 and deaths of at least 10 residents in the resulting excessive heat exposure. In New York, census tracts with the highest percentage of Black, elderly, and foreign-born populations were most likely to have reduced access to a cooling centre. In New Orleans, tracts with the highest percentage of Black, elderly, unemployed, and impoverished populations were most likely to have reduced access to a cooling centre. Comparing both city's codes, regulations, and policies, reviewing their emergency management communication strategies on social media, and performing GIS analysis on cooling centre locations against vulnerability criteria paints a clear picture of where heat policy stands in both cities and where it could potentially expand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the receiving terminal of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the efficient emergency response of the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) is crucial to ensure the safety of LNG transportation at sea. However, few existing literature study the risk issues of FSRUs during emergency operations. In order to improve the emergency response capability of FSRU, this study proposes an innovative assessment method to identify hazards, quantify and rank the risks associated with emergency response and disposal operations of FSRU accidents. Firstly, a comprehensive index hierarchy system applicable to human, equipment, environment, and management aspects of emergency response and disposal operations of FSRU accident is established through an extensive literature review, analysis of accident reports, and expert judgments. Secondly, based on the concept of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers, the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Hybrid Weighted Euclidean Distance (IFHWED) operator is used to enhance the conventional FMEA approach. This method considers the varying levels of expert confidence and integrates subjective and objective weights of risk influential factors (RIFs), and the efficacy is validated through sensitivity analysis. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation model employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithms is used to aggregate the risk values of RIFs. The findings of this study offer decision-makers insights into risks during emergency operation, provide valuable guiding strategies for FSRU accident management, and improve the capability for emergencies at sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]