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We consider machine-learning-based lesion identification and malignancy prediction from clinical dermatological images, which can be indistinctly acquired via smartphone or dermoscopy capture. Additionally, we do not assume that images contain single lesions, thus the framework supports both focal or wide-field images. Specifically, we propose a two-stage approach in which we first identify all lesions present in the image regardless of sub-type or likelihood of malignancy, then it estimates their likelihood of malignancy, and through aggregation, it also generates an image-level likelihood of malignancy that can be used for high-level screening processes. Further, we consider augmenting the proposed approach with clinical covariates (from electronic health records) and publicly available data (the ISIC dataset). Comprehensive experiments validated on an independent test dataset demonstrate that (1) the proposed approach outperforms alternative model architectures; (2) the model based on images outperforms a pure clinical model by a large margin, and the combination of images and clinical data does not significantly improves over the image-only model; and (3) the proposed framework offers comparable performance in terms of malignancy classification relative to three board certified dermatologists with different levels of experience.

Background In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic our institution was interested in forecasting how long surgical patients receiving elective procedures would spend in the hospital. Initial examination of our models indicated that, due to the skewed nature of the length of stay, accurate prediction was challenging and we instead opted for a simpler classification model. In this work we perform a deeper examination of predicting in-hospital length of stay. Methods We used electronic health record data on length of stay from 42,209 elective surgeries. We compare different loss-functions (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean relative error), algorithms (LASSO, Random Forests, multilayer perceptron) and data transformations (log and truncation). We also assess the performance of two stage hybrid classification-regression approach. Results Our results show that while it is possible to accurately predict short length of stays, predicting longer length of stay is extremely challenging. As such, we opt for a two-stage model that first classifies patients into long versus short length of stays and then a second stage that fits a regresssor among those predicted to have a short length of stay. Discussion The results indicate both the challenges and considerations necessary to applying machine-learning methods to skewed outcomes. Conclusions Two-stage models allow those developing clinical decision support tools to explicitly acknowledge where they can and cannot make accurate predictions.

Background Screening malaria-specific antibody responses on protein microarrays can help identify immune factors that mediate protection against malaria infection, disease, and transmission, as well as markers of past exposure to both malaria parasites and mosquito vectors. Most malaria protein microarray work has used serum as the sample matrix, requiring prompt laboratory processing and a continuous cold chain, thus limiting applications in remote locations. Dried blood spots (DBS) pose minimal biohazard, do not require immediate laboratory processing, and are stable at room temperature for transport, making them potentially superior alternatives to serum. The goals of this study were to assess the viability of DBS as a source for antibody profiling and to use DBS to identify serological signatures of low-density Plasmodium falciparum infections in malaria-endemic regions of Myanmar. Methods Matched DBS and serum samples from a cross-sectional study in Ingapu Township, Myanmar were probed on protein microarrays populated with P. falciparum antigen fragments. Signal and trends in both sample matrices were compared. A case-control study was then performed using banked DBS samples from malaria-endemic regions of Myanmar, and a regularized logistic regression model was used to identify antibody signatures of ultrasensitive PCR-positive P. falciparum infections. Results Approximately 30% of serum IgG activity was recovered from DBS. Despite this loss of antibody activity, antigen and population trends were well-matched between the two sample matrices. Responses to 18 protein fragments were associated with the odds of asymptomatic P. falciparum infection, albeit with modest diagnostic characteristics (sensitivity 58%, specificity 85%, negative predictive value 88%, and positive predictive value 52%). Conclusions Malaria-specific antibody responses can be reliably detected, quantified, and analysed from DBS, opening the door to serological studies in populations where serum collection, transport, and storage would otherwise be impossible. While test characteristics of antibody signatures were insufficient for individual diagnosis, serological testing may be useful for identifying exposure to asymptomatic, low-density malaria infections, particularly if sero-surveillance strategies target individuals with low previous exposure as sentinels for population exposure.

Methods used to predict surgical case time often rely upon the current procedural terminology (CPT) code as a nominal variable to train machine-learned models, however this limits the ability of the model to incorporate new procedures and adds complexity as the number of unique procedures increases. The relative value unit (RVU, a consensus-derived billing indicator) can serve as a proxy for procedure workload and could replace the CPT code as a primary feature for models that predict surgical case length. Using 11,696 surgical cases from Duke University Health System electronic health records data, we compared boosted decision tree models that predict individual case length, changing the method by which the model coded procedure type; CPT, RVU, and CPT–RVU combined. Performance of each model was assessed by inference time, MAE, and RMSE compared to the actual case length on a test set. Models were compared to each other and to the manual scheduler method that currently exists. RMSE for the RVU model (60.8 min) was similar to the CPT model (61.9 min), both of which were lower than scheduler (90.2 min). 65.2% of our RVU model’s predictions (compared to 43.2% from the current human scheduler method) fell within 20% of actual case time. Using RVUs reduced model prediction time by ninefold and reduced the number of training features from 485 to 44. Replacing pre-operative CPT codes with RVUs maintains model performance while decreasing overall model complexity in the prediction of surgical case length.

SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to trigger a wide spectrum of immune responses and clinical manifestations in human hosts. Here, we sought to elucidate novel aspects of the host response to SARS-CoV-2 infection through RNA sequencing of peripheral blood samples from 46 subjects with COVID-19 and directly comparing them to subjects with seasonal coronavirus, influenza, bacterial pneumonia, and healthy controls. Early SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers a powerful transcriptomic response in peripheral blood with conserved components that are heavily interferon-driven but also marked by indicators of early B-cell activation and antibody production. Interferon responses during SARS-CoV-2 infection demonstrate unique patterns of dysregulated expression compared to other infectious and healthy states. Heterogeneous activation of coagulation and fibrinolytic pathways are present in early COVID-19, as are IL1 and JAK/STAT signaling pathways, which persist into late disease. Classifiers based on differentially expressed genes accurately distinguished SARS-CoV-2 infection from other acute illnesses (auROC 0.95 [95% CI 0.92–0.98]). The transcriptome in peripheral blood reveals both diverse and conserved components of the immune response in COVID-19 and provides for potential biomarker-based approaches to diagnosis.

Improved risk stratification and prognosis prediction in sepsis is a critical unmet need. Clinical severity scores and available assays such as blood lactate reflect global illness severity with suboptimal performance, and do not specifically reveal the underlying dysregulation of sepsis. Here, we present prognostic models for 30-day mortality generated independently by three scientific groups by using 12 discovery cohorts containing transcriptomic data collected from primarily community-onset sepsis patients. Predictive performance is validated in five cohorts of community-onset sepsis patients in which the models show summary AUROCs ranging from 0.765–0.89. Similar performance is observed in four cohorts of hospital-acquired sepsis. Combining the new gene-expression-based prognostic models with prior clinical severity scores leads to significant improvement in prediction of 30-day mortality as measured via AUROC and net reclassification improvement index These models provide an opportunity to develop molecular bedside tests that may improve risk stratification and mortality prediction in patients with sepsis., Sepsis is characterized by deregulated host response to infection. Efficient therapies are still needed but a limitation for sepsis treatment is the heterogeneity in patients. Here Sweeney et al. generate prognostic models based on gene expression to improve risk stratification classification and prediction for 30-day mortality of patients.

Background Sepsis, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, is not a homogeneous disease but rather a syndrome encompassing many heterogeneous pathophysiologies. Patient factors including genetics predispose to poor outcomes, though current clinical characterizations fail to identify those at greatest risk of progression and mortality. Methods The Community Acquired Pneumonia and Sepsis Outcome Diagnostic study enrolled 1,152 subjects with suspected sepsis. We sequenced peripheral blood RNA of 129 representative subjects with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) or sepsis (SIRS due to infection), including 78 sepsis survivors and 28 sepsis non-survivors who had previously undergone plasma proteomic and metabolomic profiling. Gene expression differences were identified between sepsis survivors, sepsis non-survivors, and SIRS followed by gene enrichment pathway analysis. Expressed sequence variants were identified followed by testing for association with sepsis outcomes. Results The expression of 338 genes differed between subjects with SIRS and those with sepsis, primarily reflecting immune activation in sepsis. Expression of 1,238 genes differed with sepsis outcome: non-survivors had lower expression of many immune function-related genes. Functional genetic variants associated with sepsis mortality were sought based on a common disease-rare variant hypothesis. VPS9D1, whose expression was increased in sepsis survivors, had a higher burden of missense variants in sepsis survivors. The presence of variants was associated with altered expression of 3,799 genes, primarily reflecting Golgi and endosome biology. Conclusions The activation of immune response-related genes seen in sepsis survivors was muted in sepsis non-survivors. The association of sepsis survival with a robust immune response and the presence of missense variants in VPS9D1 warrants replication and further functional studies. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00258869. Registered on 23 November 2005. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13073-014-0111-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background The goal of many proteomics experiments is to determine the abundance of proteins in biological samples, and the variation thereof in various physiological conditions. High-throughput quantitative proteomics, specifically label-free LC-MS/MS, allows rapid measurement of thousands of proteins, enabling large-scale studies of various biological systems. Prior to analyzing these information-rich datasets, raw data must undergo several computational processing steps. We present a method to address one of the essential steps in proteomics data processing - the matching of peptide measurements across samples. Results We describe a novel method for label-free proteomics data alignment with the ability to incorporate previously unused aspects of the data, particularly ion mobility drift times and product ion information. We compare the results of our alignment method to PEPPeR and OpenMS, and compare alignment accuracy achieved by different versions of our method utilizing various data characteristics. Our method results in increased match recall rates and similar or improved mismatch rates compared to PEPPeR and OpenMS feature-based alignment. We also show that the inclusion of drift time and product ion information results in higher recall rates and more confident matches, without increases in error rates. Conclusions Based on the results presented here, we argue that the incorporation of ion mobility drift time and product ion information are worthy pursuits. Alignment methods should be flexible enough to utilize all available data, particularly with recent advancements in experimental separation methods.