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Considers the dilemma imposed by the cyclical majority problem in which an imputation set like (½, ½, 0), (0, ½, ½) precludes obtaining a single peaked preference set. Argument that the cyclically unstable outcome associated with such problems as how to divide one dollar among three persons operating with a majority rule is more of a mathematical dilemma than one ineluctably produced by individual utility maximizing behavior; Reason why the (½, ½, ½) imputation has been criticized as being stable.

If the pattern of fertility, mortality and interregional migration exhibited by the United States population during 1950-60 were to continue in the future, the proportions of persons in the various age groups and regions would fluctuate from decade to decade. These fluctuations would become less marked with time, however, and eventually all the proportions would stabilize at certain fixed values. This collection of values may be called a stable age by region composition corresponding to the given schedule of fertility, mortality and migration. The same phenomenon may be observed when individuals move between socioeconomic categories as, for example, socioeconomic status or educational attainment levels. The substantial differences between these various situations conceal remarkable similarities. In each case the continued operation of schedules of fertility, mortality and mobility between categories may result in a stable composition. The purpose of this paper is to shed some light on the nature of these stable compositions, on the interrelation between their various components, and on their relation to the patterns of fertility, mortality and mobility which generate them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method of decomposition is applied to rates of natural increase in order to elucidate the role played by age composition in the growth of populations. A population's age distribution and fertility schedule are contrasted to those in a "stationary" population having the same mortality rates and having a fertility schedule equal to that of the observed population divided by its net reproduction rate. In this manner it is shown that about one-quarter to one-third of the growth of most current high-growth populations can be attributed to non-stationarity of their age distributions. This fraction will rise, as it has in most industrialized countries, if fertility is reduced and age distributions become middle-heavy. In projections of the 1963 Venezuelan female population with fertility rates declining by 2% and 1% annually, more than half of the growth (in numbers) that occurs prior to zero-growth attainment is contributed by non-stationarity of its intervening age distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Place-of-birth-by-residence data, tabulated by age and sex for the same areal units in two successive censuses, have been used to estimate intercensal net migration flows. However, a fuller use of the same data permits the estimation of place-to-place flows. This paper describes a method for estimating intercensal migration streams from place-of-birth- by-residence data and illustrates its application with data on the white female native population of the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence from Puerto Rico supports the hypothesis that the continuation rate has a decay form rather than a reciprocal form. As indicated in the literature, there was evidence that the continuation rate tends to vary not only with time but also with the age of the patient at acceptance. It was found that the fit of the continuation function could be improved substantially by making the effective decay rate an exponential function of age. Theoretical reasoning was presented to justify these empirical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The duration of time between two successive births or between marriage and first birth is an indicator of the level of fertility of a couple. Potter and Parker (1964) and Singh (1961, 1967) have suggested the Type I Geometric as a distribution appropriate Or representing the length of interval to first conception leading to a live birth. Potter and Parker estimated the parameters of this distribution with the help of the first two moments. Majumdar and Sheps (1970) pointed out the limitations of these moment estimates and gave a method to Obtain maximum likelihood estimates, based on formulas which are too involved for solution without the help of a computer. Singh proposed a continuous probability distribution based on another set of assumptions for the above situation. He outlined a method to obtain best asymptotically normal estimates of the parameters. These estimates are obtained after several iterations starting from any set of consistent estimates. The objective of this paper is to show that it is relatively easier to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the continuous model, which describes the data on duration to first conception as well as does the discrete model. Simple expressions for the moment and maximum likelihood estimates with the corresponding covariance matrices are obtained. Application is made to three sets of data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduction of population growth rates through family planning programs is being attempted in many of the developing nations of the world. This activity lends itself aptly to mathematical modeling. Building from the well-known difference equation model of population growth, a model is constructed which integrates population dynamics, program activities, and resource consumption. The model may be used predictively to assess the outcome of various program activities. Alternatively, it may be used to determine the pattern of activities which yields the greatest reduction in births under the projected resource constraints. A further use of the model is the identification of the parameters to which predictions are most sensitive; such information provides valuable insights to those gathering the input data. The model is here applied to a family planning program currently in progress. An evaluation of the feasibility of that program's goals is provided, as well as information on limiting resources, data sensitivity, and the most important ages for contraceptive acceptance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New procedures are developed in this article for estimating parameters of the Pearsonian Type I curve which are particularly adaptive to factors influencing the pattern of age-specific fertility rates. It is shown that with this model the number of parameters required for the graduation and simulation of these rates can be reduced to only three--total fertility rate, mean and modal ages of fertility. The reduction in the number of fertility parameters offers considerable operational and analytical advantages, and makes the Pearsonian Type I curve particularly appropriate for the construction of a parametric model for fertility projections. In light of the results of empirical tests based on fertility data for Canada, the model's potential for birth projections appears quite promising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the family size utility function (FSUF), which portrays the relative strengths of preferences among family sizes, as held by an individual, couple, or group. Derivable from the FSUF are indications of motivation to seek or avoid additional children, indications which may prove useful for understanding fertility decisions and for predicting completed fertility. A method is described for assessing the FSUF with data obtainable by interview surveys, and case studies of actual FSUF's are presented. The article concludes with theoretical and empirical questions for further investigation of the FSUF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stable population model is used to establish formulas expressing the effects of mortality change on population growth rates, birth rates, and age composition. The change in the intrinsic growth rate is shown to be quite accurately approximated by the average decline in age-specific death rates between age zero and the mean age at childbearing in the stable population. This change is essentially independent of the initial level of fertility in the population. Changes' in birth rates and age composition are shown to be simple functions of the age pattern of cumulative changes in mortality rates relative to an appropriately defined "neutral" standard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several authors have argued that increased work opportunities for women have helped to produce a reduction in the average age at marriage in the United States. This paper tests this proposition on data for the 100 largest SMSA's in 1960. Using ordinary least-squares regression, we find that areas of relatively attractive female employment opportunities had relatively low proportions of women ever married in the age interval 22-24. Other variables significantly related to the proportion married in an SMSA are its sex ratio, percent Catholic, and number of inhabitants. A decline in the sex ratio and improvements in female employment opportunities appear to have been equally influential in producing declines in proportions married between 1960 and 1970. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A population consisting of women who have conceived before a time t ignores all women whose conception time exceeds t. Such a population is considered as a truncated population, and the samples are called truncated samples. Under the assumption that fecundability among women varies according to a Beta distribution (with parameters a and b), the distribution of conception times in a truncated population can be considered as truncated Type I geometric. This paper presents an algorithm to obtain the moment and maximum likelihood estimates of a and b from the truncated samples. Large sample properties of the estimators are also studied. Examples using the Hutterite and the Princeton Fertility Survey data are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An initially stable population of women is assumed to shift its reproductive behavior to a different level either abruptly or in a prescribed gradual fashion. A closed-form solution which is exact up to about 30 years after the reproductive adjustment is found for the resulting birth trajectory. Exact expressions are also found for the long-time asymptotic behavior of both the birth trajectory and the total population size when the shift in reproductive behavior is to bare replacement level. Accurate approximations to these asymptotic results are then derived and used to illustrate why a growing population continues to grow even after shifting to bare replacement reproductive behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents information on an experiment designed to ascertain empirically the probabilities of intransitivities in social preference orderings determined by majority rule. Mutually exclusive alternatives presented.

Because of bias of unknown sign and extent introduced by age misreporting when calculating the singulate mean age of marriage in the usual manner, Van de Walle has suggested a fairly robust estimator based on stable population structure. Unfortunately not much is known about the properties of this estimator. Various demographers have argued informally that it indeed estimates the SMAM; others feel that it instead estimates the mean age of marriage in a cohort, the mean age of marriage in the stable population, or the singulate median age of marriage. In this paper the properties of this estimator are examined. Further, extensions of the Van de Walle estimator based on regression are shown to be significantly superior to the estimator alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A stable population, such that the total birthrate B(t) = Boerot, is abruptly altered by modifying the age-specific birth rate, m(x). The survivor function remains unaltered. The modified population ultimately settles down to a stable behavior, such that B(t) = B1er1t. It is shown that B1/Bo = (Ro-R1)/¿e1(ro-r1)RoZ1], where Ro, R1 are the net reproduction rates before and after the change, and Za = expected age giving birth for the stable population after the change. The age structure and transients resulting from the change are also described. The effect of an abrupt change in the survivor function l(x) is also investigated for the simple case where the change is caused by altering l(x) to e-lambdaxl(x). It is shown that the above ratio becomes B1/Bo = N1/No = [1 - zota o e-kxg(x)dx]/Z1lambda, where N refers to the numbers in the population, k = ro + lambda, and g(x) = m(x)l(x), the value before the change. A measure for the reproductive worth of the population is also established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A lethal defect-wear model of mortality is presented which rationalizes the assumption of independent risks when death may be due to more than a single condition. Under this model, it is shown how competing risk theory and standard categorical data methods may be merged in a unified approach to the analysis of multiple-cause mortality data. The methodology is used to analyze linkages among diseases in the mortality data and evaluate the implication of the elimination of patterns of morbid states for multiple-cause mortality data from deaths occurring in 1969 in North Carolina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with a further analysis of the stable equivalent population for human populations. It first shows that the arithmetic difference between the size of the stable equivalent population and the actual population captures the total prospective contribution of age composition to the growth of the present population" if fertility and mortality rates are held constant at their current levels. The second part of the paper examined Fisher's reproductive value function and investigates the location of maxima in relation to alternative values of the intrinsic growth rate. One conclusion which follows from this analysis is that, contrary to what has been discovered by others in specific examples, the reproductive value function can possess a global maximum in the first one or two years of life, provided the intrinsic rate of population growth is sufficiently negative. This principle is illustrated by reference to reproductive value functions calculated from the recent experience of U.S. females. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the effect of mother's time spent out of the labor force, and presumably in the home, on the "production" of child quality, where child quality is measured by intelligence (iq), level of schooling attained, and market earning power. The results indicate that mother's home time is most effective in producing (male) child quality for mothers who have attained relatively high levels of schooling. The results suggest that education programs which devote equal school resources to all (male) children do not necessarily provide equal educational opportunity and that the influence of family background on economic success is indirect, operating through home investments in children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, health care, and family planning program activity on patient enrollment rates are estimated for 1969 and 1971. Two program activity variables (agencies and clinic locations) have significant, positive net effects in both years. The effect of agencies changed little between 1969 and 1971, and it is the strongest effect in both years. The effect of clinic locations more than doubled between 1969 and 1971, partly due to increased demand. The direct effects of the demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables are not large, but many of the demographic and socioeconomic variables have substantial indirect effects via health care program activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies are used to produce classifications of births and exposure to births by planning status for real and synthetic marriage cohorts, covering the experience of the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. Indices of reproductive input (three ends, three means, and three conditions) and of conventional reproductive output (such as the mean number of unintended births) are derived from these observations. The outputs are expressed as deterministic equations in terms of the inputs; this permits the study of the structure of fertility determination. The model provides a parsimonious description of the sources of change in fertility and an instrument of possible use in policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To influence the number of children ever born to a woman, socioeconomic variables must operate through behavioral and biological mechanisms such as the age at marriage, the level of fertility in the absence of deliberate fertility control, and the level of control exerted to reduce fertility within marriage. In this paper, we propose a new measure of cumulative fertility which is standardized for the age-fecundity relationship and for exposure to the risk of conception associated with duration of marriage. A simple model of fertility behavior which incorporates some of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic factors may affect fertility is developed and applied to data from the United States to demonstrate the properties of alternative measures of family size. The results indicate that use of the new measure allows more precise estimates of socioeconomic fertility relationships than would be obtained with children ever born or by sample stratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on stable population theory, a mathematical relationship is developed between the intrinsic rate of increase (r) of a population and the ratio (Z) of the average number of younger sisters ever born to the average number of older sisters ever born, for a random sample of women in the population. This mathematical formula is then converted into a technique for estimating r from data on numbers of sisters. The extent to which the technique may be generalizable to actual populations is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents, tests, applies, and compares methods that utilize age data collected at consecutive censuses to examine and adjust for age and coverage errors. The Demeny-Shorter method, for example, was devised for this purpose, and its flexibility in regard to census coverage errors is examined. The Demeny-Shorter method is found difficult to apply directly, so a method based on the same idea as the Demeny-Shorter method but utilizing age data from three, instead of two, successive censuses is presented and discussed as a possible alternative. This three-census method is applied to data from Turkey's censuses and, in some cases, found to be better than the Demeny-Shorter method, because the former allows for and estimates the likely changes in census coverage and different patterns of age errors in successive censuses. Unfortunately, the three-census method cannot be applied to data from most developing countries on account of a lack of the requisite series of censuses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By the conception of an underlying multiplicative model for cross-classified data, a statistical method for the adjustment of rates is suggested. This method rests upon the multiplicative definition of interaction in cross-classifications and can lead to results different from those obtained from the more usual methods (e.g., Kitagawa, 1964). Comparisons with alternative approaches are made, and illustrative applications to data are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that the intrinsic rates of growth derived separately for the males and females in a population, when one assumes the continuation of their respective mortality and fertility experiences, usually turn out to be different. Noting that the phenomenon of human reproduction is a product of the cooperation between the two sexes, we have attempted in this paper to define the sex-age-specific fertility rates as a function not only of age but also of time, where the latter is implicitly introduced in the model through the sex composition of the reproductive population. It has been shown that a stable model can then be defined based on such changing sex-age-specific fertility rates and given sets of unchanging mortality rates. The fertility rates stabilize with time, and the common intrinsic rates of growth for the two sexes are found to lie in the interval generated by the corresponding rates of the two one-sex models. Several other interesting relationships among the parameters of this model have been presented in the paper. Among other alternatives, a least square solution has been presented for the values of sex-age-specific fertility rates that are minimally discrepant with the observed rates but are consistent in terms of the parametric estimates they generate. It is interesting to note that a relatively modest adjustment in the sex-age-specific fertility rates is all that it takes to eliminate the inconsistencies generated by the sepafate one-sex models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An evaluation of the Brass childhood mortality estimates under conditions of declining mortality shows them to overestimate current mortality. Error increases as the rate of mortality decline increases, as the childhood age up to which cumulative mortality is being estimated increases, and as age at onset of childbearing decreases. We use the results to develop a method for correcting the Brass estimates for the effects of quasistability. The method requires an estimate of the rate of mortality decline within the population in addition to information on the pattern of childbearing in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss two special cases of population dynamics with changing vital rates subject to the constraint NRR = 1 and consider the specifics of ergodicity and stationarity. By restricting the number of age groups to two, we can make explicit the way weak ergodicity works. When mortality is constant and the period NRR = 1, a life-table stationary population eventually results; everything of demographic interest (except age-specific fertility and the cohort NRR) is asymptotically constant. With changing mortality, but both period and cohort NRR = 1, only weak ergodicity holds, and everything changes over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces an analytic framework that can be used to assess the relationships between individual movement differentials and place characteristics, on the one hand, and aggregate mobility levels and city-suburb population change (in size or composition), on the other. Application of this framework using census data for individual metropolitan areas allows the analyst to decompose population changes due to net migration into contributing mobility streams and their component rates which are subject to unique community and individual influences. The paper provides both theoretical and empirical rationale for the framework, illustrates its use with 1970 census data, and discusses its implications for empirical research on city-suburb population redistribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summarizes some old results and proves some new results on the effects of ambiguous strategies in multidimensional models of policy formation. Definition of reasonable classes of probability measures from which candidates can select their ambiguous platforms; Nature of individual preferences over ambiguous strategies; Effects on the location of an equilibrium of the introduction of fixed amounts of ambiguity.

The "two-sex problem" is one of attempting to preserve the essential character of male and female rates of marriage (or birth), since the expression of those rates is influenced both by the age-sex composition of the population and the underlying age-sex schedule of preferences. The present paper focuses on marriage and advances a theoretically based, realistic, and conceptually simple solution. In the continuous case, where exact male and female ages are used, equation (11) provides a mathematical relationship which equates the sum of the male and female marriage propensities of the observed population with that of the model. When discrete age intervals are used, the two-sex consistency condition is given by equation (14) which equates observed and model population rates calculated using the harmonic means of the number of persons in the relevant male and female age groups. The harmonic mean consistency condition is shown to be fully sensitive to the competitive nature of the "marriage market." When compared with alternative approaches to the two-sex problem in the context of data for Sweden, 1961-64, the simple harmonic mean method yields results fairly similar to those of the other methods. None of the two-sex methods do particularly well at predicting the actual distribution of marriages, however. The likely reason is that the underlying marriage preferences changed, a circumstance which emphasizes the importance of carefully conceptualizing how observed behavior can be decomposed into the effects produced by age-sex composition and those produced by the underlying preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the question of whether the crude birth rate (CBR) can be used as a proxy for more refined fertility measures in cross-national models of fertility determinants. It responds to a recent claim that the CBR represents an inappropriate fertility measure for these purposes. In the analysis, several strategies are used to assess the degree to which results based on the CBR are sensitive to lack of adjustment for age structure. The paper concludes that using the CBR as a proxy has minor and unimportant effects upon conclusions regarding fertility determinants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on administrative and survey data as well as data-based assumptions about the bounds on alien address reporting, this study provides estimates of the lower and upper bounds for the cumulative net emigration rates, by country and area of origin, of the FY1971 cohort of legal immigrants to the United States as of January 1979. The merged data indicate that the cumulative net emigration rate for the entire cohort could have been as high as 50 percent. Canadian emigration was probably between 51 and 55 percent. Emigration rates for legal immigrants from Central America, the Caribbean (excluding Cuba), and South America were at least as high as 50 percent, and could have been as high as 70 percent. Emigration rates for Koreans and Chinese could not have exceeded 22 percent over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standard proofs of the ergodic theorems of demography rely on theorems borrowed from positive matrix theory, tauberian theory, and the theory of time-inhomogeneous Markov matrices. These proofs are efficient and expedient, but they give little direct insight into the mechanism that causes ergodicity. This paper proposes a simple and unified proof of the two ergodic theorems. It is shown that the birth dynamics can be decomposed into a smoothing process that progressively levels out past fluctuations in the birth sequence and a reshaping process that accounts for current period-to-period changes in vital rates. The smoothing process, which causes the birth sequence to lose information on its past shape, is shown to be the ergodic mechanism behind both theorems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to provide a complete self-contained exposition of estimating life tables with covariates through the use of hazards models, and (b) to illustrate this technique with a substantive analysis of child mortality in Sri Lanka, thereby demonstrating that World Fertility Survey data are a valuable source for the study of child mortality. We show that life tables with covariates can be easily estimated with standard computer packages designed for analysis of contingency tables. The substantive analysis confirms and supplements an earlier study of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka by Meegama. Those factors found to be strongly associated with mortality are mother's and father's education, time period of birth, urban/rural/estate residence, ethnicity, sex, birth order, age of the mother at the birth, and type of toilet facility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "marriage squeeze," or the effect on marriage of an imbalance between the numbers of males and females, has been seen as having a great influence on contemporary marriage behavior. Nonetheless, the literature does not contain a clear definition of exactly what a marriage squeeze is and contains few quantitative estimates of its impact on marriage. The present article provides a precise definition of the marriage squeeze in equation (2), and applies it to measure both artificially produced marriage squeezes in two-sex nuptiality stable populations and the experience of the United States during the period 1950-1990. The marriage squeeze is shown to be capable of producing significant changes in both the level and distribution of marriage, and it appears to be having such an impact in some contemporary Third World societies. For developed countries in general and for the United States in particular, the marriage squeeze exerts little influence on the level of marriage but has a considerable effect on the distribution of marriages. The U.S. age-sex composition of the year 1978, compared to that of the year 1951, is shown to imply a 0.54 year decrease in the male mean age at marriage and a 0.53 year increase in the female mean age at marriage, as well as an 18 percent reduction in the variance of the male ages at marriage and a 33 percent increase in the variance of the female ages. The social and economic implications of such changes have yet to be fully explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. In an earlier paper we argued that the method itself cannot be properly characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In that paper we presented several new techniques for estimating the number of households and average number of persons per household (PPH). However, the testing of these new techniques was limited by the lack of census results against which the estimates could be compared. Complete census data on population, households, and PPH are now available and can be used to test alternate estimation techniques. In this paper we replicate the tests reported in our earlier paper using 1980 census data for Florida's 67 counties. These tests provide further evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than previously used techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The act of evaluation requires an expenditure of resources. In Part 1 of this paper, we present a simple decision tree model borrowed from operations research to provide a conceptual framework for considering whether or not lo commit such resources. In Part II. once the evaluation is carried out, we address the problem of evaluating the evaluation as a vehicle for producing useful information to decisionmakers. Evaluation inputs, processes, and outcomes are defined and discussed within the context of comprehensive evaluation of evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article investigates the differences in the abilities of dyslexic and non-dyslexic children in mathematics. It has been found in several research that dyslexic children have adequate skills in mathematics. Despite having these skill dyslexic children perform poorly in mathematics than their non-dyslexic counterparts. The article assesses the differences by comparing performances on tests of abstract reasoning, mathematical computation, and memory. Failure in arithmetic may be caused by reversals, inversions, transposals and substitutions which persist in numerals as well as letters in the dyslexic child. The children in the article are students from three independent schools in Baltimore County. Four groups of 27 children are selected in the article. The dyslexic, high-reasoning group and the dyslexic but average-reasoning group were selected from the population of an independent school for children identified as dyslexic by means of psycho-educational evaluation which included a developmental and family history. The results of the article suggest that there is a group of dyslexic children with similar abstract reasoning ability to that of mathematically gifted children.

This study examines two of the four determinants of mediation effectiveness identified in Kochan and Jick's (1978) model of the public sector mediation process: source of impact and situational factors. Questionnaire data were directly obtained from 240 Bangladesh management and union officials. Discriminant analysis identified several sources of impasse for both union and management groups, but no situational factors were found to accurately predict case settlement. Results are discussed in terms of U.S. public sector mediation research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Historical File, a model of wildcat strike incidence is estimated. The model supports the hypothesis that the incidence of wildcat strikes is related to the underlying relationship between the parties. In addition, national economic and political trends, industry-specific factors, and firm-specific factors have an impact on strike activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-probability high-consequence events play an important role is assessing the risk of catastrophic loss. Their risk profiles, however, can be difficult to obtain. This paper obtains the risk profiles of low-probability high-consequence events where the final consequence results from a number of intermediate events. Called composite events, these events occur, for example, in accidents releasing hazardous material. The structure of composite events is described and risk profile equations developed, both on a per-event and per-annum basis. The many extremely low valued terms, especially in the tail of the risk profile, make calculation nontrivial. Accordingly, algorithm are developed to compute these equations. In addition, formulae for means and variances are obtained, and an illustrative example is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the computational analysis of the Bayesian Paradigm. Determination of the traditional applied probability focus to call structural mathematics contrasts; Association of typical statistical focus on inferential mathematics; Terms of Bernouilli variables or perhaps multinomial variables; Increase in sophistication of probability models and the statistical interference.

Industry and government routinely solve deterministic mathematical programs for planning and schelduling purposes, some involving thousands of variables with a linear or non-linear objective and inequality constraints. The solutions obtained are often ignored because they do not properly hedge against future contingencies. It is relatively easy to reformulate models to include uncertainty. The bottleneck has been (and is) our capability to solve them. The time is now ripe for finding a way to do so. To this end, we describe in this paper how large-scale system methods for solving multi-staged systems, such as Bender's Decomposition, high-speed sampling or Monte Carlo simulation, and parallel proccesors can be combined to solve some important planning problems involving uncertainty. For example, parallel processors may make it possible to come to better grips with the fundamental problems of planning, scheduling, design, and control of complex systems such as the economy, an industrial enterprise, an energy system, a water-resource system, military models for planning-and-control, decisions about investment, innovation, employment, and health-delivery systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a parallelization of the simplex method for linear programming. Current implementations of the simplex method on sequential computers are based on a triangular factorization of the inverse of the current basis. An alternative decomposition designed for parallel computation, called the quadrant interlocking factorization, has previously been proposed for solving linear systems of equations. This research presents the theoretical justification and algorithms required to implement this new factorization in a simplex-based linear programming system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of interest is to partition a collection of machines into production cells so that a given set of part-manufacturing requirements may be carried out optimally. In the present case transitions of parts between different cells is the only measure of machine partition goodness. The present formulation and approximate solution of this optimization problem is best described as one of successive approximations or as a one-at-a-time method. An initial cellular structure is taken and an easy part assignment optimization routine executed. With the part assignment fixed, a heuristic is employed to find an improved cell structure. These bipartite iterations continue until a convergence criterion is satisfied. Several small computer examples are provided and the straightforward requirements for large problem adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]