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Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third-most-common cancer worldwide and its rates are increasing. Elevated body mass index (BMI) is an established risk factor for CRC, although the molecular mechanisms behind this association remain unclear. Using the Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we aimed to investigate the mediating effects of putative biomarkers and other CRC risk factors in the association between BMI and CRC. Methods We selected as mediators biomarkers of established cancer-related mechanisms and other CRC risk factors for which a plausible association with obesity exists, such as inflammatory biomarkers, glucose homeostasis traits, lipids, adipokines, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), sex hormones, 25-hydroxy-vitamin D, smoking, physical activity (PA) and alcohol consumption. We used inverse-variance weighted MR in the main univariable analyses and performed sensitivity analyses (weighted-median, MR–Egger, Contamination Mixture). We used multivariable MR for the mediation analyses. Results Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with CRC risk [odds ratio per SD (5 kg/m2) = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08–1.24, P -value = 1.4 × 10−5] and robustly associated with nearly all potential mediators. Genetically predicted IGF1, fasting insulin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, PA and alcohol were associated with CRC risk. Evidence for attenuation was found for IGF1 [explained 7% (95% CI: 2–13%) of the association], smoking (31%, 4–57%) and PA (7%, 2–11%). There was little evidence for pleiotropy, although smoking was bidirectionally associated with BMI and instruments were weak for PA. Conclusions The effect of BMI on CRC risk is possibly partly mediated through plasma IGF1, whereas the attenuation of the BMI–CRC association by smoking and PA may reflect confounding and shared underlying mechanisms rather than mediation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) with clinically relevant prostate cancer as a primary endpoint, and the association of genetically predicted IGF-I with aggressive prostate cancer is not known. We aimed to investigate the associations of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 concentrations with overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer. Methods Prospective analysis of biomarkers using the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset (up to 20 studies, 17 009 prostate cancer cases, including 2332 aggressive cases). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. For IGF-I, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was undertaken using instruments identified using UK Biobank (158 444 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 85 554 cases, including 15 167 aggressive cases). Additionally, we used colocalization to rule out confounding by linkage disequilibrium. Results In observational analyses, IGF-I was positively associated with risks of overall (OR per 1 SD = 1.09: 95% CI 1.07, 1.11), aggressive (1.09: 1.03, 1.16) and possibly early-onset disease (1.11: 1.00, 1.24); associations were similar in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.07: 1.00, 1.15; 1.10: 1.01, 1.20; and 1.13; 0.98, 1.30, respectively). Colocalization also indicated a shared signal for IGF-I and prostate cancer (PP4: 99%). Men with higher IGF-II (1.06: 1.02, 1.11) and IGFBP-3 (1.08: 1.04, 1.11) had higher risks of overall prostate cancer, whereas higher IGFBP-1 was associated with a lower risk (0.95: 0.91, 0.99); these associations were attenuated following adjustment for IGF-I. Conclusions These findings support the role of IGF-I in the development of prostate cancer, including for aggressive disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The relation between blood pressure and kidney cancer risk is well established but complex and different study designs have reported discrepant findings on the relative importance of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). In this study, we sought to describe the temporal relation between diastolic and SBP with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) risk in detail.Methods: Our study involved two prospective cohorts: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study and UK Biobank, including >700 000 participants and 1692 incident RCC cases. Risk analyses were conducted using flexible parametric survival models for DBP and SBP both separately as well as with mutuality adjustment and then adjustment for extended risk factors. We also carried out univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses (DBP: ninstruments = 251, SBP: ninstruments = 213) to complement the analyses of measured DBP and SBP.Results: In the univariable analysis, we observed clear positive associations with RCC risk for both diastolic and SBP when measured ≥5 years before diagnosis and suggestive evidence for a stronger risk association in the year leading up to diagnosis. In mutually adjusted analysis, the long-term risk association of DBP remained, with a hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation increment 10 years before diagnosis (HR10y) of 1.20 (95% CI: 1.10-1.30), whereas the association of SBP was attenuated (HR10y: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.91-1.10). In the complementary multivariable MR analysis, we observed an odds ratio for a 1-SD increment (ORsd) of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.08-1.67) for genetically predicted DBP and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56-0.88) for genetically predicted SBP.Conclusion: The results of this observational and MR study are consistent with an important role of DBP in RCC aetiology. The relation between SBP and RCC risk was less clear but does not appear to be independent of DBP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Glycemic traits-such as hyperinsulinemia, hyperglycemia, and type 2 diabetes-have been associated with higher colorectal cancer risk in observational studies; however, causality of these associations is uncertain. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal effects of fasting insulin, 2-hour glucose, fasting glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and type 2 diabetes with colorectal cancer.Methods: Genome-wide association study summary data were used to identify genetic variants associated with circulating levels of fasting insulin (n = 34), 2-hour glucose (n = 13), fasting glucose (n = 70), HbA1c (n = 221), and type 2 diabetes (n = 268). Using 2-sample MR, we examined these variants in relation to colorectal cancer risk (48 214 case patient and 64 159 control patients).Results: In inverse-variance models, higher fasting insulin levels increased colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] per 1-SD = 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 2.36). We found no evidence of any effect of 2-hour glucose (OR per 1-SD = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.86 to 1.21) or fasting glucose (OR per 1-SD = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.88 to 1.23) concentrations on colorectal cancer risk. Genetic liability to type 2 diabetes (OR per 1-unit increase in log odds = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.07) and higher HbA1c levels (OR per 1-SD = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.19) increased colorectal cancer risk, although these findings may have been biased by pleiotropy. Higher HbA1c concentrations increased rectal cancer risk in men (OR per 1-SD = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.40), but not in women.Conclusions: Our results support a causal effect of higher fasting insulin, but not glucose traits or type 2 diabetes, on increased colorectal cancer risk. This suggests that pharmacological or lifestyle interventions that lower circulating insulin levels may be beneficial in preventing colorectal tumorigenesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most studies of associations between child growth and cognitive ability were based on size at one or two ages and a single measure of cognition. We aimed to characterize different aspects of early growth and their associations with cognitive outcomes in childhood through adolescence.Methods: In a sample of 12 368 Belarusian children born at term, we examined associations of length/height and weight trajectories over the first 6.5 years of life with cognitive ability at 6.5 and 16 years and its change over time. We estimated growth trajectories using two random-effects models-the SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation to model overall patterns of growth and the Jenss-Bayley to distinguish growth in infancy from post infancy. Cognitive ability was measured using the Wechsler Abbreviated Scales of Intelligence at 6.5 years and the computerized NeuroTrax test at 16 years.Results: Higher length/height between birth and 6.5 years was associated with higher cognitive scores at 6.5 and 16 years {2.7 points [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1, 3.2] and 2.5 points [95% CI: 1.9, 3.0], respectively, per standard deviation [SD] increase}. A 1-SD delay in the childhood height-growth spurt was negatively associated with cognitive scores [-2.4 (95% CI: -3.0, -1.8) at age 6.5; -2.2 (95% CI: -2.7, -1.6) at 16 years]. Birth size and post-infancy growth velocity were positively associated with cognitive scores at both ages. Height trajectories were not associated with the change in cognitive score. Similar results were observed for weight trajectories.Conclusions: Among term infants, the overall size, timing of the childhood growth spurt, size at birth and post-infancy growth velocity were all associated with cognitive ability at early-school age and adolescence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence concerning the potential repurposing of antihypertensives for Alzheimer's disease prevention is inconclusive. We used Mendelian randomization, which can be more robust to confounding by indication and patient characteristics, to investigate the effects of lowering systolic blood pressure, via the protein targets of different antihypertensive drug classes, on Alzheimer's disease.Methods: We used summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of systolic blood pressure and Alzheimer's disease in a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. We identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that mimic the action of antihypertensive protein targets and estimated the effect of lowering systolic blood pressure on Alzheimer's disease in three ways: (i) combining the protein targets of antihypertensive drug classes, (ii) combining all protein targets and (iii) without consideration of the protein targets.Results: There was limited evidence that lowering systolic blood pressure, via the protein targets of antihypertensive drug classes, affected Alzheimer's disease risk. For example, the protein targets of calcium channel blockers had an odds ratio (OR) per 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure of 1.53 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94 to 2.49; p = 0.09; SNPs = 17]. We also found limited evidence for an effect when combining all protein targets (OR per 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.56; p = 0.41; SNPs = 59) and without consideration of the protein targets (OR per 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.13; p = 0.45; SNPs = 153).Conclusions: Mendelian randomization suggests that lowering systolic blood pressure via the protein targets of antihypertensive drugs is unlikely to affect the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. Consequently, if specific antihypertensive drug classes do affect the risk of Alzheimer's disease, they may not do so via systolic blood pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evidence that fetal life and early infancy are "critical" or "sensitive" ages for later development of cardiometabolic disease is based on flawed methods for comparing different age periods. Moreover, most previous studies have limited their focus to weight gain, rather than growth in length/height or body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2). We undertook a secondary analysis of data from the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (1996–2010), a birth cohort study nested within a large cluster-randomized trial in the Republic of Belarus, that had repeated measurements of weight and length/height taken from birth to 11.5 years of age. We used mixed-effects linear models to analyze associations of changes in standardized weight, length/height, and body mass index during 5 age periods (conception to birth, birth to age 3 months, ages 3–12 months, ages 12 months–6.5 years, and ages 6.5–11.5 years) with fasting glucose, insulin, insulin resistance, β-cell function, and adiponectin at age 11.5 years. We observed strong associations between the metabolic markers and all 3 growth measures, with the largest magnitudes being observed during the latest age period (ages 6.5–11.5 years) and negligible associations during gestation and the first year of life. Later age periods appear more "sensitive" than earlier periods to the adverse metabolic association with rapid growth in childhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prostate cancer is the second most common male cancer worldwide, but there is substantial geographical variation, suggesting a potential role for modifiable risk factors in prostate carcinogenesis.Methods: We identified previously reported prostate cancer risk factors from the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF)'s systematic appraisal of the global evidence (2018). We assessed whether each identified risk factor was causally associated with risk of overall (79 148 cases and 61 106 controls) or aggressive (15 167 cases and 58 308 controls) prostate cancer using Mendelian randomization (MR) based on genome-wide association-study summary statistics from the PRACTICAL and GAME-ON/ELLIPSE consortia. We assessed evidence for replication in UK Biobank (7844 prostate-cancer cases and 204 001 controls).Results: WCRF identified 57 potential risk factors, of which 22 could be instrumented for MR analyses using single nucleotide polymorphisms. For overall prostate cancer, we identified evidence compatible with causality for the following risk factors (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation increase; 95% confidence interval): accelerometer-measured physical activity, OR = 0.49 (0.33-0.72; P = 0.0003); serum iron, OR = 0.92 (0.86-0.98; P = 0.007); body mass index (BMI), OR = 0.90 (0.84-0.97; P = 0.003); and monounsaturated fat, OR = 1.11 (1.02-1.20; P = 0.02). Findings in our replication analyses in UK Biobank were compatible with our main analyses (albeit with wide confidence intervals). In MR analysis, height was positively associated with aggressive-prostate-cancer risk: OR = 1.07 (1.01-1.15; P = 0.03).Conclusions: The results for physical activity, serum iron, BMI, monounsaturated fat and height are compatible with causality for prostate cancer. The results suggest that interventions aimed at increasing physical activity may reduce prostate-cancer risk, although interventions to change other risk factors may have negative consequences on other diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We conducted a prospective cohort study of the Clinical Practice Research Database to estimate rates of varenicline and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) prescribing and the relative effects on smoking cessation, and mental health.Methods: We used multivariable logistic regression, propensity score matched regression, and instrumental variable analysis. Exposure was varenicline or NRT prescription. Mental disorders were bipolar, depression, neurotic disorder, schizophrenia, or prescriptions of antidepressants, antipsychotics, hypnotics/anxiolytics, mood stabilizers. Outcomes were smoking cessation, and incidence of neurotic disorder, depression, prescription of antidepressants, or hypnotics/anxiolytics. Follow-ups were 3, 6, and 9 months, and at 1, 2, and 4 years.Results: In all patients, NRT and varenicline prescribing declined during the study period. Seventy-eight thousand four hundred fifty-seven smokers with mental disorders aged ≥18 years were prescribed NRT (N = 59 340) or varenicline (N = 19 117) from September 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015. Compared with smokers without mental disorders, smokers with mental disorders had 31% (95% CI: 29% to 33%) lower odds of being prescribed varenicline relative to NRT, but had 19% (95% CI: 15% to 24%) greater odds of quitting at 2 years when prescribed varenicline relative to NRT. Overall, varenicline was associated with decreased or similar odds of worse mental health outcomes than NRT in patients both with and without mental disorders, although there was some variation when analyses were stratified by mental disorder subgroup.Conclusions: Smoking cessation medication prescribing may be declining in primary care. Varenicline was more effective than NRT for smoking cessation in patients with mental disorders and there is not clear consistent evidence that varenicline is adversely associated with poorer mental health outcomes.Implications: Patients with mental disorders were less likely to be prescribed varenicline than NRT. We triangulated results from three analytical techniques. We found that varenicline was more effective than NRT for smoking cessation in patients with mental disorders. Varenicline was generally associated with similar or decreased odds of poorer mental health outcomes (ie, improvements in mental health) when compared with NRT. We report these findings cautiously as our data are observational and are at risk of confounding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Observational studies have suggested an association between circulating vitamin D concentrations [25(OH)D] and risk of breast and prostate cancer, which was not supported by a recent Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis comprising 15 748 breast and 22 898 prostate-cancer cases. Demonstrating causality has proven challenging and one common limitation of MR studies is insufficient power.Methods: We aimed to determine whether circulating concentrations of vitamin D are causally associated with the risk of breast and prostate cancer, by using summary-level data from the largest ever genome-wide association studies conducted on vitamin D (N = 73 699), breast cancer (Ncase = 122 977) and prostate cancer (Ncase = 79 148). We constructed a stronger instrument using six common genetic variants (compared with the previous four variants) and applied several two-sample MR methods.Results: We found no evidence to support a causal association between 25(OH)D and risk of breast cancer [OR per 25 nmol/L increase, 1.02 (95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.08), P = 0.47], oestrogen receptor (ER)+ [1.00 (0.94-1.07), P = 0.99] or ER- [1.02 (0.90-1.16), P = 0.75] subsets, prostate cancer [1.00 (0.93-1.07), P = 0.99] or the advanced subtype [1.02 (0.90-1.16), P = 0.72] using the inverse-variance-weighted method. Sensitivity analyses did not reveal any sign of directional pleiotropy.Conclusions: Despite its almost five-fold augmented sample size and substantially improved statistical power, our MR analysis does not support a causal effect of circulating 25(OH)D concentrations on breast- or prostate-cancer risk. However, we can still not exclude a modest or non-linear effect of vitamin D. Future studies may be designed to understand the effect of vitamin D in subpopulations with a profound deficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There are observational data suggesting an inverse association between circulating concentrations of sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. However, causality is uncertain and few studies have investigated this association by tumour receptor status. We aimed to investigate these associations under the causal framework of Mendelian randomization (MR).Methods: We used summary association estimates extracted from published genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses for SHBG and breast cancer, to perform two-sample MR analyses. Summary statistics were available for 122 977 overall breast cancer cases, of which 69 501 were estrogen receptor positive (ER+ve) and 21 468 were ER-ve, and 105 974 controls. To control for potential horizontal pleiotropy acting via body mass index (BMI), we performed multivariable inverse-variance weighted (IVW) MR as the main analysis, with the robustness of this approach further tested in sensitivity analyses.Results: The multivariable IVW MR analysis indicated a lower risk of overall (odds ratio [OR]: 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.90, 0.98; P: 0.006) and ER+ve (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.97; P: 0.003) breast cancer, and a higher risk of ER-ve disease (OR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.18; P: 0.047) per 25 nmol/L higher SHBG levels. Sensitivity analyses were consistent with the findings of the main analysis.Conclusions: We corroborated the previous literature evidence coming from observational studies for a potentially causal inverse association between SHBG concentrations and risk of ER+ve breast cancer, but our findings also suggested a potential novel positive association with ER-ve disease that warrants further investigation, given the low prior probability of being true. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Birth weight and weight gain in infancy and early childhood are commonly studied as risk factors for later cardiometabolic diseases. In this study, we explore methods for quantifying weight gain during different age periods and for comparing the magnitude of the associations with later blood pressure.Methods: Based on data from a birth cohort study nested within a large cluster-randomized trial with repeated measures of weight from birth to 16 years of age, we compared the results of four analytic approaches to assess sensitive periods of growth in relation to blood pressure at age 16 years.Results: Approaches based on z-scores of weight or weight gain velocity (both standardized for age and sex) or on regression-based conditional weight standardized residuals yielded more coherent results than an approach based on absolute weight gain velocity. Weight gain standardized by sex and age was positively associated with blood pressure at 16 years at all postnatal age periods, but the magnitude of association was larger during adolescence (11.5-16 years) than during earlier intervals (0-3 months, 3-12 months, 1-6.5 years or 6.5-11.5 years).Conclusions: Standardization of weight and weight gain by age and sex, or regression-based standardized residuals based on conditional weight, reflects relative gain and thus accounts for the rapid weight gains normally observed in early infancy and puberty. Adolescence appears to be a more sensitive period for relative weight gain effects on later blood pressure than earlier periods, even those of similar duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT), selenium supplementation (causing a median 114 μg/L increase in circulating selenium) did not lower overall prostate cancer risk, but increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer and type 2 diabetes. Mendelian randomization analysis uses genetic variants to proxy modifiable risk factors and can strengthen causal inference in observational studies. We constructed a genetic instrument comprising 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly (P < 5 × 10-8) associated with circulating selenium in genome-wide association studies. In a Mendelian randomization analysis of 72 729 men in the PRACTICAL Consortium (44 825 case subjects, 27 904 control subjects), 114 μg/L higher genetically elevated circulating selenium was not associated with prostate cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 1.13). In concordance with findings from SELECT, selenium was weakly associated with advanced (including high-grade) prostate cancer (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.49) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 0.97 to 1.43; in a type 2 diabetes genome-wide association study meta-analysis with up to 49 266 case subjects and 249 906 control subjects). Our Mendelian randomization analyses do not support a role for selenium supplementation in prostate cancer prevention and suggest that supplementation could have adverse effects on risks of advanced prostate cancer and type 2 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The scientific literature contains a wealth of information from different fields on potential disease mechanisms. However, identifying and prioritizing mechanisms for further analytical evaluation presents enormous challenges in terms of the quantity and diversity of published research. The application of data mining approaches to the literature offers the potential to identify and prioritize mechanisms for more focused and detailed analysis.Methods: Here we present MELODI, a literature mining platform that can identify mechanistic pathways between any two biomedical concepts.Results: Two case studies demonstrate the potential uses of MELODI and how it can generate hypotheses for further investigation. First, an analysis of ETS-related gene ERG and prostate cancer derives the intermediate transcription factor SP1, recently confirmed to be physically interacting with ERG. Second, examining the relationship between a new potential risk factor for pancreatic cancer identifies possible mechanistic insights which can be studied in vitro.Conclusions: We have demonstrated the possible applications of MELODI, including two case studies. MELODI has been implemented as a Python/Django web application, and is freely available to use at [www.melodi.biocompute.org.uk]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is increasing interest in the use of instrumental variable analysis to overcome unmeasured confounding in observational pharmacoepidemiological studies. This is partly because instrumental variable analyses are potentially less biased than conventional regression analyses. However, instrumental variable analyses are less precise, and regulators and clinicians find it difficult to interpret conflicting evidence from instrumental variable compared with conventional regression analyses. In this paper, we describe three techniques to assess which approach (instrumental variable versus conventional regression analyses) is least biased. These techniques are negative control outcomes, negative control populations and tests of covariate balance. We illustrate these methods using an analysis of the effects of smoking cessation therapies (varenicline) prescribed in primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of unintended drug effects, specifically drug repurposing opportunities and adverse drug events, maximizes the benefit of a drug and protects the health of patients. However, current observational research methods are subject to several biases. These include confounding by indication, reverse causality and missing data. We propose that Mendelian randomization (MR) offers a novel approach for the prediction of unintended drug effects. In particular, we advocate the synthesis of evidence from this method and other approaches, in the spirit of triangulation, to improve causal inferences concerning drug effects. MR addresses some of the limitations associated with the existing methods in this field. Furthermore, it can be applied either before or after approval of the drug, and could therefore prevent the potentially harmful exposure of patients in clinical trials and beyond. The potential of MR as a pharmacovigilance and drug repurposing tool is yet to be realized, and could both help prevent adverse drug events and identify novel indications for existing drugs in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is limited evidence about the effectiveness of varenicline and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) for long-term smoking cessation in primary care, or whether the treatment effectiveness differs by socioeconomic position (SEP). Therefore, we estimated the long-term effectiveness of varenicline versus NRT (> 2 years) on smoking cessation, and investigated whether effectiveness differs by SEP.Methods: This is a prospective cohort study of electronic medical records from 654 general practices in England, within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, using three different analytical methods: multivariable logistic regression, propensity score matching and instrumental variable analyses. Exposure was prescription of varenicline versus NRT, and the primary outcome was smoking cessation at 2 years' follow-up; outcome was also assessed at 3, 6, and 9 months, and at 1 and 4 years after exposure. SEP was defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation.Results: At 2 years, 28.8% (N = 20 362/70 610) of participants prescribed varenicline and 24.3% (N = 36 268/149 526) of those prescribed NRT quit; adjusted odds ratio was 1.26 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23 to 1.29], P < 0.0001. The association persisted for up to 4 years and was consistent across all analyses. We found little evidence that the effectiveness of varenicline differed greatly by SEP. However, patients from areas of higher deprivation were less likely to be prescribed varenicline; adjusted odds ratio was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.90 to 0.92), P < 0.0001.Conclusions: Patients prescribed varenicline were more likely to be abstinent up to 4 years after first prescription than those prescribed NRT. In combination with other evidence, the results from this study may be used to update clinical guidelines on the use of varenicline for smoking cessation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Instrumental variable analysis, for example with physicians' prescribing preferences as an instrument for medications issued in primary care, is an increasingly popular method in the field of pharmacoepidemiology. Existing power calculators for studies using instrumental variable analysis, such as Mendelian randomization power calculators, do not allow for the structure of research questions in this field. This is because the analysis in pharmacoepidemiology will typically have stronger instruments and detect larger causal effects than in other fields. Consequently, there is a need for dedicated power calculators for pharmacoepidemiological research.Methods and Results: The formula for calculating the power of a study using instrumental variable analysis in the context of pharmacoepidemiology is derived before being validated by a simulation study. The formula is applicable for studies using a single binary instrument to analyse the causal effect of a binary exposure on a continuous outcome. An online calculator, as well as packages in both R and Stata, are provided for the implementation of the formula by others.Conclusions: The statistical power of instrumental variable analysis in pharmacoepidemiological studies to detect a clinically meaningful treatment effect is an important consideration. Research questions in this field have distinct structures that must be accounted for when calculating power. The formula presented differs from existing instrumental variable power formulae due to its parametrization, which is designed specifically for ease of use by pharmacoepidemiologists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies finding that small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birth is associated with increased adiposity in childhood and adulthood have been based on analyses "adjusting" for height, weight, or body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)²) measured concurrently with the adiposity measurement. To assess the potential for bias due to overadjustment for a causal mediator, we compared 2 approaches to analyzing the association between SGA birth and adiposity outcomes (skinfold thicknesses and bioelectrical impedance measurement of body fat) at age 11.5 years using the same data set in a cohort of Belarusian children followed from birth in 1996-1997 to age 11.5 years in 2008-2010. We 1) studied the association of SGA birth with adiposity, adjusting for baseline covariates only, and 2) made additional regression adjustment for concurrent height, weight, or BMI. The first approach yielded negative associations between SGA birth and all adiposity outcomes. Additional adjustment for concurrent weight or BMI reversed (i.e., to positive) the SGA-adiposity association. To explore the latter anthropometric measures as causal mediators, we also used marginal structural models to estimate the controlled direct effect of SGA birth. That effect was similar to the effect seen with the first approach when modeled on height, was null when modeled on BMI, but was confounded by differences in lean mass versus fat mass when modeled on weight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous studies of early life influences on later growth in childhood have varied in their analytical approaches, particularly with respect to 'adjustment' for differences in size at the beginning of the growth period examined.Methods: We compared three commonly used statistical models to assess the effect of maternal body mass index (BMI) on growth between 6.5 and 11.5 years in a large cohort of Belarusian children, as follows: (Model 1) analysis of the difference in anthropometric measurements between the two ages; (Model 2) analysis of the measurement at 11.5 years after adjustment for the same measurement at 6.5 years; and (Model 3) analysis of the difference in measurements after adjustment for the measurement at 6.5 years (mathematically identical to Model 2).Results: Among PROBIT children of obese mothers (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ) vs those of mothers with normal BMI (18.5 to < 25 kg/m 2 ), Model 1 yielded larger increases in most weight and adiposity outcomes than did Model 2. We show that these larger effects arise because Model 2 parameterizes the effect of maternal BMI twice in same model: once for its effect on size at 6.5 years, and a second time for its effect on growth over the 5-year period between 6.5 and 11.5 years. Similar results were obtained in analogous analyses from cohorts in Boston, MA, and Singapore.Conclusion: Analysing the effect of exposure on change in outcome between two ages (Model 1) is clearly preferable to 'adjustment' for the outcome at the earlier age whenever the exposure under study affects the outcome at the earlier age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Observational studies suggest that breastfeeding benefits later maternal child-feeding practices, which in turn may contribute to positive eating attitudes. We investigated the effect of a randomized intervention to increase duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding on pre-adolescent eating attitudes.Methods: Long-term follow-up of the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (PROBIT), a cluster-randomized trial in 31 maternity hospitals and affiliated polyclinics in Belarus. Sites were randomly assigned an experimental intervention to promote longer duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding in mothers who initiated breastfeeding (n = 16 sites), or a control intervention of continuing usual care (n = 15 sites); 17 046 healthy infants were enrolled in 1996-7, of whom 13 751 (80.7%) completed the Children's Eating Attitude Test (ChEAT) at 11.5 years of age. A ChEAT score ≥ 22.5 (85th percentile) was used as an indicator of problematic eating attitudes. Analysis was based on intention-to-treat, accounting for clustering within hospitals/clinics.Results: Compared with the control arm, the experimental intervention substantially increased breastfeeding exclusivity (43.3% vs 6.4% exclusively breastfed at 3 months of age) and duration of any breastfeeding throughout infancy. The proportion of children with ChEAT scores ≥ 22.5 was lower in the experimental than control arm (boys 11.4% vs 17.2%; girls 18.5% vs 23.4%) [cluster-adjusted odds ratio (OR), boys: 0.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21,0.93; girls: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.27,0.99). Results were robust to adjustment for potential confounders and using a ChEAT score ≥ 25.5 (91st percentile) as the outcome (OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.28,1.03).Conclusions: An intervention to improve the duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding among term infants in Belarus was associated with a reduction in problematic eating attitudes at 11.5 years of age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryThe PROmotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (PROBIT) is a multicentre, cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in the Republic of Belarus, in which the experimental intervention was the promotion of increased breastfeeding duration and exclusivity, modelled on the Baby-friendly hospital initiative. Between June 1996 and December 1997, 17 046 mother–infant pairs were recruited during their postpartum hospital stay from 31 maternity hospitals, of which 16 hospitals and their affiliated polyclinics had been randomly assigned to the arm of PROBIT investigating the promotion of breastfeeding and 15 had been assigned to the control arm, in which breastfeeding practices and policies in effect at the time of randomization was continued. Of the mother–infant pairs originally recruited for the study, 16 492 (96.7%) were followed at regular intervals until the infants were 12 months of age (PROBIT I) for the outcomes of breastfeeding duration and exclusivity; gastrointestinal and respiratory infections; and atopic eczema. Subsequently, 13 889 (81.5%) of the children from these mother–infant pairs were followed-up at age 6.5 years (PROBIT II) for anthropometry, blood pressure (BP), behaviour, dental health, cognitive function, asthma and atopy outcomes, and 13 879 (81.4%) children were followed to the age of 11.5 years (PROBIT III) for anthropometry, body composition, BP, and the measurement of fasted glucose, insulin, adiponectin, insulin-like growth factor-I, and apolipoproteins. The trial registration number for Current Controlled Trials is ISRCTN37687716 and that for ClinicalTrials.gov is NCT01561612. Proposals for collaboration are welcome, and enquires about PROBIT should be made to an executive group of the study steering committee (M.S.K., R.M.M., and E.O.). More information, including information about how to access the trial data, data collection documents, and bibliography, is available at the trial website (http://www.bristol.ac.uk/social-community-medicine/projects/probit/). [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: studies have shown that milk and dairy consumption in adulthood have beneficial effects on health.Methods: we examined the impact of childhood and adult diet on physical performance at age 63–86 years. The Boyd Orr cohort (n = 405) is a 65-year prospective study of children who took part in a 1930's survey; the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS; n = 1,195) provides data from mid-life to old age. We hypothesised that higher intakes of childhood and adult milk, calcium, protein, fat and energy would be associated with a better performance.Results: in fully adjusted models, a standard deviation (SD) increase in natural log-transformed childhood milk intake was associated with 5% faster walking times from the get-up and go test in Boyd Orr (95% CI: 1 to 9) and 25% lower odds of poor balance (OR: 0.75; 0.55 to 1.02). Childhood calcium intake was positively associated with walking times (4% faster per SD; 0 to 8) and a higher protein intake was associated with lower odds of poor balance (OR: 0.71; 0.54 to 0.92). In adulthood, protein intake was positively associated with walking times (2% faster per SD; 1 to 3; Boyd Orr and CaPS pooled data).Conclusion: this is the first study to show positive associations of childhood milk intake with physical performance in old age. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Weight gain during infancy may programme later health outcomes, but examination of this hypothesis requires appropriate lifecourse methods and detailed weight gain measures during childhood. We examined associations between weight gain in infancy and early childhood and blood pressure at the age of 6.5 years in healthy children born at term.Methods: We carried out an observational analysis of data from a cluster-randomized breastfeeding promotion trial in Belarus. Of 17 046 infants enrolled between June 1996 and December 1997, 13 889 (81.5%) had systolic and diastolic blood pressure measured at 6.5 years; 10 495 children with complete data were analysed. A random-effects linear spline model with three knot points was used to estimate each individual's birthweight and weight gain from birth to 3 months, 3 months to 1 year and 1-5 years. Path analysis was used to separate direct effects from those mediated through subsequent weight gain.Results: In boys, after controlling for confounders and prior weight gain, the change in systolic blood pressure per z-score increase in weight gain was 0.09 mmHg [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -0.14 to 0.31] for birthweight; 0.41 mmHg (95% CI 0.19-0.64) for birth to 3 months; 0.69 mmHg (95% CI 0.47-0.92) for 3 months to 1 year and 0.82 mmHg (95% CI 0.58-1.06) for 1-5 years. Most of the associations between weight gain and blood pressure were mediated through weight at the age of 6.5 years. Findings for girls and diastolic blood pressure were similar.Conclusions: Children who gained weight faster than their peers, particularly at later ages, had higher blood pressure at the age of 6.5 years, with no association between birthweight and blood pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Socio-economic differences in the prevalence of overweight/obesity may be one factor through which health inequalities arise and may vary by the population studied. Methods: Analysing a cohort of 13 889 children born in Belarus between June 1996 and December 1997, the authors investigated associations of parental educational attainment and highest household occupation with: (i) measured body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and skinfold thicknesses at age 6.5 years and (ii) the parents’ reported BMI. Results: Overall, 10% of children, 37% of mothers and 53% of fathers were either overweight or obese. Children from non-manual households were 27% [95% confidence interval (CI): 10%, 47%] more likely to be overweight/obese (based on BMI) than those from manual households. They also had larger waist circumferences and higher percentage body fat (calculated from subscapular and triceps skinfolds). Similar associations for being overweight/obese were seen for fathers [odds ratio (OR), 1.10; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.18], but mothers from non-manual households were less likely to be overweight/obese: (OR, 0.84; 95% CI: 0.79, 0. 90). Associations of childhood and parental overweight/obesity with higher educational status of either parent were similar to those observed for non-manual households. Conclusion: We observed socio-economic differentials in overweight/obesity prevalence among children and their parents in Belarus. More affluent children and their fathers were more likely to be overweight/obese but the reverse was found for mothers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The publication in 2002 of the women's health initiative (WHI) trial revealed long-term risks and benefits of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Increased cardiovascular disease, venous thromboembolism and breast cancer risks outweighed benefits on hip fracture, colorectal and endometrial cancer. We investigated whether the subsequent 50% fall in HRT use in England impacted on population rates of these outcomes. Methods Time-series analysis of hospital admissions, incidence and mortality amongst women aged 50–69, England 1997–2006. Results There was no relationship between reduced HRT prescribing after 2002 and trends in breast cancer, colorectal cancer or hip fracture. Amongst 50–59 year olds, the annual percentage change in venous thromboembolism hospitalizations fell from 0.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): −2.3 to 2.3%] between 1997 and 2000 to −5.7% (−7.7 to −3.6%) between 2000 and 2006 (P-value = 0.001); the annual change in endometrial cancer mortality increased from 0.7% (−3.2 to 4.8%) between 1997 and 2003 to 11.0% (0.2 to 22.9%) after 2003 (P-value = 0.07); and previously falling acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations (annual change: −6.8%) and stroke (−3.0%) stabilized (−0.4%) or increased (+0.8%), respectively, around 2001 (P < 0.0001). Conclusion Although rates of venous thromboembolism (decline) and endometrial cancer mortality (increase) changed in line with WHI findings, the decline in venous thromboembolism may have started before 2002 and increased fatal endometrial cancers could be a chance finding. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) did not recommend laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer in 2000, but updated its guidance in 2006. We investigated the uptake of laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer before and after NICE guidance in 2000 and 2006. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Levels of the proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-18 (IL-18) are raised in old age and are associated with reduced physical functioning. Previous studies have indicated that the C allele of the rs5744256 polymorphism in the IL-18 gene is strongly associated with reduced circulating IL-18 levels. This variant has previously been associated with improved locomotor performance in old age, but the finding requires independent replication. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background One commonly held theory of ageing is that it is caused by oxidative damage to critical molecules in the body, including proteins, lipids and nucleic acids. Accumulation of oxidative DNA damage with age will occur if there is an increase in reactive oxygen species in the body, or a decline in antioxidant defences, or a reduced efficiency of DNA repair. Subjects and Methods Using the comet assay, we have measured DNA breaks and oxidised purines in lymphocytes from subjects of different age groups: 20-35 (n = 40), 63-70 (n = 35), and 75-82 (n = 22). We also measured the resistance of lymphocyte DNA to H2O2-induced oxidative damage, and the repair activity of cell-free lymphocyte extracts on a substrate containing 8-oxoguanine. Results We found an increase in oxidative base damage in old age, but this apparently does not result from deterioration of either antioxidant defence or DNA repair. In fact, both of these tend to increase with age. There were few age-related differences in plasma levels of dietary antioxidants: tocopherols and retinol were higher in the older subjects, while lycopene was highest in the youngest age group. Conclusions It is possible, that in old age, antioxidant defences and DNA repair are induced, in response to a higher level of oxidative damage, as mitochondria become more leaky and release more reactive oxygen. It is equally possible that older people, as survivors, had relatively high levels of antioxidant defences and DNA repair earlier in their lives, compared with those who did not survive to such an age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Having been breast-fed has been suggested to influence cancer risk in adulthood. We investigated associations between breast-feeding during infancy and adult cancer incidence and mortality in a cohort study and meta-analyses of published studies. Methods: The Boyd Orr cohort consisted of 4999 subjects who were originally surveyed in 1937–39, when they were 0–19 years of age. Cancer outcomes from 1948 through 2003 were available for 4379 (88%) subjects, and 3844 had complete data on all covariates. Associations of breast-feeding with cancer were investigated using proportional hazards models. We also identified 14 studies on infant feeding and cancer published from 1966 through July 2005, of which 10 could be combined with the Boyd Orr cohort results in a meta-analysis of breast cancer using random-effect models. Results: In the Boyd Orr cohort, ever having been breast-fed, compared with never having been breast-fed, was not associated with the incidence of all cancers (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 1.28) or of any individual cancer type examined (prostate HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 0.58 to 3.52; breast HR = 1.62, 95% CI = 0.89 to 2.94; colorectal HR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.45 to 1.63; gastric HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.47 to 3.15). In the meta-analysis, there was also no association between breast-feeding and breast cancer (regardless of menopausal status) (relative risk [RR] = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.85 to 1.04). However, breast-fed women had a reduced risk of premenopausal breast cancer (RR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79 to 0.98) but not of postmenopausal breast cancer (RR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.86 to 1.16). Conclusion: Ever having been breast-fed was not associated with overall breast cancer risk, although the meta-analysis revealed a reduced risk of premenopausal breast cancer in women who had been breast-fed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of breastfeeding on blood pressure in later life is uncertain. The authors conducted a systematic review of published studies from which estimates of a mean difference (standard error) in blood pressure between breastfed and bottle-fed subjects could be derived. They searched MEDLINE and Excerpta Medica (EMBASE) bibliographic databases, which was supplemented by manual searches of reference lists. Fifteen studies (17 observations) including 17,503 subjects were summarized. Systolic blood pressure was lower in breastfed compared with bottle-fed infants (pooled difference: –1.4 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI): –2.2, –0.6), but evidence of heterogeneity between study estimates was evident (χ216 = 42.0, p < 0.001). A lesser effect of breastfeeding on systolic blood pressure was observed in larger (n ≥ 1,000) studies (–0.6 mmHg, 95% CI: –1.2, 0.02) compared with smaller (n < 1,000) studies (–2.3 mmHg, 95% CI: –3.7, –0.9) (p for difference in pooled estimates = 0.02). A small reduction in diastolic blood pressure was associated with breastfeeding (pooled difference: –0.5 mmHg, 95% CI: –0.9, –0.04), which was independent of study size. If causal, the small reduction in blood pressure associated with breastfeeding could confer important benefits on cardiovascular health at a population level. Understanding the mechanism underlying this association may provide insights into pathways linking early life exposures with health in adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims To investigate the association of breastfeeding with all-cause, cardiovascular, and ischaemic heart disease mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background Greater physical activity (PA) and less sitting time (ST) have been associated with lower breast cancer (BC) risk in observational studies, but causality is undetermined. Mendelian randomization (MR) investigates causality by using genotype to simulate randomized trials within observational data. A recent summary-data MR study assessed PA and BC by estrogen-receptor (ER) status. We aimed to examine PA and ST in relation to invasive BC risk overall and by molecular subtype. Methods We performed two-sample MR using individual-level Breast Cancer Association Consortium data from 125,684 women (69,869 cases), and summary-level UK Biobank genetic data for the exposure (n = 91,105). We used imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated (p < 5x10-8) with accelerometer-measured PA (n-SNPs=5) or ST (n = 6). We estimated odds ratios (OR) from inverse-variance weighted MR. Results Greater PA was associated with lower risk of BC (OR = 0.48;95%CI=0.30-0.78 per standard deviation [SD] in activity). Estimates were inverse for all subtypes, particularly ER + (OR=0.45; 95%CI=0.25-0.83), PR + (OR=0.43;95%CI=0.22-0.85), and HER2 + (OR = 0.48; 95%CI=0.26-0.89). Greater ST was associated with higher risk of hormone-receptor-negative tumours, particularly triple-negative (ER-/PR-/HER2-) (OR = 2.04; 95%CI=1.06-3.93 per SD in ST). Estimates overall and for most other subtypes were elevated but had wide CIs crossing null. Sensitivity analyses (weighted-median MR and MR-Egger) did not suggest strong pleiotropic effects for either exposure. Conclusions Greater PA and lower ST reduces risk of all breast cancers, and hormone-receptor negative tumours, respectively. More widespread adoption of active lifestyles will lower burden from the most common cancer in women. Key messages More active and less sedentary lifestyles reduce risk of breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk factors for pancreatic cancer include a cluster of metabolic conditions such as obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes. Given that these risk factors are correlated, separating out causal from confounded effects is challenging. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables, may facilitate the identification of the metabolic drivers of pancreatic cancer.Methods: We identified genetic instruments for obesity, body shape, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes in order to evaluate their causal role in pancreatic cancer etiology. These instruments were analyzed in relation to risk using a likelihood-based MR approach within a series of 7110 pancreatic cancer patients and 7264 control subjects using genome-wide data from the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) and the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4). Potential unknown pleiotropic effects were assessed using a weighted median approach and MR-Egger sensitivity analyses.Results: Results indicated a robust causal association of increasing body mass index (BMI) with pancreatic cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09 to 1.65, for each standard deviation increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]). There was also evidence that genetically increased fasting insulin levels were causally associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer (OR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.63, per SD [44.4 pmol/L]). Notably, no evidence of a causal relationship was observed for type 2 diabetes, nor for dyslipidemia. Sensitivity analyses did not indicate that pleiotropy was an important source of bias.Conclusions: Our results suggest a causal role of BMI and fasting insulin in pancreatic cancer etiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]