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Background Treatment of multimorbid patients can be improved. Development of patient-centred care of high-quality requires context-bound understanding of the multimorbid population’s patterns of demographics, co-morbidities and medication use. Objective The aim of this study was to identify patterns of multimorbidity in the total population of Region Stockholm, Sweden, by exploring demographics, claimed prescription drugs, risk of mortality and non-random association of conditions. Methods In this cross-sectional descriptive population-based cohort study, we extracted data from the Swedish VAL database (N = 2 323 667) including all consultations in primary and specialized outpatient care, all inpatient care and all prescriptions claimed during 2017. We report number of chronic conditions and claimed prescription drugs, physical and mental co-morbidity, and 1-year mortality. We stratified the analyses by sex. We examined non-random associations between diseases using cluster analysis. Results In total, 21.6% had multimorbidity (two or more chronic conditions) and 24.1% had polypharmacy (more than five claimed prescription drugs). Number of claimed drugs, co-occurrence of mental and physical conditions, and 1-year mortality increased as multimorbidity increased. We identified seven multimorbidity clusters with clinically distinct characteristics. The smallest cluster (7% of individuals) had prominent cardiovascular disease, the highest 1-year mortality rate, high levels of multimorbidity and polypharmacy, and was much older. The largest cluster (27% of individuals) was younger and heterogenous, with primarily mental health problems. Conclusions Individuals with chronic conditions often show clinical complexity with both concordant and discordant conditions and polypharmacy. This study indicates that clinical guidelines addressing clustering of conditions may be one strategy for managing complexity.

Background and Aims Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a debilitating and costly condition, affecting approximately 10% of people globally. Progression of CKD is associated with an increased incidence of adverse renal and cardiovascular outcomes, and premature mortality, as well as increased requirement for renal replacement therapies (RRTs), which are associated with significant healthcare costs and resource use. The trajectories of CKD prevalence, progression, outcomes and the related costs are therefore critical considerations for public health and policy planning. Using country-specific, patient-level microsimulation, Inside CKD aims to model the global clinical and economic burden of CKD from 2020 to 2025. Method We used the Inside CKD microsimulation to model the economic burden of CKD in Europe. A virtual general population was developed for each country using national survey data and relevant data from published literature. Data inputs included country demographics, the prevalence of CKD and RRT, comorbidities and complication rates, as well as associated healthcare costs. CKD stages were defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) 2012 recommendations and patients were categorized according to estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria status. RRT modelling was calibrated against historical trends from country-specific renal registries. Model validation and calibration were conducted following established methods for health economic modelling. Here, we report the initial results from the UK analysis, with further analyses currently underway for additional European countries. Results The UK analysis revealed that annual healthcare costs associated with CKD will increase linearly from £12.51B to £13.99B between 2020 and 2025. The largest absolute increase in cost was observed in CKD stage 3b (£0.75B); however, CKD stage 5 had the largest relative increase in cost with an approximately three-fold increase (£0.14B to £0.41B). By 2025, costs associated with CKD will increase across all age categories (18–34, 35–64 and 65+ years); the 35–64 age group had the largest absolute increase in costs with an increase of £1.14B (£2.02B to £3.16B). The largest relative increase in cost was observed in the 18–34 age category, with a three-fold increase in costs (£0.09B to £0.27B). Conclusion Initial results from Inside CKD demonstrate that CKD poses a significant economic burden over the next 5 years. CKD stages 3b and 5 were associated with the most pronounced cost increases, likely due to increased prevalence for stage 3b and greater treatment cost for stage 5. Notably, the largest increase in CKD costs was observed in the 35–64-year-old ‘working’ population. Further policy interventions aimed at early diagnosis and proactive management should be considered to slow disease progression, improve patient outcomes and reduce the economic burden associated with CKD.

BackgroundSmall-scale studies suggest that hyperkalaemia is a less threatening condition in chronic kidney disease (CKD), arguing adaptation/tolerance to potassium (K+) retention. This study formally evaluates this hypothesis by estimating the distribution of plasma K+ and its association with mortality across CKD stages.MethodsThis observational study included all patients undergoing plasma K+ testing in Stockholm during 2006–11. We randomly selected one K+ measurement per patient and constructed a cross-sectional cohort with mortality follow-up. Covariates included demographics, comorbidities, medications and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We estimated K+ distribution and defined K+ ranges associated with 90-, 180- and 365-day mortality.ResultsIncluded were 831 760 participants, of which 70 403 (8.5%) had CKD G3 (eGFR 90 to 4.43 (3.22–5.65) mmol/L for eGFR ≤15 mL/min/1.73 m2. The association between K+ and mortality was U-shaped, but it flattened at lower eGFR strata and shifted upwards. For instance, the range where the 90-day mortality risk increased by no more than 100% was 3.45–4.94 mmol/L in eGFR >60 mL/min, but was 3.36–5.18 in G3 and 3.26–5.53 mmol/L in G4–G5. In conclusion, CKD stage modifies K+ distribution and the ranges that predict mortality in the community.ConclusionAlthough this study supports the view that hyperkalaemia is better tolerated with worse CKD, it challenges the current use of a single optimal K+ range for all patients.

BACKGROUND: Lower urinary excretion of the kidney tubule–specific biomarker epidermal growth factor (uEGF) is associated with increased risk of renal function [glomerular filtration rate (GFR)] loss in diabetes and in patients with established chronic kidney disease (CKD). We investigated whether uEGF is associated with rapid GFR decline or incident CKD in the general population. METHODS: Subjects without CKD or diabetes were recruited from the general population in Tromso, Norway [Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey (RENIS); N = 1249] and Groningen, the Netherlands [Prevention of REnal and Vascular END-stage disease (PREVEND); N = 4534], with a median follow-up of 5.6 and 7.4 years, respectively. GFR was measured by iohexol clearance in the RENIS and estimated using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine–cystatin C equation in the PREVEND study. Rapid GFR decline was defined as an annual GFR loss >3.0 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and in sensitivity analyses as subjects with the 10% steepest GFR slope within each cohort. RESULTS: Lower baseline uEGF excretion was associated with rapid GFR loss in both cohorts {RENIS, odds ratio [OR] per 1 μg/mmol lower uEGF 1.42 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–1.91], P = 0.02; PREVEND, OR 1.29 [95% CI 1.10–1.53], P

In recent clinical guidelines, individuals with chronic kidney disease are considered to have a similar 10-year absolute risk of cardiovascular death as individuals with diabetes or established cardiovascular disease. There is limited evidence to support this claim.We investigated the 10-year risk for cardiovascular death in individuals with moderate or severe chronic kidney disease (glomerular filtration rate of 30-60 or30 mL/min/1.73 m(2), respectively) in a cohort of primary care health check-ups in Stockholm, Sweden (n = 295,191, 46% women, 4290 cardiovascular deaths during 10 years follow-up). We also assessed the risk associated with diabetes or cardiovascular disease. The inclusion criteria, exposure, study outcome and follow-up period adhered strictly to the definitions of the European Society of Cardiology guidelines.The absolute 10-year risk of cardiovascular death was 3.9% and 14.0% in individuals with moderate and severe chronic kidney disease, respectively, but was substantially lower in women and in younger individuals. The risk in individuals with prevalent diabetes and cardiovascular disease was approximately two and three times higher compared to the risk estimate for moderate chronic kidney disease (hazard ratio (HR) 4.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.8-4.5 and HR 6.2, 95% CI 5.7-6.7 vs. HR 2.3 95% CI 2.0-2.6, respectively) while the risk for individuals with severe chronic kidney disease appeared more congruent to that of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (HR 5.5, 95% CI 3.3-8.9).Although moderate chronic kidney disease is an independent predictor for an increased 10-year risk of cardiovascular death, only those with severe chronic kidney disease had similar risk to those with diabetes or cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Both albuminuria and kidney dysfunction may affect circadian blood pressure (BP) rhythm, while exacerbating each other's effects. We investigated associations and interactions of these two risk factors with circadian BP rhythm variation and non-dipper pattern progression in community-dwelling older men.METHODS: This was a cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in the third and fourth cycles of the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, including 1051 men (age 71 years) with assessments on urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER), 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) and cystatin-C-estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Of these, 574 men attended re-examination after 6 years. Study outcomes were ABMP changes and non-dipping BP pattern (prevalence and progression).RESULTS: UAER associated with circadian BP rhythm both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Longitudinally, significant interactions were observed between UAER and kidney dysfunction (eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) in its association with the changes of both night-time systolic BP (SBP) and night-day SBP ratio. After stratification, UAER strongly predicted night-day SBP ratio change only in those with concurrent kidney dysfunction. At re-examination, 221 new cases of non-dipper were identified. In multivariable logistic models, high UAER associated with increased likelihood of non-dipper progression, but more strongly so among individuals with concurrent kidney dysfunction. These associations were evident also in the subpopulation of non-diabetics and in participants with normal range UAER.CONCLUSIONS: UAER associates with circadian BP rhythm variation and non-dipper progression in elderly men. Concurrent renal dysfunction modifies and exacerbates these associations.

To study whether a high level of physical activity prior to myocardial infarction (MI) also protects against recurrent MI (re-MI) or death.A longitudinal study of a primary cohort consisting of 204,038 skiers with a proved substantially high level of physical activity in the world's largest long-distance ski race, Vasaloppet, and 499,543 non-skiers selected from the Swedish population. Individuals with severe diseases at baseline were excluded. In the nationwide clinical register, Swedeheart, we identified 7092 individuals with a first MI incident between 1989 and 2010. Of these, 1039 (0.5%) were skiers and 6053 (1.2%) were non-skiers. One hundred and sixty-three (15.7%) skiers and 1352 (22.3%) non-skiers suffered a re-MI or died during follow-up (median 4.44 years), corresponding to an incidence rate of 38.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 33.2-45.4)/1000 person-years and 55.6 (95% CI 52.7-58.7)/1000 person-years, respectively. Severity of MI in both groups was the same. For skiers compared to non-skiers the unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for re-MI was 0.66 (95% CI 0.52-0.82). For death or re-MI, HR was 0.70 (95% CI 0.59-0.82) with consistent results in subgroups based on race year, age, gender, education level, marital status. After adjustment for also smoking, diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular medication, HR was 0.80 (95% CI 0.67-0.97).This large cohort study supports the hypothesis that patients with MI and with prior physical activity and healthy lifestyle, as evidenced by their participation in a long-distance ski race, have a lower risk of subsequent re-MI or death.

The cardiorenal syndrome, the detrimental bi-directional interplay between symptomatic heart failure and chronic kidney disease, is a major clinical challenge. Nonetheless, it is unknown if this interplay begins already at an asymptomatic stage. Therefore we investigated whether the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is associated with left ventricular function in participants free from clinical heart failure and with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)40% and with pre-specified sub-group analyses in individuals with a GFR60 mL/min/m(2).Two independent community-based cohorts were used; the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS; n = 911; 50% women; mean age: 70 years) and the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM; n = 538; mean age: 71 years). We investigated cross-sectional association between cystatin C-based GFR (estimated glomerular function [eGFR]) and systolic (LVEF), diastolic- (isovolumic relaxation time [IVRT]) and global left ventricular function (myocardial performance index [MPI]) determined by echocardiography.In both PIVUS and ULSAM, higher eGFR was significantly associated with higher LVEF (P = 0.004 [PIVUS] and P = 0.005 [ULSAM]). In PIVUS, higher eGFR was significantly associated with lower IVRT (P = 0.001) and MPI (P = 0.006), in age- and sex-adjusted models. After further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, the association between higher eGFR and higher LVEF was still statistically significant (P = 0.008 [PIVUS] and P = 0.02 [ULSAM]). In PIVUS, the age- and sex-adjusted association between eGFR and left ventricular function was similar in participants with eGFR60 mL/min/m(2).Our data suggest that the interplay between kidney and heart function begins prior to the development of symptomatic heart failure and kidney disease.

Both increased albuminuria and reduced kidney function may predict blood pressure (BP) progression in the community, while they exacerbate each other's effects. We investigated associations and interactions between these two risk factors, BP changes and hypertension incidence in community-dwelling elderly men.Observational study from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, which included 1051 men (all aged 71 years) with assessments on urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER), 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) and cystatin-C estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Of these, 574 men attended re-examination after 6 years, and ABPM measurements were again recorded to assess blood pressure changes and hypertension incidence.UAER was found to be associated with ABPM measurements both at baseline and longitudinally. In longitudinal analysis, there were significant interactions between UAER and kidney function in its association with the changes of systolic BP, mean arterial pressure and pulse pressure. After stratification for renal function state, UAER independently predicted BP changes only in those who had eGFR60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). At re-examination, 71 new cases of hypertension were recorded. In multivariable logistic models, similar interactions were observed on hypertension incidence: UAER was an independent predictor of incident hypertension only in those with reduced renal function. These associations were evident also in the subpopulation of non-diabetics and in participants with normal range UAER (20 µg/min).In community-dwelling elderly men, UAER associates with BP progression and hypertension incidence, even within the normal range. Concurrent reduction of renal function modifies and exacerbates these associations.

Background. Fatty acid (FA) composition in serum cholesterol esters (CE) and adipose tissue (AT) reflect the long-term FA intake in the general population. Because both dietary intake and FA biomarkers associate with renal function, our aim was to identify which CE and AT FAs are useful biomarkers of habitual FA intake in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods. Cross-sectional analysis was performed in 506 men (aged 70 years) with a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of

Obesity and physical inactivity are related to the development of insulin resistance, but their relative importance and conjoint effects are unclear.We related body mass index (BMI) and self-reported leisure-time physical activity (PA) at the age of 50 years to insulin sensitivity measured with euglycemic insulin clamp technique and the presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) at a subsequent examination, 20 years later, in 862 men free from diabetes and MetS at baseline.In a multivariable model including BMI, PA, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance index, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and all components of MetS at baseline, both BMI (beta, -0.19 mg/kg bodyweight/min per 1 kg/m; P0.0001) and PA (adjusted least square means, 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, and 6.2 mg/kg bodyweight/min in individuals with sedentary, moderate, regular, and athletic PA, respectively; P=0.0035) were significant predictors of insulin sensitivity at age 70. When categorizing individuals into four groups by BMI and PA at baseline, insulin sensitivity at the age of 70 years decreased significantly over the following categories: multivariable-adjusted least square means, 5.8 (low BMI/high PA); 5.6 (low BMI/low PA); 5.1 (high BMI/high PA); and 4.6 (high BMI/low PA) mg/kg bodyweight/min, respectively; P value of less than 0.0001.In our community-based sample of middle-aged men, BMI and PA were independent predictors of insulin resistance after 20 years of follow-up. Our results imply that obesity and physical inactivity may increase insulin resistance and metabolic risk by partly independent pathways, and emphasize the importance of strategies that address both obesity and physical inactivity to achieve increased public health.

To investigate associations of urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER) and heart failure (HF) incidence in a community-based sample.In a prospective study of 70-year-old men free from HF at baseline (n = 1106), UAER (from timed overnight samples) was analysed with established risk factors for HF [acute MI before baseline, acute MI during follow-up (modelled as a time-dependent covariate), hypertension, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, smoking, body mass index, and glomerular filtration rate] and more recently described risk factors [high-sensitive C-reactive protein and insulin sensitivity (clamp glucose disposal rate)] as predictors of HF incidence. Ninety-eight participants developed HF during a median follow-up of 9.0 years. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established and novel risk factors for HF, a 1 SD increase in log UAER increased the risk of HF in individuals without anti-hypertensive treatment (hazard ratio 1.49; 95% CI 1.13-1.98; P = 0.005). Furthermore, UAER remained an independent predictor of HF, also in participants without diabetes at baseline or myocardial infarction at baseline or during follow-up. There were no significant associations between UAER and HF incidence in individuals with anti-hypertensive treatment.Our observations support the notion that low-grade albuminuria is a marker for subclinical cardiovascular damage that predisposes to future HF in the community.

Dietary Acid Load, Kidney Function, Changes in Blood Pressure and Hypertension Incidence in Community Dwelling Elderly Men

Non-Esterified Fatty Acids and Cardiovascular Mortality in Elderly Men with Chronic Kidney Disease

Circulating Alpha-Tocopherol and Insulin Sensitivity Among Elderly Men with Chronic Kidney Disease

Mediation Analysis of Pro-Inflammatory Diets and Kidney Function in Two Community-Based Cohorts of Elderly