Estimating tubular damage for predicting progression of chronic kidney disease—what are the implications for clinical practice and public health?

BACKGROUND: Lower urinary excretion of the kidney tubule–specific biomarker epidermal growth factor (uEGF) is associated with increased risk of renal function [glomerular filtration rate (GFR)] loss in diabetes and in patients with established chronic kidney disease (CKD). We investigated whether uEGF is associated with rapid GFR decline or incident CKD in the general population. METHODS: Subjects without CKD or diabetes were recruited from the general population in Tromso, Norway [Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey (RENIS); N = 1249] and Groningen, the Netherlands [Prevention of REnal and Vascular END-stage disease (PREVEND); N = 4534], with a median follow-up of 5.6 and 7.4 years, respectively. GFR was measured by iohexol clearance in the RENIS and estimated using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine–cystatin C equation in the PREVEND study. Rapid GFR decline was defined as an annual GFR loss >3.0 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and in sensitivity analyses as subjects with the 10% steepest GFR slope within each cohort. RESULTS: Lower baseline uEGF excretion was associated with rapid GFR loss in both cohorts {RENIS, odds ratio [OR] per 1 μg/mmol lower uEGF 1.42 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–1.91], P = 0.02; PREVEND, OR 1.29 [95% CI 1.10–1.53], P