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There is an increasing global burden from chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Bangladesh reported a major epidemic in 2017, however, it was unclear if there had been prior widespread transmission. We conducted a nationally representative seroprevalence survey in 70 randomly selected communities immediately prior to the epidemic. We found 69/2,938 (2.4%) of sampled individuals were seropositive to CHIKV. Being seropositive to dengue virus (aOR 3.13 [95% CIs: 1.86-5.27]), male sex (aOR 0.59 [95% CIs: 0.36-0.99]), and community presence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes (aOR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.05-3.07) were significantly associated with CHIKV seropositivity. Using a spatial prediction model, we estimated that across the country, 4.99 (95% CI: 4.89 - 5.08) million people had been previously infected. These findings highlight high population susceptibility prior to the major outbreak and that previous outbreaks must have been spatially isolated., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Nipah virus (NiV), a highly lethal virus in humans, circulates in Pteropus bats throughout South and Southeast Asia. Difficulty in obtaining viral genomes from bats means we have a poor understanding of NiV diversity., Methods: We develop phylogenetic approaches applied to the most comprehensive collection of genomes to date (N=257, 175 from bats, 73 from humans) from six countries over 22 years (1999-2020). We divide the four major NiV sublineages into 15 genetic clusters. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation fit to a spatial signature of viral diversity, we estimate the presence and the average size of genetic clusters per area., Results: We find that, within any bat roost, there are an average of 2.4 co-circulating genetic clusters, rising to 5.5 clusters at areas of 1500-2000km2. We estimate that each genetic cluster occupies an average area of 1.3million km2 (95%CI: 0.6-2.3 million), with 14 clusters in an area of 100,000km2 (95%CI: 6-24). In the few sites in Bangladesh and Cambodia where genomic surveillance has been concentrated, we estimate that most clusters have been identified, but only ∼15% of overall NiV diversity has been uncovered., Conclusion: Our findings are consistent with entrenched co-circulation of distinct lineages, even within roosts, coupled with slow migration over larger spatial scales., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Dengue virus (DENV) non-structural protein 1 (NS1) has multiple functions within infected cells, on the cell surface, and in secreted form, and is highly immunogenic. Immunity from previous DENV infections is known to exert both positive and negative effects on subsequent DENV infections, but the contribution of NS1-specific antibodies to these effects is incompletely understood., Methods: We investigated the functions of NS1-specific antibodies and their significance in DENV infection. We analyzed plasma samples collected in a prospective cohort study prior to symptomatic or subclinical secondary DENV infection. We measured binding to purified recombinant NS1 protein and to NS1-expressing CEM cells, antibody-mediated NK cell activation by plate-bound NS1 protein, and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) of NS1-expressing target cells., Results: We found that antibody responses to NS1 were highly serotype-cross-reactive and that subjects who experienced subclinical DENV infection had significantly higher antibody responses to NS1 in pre-infection plasma than subjects who experienced symptomatic infection. We observed strong positive correlations between antibody binding and NK activation., Conclusions: These findings demonstrate the involvement of NS1-specific antibodies in ADCC and provide evidence for a protective effect of NS1-specific antibodies in secondary DENV infection., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

We developed mathematical models to analyze a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic in Reunion Island in 2018-2019. Our models captured major drivers of uncertainty including the complex relationship between climate and DENV transmission, temperature trends, and underreporting. Early assessment correctly concluded that persistence of DENV transmission during the austral winter 2018 was likely and that the second epidemic wave would be larger than the first one. From November 2018, the detection probability was estimated at 10%-20% and, for this range of values, our projections were found to be remarkably accurate. Overall, we estimated that 8% and 18% of the population were infected during the first and second wave, respectively. Out of the 3 models considered, the best-fitting one was calibrated to laboratory entomological data, and accounted for temperature but not precipitation. This study showcases the contribution of modeling to strengthen risk assessments and planning of national and local authorities., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. All authors: No reported conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission of endemic coronaviruses., Methods: We used data collected from 223 households with school-age children participating in weekly disease surveillance over 2 respiratory virus seasons (December 2015 to May 2017), to describe clinical characteristics of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HcoV-HKU1, HcoV-NL63, HcoV-OC43) infections, and community and household transmission probabilities using a chain-binomial model correcting for missing data from untested households., Results: Among 947 participants in 223 households, we observed 121 infections during the study, most commonly subtype HCoV-OC43. Higher proportions of infected children (<19 years) displayed influenza-like illness symptoms than infected adults (relative risk, 3.0; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.5-6.9). The estimated weekly household transmission probability was 9% (95% CrI, 6-13) and weekly community acquisition probability was 7% (95% CrI, 5-10). We found no evidence for differences in community or household transmission probabilities by age or symptom status. Simulations suggest that our study was underpowered to detect such differences., Conclusions: Our study highlights the need for large household studies to inform household transmission, the challenges in estimating household transmission probabilities from asymptomatic individuals, and implications for controlling endemic CoVs., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. T. M. Q. received honoraria for and served on the MEICHV COVID-19 Health Equity Community Advisory Board. M. D. T. H. and D. A. T. C. reports contract from Merck (to the University of Florida) for research unrelated to this manuscript. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a major public health concern worldwide. However, infection levels are rarely known, especially in Africa. We recruited individuals from Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso and Lambaréné, Gabon (age range, 1-55 years), tested their blood for CHIKV antibodies, and used serocatalytic models to reconstruct epidemiological histories. In Ouagadougou, 291 of 999 (29.1%) individuals were seropositive, ranging from 2% among those aged <10 years to 66% in those aged 40-55 years. We estimated there were 7 outbreaks since the 1970s but none since 2001, resulting in 600 000 infections in the city, none of which were reported. However, we could not definitively conclude whether infections were due to CHIKV or o'nyong-nyong, another alphavirus. In Lambaréné, 117 of 427 (27%) participants were seropositive. Our model identified a single outbreak sometime since 2007, consistent with the only reported CHIKV outbreak in the country. These findings suggest sporadic outbreaks in these settings and that the burden remains undetected or incorrectly attributed., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. H. S. reports being a paid consultant to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, for work understanding the potential of chikungunya vaccines. All other authors report no potential conflicts. Funding to pay the Open Access publication charges for this article was provided by the University of Cambridge. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Dengue virus (DENV) often circulates endemically. In such settings with high levels of transmission, it remains unclear whether there are risk factors that alter individual infection risk., Methods: We tested blood taken from individuals living in multigenerational households in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand for DENV antibodies (N = 2364, mean age 31 years). Seropositivity ranged from 45.4% among those 1-5 years old to 99.5% for those >30 years. Using spatially explicit catalytic models, we estimated that 11.8% of the susceptible population gets infected annually., Results: We found that 37.5% of the variance in seropositivity was explained by unmeasured household-level effects with only 4.2% explained by spatial differences between households. The serostatus of individuals from the same household remained significantly correlated even when separated by up to 15 years in age., Conclusions: These findings show that despite highly endemic transmission, persistent differences in infection risk exist across households, the reasons for which remain unclear., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest . All authors: No reported conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotypes 1 and 2 are a major cause of avoidable morbidity and mortality in South Asia. Despite the high risk of death among infected pregnant women, scarce incidence data has been a contributing factor to global policy recommendations against the introduction of licensed hepatitis E vaccines, one of the only effective prevention tools., Methods: We tested serum from a nationally representative serosurvey in Bangladesh for anti-HEV immunoglobulin G and estimated seroprevalence. We used Bayesian geostatistical models to generate high-resolution maps of seropositivity and examined variability in seropositivity by individual-level, household-level, and community-level risk factors using spatial logistic regression., Results: We tested serum samples from 2924 individuals from 70 communities representing all divisions of Bangladesh and estimated a national seroprevalence of 20% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%-24%). Seropositivity increased with age and male sex (odds ratio, 2.2 male vs female; 95% CI, 1.8-2.8). Community-level seroprevalence ranged widely (0-78%) with higher seroprevalence in urban areas, including Dhaka, with a 3.0-fold (95% credible interval, 2.3-3.7) higher seroprevalence than the rest of the country., Conclusions: Hepatitis E infections are common throughout Bangladesh. Strengthening surveillance for hepatitis E, especially in urban areas, can provide additional evidence to appropriately target interventions., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Contact patterns play a key role in disease transmission, and variation in contacts during the course of illness can influence transmission, particularly when accompanied by changes in host infectiousness. We used surveys among 1642 contacts of 94 Nipah virus case patients in Bangladesh to determine how contact patterns (physical and with bodily fluids) changed as disease progressed in severity. The number of contacts increased with severity and, for case patients who died, peaked on the day of death. Given transmission has only been observed among fatal cases of Nipah virus infection, our findings suggest that changes in contact patterns during illness contribute to risk of infection., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that although interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. This combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high-risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Since the identification of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil in May 2015, the virus has spread throughout the Americas. However, ZIKV burden in the general population in affected countries remains unknown., Methods: We conducted a general population survey in the different communities of French Guiana through individual interviews and serologic survey during June-October 2017. All serum samples were tested for anti-ZIKV immunoglobulin G antibodies using a recombinant antigen-based SGERPAxMap microsphere immunoassay, and some of them were further evaluated through anti-ZIKV microneutralization tests., Results: The overall seroprevalence was estimated at 23.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.9%-25.9%) among 2697 participants, varying from 0% to 45.6% according to municipalities. ZIKV circulated in a large majority of French Guiana but not in the most isolated forest areas. The proportion of reported symptomatic Zika infection was estimated at 25.5% (95% CI, 20.3%-31.4%) in individuals who tested positive for ZIKV., Conclusions: This study described a large-scale representative ZIKV seroprevalence study in South America from the recent 2015-2016 Zika epidemic. Our findings reveal that the majority of the population remains susceptible to ZIKV, which could potentially allow future reintroductions of the virus., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Understanding the true burden of emergent diseases is critical for assessing public-health impact. However, surveillance often relies on hospital systems that only capture a minority of cases. We use the example of Nipah-virus infection in Bangladesh, which has a high case-fatality ratio and frequent person-to-person transmission, to demonstrate how healthcare-seeking data can estimate true burden., Methods: We fit logistic-regression models to data from a population-based, healthcare-seeking study of encephalitis cases to characterize the impact of distance and mortality on attending one of three surveillance hospital sites. The resulting estimates of detection probabilities, as a function of distance and outcome, are applied to all observed Nipah outbreaks between 2007 and 2014 to estimate the true burden., Results: The probability of attending a surveillance hospital fell from 82% for people with fatal encephalitis living 10 km away from a surveillance hospital to 54% at 50 km away. The odds of attending a surveillance hospital are 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.6, 6.6) times greater for patients who eventually died (i.e. who were more severely ill) compared with those who survived. Using these probabilities, we estimated that 119 Nipah outbreaks (95% confidence interval: 103, 140)-an average of 15 outbreaks per Nipah season-occurred during 2007-14; 62 (52%) were detected., Conclusions: Our findings suggest hospital-based surveillance missed nearly half of all Nipah outbreaks. This analytical method allowed us to estimate the underlying burden of disease, which is important for emerging diseases where healthcare access may be limited., (© The Author(s) 2019; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large epidemics in the Americas. Households are natural targets for control interventions, but quantification of the contribution of household transmission to overall spread is needed to guide policy. We developed a modeling framework to evaluate this contribution and key epidemic features of the ZIKV epidemic in Martinique in 2015-2016 from the joint analysis of a household transmission study (n = 68 households), a study among symptomatic pregnant women (n = 281), and seroprevalence surveys of blood donors (n = 457). We estimated that the probability of mosquito-mediated within-household transmission (from an infected member to a susceptible one) was 21% (95% credible interval (CrI): 5, 51), and the overall probability of infection from outside the household (i.e., in the community) was 39% (95% CrI: 27, 50). Overall, 50% (95% CrI: 43, 58) of the population was infected, with 22% (95% CrI: 5, 46) of infections acquired in households and 40% (95% CrI: 23, 56) being asymptomatic. The probability of presenting with Zika-like symptoms due to another cause was 16% (95% CrI: 10, 23). This study characterized the contribution of household transmission in ZIKV epidemics, demonstrating the benefits of integrating multiple data sets to gain more insight into epidemic dynamics., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

Targeted interventions have been delivered to neighbors of cholera cases in major epidemic responses globally despite limited evidence for the impact of such targeting. Using data from urban epidemics in Chad and Democratic Republic of the Congo, we estimate the extent of spatiotemporal zones of increased cholera risk around cases. In both cities, we found zones of increased risk of at least 200 meters during the 5 days immediately after case presentation to a clinic. Risk was highest for those living closest to cases and diminished in time and space similarly across settings. These results provide a rational basis for rapidly delivering targeting interventions.

Nipah virus is a zoonotic virus harbored by bats and lethal to humans. Bat-to-human spillovers occur every winter in Bangladesh. However, there is significant heterogeneity in the number of spillovers detected by district and year that remains unexplained. We analyzed data from all 57 spillovers during 2007-2013 and found that temperature differences explained 36% of the year-to-year variation in the total number of spillovers each winter and that distance to surveillance hospitals explained 45% of spatial heterogeneity. Interventions to prevent human infections may be most important during colder winters. Further work is needed to understand how dynamics of bat infections explains spillover risk.

The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus surveillance and GBS data from Martinique in real time with a modeling framework that captured dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic, the risk of GBS in Zika virus-infected persons, and the clinical management of GBS cases. We compared our estimates with those from the 2013-2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia. We were able to predict just a few weeks into the epidemic that, due to lower transmission potential and lower probability of developing GBS following infection in Martinique, the total number of GBS cases in Martinique would be substantially lower than suggested by simple extrapolations from French Polynesia. We correctly predicted that 8 intensive-care beds and 7 ventilators would be sufficient to treat GBS cases. This study showcased the contribution of modeling to inform local health-care planning during an outbreak. Timely studies that estimate the proportion of infected persons that seek care are needed to improve the predictive power of such approaches., (© The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

The immune response to dengue virus (DENV) infection is complex and not fully understood. Using longitudinal data from 181 children with dengue in Thailand who were followed for up to 3 years, we describe neutralizing antibody kinetics following symptomatic DENV infection. We observed that antibody titers varied by serotype, homotypic vs heterotypic responses, and primary versus postprimary infections. The rates of change in antibody titers over time varied between primary and postprimary responses. For primary infections, titers increased from convalescence to 6 months. By comparing homotypic and heterotypic antibody titers, we saw an increase in type specificity from convalescence to 6 months for primary DENV3 infections but not primary DENV1 infections. In postprimary cases, there was a decrease in titers from convalescence up until 6 months after infection. Beginning 1 year after both primary and postprimary infections, there was evidence of increasing antibody titers, with greater increases in children with lower titers, suggesting that antibody titers were boosted due to infection and that higher levels of neutralizing antibody may be more likely to confer a sterilizing immune response. These findings may help to model virus transmission dynamics and provide baseline data to support the development of vaccines and therapeutics., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Proper understanding of the long-term epidemiology of chikungunya has been hampered by poor surveillance. Outbreak years are unpredictable and cases often misdiagnosed. Here we analyzed age-specific data from 2 serological studies (from 1973 and 2012) in Cebu, Philippines, to reconstruct both the annual probability of infection and population-level immunity over a 60-year period (1952-2012). We also explored whether seroconversions during 2012-2013 were spatially clustered. Our models identified 4 discrete outbreaks separated by an average delay of 17 years. On average, 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16%-37%) of the susceptible population was infected per outbreak, with >50% of the entire population remaining susceptible at any point. Participants who seroconverted during 2012-2013 were clustered at distances of <230 m, suggesting focal transmission. Large-scale outbreaks of chikungunya did not result in sustained multiyear transmission. Nevertheless, we estimate that >350 000 infections were missed by surveillance systems. Serological studies could supplement surveillance to provide important insights on pathogen circulation., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

The timing of a child's first acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) is important, because the younger a child is when he or she experiences ALRI, the greater the risk of death. Indoor exposure to particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) has been associated with increased frequency of ALRI, but little is known about how it may affect the timing of a child's first ALRI. In this study, we aimed to estimate the association between a child's age at first ALRI and indoor exposure to PM2.5 in a low-income community in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We followed 257 children from birth through age 2 years to record their age at first ALRI. Between May 2009 and April 2010, we also measured indoor concentrations of PM2.5 in children's homes. We used generalized gamma distribution models to estimate the relative age at first ALRI associated with the mean number of hours in which PM2.5 concentrations exceeded 100 µg/m(3). Each hour in which PM2.5 levels exceeded 100 µg/m(3) was independently associated with a 12% decrease (95% confidence interval: 2, 21; P = 0.021) in age at first ALRI. Interventions to reduce indoor exposure to PM2.5 could increase the ages at which children experience their first ALRI in this urban community.

Novel diagnostic tests hold promise for improving tuberculosis (TB) control, but their epidemiologic impact remains uncertain. Using data from the World Health Organization (2011-2012), we developed a transmission model to evaluate the deployment of 3 hypothetical TB diagnostic tests in Southeast Asia under idealized scenarios of implementation. We defined diagnostics by their sensitivity for smear-negative TB and proportion of patients testing positive who initiate therapy ("point-of-care amenability"), with tests of increasing point-of-care amenability having lower sensitivity. Implemented in the public sector (35% of care-seeking attempts), each novel test reduced TB incidence by 7%-9% (95% uncertainty range: 4%-13%) and mortality by 20%-22% (95% uncertainty range: 14%-27%) after 10 years. If also deployed in the private sector (65% of attempts), these tests reduced incidence by 13%-16%, whereas a perfect test (100% sensitivity and treatment initiation) reduced incidence by 20%. Annually detecting 20% of prevalent TB cases through targeted screening (70% smear-negative sensitivity, 85% treatment initiation) also reduced incidence by 19%. Sensitivity and point-of-care amenability are equally important considerations when developing novel diagnostic tests for TB. Novel diagnostics can substantially reduce TB incidence and mortality in Southeast Asia but are unlikely to transform TB control unless they are deployed actively and in the private sector.