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The average PM10 daily levels over the urban area of Thessaloniki, Greece, usually exceed the air quality limits and therefore the improved PM chemical composition and air quality modeling results that will facilitate the design of the most appropriate mitigation measures (e.g., limitations in wood combustion for heating purposes) are essential. The air quality modeling system WRF-CAMx was applied over a 2 × 2 km2 horizontal resolution grid covering the greater area of Thessaloniki for the year 2015, when Greece was still confronting the consequences of the financial crisis. The output hourly surface concentrations of twelve PM species at three sites of different environmental type characterization in the city of Thessaloniki were temporally and spatially analyzed. Carbonaceous aerosols (organic and elemental) are the major contributor to total PM10 levels during winter representing a 35–40% share. During summer, mineral aerosols (excluding dust) distribute by up to 48% to total PM10 levels, being the major contributor attributed to road traffic. PM species, during winter, increase in the morning and in the afternoon mainly due to road transport and residential heating, respectively, in addition with the unfavorable meteorological conditions. An underestimation of the primary organic carbon aerosol levels during winter is identified. The application of the modeling system using a different speciation profile for the fine particles emissions from residential heating based on observational data instead of the CAMS emissions profile revealed an improvement in the simulated OC/EC values for which a 50% increase was identified compared to the base run.

This study presents an updated assessment of the projected climate change over Greece in the near future (2021–2050) and at the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) (EOC), relative to the reference period 1971–2000, and focusing on seasonal crop-specific climatic indices. The indices include days (d) with: a maximum daily near-surface temperature (TASMAX) > 30 °C in Spring, a TASMAX > 35 °C in Summer (hot days), a minimum daily near-surface temperature (TASMIN) < 0 °C (frost days) in Spring, a TASMIN > 20 °C (tropical nights) in Spring–Summer and the daily precipitation (PR) > 1 mm (wet days) in Spring and Summer covering the critical periods in which wheat, tomatoes, cotton, potato, grapes, rice and olive are more sensitive to water and/or temperature stress. The analysis is based on an ensemble of 11 EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations under the influence of a strong, a moderate, and a no mitigation Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). The indices related to TASMAX are expected to increase by up to 11 days in Spring and 40 days in Summer, tropical nights to rise by up to 50 days, frost days to decrease by up to 20 days, and wet days to decline by up to 9 days in Spring and Summer, at the EOC with an RCP8.5. The increased heat stress and water deficit are expected to have negative crop impacts, in contrast to the positive effects anticipated by the decrease in frost days. This study constitutes a further step towards identifying the commodities and/or regions in Greece which, under climate change, are or will be significantly impacted.

The main objective of the present study is the development of an “on-line” heating emissions modeling system based on simulated meteorological data and its integration with air quality modeling systems in order to improve their accuracy. The WRF-CAMx air quality modeling system is applied over Greece for the cold period of 2015 (January–April, October–December) for two emissions scenarios: using the (a) “on-line” heating emissions based on WRF meteorology and (b) “static” heating emissions based on static temporal profiles. The monthly variation in total “on-line” heating emissions followed the temporal pattern of the air temperature over Greece, leading to the highest heating emissions in January and February, while higher differences in emissions between winter and spring/autumn months were identified in comparison with the static ones. The overall evaluation of the WRF-CAMx modeling system using the “on-line” heating emissions revealed satisfactory model performance for the mean daily air quality levels. The comparison between the simulated and observed mean monthly concentrations revealed an improvement in the pattern of mean monthly concentrations for the “on-line” scenario. Higher values of the index of agreement and correlation for the mean daily values were also identified for the “on-line” scenario in most monitoring sites.