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In some settings, systems may not fail completely but instead undergo performance degradation, leading to reduced efficiency. A significant concern arises when a system transitions into a degraded state without immediate detection, with the degradation only becoming apparent after an unpredictable period. Undetected degradation can result in failures with significant consequences. For instance, a minor crack in an oil pipeline might go unnoticed, eventually leading to a major leak, environmental harm, and costly cleanup efforts. Similarly, in the nuclear industry, undetected degradation in reactor cooling systems could cause overheating and potentially catastrophic failure. This paper focuses on reliability modeling for systems experiencing degradation, accounting for time delays associated with undetected degraded states, self-repair mechanisms, and varying operating environments. The paper presents a reliability model for degraded, time-dependent systems, incorporating various aspects of degradation. It first discusses the model assumptions and formulation, followed by numerical results obtained from system modeling using the developed program. Various scenarios are illustrated, incorporating time delays and different parameter values. Through computational analysis of these complex systems, we observe that the probability of the system being in the undetected degraded state tends to stabilize shortly after the initial degradation begins. The model is valuable for predicting and establishing an upper bound on the probability of the undetected, degraded state and the system's overall reliability. Finally, the paper outlines potential avenues for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The convergence of heterogeneous wireless sensor networks provides many benefits, including increased coverage, flexible load balancing capabilities, more efficient use of network resources, and the provision of additional data by different types of sensors, thus leading to improved customer service based on more complete information. However, despite these advances, the challenge of ensuring reliability and survivability remains due to low-cost sensor requirements and the inherent unreliability of the wireless environment. Integrating different sensor networks and unifying protocols naturally leads to the creation of a network with multiple sinks, necessitating the exploration of new approaches to rational reliability assurance. The failure of some sensors does not necessarily lead to a shutdown of the network, since other sensors can duplicate information and deliver data to sinks via an increased number of alternative routes. In this paper, the reliability indicator is defined as the probability that sinks can collect data from a given number of sensors. In this context, a dedicated reliability metric is introduced and examined for its effectiveness. This metric is computed using an algorithm rooted in the modified factoring method. Furthermore, we introduce a heuristic algorithm designed for optimal sink placement in wireless sensor networks to achieve the highest level of network reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are attracting increasing research interest due to their ability to monitor large areas independently. Their reliability is a crucial issue, as it is influenced by hardware, data, and energy-related factors such as loading conditions, signal attenuation, and battery lifetime. Proper selection of sensor node positions is essential to maximise system reliability during the development of products equipped with WSNs. For this purpose, this paper presents an approach to estimate WSN system reliability during the development phase based on the analysis of measurements, using strain measurements in finite element (FE) models as an example. The approach involves dividing the part under consideration into regions with similar strains using a region growing algorithm (RGA). The WSN configuration is then analysed for reliability based on data paths and measurement redundancy resulting from the sensor positions in the identified measuring regions. This methodology was tested on an exemplary WSN configuration at an aircraft wing box under bending load and found to effectively estimate the hardware perspective on system reliability. Therefore, the methodology and algorithm show potential for optimising sensor node positions to achieve better reliability results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research is to devise a continuous simulation model for predicting ship crane failures to increase their reliability and reduce unplanned downtime during cargo loading and unloading operations. To predict the condition of the hydraulic system, a database from the GALIOT software package was used for carrying out maintenance on cranes at m/v "O" over a period of 120,000 working hours. In the research, fault tree analysis (FTA) was used to identify causal relationships between system failures and basic events, while the Markov mathematical model was used to model the system state and predict transitions between different failure states. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to simulate the behavior of a system using POWERSIM PowerSim Constructor 2.5.d (4002), and regression analysis was performed to analyze the simulation results and understand the relationships between dependent and independent variables. The results show that a model for predicting failures in the hydraulic motors and pumps of ship cranes was developed, and the Markov model makes it possible to estimate the frequency of transitions between states under the condition that the sum of reliability equals one. The simulation model shows high reliability of the cranes and a constant frequency of failures throughout the 120,000 operating hours, while the regression analysis confirms the validity of the simulation model and shows a strong correlation between the analyzed variables. These models are used to improve the planning of ship crane maintenance, reduce unplanned downtime, and predict and promptly detect failures, which overall minimizes maintenance costs and failures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fatigue damage can lead to failures of structural systems. To reduce the failure risk and enhance the reliability of structural systems, inspection and maintenance interventions are required, and it is important to develop an efficient inspection strategy. This study, for the first time, develops a system-level reliability growth model to establish efficient inspection planning. System-level reliability growth is defined as an increase in the percentage of the system reliability index with and without inspection. The probabilistic S-N approach is used to obtain the reliability index without inspection. Moreover, advanced risk analysis and Bayesian inference techniques are used to obtain the reliability index with inspection. The optimal inspection planning is obtained by maximizing system-level reliability growth. This model is applied to an offshore wind farm. The results show that inspection efficiency can be improved by increasing the number of repair objects in response to a 'detection' inspection outcome, changing the inspection object for each inspection, and increasing the inspection quality. The maximum system-level reliability growth gained from one additional inspection decreases as the number of inspections increases. This study quantifies the inspection efficiency of offshore wind farms by explicit system-level reliability growth computation, offering valuable insights for promoting sustainable energy solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The parameters of gravity dams and foundation materials objectively exhibit spatial variability due to environmental and load influences, which significantly affect the safety status of dam structures. Therefore, a safety risk analysis method for a gravity dam–foundation system based on random field theory is proposed in this paper. Spatial variabilities in materials are particularly considered by using the finite element method. Then, composite response surface equations for the performance function (PF) of strength and stability failure are established, and then, the system failure risk is obtained using the Monte Carlo method. The proposed method solves the problem wherein the effect of spatial variability on failure risk cannot be reflected accurately by the performance function of multi-element sliding paths, and the difficulties in solving the failure risk of the series–parallel system due to multiple failure paths and their complex correlations. The application of a gravity dam shows that the developed method overcomes the disadvantages of the traditional method, such as the homogenization of the spatially random characteristics of parameters and the overestimation of failure risk in the system due to large variance estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding component criticality in machinery performance degradation is important in ensuring the reliability and availability of ship systems, particularly considering the nature of ship operations requiring extended voyage periods, usually traversing regions with multiple climate and environmental conditions. Exposing the machinery system to varying degrees of load and operational conditions could lead to rapid degradation and reduced reliability. This research proposes a tailored solution by identifying critical components, the root causes of maintenance delays, understanding the factors influencing system reliability, and recognising failure-prone components. This paper proposes a hybrid approach using reliability analysis tools and machine learning. It uses dynamic fault tree analysis (DFTA) to determine how reliable and important a system is, as well as Bayesian belief network (BBN) availability analysis to assist with maintenance decisions. Furthermore, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) fault detection model to identify the faults responsible for system unreliability. We conducted a case study on a ship power generation system, identifying the components critical to maintenance and defects contributing to such failures. Using reliability importance measures and minimal cut sets, we isolated all faults contributing over 40% of subsystem failures and related events. Among the 4 MDGs, the lubricating system had the highest average availability of 67%, while the cooling system had the lowest at 38% using the BBN availability outcome. Therefore, the BBN DSS recommended corrective action and ConMon as maintenance strategies due to the frequent failures of certain critical parts. ANN found overheating when MDG output was above 180 kVA, linking component failure to generator performance. The findings improve ship system reliability and availability by reducing failures and improving maintenance strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to address the limitations of traditional Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) in managing safety and reliability within complex systems characterized by interdependent critical factors. We propose an integrated framework that combines FMEA with the strategic decision-making principles of Game Theory, thereby enhancing the assessment and mitigation of risks in intricate environments. The novel inclusion of the Best Worst Method (BWM) and Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic variables refines the accuracy of risk evaluation by overcoming the inherent deficiencies of conventional FMEA approaches. Through sensitivity analysis, the framework's efficacy in identifying and prioritizing failure modes is empirically validated, guiding the development of targeted interventions. The practical application of our methodology is demonstrated in a comprehensive healthcare system analysis, showcasing its versatility and significant potential to improve operational safety and reliability across various sectors. This research is particularly beneficial for systems engineers, risk managers, and decision-makers seeking to fortify complex systems against failures and their effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the dynamic landscape of electronic commerce, the robustness of platforms is a critical determinant of operational continuity and trustworthiness, necessitating innovative approaches to fault tolerance. This study pioneers an advanced strategy for enhancing fault tolerance in e-commerce systems, utilizing non-positional numbering systems (NPNS) inspired by the mathematical robustness of the Chinese Remainder Theorem (CRT). Traditional systems rely heavily on positional numbering, which, despite its ubiquity, harbors limitations in flexibility and resilience against computational errors and system faults. In contrast, NPNS, characterized by their independence, equitability, and residue independence, introduce a transformative potential for system architecture, significantly increasing resistance to disruptions and computational inaccuracies. Our discourse extends beyond theoretical implications, delving into practical applications within contemporary e-commerce platforms. We introduce and elaborate on new terminologies, concepts, and a sophisticated classification system for fault-tolerance mechanisms within the framework of NPNS. This nuanced approach not only consolidates understanding but also identifies underexplored pathways for resilience in digital commerce infrastructure. Furthermore, this research highlights the empirical significance of adopting NPNS, offering a methodologically sound and innovative avenue to safeguard against system vulnerabilities. By integrating NPNS, platforms can achieve enhanced levels of redundancy and fault tolerance, essential for maintaining operational integrity in the face of unforeseen system failures. This integration signals a paradigm shift, emphasizing proactive fault mitigation strategies over reactive measures. Conclusively, this study serves as a seminal reference point for subsequent scholarly endeavors, advocating for a shift towards NPNS in e-commerce platforms. The practical adaptations suggested herein are poised to redefine stakeholders' approach to system reliability, instigating a new era of confidence in e-commerce engagements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In classical survival analysis, it is assumed that all the individuals will experience the event of interest. However, if there is a proportion of subjects who will never experience the event, then a standard survival approach is not appropriate, and cure models should be considered instead. This paper deals with the problem of adapting a machine learning approach for classical survival analysis to a situation when cure (i.e., not suffering the event) is a possibility. Specifically, a brief review of cure models and recent machine learning methodologies is presented, and an adaptation of machine learning approaches to account for cured individuals is introduced. In order to validate the proposed methods, we present an extensive simulation study in which we compare the performance of the adapted machine learning algorithms with existing cure models. The results show the good behavior of the semiparametric or the nonparametric approaches, depending on the simulated scenario. The practical utility of the methodology is showcased through two real-world dataset illustrations. In the first one, the results show the gain of using the nonparametric mixture cure model approach. In the second example, the results show the poor performance of some machine learning methods for small sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore wind is planned to become the first source of energy by 2050. That requires installing turbines in deeper seas. It is shown that only floating wind turbines will allow dealing with this challenge while keeping a reasonable cost of energy production and transport according to the levelized cost of electricity. A Floating Offshore Substation will be needed in many sites. This technology is still at a low technology readiness level. This paper aims to analyze the system reliability of such a structure for which the failure rates of structural components such as mooring lines and dynamic power cables are close to the ones of electro-technical systems. Consequently, only a system reliability assessment of the floating offshore substation will allow accurately quantifying its availability and the most sensitive components. Usually, structural reliability aims at quantifying the probability of failures, while electro-technical reliability relies on feedback and observed failure rates. The paper first unifies these two concepts in a single formulation and then evaluates the system's reliability and availability. This methodology is illustrated in a study case localized in the French coasts of the Mediterranean Sea, where the effect of several mooring and substation designs on the system reliability is compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last few decades have witnessed advancements in intelligent metaheuristic approaches and system reliability optimization. The huge progress in metaheuristic approaches can be viewed as the main motivator behind further refinement in the system reliability optimization process. Researchers have intensively studied system reliability optimization problems (SROPs) to obtain the optimal system design with several constraints in order to optimize the overall system reliability. This article proposes a modified wild horse optimizer (MWHO) for SROPs and investigates the reliability allocation of two complex SROPs, namely, complex bridge system (CBS) and life support system in space capsule (LSSSC), with the help of the same process. The effectiveness of this framework based on MWHO is demonstrated by comparing the results obtained with the results available in the literature. The proposed MWHO algorithm shows better efficiency, as it provides superior solutions to SROPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the problem of RF energy harvesting in wireless sensor networks, with the aim of finding a suitable communication protocol by comparing the performance of the system under different protocols. The network is made up of two parts: first, at the beginning of each timeslot, the sensor nodes harvest energy from the base station (BS) and then send packets to the BS using the harvested energy. For the energy-harvesting part of the wireless sensor network, we consider two methods: point-to-point and multi-point-to-point energy harvesting. For each method, we use two independent control protocols, namely head harvesting energy of each timeslot (HHT) and head harvesting energy of dedicated timeslot (HDT). Additionally, for complex channel states, we derive the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of packet transmission time using selective combining (SC) and maximum ratio combining (MRC) techniques. Analytical expressions for system reliability and packet timeout probability are obtained. At the same time, we also utilize the Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate our system and have analyzed both the numerical and simulation solutions. Results show that the performance of the HHT protocol is better than that of the HDT protocol, and the MRC technology outperforms the SC technology for the HHT protocol in terms of the energy-harvesting efficiency coefficient, sensor positions, transmit signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and length of energy harvesting time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind farms have gained wide attention due to unlimited resources and clean energy. Considering that wind turbine systems are always in harsh conditions, subsystem failures could reduce the reliability of wind turbine systems. At present, the maintenance behaviors for wind turbine systems are various (e.g., corrective maintenance, preventive maintenance) when reliability is reduced below the threshold. Considering the maintenance cost and downtime, it is impossible to repair each component in a timely manner. One of the key problems is dividing components into maintenance groups to improve maintenance efficiency. In this paper, a grouping maintenance policy considering the variable cost (GMP-VC) is proposed to improve direct-drive permanent magnet (DPM) turbine systems. Grouping modes are proposed to fully consider the stated transition probability of turbine components and the variable cost of turbine systems. A maintenance model is formulated to select components as members of the group based on a RIM-VC index. An instance is given to verify the proposed GMP-VC method. The result indicates that the proposed maintenance policy may save maintenance costs over baseline plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliability and sensitivity issues are very close and important problems in any technical system. The system's sensitivity is understood as the dependence of its behavior on changes in some internal parameters. To perform sensitivity analysis, a general procedure based on a theoretical and numerical study is proposed and applied to a repairable k-out-of-n model. The results show the asymptotic insensitivity of the non-stationary and stationary characteristics of the system reliability to the shape of the repair-time distribution, as well as to the value of its coefficient of variation at a fixed mean. The proposed methodology can be useful to researchers and engineers at the designing stage of real systems, as well as applied to other stochastic reliability models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the proportions of variable renewable sources (VRSs) such as solar and wind energy increase rapidly in the power system, their uncertainties inevitably undermine power supply reliability and increase the amount of operating reserve resources required to manage the system. However, because operating reserves have the characteristics of a public good and their value is related to the social cost of blackouts, it is difficult to determine their market price efficiently, which leads to inefficiencies in procuring operating reserves. This study estimates the operating reserve demand curve (ORDC) of the Korean power system to provide an effective basis for measuring the proper value and quantity of operating reserves needed to meet the reliability standard. A stochastic dynamic optimization model is applied to incorporate the probabilistic characteristics of VRS and the inter-hour constraint, which is necessary for analyzing load-following reserves. An econometric model and the Monte Carlo simulation method are used to generate the forecast profiles of solar and wind generation. The results indicate that the proper amount of hourly operating reserves needed in 2034 is approximately 4.4 times higher than that in 2020 at the current reserve offer price. The ORDC of 2020 has a price-inelastic shape, whereas the ORDC of 2034 has a price-elastic shape because the reserve requirement varies considerably with its offer price level in the high-VRS penetration case. This variability is due to alternatives, such as VRS curtailment or load shedding, which can replace the reserve requirement. This study also showed that VRS curtailment is an effective balancing resource as an alternative to reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, structural systems reliability analysis was used to estimate the system reliability of a typical semi-submersible based on the characteristic structure failure mechanisms under extreme wave loads. First, a three-dimensional simulation model was created for the chosen semi-submersible platform using an elastic-perfectly plastic material model, neglecting the effect of the strain hardening assumption. Then, under design wave conditions, and characteristic structural failure mechanisms of a semi-submersible platform were examined, and a system reliability model was developed based on the failure mechanism of the chosen platform. Finally, system reliability methods were used to determine the platform's system reliability. It was discovered that the main node's system reliability makes a significant contribution to the overall structure reliability, so it is strongly advised that the reliability of the main nodes be taken into account when determining the overall structure's reliability. This research aims to apply reliability theory in offshore engineering and, ideally, to encourage the reliability-based design of semi-submersible platforms and other similar structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Driven by the ever-growing diversity of software and hardware agents available on the market, Internet-of-Things (IoT) systems, functioning as heterogeneous multi-agent systems (MASs), are increasingly required to provide a level of reliability and fault tolerance. In this paper, we develop an approach to generalized quantifiable modeling of fault-tolerant and reliable MAS. We propose a novel software architectural model, the Intelligence Transfer Model (ITM), by which intelligence can be transferred between agents in a heterogeneous MAS. In the ITM, we propose a novel mechanism, the latent acceptable state, which enables it to achieve improved levels of fault tolerance and reliability in task-based redundancy systems, as used in the ITM, in comparison with existing agent-based redundancy approaches. We demonstrate these improvements through experimental testing of the ITM using an open-source candidate implementation of the model, developed in Python, and through an open-source simulator that tested the behavior of ITM-based MASs at scale. The results of these experiments demonstrated improvements in fault tolerance and reliability across all MAS configurations we tested. Fault tolerance was observed to improve by a factor of between 1.27 and 6.34 in comparison with the control group, depending on the ITM configuration tested. Similarly, reliability was observed to improve by a factor of between 1.00 and 4.73. Our proposed model has broad applicability to various IoT applications and generally in MASs that have fault tolerance or reliability requirements, such as in cloud computing and autonomous vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various random factors in the bridge construction process directly affect the safety of the bridge life cycle. The existing theories on the reliability of bridge structure mainly focus on the reliability of components and the reliability of the bridge structure system in the completion and operation stages, while the research on the reliability of the structure system in the construction stage is relatively lacking. Therefore, this paper proposed using the Copula function to calculate the reliability index of the bridge structure construction process system. The basic theory of the Copula function was introduced in detail, and the formula was improved according to the actual situation of bridge construction. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of bridge system reliability was carried out. The research results showed that the method proposed in this paper based on Copula theory to calculate the reliability index of the bridge structure construction process system has strong applicability, simple calculation, and can be used in conjunction with the "interval estimation method", which is suitable for large and complex bridge structural engineering. At the same time, the conclusion that the influence of failure mode correlation on structural reliability should not be ignored in the actual engineering construction process is confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geometric programming problem (GPP) is a beneficial mathematical programming problem for modeling and optimizing nonlinear optimization problems in various engineering fields. The structural configuration of the GPP is quite dynamic and flexible in modeling and fitting the reliability optimization problems efficiently. The work's motivation is to introduce a bounded solution approach for the GPP while considering the variation among the right-hand-side parameters. The bounded solution method uses the two-level mathematical programming problems and obtains the solution of the objective function in a specified interval. The benefit of the bounded solution approach can be realized in that there is no need for sensitivity analyses of the results output. The demonstration of the proposed approach is shown by applying it to the system reliability optimization problem. The specific interval is determined for the objective values and found to be lying in the optimal range. Based on the findings, the concluding remarks are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High uncertainty is an inherent behavior of geotechnical materials. Nowadays, random field theory is an advanced method to quantify the effect of high uncertainty on geotechnical engineering. This study investigates the effect of spatial variable soil layers on deformations of deep excavation via the random finite element method. A procedure based on PLAXIS 2D software was developed to generate two-dimension random finite element models including multiple variables. Via the K-S test and S-W test, the excavation deformations basically followed lognormal distribution. With the growth of standard deviation of soil properties parameters, the distribution of excavation deformations becomes wider, and the failure probability increases. When the vertical scale of fluctuation ranges from 1 m to 25 m, the distribution of excavation deformations becomes wider. To analyze system reliability, this study proposed a fitted multiple lognormal distribution methods, which was a method with higher efficiency. The results indicated that system reliability was lower than single failure probability and sensitive to design level. The system failure probability will be over-evaluated or under-evaluated if the correlation between excavation responses is ignored. This study provided a novel method to quantify the effect of high uncertainty of soil layer on excavation responses and proposed an efficient method for system reliability analysis, which is meaningful for excavation reliability design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: The classification problem is one of the problems often used in medical applications. The proposed method can be used to quantify the influence of the classification attributes on result of the classification. Health and safety is a problem that is intensively discussed nowadays. The failures in healthcare are called medical errors: if the patient's condition worsens or he/she contracts an illness, then the actions that led to this are interpreted as medical errors. Medical errors can be the result of new procedures, extremes of age, complex or urgent care, improper documentation, illegible hand-writing, or patient actions. One of the ways to reduce medical error is an evaluation of its possibility, and then using the result of this evaluation to improve the medical organization units and processes in patient diagnosis, treatment, and care. This evaluation is possible based on methods of reliability engineering. The reliability engineering methods allow evaluating of different systems' reliability and the influence of external and internal factors on system reliability. These methods' application needs the system to be investigated or objective interpretation in terms of reliability engineering. Therefore, such a system in healthcare, for the diagnosis of disease, a patient's treatment, the influence of different factors on a patient's condition, and others, should be presented according to the rules and demands of reliability engineering. The first step is development of the mathematical representation of the investigated system or object according to the demands of the reliability analysis. One of the often-used mathematical representations in the reliability analysis of a system is the structure function. However, this mathematical representation needs completely specified initial data. The initial data from the healthcare domain for medical error analysis is uncertain and incompletely specified. Therefore, the development of this mathematical representation needs special methods. In this paper, a new method for the mathematical representation of system development based on uncertain and incompletely specified data is proposed. The system evaluation based on the structure function allows computing of many reliability indices and measures used in reliability engineering. The approbation of this method is considered based on an example of COVID-19 patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cable-supported bridge is usually a key junction of a highway or a railway that demands a higher safety margin, especially when it is subjected to harsh environmental and complex loading conditions. In comparison to short-span girder bridges, long-span flexible structures have unique characteristics that increase the complexity of the structural mechanical behavior. Therefore, the system safety of cable-supported bridges is critical but difficult to evaluate. This study proposes a novel and intelligent approach for system reliability evaluation of cable-supported bridges under stochastic traffic load by utilizing deep belief networks (DBNs). The related mathematical models were derived taking into consideration the structural nonlinearities and high-order statically indeterminate characteristics. A computational framework is presented to illustrate the steps followed for system reliability evaluation using DBNs. In a case study, a prototype suspension bridge is selected to investigate the system reliability under stochastic traffic loading based on site-specific traffic monitoring data. The numerical results indicated that DBNs provide an accurate approximation for the mechanical behavior accounting for structural nonlinearities and different system behaviors, which can be treated as a meta-model to estimate the structural failure probability. The dominant failure modes of the suspension bridge are the fracture of suspenders followed by the bending failure of girders. The degradation of suspenders due to fatigue-corrosion damage has a significant effect on the system reliability of a suspension bridge. The numerical results provide a theoretical basis for the design on cable replacement strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hinged slab bridge is widely used in medium- and small-span bridges because of its simple structure and convenient construction. However, hinge joints damage is the main defect of this kind of bridge, and it is difficult to express the deterministic damage degree of hinge joints in the detection process. A system reliability evaluation method considering fuzzy detection information of hinge joints damage and member failure credibility is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the membership function is used to quantitatively express the fuzzy detection information of hinge joints, and the fuzzy variable is transformed to an equivalent random variable. Secondly, the functional relationship between the transverse distribution coefficient and hinge joints damage is constructed by the modified hinge-jointed plate method and response surface method, and the reliability of the member considering the fuzzy detection information of hinge joints damage is calculated by the first-order second-moment method (FOSM). Then, the failure credibility is introduced to represent the different possibilities of system failure caused by member failure, and a system reliability assessment method of different failure criteria considering member failure credibility is established based on copula theory. Finally, the applicability of the proposed method is verified by taking the reinforced concrete hinged slab bridge as a numerical example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In levee system reliability, the length effect is the term given to the phenomenon that the longer the levee, the higher the probability that it will have a weak spot and fail. Quantitatively, it is the ratio of the segment failure probability to the cross-sectional failure probability. The literature is lacking in methods to calculate the length effect in levees, and often over-simplified methods are used. An efficient (but approximate) method, which we refer to as the modified outcrossing (MO) method, was developed for the system reliability model used in Dutch national flood risk analysis and for the provision of levee assessment tools, but it is poorly documented and its accuracy has not been tested. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate the length effect in levees by sampling the joint spatial distribution of the resistance variables using a copula approach, and represented by a Bayesian Network (BN). We use the BN to verify the MO method, which is also described in detail in this paper. We describe how both methods can be used to update failure probabilities of (long) levees using survival observations (i.e., high water levels and no levee failure), which is important because we have such observations in abundance. We compared the methods via a numerical example, and found that the agreement between the segment failure probability estimates was nearly perfect in the prior case, and very good in the posterior case, for segments ranging from 500 m to 6000 m in length. These results provide a strong verification of both methods, either of which provide an attractive alternative to the more simplified approaches often encountered in the literature and in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The system reliability evaluation of a bridge structure is a complicated problem. Previous studies have commonly used approximate estimation methods, such as the wide bounds method and the narrow bounds method, but neither could obtain an accurate result. In recent years, the copula theory has been introduced into the system reliability evaluation, which can obtain more accurate results than the approximate methods. However, most studies simply construct binary copula functions to consider the joint failure of two failure modes. For a complex bridge structure composed of multiple components and failure modes, the joint failure of multiple failure modes needs to be considered. Before evaluating the system reliability, it is necessary to determine the failure criteria of the system. Different failure criteria for simply supported beam bridges have been proposed. However, there is no standard available to determine which failure criterion to choose, and the selection of failure criteria is ambiguous. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to evaluate the system reliability of a simply supported beam bridge by considering multiple failure criteria based on multivariate copulas and the analytic hierarchy process entropy weight (AHP–EW) method. The method first considers multiple failure criteria comprehensively and constructs multivariate copulas for the joint failure of multiple components in a bridge system reliability evaluation. The AHP–EW method is a comprehensive weighting method combining the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight methods, which is used to establish the hierarchical analysis model between system reliability and multiple failure criteria. By considering the joint failure of multiple failure modes in the system reliability evaluation under a single failure criterion, multivariate copula functions were constructed. In order to verify the applicability of the proposed bridge system reliability method, a simply supported reinforced concrete (RC) hollow slab bridge composed of nine slab segments was selected as the numerical example. The results indicate that the method proposed in this paper could evaluate the bridge system reliability more comprehensively and reasonably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exact statistical characteristics of some components may be unavailable because of the limited sample information in practical engineering. One challenge that system reliability analysis faces is dealing with limited sample sizes, which introduces the potential for a high level of uncertainty in the analysis results. In this paper, we propose a procedure for the reliability analysis of complex systems with a limited number of samples. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the parameter intervals of the life distributions of the components with a limited number of samples. Then, probability boxes (p-box) are constructed from the parameter intervals to represent the life distributions of the components with a limited number of samples. In addition, the theory of survival signature is applied to calculate the reliability of the system with a mixture of precise and imprecise knowledge of the life distributions of the components. Finally, two numerical examples are given to illustrate the validity of the methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prefabricated reinforced concrete (RC) hollow slab bridges, with the advantages of high quality, lower cost and shorter construction period, have been widely used for small-to-medium-span highway bridges in China. Because of environmental deterioration and traffic volume increases, the performance of the bridge system deteriorates gradually. Accurate bridge system evaluation can provide a reliable basis for maintenance and management. A bridge system is composed of multiple interrelated components, which makes the system reliability evaluation become a computationally intractable work. In this paper, an effective method was proposed to evaluate the system reliability of the prefabricated RC hollow slab bridge considering hinge joint damage based on the modified analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Considering the subjectivity of the traditional AHP method in constructing the judgment matrix, this paper proposed an objective construction method of the judgment matrix to modify the traditional AHP. The modified hinge plate method (MHPM) proposed by the previous research was utilized to analyze the effect of hinge joint damage on system reliability. In order to verify the applicability of the proposed system reliability evaluation method, a simply supported RC hollow slab bridge was selected as the case study and the system reliability indexes were compared with the traditional series and parallel methods. The results indicated that the traditional methods were either too conservative or too radical to objectively evaluate the actual system reliability level of the structure. In contrast, the proposed method in this paper was more suitable for evaluating the system reliability of such bridges, and more accurate in providing maintenance decision makers with a relatively reasonable bridge condition information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature-humidity (TH) induced failure mechanism (FM) of metal contacting interfaces in integrated circuit (IC) systems has played a significant role in system reliability issues. This paper focuses on central processing unit (CPU)/motherboard interfaces and studies several factors that are believed to have a great impact on TH performance. They include: Enabling load, surface finish quality, and contacting area. Test vehicles (TVs) of Clarkdale package and of Ibex peak motherboard were designed to measure low level contact resistance (LLCR) for catching any failure. Several sets of design of experiments (DOE) were conducted on 85 °C/85% relative humidity and test results were analyzed. A proposal that correlates asperity spots and contact tip design with contact resistance was proposed and thus a cost-effective solution for improving electrical performance under TH was deduced. The proposal has proven to be reasonably effective in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Internet of Things (IoT) provides communication service for future smart manufacturing, which is capable of independently exchanging and responding to information to manage industrial production processes. For the purpose of connecting machines, devices, sensors, and people with each other in a factory, reliable and scalable communication networks used in the cellular IoT are of great importance. This paper aims at channel parameter measurements of indoor Long Term Evolution systems in order to achieve good coverage and service reliability (SR) for the IoT. For the purpose of determining the path loss exponent and the standard deviation of the received shadow fading signal, we use software defined radio techniques to build a small cell experimental platform which contains an evolved node B and user equipment. Received power measurements were performed on this platform. Finally, based on the experimental results, the modified path loss model and the calculated fade margin (FM) for 90% SR are exploited to predict the coverage range of the small cell base station deployed in the factory. The measured path loss channel models are compared with International Telecommunication Union (ITU) path loss channel model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water distribution networks (WDNs) represent a class of critical infrastructure networks. When a disaster occurs, component failures in a WDN may trigger system failures that result in larger-scale reactions. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the evolution of system reliability and failure propagation time for a WDN experiencing cascading failures, and find the critical pipes which may reduce system reliability dramatically. Multiple factors are considered in the method such as network topology, the balance of water supply and demand, demand multiplier, and pipe break isolation. The pipe-based attack with multiple failure scenarios is simulated in the paper. A case WDN is used to illustrate the method. The results show that the lowest capacity gets stronger when a WDN is short of supply, becoming the dominant factor that decides the evolution of system reliability and failure propagation time. The valve ratio (VR) and system reliability present a flattened S curve relationship, and there are two turning points in VR. The critical pipes can be identified. With the fixed 5% valves, a WDN can improve system reliability and resist cascading failures effectively. The findings provide insights into the system reliability and failure propagation time for WDNs experiencing cascading failures. It is proven to be useful in future studies focused on the operation and management of water services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Railway bridges are exposed to repeated train loads, which may cause fatigue failure. As critical links in a transportation network, railway bridges are expected to survive for a target period of time, but sometimes they fail earlier than expected. To guarantee the target bridge life, bridge maintenance activities such as local inspection and repair should be undertaken properly. However, this is a challenging task because there are various sources of uncertainty associated with aging bridges, train loads, environmental conditions, and maintenance work. Therefore, to perform optimal risk-based maintenance of railway bridges, it is essential to estimate the probabilistic fatigue life of a railway bridge and update the life information based on the results of local inspections and repair. Recently, a system reliability approach was proposed to evaluate the fatigue failure risk of structural systems and update the prior risk information in various inspection scenarios. However, this approach can handle only a constant-amplitude load and has limitations in considering a cyclic load with varying amplitude levels, which is the major loading pattern generated by train traffic. In addition, it is not feasible to update the prior risk information after bridges are repaired. In this research, the system reliability approach is further developed so that it can handle a varying-amplitude load and update the system-level risk of fatigue failure for railway bridges after inspection and repair. The proposed method is applied to a numerical example of an in-service railway bridge, and the effects of inspection and repair on the probabilistic fatigue life are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance measure is a crucial method to identify and evaluate the system weak link. It is widely used in the optimization design and maintenance decision of aviation, aerospace, nuclear energy and other systems. The dissimilar redundancy actuation system (DRAS) is a key aircraft control subsystem which performs aircraft attitude and flight trajectory control. Its performance and reliability directly affect the aircraft flight quality and flight safety. This paper considers the influence of the Birnbaum importance measure (BIM) and integrated importance measure (IIM) on the reliability changes of key components in DRAS. The differences of physical fault characteristics of different components due to performance degradation and power mismatch, are first considered. The reliability of each component in the system is then estimated by assuming that the stochastic degradation process of the DRAS components follows an inverse Gaussian (IG) process. Finally, the weak links of the system are identified using BIM and IIM, so that the resources can be reasonably allocated to the weak links during the maintenance period. The proposed method can provide a technical support for personnel maintenance, in order to improve the system reliability with a minimal lifecycle cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main coolant system (MCS) plays a vital role in the stability and reliability of a nuclear power plant. However, human errors and natural disasters may cause some reactor coolant system components to fail, resulting in severe consequences such as nuclear leakage. Therefore, it is crucial to perform a resilience analysis of the MCS, to effectively reduce and prevent losses. In this paper, a resilience importance measure (RIM) for performance loss is proposed to evaluate the performance of the MCS. Specifically, a loss importance measure (LIM) is first proposed to indicate the component maintenance priority of the MCS under different failure conditions. Based on the LIM, RIMs for single component failure and multiple component failures were developed to measure the recovery efficiency of the system performance. Finally, a case study was conducted to demonstrate the proposed resilience measure for system reliability. Results provide a valuable reference for increasing the system security of the MCS and choosing the appropriate total maintenance cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a closed-form method to evaluate wind turbine system reliability and associated failure consequences. Monte Carlo simulation, a widely used approach for system reliability assessment, usually requires large numbers of computational experiments, while existing analytical methods are limited to simple system event configurations with a focus on average values of reliability metrics. By analyzing a wind turbine system and its components in a combinatorial yet computationally efficient form, the proposed approach provides an entire probability distribution of system failure that contains all possible configurations of component failure and survival events. The approach is also capable of handling unique component attributes such as downtime and repair cost needed for risk estimations, and enables sensitivity analysis for quantifying the criticality of individual components to wind turbine system reliability. Applications of the technique are illustrated by assessing the reliability of a 12-subassembly turbine system. In addition, component downtimes and repair costs of components are embedded in the formulation to compute expected annual wind turbine unavailability and repair cost probabilities, and component importance metrics useful for maintenance planning and research prioritization. Furthermore, this paper introduces a recursive solution to closed-form method and applies this to a 45-component turbine system. The proposed approach proves to be computationally efficient and yields vital reliability information that could be readily used by wind farm stakeholders for decision making and risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to highlight that, in order to assess the availability of different HVDC cable transmission systems, a more detailed characterization of the cable management significantly affects the availability estimation since the cable represents one of the most critical elements of such systems. The analyzed case study consists of a multi-terminal direct current system based on both line commutated converter and voltage source converter technologies in different configurations, whose availability is computed for different transmitted power capacities. For these analyses, the matrix-based reliability estimation method is exploited together with the Monte Carlo approach and the Markov state space one. This paper shows how reliability analysis requires a deep knowledge of the real installation conditions. The impact of these conditions on the reliability evaluation and the involved benefits are also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is devoted to an approach to develop a safety system process according to functional safety standards. With the development of technologies and increasing the specific energy stored in the equipment, the issue of safety during operation becomes more urgent. Adequacy of the decisions on safety measures made during the early stages of planning the facilities and processes contributes to avoiding technological incidents and corresponding losses. A risk-based approach to safety system design is proposed. The approach is based on a methodology for determining and assessing risks and then developing the necessary set of safety measures to ensure that the specified safety indicators are achieved. The classification of safety measures is given, and the model of risk reduction based on deterministic analysis of the process is considered. It is shown that the task of changing the composition of safety measures can be represented as the knapsack discrete optimization problem, and the solution is based on the Monte Carlo method. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the approach. The considered example contains a description of failure conditions, an analysis of the types and consequences of failures that could lead to accidents, and a list of safety measures. Solving the optimization problem used real reliability parameters and the cost of equipment. Based on the simulation results, the optimal composition of the safety measures providing cost minimization is given. This research is relevant to engineering departments, who specialize in planning and designing technological solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) have sophisticated control mechanisms that help achieve optimal system operations and services. These mechanisms, imply considering multiple signal inputs in parallel, to timely respond to varying working conditions. Despite the advantages that control mechanisms convey, they bring new challenges in terms of failure prevention. The compensatory action the control exerts cause a fault masking effect, hampering fault diagnosis. Likewise, the multiple information inputs CPSs have to process can affect the timely system response to faults. This article proposes a failure prognosis method, which combines time series-based forecasting methods with statistically based classification techniques in order to investigate system degradation and failure forming on system levels. This method utilizes a new approach based on the concept of the system operation mode (SOM) that offers a novel perspective for health management that allows monitoring the system behavior, through the frequency and duration of SOMs. Validation of this method was conducted by systematically injecting faults in a cyber-physical greenhouse testbed. The obtained results demonstrate that the degradation and fault forming process can be monitored by analyzing the changes of the frequency and duration of SOMs. These indicators made possible to estimate the time to failure caused by various failures in the conducted experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A framework is presented to effectively improve the water distribution system (WDS) reliability. The proposed framework first classifies pipes in a WDS into three reinforcement types through topological analyses and hydraulic simulations over the WDS; type 1: no reinforcement, type 2: increasing pipe durability, and type 3: installing valve(s) at both ends. Then two rules, rules 1 and 2, are implemented, in which rule 1 first reinforces the pipe with the lowest reliability but rule 2 preferentially reduces damage size by pipe failures represented as the expected number of customers out of service (EN). The proposed method was applied to Cherry Hill network, and considerably improved the WDS reliability from 0.137 to 0.483. Both approaches showed notable differences in changes of the EN at each step of reinforcement, where rule 2 showed a better capability to reduce the EN and detect vulnerable areas in the WDS than rule 1. In addition, a practical approach, maximizing valve installations and minimizing pipe replacements according to the reinforcement types in the system, provided an improved WDS reliability (0.423) close to that of the rule-based approach (0.483) using only 21% of the construction cost by the rule-based approach. The proposed framework can be guidelines for improving the WDS reliability under restricted budget and site conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advertising of any smart product is crucial in generating customer demand, along with reducing sale prices. Naturally, a decrease in price always increases the demand for any smart product. This study introduces a multi-product production process, taking into consideration the advertising- and price-dependent demands of products, where the failure rate of the production system is reduced under the optimum energy consumption. For long-run production systems, unusual energy consumption and machine failures occur frequently, which are reduced in this study. All costs related with the production system are included in the optimum energy costs. The unit production cost is dependent on the production rate of the machine and its failure rate. The aim of this study is to obtain the optimum profit with a reduced failure rate, under the optimum advertising costs and the optimum sale price. The total profit of the model becomes a complex, non-linear function, with respect to the decision variables. For this reason, the model is solved numerically by an iterative method. However, the global optimality is proved numerically, by using the Hessian matrix. The numerical results obtained show that for smart production, the maximum profit always occurs at the optimum values of the decision variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To form a smart production system, the effect of energy and machines' failure rate plays an important role. The main issue is to make a smart production system for complex products that the system may produce several defective items during a long-run production process with an unusual amount of energy consumption. The aim of the model is to obtain the optimum amount of smart lot, the production rate, and the failure rate under the effect of energy. This study contains a multi-item economic imperfect production lot size energy model considering a failure rate as a system design variable under a budget and a space constraint. The model assumes an inspection cost to ensure product's quality under perfect energy consumption. Failure rate and smart production rate dependent development cost under energy consumption are considered, i.e., lower values of failure rate give higher values of development cost and vice versa under the effect of proper utilization of energy. The manufacturing system moves from in-control state to out-of-control state at a random time. The theory of nonlinear optimization (Kuhn–Tucker method) is employed to solve the model. There is a lemma to obtain the global optimal solution for the model. Two numerical examples, graphical representations, and sensitivity analysis of key parameters are given to illustrate the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Railway bridges are exposed to repeated train loads, which may cause fatigue failure. As critical links in a transportation network, railway bridges are expected to survive for a target period of time, but sometimes they fail earlier than expected. To guarantee the target bridge life, bridge maintenance activities such as local inspection and repair should be undertaken properly. However, this is a challenging task because there are various sources of uncertainty associated with aging bridges, train loads, environmental conditions, and maintenance work. Therefore, to perform optimal risk-based maintenance of railway bridges, it is essential to estimate the probabilistic fatigue life of a railway bridge and update the life information based on the results of local inspections and repair. Recently, a system reliability approach was proposed to evaluate the fatigue failure risk of structural systems and update the prior risk information in various inspection scenarios. However, this approach can handle only a constant-amplitude load and has limitations in considering a cyclic load with varying amplitude levels, which is the major loading pattern generated by train traffic. In addition, it is not feasible to update the prior risk information after bridges are repaired. In this research, the system reliability approach is further developed so that it can handle a varying-amplitude load and update the system-level risk of fatigue failure for railway bridges after inspection and repair. The proposed method is applied to a numerical example of an in-service railway bridge, and the effects of inspection and repair on the probabilistic fatigue life are discussed.