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BACKGROUND Divorce is associated with a weakened relationship between the child and the nonresident parent, usually the father. This loss of contact is likely to be even further exacerbated if this parent lives at a substantial distance from the child. OBJECTIVE This paper analyzes how the distance between children and nonresident parents, the year after a parental separation, has changed during a 40-year period in Sweden, and whether this is related to changes in child custody policies. METHODS We use Swedish population register data that includes exact geographical coordinates for children and their nonresident parents in the year after separation. We analyze how average distance and the likelihood of living very close to, or very far from, a nonresident parent has changed over this period, using OLS and logistic regression models. RESULTS Results show a gradual decrease in the distance between children and nonresident parents from the 1970s until the early 1990s, after which the trend stalled at a low level. In 2011, 50% of all children lived within 2 kilometers of their nonresident parent. We find no evidence of direct policy effects, indicated by any sudden changes in distance after the introduction of a new custody policy. High-income parents have changed their post -divorce residential patterns at a faster pace than low-income parents. CONCLUSIONS Our results indicate a diffusion process where distances between children and nonresident parents gradually decreased until the 1990s. CONTRIBUTION This paper demonstrates that the change has not been directly influenced by custody law reforms promoting dual parent responsibility., Funder: Linnaeus Center for Social Policy and Family Dynamics in Europe (funded by the Swedish Research Council Grants 349-2007-8701)

Background: Several countries nowadays and in the past face a birth rates below replacement level. To what extent should the fertility of this shrinking population be increased during a given planning period such that it approaches stationarity at the end as close as possible? Both immediate adaptation to the replacement level as well as delaying it to the end of the planning period are suboptimal. Methods: Distributed parameter optimal control theory provides an appropriate tool to ascertain the efficient intertemporal trade-off between costly birth control and zero population growth. Results: It turns out that the optimal adaptation rate of the net reproduction rate (NRR) balances between unacceptable adjustment costs for fertility and huge deviations of the terminal age composition from the desired stationary one. The optimal adaptation rate is monotonically increasing with a curvature that depends on the growth rates of the NRR, the fertile population, and the value of newborns. Contribution: The paper analytically characterizes the shape of the transition to a stationary population in an optimal way.

Referencias bibliográficas : • Ahlburg, D.A., Jensen, E.R., and Perez, A.E. (1997). Determinants of extramarital sex in the Philippines. Health Transition Review 7(Supplement): 467-479. • Anglewicz, P., Adams, J., Obare, F., Kohler, H.-P., and Watkins, S. (2009). The Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project 2004-06: Data collection, data quality and analysis of attrition. Demographic Research 20(21): 503-540. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2009.20.21. • Bankole, A., Ahmed, F.H., Neema, S., Ouedraogo, C., and Konyani, S. (2007). Knowledge of correct condom use and consistency of use among adolescents in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa. African Journal of Reproductive Health 11(3): 197-220. doi:10.2307/25549740. • Bearman, P.S. and Brückner, H. (2001). Promising the future: Virginity pledges and first intercourse. American Journal of Sociology 106(4). doi:10.1086/320295. • Behrman, J.R., Kohler, H-P., and Watkins, S.C. (2001). How can we measure the causal effects of social networks using observational data? Evidence from the diffusion of family planning and AIDS worries in South Nyanza District, Kenya. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR Working Papers; WP-2001-022). • Bicchieri, C. (2006). The Grammar of society. The nature and dynamics of social norms. New York: Cambridge University Press. • Bicchieri, C., and Xiao, E. (2008). Do the right thing: But only if others do so. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 22(2): 191-208. doi:10.1002/bdm.621. • Bingenheimer, J.B. (2010). Men's multiple sexual partnerships in 15 sub-Saharan African countries: Sociodemographic patterns and implications. Studies in Family Planning 41(1): 1-17. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4465.2010.00220.x. • Bott, E. (1957). Family and social network. London: Tavistock. • Buehler, C., and Kohler, H-P. (2003). Talking about AIDS: The influence of communication networks on individual risk perceptions of HIV/AIDS infection and favored protective behaviors in South Nyanza District, Keny, BACKGROUND Recent research on the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has highlighted the relevance of married individuals' extramarital sexual behavior for the spread of the disease. At the same time, there is social disapproval of sexual infidelity. OBJECTIVE This article examines the extent to which Malawian married men's likelihood of having extramarital sex is influenced by their expectations about the prevalence of extramarital relationships in their social network. It also explores whether this effect depends on the network density, and whether it is also observed when the extramarital behavior of a particularly influential actor is controlled for. METHODS Data from the last two waves, 2004 and 2006, of the longitudinal survey provided by the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project are analyzed both cross-sectionally and through a panel analysis with fixed effects. The longitudinal approach enables the researcher to deal with the potential non-random distribution of social interactions among respondents, which bias the estimation in the cross-sectional analysis. RESULTS Married men's expectations about the prevalence of extramarital sexual relationships in the network were shown to have a substantial influence on their extramarital behavior, and the impact was found to be bigger in dense networks. In addition, there was some evidence that the perceived dominant behavior in the peer group is relevant, independent of the extramarital behavior of the respondents' best friends., Depto. de Sociología Aplicada, Fac. de Educación, TRUE, pub

Background: Attitudes to sexual minorities have undergone a transformation in many Western countries in recent decades. With much greater public acceptance, and an increase in policies and legislation to support equality and outlaw discrimination, the need for population statistics on sexual minority populations has grown. However, such statistics remain rare: Only a few sets of population estimates have been produced in a small number of countries, and there are no population projections of which we are aware. Objective: The aims of this paper are to introduce a model for producing projections of a national population by sexual identity, suggest ways in which data and conceptual limitations can be handled, and present illustrative population projections for Australia. Methods: An adapted multistate cohort-component is described, along with various data sources and approaches for preparing plausible projection assumptions. Two illustrative scenarios for the future of Australia’s sexual minority population over the 2016–2041 period are presented. Results: According to the selected scenarios, Australia’s sexual minority population is projected to increase rapidly over the coming decades, rising from 0.65 million in 2016 to between 1.25 and 1.57 million by 2041. This growth is generated by sexual minority cohort flow – the gradual replacement of cohorts with lower proportions of sexual minority identification by those with the higher proportions – and identification change. The overall share of the population identifying with a sexual minority identity is likely to increase. Conclusions: Although the projections remain illustrative and approximate, the likely coming growth of the sexual minority population signals multiple social, health, and economic policy implications ahead. Contribution: The paper presents a novel projection method and example projections of an under-researched and stigmatised population.

Background Increase in Women's education in India, is closely followed by declining hypergamy and increasing hypogamy, contrary to the global trends. Two trnds associated with this development suggest the possibility that this educational hypogamy is a product of status exchange: an increase in educational hypogamy among lower caste groups an a slow rise in caste exogamy. Objetives The prime objective of this paper is to determine whether status exchanges can explain educational hypogamy in India. The initial assumptions are that educational hypogamy can be explained by 'marrying up' by the caste of the husband, and women who belong to higher castes (who have less to gain by castes), are 'marrying up' by the occupation of the husband. Methods and Results Data from the Indian Demographic and Health Survey (2015-2016) and logistic regression models have been used to address the research question. Findings suggest that the education trade-off with social and economic exchanges are interconnected, which is affected significantly by the caste group that women and their husband belong to. When marrying, less-educated men, the preference to rise by caste is high among the lower-caste women, while the preference to rise by occupation is important among Women belonging to higher castes. Contribution This paper presents new evidence to reveal the existence of socioeconomic exchanges of education, caste and occupation in the Indian marriage market. It seems that the growth in educational achievement for Indian women is not diminishing social inequalities but providing another means by which social status can be exchanged.

For many causes of death a negative educational gradient has been found. This association may be partly explained by confounding factors that affect both education attainment and mortality. We correct the cause-specific educational gradient for observed individual background and unobserved family factors, using an innovative method based on months lost due to a specific cause of death re-weighted by the probability to attain a higher education level. We use men with brothers in the Swedish Military Conscription Registry (1951-1983), linked to administrative Swedish registers. These data, comprising 700,000 men, allow us to distinguish five education levels and many causes of death. The empirical results reveal that improving education from primary to higher education would lead to 20 months longer survival between 18 and 63. The reduction in death due to external causes when improving education is attributable to most of these gains. Ignoring confounding would underestimate the educational gains, especially for the low educated. Implied by our results is that if 50,000 men from the 1951 cohort had had the 1983 education distribution they would have saved 22% of the person-years between ages 18 and 63 that were lost to death.

Education is negatively associated with mortality for most major causes of death. The literature ignores that cause-specific hazard rates are interdependent and that education and mortality both depend on cognitive ability. We analyze the education-mortality gradient at ages 18-63 using Swedish register data. We focus on months lost due to a specific cause of death which solves the interdependence problem, and use a structural model that derives cognitive ability from military conscription IQ scores. We derive the educational gains in months lost and the selection effects for each cause of death, and quantify the selection contribution of observed characteristics and unobserved cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model that controls for observed IQ, primary education was associated with 6 months lost when compared to secondary education. In a structural model that accounts for cognitive ability the difference was 43% larger. In addition, the largest educational gains were achieved for the lowest education group in the reduction of external cause mortality. The educational gains in cardiovascular mortality was small, mainly due to large selection effects. These results suggest that educational differences in cause specific mortality may be biased by conventional Cox regression analyses.

Many methods have been proposed to solve the age-period-cohort (APC) linear identification problem, but most are not theoretically informed and may lead to biased estimators of APC effects. One exception is the mechanism-based approach recently proposed and based on Pearl’s front door criterion; it ensures consistent APC effect estimators in the presence of a complete set of intermediate variables between one of age, period, cohort and the outcome of interest, as long as the assumed parametric models for all the relevant causal pathways are correct. Through a simulation study mimicking APC data on cardiovascular mortality, we assess the performance of the mechanism-based approach under realistic conditions, namely when 1) the set of available intermediate variables is incomplete; 2) intermediate variables are affected by two or more of the APC variables, but this feature is not acknowledged in the analysis 3) unaccounted confounding is present between intermediate variables and the outcome. Furthermore, we show how the mechanism-based approach can be extended beyond the originally proposed linear and probit regression models to incorporate all generalized linear models, as well as non-linearities in the predictors using Monte Carlo simulation. We find that the mechanism-based approach (extended or not) is only slightly affected by bias when the departures from the assumptions are small.

Background: Previous studies have shown that the distribution of older people by living arrangement has changed and that old-age mortality differs by living arrangement. However, how these changes affect the total number of deaths has not been investigated. Objective: Our aim is to differentiate the effects on mortality of the change in the distribution of the population and the change in mortality rates associated with each type of living arrangement. Methods: Continuous observation of the population aged 60 and older for the period 1991–2012 in Belgium provides a unique opportunity to analyze changes in the population and in mortality by living arrangement. A simple decomposition method is used to examine to what extent these changes have influenced the total number of deaths. Results: The distribution of the population by living arrangement and the age-standardised mortality rates by living arrangement have changed remarkably. The overall effects of these changes on the total number of deaths offset each other, whereas the distribution of the number of deaths by living arrangement displays a large variation. Conclusions: This paper shows important changes in the distribution of the population and in mortality rates by living arrangement but only limited change in the total number of deaths. An important change occurred in the distribution of the population by their last living arrangement before death. Contribution: This paper highlights long-term trends in population and mortality rates by living arrangement in older age and also the distribution of the last living arrangement before death, which has important implications concerning care of the most elderly

Background: In a modern society with massive long-distance migration due to rapid development of transportation infrastructure, spousal separation has a substantial and cumulative effect on marital fertility (Menken 1979) due to not only lower intercourse frequency, but also factors affecting fertility in both the destination and origin locations. Objective: This paper investigates the effect of spousal separation on marital fertility for Chinese internal migrants and international migrants to the US. Methods: Using data from the Chinese International Migration Project, I jointly model the first, second and third births, and spousal separation applying event-history techniques and controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Time-varying information on both partners’ occupations is incorporated to capture the changes in their socioeconomic status. Results: The results show that the first two births are disrupted by spousal separation. Reunification does not lead to higher fertility but rather implies lower fertility. Moreover, there is a tendency for couples who are separated due to the migration of one partner to also have higher fertility levels. Conclusions: Concerns regarding the dramatic rise in migrant births after family reunification are not empirically grounded. Couple separation is related to a traditional division of labour. Furthermore, the correlation between migration and fertility mainly comes from the selectivity of household income. Contribution: This paper sheds light on the effects of migration-related changes in couples’ living arrangements on fertility, analysed by birth order in under-researched contexts: China-US migration and internal migration from Fujian province. Both migration types have dramatically increased in China in recent decades.

Background: Population ageing is unavoidable in Europe, but perhaps its impact on labor force is not. In the context of a new demographic regime of high immigration and low fertility, differentials in labor force participation and educational attainment can be more consequential for the labor force than either the number of immigrants or structure of the overall population. Objective: The objective of this paper is to investigate how improvements in both educational attainment (especially among children with a low educated mother or an immigration background) and labor force participation (especially of women and immigrants) could impact the future labor force in the European Union. Methods: We used a microsimulation model called CEPAM-Mic to project the labor force of EU28 countries. CEPAM-Mic incorporates heterogeneity among different groups and allows the development of alternative scenarios concerning educational attainment and labor force participation of disadvantaged groups. Results: Removing inequalities between subgroups in educational attainment and labor force participation drastically changes the prospective labor force size and labor force dependency ratio (LFDR) in the EU. Assuming perfect equality, the anticipated decline in the labor force size reduces by 54%, while the expected increase in the LFDR narrows by 70%. Conclusions: Population aging is a destiny in large part driven by past demographic behaviors, but its anticipated consequences in terms of labor force size and labor force dependency ratio may be avoidable. Contribution: This paper features a policy-oriented use of microsimulation population projections. The alternative scenarios developed go beyond traditional demographic scenarios that can only set assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration.

Background: Pressures to keep immigration rates at relatively high levels are likely to persist in most developed countries. At the same time, immigrant cohorts are becoming more and more diverse, leading host societies to become increasingly heterogeneous across multiple dimensions. For scholars who study demographic or socio-economic behaviours, the need to account for ethno-cultural “super-diversity” brings new challenges. Objective: The main objective of this paper is to present a framework for the prospective analysis of super-diversity in several high immigration countries. Methods: We developed microsimulation models that simultaneously project several population dimensions for Canada, the United States and countries of the European Union, with the aim of studying the consequences of alternate future population and migration trends. Results: The paper presents the projected progression of three indicators of diversity: percentage of foreign-born population, percentage of the population using a non-official language at home and percentage of non-Christians. It also examines the projected changes in the labour force by education levels and language. Using alternative scenarios, we also show that the proportion of highly educated in the US and EU28 labour force could increase by 11 and 15 percentage points respectively if future immigrants were selected as in Canada. Finally, the paper proposes a new longitudinal indicator that counts the number of years lived as active and inactive over the life course for foreign- and native-born cohorts. Contribution: The microsimulation models provide much more informative results than more traditional cohort-component models to study the future effects of ethno-cultural super-diversity on high immigration countries.

BACKGROUND Past analyses lead to contradictory results as to whether migration, demographic transition, or economic development is the main driver of urban transition. Results depend heavily on the analytical strategy. OBJECTIVE This paper’s aim is to identify different profiles of economic activity and their effect on urban transition over the 19th century in France to test three hypotheses: economic development acts on urban transition through migration; political and economic shocks better explain variations in the migration component of urbanisation than its natural components; the diffusion of the urban growth model of large cities explains urban transition in peripheral areas. METHOD The paper uses census data from 80 French counties – excluding Paris, Corsica, and counties disputed by Germany and Italy – for 1856 to 1891. Each component of urbanisation at county level is regressed on employment structure, controlling for neighbouring urbanisation and for distance to Paris and nearest large city. RESULTS Results confirm conclusions for Sweden and Belgium demonstrating that migration drove 19th-century urban transition. The migration component of urban transition is far more sensitive to employment structure and to political and economic instability than the natural components. The diffusion effect is marginal. CONCLUSIONS Results concur with the hypothesis that the redistribution of economic production through migration, and not the demographic transition, drove the urban transition. CONTRIBUTION The relationship between economic development and urban transition is assessed through the interaction of employment profile and period. Similar methodology could be used to analyse urban transition in contemporary low- and middle-income countries.

Immigrants and their descendants often marry a co-ethnic partner despite the abundance of native-born marriage candidates. The prevalence of co-ethnic marriages and intermarriage among migrants is influenced by their integration level and cultural background as much as individual preferences and structural factors. OBJECTIVE This paper expands existing literature on intermarriage by analysing first marriages across European countries, distinguishing marriage type (endogamous versus exogamous) and migrant generations (immigrants versus their descendants). METHODS Data from seven countries was aggregated using the count-data method and was subsequently pooled and analysed together; first, to estimate unadjusted first marriage rates; second, to calculate marriage risks separately by marriage type; and, finally, to directly compare the risk of exogamous and endogamous marriage. RESULTS There are substantial differences in the prevalence of co-ethnic marriage and intermarriage across the migrant groups. Migrants from non-EU countries often show a high prevalence of co-ethnic marriages and a low risk of intermarriage, whereas migrants from neighbouring countries show a relatively high risk of intermarriage. CONCLUSIONS Ethnic background and early socialisation have strong impacts on the partner choice of migrants and their descendants. The results suggest a strong influence of minority subcultures for some migrant groups, but also intergenerational adaptation processes for others. CONTRIBUTION This paper provides an up-to-date comparison of intermarriage rates across seven European countries and two migrant generations, presenting evidence of both similarities and differences across countries.

Background: Social media data is a promising source of social science data. However, deriving the demographic characteristics of users and dealing with the nonrandom, nonrepresentative populations from which they are drawn represent challenges for social scientists. Objective: Given the growing use of social media data in social science research, this paper asks two questions: 1) To what extent are findings obtained with social media data generalizable to broader populations, and 2) what is the best practice for estimating demographic information from Twitter data? Methods: Our analyses use information gathered from 979,992 geo-located Tweets sent by 22,356 unique users in South East England between 23 June and 4 July 2014. We estimate demographic characteristics of the Twitter users with the crowd-sourcing platform CrowdFlower and the image-recognition software Face++. To evaluate bias in the data, we run a series of log-linear models with offsets and calibrate the nonrepresentative sample of Twitter users with mid-year population estimates for South East England. Results: CrowdFlower proves to be more accurate than Face++ for the measurement of age, whereas both tools are highly reliable for measuring the sex of Twitter users. The calibration exercise allows bias correction in the age-, sex-, and location-specific population counts obtained from the Twitter population by augmenting Twitter data with mid-year population estimates. Contribution: The paper proposes best practices for estimating Twitter users’ basic demographic characteristics and a calibration method to address the selection bias in the Twitter population, allowing researchers to generalize findings based on Twitter to the general population.

Background In 2013 a draft population bill was introduced in the Iranian Parliament. Based on the presumption that fertility in Iran had fallen to a very low level, the bill proposed a wide range of pronatalist policies with the aim of increasing fertility to 2.5 births per woman. The draft law called for restrictions on the employment of women and young single people and inducements for women to marry in their late teens. New estimates of fertility, such as those provided in this paper, cast doubt upon the view that fertility had fallen to a very low level. In May 2014 a statement issued by the Supreme Leader provided guidelines for a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility at around the replacement level. Objective To measure the trend in fertility in Iran, especially from 2000 onwards. Methods Using the 2010 IDHS, the synthetic cohort parity progression ratio method is used to measure the fertility trend in Iran. Synthetic parity progressions are compared with real cohort parity progressions to examine the presence of tempo effects. Comparison is made with age-based measures from surveys, censuses, and the birth registration system. Results This paper demonstrates that fertility in Iran was constant for the decade 2000-2009, at a level of around 1.8-2.0 births per woman. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence supporting a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility in Iran at around the replacement level. Comments The paper demonstrates the advantages of parity-based measurement over age-based measurement when tempo effects may be involved.

Background: Migration has become one of the most salient policy areas in the European Union. In response, the European Commission established a research team with the task of investigating a range of possible demographic futures. Objective: This paper explores the demographic effects of migration on eastern, southern, and western EU regions, using different scenarios to see the extent population size, working-age population, education composition, and total age dependency can be influenced. Methods: We use a deterministic cohort-component projection model that (a) incorporates improving levels of educational attainment in the population and (b) explicit consideration of migration between EU member states (MS) and migration between EU MS and the rest of the world. Eight stylised what-if scenarios are developed around a medium assumption projection. Results: Although migration can have a large effect on total and working-age population size, the EU population will continue to age and see a rise in age dependency regardless. Despite depopulation occurring in many eastern MS, the region is and should remain in a better position than the south and on par with the west in terms of age dependency. Conclusions: While both the south and east provide large demographic subsidies of working-age people to the EU’s west, the south is less prepared to cope with the losses due to an already older population, lower labour force participation, and lower education levels. Contribution: We report demographic consequences of contrasting migration scenarios for the EU-28 (now EU+UK) based on multidimensional projections by age, sex, and educational attainment.

Background: How children spend their day is closely linked to their social and developmental outcomes. Children’s time use is associated with their parents’ educational and economic capital, making time use a potential reproduction channel for socioeconomic inequalities. Objective: We evaluate the correlation of natal-family economic resources, parents’ education, and children’s daily time use in Japan. Methods: Analysing data from a 2006 Japanese time use survey, we use natal-family income, parental education, and the interaction between them to predict in-school and afterschool study time, leisure time, and sleep time for children aged 10‒18. Results: Children from families with higher incomes and more-educated parents spend a longer time studying after school and less time on sleep and leisure. Parental income and mothers’ and fathers’ education are all independently associated with children’s daily patterns. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that available resources and parental education are important in shaping children’s daily routines and, through these routines, their eventual socioeconomic outcomes. Contribution: This is the first article to simultaneously assess the impact of income and parental education on children’s study, leisure, and sleep time. It is also the first paper to analyse children’s time use and their natal-family characteristics in Japan.

Background: The paper examines the effect of child labour on child health outcomes in Bangladesh, advancing the methodologies and the results of papers published in different journals.Objective: We examine the effect of child labour on child health outcomes.Methods: We used Bangladesh National Child Labour Survey data for 2002-2003 for our analysis.Results: The main finding of the paper suggests that child labour is positively and significantly associated with the probability of being injured or becoming ill. Intensity of injury or illness is significantly higher in construction and manufacturing sectors than in other sectors. Health disadvantages for different age groups are not essentially parallel.Conclusions: The results obtained in this paper strengthen the need for stronger enforcement of laws that regulate child labour, especially given its adverse consequences on health. Although the paper focuses on Bangladesh, much of the evidence presented has implications that are relevant to policymakers in other developing countries.

Background: Previous research has shown that the health transition and demographical pattern of indigenous people has followed a different path compared to non-indigenous groups living in the same area with higher mortality rates and shortened life expectancy at birth. Objective: This paper draws attention to the development of life expectancy for the Sami and non-Sami during the colonization era (1850-1899). The paper will compare the development of life expectancy levels, infant mortality, and age-specific mortality between the Sami and the non-Sami population and analyze the main causes of death. Methods: The source material for this study is a set of data files from the Demographic Data Base (DDB) at Umeå University. Life tables and calculations of values of life expectancies are calculated using period data. Results: The analysis reveals that the life expectancy at birth was remarkably lower for the Sami during the entire period, corresponding to a high infant mortality. When comparing life expectancy at birth with life expectancy at age one, Sami still had a lower life expectancy during the entire period. The analysis also reveals a lower proportion of deaths due to infections among the younger Sami. Conclusions: The results paint a complex picture of the demographic transition in Sápmi. Neither the Sami nor the non-Sami population followed the same pattern of increased life expectancies at birth, as the Swedish population did in general. The negative consequences of colonization (high mortality, low life expectancy at birth) hit the Sami and non-Sami populations, but at different time periods.

Background: Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this paper, I revisit some methods for forecasting age-specific life expectancies. Objective: This paper proposes a model averaging approach to produce accurate point forecasts of age-specific life expectancies. Methods: Illustrated by data from fourteen developed countries, we compare point and interval fore-casts among ten principal component methods, two random walk methods, and two uni-variate time-series methods. Results: Based on averaged one-step-ahead and ten-step-ahead forecast errors, random walk with drift and Lee-Miller methods are the two most accurate methods for producing point fore-casts. By combining their forecasts, point forecast accuracy is improved. As measured by averaged coverage probability deviance, the Hyndman-Ullah methods generally provide more accurate interval forecasts than the Lee-Carter methods. However, the Hyndman-Ullah methods produce wider half-widths of prediction interval than the Lee-Carter meth-ods. Conclusions: Model averaging approach should be considered to produce more accurate point forecasts.

Background: There is growing empirical evidence supporting theories of developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD). However, the implications of DOHaD conjectures for aggregate population patterns of human disease, disability, mortality, and aging are poorly understood., Objective: We empirically test two predictions derived from a formal model of aggregate population-level impacts of DOHaD. This model predicts that populations potentially influenced by delayed effects should experience singularities in their adult mortality patterns that can be empirically detected from aggregate data., Methods: We test predictions using a large mortality database for populations in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region, spanning nearly one hundred years of mortality history., Results: Results are consistent, within explicit bounds of uncertainty, with expected patterns. We find that younger cohorts in countries whose mortality decline starts more recently experience deceleration in survival gains at older ages, attenuation of the rate of aging at older ages, and a decline in the association between early childhood and adult mortality., Conclusions: Results point to the importance of adverse early conditions for human longevity. Future research should shed light on the impact on morbidity, disability, and healthy life expectancy., Contribution: This paper empirically tests selected predictions from a formal model of aggregate population-level impacts of DOHaD and shows that populations potentially influenced by delayed effects could experience singularities in their adult mortality patterns. We use a large mortality data base for populations in the Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) spanning nearly one hundred years of mortality history., Comments: To our knowledge this is the first time that implications of DOHaD conjectures for populations' mortality patterns are formulated precisely and empirically tested with aggregate population data.

BACKGROUND Despite an increase in scholarly and policy interest regarding the impacts of environmental change on migration, empirical knowledge in the field remains varied, patchy, and limited. Generalised discourse on environmental migration frequently oversimplifies the complex channels through which environmental change influences the migration process. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to systematise the existing empirical evidence on migration influenced by environmental change with a focus on Africa, the continent most vulnerable to climate change. METHODS We select 53 qualitative and quantitative studies on the influence of environmental change on migration from the comprehensive Climig database and systematically analyse the literature considering the multidimensional drivers of migration. RESULTS Environmental change influences migration in Africa in an indirect way by affecting other drivers of migration, including sociodemographic, economic, and political factors. How and in what direction environmental change influences migration depends on socioeconomic and geographical contexts, demographic characteristics, and the type and duration of migration. CONCLUSIONS The contextually contingent nature of migration–environment relationships prevents us from drawing a universal conclusion, whether environmental change will increase or suppress migration in Africa. However, this study unravels the complex interactions between the nature and duration of the environmental pressure, the livelihood of the populations, the role of kinship ties and the role of demographic differentials on migration response. CONTRIBUTION The review provides an initial systematic and comprehensive summary of empirical evidence on the environmental drivers of migration in Africa. It also discusses the implications of the scale, materials, and methods used in the 53 studies.