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The Sláintecare report developed by political consensus sets out a ten year plan for achieving Universal Health Care (UHC) in Ireland. This paper evaluates the design and progress of the report to mid 2020, but with some reflection on the new COVID 19 era, particularly as it relates to the expansion of entitlements to achieve UHC. The authors explore how close Sláintecare is to the UHC ideal. They also review the phased strategy of implementation in Sláintecare that utilises a systems-thinking approach with interlinkages between entitlements, funding, capacity and implementation. Finally the authors review the Sláintecare milestones against the reality of implementation since the publication of the report in 2017, cognisant of government policy and practice. Some of the initial assumptions around the context of Sláintecare were not realised and there has been limited progress made toward expanding entitlements, and certainly short of the original plan. Nevertheless there have been positive developments in that there is evidence that Government's Implementation Strategy and Action Plans are focussing on reforming a complex adaptive system rather than implementing a blueprint with such initiatives as integrated care pilots and citizen engagement. The authors find that this may help the system change but it risks losing some of the essential elements of entitlement expansion in favour of organisational change.

This paper investigates the affordability of private health expenditure among Irish households and the services contributing towards financial hardship. We use data from the Irish Household Budget Survey, a representative survey of household spending in Ireland, covering 2009-10 and 2015-16. Private health expenditure comprises out-of-pocket payments for health and social care services and private health insurance (PHI) premiums. The poverty threshold is 60% of median total equivalised consumption and households with consumption below this level were defined as poor. Households were classified as having unaffordable health expenditure if: 1) they were poor and reported any spending; 2) they were pushed below poverty threshold by health spending; or 3) their spending on health exceeded 40% of capacity to pay. Despite signs of economic recovery, the incidence of unaffordable private health spending increased over the years-from 15% in 2009-10 to 18.8% in 2015-16. People on low incomes were disproportionately affected. The largest component of unaffordable spending for poorer households is PHI and not user charges, which have actually fallen as a cause of hardship. Our findings indicate that reliance on private health expenditure as a funding mechanism undermines the fundamental goals of equity and appropriate access within the health care system.

While the benefits of irrigation for agricultural production are well established, the effects of irrigation management on production and environmental consequences are not well quantified. We used the APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) model to simulate the effect of six different irrigation management scenarios on pasture production and nitrogen (N) losses from both urine patches and non-urine affected areas using New Zealand farming systems as a test case. Nitrogen losses included nitrate (NO3) leaching, and gaseous emissions via ammonia (NH3) volatilisation and denitrification (nitrous oxide (N2O) and dinitrogen (N2) emissions). The effects of different climate and rainfall regimes were simulated for three different soil types – deep, poorly drained (Otokia), deep, well drained (Templeton) and shallow, well drained (Eyre) soils, using 20 years of data from two climate stations with mean annual rainfall amounts of 600 and 800 mm. In the shallow soil with the least plant available water, more frequent irrigation with higher total annual amounts resulted in a significant increase in predicted pasture production compared with less frequent irrigation due to less plant water stress. However, predicted N losses through leaching, denitrification and N2O emissions also increased. In the deep soils pasture growth was not affected by the frequency of irrigation, whereas denitrification increased with higher frequency irrigation, especially in the poorly drained soil, leading to increased N2O emissions. Based on these modelling results, N losses can be reduced with little effect on production by irrigating less frequently and maintaining soil water deficits.

Gig Economy workers often face do-it-yourself financial savings, more granular earnings structures (versus being salaried employees), and proportionally greater financial uncertainty whether psychologically perceived or real (e.g., income uncertainty). This paper extends prior work on temporal reframing (e.g., which has used specific amounts, such as saving a set amount per day) to explore in a lab setting with UK-based participants whether eliciting emergency savings decisions in temporal frames may make a difference even without specific amounts (e.g., how much would you like to save per day in pounds) and relative to completely unstructured savings decisions (e.g., how much would you like to save). Given the emergency savings context, we further examine exogenously varying levels of income risk on intentions to participate in recurring savings into an emergency saving fund. The investigation provides evidence that eliciting savings using more granular temporal frames (e.g., how much would you save per day versus how much would you save per month) increases savings, but likely through different psychological mechanisms as compared to when savings choices are offered with specific amounts. Whereas prior literature has shown mixed evidence for the independent worker segment and precautionary savings, this investigation supports the perspective that under moderate income variability, independent workers will also increase their intentions for precautionary savings, although under high income variability these increases may start to reverse (e.g., inverted U-shaped outcome response to increasing income variability) after controlling for small stakes risk and loss aversion and other demographics.

In this paper, we integrate investment decisions in the post-retirement decumulation period with that of the deferred annuity purchase to provide a lifetime decumulation solution. Based on Monte Carlo simulation and historical experience, we use the Perfect Withdrawal Rate (PWR) as a tool to make recommendations on withdrawal rates and asset allocations for different levels of risk preferences. We have a few potentially important findings. First, we illustrate how cheap it is to use a deferred annuity (especially with a deferred period of more than 15 years) as a solution to deal with longevity risk and maintain control of retirement wealth with the investor. Second, we find that if an individual wants to maximise median PWR, he/she should allocate almost 100% in stocks regardless of the length of chosen decumulation period. If an individual wants to maximise minimum PWR, he/she should allocate around 40% - 60% in stocks; therefore, a substantial stocks component should be maintained even if the individual is very risk averse. This then links to our final conclusion on a re-defined Glidepath: if an individual can accept a lower than 50% risk of failure, he/she should move from stocks to bonds as he/she becomes older; however a certain percentage in stocks should be maintained through the decumulation phase.

We show how the relatively new concept of Perfect Withdrawal Rate can be used in assessing the appropriate sustainable withdrawal amounts from a pot of wealth. This can be applied equally to private retirement funds, endowments, charities, and indeed any context requiring regular withdrawals from an initial pot. The subject of estimating sustainable withdrawal rates usually falls back on describing the likely minimum safe withdrawal possibilities for various portfolio constructions over different decumulation periods. This analysis uses either a long period of historical data or a recombination of the data in the form of Monte Carlo simulations. Here, to illustrate the power of the Perfect Withdrawal concept, we consider the case of someone who started their retirement journey on 1st January 2000, aged 65 and, with the benefit of actual investment returns, consider their investment and withdrawal rate options and the lessons we can learn from this experience. We also introduce the concept and a methodology for purchasing, a delayed annuity, such that at age 85 on December 31st 2019, our retiree had fully transitioned from investment income to annuity income for the rest of their life, no matter how long that may be.

The assessment of water uptake in agricultural systems commonly relies on the use of process-based biophysical models. To accurately represent crop-soil relationships, these models require local calibration which is often limited by the availability of site-specific data. This is the case for the water extraction coefficient (kl) in perennial forage cropping systems. The kl is critical to control water uptake by roots influencing soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths. This crop-soil parameter is particularly challenging to assess in species that establish deep root systems during long periods of regrowth, such as perennial forages. Using three years of detailed field data, we test a method to estimate kl for two perennial crops of broad socio-economic significance (lucerne and perennial ryegrass). The method is based on three physically meaningful parameters: Root Front Velocity (RFV, mm/day), surface kl (kl0,/day) and the rate of kl decay with soil depth (λkl, dimensionless). Our analysis showed that soil volumetric water content dynamics was most sensitive to kl0 values. A model fitting procedure showed that the highest accuracy of soil volumetric water content (θ) simulations was obtained with RFV of 10 mm/day and a kl0 of 0.11/day for both forages. In contrast, λkl estimates differed among species, being higher for shallow fibrous ryegrass roots than for the deep lucerne taproots. The analysis also highlighted that multiple parameter set combinations were found to give simulations of acceptable accuracy. The proposed method can be used as a first approximation to parameterise kl when local calibration data is unavailable. However, even for the fitted parameter sets, the accuracy of θ estimates was low at soil depths where there was a substantial transition of soil texture. These insights highlight important aspects to be considered in future development and parameterisation of water uptake models for perennial forages.

In modelling the hydrology of Earth's critical zone, there are two major challenges. The first is to understand and model the processes of infiltration, runoff, redistribution and root-water uptake in structured soils that exhibit preferential flows through macropore networks. The other challenge is to parametrise and model the impact of ephemeral hydrophobicity of water-repellent soils. Here we have developed a soil-water model, which is based on physical principles, yet possesses simple functionality to enable easier parameterisation, so as to predict soil-water dynamics in structured soils displaying time-varying degrees of hydrophobicity. Our model, WEIRDO (Water Evapotranspiration Infiltration Redistribution Drainage runOff), has been developed in the APSIM Next Generation platform (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulation). The model operates on an hourly time-step. The repository for this open-source code is https://github.com/APSIMInitiative/ApsimX. We have carried out sensitivity tests to show how WEIRDO predicts infiltration, drainage, redistribution, transpiration and soil-water evaporation for three distinctly different soil textures displaying differing hydraulic properties. These three soils were drawn from the UNSODA (Unsaturated SOil hydraulic Database) soils database of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). We show how preferential flow process and hydrophobicity determine the spatio-temporal pattern of soil-water dynamics. Finally, we have validated WEIRDO by comparing its predictions against three years of soil-water content measurements made under an irrigated alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) trial. The results provide validation of the model's ability to simulate soil-water dynamics in structured soils.

Soil hydraulic properties (SHP) control water movement and storage and thus affect a wide range of biogeochemical processes and ecosystem services. The objectives of this study were to identify the interactions between long-term land use and soil type on SHP (e.g., available water content [AWC], hydraulic conductivity [K]), and the effects of soil organic carbon (SOC) content on these properties. Soil water release curves and (near) saturated hydraulic conductivity at three soil depths (0–7.5, 7.5–15, and 15–30 cm) were measured under three long-term (>20 years) land uses (irrigated pasture [IP], dryland pasture [DP], and irrigated cropping [IC]) in Canterbury, New Zealand. For each land use, three soil types with contrasting drainage characteristics were selected: well-drained Lismore (LIS) stony silt loam, moderately well-drained Templeton (TEM) silt loam, and poorly-drained Waterton/Temuka (WAT) clay loam. Compared to DP, the IP and IC soils had lower AWC and K. Significant interactions between land use and soil type were found for AWC but not for K. Bulk density, SOC, and clay content could explain half the variation in AWC but had limited influence on K. More variance in AWC (6–13%) and K (5–27%) could be explained by including categorical variables (i.e., land use, soil type, and soil depth) and their interactions with continuous variables, indicating the potential benefit of including these categorical variables when developing pedotransfer functions for AWC and K. This study suggests that many macropores (>30 μm) were poorly connected and contributed more to water storage than to conducting water. The commonly used soil matric potential of −10 kPa was suitable for defining field capacity in DP and IC soils but a lower matric potential (−33 kPa) was more appropriate for IP soil affected by livestock treading during grazing. Soil organic carbon mainly increased AWC by affecting water retention at soil matric potentials of between −40 and −1500 kPa (equivalent to pore size 0.2–7.5 μm). Therefore, soil carbon sequestration may be important to alleviating water stress in dry environments. Our study also suggests that the effects of land use and its interaction with soil type, soil matric potential at field capacity, and soil organic carbon on SHP need to be considered during soil parameterization of hydrological models.

In pasture-based grazing systems, urine deposition is the major source of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Livestock treading damage and high soil water contents increase the risk of N 2 O emissions. Duration controlled grazing (DCG) practices that are implemented in response to soil water conditions above a threshold may therefore provide an effective means of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy farms. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential decrease in GHG emissions from dairy farms when implementing DCG when soil water content is above a specific threshold (akin to ‘wet’ days). We used the DairyNZ Whole Farm Model and APSIM model to assess the cost-benefit of implementing DCG to reduce total N 2 O and manure-derived CH 4 emissions from dairy farms. We modelled scenarios on poorly drained or imperfectly drained soils in four regions of New Zealand including Waikato, Manawatu, Canterbury and Southland, where the grazing time on wet days was 0, 13, 17 or 21 h per day. Emissions were estimated using a refined version of New Zealand's current national greenhouse gas inventory methodology. Our analysis suggested that reducing the grazing time from 21 h to 0, 13 or 17 h per day when soils were wet could reduce annual N 2 O and manure-derived CH 4 emissions by up to, respectively, 12, 9 or 5% on farms with poorly drained soils. The 13 h per day grazing duration was the least costly, particularly if there were > 150 ‘wet’ days per year. In contrast, for dairy farms on imperfectly-drained soils, DCG increased emissions, suggesting this management approach for reducing GHG emissions is not suitable for these soils.

Despite the importance of soil physical properties on loss pathways from high nitrogen (N) inputs quantitative information on the effect of soil heterogeneity on the fate of N is lacking. To quantify how changes in the physical description of soil layers, used as model inputs, affect various outputs of the biophysical APSIM model regarding the fate of urinary nitrogen (N) following winter grazing, a modelling sensitivity analysis was performed. APSIM was set up according to a field experiment on a poorly drained Flaxton soil in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. Soil profile descriptions were based on various measured datasets, with and without compacted soil surface layers due to treading during grazing of the winter forage crop. The effect of the inclusion of more permeable sandy layers within the subsoil, a common occurrence in the study region, was also examined. By systematically replacing soil layers with different physical properties, the effect of these layers on the N loss pathways was evaluated. The analysis identified that the bottom layer (1–1.5 m depth) had the greatest impact. With a low-permeability bottom layer nitrate leaching was 20% lower, whereas pasture N uptake, denitrification and nitrous oxide emissions were greater (by 5%, 58% and 43%). This is due to the effect of the bottom layer on water movement and storage within the soil profile. This description of the bottom layer had a substantially greater effect than compaction of the top soil layers due to treading. These results highlight the need for accurate soil physical descriptions for adequate model parameterisation, when such models are used for assessing management practices aimed at reducing environmental impacts.

In this paper we examine the proposition of de-risking through life and the guidance offered by TDFs in the decumulation phase following retirement. Using both Monte Carlo methods along with actual historical experience we investigate the withdrawal experience associated with Glidepath Investing in the US since 1925 for conventional bond-equity portfolios. We find two very powerful and practical conclusions. First, that smoothing the returns on individual assets by simple absolute momentum or trend following techniques is a potent tool to enhance withdrawal rates, often by as much as 50% per annum. And, perhaps of even greater social relevance is that it removes the ‘left-tail’ of unfortunate withdrawal rate experiences, that is, the bad luck of a poor sequence of returns early in decumulation. We show that diversifying assets over time by switching between a risky asset and cash in a systematic way is potentially more important for the retirement income experience than diversifying one’s portfolio across a range of risky asset classes. In particular the willingness to tactically de-risk and re-risk allows the investor to stay exposed to equities in selective calendar fashion for far longer with reduced potential for painful drawdowns and raised potential for higher withdrawal rates. Second, and very importantly, we also show that Glidepath Investing is indeed a very sensible strategy within a few years of the target date. This finding provides succour to enthusiasts for target date investing in the face of the growing hostility in the literature

We discuss the nature and importance of the concept of Sequence Risk, the risk that a bad return occurs at a particularly unfortunate time, such as around the point of maximum accumulation or the start of decumulation. This is especially relevant in the context of retirement savings, where the implications for withdrawal rates of a bad return can be particularly severe. We show how the popular ‘glidepath’ or target date savings’ products are very exposed to such risk. Three different measures of Sequence Risk are proposed, each of which is intended to inform investors of the probability that a chosen investment strategy may not deliver desired withdrawal rates and hence these measures are intended to aid investment choices; conventional performance measures such as Sharpe or Sortino ratios are only indirectly related to this ability to achieve a given withdrawal experience. Finally, we note that, using US data, very simple portfolios comprising equities and bonds can achieve very low probabilities of failure to achieve popular desired withdrawal rates such as 5% p.a. providing the equity component is ‘smoothed’ by switching in and out of cash using a simple trend following rule.

In recent years, the deferred annuity has aroused intensive discussion as a retirement solution product. In the course of understanding reasons behind the low demand of immediate annuities, two behavioural models, cumulative prospect theory and the hyperbolic discount model, have suggested that deferred annuity products would be popular among retirees. Therefore, in this paper, we provide an overview of the deferred annuity in several international markets, in terms of its availability, sales and demand, and relevant government policies. We find that, in general, there is an increasing awareness of and discussions around the world about deferred annuity products. However, the market share of the deferred annuity is very limited so far, unless there is an encouragement by the government using specific tax rules and regulation policies.

Grazed pastures rich in nitrogen (N) from ruminant urine and fertilizer inputs are significant sources of nitrous oxide (N2O), a highly potent greenhouse gas. Diffusion-controlled emission of N2O from pasture systems can be described by soil-gas diffusivity (Dp/Do), and its dependency on soil physical properties and soil moisture dynamics. But studies linking soil aggregation, soil moisture variation, Dp/Do and N2O emissions are lacking. Using coarse (2–4 mm) and fine (

Diffuse losses of phosphorus (P) from agricultural land via subsurface flow (viz leaching) can result in degradation of surface water quality. Factors such as irrigation and soil pH can increase the solubility of P and its subsequent loss to water. Urine patches are known to alter pH by up to 3 units, but it is unknown if this increases P loss. This study investigated subsurface P loss from a stony soil subjected to different rates of irrigation (12, 25, 50 mm h−1) with or without the application of urine (600 kg N ha−1), a typical N loading rate under a cattle urine patch, using intact lysimeters. Results showed that despite receiving urine, average total P (TP), filtered reactive P (FRP) and filtered unreactive P (FURP) concentrations were significantly (P < 0.05) lower (27, 3, 7 μg L−1) than non-urine treatments (40, 8, 11 μg L−1). Increasing the rate (not amount) of irrigation did not affect the load of P lost. Total P loads were generally low (0.070–0.167 kg ha−1) compared to other studies where P loss has been measured in drainage from pasture soils after P fertiliser application. The lack of differences observed with increasing irrigation rates was thought to be due to attenuation as P moved from preferential flow pathways in the topsoil to matrix flow in the subsoil gravels. The lower P losses following urine application were due to: 1) the buffering effect of the soil negating any significant pH-induced solubilisation of P; and 2) enhanced P uptake and decreased drainage (due to greater evapotranspiration) as dry matter production increased in response to the nitrogen applied in urine. However, despite this soil having only a moderate Olsen P concentration, typical of productive landuses in the region, FRP and TP concentrations still exceeded guidelines for good surface water quality. Strategies should be considered to decrease these losses, especially where drainage occurs via preferential flow pathways that negate attenuation of P losses, or are well connected to surface waters such as using precision irrigation.

In New Zealand a resurgence of irrigation development is underway. Considerable effort is focused on developing efficient irrigation technology to maximise production per unit of applied water while ensuring minimal environmental impacts. Most New Zealand pastoral soils have the potential to develop soil water repellency (WR). Its occurrence limits water infiltration, leads to ponding of water on the soil and may enhance runoff and macropore flow. Some limited New Zealand research has shown that subcritical WR may also be common, where water infiltration is impeded by WR and water absorption into the storage pores of the soil matrix may be restricted even though the soils appear to wet readily. The objective of this research was to assess the potential of arable soils to develop WR and to analyse potential tillage effects. Soil cores were collected from the 0–5 cm depth across the three dominant soil orders used for arable production in the Canterbury region, four common tillage practices and histories, as well as from two long-term tillage trials. At each site, duplicate soil cores were collected to compare the infiltration of water to ethanol using tension disc infiltrometers. Ethanol infiltration is not affected by repellent substances, so it is used as the reference infiltration liquid to assess the degree to which water infiltration is retarded. Our results showed that subcritical WR developed in arable soils irrespective of soil order. We found significantly higher WR with decreasing tillage intensity for the long-term tillage trial. In contrast, no such significant trend was found in the regional survey, which similarly only considered sites with known long-term tillage history. It is possible that any potential effect of tillage intensity on WR was masked by confounding site or soil factors in the survey. Tillage effects on subcritical WR were shown not to persist upon change of tillage system. Our results indicate that soil management affects the degree of subcritical WR and the resultant inhibition of early-time infiltration dynamics. Hydrological significance of the results was shown by comparing actual and potential short-term infiltration, showing that suboptimal infiltration into subcritical water-repellent soils limited soil wetting and water storage efficiency. Further research is recommended that develops soil and irrigation management practices that minimise the occurrence of subcritical WR and assist in capturing more water, resulting in increased irrigation efficiencies and reduced water footprints.

The effectiveness of growing winter cover crops to mitigate nitrogen (N) leaching can be widely variable, even within a single climatic zone. We sought to investigate key drivers of this variability for the Canterbury Plains of New Zealand. First, through an analysis of local field experiments, we quantified the local variability in the effectiveness of cover crops to reduce N leaching. We then calibrated and applied a biophysical model to isolate the impact of potential drivers of this variability. Crop management (cover crop sowing date), soil water holding capacity (WHC) and inter-annual weather variability (30 years of historical climate) were selected as main factors to be investigated. The analysis of local literature showed that, compared to fallow treatments, winter cover crops reduced N leaching by an average (±95% CI) of 17 ± 8.2 kg N ha−1. This represented a median N leaching reduction of ∼50% with a wide interquartile range (6–75%). The modelling study showed that the delay in sowing dates consistently reduced the average effectiveness of cover crops, from >80% for March- to

Ireland experienced one of the most severe economic crises of any OECD country. In 2011, a new government came to power amidst unprecedented health budget cuts.Despite a retrenchment in the ability of health resources to meet growing need, the government promised a universal, single-tiered health system, with access based solely on medical need. Key to this was introducing universal free GP care by 2015 and Universal Health Insurance from 2016 onwards.Delays in delivering universal access and a new health minister in 2014 resulted in a shift in language from ‘universal health insurance’ to ‘universal healthcare’. During 2014 and 2015, there was an absence of clarity on what government meant by universal healthcare and divergence in policy measures from their initial intent of universalism.Despite the rhetoric of universal healthcare, years of austerity resulted in poorer access to essential healthcare and little extension of population coverage. The Irish health system is at a critical juncture in 2015, veering between a potential path to universal healthcare and a system, overwhelmed by years of austerity, which maintains the status quo.This papers assesses the gap between policy intent and practice and the difficulties in implementing major health system reform especially while emerging from an economic crisis.

We investigate the impact of local and global macroeconomic factors on Eurobonds and local currency issued bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa, at different points on the yield curve. Using a unique proprietary data set collected from local authorities, central banks and independent international sources over the period 2001-2016, we find the local monetary policy interest rate and the balance of trade to impact both local currency bond yields and Eurobonds; global risk aversion, as proxied by the VIX index, to impact only the Eurobonds and much more the commodity importing countries; and the explanatory power of most models to be high.

Nitrous oxide emitted from urine patches is a key source of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A better understanding of the complex soil environmental and biochemical regulation of urine-N transformations in wet soils is needed to predict N 2 O emissions from grazing and also to develop targeted mitigation technologies. Soil aeration, gas diffusion and drainage are key factors regulating N transformations and are affected by compaction during grazing. To understand how soil compaction from animal treading influences N transformations of urine in wet soils, we applied pressures of 0, 220 and 400 kPa to repacked soil cores, followed by 15 N-labeled synthetic urine, and then subjected the cores to three successive saturation–drainage cycles on tension tables from 0 to 10 kPa. Compaction had a relatively small effect on soil bulk density (increasing from 0.81 to 0.88 Mg m −3 ), but strongly affected the pore size distribution. Compaction reduced both total soil porosity and macroporosity. It also affected the pore size distribution, principally by decreasing the proportion of 30–60 μm and 60–100 μm pores and increasing the proportion of micropores ( Rates of urine-N transformations, emissions of N 2 and N 2 O, and the N 2 O to N 2 ratio were affected by the saturation/drainage cycles and degree of compaction. During the first saturation–drainage cycle, production of both N 2 O and N 2 was low ( −2 h −1 ), probably because of anaerobic conditions inhibiting nitrification. In the second saturation/drainage cycle, the predominant product was N 2 at all compaction rates. By the third cycle, with increasing availability of mineral-N substrates, N 2 O was the dominant product in the uncompacted (max = 4.70 mg N m −2 h −1 ) and 220 kPa compacted soils (max = 7.65 mg N m −2 h −1 ) with lower amounts of N 2 produced, while N 2 was produced in similar quantities to N 2 O (max = 3.11 mg N m −2 h −1 ) in the 400 kPa compacted soil. Reduced macroporosity in the most compacted soil contributed to more sustained N 2 and N 2 O production as the soils drained. In addition, compaction affected the rate of change of soil pH and DOC, both of which affected the N 2 O to N 2 ratio. Denitrification during drainage and re-saturation may make a large contribution to soil N 2 O emissions. Improving soil drainage and adopting grazing management practices that avoid soil compaction while increasing macroporosity will reduce total N 2 O and N 2 emissions.

Since greater flexibility in accessing pension savings has been given to defined contribution pensioners, retirees are in need of advice on how to spend down their savings to make retirement income last throughout their lifetime. Deferred annuities have been discussed extensively in recent years as a retirement solution and have been recommended in the OECD Roadmap for the Good Design of Defined Contribution Pension Plans (OECD2016). Assuming a world where deferred annuities are available, we propose two utility maximising decumulation strategies comprising a deferred annuity purchased at retirement and optimal consumption and savings before the commencement of the annuity. A retiree who is concerned about longevity risk and wants to retain a certain level of liquidity is advised to spend 21.6% on a 15-year deferred annuity or 9.13% on a 20-year deferred annuity. A retiree who simply wants to use annuities to maximise overall satisfaction from retirement consumption is advised to spend 61.83% on a 6-year deferred annuity. We compare our strategies with other available decumulation strategies in the market, hence verifying the merits of the design. Moreover, the stability of our results are examined after allowing for consumption smoothness, social income benefits, a target replacement ratio and a bequest motive.

According to the Chinese calendar 2016 was the year of the Monkey. In this paper, using a common set of 500 US stocks, we analyse the performance of 1 billion randomly generated stock indices (as if chosen by a monkey) to both a market capitalization-weighted index and several popular smart beta indices. We find that 2016 was indeed a good year for monkeys. In the interests of animal welfare we have since released our monkeys back in to the wild for a well-earned rest and some energy replenishing bananas. It is now the Chinese year of the Rooster. Perhaps the big question is: who will be crowing by the end 2017, monkeys or market cap proponents?

Transformation of ruminant urine-nitrogen (N) can contribute to negative environmental outcomes such as nitrate leaching which leads to eutrophication of waterways and production of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas. Although abiotic factors influencing urine-N processing have been well studied, detailed studies of the soil microbial community dynamics following urine application are required to improve mitigation strategies for reducing harmful N fluxes from urine deposition. A factorial laboratory experiment using packed silt-loam soil cores with two levels each of urea (±), soil matric potential (ψ −6.0 or −0.2 kPa) and soil bulk density (ρb 1.1 or 1.5 g cm−3) was performed to study the interaction of urea and soil physical conditions on both soil inorganic N transformations and the abundance of ammonia-oxidizers and denitrifiers. Soil ψ and ρb treatments had an immediate impact on soil pH, dissolved organic carbon, inorganic N pools and emissions of N2O and N2 following urea deposition, and microorganisms carrying the nosZ gene were present in lower numbers in the most aerobic soil (−6.0 kPa and 1.1 g cm−3) from day 7. In all treatments, both bacterial amoA and denitrifier nirS, nirK and nosZ gene copy numbers increased within 1 day following urea application. Dynamics in the NH 4 + concentrations were significantly correlated with cumulative changes in the abundance of the ammonia-oxidizers, but no relation was found between cumulative changes in the denitrifier nirS, nirK and nosZ gene copy numbers and the dynamics in soil inorganic N, N2O or N2 emissions. Throughout most of the study period the specific soil conditions, induced by the ψ and ρb treatments, determined nitrifier and denitrifier activity rather than the size of the microbial communities involved. However, by day 35 soil ψ and ρb treatments exerted large treatment effects on bacterial amoA, nirS and nirK gene copy numbers. Thus, although nitrate concentrations and N2O emissions following urea deposition were determined by the soil ψ and ρb conditions in the short-term, our results indicate that changes in the population sizes of denitrifiers and AOB in ruminant urine patches may influence environmental N fluxes in the long-term.

Limited information is available on the potential of subsoil and underlying alluvial gravels (vadose zone) to denitrify leached nitrate, though it is recognized that C availability is an important constraint. In this laboratory study, we used samples ( 2 O–N kg −1 h −1 ) compared with those reported for topsoils. The effect of the soil-derived DOC, at addition rates 16–215 mg kg −1 , on denitrification was determined in a 7-d anaerobic incubation using acetylene to block reduction of N 2 O to N 2 . There was a lag of 24–36 h, during which N 2 O production was low, followed by a period of rapid increase (36–96 h), and a final phase (120–168 h) in which N 2 O concentrations remained relatively stable. During the rapid phase, the N 2 O production rate was very high (up to 440–500 μg N kg −1 h −1 at the highest DOC addition rate) and exceeded that measured in the 8-h DEA assay (a measure of indigenous denitrifier enzymes). The post-96 h decline in N 2 O production rate was attributed to depletion of available C. The temporal pattern of CO 2 –C production was similar to that of N 2 O, though the lag period was shorter (12–24 h). The ratio of N 2 O–N to CO 2 –C increased with time; the maximum was circa 0.3:1 at the highest addition rate of hot water extractable DOC. Our results suggest that, with input of DOC substrate, alluvial gravel materials could generate enough enzyme during a 1–2 day anaerobic period to denitrify significant quantities of nitrate. However, in situ denitrification in alluvial gravels may be low because of biophysical limitations such as low C inputs of bioavailable C and anaerobicity mostly confined to localized zones or lenses.

Basel III will force banks to shift their business model from liability management, in which business decisions are made about asset volumes, with the financing found in short term wholesale markets as necessary, to asset management, in which asset volumes are constrained by the availability of funding. We find, contrary to what many have argued, that once there is a full adjustment, the costs of credit to low risk bank borrowers – the majority of customers – will be only moderately affected; but that there will a reduction in availability and higher cost at the riskier end of the credit spectrum. Alternative arrangements are therefore needed for financing of risky exposures if a fall in economic growth is to be avoided. In this context securitisation (broadly defined to include all forms of bank sponsored collateralised instrument, including covered bonds) will be of central importance. Re-establishing securitisation markets on a sounder footing appears essential, in order both to prevent a renewed credit contraction and to help prevent riskier borrowers from being cut off from credit. The shifts in bank balance sheets will also require substantial portfolio adjustments amongst long term institutional investors, from short term to long term debt and from debt to equity. The associated adjustment of both market prices and required returns can be accommodated but poses a substantial co-ordination problem and could take a long time. Finally the new liquidity rules could create new unintended systemic risks. In particular the proposed definition of eligible liquid assets is dangerously over-concentrated on government debt. The definition of should be broadened to give banks more scope to hold liquidity in the form of commercial claims; and central banks should clarify in what circumstances they will provide emergency liquidity assistance.

During the past few decades, there has been a steady shift from traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plans to defined contribution (DC) pension plans. In a DC pension plan, retirees have to make decisions on how to spend their accumulated retirement funds. Although it has been proved theoretically that annuities can provide optimal consumption during one’s retirement period, retirees’ reluctance to purchase annuities is a long-standing puzzle. Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), which considers both loss aversion and a probability transformation, can explain the low demand for immediate annuities during retirement. It also shows that retirees would be willing to buy a long-term deferred annuity at retirement. By considering each component in CPT, we find that loss aversion is the major reason that stops people from buying an annuity, while the survival rate transformation is an important factor affecting the decision of when to receive annuity incomes.

Although researchers have shown that purchasing longevity insurance at retirement guarantees pensioners of a high annual income for the rest of their lives, most retirees (who have a choice) choose to take the lump sum and self-manage the portfolio. This is a long-standing puzzle called the "annuity puzzle". This question arises in importance due to the UK government's recent changes in pension policy. This paper implements a behavioural model, the hyperbolic discount model, to analyse annuity purchase decisions. We give an explanation for the low demand of immediate annuity at retirement, and uncover the high desirability of long-term deferred annuities for both retirees and working-age pensioners. Based on our modeling result, a 65-year-old individual would like to pay 24% higher than the fair price for a 30-year deferred annuity. Moreover, we suggest that if governments were to introduce a pre-commitment device which requires pensioners to make annuitisation decisions 10 years before retirement, the take up rate of annuities would become higher.

Intuitively, the Fukushima disaster should have a major impact on the future of the nuclear industry. This paper argues that there are four possible answers to the question what will Fukushima change: everything because the nuclear industry cannot survive another Chernobyl; the impact will vary according to location; it is too early to determine the impact; and the nuclear industry was facing serious problems that Fukushima will do no more than exacerbate. We focus on the last answer, arguing that the new designs that were expected to be so attractive as to power a ‘Nuclear Renaissance’ were already failing. The promises that they would be safer, but simpler, therefore cheaper and more buildable were unachievable and the Renaissance in the West had already failed. If the nuclear industry is to have a future, it might be through a shift in locus from North America and Western Europe to China, Russia and India. However, it is not clear that these countries can avoid the techno-economic issues that have derailed the nuclear industry in the West. The prospect that the nuclear industry can be saved by a radical new generation of designs is a long way off and still a remote possibility.

This work studied the benefits of adding different enzyme cocktails (cellulase, xylanase, β-glucosidase) to pretreated switchgrass. Pretreatment methods included ammonia fiber expansion (AFEX), dilute-acid (DA), liquid hot water (LHW), lime, lime+ball-milling, soaking in aqueous ammonia (SAA), and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)). The compositions of the pretreated materials were analyzed and showed a strong correlation between initial xylan composition and the benefits of xylanase addition. Adding xylanase dramatically improved xylan yields for SAA (+8.4%) and AFEX (+6.3%), and showed negligible improvement (0-2%) for the pretreatments with low xylan content (dilute-acid, SO(2)). Xylanase addition also improved overall yields with lime+ball-milling and SO(2) achieving the highest overall yields from pretreated biomass (98.3% and 93.2%, respectively). Lime+ball-milling obtained an enzymatic yield of 92.3kg of sugar digested/kg of protein loaded.

Six biomass pretreatment processes to convert switchgrass to fermentable sugars and ultimately to cellulosic ethanol are compared on a consistent basis in this technoeconomic analysis. The six pretreatment processes are ammonia fiber expansion (AFEX), dilute acid (DA), lime, liquid hot water (LHW), soaking in aqueous ammonia (SAA), and sulfur dioxide-impregnated steam explosion (SO(2)). Each pretreatment process is modeled in the framework of an existing biochemical design model so that systematic variations of process-related changes are consistently captured. The pretreatment area process design and simulation are based on the research data generated within the Biomass Refining Consortium for Applied Fundamentals and Innovation (CAFI) 3 project. Overall ethanol production, total capital investment, and minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) are reported along with selected sensitivity analysis. The results show limited differentiation between the projected economic performances of the pretreatment options, except for processes that exhibit significantly lower monomer sugar and resulting ethanol yields.

For this project, six chemical pretreatments were compared for the Consortium for Applied Fundamentals and Innovation (CAFI): ammonia fiber expansion (AFEX), dilute sulfuric acid (DA), lime, liquid hot water (LHW), soaking in aqueous ammonia (SAA), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). For each pretreatment, a material balance was analyzed around the pretreatment, optional post-washing step, and enzymatic hydrolysis of Dacotah switchgrass. All pretreatments + enzymatic hydrolysis solubilized over two-thirds of the available glucan and xylan. Lime, post-washed LHW, and SO2 achieved >83% total glucose yields. Lime, post-washed AFEX, and DA achieved >83% total xylose yields. Alkaline pretreatments, except AFEX, solubilized the most lignin and a portion of the xylan as xylo-oligomers. As pretreatment pH decreased, total solubilized xylan and released monomeric xylose increased. Low temperature-long time or high temperature-short time pretreatments are necessary for high glucose release from late-harvest Dacotah switchgrass but high temperatures may cause xylose degradation.

The US Department of Energy-funded Biomass Refining CAFI (Consortium for Applied Fundamentals and Innovation) project has developed leading pretreatment technologies for application to switchgrass and has evaluated their effectiveness in recovering sugars from the coupled operations of pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Key chemical and physical characteristics have been determined for pretreated switchgrass samples. Several analytical microscopy approaches utilizing instruments in the Biomass Surface Characterization Laboratory (BSCL) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have been applied to untreated and CAFI-pretreated switchgrass samples. The results of this work have shown that each of the CAFI pretreatment approaches on switchgrass result in different structural impacts at the plant tissue, cellular, and cell wall levels. Some of these structural changes can be related to changes in chemical composition upon pretreatment. There are also apparently different structural mechanisms that are responsible for achieving the highest enzymatic hydrolysis sugar yields.

The High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) has exerted a peculiar attraction over nuclear engineers. Despite many unsuccessful attempts over half a century to develop it as a commercial power reactor, there is still a strong belief amongst many nuclear advocates that a highly successful HTGR technology will emerge. The most recent attempt to commercialize an HTGR design, the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR), was abandoned in 2010 after 12 years of effort and the expenditure of a large amount of South African public money. This article reviews this latest attempt to commercialize an HTGR design and attempts to identify which issues have led to its failure and what lessons can be learnt from this experience. It concludes that any further attempts to develop HTGRs using Pebble Bed technology should only be undertaken if there is a clear understanding of why earlier attempts have failed and a high level of confidence that earlier problems have been overcome. It argues that the PBMR project has exposed serious weaknesses in accountability mechanisms for the expenditure of South African public money.

Squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) of minor salivary gland origin are extremely rare. We present an unusual case of a 29-year-old female patient who presented with a well-differentiated SCC of minor salivary gland origin arising in the lower lip. Wedge resections of the lip, including bilateral mental nerve excision, were required to clear the tumor because of striking pathological evidence of perineural invasion distant from the primary tumor site.

In 1987, the UK Conservative Party was re-elected promising to transform the electricity industry into a privatised competitive industry and to promote an expansion of nuclear power. Fulfilling both objectives was not possible. The nuclear plants were withdrawn from the sale and plans to build new plants were abandoned, but privatisation proceeded. In 2007, the Labour government began a new attempt to build nuclear plants to operate in the competitive electricity market, promising that no subsidies would be offered to them. By 2010, the utilities that were planning to build nuclear plants were beginning to suggest that ‘support’ in some form would be needed if they were to build new plants. More surprisingly, the energy regulator, Ofgem, cast doubt on whether a competitive wholesale electricity market would provide security of supply. In 1990, the UK government opted for a competitive electricity market over expanding nuclear power. Now, the option of opting for a competitive electricity market may not exist. However, this might not leave the way open for new nuclear plants. The expected cost of power from new nuclear plants is now so high that no more than one or two heavily subsidised plants will be built.

We examine the role of market structure in identifying microstructure features of the NYSE.Euronext-LIFFE STIR futures market by comparing the ability of two bid–ask spread component models to explain bid–ask spreads. These two models differ only in their assumptions about whether or not market makers are present. The period we analyze includes data from pit-based trading alongside electronic market data. We explore how market structure affects the way private information influences bid–ask spreads and return volatility. A second part of our study employs intraday correlation to investigate these links in greater depth, while a third part looks at how private information and trading noise contribute to price evolution.

A novel isoflavan-4-ol (pumilanol), ( re l)-3β-(2′-hydroxy-4′,5′-methylenedioxyphenyl)-6-methoxy-4α,7-dihydroxybenzo-3,4-dihydropyran ( 1 ) and two known flavonoids, tephrinone ( 2 ) and rotenone ( 3 ) together with lupeol and stigmasterol were isolated from the roots of Tephrosia pumila (Fabaceae) from a collection made in Andhra Pradesh, India. The structures of the compounds were determined by MS, 1D and 2D-NMR spectral analysis. Pumilanol ( 1 ) exhibited significant antiprotozoal activity against T. b. rhodensiense , T. cruzi and L. donovani with IC 50 of 3.7, 3.35 and 17.2 μg/mL, respectively, but displayed high toxicity towards L-6 (IC 50 of 17.12 μg/mL) rat skeletal myoblasts.

Human exposure to air pollutants is often characterized by measured or modeled outdoor concentrations. In Western societies, subjects spend about 90% of their time indoors, of which a large fraction in their own home. Hence indoor air quality is an important determinant of the true personal exposure for many components. Indoor air quality is affected both by infiltration of outdoor air in buildings and indoor sources such as smoking, gas cooking, and use of consumer products. In this chapter we separately describe the impact of indoor sources and outdoor air on indoor pollution. We first illustrate differences in outdoor and personal exposure using data on real-time particle number concentrations from a recent study in Augsburg, Germany. We then present a model of indoor PM concentrations, illustrating the factors that affect indoor air quality. We summarize empirical studies that have assessed indoor–outdoor relationships for particle mass, particle number, and specific components of particulate matter.

The number of ultrafine particles may be a more health relevant characteristic of ambient particulate matter than the conventionally measured mass. Epidemiological time series studies typically use a central site to characterize human exposure to outdoor air pollution. There is currently very limited information how well measurements at a central site reflect temporal and spatial variation across an urban area for particle number concentrations (PNC). The main objective of the study was to assess the spatial variation of PNC compared to the mass concentration of particles with diameter less than 10 or 2.5 μm (PM10 and PM2.5). Continuous measurements of PM10, PM2.5, PNC and soot concentrations were conducted at a central site during October 2002–March 2004 in four cities spread over Europe (Amsterdam, Athens, Birmingham and Helsinki). The same measurements were conducted directly outside 152 homes spread over the metropolitan areas. Each home was monitored during 1 week. We assessed the temporal correlation and the variability of absolute concentrations. For all particle indices, including particle number, temporal correlation of 24-h average concentrations was high. The median correlation for PNC per city ranged between 0.67 and 0.76. For PM2.5 median correlation ranged between 0.79 and 0.98. The median correlation for hourly average PNC was lower (range 0.56–0.66). Absolute concentration levels varied substantially more within cities for PNC and coarse particles than for PM2.5. Measurements at the central site reflected the temporal variation of 24-h average concentrations for all particle indices at the selected homes across the urban area. A central site could not assess absolute concentrations across the urban areas for particle number.

Recent research has confirmed the behaviour of traders that significant excess returns can be achieved from following the predictions of the carry trade which involves buying currencies with relatively high short-term interest rates, or equivalently a high forward premium, and selling those with relatively low interest rates. This paper shows that similar-sized excess returns can be achieved by following a trend-following strategy which buys long positions in currencies that have achieved positive returns and otherwise holds cash. We demonstrate that market risk is an important determinant of carry returns but that the standard unconditional CAPM is inadequate in explaining the cross-section of forward premium ordered portfolio returns. We also show that the downside risk CAPM fails to explain this cross-section, in contrast to recent literature. A conditional CAPM which makes the impact of the market return as a risk factor depend on a measure of market liquidity performs very well in explaining more than 90% of the variation in portfolio returns and more than 90% of the average returns to the carry trade. Trend following is found to provide a significant hedge against these risks. The performance of the trend following factor is more surprising given that it does not have the negative skewness or maximum drawdown characteristic which is shown by the carry trade factor.