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The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change introduced Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) into the process. INDCs share many features of pledges, i.e. public statements by parties in which they announce how they will behave in the social dilemma in the future. Prior evidence on how pledges enhance cooperation is inconclusive, however. We explore how differences in the information about pledgers' trustworthiness affect outcomes in a social dilemma that parallels climate change. In an online experiment, two participants interact with a randomly matched third player in a repeat maintenance game with a pledge stage. Treatments manipulate whether the third player is more or less trustworthy; and whether trustworthiness is observable. Disentangling composition and information effects, we find that only trustworthy pledgers can leverage the pledge stage for cooperation. This can explain evidence from social dilemmas such as international climate policy that reputational mechanisms in International Environmental Agreements are only effective when high-reputation countries are involved. • Prior evidence on how pledges enhance cooperation is inconclusive. • An experiment manipulates a pledger's trustworthiness and others' awareness thereof. • We find that only trustworthy pledgers can leverage the pledge stage for cooperation. • This can explain evidence from social dilemmas such as international climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• SCMR achieves better performance than CMEMS and ESA CCI in the northern SCS. • Variation reveals a non-linear feature of sea level trends from offshore oceans to coasts. • The impact of ENSO signals on the sea level trends along the Chinese coast is dampened. With improved altimeter data near the coast, it is possible to use them in analysis of coastal sea level trends. In this study, we assess the sea level trends over January 2002-April 2022 with the SCMR-reprocessed altimeter dataset in the coastal zone of the northern South China Sea (SCS). The reliability of this dataset is confirmed by the inter-comparison with the CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) Level-3 along-track data product and the ESA CCI (European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative) v2.2 virtual station product, along with the validation against tide gauge records. Compared to two altimeter products, the SCMR has a higher number of data points for the analysis of sea level trends in the study region (28439 vs 1408 for CMEMS and 868 for ESA CCI). The monthly SLA time series from the SCMR dataset are more consistent with those from tide gauge records in terms of higher correlation coefficients (0.37–0.83) and lower root mean square of the differences (RMSD, 33.98–92.19 mm) between altimeter and tide gauge. The along-track sea level trends within the 0–20 km coastal strip range between 2–5 mm yr−1, and the degradation of sea level trends occurs when the along-track trends show significant fluctuations at the spatial scales of ∼ 300 m. Therefore, a further data editing strategy is recommended in this regard. We also find that the ENSO-related signals mainly impact on sea levels in the west of Luzon Strait and of the Philippine coast, but are dampened along the Chinese coast over 2002–2022. The regional mean sea level trend is reduced from 3.54 ± 0.85 mm yr−1 to 3.00 ± 0.84 mm yr−1 after removing the ENSO-related low-frequency variability. Finally, the variation of sea level trends from offshore oceans to coasts is found to be nonlinear, indicating the complexity of sea level changes in the study area. The blending of tide gauge records and the SCMR dataset has been successfully conducted in four tide gauges over a longer period of January 1993-April 2022, which would contribute to the analysis of long-term sea level trends at the local scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Higher fertility rate induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. • The three-child policy slightly increases fertility intention. • The three-child policy increases emission abatement of the designed emission trading scheme. • In emission trading scheme, technological progress increases GDP and decreases total emissions. • The three-child policy strengthens technological impacts on GDP but weakens technological impacts on emissions. Although population growth plays a vital role in driving anthropogenic climate change, fertility impact on achieving mitigation target is usually overlooked in literature. This paper attempts to narrow the research gap by employing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the interrelations among fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy in China. The model results show that fertility rate negatively correlates with GDP and emissions because higher fertility induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. The three-child policy raises fertility intention; it does not unidirectionally influence the effects of the emission trading scheme (ETS) on employment and GDP, but it increases ETS emission abatement. Technological progress increases GDP and decreases emissions; the three-child policy strengthens technological impact on GDP but weakens technological impact on emissions. Hence, technological progress benefits emission mitigation; the three-child policy enhances economic benefits but impairs emission abatement of technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses time-varying causalities between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and green finance market, and filling the research gap in revealing their internal dynamic connections. Using rolling-window technique, the empirical findings demonstrate that CPU exert positive and negative impact on green finance market, represented by the green bond index (GBI) during certain time intervals, which do not entirely support theoretical basis. Similarly, the study also uncovers inconsistent conclusions regarding the influence from GBI to CPU among different causal periods, indicating the function of green finance in alleviating climate change is complex. These deviations between variables can be attributed to factors, such as early-stage green bond market, shifts in climate policies, the impact of COVID-19, and underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. The study identifies heterogeneities of the causal relationships in different time intervals, and the bidirectional influence under specific circumstances, offering fresh insights for existing theoretical framework. Several policy implications are thus provided from multiple aspects, such as standardization of green bonds, innovation of green financial instruments, and development of long-term climate governance strategies. These measures can facilitate a positive role for climate policy and green finance in pursuing harmonious development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we examine the influential role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in shaping climate policy in Tunisia. Tunisia is a critical front in the global green transition. Our findings highlight how improved working conditions significantly increase NGO participation in climate initiatives, underscoring the value of a supportive operating environment. Growing professionalism within NGOs is particularly influencing strategic development in areas such as the Resilience 2050 and Low Carbon Economy 2050 programs. The interplay between NGOs and government agencies emerges as a transformative factor; exclusion from policymaking processes can lead some NGOs to intensify their climate action, while collaboration with governments and access to international funding generally strengthen NGOs' commitment to broader climate agendas. We also explore the influence of resource constraints on NGOs' ability to multitask, and the link between financial stability and political engagement. Our study highlights the importance of fostering robust NGO-government partnerships that balance local insights with global perspectives for effective climate action, and points to the need for such collaborations to support Tunisia's green transition within the broader context of global climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Turbulent times exacerbate financial instability and climate risks. • Amplifying effect of financial instability on climate policy uncertainty. • Climate policy uncertainty contributes to worsening financial instability. • Findings support climate fragility hypothesis from a macro-perspective. • Implications for integrating climate factors into decision-making. This study presents a novel investigation of the reciprocal relationship between financial instability and climate risks, focusing on the influence of climate policy uncertainty within the US financial system from a macroeconomic perspective. By adopting the bootstrap rolling-window causality method, the analysis captures structural changes over an extended period between January 2000 and March 2021. Importantly, this method provides a robust data-driven approach, avoiding ad hoc assumptions about temporal breakpoints. The results support the climate fragility hypothesis, highlighting the amplifying effect of financial instability on climate risks. The study reveals that periods of economic and political turbulence exacerbate these effects by generating substantial financial turbulence, which, in turn, influences climate policy. The results also indicate that climate policy uncertainty contributes to worsening financial instability during critical events such as sudden changes in interest rates and major financial crises. The implications of this research extend to policymakers and investors, encouraging them to integrate climate factors into decision-making processes and adopt sustainable practices to promote financial stability and mitigate climate-related risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Morocco's commitment to the Marrakech and Paris Agreements' sustainability goals necessitates the implementation of Net Zero Energy Building (NZEB) initiatives to mitigate climate change and promote sustainable development for the built environment industry. Utilizing Morocco's abundant solar resources, NZEBs aim to minimize energy use and carbon emissions in buildings, aligning with global climate objectives and enhancing economic stability through reduced energy costs. This approach aids Morocco in adapting to climate change and achieving international financial and environmental targets. This paper explores Morocco's energy strategy and the regulatory framework for Nearly Zero Energy Buildings, providing a NZEB definition, assessment metrics, and performance indicators, while addressing the challenges posed by existing laws on energy-efficient buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the role of expectations and monetary policy in the economy's response to climate actions. We show that in a stochastic environment, without the standard assumption of the perfect rationality of agents, there is more uncertainty regarding the path and the economic impact of a climate policy, with a potential threat to the ability of central banks to maintain price stability. Market beliefs and behavioral agents increase the trade-offs inherent to the chosen mitigation tool, with a carbon tax entailing more emissions uncertainty than in a rational expectations model and a cap-and-trade scheme implying a more pronounced pressure on allowance prices and inflation. The impact on price stability is worsened by delays in the implementation of stringent climate policies, the lack of confidence in the ability of central banks to keep inflation under control, and the adoption of monetary rules tied to expectations rather than current macroeconomic conditions. Central banks can implement successful stabilization policies that reduce the uncertainty surrounding the impact of climate actions and support the greening process while remaining within their mandate. • This work investigates how expectations can shape a green transition. • Without fully rational agents impacts of climate policy are more uncertain. • Carbon taxes and cap-and-trade's drawbacks are enlarged by non-fully-rational agents. • Delayed action and low credibility in central banks cause major inflationary pressure. • A reactive monetary policy can reduce uncertainty on climate policies' impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National hydrogen strategies are emerging as a critical pillar of climate change policy. For homes connected to the gas grid, hydrogen may offer an alternative decarbonisation pathway to electrification. Hydrogen production pathways in countries such as the UK will involve both the gas network and the electricity grid, with related policy choices and investment decisions impacting the potential configuration of consumer acceptance for hydrogen homes. Despite the risk of public resistance, be it on environmental, economic, or social grounds, few studies have explored the emerging contours of domestic hydrogen acceptance. To date, there is scarce evidence on public perceptions of national hydrogen policy and the extent to which attitudes may be rooted in prior knowledge and awareness, or open to change following information provision and engagement. In response, this study evaluates consumer preferences for a low-carbon energy future, wherein parts of the UK housing stock may adopt low-carbon hydrogen boilers and hobs. Drawing on data from online focus groups, we examine consumer perceptions of the government's twin-track approach, which envisions important roles for both 'blue' and 'green' hydrogen to meet net zero ambitions. Through a mixed-methods, multigroup analysis, the underlying motivation is to explore whether the twin-track approach appears compatible with hydrogen acceptance. Moving forward, hydrogen policy should ensure greater transparency concerning the benefits, costs, and risks of the transition, with clearer communication about the justification for supporting respective hydrogen production pathways. • The UK public appears receptive to the launch of a national hydrogen strategy. • Negative perceptions of the twin-track production approach stem from misconceptions. • Blue hydrogen requires explanation and justification to preempt social resistance. • Consumer buy-in hinges on access to reliable and transparent sources of information. • Hedonic and cost concerns typically outweigh climate change considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Space-based data provide essential information on the past, current, and future state of climate change. Satellite data widely contribute to scientific research conducted by recognized institutions such as the IPCC, which underpin most climate policies in Europe. In addition, half of the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), which are necessary to monitor climate change, directly come from satellite data. However, the role of space is not always accurately reflected in Europe's climate policies, with only a few direct references to ESA's or EU's space programmes and data. Against this background, this paper aims to provide an in-depth assessment on the actual role played by space-based data in the definition and implementation of European climate policies. Based on the outcomes of a year-long research conducted in collaboration with the European Space Agency, the paper will first analysed the use and references to space-based data in over 500 climate policy documents of the 22 ESA Member States. Subsequently, it will address some potential blocking points to the use of space in the climate policymaking process in the analysed European countries. By doing so, the paper will also look into aspects related to science communication, the science-to-policy divide as well as the climate governance in ESA Member States. Finally, this paper will provide recommendations to increase the use of space-based data in the climate policymaking process. • Climate policies in ESA Member States show that references to Essential Climate Variables are abundant. • The origin of the data or the systems used to generate variables are not referenced despite half of variables being only measurable from space. • All ESA Member States reference space in their climate policies. • 17 ESA Member States have reference ESA in their climate policies. • A blocking point to the integration of space-based data in climate policies pertain to the science to policy divide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chilean Climate Change Law excludes tree monocultures as a solution to the climate crisis, offering an opportunity for resilience and climate mitigation in Latin America. The Chilean experience with mega-fires in extensive, homogeneous forest plantations provides important lessons that could inform climate policies in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the conduction mechanism between climate risk and climate policy uncertainty is crucial to enhance global environmental governance. The analysis uses the full- and sub-sample methodologies to recognise the correlation between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and U.S. climate policy uncertainty (CPU). The quantitative analysis shows favorable and adverse effects from SOI to CPU, where the La Nina phenomena accompany the positive impacts, and the negative influences are related to the El Nino events. This conclusion highlights that climate change risks would bring more uncertainties to climate policies in the U.S., which is not conducive to enhancing global environmental governance. In turn, CPU exerts an adverse impact on SOI during the Trump administration, suggesting that high uncertainty of U.S. climate policies weakens the ability to cope with the global climate crisis, intensifying climate change risks such as the occurrence of El Nino phenomena. Under the severe climate crisis and extreme weather background, this discussion would put forward significant lessons for improving global environmental governance by effectively preventing and responding to climate changes, ensuring the continuity and consistency of climate policies, and strengthening international cooperation on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial turning point has been achieved in the global energy transition with an increased emphasis on renewable energy sources. This study investigates the time-varying effects of climate policy uncertainty on various types of renewable energy consumption. Initially, we scrutinize the influence of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on energy consumption by employing the conventional Granger causality test. Our results reveal that CPU insignificantly affects hydroelectric, biomass, and geothermal energy consumption, whereas it significantly affects wind and solar energy. To further understand the dynamic nature of these impacts, we utilize a unique time-varying Granger causality test, incorporating three distinct algorithms. Using a time-varying testing window, we find that CPU exerts an insignificant effect on geothermal energy but produces a significant, albeit discontinuous, effect on other renewable energy sources throughout the sampling period. Furthermore, this study extends its analysis to examine the effect on overall renewable energy consumption. Our investigation highlights the need for decision-makers in each energy sector to account for the potential risks arising due to changes in climate policy over different periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against the background of growing concern about climate change, this study attempts to examine the impact of US climate policy uncertainty on exchange rate volatility. Specifically, this paper explores whether climate policy changes and their extreme observations, as well as the short-term asymmetry of exchange rate volatility, can help predict future exchange rate volatilities. The in-sample estimation results show that the uncertainty of US climate policy significantly affects the volatility of the US exchange rate, and extreme positive shocks of climate policy uncertainty have a greater impact on the exchange rate than extreme negative shocks of the same magnitude. In addition, we find significant asymmetries in the short-term components of exchange rate volatility, especially in the USD-CNY exchange rate and the USD-EUR exchange rate. Multiple out-of-sample forecasting tests show that models incorporating extreme values of climate policy uncertainty exhibit superior forecasting performance. Notably, the predictive performance of these models tends to be stronger during periods of low volatility and relatively weak during periods of high volatility. This paper provides valuable insights for stakeholders to make informed decisions and optimize strategies in the face of uncertain climate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stringent climate policy compatible with the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement would pose a substantial fiscal challenge. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 95% or more by 2050 would raise 7% (1%–17%) of GDP in carbon tax revenue, half of current, global tax revenue. Revenues are relatively larger in poorer regions. Subsidies for carbon dioxide sequestration would amount to 6.6% (0.3–7.1%) of GDP. These numbers are conservative as they were estimated using models that assume first-best climate policy implementation and ignore the costs of raising revenue. The fiscal challenge rapidly shrinks if emission targets are relaxed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For several decades, modal shift within the freight transport sector has been promoted by policy makers as an important basis for achieving lower transport emission targets. Even though the literature on mode choice is well established, there is less consensus about the volume of freight with the potential to shift and, more importantly, the actual contribution of freight modal shift to achieving less climate and air pollution impacts. The climate contribution of freight modal shift can be increasingly questioned, as decarbonization is taking place at increasing rates within road freight transport. In this paper, the role of modal shift policies in realizing climate objectives is scrutinized by focusing on the case of Sweden, which serves to illustrate some general insights. We highlight how modal shift is often analyzed and discussed in isolation, even though it forms an important part of a policy mix in which it may contribute to achieving climate objectives. Treating modal shift as an objective in its own right may render less effective and cost-efficient policy instruments. • The climate contribution of freight modal shift is increasingly questioned. • The role of modal shift policies in realizing climate objectives is scrutinized by focusing on the case of Sweden. • Modal shift is often analyzed and discussed in isolation. • Treating modal shift as an objective in its own right may render policy instruments less effective and cost-efficient, [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A thorough understanding of carbon lock-in is an essential precondition for the effective design and continuous improvement of climate policy. Based on a balanced panel dataset of 30 provinces in China during the period 2002–2021, we explore the nexus between smart transportation and carbon lock-in using the System-Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) model. We also investigate the heterogeneous, asymmetric, and threshold effects among the above two issues, and examine three internal impact mechanisms. We thus arrive at the following four main conclusions: (1) Smart transportation significantly reduces carbon lock-in, highlighting its importance in eradicating carbon lock-in. (2) Smart transportation has the most pronounced impact on carbon lock-in in the central region, and can effectively mitigate all aspects of carbon lock-in, especially industry lock-in and institution lock-in. (3) Smart transportation is more effective in alleviating carbon lock-in in provinces with a higher level of carbon lock-in. Moreover, a threshold of environmental regulation exists between smart transportation and carbon lock-in, with stricter environmental regulation leading to a stronger carbon lock-in reduction effect of smart transportation. (4) Smart transportation indirectly influences carbon lock-in through three channels of economic scale, industrial structure upgrading, and technological innovation. Based on these findings, we propose some policy recommendations for smart transportation development and carbon lock-in mitigation. • This paper examines the carbon unlocking effect of smart transportation. • Smart transportation significantly alleviates carbon lock-in in China. • Smart transportation exerts heterogeneous and asymmetric effects on carbon lock-in. • The nexus between smart transportation and carbon lock-in has an environmental regulation threshold effect. • Scale, structure, and technology effects are three influence channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International bureaucracies, also called International Public Administrations (IPAs), have been identified as potentially influential actors within the global climate change regime complex. To assess how these organizations exert influence, scholars have predominantly relied on case studies, interviews and descriptive (network) statistics. This article aims to contribute to this literature with a systematic analysis that is not limited to an organization, issue or region, but applies exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to data from an original large-N survey (n = 342) of participants of global climate negotiations. Our findings indicate that IPAs have a considerable potential to influence global climate policy outputs. This potential influence is associated with the information they provide to regime stakeholders. • International Public Administrations (IPAs) exert influence in the global climate governance network. • IPA influence in the network is strongly associated with the information they provide to other actors. • ERGMs based on egocentrically sampled data are a useful technique to examine the influence of IPAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined how scientific information influences policy beliefs among organizations in climate change policy networks in Germany and Japan. Different combinations of information types, policy beliefs, and organizational roles were found to play instrumental roles. Ideational influence can occur when (1) the sender is a credible information source, (2) the receiver can understand the "message," and (3) the receiver depends on the sender's information. Organizational roles involved in this ideational influence are different in technical and political information exchange. The leverage of influence depends on the organizational ecology of different roles in each country. • This policy network study examines the science-policy interface in climate policy. • QAP regression models were applied to the organizational policy beliefs. • Five different roles in scientific information exchange were identified. • The specific combinations of beliefs, info type, and organizational roles matter. • The organizational ecology in Japan and Germany decides the leverage of influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent to which a policy actor is perceived as being influential by others can shape their role in a policy process. The interest group literature has examined how the use of advocacy tactics, such as lobbying or media campaigns, contributes to an actor's perceived influence. The policy networks literature, in turn, has found that network ties and occupying certain institutional roles can explain why actors are perceived as influential. When investigating what explains perceptions of influence, interest groups scholars have not accounted for network interdependencies and network scholars have so far not examined the advocacy tactics used by interest groups. This paper addresses the gap at the intersection of these two literatures by investigating the relationship between network ties, institutional roles, advocacy tactics and the presence of influence attribution ties in climate change policy networks. Exponential random graph models are applied to network data collected from the organisations participating in the national climate change policymaking processes in six EU countries that vary by the extent to which they are majoritarian or consensual democracies: Czechia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Portugal, and Sweden. The results show that network ties and institutional roles are better predictors of influence attribution ties than advocacy tactics and that there is no pattern in the relationship between advocacy tactics and influence attribution ties across different institutional contexts. These findings suggest that because influence is primarily associated with structural factors (network ties and institutional roles) that more established policy actors are likely to have more influence, which may inhibit the need for a significant step change in climate policies. • This paper investigates what determines perceptions of influence in climate change policy networks. • Network ties and institutional roles are better predictors of influence than advocacy tactics. • Advocacy tactics rest on relational assumptions, and as such, can be fruitfully integrated with the policy network approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Investigates stability and change of actors in issues in a mature policy discourse. • Applies a temporal network analysis of the policy discourse in three subsequent periods. • Shows how international and national policy processes trigger change in the discourse coalitions over time. • Shows that key actors and most salient issues remain stable in a policy discourse linked to a mature policy subsystem. Policy discourses are important platforms for political actors to express their preferences on certain issues and are usually linked to a specific policy subsystem. From a research perspective, they have the potential to indicate ideological coalitions, policy change and learning. Using discourse network analysis, we identify core policy actors, issues, and coalitions in Switzerland's climate policy discourse and investigate how they have evolved over the past 15 years. In line with the policy process literature, we expected to see more stability than change in the discourse linked to the mature climate policy subsystem. However, our results have shown that policy discourses are more volatile than policy subsystems, and that national and international policy developments are able to trigger change, particularly in terms of the configuration of actor coalitions and the issues discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The Advocacy Coalition Framework focuses on beliefs external to policy networks. • Micro-structural network processes are also key drivers of informal policy networks. • We combine these approaches in an ERGM of a Canadian collaboration policy network. • Beliefs about carbon taxes, LNG and oil sands are related to tie formation. • Reciprocity, local connectivity and transitive closure are also related to tie formation. Extant research on policy networks tends to focus on explaining successes and/or failures of particular policy efforts. One commonly used theoretical framework – the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) – focuses on actor attributes external to policy networks. We argue this leads to an incomplete understanding of the social dynamics of climate change policy making. We incorporate a policy network analytic approach with the ACF in an ERGM of collaboration in a Canadian climate change policy network, showing the role micro-structural network processes play in giving rise to informal policy networks. We find certain policy beliefs are correlated with tie formation. We also find micro-structural network processes related to reciprocity, structural equivalence and transitive closure are correlated with tie formation. We argue combining these two prominent streams of policy network literature has potential to improve our understanding of climate change policy making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impacts of economic (in)stability on carbon emissions and the role of renewable energy in these effects at the crossroads of accelerated climate change and rising global economic instability. The paper hypothesizes that these implications should be examined not by direct impacts across variables, but rather via indirect effects serially mediated by renewable energy consumption and economic growth. This paper analyzes the United States from January 1980 and April 2022 using manifest structural equation modeling. The paper reaches two major conclusions. First, there are clear distinctions between (i) the direct and indirect effects of economic stability, surrogated by inflation and policy interest rate, on carbon emissions, (ii) the symmetric and asymmetric indirect effects, and (iii) the roles of aggregate renewable energy and its components, such as biomass and hydropower energy use, in mediating these symmetric and asymmetric indirect effects. Second, renewable energy significantly reduces the carbon-increasing effects of inflation and interest rates. The paper contains proper policy suggestions based on the findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy support is often measured by asking respondents to evaluate policies linked to an isolated policy goal. However, in real-world settings, policies usually have multiple implications. We study how people react when policies have negative implications for other valued goals, considering both their level of support and the certainty of their choices. Using survey experiment data collected in Germany in 2020 (N = 2233) that measures people's support for climate policies with or without information about negative implications for different societal groups, we find that people decrease their policy support and become less certain about their choices when faced with negative implications for vulnerable groups. This effect is partially moderated by people's climate change concern and their support for government assistance for such groups. We thus contribute to the understanding of people's policy decision-making, with implications for the measurement of public support and the development of effective climate policies. • People decrease their climate policy support and become less certain about their choices when faced with trade-offs. • Their reaction is partially moderated by people's climate change concern and their support for conflicting goals with negative implications for vulnerable groups. • People's support for climate policies is measured with a survey experiment to approximate real-world conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock production is affected by climate change, but also contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to ambiguity in how livestock are framed in climate and development policy processes. We use the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to investigate the role of knowledge brokers in Kenyan livestock and climate change policy processes. We analyse how knowledge brokers deal with ambiguity from different problem and response framings within science-policy interfaces using the case of a project that seeks to inform Kenyan policies relevant to livestock and climate change. We identify ambiguity within the problem stream where actors recognise adaptation and mitigation as dual challenges of livestock and climate change. This ambiguity creates tension between actors but can be strategically deployed to help match the problem and policy streams. Actors use the terms 'climate smart' and 'co-benefits' to link the dual adaptation and mitigation needs. In the political stream, nationally defined priorities and external funding possibilities influence the political will and motivation to adopt identified response options. There are opportunities for knowledge brokers to address the ambiguities and translate knowledge during windows of opportunity when the streams are being coupled, but challenges exist, resulting in slow and inadequate development of policies. This paper makes two contributions to the MSF literature. First, we further refine the concept of knowledge brokers and establish their role across all three streams. Second, we apply the MSF in a lower income country and demonstrate that international organizations must be among the actors considered. • Ambiguity surrounds livestock; they are affected by and contribute to climate change. • Knowledge brokers in Kenya frame issues, offer solutions and influence politics. • International actors shape problem framing and solutions around livestock in Kenya. • The MSF needs to be adapted to apply in developing country contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a new framework for assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of climate adaptation policies for the agriculture sector at the subnational level. The role of the subnational level in climate policy is highly relevant, especially on the heels of the Paris Agreement (PA) of 2015. However, there is limited literature on climate adaptation policy implementation at the subnational level in the agricultural sector. Climate adaptation policy in agriculture is generally discussed at the national level, and subnational climate adaptation policies rarely address agriculture. Thus, this study was conducted to fill this gap by establishing an analytical framework based on the two existing literatures, which are not connected: climate adaptation policies at the subnational level and adaptation policies in the agricultural sector. The core components of the framework are (i) locally driven initiatives, (ii) locally capable institutions, (iii) legally implementable measures, and (iv) effective intergovernmental relations. The framework is then applied to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Punjab, two provinces in Pakistan, a country highly dependent on the agricultural sector and one of the most vulnerable to climatic changes. We found that both provinces have locally driven policies and have made efforts to build capabilities in their public administrations to adapt to climate change in the agriculture sector. Punjab has advanced in several indicators of the components of the framework but still is weak in others, such as local monitoring and evaluation efforts. KPK has interesting efforts in the dissemination of farmers' adaptation innovative initiatives (hidden adaptation), but still lags behind in the legal base for the policies. Finally, both provinces lack strong institutions for intergovernmental relations. • Climate change has produced real threat especially for developing world. • Climate change has posed unprecedented impacts on the agriculture sector. • Subnational governments are key in adaptation to climate change. • Framework for climate adaptation policies at subnational level is imperative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important development partners encouraged and supported the development of Caribbean islands' recent action plans and targets on climate change and health. These developments are part of larger global trends around mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national health policy. Including community voices is crucial, yet the responsiveness of regional and national processes around climate change adaptation and health governance to local community concerns is poorly understood. This case study in rural Trinidad and Tobago sought to contribute to better understanding community led action on health and climate change adaptation by investigating community groups' perceptions of the challenges faced and addressed by their community. The study contributes to climate change adaptation and health debates in three main ways. First, it develops a conceptual framework around agency in the context of health and climate change adaptation in community groups and local spaces. Second, it fills a gap in the literature by registering the voices and perspectives of coastal community groups regarding their development priorities in the context of climate change adaptation and health. Third, using the lens of agency, it highlights the disconnect between local voices and the urgency around the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation and health into regional and national climate change adaptation policies. This study contributes to wider debates around the power of external agents to shape local discourses and policy. The results contrast dominant global narratives underlying recent regional and national policies and suggest that this area is still one where there may be a disconnect between local development priorities and international policy. • Rural community groups have unique insights on climate and health. • Rural community groups should have more agency in climate and health policy. • There is a disconnect between local community priorities and regional and national climate-health goals. • Rural community groups felt alienated from climate-health governance processes. • Rural community action requires external support for sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between climate risk and climate policy uncertainty, and CO2 emissions in the US over the 2000–2022 period using a structural Factor- Augmented Vector AutoRegression (FAVAR) model with a two-step principal component analysis based on monthly observations. We employ a very recent measure to proxy for uncertainty regarding climate policy based on the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index (CPU) of Gavriilidis (2021), while Climate Risk is proxied by financial cost of natural disasters and number of deaths. We use different variables for CO2 emissions, based on total and sectoral emission (commercial, electric power, residential sector, transportation, and industrial sector). The results indicate that a significant percentage of the variance of CO2 emissions in the US, is explained by Natural Disasters Cost, which also seem to account for a significant percentage of the US Total Renewable Energy Consumption variance. Shocks to disaster costs seem to decrease all type of emissions significantly and also increase renewable energy use significantly. Natural disasters increase political disagreement among U.S. politicians, as well as, the climate policy uncertainty, highlighting the need for efficient policymaking and regulations. In further results, we find that an increase in Partisan Conflict decreases emissions and explains a significant amount of renewable energy variance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the immense pressure on politicians across the globe to implement efficient yet socially-accepted climate policies, research on policy acceptance becomes increasingly important. Several studies could contribute to the understanding of what affects policy acceptance, but their methodological approaches usually assess isolated solutions instead of policy mixes and do not display the various impacts of presented policies. Most often, these studies lack a critical self-evaluation of such methodological drawbacks. In this paper we present and evaluate an innovative citizen choice experiment tool (called Participatory Value Evaluation, PVE), in which people are asked to select intensity levels for eleven transport policies, while simultaneously seeing the environmental, social and financial impacts of their choices. We evaluate the PVE and its contents and features regarding its (scientific) C redibility, (political & societal) RE levance and (societal) LE gitimacy (subsumed as CRELE framework) as a prerequisite for supporting socially-accepted policy-making. For this purpose, 601 open text survey answers regarding the strengths and potential improvements of the tool are analyzed by means of a qualitative content analysis. Descriptive statistics of the survey participants are used to further enrich the analysis. Based on this evidence, we can conclude that the PVE is indeed a credible, relevant and legitimate tool for assessing policy options. Participants positively highlighted the tool's ability to credibly visualize the impacts of selected policies, thereby raising awareness for the severity of climate change and the required policy response. Ambivalent answers were received regarding the social fairness of included measures and the preferred complexity of the tool. • CRELE framework was used to assess the PVE's (a participatory survey tool) ability to support climate policy development. • Relevance: participants acknowledge the relevance of climate change and the need for action in the transport sector. • Credibility: participants display high trust towards scientific knowledge and support their involvement in policy processes. • Legitimacy: social fairness of measures is a crucial and possibly dividing aspects of policies and needs more consideration. • The PVE combined with participatory processes may foster the acceptance of unavoidable yet uncomfortable policy impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the effect of strategic ambiguity and heterogeneous attitudes towards such ambiguity on optimal mitigation and adaptation. Pessimistic players tend to invest more in mitigation, while optimists favor adaptation. When adaptation is more expensive than mitigation, three types of equilibria can obtain depending on the level and distribution of ambiguity aversion: (i) a mitigation equilibrium, (i i) an adaptation equilibrium and (i i i) a mixed equilibrium with both adaptation and mitigation. The interaction between ambiguity attitudes and wealth distribution plays a crucial role for the aggregate environmental policy: a wealth transfer from pessimistic to optimistic agents increases total mitigation. A similar result applies to the choice of an optimal mitigation subsidy, which is shown to increase in optimism, but decrease following a transfer of income towards the more optimistic players. Finally, we show that under strategic ambiguity, the introduction of a non-binding standard can impact agents' beliefs about their opponents' behavior and as a result lower total equilibrium mitigation. Our results highlight the necessity to consider attitudes towards strategic ambiguity in the design of economic policies targeting climate change. They might also shed some light on the slow rate of convergence of environmental policies across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands are significant to global efforts to combat climate change. However, to date, they have been a missing piece in the climate change mitigation policy puzzle in the European Union (EU). Taking a policy coherence perspective, we investigate how policies from different governance levels—that is, EU, member state, and regional levels—support and impede existing and new policies for climate-friendly peatland usage. We put a particular focus on incentive-based policy instruments, because such incentives are often advocated as promising policy instruments for supporting the transition to the sustainable management of peatlands. We selected the three peatland-rich EU countries Finland, Germany, and the Netherlands. Based on semi-structured interviews with 35 experts, we indicate a lack of horizontal policy coherence between agriculture, nature conservation, water management, forestry, energy, and climate policies in terms of climate change mitigation measures on peatlands. At the EU level, most prominently, the Common Agricultural Policy counteracts climate targets because direct payments currently encourage the unsustainable management of peatlands. At the national and subnational levels, water quality in Finland, nature conservation in Germany, and subsidence in the Netherlands were primary objectives of peatland relevant policies. Due to a lack of clear guidance on raising the groundwater table, the current incentive-based policy instruments are ineffective for reducing emissions. Despite its higher mitigation potential, potential incentive-based policies for rewetting encounter various regulatory barriers caused by the policy incoherence. We conclude that the transition to climate-friendly peatland usage requires coherent regulatory frameworks and incentive-based policies supporting rewetting. • We demonstrate the multi-sectoral and multi-level nature of peatland policies in the EU. • Agriculture, nature, water, and energy policies often impede horizontal coherence. • Conflicts between EU, national, and regional policies hinder vertical coherence. • Regulatory frameworks and incentive-based policies should be coherent. • Current incentive-based policy instruments are ineffective for emissions reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts vary wildly across different geographical contexts and their effects are primarily felt on the local level, generating demand for local solutions. The local level plays a key role in the adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, in most European countries adaptation has yet to be integrated comprehensively into local policy agendas. To further our understanding of this slow pace of local adaptation progress, we study 21 Swiss Alpine municipalities exposed to a variety of natural hazards and issues exacerbated by local climate change impacts. Building on established research on local natural hazard management and climate change adaptation, we expect four factors to play decisive roles, either on their own or in combination with each other: Past extreme events, risk exposure, perceived climate risk and existing adaptation policies at superordinate levels. We test these expectations using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). We find that significant past extreme events and high perceived climate risk come close to being necessary conditions for local adaptation measures. High perceived climate risk on its own is also a sufficient condition for local adaptation measures to be taken while its absence is sufficient for no local adaptation measures to be taken. Thus, the importance of climate risk perception exceeds our expectation as it has clearly been revealed to be the most important factor. Future research should focus on disentangling different levels of public risk perception further and investigate the role different levels of perception or acceptance among different actor groups play in climate policy decisions. • Extreme events and climate risk perception are important conditions for local climate change adaptation. • Climate risk perception among the populace is key to enabling local climate change adaptation. • Power of extreme events to enable policy change depends on contextual factors such as risk perception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This investigation explores the interrelation between U.S. factionalism and carbon emissions and further studies whether factionalism impedes U.S. carbon neutrality. We utilise the bootstrap full-and sub-sample techniques to identify the dynamic correlation between U.S. partisan conflict (PC) and carbon dioxide emission per capita (PCO2). The conclusions reveal that positive and adverse impacts of PC on PCO2 exist. The positive effects point out fierce PC may discourage the implementation and credibility of climate policy and bring about substantial uncertainties, thereby raising PCO2, which indicates that factionalism could impede U.S. carbon neutrality. However, this idea cannot be held during the adverse influence, PCO2 moves in the opposite direction to PC primarily caused by the economic crisis. Conversely, there are positive effects from PCO2 to PC, emphasising that new climate policies triggered by high carbon emissions may deteriorate factionalism and vice versa. Against the backdrop that the climate issue has become a political tool for U.S. factionalism, these conclusions offer significative implications for the U.S., which should adopt a correct and scientific attitude toward global warming, as well as develop a coherent and consistent policy response to climate change, in order to achieve carbon neutrality target within commitment time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate policy uncertainty needs to be considered urgently in view of the fact that climate policy is affecting energy and agricultural markets. This paper uses quantile connectedness to examine the dynamic spillover among climate policy uncertainty (CPU), crude oil prices (COP) and agricultural product prices (APP), further revealing the impact of climate policy on markets in both normal and extreme markets. The results show that there is a higher connectedness level at extreme quantile. Uncertain climate policy activities and major events affect system connectedness. Further analysis shows that, compared with the isolated role in the normal market (median quantile), CPUs in the extreme market (lower and upper quantile) become continuous shock receivers in the system. The risk spillover mainly focused on soybeans and corn, and COP increased the risk of spillover especially after the epidemic. By revealing the transmission mechanism of the price correlation between oil and agricultural products under the CPU framework, this can fully explain the linkage between them. In general, the stability of the oil market and agricultural product market is crucial to the formulation of climate policy. These conclusions provide significant enlightenment for policy-makers and investors coping with the high level of CPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency plays a central role in climate change mitigation policies. Countries are using different methods to estimate energy savings from energy efficiency improvements. Improved methods to measure energy efficiency savings are adopted mainly in countries with mandatory energy efficiency targets. They use bottom-up and top-down methods to enhance the reliability of savings estimates. India has implemented various energy efficiency measures, and the impact of most of the schemes is estimated using the simplified deemed savings bottom-up approach. Index Decomposition Analysis is a top-down approach, but its use in India is limited due to a lack of reliable national energy balances. This study uses India's energy balances from International Energy Agency to estimate the energy efficiency savings in India during 2011–19. It is found that the IDA estimates are lower than the government's deemed savings estimates. The underlying assumptions in the simplified deemed savings approach may overestimate savings, or savings from index decomposition analysis may be underestimated due to data limitations. Improved methods and reliable and timely data is essential for measuring energy savings from energy efficiency. National-level targets on energy efficiency can push improvements in energy savings measurement techniques. The targets can also address several barriers in the energy efficiency markets. • Developing countries use simplified approaches to estimate EE savings. • Combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches increase reliability of estimates. • IDA estimates of saving from EE policies in India are lower than government estimates. • Energy intensity targets can improve energy savings measurement techniques in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite two decades of investment in climate change adaptation knowledge, planning and policy, the Australian policy and scientific community is now at an adaptation impasse, with effective, equitable and timely adaptation rare and negative impacts proliferating as a result. Drawing on Australia as an illustrative and globally relevant case study, we describe and diagnose the adaptation impasse using a novel four-part heuristic – Adaptation as Spectre, Signal, Social and Systems – to characterise adaptation knowledge and action and their evolution over time. We examine the relationship between these adaptation types and argue that an underlying political economy at odds with the demands of adapting to climate change is generating the adaptation impasse. We suggest that to overcome the impasse we need to transform adaptation into a science and practice that is imaginative, pluralist, and caring. • The Adaptation scientific and policy community is at an impasse. • This impasse can be explored through a 4-part heuristic: Spectre, Signal, Social, and Systems. • An underlying political economy at odds with the demands of adapting to climate change is the primary cause of this impasse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper collects monthly data for the United States from January 2005 to April 2021 and develops a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) model to investigate the time-varying relationship between climate policy uncertainty, oil prices, and renewable energy consumption. In addition, this paper discusses the dynamic impact of climate policy uncertainty on five types of renewable energy consumption. Our results show that the relationship between them is time-varying. In most periods, climate policy uncertainty positively affects oil prices in the short and medium term, and positively affects total renewable energy consumption in the short and long term. In addition, the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the consumption of the five types of renewable energy is heterogeneous. The results of the robustness tests indicate that our results are robust and our study has important implications for the development of relevant policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the construction of climate change as a security threat under authoritarian political structures. Based on 55 Vietnamese government policies, strategies, laws, and action plans and building on the theoretical framework of authoritarian environmentalism, the article demonstrates that climate change is increasingly being taken seriously by the Vietnamese policymakers and that security framings play a significant role in this debate. Although the authoritarian state in Vietnam appears to be relatively independent of public preferences and is argued to rely primarily on top-down, non-participatory environmental management, it nonetheless strives to construct narratives that support its public legitimacy. Through the use of various frames such as natural resource security, water resource security, food security, and energy security, Vietnamese discourse presumes that climate change policies should bring economic benefits, which in turn provides the basis for the public security agenda and ultimately serves regime security, strengthening the legitimacy and resilience of the Communist Party of Vietnam. These findings indicate that development and security discourses in the area of climate policy actively interact and perpetuate each other, highlighting an important feature of emerging state environmentalism in Vietnam. • Security framings play an important role in the policy discourse on climate change in Vietnam. • Vietnamese policy discourse uses various security frames to construct its public legitimacy. • Vietnamese policy discourse assumes that action on climate change should bring economic benefits. • It remains unclear to what extent the policy reflects the government's genuine environmental concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental catastrophes, including the increased severity and frequency of climate extremes, can act as "windows of opportunities" that challenge citizens' mental models and motivate them to engage in reflective processes, challenging their pre-conceived ideas. Less well understood is whether experiencing changing weather conditions, common in mid-latitudes, can have a similar effect and increase the citizens' concerns about climate change and their willingness to accept more stringent climate policies. In this paper, we investigate the effects of changing seasonal temperature on the perceived seriousness of climate change and willingness to mitigate climate change. We use data from four yearly waves of a spatially explicit representative population survey in Germany and weather records from the postal code areas in which they live. To our knowledge, this study is the first analysis to link individual perceptions towards climate change and different mitigation options with seasonal temperature changes at specific locations in Europe. The analyzed perceptions were strongly influenced by socio-demographic characteristics and broader societal changes, as well as individual experiences of seasonal temperatures. The results show that experienced seasonal temperature change influences personal climate change concerns as well as the willingness to mitigate climate change, although with a weaker effect. The results indicate that it is the absolute temperature variation experienced that is important, rather than whether it is getting colder or warmer than usual. Considering the influences identified in this study can offer a window of opportunity for more stringent and targeted climate change policy. • Seasonal temperature changes influence climate change perception. • Effects can offer a window of opportunity for more stringent climate change policy. • Governmental mitigation policy solutions less supported than self-determined options. • Perceptions influenced by broader societal changes as well as individual experiences. • Need for targeted climate change communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to still be able to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, global net greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced to zero by the middle of the century. One decisive step towards this goal will be phasing out coal. The UK has led the way as one of the first countries to not only phase out coal by 2024, but also set a net zero target for 2050. Based on 22 expert interviews, we analyse which objectives, actors, and contextual factors were relevant for the two decisions, and which continuities emerge in UK climate policy. We find that the coal phase-out was not primarily driven by the decision to phase out coal in 2015, but by policies (e.g., the CO 2 price) and other contextual factors (e.g., the old coal fleet) that were not initially associated with the phase-out. The recommendations by the Committee on Climate Change, a general political mood calling for more climate protection, and the Conservative Party's desire to show climate protection ambitions played an important role in the net zero decision. Continuities driving both decisions can be seen in the relevance of scientific expertise in UK politics, strong social movements, favourable cost arguments, and a political consensus emerging among the relevant political parties. From a climate justice perspective, however, industrialised nations such as the UK should become carbon neutral sooner than 2050, given the historical responsibility for carbon emissions and economic preconditions that countries in the Global South do not have. • The UK was a frontrunner in adopting a coal phase-out for 2024 and a net zero target for 2050. • The political economy context of both decisions is characterised by three main objectives relating to the "energy trilemma." • The decline in coal was initiated by earlier policies (e.g. the CO 2 price) rather than by the coal phase-out decision itself. • The net zero decision was driven by public protests, a cross-party consensus and Theresa May's desire to secure her legacy. • Both processes show the relevance of scientific advice, political consensus, and public protests for UK climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development and deployment of environmental technologies (ETs) is critical to avert further environmental destruction, to significantly reduce emissions and to halt climate change. Innovation in ETs is particularly pertinent in newly industrializing countries (NICs), since they will soon overtake developed countries in terms of aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, but also have the economic strength required to scale up ETs rapidly. Even though NICs now supply a substantial share of low-carbon technologies, multilateral climate change policies continue to focus narrowly on technology transfer rather than collaboration and co-invention. In addition, G7 countries have vocalized their intention to collaborate with developing countries to innovate and diffuse ETs, suggesting that collaboration can be a key driver of developing country innovations. Against this background, we conduct an empirical analysis of ten NICs from 1990 to 2017 and demonstrate that technological collaboration with G7 countries significantly increases ET innovation in NICs. • Innovation in Environmental Technologies (ETs) is critical for meeting the Paris Climate Agreement • Through an empirical analysis we show that collaboration between NICs and G7 countries drives ET innovation in the former • Results suggest that much greater policy focus should be aimed at collaboration rather than technology transfer • Collaboration breeds more NIC's innovation by inducing learning-by-doing, learning-by-innovating and learning-by-exporting [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilience is becoming the dominant discourse in research and policy on climate change as well as wider social-ecological change. Resources and assets alone are often not enough to support resilience, especially in the context of multi-scalar change. Human agency, that is the ability to act and make choices that produce desirable outcomes, is critical to responding and thriving in the face of social-ecological change, however agency remains underexplored in the social-ecological change and resilience literature. We use a local knowledge approach to understand the role of human agency in shaping resilience to complex multi-scalar social-ecological changes. This research draws on focus groups and interviews with ranchers and land managers in seven different focal landscapes across the American West to understand how ranchers articulate social-ecological change in western rangelands, how they describe their own agency in responding to such changes, and how local knowledge of agency and social-ecological change can strengthen conceptions of resilience. Ranchers expressed more agency in addressing observed ecological and climatic changes but less agency in navigating multi-scalar sociological, political and land use changes as these processes unfold at scales far beyond the ranch. Several ranchers also provided examples where scale jumping or increasing community human agency created pathways for resilience to multi-scalar processes. This analysis has two main implications for resilience interventions. First, resilience is a complex negotiation of interconnected and multi-scalar processes and climate resilience cannot be separated from other ongoing economic and social processes. Second, human agency is a critical component of resilience that allows for negotiations of multi-scalar social-ecological changes. • Explores cattle ranchers' local knowledge of social-ecological change and resilience. • Resilience shaped by changes in ecology, economics, community, and rangeland users. • Ranchers voiced more agency with ecological changes over other dimensions. • Resilience involves adaptation to interconnected and multi-scalar processes. • Increasing human agency can open paths for resilience to multi-scalar changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper involves a comparative study of policymaking related to urban transport in the Gothenburg and Oslo regions. It sets out to show how strong climate leadership relates to the integration of policy measures and governance systems. Methodologically, we apply document analysis and qualitative interviews with key informants. Our clearest finding is the importance of the city's contextual governance framework for integrative climate leadership. The strong components of the leadership in Oslo—involving both horizontal and upward coordination—rely on a well-developed governance framework with operationalised goals, strategies and steering tools. This enables them to utilise multiple types of climate leadership. This contrasts with the lower degree of integration and defensiveness in Gothenburg, in terms of willingness to use effective but politically sensitive policy measures. • Integration between governance systems facilitates implementation of climate policy. • Integration at local level may strengthen consistency across tiers of government. • A city's governance framework is central for integrative climate leadership. • Chronological packaging enables adding climate-effective measures to initial scheme. • A distinction can be made between management- and policy-oriented urban packages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term nature of climate policy measures requires stable social legitimacy, which other types of crises may jeopardize. This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 fear on climate change beliefs based on an autumn 2020 population survey in the Member States of the European Union and the United Kingdom. The results show that deep COVID-19 concerns increase climate change concerns, awareness, and perceived negative impacts of climate change. These effects are more robust among the lower educated Europeans. On the country level, strict governmental measures are also linked to deep climate change concerns. In contrast to the experience following the 2008 recession, the findings show that a secondary crisis can positively impact climate attitudes, which is a promising result for policy actions. • Discovers links between COVID-19 concerns and climate change attitudes. • Based on a large-scale survey in the Member States of the EU and the UK. • COVID-19 concerns increase fear of climate change, awareness, and perceived impacts. • No signs of the "finite pool of worry" hypothesis. • The secondary COVID-19 crisis offers a promising ground for climate change policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dynamic connectedness of clean energy, green, and sustainable markets, and determine how climate policy uncertainty affects the level of connectedness in these markets. To this end, we use clean energy and clean technological innovation assets to represent clean energy markets; green bonds and clean cryptocurrency assets to represent green markets; and carbon and sustainability assets to represent sustainable markets. To analyze the connectedness, we apply a novel Quantile Connectedness measure to daily data ranging from January 9th, 2018 to September 11th, 2023. Results reveal a strong interconnectedness of clean energy markets, green markets, and sustainable markets. Results also show that clean energy markets are net transmitters of shocks, green markets are net receivers of shocks, and sustainable markets are both net transmitters and net receivers of shocks. Furthermore, to examine the role of climate policy uncertainty, we employ three different nonlinear methods, namely; the nonparametric causality-in-quantiles, quantile regression, and Kernel-based regularized least squares. Empirical results suggest that climate policy uncertainty has a causal and positive effect on the interconnectedness of clean energy, green, and sustainable markets. These findings are validated by various robustness analyses, and hence, provide vital insights into the risk diversification's goal of investors and portfolio managers. • Dynamic connectedness of clean energy, green, and sustainable markets. • Role of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) in the connectedness of clean energy, green, and sustainable markets • Apply Quantile connectedness, nonparametric causality-in-quantiles, quantile regression, and KRLS methods. • Strong interconnectedness of clean energy, green, and sustainable markets is observed. • CPU has a causal and positive effect on the interconnectedness of clean energy, green, and sustainable markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Methane emissions from rice cultivation in China are estimated at a range of 6.21–6.57 Tg yr−1 over the past two decades. • Reduction in the rate of straw added could significantly lower methane emissions by 9.4 %–10 %. • Policies focusing on production or demand can increase CH 4-rice by 0.3 % to 5.6 %. • Structural adjustments and regional cooperation effectively control CH 4-rice and promote regional development. • Dynamic rice cultivation adjustments could reduce CH 4-rice by 8.9 %–12.0 % by 2060. Regional budget assessments of methane (CH 4) are critical for future climate and environmental management. CH 4 emissions from rice cultivation (CH 4-rice) constitute one of the most significant sources. However, previous studies mainly focus on historical emission estimates and lack consideration of future changes in CH 4-rice under climate change or anthropogenic policy intervention, which hampers our understanding of long-term trends and the implementation of targeted emission reduction efforts. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of CH 4-rice over the past two decades, using an integrated method to identify the major drivers and predict future emissions under climate change scenarios and policy perspectives. Results indicate that the CH 4-rice emissions in China ranged between 6.21 and 6.57 Tg yr−1 over the past two decades, with a spatial distribution characterized by decreases in the south and increases in the north, associated with economic development, dietary shifts, technological advancements, and climate change. Factors such as the rate of straw added (RSA), fertilization, soil texture, temperature, and precipitation significantly influence CH 4 emissions per unit rice production (CH 4-urp), with RSA identified as the most significant tillage management factor, explaining 32 % of the variance. Lowering RSA to 8 % is beneficial for reducing CH 4-urp. Scenario analysis indicates that under policies focusing on production or demand, CH 4-rice is expected to increase by 0.3 % to 5.6 %, while adjusting RSA can reduce CH 4-rice by 9.4 % to 10.0 %. Structural adjustments and regional cooperation serve as beneficial starting points for controlling and reducing CH 4-rice in China, while optimizing industrial layouts contributes to regional development and CH 4-rice control. Implementing policies related to maintaining field and crop yields can achieve a balance between rice supply and demand ahead of schedule. Dynamic adjustment of rice cultivation based on supply–demand balance can effectively reduce CH 4-rice from excess rice production. By 2060, the reduction effect could reach 8.95 %–12.01 %. Introducing policy-driven tillage management measures as reference indicators facilitates the reduction of CH 4-rice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Machine learning reveals spatiotemporal dynamics of SOC stocks in tidal marshes. • Sediment salinity and tidal range are key factors influencing SOC stocks prediction. • Invasive S. alterniflora contributes over half of SOC stocks in Yangtze Estuary. • S. alterniflora increased SOC stocks within the first 15 years of its invasion. • S. alternifloras high SOC storage capacity is not sustained in the long term. Spatial quantification of blue carbon ecosystem stocks is crucial for developing policies to mitigate climate change, especially in regions experiencing ongoing wetland disturbance from biological invasions. We integrated multiple machine learning models with the space-for-time substitution method to quantify the spatiotemporal impact of Spartina alterniflora invasion on tidal marsh sediment blue carbon (soil organic carbon – 'SOC') stocks at 100 cm depth in the Yangtze Estuary. Our results show that the invasive S. alterniflora contributed more than half of the total SOC stocks (2,056 ± 379 Gg C, 1 Gg = 106 kg) in the 27,600 ha tidal marshes of the Yangtze Estuary, which were estimated to be 1,107 ± 176 Gg C. S. alterniflora increased the SOC stocks in the Yangtze Estuary within the first 15 years, but this gain was not sustained in the long term, with a gradual decline (by 13.14 Mg C/ha) observed after 15 years of S. alterniflora growth. We found that sediment salinity, tidal range, and human accessibility were strong indicators for modeling and predicting SOC stocks, with Random Forest providing the best simulation of tidal marsh SOC stocks (R2 = 0.894, RMSE=7.646 Mg C/ha, and MAPE=9.469 %). Our study provides much needed information on blue carbon stocks in the Yangtze Estuary under biological invasion stress, and offers guidance for targeted S. alterniflora management actions in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To motivate public participation in climate change mitigation, both "carrot" policies that create positive incentives for mitigated carbon and "stick" policies that create negative incentives for emitted carbon have been widely applied. Given the joint deployment of these measures, a key question is whether they are compatible with each other. Focusing on the Low-Carbon Reward Scheme (LCRS) and carbon taxes, two prominent proposals on China's climate policy agenda, this study evaluates how one incentive policy affects public support for the other. The results of a large survey experiment with Hangzhou residents indicate a two-way crowding-out effect, wherein introducing the LCRS diminished support for the tax, albeit primarily among LCRS proponents, and introducing the tax reduced support for the LCRS. Aligning with the proposed account, crowding out was driven by a decrease in policy effectiveness and fairness perceptions. These findings reveal a contradictory relationship between carrot and stick policies at the citizen level and illuminate the underlying mechanism. • Both carrot and stick policies are applied to motivate climate mitigation behaviors. • We identify a two-way crowding-out effect between these policies in public opinion. • Introducing a stick (carbon tax) reduces support for a carrot (low-carbon reward). • Introducing a carrot reduces support for a stick among people favoring the carrot. • Crowding out is driven by weakened policy effectiveness and fairness perceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the effects derived from the application of local policies and measures on the update of the circulating vehicle fleet of the city of Madrid in terms of greenhouse gases and urban pollutants emissions. The identification of said effects has been possible thanks to the use of Vehicle Fleet Characterization Studies (VFCS), which have been applied to Madrid for the last 10 years. It explores the evolution of several indicators, such as fleet age or urban emissions, through the analysis of the results obtained in the VFCS performed in 2013, 2017 and 2022. These studies help decisively in the evaluation of traffic emissions, thus being a compelling tool in the elaboration of the urban inventories. They constitute a cornerstone in the assessment of the city environmental issues and the decision-making process to reduce the environmental impact and minimize transport-related problems. The results show that the renovation of the fleet has diminished the emission of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, improving the air quality. However, the emissions of carbon dioxide stay almost unaffected, which suggests that the climate change policies should be oriented towards the decarbonization of the road traffic, mainly by switching to electric vehicles or low-carbon fuels. [Display omitted] • Vehicle fleet characterization as a useful analysis to develop local policies • Analyzing effects of local environmental policies or designing new ones • Emissions reduction: 42 % for NO x , 48 % for PM 2.5 and 8 % for CO 2 (average fleet) • Hybrids and low-emitting fuels have increased its presence in a combined 16 % • Air quality has greatly improved, but the impacts on climate change are still high [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Biden administration has revitalized the United States' climate agenda. Current research on the U.S. climate mitigation policies has predominantly focused on individual policies and legislative measures, demonstrating a lack of a comprehensive and systematic analysis. To address this gap, this study establishes a systematic analytical framework for US climate mitigation policies, including the "Vertical Policy Hierarchy - Horizontal Policy Path - Policy Instruments" dimensions, drawing upon first-hand policy data to thoroughly assess the U.S. climate mitigation policy system, pathways, instruments, and potential policy outcomes. The study finds that, (i) Concerning the vertical policy hierarchies based on the government's governance structure, the U.S. federal government has been proactive in advancing climate mitigation policies. However, the government faces multiple risks arising from various factors, including elections, public opinion, limited authority, frequent economic and social unrest, and the ever-shifting domestic and international political factors. These vulnerabilities may undermine the effectiveness of policies. The Congress also encounters certain challenges of significant fragmentation and influence from diverse economic and political factors, which poses challenges to the enactment of related environmental legislation. Moreover, the Supreme Court's climate litigation rulings tend to exhibit a conservative and highly politicized nature. (ii) In terms of the horizontal policy path, which is categorized into six major focus areas, the U.S. climate mitigation policies have made positive strides in the general sector, buildings sector, transport sector, and agriculture and forestry sector. However, challenges persist in the energy sector and industry and business sector. (iii) An analysis of 706 policy instruments indicates that Financial/Fiscal Mechanisms and Direct Investment are the primary means of implementing U.S. climate mitigation policies. Since President Biden assumed office, Regulatory Reform has emerged as a significant breakthrough, accompanied by the gradual adoption of Commercialization Mechanisms and Governance Mechanisms. However, Market-based Mechanisms have encountered challenges in their implementation at the federal level. (iv) An analysis of the potential effects of policy instruments indicates that institutional requirements are a primary consideration; policy design emphasizes environmental justice and equity. Many policies demonstrate positive outcomes in terms of environmental effectiveness, economic effectiveness, and innovation. Policies are also beneficial in improving people's livelihoods, reducing inflation, increasing employment, while also exhibiting positive synergies and enhancing competitiveness. Combining these results and issues, this paper also discusses prominent trends in the policy and offers recommendations for climate decision-making in the United States and other countries. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]