1. Residential exposure to microbial emissions from livestock farms: Implementation and evaluation of land use regression and random forest spatial models.
- Author
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Cornu Hewitt, Beatrice, Smit, Lidwien A.M., van Kersen, Warner, Wouters, Inge M., Heederik, Dick J.J., Kerckhoffs, Jules, Hoek, Gerard, and de Rooij, Myrna M.T.
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LIVESTOCK farms ,RANDOM forest algorithms ,LAND use ,GEOGRAPHIC information systems ,ESCHERICHIA coli ,EMISSION exposure - Abstract
Adverse health effects have been linked with exposure to livestock farms, likely due to airborne microbial agents. Accurate exposure assessment is crucial in epidemiological studies, however limited studies have modelled bioaerosols. This study used measured concentrations in air of livestock commensals (Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Staphylococcus species (spp.)), and antimicrobial resistance genes (tetW and mecA) at 61 residential sites in a livestock-dense region in the Netherlands. For each microbial agent, land use regression (LUR) and random forest (RF) models were developed using Geographic Information System (GIS)-derived livestock-related characteristics as predictors. The mean and standard deviation of annual average concentrations (gene copies/m
3 ) of E. coli , Staphylococcus spp., tetW and mecA were as follows: 38.9 (±1.98), 2574 (±3.29), 20991 (±2.11), and 15.9 (±2.58). Validated through 10-fold cross-validation (CV), the models moderately explained spatial variation of all microbial agents. The best performing model per agent explained respectively 38.4%, 20.9%, 33.3% and 27.4% of the spatial variation of E. coli , Staphylococcus spp., tetW and mecA. RF models had somewhat better performance than LUR models. Livestock predictors related to poultry and pig farms dominated all models. To conclude, the models developed enable enhanced estimates of airborne livestock-related microbial exposure in future epidemiological studies. Consequently, this will provide valuable insights into the public health implications of exposure to specific microbial agents. [Display omitted] • Improving livestock exposure assessment is crucial for accurately assessing health risks. • Empirical spatial models effectively predict airborne microbial concentrations. • Random Forest models slightly outperform Land Use Regression models. • Variables related to poultry and pig farms are large contributors to the models. • Modelling residential exposure will benefit future epidemiological studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2024
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