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Disparity between watershed erosion rates and downstream sediment delivery has remained an important theme in geomorphology for many decades, with the role of floodplains in sediment storage as a common focus. In the Piedmont Province of the eastern USA, upland deforestation and agricultural land use following European settlement led to accumulation of thick packages of overbank sediment in valley bottoms, commonly referred to as legacy deposits. Previous authors have argued that legacy deposits represent a potentially important source of modern sediment loads following remobilization by lateral migration and progressive channel widening. This paper seeks to quantify (1) rates of sediment remobilization from Baltimore County floodplains by channel migration and bank erosion, (2) proportions of streambank sediment derived from legacy deposits, and (3) potential contribution of net streambank erosion and legacy sediments to downstream sediment yield within the Mid-Atlantic Piedmont. We calculated measurable gross erosion and deposition rates within the fluvial corridor along 40 valley segments from 18 watersheds with drainage areas between 0.18 and 155 km 2 in Baltimore County, Maryland. We compared stream channel and floodplain morphology from lidar-based digital elevation data collected in 2005 with channel positions recorded on 1:2400 scale topographic maps from 1959–1961 in order to quantify 44–46 years of channel change. Sediment bulk density and particle size distributions were characterized from streambank and channel deposit samples and used for volume to mass conversions and for comparison with other sediment sources. Average annual lateral migration rates ranged from 0.04 to 0.19 m/y, which represented an annual migration of 2.5% (0.9–4.4%) channel width across all study segments, suggesting that channel dimensions may be used as reasonable predictors of bank erosion rates. Gross bank erosion rates varied from 43 to 310 Mg/km/y (median = 114) and were positively correlated with drainage area. Measured deposition within channels accounted for an average of 46% (28–75%) of gross erosion, with deposition increasingly important in larger drainages. Legacy sediments accounted for 6–90% of bank erosion at individual study segments, represented about 60% of bank height at most exposures, and accounted for 57% (± 16%) of the measured gross erosion. Extrapolated results indicated that first- and second-order streams accounted for 62% (± 38%) of total streambank erosion from 1005 km 2 of northern Baltimore County. After accounting for estimated redeposition, extrapolated net streambank sediment yields (72 Mg/km 2 /y) constituted 70% of estimated average Piedmont watershed yields (104 Mg/km 2 /y). The results suggest that streambank sediments are a relatively large source of sediment from Piedmont tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper maps the availability of deforested and degraded land in the state of Pará in the eastern Amazon and discusses the feasibility of using this land for the expansion of palm crops for biodiesel production. The ultimate objective is to highlight land that is suitable for palm oil and its availability/distribution, so that the palm oil expansion envisaged by the Brazilian Government’s Sustainable Palm Oil Program can be achieved in a sustainable way. The analysis is developed with the support of geoprocessing techniques that pull data together from different sources, including the Agroecological Zoning (ZAE) developed for palm oil in Brazil and degraded land data. The analysis identifies some of the challenges faced when planning and monitoring the expansion of palm oil in the Amazon, including the need for an operational concept to identify and use degraded land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mexico is considered a country of biological megadiversity because of its exceptional species richness and endemism. However, much of Mexico’s biodiversity is under threat due to a variety of factors, in particular, habitat loss. The Mexican legal standard (Norma Oficial Mexicana; NOM-ECOL-059-2010) uses four criteria to analyze specieś extinction risk at a national scale. However, when prioritizing areas for biodiversity conservation it is also important to incorporate knowledge of the conservation status of species at a more localized scale (regional, state, or municipal levels) for identifying possible risks associated with population declines. This paper focuses on Guerrero, which is the fourth most biologically diverse state in Mexico. The total extent of the conservation areas in Guerrero is low, amounting to 0.09% of its total area. We analyzed data for 582 terrestrial vertebrate species in Guerrero (53 amphibians, 115 reptiles, 334 birds and 80 mammals), modeling their potential distribution using a maximum entropy algorithm, and 114,555 occurrence records, and 23 predictive environmental (19 climatic and four topographical) variables. The portion of the potential distribution for each species including only remnant natural habitat was designated as its predicted distribution. The area of the predicted distribution was used to compute the fraction of natural habitat remaining for each species overlapping within decreed protected areas at the state and national levels, that is, for Guerrero and all of Mexico. Results show significant differences in the fraction of species’ predicted distribution and species’ potential distribution at different scales (state and national) and differences between the vertebrate groups analyzed. Because quantitative conservation targets are typically set for individual species, this exercise enables an analysis of the impact of the habitat lost on each species’ distribution by assessing the fraction of its predicted distribution that coincides with protected areas. We conclude that this must be part of systematic conservation planning to prioritize areas for potential conservation in Guerrero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although protected areas, or “parks”, are among the leading policy tools used to stem tropical deforestation, rigorous evaluations of their effectiveness—that is, evaluations that control for their tendency to be sited in remote areas with relatively little deforestation—have only recently begun to appear. Important open questions concern the link between the stringency of protection and park effectiveness. How do mixed-use parks that allow sustainable extractive activities perform relative to strictly protected parks? And what types of mixed-use management perform best? In addressing these questions, it is particularly important to control for nonrandom siting, since different management regimes tend to be sited in areas with different preexisting characteristics. To date, most rigorous studies of this issue have focused on scores of parks in one or multiple countries, a strategy that in principle could be undermined by unobserved park heterogeneity. This paper uses high-resolution 2001–2006 land cover data derived from satellite images along with statistical techniques that control for nonrandom siting to examine the relative effectiveness of strict and various mixed-use protection strategies in a single large park: the two-million-hectare Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala. Our results comport with the emerging consensus that on the whole, mixed-use protection in this park has been more effective in stemming deforestation than strict protection because of the performance of forest concessions within the multiple-use zone. However, we also find that mixed-use protection has had smaller, more heterogeneous effects than indicated by simple methods that do not control for nonrandom siting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Salvador is one of the most environmentally degraded nations in Latin America, but the declining fishing industry is under-studied compared with deforestation and landuse. This paper examines the reactions to fish stock decline of two generations of fishers in La Union, El Salvador on the Golfo de Fonseca, one of the most important fishing areas in Latin America, using face to face interviews and questionaires. Both older (>35 years) and younger (<36 years) fishers supplemented their income with trading, farming and loans from their relatives in the United States. All older fishers reported larger fish catches five and ten years previously than at present. Previously, fishers caught more fish, but significantly more younger fishers than older fishers reported their fathers caught more fish than they did, indicating an increasing gap in fish catches in recent decades. More younger fishers than older fishers had fathers or male kin who were also fishers, indicating young men were less likely to join fishing without a parent or kin already involved. Minorities of both older and younger fishers engaged in supplementary activities. Environmental degradation disuaded fishers from switching to farming or hunting. The findings are similar to findings elsewhere on the decline of fish resources and generational gaps in environmental knowledge, but differ in that some other studies report fewer opportunities for fishers to access alternative or complementary activities. These findings are relevant to Latin American studies, considering the great value of the Golfo de Fonseca to the livelihoods of Central America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports the methodology and computational strategy for a forest cover disturbance alerting system. Analytical techniques from time series econometrics are applied to imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to detect temporal instability in vegetation indices. The characteristics from each MODIS pixel's spectral history are extracted and compared against historical data on forest cover loss to develop a geographically localized classification rule that can be applied across the humid tropical biome. The final output is a probability of forest disturbance for each 500 m pixel that is updated every 16 days. The primary objective is to provide high-confidence alerts of forest disturbance, while minimizing false positives. We find that the alerts serve this purpose exceedingly well in Pará, Brazil, with high probability alerts garnering a user accuracy of 98 percent over the training period and 93 percent after the training period (2000–2005) when compared against the PRODES deforestation data set, which is used to assess spatial accuracy. Implemented in Clojure and Java on the Hadoop distributed data processing platform, the algorithm is a fast, automated, and open source system for detecting forest disturbance. It is intended to be used in conjunction with higher-resolution imagery and data products that cannot be updated as quickly as MODIS-based data products. By highlighting hotspots of change, the algorithm and associated output can focus high-resolution data acquisition and aid in efforts to enforce local forest conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary International conservation groups pour millions of dollars into developing countries to help preserve resources and set conservation priorities, but critics argue that affected populations are often excluded from the decision-making process. In 2003 many in the international community praised the president of Madagascar for his pledge to more than triple the area under protection. This paper examines how voting patterns in the president’s re-election bid differed in communities affected by these policies. The results suggest less support for the president in regions with new protected areas but that these policies would be unlikely to change the outcome of an election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biogas digesters could help to reduce deforestation in Sub-Saharan Africa by providing a source of energy that would otherwise be provided by woodfuel. However, the link between deforestation and use of woodfuel at global level is weak because fuel is often obtained from fallen wood or from sources felled for construction or land clearance. This paper examines the link between deforestation and use of woodfuel, and evaluates whether biogas digesters are likely to help reduce deforestation in Africa. Woodfuel production and consumption in Africa are increasing over time. Of the deforestation observed in 2010, we estimated that 70(±42)% can be attributed to woodfuel demand. Uncertainties in this figure arise from uncertainty in efficiency of energy use in different designs of wood-burning stoves, and the percentage of energy obtained from woodfuel in rural and urban populations. The contribution of woodfuel demand to deforestation is predicted to increase by 2030 to up to 83(±50)%. This is due to an increasing population requiring more woodfuel and so contributing to a higher proportion of total deforestation. Biogas production has the potential to reduce deforestation due to woodfuel demand by between 6 and 36% in 2010 and between 4 and 26% in 2030. This is equivalent to 10–40% of total deforestation in 2010, and 9–35% of total deforestation in 2030. The highest contribution to biogas production is likely to be from cattle manure, and the uncertainty in the potential of biogas to reduce deforestation is mainly associated with uncertainties in the amount of biogas produced per animal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation is a leading cause of biodiversity loss and an important source of global carbon emissions. This means that there are important synergies between climate policy and conservation policy. The highest rates of deforestation occur in tropical countries, where much of the land at the forest frontier is managed informally by smallholders and where governance systems tend to be weak. These features must be considered when designing policies to reduce emissions from deforestation such as REDD +. Deforestation is often accompanied by fires that release large amounts of carbon dioxide. These emissions are especially high in the case of peatlands which contain thick layers of carbon-rich matter. In this paper we derive marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves using data from a farmer survey in Sumatra, where rates of peatland deforestation are high. Comparing these results with farmers' stated willingness to accept payment not to clear forest to establish oil palm suggests that REDD + policies may be more expensive than MAC estimates suggest The extent to which this is true depends on the types of soils being deforested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing global demand for natural rubber is driving deforestation due to the expansion of rubber plantations, with consequences for biodiversity, carbon storage, and local communities. There has been little attention given to these issues in Sri Lanka, where rubber production is central to economic growth. Although private initiatives and government regulations aim to reduce deforestation associated with these plantations, it is unclear if these measures effectively protect forests or limit associated risks in the supply chains of companies purchasing Sri Lankan rubber. This paper uses the TRACAST methodological framework and remote sensing to track natural rubber supply chains from Sri Lanka to the U.S and to identify hidden deforestation risks resulting from this trade. We estimate 196 km2 of forest were converted into rubber plantations between 2006 and 2016, including protected forests located in an emerging rubber frontier in southeast Sri Lanka. Our analysis identifies rubber traders and multinational tire manufacturers as key actors that hinder the traceability of rubber back to the plantations. This opacity increases the potential for unsustainably produced rubber to enter global supply chains of transnational corporations such as Loadstar (Michelin) and Nike. Most of these corporations have sustainable procurement policies, but the effectiveness of these policies is compromised by the lack of supply chain transparency. Integrating public and private sector management through inclusive multi-stakeholder initiatives and multi-level land use governance can help overcome these hurdles, prevent future deforestation, and assist Sri Lanka in moving towards more sustainable rubber production. • Deforestation in Sri Lanka due to rubber plantations is understudied. • Remote sensing indicates 196 km2 of forest became rubber plantations (2006–2016). • Exports of rubber from Sri Lanka is flowing into global corporate supply chain. • These rubbers flows are a risk for corporate sustainability. • Better public and private governance can curb deforestation from rubber plantations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth in plantation forestry over the past two decades attests to the sector's importance in meeting rising global demand for timber, fuel and fiber. However, plantation forests differ dramatically from natural forests in the types of ecosystem services they can provide. As a result, it is important to understand the aggregate effects of plantation expansion on natural forests. Using a simple partial equilibrium model and a global panel dataset of forest statistics, this paper assesses the impacts of plantation expansion upon the extent of natural forests. The analysis shows that plantation expansion has resulted in a contraction of natural forests dedicated to forest product extraction, but an expansion of un-harvested natural forests and the associated generation of ecosystem services. The model and empirical evidence emphasize, however, that there is significant heterogeneity in this outcome depending upon the own-price elasticity of demand for forest products and, as a result, the trade intensity of the forestry sector. The potential for beneficial effects of plantation expansion on un-harvested natural forests is diminished in countries with trade-oriented forestry sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the dynamic effect that the Tandroy's unsustainable practices have on the forest. The Tandroy people live in Androy, a region located in the southern part of Madagascar. They are mainly an agricultural and cattle herding society whose subsistence relies on the slash-and-burn farming agriculture (hatsake) and the burning of cacti which are given as fodder to the livestock (ororaketa). These activities generate ecological pressure on the surrounding dry forest and socioeconomic risks related to the lack of sustainability of these practices in the long run. In this paper we address the notion of sustainability and confront it with Tandroy's current productive and economic system. By means of the viability theory, we characterize the actions and scenarios that are compatible with a sustainable use of the forest in the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Most studies on the causes of deforestation have sought to link the phenomenon to specific economic, political, or demographic factors, usually through statistical or spatial-statistical modeling. However, generalizations about the link between deforestation and specific variables or classes of variables are of questionable validity. Another approach, one that is receiving growing attention, seeks instead to identify particular contexts or situations, as created by an array of interacting factors, which encourage forms of land use or other economic activity that can generate deforestation pressure. Such an approach was used in this study to explore recent trends and dynamics in the Petén region of northern Guatemala. The research found a number of regional and national scale factors that in combination have led to a process of de-agrarianization and dispossession among smallholders, while large scale, commercial activities in agriculture, ranching and plantation forestry increasingly dominate. Rapid land concentration, in conjunction with limited employment generation through emergent activities, is intensifying pressure on remaining areas of forest. A focus on two distinct areas within Petén reveals how broader-scale trends and features can have differing outcomes at the local level, with contrasting socioeconomic and environmental effects. Finally, the paper explores the implications of recent dynamics in Petén for both policy and theory in relation to deforestation, agrarian change, and regional development. Key factors and questions are highlighted that should be considered when exploring influences on regional socioeconomic and environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rocky desertification, which is relatively less well known than desertification, refers to the processes and human activities that transform a karst area covered by vegetation and soil into a rocky landscape. It has occurred in various countries and regions, including the European Mediterranean and Dinaric Karst regions of the Balkan Peninsula, Southwest China on a large scale, and alarmingly, even in tropical rainforests such as Haiti and Barbados, and has had tremendous negative impacts to the environment and social and economic conditions at local and regional scales. The goal of this paper is to provide a thorough review of the impacts, causes, and restoration measures of rocky desertification based on decades of studies in the southwest karst area of China and reviews of studies in Europe and other parts of the world. The low soil formation rate and high permeability of carbonate rocks create a fragile and vulnerable environment that is susceptible to deforestation and soil erosion. Other natural processes related to hydrology and ecology could exacerbate rocky desertification. However, disturbances from a wide variety of human activities are ultimately responsible for rocky desertification wherever it has occurred. This review shows that reforestation can be successful in Southwest China and even in the Dinaric Karst region when the land, people, water, and other resources are managed cohesively. However, new challenges may arise as more frequent droughts and extreme floods induced by global climate change and variability may slow the recovery process or even expand rocky desertification. This review is intended to bring attention to this challenging issue and provide information needed to advance research and engineering practices to combat rocky desertification and to aid in sustainable development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents the functioning of a gully system catchment in the loess area of the Lublin Upland (eastern Poland) based on investigations of soil and sediment sequences filling the valley floors and correlative sediments on the alluvial fan at the valley outlet. Stages of the catchment's evolution are proposed, from the Meso-Holocene (8400–5100BP) followed by prehistorical and historical stages of human activity to modern times (gully erosion). Varying erosional processes have been identified over a period of about 2800yearsBP: washing and sediment deposition on the alluvial fan at early stages followed by multi branched gully system development. Later on, land use change of deforestation and agriculture led to dissection of gully edges by a system of badlands. This study demonstrates the roll of the human factor as a shifting agent between dominant geomorphic processes in the same catchment area over a long period of time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The wild tiger population in tropical Asia has dropped from about 100,000 to 3500 in the last century, and the need to conserve tiger habitats poses a challenge for the Global Tiger Recovery Program. This paper develops and uses a high-resolution monthly forest clearing database for 74 tiger habitat areas in ten countries to investigate habitat threats for Bengal, Indochinese, Malayan and Sumatran tigers. The econometric model links forest habitat loss and forest clearing to profitability calculations that are affected by market expectations, environmental conditions and evolving patterns of settlement, among others. It uses new spatial panel estimation methods that allow for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. The econometric results emphasize the role of short-run market variables, including the exchange rate, real interest rate and prices of agricultural products in forest clearing, with considerable variation in the estimated timing for response and impact elasticities across countries. The results highlight a critical message for the conservation policy community: Changes in world agricultural-product markets and national financial policies have significant, measurable effects on tropical forest clearing, with variable time lags and degrees of responsiveness across countries. Measuring these effects and pinpointing areas at risk can provide valuable guidance for policymakers, conservation managers, and donor institutions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents the results of multi-proxy research (pollen, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and bulk density) on a 100-cm core collected from a Baltic raised bog in N Poland. The impact of the variability of the climate as well as human disturbance in the last 650 years on the development of the peat bog Kusowskie Bagno is described. Based on the results, the development of the raised bogs to the south of the southern coast of the Baltic Sea during the Little Ice Age occurred differently than in NW Europe. In NW Europe (e.g., Great Britain, Ireland, Denmark and N Germany) during the periods of climate cooling associated with lower solar activity, there was a characteristic wet phase, whereas N Poland was characterised by a dry phase. In the years AD 1450–1500, AD 1640–1720 and AD 1810–1840, which correlate with the periods of lower solar activity (the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima) and the periods of lower temperatures in Europe, the water table in Kusowskie Bagno decreased, and this was followed by changes in the vegetation. The largest drop in the water table occurred in the years AD 1640–1720. The dry phase resulted in the reduction of the population of Archerella flavum and Amphitrema wrightianum, which are organisms that are typical of wet habitats, and the appearance of, e.g., Arcella artocrea and Phryganella acropodia, which are indicators of dry habitats. The humidity decline halted the growth of Sphagnum sec. Cuspidata (Sph. cuspidatum and Sph. balticum) and Sphagnum magellanicum. At the same time, Eriophorum vaginatum, Baeothryon caespitosum and Pinus sylvestris appeared, and a dramatic increase in the bulk density is also observed. Since AD 1720, when the solar activity and the water table increased, the bog regenerated, and the population of Sphagnum fuscum/capillifolium developed. The development of the studied raised bog depended mainly on climate change. The increasing human impact in the area, which started in approximately AD 1320 and lasted for several centuries, was manifested in deforestation and in the increase in the surface area of farmland. However, this result did not have a significant impact on the development of the peat bog. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper assesses proponent activities to address tenure insecurity in light of actions required for effective and equitable implementation of REDD+. Field research was carried out at 19 REDD+ project sites and 71 villages in Brazil, Cameroon, Tanzania, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Results show proponents addressed tenure insecurity by demarcating village and forest boundaries and identifying legal right holders, but were limited in their ability to resolve local tenure challenges that were national in origin and scope. Still needed are national tenure actions, integration of national and local tenure efforts, clarification of international and national REDD+ policies, and conflict resolution mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper analyzes deforestation in areas of overlapping land tenure in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. We use a random coefficients model to test for differences in forest cover across tenure forms over time. Tenure categories are significantly associated with changes in deforestation, even after controlling for multiple factors. Deforestation slows dramatically in the latter time period; and model results link parks with reduced deforestation. The same is true for lands where indigenous territories overlap with forest protection. Our results suggest that Ecuador’s conservation incentive program could refine its targeting by focusing on indigenous areas and communal lands outside of parks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how conservation decisions are affected by environmental degradation. Donations to an environmental NGO and participation in actual conservation activities capture individual preferences for environmental conservation. Environmental degradation is measured both through survey-based data on experiences of deforestation and environmental shocks, and through indices of deforestation constructed with GIS data. The results show that being exposed to environmental degradation is correlated both with higher donations and conservation behavior. The relationship between conservation choices and individual social preferences is also explored. Experimental measures of individual altruism and inequality aversion, and survey measures of trust, time preferences and civic engagement are correlated with donations and real world conservation decisions respectively. These findings show the role of environmental awareness in fostering environmental conservation even in very poor settings. They also highlight the potential of experiments, which closely mirror real world decisions, to generate conclusions generalizable to individual behavior outside the laboratory. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: It is widely recognised that weak governance is a major constraint in planning for sustainable development, especially in the South. Sophisticated models that have been developed for assessing the likely effect of selected policies on land-use, and on sustainable development more generally, increasingly acknowledge this; but they do not include methods for taking this into account, in quantitative terms – which is what is necessary if such models are to be applied in practice. This paper begins by identifying the limitations of standard models in this respect, and then suggests a possible way to respond to the problem. We propose the use of what we call ‘policy-specific governance indicators’, that is, indicators not of general government performance across the board, but rather of the actual performance of particular policies – or, if necessary, suitable proxies derived from similar policies. By reference to a case study from Brazil concerning controls on deforestation, we show how this can be done in practice, and built in to the planning model. And by reference to studies from Indonesia and India we explore how one might address still more challenging cases that may arise. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper seeks to analyze local perspectives in Peruvian Amazon forest communities toward REDD and contrast those perspectives with current global and national REDD narratives. REDD is a global market-based approach to provide financial incentives for local actors to halt deforestation or to improve carbon stocks. To date, the REDD framework has not demonstrated that it is equipped to incorporate the diverse perspectives, potential interactions and uncertainties facing forest communities. We interviewed forest community members in the Amazonian state of Loreto, Peru, using “future scenarios” methods to elicit potential alternative narratives, both with and outside REDD. Indigenous voices reveal ambiguous attitudes toward REDD with regard to livelihoods, benefit distribution and the long-term impacts for communities and forests. They reveal considerable uncertainty about the future and lack of trust in governance regimes. Long-term community priorities were in generating work, providing educational opportunities for their children, and improving the quality of their forest. Conflict—within the community, with local loggers and with the recently established regional conservation area—was a prevalent theme. A REDD design that recognizes communities as active participants in global and national climate management and pays attention to local narratives will more likely generate the multiple benefits of healthy forests, strong communities and, ultimately, global climate change mitigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The idea of establishing a financial mechanism to mitigate emissions from the forest sector in developing countries (REDD+) has received strong support, but the unsatisfactory progress of the post-Kyoto process jeopardizes its fate under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Despite the pending decision on an international regulatory framework for the mechanism, REDD+ projects and policies are already put in practice at all governance levels. In 2010, the interim REDD+ Partnership was established as a supplementary process to make further progress in this regard. With its focus on implementation it formally stands outside of the UNFCCC, but de facto it constitutes an alternative forum for relevant issues dealt with under the convention. The relationship between the convention and the partnership is far from linear and appears at odds with classical concepts of ‘regimes’ in international relations theory. Notable parallels between the two processes and the observation that the partnership influences the negotiations under the convention, and vice versa, illustrate the mutual interactions of different modes of governance. Drawing from theories of global and multilevel governance, this paper takes a perspective of ‘governance in networks’ and uses the REDD+ Partnership as a case to further the understanding of global environmental politics as dynamic phenomena that span various political levels and tie various actors together in partly competitive, partly cooperative ways. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the institutional history of international forest governance, from the emergence of global intergovernmental forestry forums, to non-state market-based certification schemes, to regional illegal logging initiatives, to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation and forest enhancement (REDD+) under the UNFCCC. It observes how the early initiatives were criticised for their failure to achieve coordinated and widespread action on forest conservation due to a lack of economic incentives and conflict over environmental and social priorities. This failure has been proceeded by a narrowing of core focus across each successive institution—from sustainability to legality to units of carbon—thereby transforming forest conservation into an increasingly legible and tradable commodity. Indeed, a wide range of environmental, economic and social actors appear to share the goal of making forest management more globally legible. This narrowing of focus, however, has served to displace rather than resolve a large array of environmental and social conflicts. The issues have been displaced across both space and time, generating a growing plethora of institutions involved in defining REDD+ modalities and “safeguards”, including various UN bodies and programmes, international development banks, private certification schemes and national and subnational governments. Meanwhile there is little evidence of whether, where and how these efforts might affect forest change. In fact, the largest impact of REDD+ may ultimately be the production of information to facilitate exchange among states, investors and other actors rather than achievement of shared global forest goals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Forests and climate change are increasingly dealt with as interconnected policy issues. Both the potential synergies and policy conflicts between forest conservation and restoration and climate change mitigation now receive sustained and high level attention from academic, policy analysis and practitioner communities across the globe. Arguably the most pronounced contemporary policy manifestation of this is the debate on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (or REDD+) by which governments and private investors from developed countries may compensate actors in tropical forest countries for reducing forest loss beneath an agreed baseline. Problems of climate–forest policies implementation and governance, however, can also be found in countries such as Canada, the USA, the UK and Australia. The future of instruments like REDD+ is uncertain with growing critiques on payment and performance-based mechanisms and unresolved issues of governance, government and accountability. This paper, and the special issue it introduces, illustrates that in the REDD+ debate many contentious issues have resurfaced from past debates. These issues include the participation and rights of local communities in forest policy and management; the relationship between internationally agreed payment and performance-based programmes and formal democratic decision-making processes and structures; the complexities of rights to carbon versus tenure rights; and the ways in which – in spite of the high expectations of both developing and developed countries to combat carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation through the REDD+ mechanism – effective climate-focused forestry policies are seldom found in most tropical forest-rich countries. REDD+ is now very much the dominant discourse at the forest–climate interface, and one with a primary focus on measurability to communicate carbon mitigation results across various levels. However, this serves to disperse and displace, rather than resolve, policy-making on non-carbon values. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Latin America has been a pioneer in the implementation of payments for ecosystem services (PES) and numerous schemes are now in place. However, existing reviews of this experience are mostly theoretical and/or qualitative. This paper presents a comprehensive, systematic and up-to-date compilation and review of the literature on Payments for Water Ecosystem Services (PWS) in Latin America, in which 310 PWS transactions within 40 different schemes are analysed. Firstly, we quantitatively describe and discuss their key characteristics. Secondly, we identify information gaps that need to be filled to allow a more accurate analysis. Finally, we contrast PES theory versus the reported evidence. Results are discussed in the form of key messages and a conceptual model to support better design, implementation and monitoring is proposed. Among other things, our meta-study shows that there is a certain mis-match between how PES schemes are presented in theory and how they are actually practiced or reported in the literature. This mis-match concerns issues at the core of the PES principles, namely service-action conditionality, service definition and payment negotiation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] This paper addresses the regional socio-ecological factors behind illegal coca expansion. [•] Expansion of coca crops has produced a process of deforestation affecting humid tropical forest. [•] Between 2001 and 2008 the coca crops were displaced to the Pacific, the Caribbean and northern area of the Andean region. [•] There are no variables that can be considered to be exclusively associated with the coca-growing areas. [•] There is a set of common factors that are characteristic of the coca growing areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We propose a new forest prediction model and use actual deforestation data for optimization and verification. • Use the XGBoost method to reconstruct deforestation intensity data. • Deforestation hotspots in China are mainly concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions. • Our model provides certain reference information for forest disaster prevention and forest management. Forests are important for the global carbon cycle, hydrothermal balance, and climate change. Human activities can exert a significant impact on forest ecosystems, thereby having the potential to alter their physical and chemical properties and thus affecting carbon, water, and heat budgets, and climate change. The historical reconstruction of the disturbance of global forests can help us understand the processes and patterns of human activities and global change. In this paper, we construct a deforestation prediction model using a Spearman correlation coefficient and implement the XGBoost method, using Python 3.6, for the reconstruction of deforestation intensity data from 2000 to 2019. Secondly, the selection of the driver indicators is done by using extreme difference regularization to unify the magnitude, and the potential deforestation area risk index is calculated in the form of equal weights. Finally, the actual deforestation data were used for optimization and validation. The model shows that the deforestation hotspots are mainly concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of China and that there are large differences in deforestation in different provinces. In the future, the fine spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation in China during the historical period can be quantitatively reconstructed, which can provide some reference information for forest disaster prevention and forest management in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The creation of a satellite rapid alert programme (DETER-A) in 2004 was a cornerstone of the Brazilian government's strategy to reduce deforestation. This programme allowed authorities to detect and respond rapidly to periods of deforestation. Due to the fact that the policy instrument was based on multispectral remote radar, weather-related obstacles posed a continuous impediment to the study of deforestation. This paper investigates to what extent cloud cover has reduced the effectiveness of the DETER-A program to detect deforestation. To test this hypothesis, survival model analysis is undertaken on satellite data derived measures of local deforestation. The emphasis is on the state of Maranhão, which is separated into two areas by an arbitrary line of demarcation (Legal Amazon delimitation) where the forest on one side is covered by the satellite monitoring program while the other is not. The results suggest that following the implementation of the satellite monitoring program, there was more deforestation in those years with more cloud persistence in the area covered by the program. Counterfactual simulations indicate that the absence of clouds would have prevented deforestation equivalent to almost 7% of the study region, which is equivalent to 73 million tonnes of CO 2 with a value of US$ 366 million. If the current monitoring system was replaced with the experimental policy instrument DETER-C/DETER INTENSO, cloud cover would be less of an impediment to deforestation detection. • Maranhao in Brazil is divided by an artificial line that separates it in two parts with two different deforestation monitoring policies. • Hence, it provides an ideal setting in which to study the impact of cloud cover on deforestation rates. • When a satellite monitoring programme is in operation, more deforestation occurs during years with greater cloud cover. • Highlights Improved satellite monitoring technologies may have a substantial effect on deforestation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fake controversies have influenced policy making on health and environmental issues for decades, resulting in major implementation setbacks worldwide. As a case study, in this paper we examine fake controversies produced by a small group of active Brazilian researchers that have seriously impacted environmental conservation, particularly in issues related to deforestation and climate change. Based on the literature, we develop a typology of strategies deployed in fake controversies, which include manufacturing uncertainty, misusing scientific credentials, and disregarding scientific literature. Afterwards, we examine the influence of this group of contrarians at the National Congress. We then analyze the fake controversies promoted by these contrarians and argue that, to properly understand them, we need to consider a strategy so far overlooked in the literature: the manufacture of "pseudo-facts", namely, affirmations at odds with the established literature but that strives to appear as scientific facts. Unlike other contexts, in which contrarians have mainly sought to cast doubt on consensual issues by arguing that there are still considerable uncertainties surrounding them, in Brazil pseudo-facts on deforestation have been produced and published outside the peer-reviewed literature. We conclude the study with recommendations on how to oppose fake scientific controversies that threaten environmental conservation in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Preservation of biodiversity and reduction of deforestation are considered as key elements when addressing an increased use of bioenergy in the future. This paper presents different combinations of scenarios for global feedstock supply for the production of bioenergy under specified social and environmental safeguard provisions. The objectives of this study were threefold: a) to present a global perspective using an integrated modeling approach; b) to frame the boundaries for lower scale assessments; and c) to identify potential trade-offs to be considered in future research. The aggregate results, achieved through the application of an integrated global modeling cluster, indicate that under a high global demand for bioenergy by mid-century, biomass will to a large extent be sourced from the conversion of unmanaged forest into managed forest, from new fast-growing short-rotation plantations, intensification, and optimization of land use. Depending on the underlying scenario, zero net deforestation by 2020 could be reached and maintained with only a minor conversion of managed forests into other land cover types. Results further indicate that with rising populations and projected consumption levels, there will not be enough land to simultaneously conserve natural areas completely, halt forest loss, and switch to 100% renewable energy. Especially in the tropical regions of the southern hemisphere, it will be important to achieve a controlled conversion from unmanaged to sustainably managed forest as well as increased protection of areas for ecosystems services such as biodiversity. The study concludes with the recommendation to focus on targeted regional policy design and its implementation based on integrated global assessment modeling. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Does the adoption of agroforestry by small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon promote secondary forest succession on the degraded pastures and crop fields? New results from a small-scale farm agroforestry demonstration project, the Rondônia Agroforestry Pilot Project (RAPP) that began in 1992 are presented in this paper. In 1992, 242 farmers were surveyed by a stratified random sampling protocol, 50 of whom were selected to participate in the RAPP, constituting its experimental group. The remaining 191 farmers served as a control group. Farmers from both groups were re-surveyed in 2002 (after 10 years) and again in 2010 (after 18 years). Annual site visits to the experimental group farms were conducted from 1993 through 2003 to monitor agroforest plot development and management, and changes in pertinent socio-economic and household demographic characteristics such as household capacity, production systems, and social participation. Differences in property size, number of people permanently residing on the property, and social participation were found between the experimental and control group, with the experimental group having larger properties, more residents, and more participation in mutual aid associations. Control group farmers were also more reliant on cattle production (based on 2009 sales) despite having similar amounts of pasture as farmers in the experimental group. Within the experimental group, very few differences were found between farmers based on the type of agroforestry plot: timber, mixed or non-timber. Remote sensing analyses reveal long-term (10 years+) spectral differences in terms of the similarity to primary forest of both the agroforestry plots and the entire properties of the farms in this study. Experimental group farmers with mixed or timber-based agroforestry plots allowed more secondary forest succession to occur in and around their plots than farmers with non-timber plots. Although, on average, farm properties have become less spectrally similar to primary forest since 1992, properties with agroforestry plots tend to have more secondary succession and/or primary forest on their land in 2011. Several example properties are shown to illustrate the tendency of farmers with agroforestry plots to allow more secondary forest succession to occur on their land. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Applied models of policy interventions are increasingly expected to consider households’ responses to these interventions, which makes agent-based modelling popular in applied policy situations. Implementing an adequate level of agent heterogeneity and mapping it into a spatial environment are critical factors of such applied modelling. However, policy applications demand the characterisation and parameterisation of behavioural response functions of heterogeneous agents and the spatial distribution of heterogeneous agents, which are neither highly transparent nor greatly tested steps in implementing agent-based models. This paper describes an agent-based model of fuel price changes for a case study in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, and specifically: (a) the characterisation and parameterisation approach, (b) resulting agent types for approximating behavioural heterogeneity, and (c) emerging spatial poverty and deforestation patterns. The model highlights the spatial dynamics of poverty dynamics, indicating that the direct impact of deforestation on poverty among forest-dwelling communities is to trigger their migration into peri-urban areas. Overall, the model suggests that poverty increases in response to fuel price reductions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Although widely studied, deforestation remains a common research topic. The relationship between economic development and deforestation is still in question. This paper presents a meta-analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) studies for deforestation. Using 69 studies, offering 547 estimations, we shed light on why EKC results differ. We investigate the incidence of choices made by authors (such as econometric strategy, measure of deforestation, geographical area, and presence of control variables) on the probability of finding an EKC. After a phase of work corroborating the EKC, we find a turning point after the year 2001. Building on our results, we conclude that the EKC story will not fade until theoretical alternatives are provided. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Present day lead pollution is an environmental hazard of global proportions. A correct determination of natural lead levels is very important in order to evaluate anthropogenic lead contributions. In this paper, the anthropogenic signature of early metallurgy in Southern Iberia during the Holocene, more specifically during the Late Prehistory, was assessed by mean of a multiproxy approach: comparison of atmospheric lead pollution, fire regimes, deforestation, mass sediment transport, and archeological data. Although the onset of metallurgy in Southern Iberia is a matter of controversy, here we show the oldest lead pollution record from Western Europe in a continuous paleoenvironmental sequence, which suggests clear lead pollution caused by metallurgical activities since ~3900cal BP (Early Bronze Age). This lead pollution was especially important during Late Bronze and Early Iron ages. At the same time, since ~4000cal BP, an increase in fire activity is observed in this area, which is also coupled with deforestation and increased erosion rates. This study also shows that the lead pollution record locally reached near present-day values many times in the past, suggesting intensive use and manipulation of lead during those periods in this area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The effect of forest cover changes on mean streamflow is well understood and worldwide data have shown that increasing forest cover decreases the total volume of flow at the catchment scale. However, due to the different methods used to assess the impact of forest cover at the annual and sub-annual timescale general conclusions can be difficult to draw. In this paper, consistent methods of analysing paired catchment data are used to assess the impact of forest cover change in afforestation and deforestation experiments on annual streamflow and flow duration curves (FDCs). The results indicate that in catchments undergoing a permanent change in forest cover it takes between 8 and 25years for a catchment to reach a new equilibrium. Analysis of FDCs showed that three types of responses could be observed. These are: catchments with changes in the number of zero flow days (response group 1), catchments with proportionally larger changes in low flows compared to high flow (response group 2), and catchment with a uniform changes in all flows (response group 3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation and forest degradation are estimated to account for between 12% and 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions and in the 1990s (largely in the developing world) released about 5.8Gt per year, which was bigger than all forms of transport combined. The idea behind REDD+ is that payments for sequestering carbon can tip the economic balance away from loss of forests and in the process yield climate benefits. Recent analysis has suggested that developing country carbon sequestration can effectively compete with other climate investments as part of a cost effective climate policy. This paper focuses on opportunities and complications associated with bringing community-controlled forests into REDD+. About 25% of developing country forests are community controlled and therefore it is difficult to envision a successful REDD+ without coming to terms with community controlled forests. It is widely agreed that REDD+ offers opportunities to bring value to developing country forests, but there are also concerns driven by worries related to insecure and poorly defined community forest tenure, informed by often long histories of government unwillingness to meaningfully devolve to communities. Further, communities are complicated systems and it is therefore also of concern that REDD+ could destabilize existing well-functioning community forestry systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Given the importance of the agricultural frontier as an engine of deforestation, this paper focuses on how colonists (from the Spanish word for “colonists” that is used to describe migrants to the agricultural frontier), who are important and largely overlooked stakeholders, perceive the new climate mitigation mechanism known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+). We aimed (1) to document colonists’ land use, perceptions, needs, and aspirations and (2) to understand if and how they could be taken into account under REDD+ policies. The study, including multiple data collection techniques (e.g., focus group, interviews, and participatory activities), was conducted in eastern Panama. Three areas that were adjacent to the Province of Darien border were chosen because of their similar forested landscapes and varying accessibility to a main road. Our results suggest that land use preferences, culture, forest scarcity and dependency, inequalities (e.g., land use, amount of forest, and land area), and lack of technical capacities are key elements to be considered when developing a REDD+ strategy with colonist communities. We propose that halting deforestation without both considering local communities’ perceptions and giving effective alternatives could seriously undermine livelihoods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Estimating biomass of terrestrial vegetation is not only a rapidly expanding research area, but also a subject of tremendous interest for reducing carbon emissions associated with deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). The accuracy of biomass estimates, and rate of biomass change, is not only important in the context of carbon markets emerging under REDD, but also for characterizing uncertainty in estimates of carbon cycling and the global carbon budget. There is particular interest in mapping biomass so that carbon stocks and stock changes can be monitored consistently across a range of scales – from relatively small projects (tens of hectares) to national or continental scales – but also so that other benefits of forest conservation can be factored into decision making (e.g. biodiversity and habitat corridors). We conducted an analysis of reported biomass accuracy estimates from more than 70 refereed articles using different remote sensing platforms (airborne and spaceborne) and sensor types (optical, radar, and lidar), with a particular focus on lidar since those papers reported the lowest errors when used in a synergistic manner with other coincident multi-sensor measurements. We show systematic differences in accuracy between different types of lidar systems flown on different platforms but, perhaps more importantly, differences between forest types (biomes) and plot sizes used for field calibration and assessment. We discuss these findings in relation to monitoring, reporting and verification under REDD, and also in the context of more systematic assessment of factors that influence accuracy and error estimation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper aims to explore the relationship between the economic growth and the pressure on nature from the environmental sustainability perspective. The pressure on nature is measured by the natural disinvestment component of the Adjusted Net Savings data of the World Bank; which is the sum of energy, mineral, net forest depletions and carbon dioxide damage, all measured in US dollars. Our panel consists of 213 countries and spans the period between 1970 and 2008. We employ a panel Fixed-Effects Instrumental Variable (IV) methodology. Regression analysis reveals that there is a positive relationship between income and pressure on nature, yet the effect is much stronger in middle-income than in low and high-income countries, and also differs across subcomponents. While increase in income decreases the pressure on forests, CO2 damage and mineral extraction increase. We found that increasing trade, all else equal, increases the pressure on nature, hence our findings support Race-to-the-bottom hypothesis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper uses a large panel database to investigate the determinants of forest clearing in Indonesian kabupatens since 2005. Our study incorporates short-run changes in prices and demands for palm oil and wood products, as well as the exchange rate, the real interest rate, land-use zoning, forest protection, the estimated opportunity cost of forested land, the quality of local governance, the poverty rate, population density, the availability of communications infrastructure, transport cost, local rainfall and terrain slope. The econometric results highlight the role of dynamic economic factors in forest clearing: significant roles for lagged changes in all the short-run economic variables—product prices, demands, the exchange rate and the real interest rate—as well as communications infrastructure, some types of commercial zoning, rainfall and terrain slope. We find no significance for the other variables, although our measure of protected-area status is too general for strong conclusions to be drawn about the empirical relationship between forest clearing and protection. It is also possible that the insignificance of transport cost in our results is due to collinearity with our proxy for communications cost, and/or the offsetting effects of transport cost on the direct profitability of forest clearing (negative) and the effectiveness of local forest regulation (positive). Our results strongly support a model of forest clearing as an investment that is highly sensitive to expectations about future forest product prices and demands, as well as changes in the cost of capital (indexed by the real interest rate), the relative cost of local inputs (indexed by the exchange rate), and the cost of land clearing (indexed by local precipitation). By implication, the opportunity cost of forested land fluctuates widely with changes in international markets and decisions by Indonesia''s financial authorities about the exchange and interest rates. Our results suggest that forest conservation programs are unlikely to succeed if they ignore such powerful forces. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has moved to the central stage of the climate change debate by being promoted as a significant, cheap, and quick win–win strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigate climate change. In order to be successful in reducing emissions while providing the projected social and environmental co-benefits, REDD+ needs to overcome key challenges of insecure forest tenure and inequity in the distribution of benefits. Such challenges threaten to affect the livelihoods and well-being in the local communities and in turn the effectiveness of REDD+. While REDD+ programs will affect the participating communities, there is limited knowledge as to what social impacts these projects may bring to the local population. Similarly, assessment of these social dimensions has received little attention until recently, and is consequently out of sync with the realities of REDD+ projects. The present paper aims to shed light on the methodological and contextual challenges in the assessment of the social dimensions of REDD+. Some of the main social concerns of REDD+ are outlined with an emphasis on the uniqueness and complexity of REDD+ interventions. Recently proposed approaches to assess social impacts in REDD+ are critically assessed in terms of the diversity of frameworks proposed, choice of social indicators, and data collection requirements. Specifically, these methodological implications are further discussed in the light of the social dimensions and the prescribed regulations of REDD+ in a Cambodian context. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Amazon continues to lose its natural vegetation, and Brazil, in particular, has a distinct agricultural frontier. We highlight the role of surveillance in reducing deforestation rates in the region. This paper lists the characteristics of the current agrarian structure and the surveillance information from Brazilian Institute of Environment and Natural Resources (IBAMA) with the current deforestation standards in the Amazonian municipalities. In addition, we investigate the relationship between the new areas of deforestation and the low level of agrarian technology in those areas. To do this, we used public deforestation data from the second half of the last decade (2005–2009). We also used agricultural census data to create an index of level of agrarian technology. Based on level of agrarian technology index it was possible to conclude that areas where agriculture and livestock have low level of agrarian technology coincide with the areas of highest deforestation in the Amazon. We found that agrarian structure guided the Amazonian deforestation at the end of this decade, as in previous decades. The maintenance of Agrarian structure in the region over the past 10 years makes us hypothesize that factors such as surveillance may determine decreases in deforestation rates. We showed that embargoed areas due to illegal deforestation occur in the critical areas of deforestation in Amazon, although do not get a clear any decrease in those deforestation rates caused by it. Possibly due to the time lag between recent changes in IBAMA surveillance approach and the society perception of the costs associated to illegal deforestation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There is an ongoing debate on the effect different property regimes have on the use of natural resources and land conversion (i.e., deforestation or reforestation). Much of the discussion has been centered on the two main forms of tenure regime: common-pool system and private property. Case studies around the world have provided evidence on whether one is more effective at preventing deforestation than the other, but there is not a clear pattern. Part of the problem is that evidence comes from theoretical models or isolated case studies instead of comparative studies across large areas. This paper helps to fill this gap by analyzing the association between land cover change (2001–2010) and land tenure regimes including private and two types of common-pool systems (communal and ejido) in Mexico at the municipality level. The analyses were conducted for each of the four major biomes (i.e., moist forest, dry forest, coniferous forest, and desert) to control for differences in environmental factors. Municipalities dominated by communal land tenure had the largest increase in woody cover (classified as >80% cover) in the moist forest, dry forest, and coniferous forest biomes, and municipalities classified as private also had an increase in woody cover, particularly in the desert biome. In contrast, municipalities classified as ejidos (common-pool tenure system resulting from the land reform) lost woody cover mostly in moist forest and desert biomes, but gained woody cover in dry forest and coniferous forest biomes. In modeling analyses, environmental variables were the most important variables associated with woody cover change for private and most communal municipalities, while socioeconomic variables were the most important in ejido regimes. These results highlight the importance of land tenure on land cover change, and show that differences in woody cover change between types of common-pool systems can be larger than their differences with private land tenure. During the last 10years, virtually all deforestation has occurred in areas dominated by ejidos; in contrast, communal and private regimes seem to ameliorate the deforestation process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper studies the dynamics of land-use in the Brazilian Amazon using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. A fixed effect panel data specification is used to control for the heterogeneity in the data. Meanwhile, spatial autocorrelation is also diagnosed by a statistical methodology that allows us to split the model in subsamples (clusters) of more homogenous municipalities. The clustering analysis shows that there are three clusters whose land-use patterns are strongly different in an economical point of view. The first cluster identifies municipalities dedicated to logging, natural resources exploitation and slash-and-burn cultures; the second cluster shows a more diversified agriculture; while the third cluster presents very developed intensive agriculture municipalities. Another contribution of this article relies on the assessment of contemporaneous causal relation among distinct land-uses areas. This new approach allows us to evaluate the dynamics relations arisen from unexpected innovations in the process of soil occupation. The impulse response functions (IRF) and the forecast error variance decompositions (FEVD) generate the following results: (1) in the opposition direction of previous studies, we find that the demand for cropping does not require to clear new areas of forest.; (2) contrary to previous studies we do not find indication that cattle ranching is the primary driver of deforestation; (3) the impact of a shock of pasture land on itself is virtually null at the initial stages, but increases over time, not requiring to clear extra areas of forest land but rather competing with crop land; (4) it seems that if not for all the Amazon Basin, at least in one cluster, cattle ranching and cropping could be competitive activities; and (5) we find out that in the long run pasture innovation is responsible for the major percent of the forecast error concern all land uses. It probably means that the destiny of distinct categories of land, in cluster one, is endogenously determine by activities connected to cattle. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Rapid land use/-cover change has increasingly transformed the hydrological functioning of tropical Andean ecosystems. The hydrological response to forest cover change strongly depends on the initial state of the ecosystem. Relatively little is known about human-disturbed ecosystems where forest plantations have been established on highly degraded land. In this paper, we analyze the impact of forest change on water and sediment fluxes for a highly degraded Andean catchment. Different pathways of land cover change (1963–2007) are observed in the Jadan catchment, with deforestation taking place in remote uplands and recovery and reforestation in the middle and lower parts where agricultural and bare lands are prevalent. Time series analyses of streamflow and rainfall data (1979/1982–2005/2007) show significant shifts in the distribution of rainfall and flow data. Changes in discharge are not resulting from changes in precipitation, as the direction of change is opposite. The removal of native forest for rangeland or croplands (by −20km2) is likely to have contributed to the increase in total annual water yield, through an increase in annual baseflow by 25mm. The observed changes in peakflow are important as the 1st percentile highest flow rates were 54% lower, while the 1st percentile rainfall amounts increased by 52%. The observed decrease in peakflow cannot be explained by clearcut of native forest, but is likely to be related to reforestation of degraded lands as well as spontaneous recovery of vegetation on remaining grazing lands. Over the same time period, a major decrease in specific sediment yields and suspended sediment loads was observed. Although deforestation in the upper parts led to increased landslide activity, this change is not reflected in an increased sediment yield. Small upland rivers are often nearly completely blocked by landslide material, thereby reducing their potential to transport sediment. In contrast, the reduction in estimated erosion is likely to be caused by the reduction of the degraded areas in areal extent as well as to the (partial) recovery of the vegetation in these areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This work synthesizes results from the application of land cover classification techniques and probability sampling of satellite imagery for estimating forest extent and deforestation in Lake Maracaibo Basin (Venezuela and Colombia). A forest map was produced using a semi-automated supervised classification routine on MODIS 8-day 500-m imagery acquired in January 2010. Results show that forests occupy 29,710 km2 which represents 38% of the basin''s total terrestrial landmass. From this extent, 61% belongs to Venezuela and 39% falls within the Colombian region. Findings indicate a drastic decrease in forest cover as a result of anthropogenic agricultural and urban expansion, especially when compared to its potential extent within the ‘Maracaibo dry forests’ and the ‘Venezuelan Andean montane forests’ ecoregions. Using time series of Landsat imagery, deforestation rates for the 1985–2010 time period were calculated. The analysis was performed on 24 samples blocks of 10 × 10 km2 randomly allocated within previously defined change probability strata. The general spatial distribution of deforestation rates was predicted by a simple regression model between sample blocks and prior change probabilities at the basin scale. Our results indicate that deforestation was low (<0.5%/y) in 85% of the basin, with highly focalized deforestation fronts (intermediate-to-high rates, <2.5%/y) in three regions: a) the Motatán river sub-basin in the Eastern Cordillera, b) the lower slopes of the Catatumbo river sub-basin and c) the submontane regions of the Apón and Santa Ana river sub-basins. The results of this paper lead the way for understanding current patterns in socioeconomic drivers of forest clearing in Lake Maracaibo Basin. The study also demonstrates the feasibility of using alternatives methods to the time-consuming and financially unsustainable methods traditionally used at national and sub-national scale in Venezuela and other Latin American countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Indonesia has one of the highest rates of deforestation in the world, with a significant impact on the planetary carbon balance and loss of biodiversity. It also covers a vast and often inaccessible area frequently obscured by clouds, making accurate, timely monitoring of its forests difficult. Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images are unhindered by clouds and can provide clear images whenever there is a satellite pass, hence provide a potentially important tool for monitoring forest changes. Over Sumatra, the JAXA Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) PALSAR L-band radar provided both ScanSAR HH polarisation with repeat images every 46days, thus providing much more frequent clear imagery than other available rapid deforestation monitoring tools, and approximately annual Fine-Beam Dual (FBD) image pairs with HH and HV polarisations. Temporal analysis of ScanSAR images shows that deforestation in the Sumatran province of Riau can be identified by large values of the temporal standard deviation, but high detection rates are associated with high false alarm rates, particularly in swamp forest. There does not appear to be a reliable signature of the onset of forest disturbance in the ScanSAR time-series. Deforestation can also be detected in annual FBD data by combining increases and decreases in both the HH and HV channels, since the four types of change are complementary; these different polarisation responses indicate a variety of physical processes that may be involved in the radar signature of deforestation. Significant improvements in performance are possible by combining FBD and ScanSAR data, giving 72% detection of deforestation for a false alarm rate (detection of deforestation in undisturbed forest) of 20%. Error analysis based on (a) likely errors in the Landsat data used to provide a reference for deforestation and (b) differences between the times of acquisition of the Landsat data and the FBD data suggest that the true detection rate for the FBD data is underestimated. All the analysis in the paper uses fully automatic methods, but it is likely that false alarms in the ScanSAR data due to periodic flooding could be reduced by human inspection. The performance figures reported here could also be improved if knowledge about the locations of dry and swamp forest was included in the methodology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes new clay mineralogical data from southern Lebanon to better understand the origin and dispersal of local and regional fluvial sediments during the Holocene. Data from the Litani watershed, Tyre’s coastline and the city’s ancient northern harbour are compared and contrasted with the results of research undertaken along the Nile and Israeli seaboards. At Tyre, both regional inputs (Litani River, erosion of Eocene and Cretaceous outcrops in the vicinity and reworking of brown/black soils on the Tyrian seaboard) and local sources (erosion of adobe infrastructures, cultural inputs) have been significant components in the infilling of Tyre’s ancient harbour. The high level of variability observed in the up-core clay signatures may reflect Romano-Byzantine deforestation and the use of Cretaceous and Eocene outcrops in local construction. This led to a clear change in the volume and mineralogy of sediment transported into the basin. Off southern Lebanon, the Nile is not a significant contributor to deposition on the inner shelf. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to ≈200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle industry has been suggested as one way to reduce pressure on forest margins and spare land for soybean or sugarcane production, and is the cornerstone of Brazil''s plan for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, federal credit programs and research and development activities in Brazil are aligning to support intensification goals, but there is no guarantee that this push for intensification will decrease the demand for land at the forest margin and as result curb CO2 emissions from deforestation. In this paper we use a spatially explicit rent model which incorporates the local effects of biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, land prices, and distance to markets and slaughterhouses to calculate 30-year Net Present Values (NPVs) of extensive cattle ranching across the Brazilian Amazon. We use the model to ask where extensive ranching is profitable and how land acquisition affects profitability. We estimate that between 17% and 80% of land in the Amazon would have moderate to high NPVs when ranched extensively if it were settled, i.e. if the rancher does not buy the land but acquires it through land grabbing. In addition, we estimate that between 9% and 13% of land in the Amazon is vulnerable to speculation (i.e. areas with positive NPVs only if land is settled and not purchased), which suggests that land speculation is an important driver of extensive ranching profitability, and may continue to be in the future. These results suggest that pro-intensification policies such as credit provision for improved pasture management and investment in more intensive production systems must be accompanied by implementation and enforcement of policies that alter the incentives to clear forest for pasture, discourage land speculation, and increase accountability for land management practices if intensification of the cattle sector is to deter new deforestation and displace production from low-yield, extensive cattle production systems in frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]