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BackgroundIn 2012, the WHO issued a policy recommendation for the use of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to children 3–59 months in areas of highly seasonal malaria transmission. Clinical trials have found SMC to prevent around 75% of clinical malaria. Impact under routine programmatic conditions has been assessed during research studies but there is a need to identify sustainable methods to monitor impact using routinely collected data.MethodsData from Demographic Health Surveys were merged with rainfall, geographical and programme data in Burkina Faso (2010, 2014, 2017) and Nigeria (2010, 2015, 2018) to assess impact of SMC. We conducted mixed-effects logistic regression to predict presence of malaria infection in children aged 6–59 months (rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and microscopy, separately).ResultsWe found strong evidence that SMC administration decreases odds of malaria measured by RDT during SMC programmes, after controlling for seasonal factors, age, sex, net use and other variables (Burkina Faso OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.37, pConclusionsImpact of SMC can be detected in reduced prevalence of malaria from data collected through household surveys if conducted during SMC administration or within 2 months afterwards. Such evidence could contribute to broader evaluation of impact of SMC programmes.

ispartof: BMJ GLOBAL HEALTH vol:7 issue:4 ispartof: location:England status: published

IntroductionChildhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality.MethodsProspective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children ResultsAll-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3–11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); pConclusionsChildren with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer.

BackgroundGlobal adoption of standardised packaging requirements for tobacco products is a victory for public health, but their proliferation and impacts rely partly on public support. How this is related to legislation remains underassessed. This study explored change over time in public support for standardised packaging in countries with varying degrees of legislative provisions.MethodsWe used data from 27 European countries, collected from 2017 (n=28, 300) and 2020 (n=27, 901) waves of the Eurobarometer survey, to assess self-reported support for standardised packaging regulations among both smokers and non-smokers. Countries were grouped into three categories of policy adoption (policy implemented; policy legislated; no legislation) and changes in support were assessed using multilevel Poisson regression models.ResultsIn 2020, public support for standardised packaging was 71% (95% CI 68% to 74%) in countries that implemented standardised packaging legislation, 57% (55% to 60%) in countries that had legislated but not yet implemented legislation and 41% (40%to 42%) in countries with no legislation. Compared with 2017, this represented a relative change of +8% (1% to 15%), +12% (5% to 21%) and −5% (95% CI −2% to −8%), respectively, in the three country categories. Among smokers, there was no indication of change in support across the three groups. Among non-smokers, support increased in countries with existing legislation (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]=1.14, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.23) and decreased in countries with no legislation (aPR=0.93, 0.90 to 0.97).ConclusionsPublic support for standardised packaging regulations increased in countries implementing and legislating for these measures, particularly among non-smokers. An overall increase in support provides reassurance for policymakers defending policy action on tobacco packaging, as well as for those seeking to implement standardised packaging in their own countries.

IntroductionThe current study determined the level and trends associated with the incidence, death and disability rates for bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI; a composite measure of sociodemographic factors).MethodsVarious data sources from different countries, including vital registration and cancer registries were used to generate estimates. Mortality data and incidence data transformed to mortality estimates using the mortality to incidence ratio (MIR) were used in a cause of death ensemble model to estimate mortality. Mortality estimates were divided by the MIR to produce incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated using incidence and MIR-based survival estimates. Age-specific mortality and standardised life expectancy were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). Prevalence was multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs), while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of the YLLs and YLDs. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population.ResultsGlobally, there were 524 000 bladder cancer incident cases (95% uncertainty interval 476 000 to 569 000) and 229 000 bladder cancer deaths (211 000 to 243 000) in 2019. Age-standardised death rate decreased by 15.7% (8.6 to 21.0), during the period 1990–2019. Bladder cancer accounted for 4.39 million (4.09 to 4.70) DALYs in 2019, and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased significantly by 18.6% (11.2 to 24.3) during the period 1990–2019. In 2019, Monaco had the highest age-standardised incidence rate (31.9 cases (23.3 to 56.9) per 100 000), while Lebanon had the highest age-standardised death rate (10.4 (8.1 to 13.7)). Cabo Verde had the highest increase in age-standardised incidence (284.2% (214.1 to 362.8)) and death rates (190.3% (139.3 to 251.1)) between 1990 and 2019. In 2019, the global age-standardised incidence and death rates were higher among males than females, across all age groups and peaked in the 95+ age group. Globally, 36.8% (28.5 to 44.0) of bladder cancer DALYs were attributable to smoking, more so in males than females (43.7% (34.0 to 51.8) vs 15.2% (10.9 to 19.4)). In addition, 9.1% (1.9 to 19.6) of the DALYs were attributable to elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (males 9.3% (1.6 to 20.9); females 8.4% (1.6 to 19.1)).ConclusionsThere was considerable variation in the burden of bladder cancer between countries during the period 1990–2019. Although there was a clear global decrease in the age-standardised death, and DALY rates, some countries experienced an increase in these rates. National policy makers should learn from these differences, and allocate resources for preventative measures, based on their country-specific estimates. In addition, smoking and elevated FPG play an important role in the burden of bladder cancer and need to be addressed with prevention programmes.

The lack of access to safe and effective antimicrobials for human populations is a threat to global health security and a contributor to the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The increasingly common shortages of antimicrobials are an additional threat to the emergence of AMR. While the threat of such drug shortages is most acutely experienced in low-income and middle-income settings, their consequences impact the quality and effectiveness of antimicrobials worldwide. Furthermore, there is a need for robustly conducted studies examining the impact of these increasingly prevalent shortages on patient outcomes and on the emergence and spread of AMR. In this review, we have mapped common drivers for antimicrobial shortages and propose strategies for rethinking the regulation, supply and pricing of antimicrobials to secure their sustainable access across diverse healthcare systems and to help minimise the unintended consequences of weak and ineffective supply chains. Greater government involvement in antimicrobial manufacture and supply is essential to ensure no one is left behind. Dedicated demand systems need to be developed for antimicrobials which take into consideration evolving AMR patterns, burden of diseases, pandemic events and supply and demand issues and facilitate implementation of strategies to address them. Interventions, ranging from advocacy and forecasting to public–private collaborations, new economic models and international consortia working across countries and supply chains, will help assure access to safe and effective antimicrobials to all populations around the globe and ensure that shortages no longer contribute to AMR.

ObjectiveTo quantify occupational risks of COVID-19 among healthcare staff during the first wave (9 March 2020–31 July 2020) of the pandemic in England.MethodsWe used pseudonymised data on 902 813 individuals employed by 191 National Health Service trusts to explore demographic and occupational risk factors for sickness absence ascribed to COVID-19 (n=92 880). We estimated ORs by multivariable logistic regression.ResultsWith adjustment for employing trust, demographic characteristics and previous frequency of sickness absence, risk relative to administrative/clerical occupations was highest in ‘additional clinical services’ (care assistants and other occupations directly supporting those in clinical roles) (OR 2.31 (2.25 to 2.37)), registered nursing and midwifery professionals (OR 2.28 (2.23 to 2.34)) and allied health professionals (OR 1.94 (1.88 to 2.01)) and intermediate in doctors and dentists (OR 1.55 (1.50 to 1.61)). Differences in risk were higher after the employing trust had started to care for documented patients with COVID-19, and were reduced, but not eliminated, following additional adjustment for exposure to infected patients or materials, assessed by a job-exposure matrix. For prolonged COVID-19 sickness absence (episodes lasting >14 days), the variation in risk by staff group was somewhat greater.ConclusionsAfter allowance for possible bias and confounding by non-occupational exposures, we estimated that relative risks for COVID-19 among most patient-facing occupations were between 1.5 and 2.5. The highest risks were in those working in additional clinical services, nursing and midwifery and in allied health professions. Better protective measures for these staff groups should be a priority. COVID-19 may meet criteria for compensation as an occupational disease in some healthcare occupations.Trial registration numberISRCTN36352994.

IntroductionInadequate care during early childhood can lead to long-term deficits in skills. Parenting programmes that encourage investment in young children are a promising tool for improving early development outcomes and long-term opportunities in low-income and middle-income regions, such as rural China.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis to investigate the prevalence of early developmental delays and stimulating parenting practices as well as the effect of parental training programmes on child development outcomes in rural China. We obtained data in English from EconPapers, PubMed, PsycARTICLES, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and Scopus (Elsevier) and in Chinese from China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data and VIP Information. We conducted frequentist meta-analyses of aggregate data and estimated random-effects meta-regressions. Certainty of evidence was rated according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.ResultsWe identified 19 observational studies on the prevalence of developmental delays and stimulating parenting practices for children under 5 years of age (n=19 762) and ten studies on the impact of parental training programmes on early child development (n=13 766). Children’s risk of cognitive, language and social-emotional delays in the rural study sites (covering 14 provinces mostly in Central and Western China) was 45%, 46%, and 36%, respectively. Parental training programmes had a positive impact on child cognition, language and social-emotional development.ConclusionThere is evidence to suggest that early developmental delay and the absence of stimulating parenting practices (ie, reading, storytelling and singing with children) may be prevalent across rural, low-income and middle-income regions in Central and Western China. Results support the effectiveness of parental training programmes to improve early development by encouraging parental engagement.Trial registration numberThis study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020218852).

Background A maternal postpartum six-week check (SWC) with a General Practitioner (GP) is now considered an essential service in England, a recent policy change intended to improve women’s health. We aimed to provide an up-to-date snapshot of the prevalence of SWC prior to the policy change as a baseline, and to explore factors associated with having a late or no check. Methods We conducted a cohort study using primary care records in England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)). 34,337 women who gave birth between 1st July 2015 and 30th June 2018 and had ≥12 weeks of follow-up postpartum, were identified in the CPRD Pregnancy Register. The proportion who had evidence of a SWC with a GP was calculated, and regression analysis was used to assess the association between women’s characteristics and risks of a late or no check. Results Sixty-two percent (95%CI: 58%-67%) of women had a SWC recorded at their GP practice within 12 weeks postpartum, another 27% had other consultations. Forty percent had a SWC at the recommended 6-8 weeks, 2% earlier and 20% later. A late or no check was more common among younger women, mothers of preterm babies, or those registered in more deprived areas. Conclusions Nearly 40% of women did not have a postpartum SWC recorded. Provision or uptake was not equitable; younger women and those in more deprived areas were less likely to have a record of such check, suggesting postpartum care in general practice may be missing some women who need it most.

ObjectiveTo assess the association of lung function and respiratory symptoms with farming, particularly pesticide use, in an agricultural province in Thailand.MethodsWe undertook a cross-sectional survey of adults aged 40–65 in Nan province, Thailand, between May and August 2019. We randomly recruited 345 villagers and enriched the sample with 82 government employees. All participants performed post-bronchodilator spirometry and completed a questionnaire covering information on respiratory symptoms, farming activities, pesticide use and known risk factors for respiratory disease. Associations of respiratory outcomes with farming and pesticide exposures were examined by multivariable regression analysis.ResultsThe response rate was 94%. The prevalence of chronic airflow obstruction among villagers was 5.5%. Villagers had, on average, a lower percent predicted post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) than government employees (98.3% vs 100.3%; p=0.04). There was no evidence of association of lung function with farming activities, the use of specific herbicides (glyphosate and paraquat), insecticides (organophosphates and pyrethroids) or fungicides. The exceptions were poultry farming, associated with chronic cough and an increase of FEV1/FVC, and atrazine, for which duration (p-trend 1/FVC in an exposure–response manner. Cumulative hours (−280 mL/hour), low duration (−270 mL/year) and intensity (−270 mL/hour/year) of atrazine use were associated with lower FVC.ConclusionsChronic airflow obstruction is uncommon among villagers of an agricultural province in Nan, Thailand. Farming and pesticide use are unlikely to be major causes of respiratory problems there.

IntroductionCOVID-19 has shown an exceptionally high spread rate across and within countries worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of such an infectious disease transmission is critical for devising strategies to control its spread. In particular, Rwanda was one of the African countries that started COVID-19 preparedness early in January 2020, and a total lockdown was imposed when the country had only 18 COVID-19 confirmed cases known. Using intensive contact tracing, several infections were identified, with the majority of them being returning travellers and their close contacts. We used the contact tracing data in Rwanda for understanding the geographic patterns of COVID-19 to inform targeted interventions.MethodsWe estimated the attack rates and identified risk factors associated to COVID-19 spread. We used Bayesian disease mapping models to assess the spatial pattern of COVID-19 and to identify areas characterised by unusually high or low relative risk. In addition, we used multiple variable conditional logistic regression to assess the impact of the risk factors.ResultsThe results showed that COVID-19 cases in Rwanda are localised mainly in the central regions and in the southwest of Rwanda and that some clusters occurred in the northeast of Rwanda. Relationship to the index case, being male and coworkers are the important risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in Rwanda.ConclusionThe analysis of contact tracing data using spatial modelling allowed us to identify high-risk areas at subnational level in Rwanda. Estimating risk factors for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is vital in identifying the clusters in low spread of SARS-CoV-2 subnational level. It is imperative to understand the interactions between the index case and contacts to identify superspreaders, risk factors and high-risk places. The findings recommend that self-isolation at home in Rwanda should be reviewed to limit secondary cases from the same households and spatiotemporal analysis should be introduced in routine monitoring of COVID-19 in Rwanda for policy making decision on real time.

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-income and middle-income countries. Several NTDs, namely lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) and trachoma, are predominantly controlled by preventive chemotherapy (or mass drug administration), following recommendations set by the WHO. Over one billion people are now treated for NTDs with this strategy per year. However, further investment and increased domestic healthcare spending are urgently needed to continue these programmes. Consequently, it is vital that the cost-effectiveness of preventive chemotherapy is understood. We analyse the current estimates on the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of the preventive chemotherapy strategies predominantly used for these diseases and identify key evidence gaps that require further research. Overall, the reported estimates show that preventive chemotherapy is generally cost-effective, supporting WHO recommendations. More specifically, the cost per DALY averted estimates relating to community-wide preventive chemotherapy for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis were particularly favourable when compared with other public health interventions. Cost per DALY averted estimates of school-based preventive chemotherapy for schistosomiasis and STH were also generally favourable but more variable. Notably, the broader socioeconomic benefits are likely not being fully captured by the DALYs averted metric. No estimates of cost per DALY averted relating to community-wide mass antibiotic treatment for trachoma were found, highlighting the need for further research. These findings are important for informing global health policy and support the need for continuing NTD control and elimination efforts.

Summary box International health partnerships (IHPs) are institutional arrangements between high-income country (HIC) health institutions and counterparts, usually in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), and typically involve secondments or volunteering placements to support clinical delivery, capacity building and health systems strengthening. Increasingly, reciprocity is viewed as key to an effective IHP.1 There are few reasons to contest the principle, for example, because it can allow both sides of a partnership to benefit, but it is nonetheless striking how poorly conceptualised it is as a term and practice within IHPs. The report, Global Health Partnerships: the UK contribution to health in developing countries,2 placed ‘mutual learning’ at the core of how institutions should approach IHPs. It propelled the …

BackgroundSeveral measures recommended by the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have not been implemented in the European Union, despite changes in the legislation such as the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD). This study aims to understand smokers’ and recent quitters’ levels of support for tobacco control measures that go beyond the TPD during and after its implementation.MethodsData from wave 1 (2016, n=6011) and wave 2 (2018, n=6027) of the EUREST-PLUS International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Six European Countries Survey, a cohort of adult smokers in Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Spain were used to estimate the level of support for seven different tobacco control measures, overall and by country.ResultsIn 2018, the highest support was for implementing measures to further regulate tobacco products (50.5%) and for holding tobacco companies accountable for the harm caused by smoking (48.8%). Additionally, in 2018, 40% of smokers and recent quitters supported a total ban on cigarettes and other tobacco products within ten years, if assistance to quit smoking is provided. Overall, support for tobacco control measures among smokers and recent quitters after the implementation of the TPD remained stable over time.ConclusionThere is considerable support among smokers and recent quitters for tobacco control measures that go beyond the current measures implemented. A significant percentage of smokers would support a ban on tobacco products in the future if the government provided assistance to quit smoking. This highlights the importance of implementing measures to increase smoking cessation in conjunction with other policies.

IntroductionIn recognition of our increasingly globalised world, global health is now a required component of the medical school curriculum in the UK. We review the current provision of global health education (GHE) in UK medical schools to identify gaps in compulsory teaching.MethodsWe conducted a review of the literature to inform a two-part electronic survey of global health compulsory teaching, optional teaching and pre-elective training. Surveys were sent to all 33 UK medical schools for completion by the faculty lead on global health and the nominated final year student representative.ResultsSurveys were returned by 29 (88%) medical school faculty and 15 (45%) medical student representatives; 24 (83%) faculty and 10 (67%) students reported including GHE in the core curriculum; however, there was wide variation in the learning outcomes covered. On average 75% of faculty and 82% of students reported covering recommended global health themes ‘global burden of disease’, ‘socioeconomic and environmental determinants of health’, ‘human rights and ethics’, and ‘cultural diversity and health’, while only 48% of faculty and 33% of students reported teaching on ‘health systems’ and ‘global health governance’. Almost all institutions offered optional global health programmes and most offered some form of pre-elective training, although content and delivery were variable.ConclusionOver the last decade, the inclusion of global health in the core curriculum of UK medical schools has increased dramatically. Yet, despite interest among students, significant gaps are apparent in current GHE. Governing bodies in medical education should establish a comprehensive national strategy to help improve access to fundamental GHE for all medical students.

A saving grace of the COVID-19 pandemic in high-income and upper middle-income countries has been the relative sparing of children. As the disease spreads across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), long-standing system vulnerabilities may tragically manifest, and we worry that children will be increasingly impacted, both directly and indirectly. Drawing on our shared child pneumonia experience globally, we highlight these potential impacts on children in LMICs and propose actions for a collective response. Current data suggest children are susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection but are less likely than adults to become severely ill.1–4 Although at first glance these data appear reassuring, the child pneumonia, and broader global child health, experience provides a forewarning of what may be coming in LMICs. High-income countries (HICs) have an under-5 pneumonia mortality rate of 3 per 100 000.5 In contrast, the rate in LMICs is 200 per 100 000 population, with pneumonia the leading infectious cause of under-5 death globally.5 While yet unknown, COVID-19, a viral pneumonia syndrome, may impact children in LMICs more severely than what has been observed to date. The risk factors for poor outcomes in pneumonia …

BackgroundThe Sundarbans in India is a rural, forested region where children are exposed to a high risk of drowning due to its waterlogged geography. Current data collection systems capture few drowning deaths in this region.MethodsA community-based survey was conducted in the Sundarbans to determine the drowning mortality rate for children aged 1 to 4 years and 5 to 9 years. A community knowledge approach was used. Meetings were held with community residents and key informants to identify drowning deaths in the population. Identified deaths were verified by the child’s household through a structured survey, inquiring on the circumstances around the drowning death.ResultsThe drowning mortality rate for children aged 1 to 4 years was 243.8 per 100 000 children and for 5 to 9 years was 38.8 per 100 000 children. 58.0% of deaths were among children aged 1 to 2 years. No differences in rates between boys and girls were found. Most children drowned in ponds within 50 metres of their homes. Children were usually unaccompanied with their primary caretaker engaged in household work. A minority of children were treated by formal health providers.ConclusionsDrowning is a major cause of death among children in the Sundarbans, particularly those aged 1 to 4 years. Interventions keeping children in safe spaces away from water are urgently required. The results illustrate how routine data collection systems grossly underestimate drowning deaths, emphasising the importance of community-based surveys in capturing these deaths in rural low- and middle-income country contexts. The community knowledge approach provides a low-resource, validated methodology for this purpose.

Background Incident reporting systems in healthcare are historically based on staff descriptions of adverse events. An increasing body of literature suggests patients provide critical insights to risk and error, but their potential has not sufficiently been investigated at the incident level. This study aims to examine to what extent patient complaints and staff incident reports discuss identical incidents, and how their perspectives could be integrated for more comprehensive safety analysis. Methods Deterministic data linkage was performed on all complaints (n=5,265) and staff incident reports (‘PSIs’) (n=81,077) between April 2014 and March 2019 at a multisite hospital in London. A total of 402 complaints covered at least one incident also identified in the PSIs, and were included in the study. All incidents reported in complaints and staff incident reports were codified based on problem domain; problem severity; stage of care; staff group implicated; reported harm; and descriptive level (eg, description of human factors and root causes); adapted from the Healthcare Complaints Analysis Tool (HCAT) and the National Reporting and Learning System (NRLS). Aggregated coding outputs informed targeted qualitative analysis of free text incident reports for an in-depth exploration of key overlap and discrepancies in patient and staff descriptions of unsafe care. Results Our preliminary results indicate staff and patients reported similar problem themes for 81.1% of overlapping incidents (of which 66.5% clinical, followed by 27.1% institutional, and 6.4% relational), but commonly differed in their description of contributing factors and root causes (eg, different time points in patient journey). Alongside overlapping incidents, patients reported an average of 1.4 additional incidents in their complaint, of which 23.6% were high severity. Additional patient-reported incidents included blind spot clinical issues (36.7%; eg care continuity; care omissions) or relationship issues pre- or post mutually identified incidents (39.1%; eg failure to listen to patient concerns; breach of candour). Conclusion Our study suggests that traditional, clinician-based models of safety and risk are likely to omit critical dimensions of root causes to adverse events. Patients and public are able to contribute to safety monitoring and evaluation in two ways: by highlighting overlooked or undervalued aspects of unsafe care (eg failure to listen; absent communication) and by revealing latent causes of incidents across time (eg failed continuity of care; systemic care omissions).

Summary box The COVID-19 pandemic underscores that infectious disease is a global challenge. For many infectious diseases, vaccines are the best tools available for control and elimination. Vaccines helped eliminate smallpox and reduce annual measles deaths from 2.6 million before widespread vaccination to 140 000 in 2018.1 Vaccines avert two to three million deaths annually, and they are often touted as one of the most cost-effective health interventions.1 Since infectious diseases do not recognise borders, vaccine deployment requires global cooperation to achieve the best outcomes. Presently, many countries have halted vaccination programmes and campaigns, including for measles and polio, where vaccination has had transformative impact on the burden of disease. Gavi estimates that at least 13.5 million people are missing vaccinations, and that will rise as the pandemic continues.2 Hence, the burden of vaccine-preventable diseases will increase as a consequence of COVID-19: this is especially true in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), which already suffer from a greater infectious disease burden than high-income countries and where the pandemic could, as elsewhere, overwhelm health systems that have a lower capacity. Sustaining routine vaccination programmes in Africa, for example, is estimated to prevent 140 deaths for every …

IntroductionThe African Copperbelt is a site of intense artisanal and industrial mining and refining of copper and cobalt. Anecdotal reports of erectile dysfunction (ED) among mineworkers in the area led us to conduct an explorative study to investigate the possible association between ED and working in mining-related jobs.MethodsWe included 42 consecutive men (18–40 years) buying sildenafil (the active substance of Viagra) from a pharmacy located in a popular neighbourhood in Lubumbashi, and 42 age-matched (±2 years) men buying painkillers. All participants replied to questionnaires administered face-to-face to obtain sociodemographic data, including information on occupation, and a score of erectile function using the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF6).ResultsThe IIEF6 score (maximum 30) was lower among sildenafil-buyers (median 17, range 8–30) than among painkiller-buyers (median 30, range 17–30). The proportion of mining-related jobs was higher among sildenafil-buyers (19/42, 45%) than among painkiller-buyers (7/42, 17%), yielding an OR of 4.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 11.3; p=0.009). The proportion of mining-related jobs was higher among men with ED (defined as IIEF6 DiscussionThe findings of this preliminary study justify further epidemiological studies of the possible role of occupational exposures in the pathogenesis of male sexual dysfunction among miners and workers in the copper and cobalt industry.

The journey to universal health coverage (UHC) is full of challenges, which to a great extent are specific to each country. 'Learning for UHC' is a central component of countries' health system strengthening agendas. Our group has been engaged for a decade in facilitating collective learning for UHC through a range of modalities at global, regional and national levels. We present some of our experience and draw lessons for countries and international actors interested in strengthening national systemic learning capacities for UHC. The main lesson is that with appropriate collective intelligence processes, digital tools and facilitation capacities, countries and international agencies can mobilise the many actors with knowledge relevant to the design, implementation and evaluation of UHC policies. However, really building learning health systems will take more time and commitment. Each country will have to invest substantively in developing its specific learning systemic capacities, with an active programme of work addressing supportive leadership, organisational culture and knowledge management processes. ispartof: BMJ GLOBAL HEALTH vol:4 issue:6 ispartof: location:England status: published

Summary box The Syrian war has resulted in over 5.6 million refugees, the majority of whom reside in the neighbouring countries, including Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey.1 Since 2015, over 1 million refugees, the majority of whom are from Syria, entered Europe through Greece in the hope of transitioning to Northern European countries to seek asylum. Germany was the favoured destination for many refugees due to its welcoming policies for integration, which include liberal asylum laws, healthcare and educational advantages and pre-existing familial links.2 As of December 2018, there are nearly 700 000 Syrians living in Germany, a large increase from 2016 due to positive decisions on asylum claims as well as resettlements.3 A significant number who sought asylum in Germany hold professional qualifications and university degrees, including medical doctors, dentists and other healthcare workers.4 Although there are no official numbers, the German Medical Association states that the largest influx of foreign doctors in the past year are …

A recent symposium and workshop in Khartoum, the capital of the Republic of Sudan, brought together broad expertise from three universities to address the current burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases facing the Sudanese healthcare system. These meetings identified common challenges that impact the burden of diseases in the country, most notably gaps in data and infrastructure which are essential to inform and deliver effective interventions. Non-communicable diseases, including obesity, type 2 diabetes, renal disease and cancer are increasing dramatically, contributing to multimorbidity. At the same time, progress against communicable diseases has been slow, and the burden of chronic and endemic infections remains considerable, with parasitic diseases (such as malaria, leishmaniasis and schistosomiasis) causing substantial morbidity and mortality. Antimicrobial resistance has become a major threat throughout the healthcare system, with an emerging impact on maternal, neonatal, and paediatric populations. Meanwhile, malnutrition, micronutrient deficiency, and poor perinatal outcomes remain common and contribute to a lifelong burden of disease. These challenges echo the UN sustainable development goals and concentrating on them in a unified strategy will be necessary to address the national burden of disease. At a time when the country is going through societal and political transition, we draw focus on the country and the need for resolution of its healthcare needs.

Surveillance and diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum malaria relies predominantly on rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). However, false-negative RDT results are known to occur for a variety of reasons, including operator error, poor storage conditions, pfhrp2/3 gene deletions, poor performance of specific RDT brands and lots, and low-parasite-density infections. We used RDT and microscopy results from 85,000 children enrolled in Demographic Health Surveys and Malaria Indicator Surveys from 2009 to 2015 across 19 countries to explore the distribution of and risk factors for false-negative RDTs in Sub40 Saharan Africa, where malaria’s impact is greatest. We sought to (i) identify spatial and demographic patterns of false-negative RDT (FN-RDT) results, defined as a negative RDT but positive gold-standard microscopy test, and (ii) estimate the percentage of infections missed within community-based malaria surveys due to FN-RDT results. Across all studies, 19.9% [95% CI: 19.0 – 20.9] of microscopy-positive subjects were negative by RDT. The distribution of FN-RDT results was spatially heterogeneous. The variance in FN-RDT results was best explained by the prevalence of malaria, with an increase in FN46 RDT results observed at lower transmission intensities, among younger subjects, and in urban areas. The observed proportion of FN-RDT results was not predicted by differences in RDT brand or lot performance alone. These findings characterise how the probability of detection by RDTs varies in different transmission settings and emphasize the need for careful interpretation of prevalence estimates based on surveys employing RDTs alone. Further studies are needed to characterise the cost-effectiveness of improved malaria diagnostics (e.g. PCR or highly sensitive RDTs) in community52 based surveys, especially in regions of low transmission intensity or high urbanicity.

ObjectiveTo examine the associations of partial and comprehensive smoke-free legislation with neonatal and infant mortality in Brazil using a quasi-experimental study design.DesignMonthly longitudinal (panel) ecological study from January 2000 to December 2016.SettingAll Brazilian municipalities (n=5565).ParticipantsInfant populations.InterventionSmoke-free legislation in effect in each municipality and month. Legislation was encoded as basic (allowing smoking areas), partial (segregated smoking rooms) or comprehensive (no smoking in public buildings). Associations were quantified by immediate step and longer term slope/trend changes in outcomes.Statistical analysesMunicipal-level linear fixed-effects regression models.Main outcomes measuresInfant and neonatal mortality.ResultsImplementation of partial smoke-free legislation was associated with a −3.3 % (95% CI −6.2% to −0.4%) step reduction in the municipal infant mortality rate, but no step change in neonatal mortality. Comprehensive smoke-free legislation implementation was associated with −5.2 % (95% CI −8.3% to −2.1%) and −3.4 % (95% CI −6.7% to −0.1%) step reductions in infant and neonatal mortality, respectively, and a −0.36 (95% CI −0.66 to−0.06) annual decline in the infant mortality rate. We estimated that had all smoke-free legislation introduced since 2004 been comprehensive, an additional 10 091 infant deaths (95% CI 1196 to 21 761) could have been averted.ConclusionsStrengthening smoke-free legislation in Brazil is associated with improvements in infant health outcomes—particularly under comprehensive legislation. Governments should accelerate implementation of comprehensive smoke-free legislation to protect infant health and achieve the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal three.

Social position is known to play a role in the quality of ageing, notably through the stimulation/dysregulation of key physiological systems in response to external stresses. Using data from one wave of Understanding Society including 9088 participants, we defined, as an extension of the allostatic load, a synthetic Biological Health Score (BHS) capturing the wear-and-tear of four physiological systems (endocrine, inflammatory, cardiovascular and metabolic systems) and two organs (liver and kidney). We used 16 established blood-derived biomarkers of these systems to calculate the BHS and explored the relative contribution of socioeconomic position to the BHS and its main components across age groups. We identified a systematic decreasing education-related gradient of the BHS (p

BackgroundLimited studies have explored how health-seeking behaviour during pregnancy through to delivery affect neonatal outcomes. We modelled health-seeking behaviour across urban and rural settings in Pakistan, where poor neonatal outcomes persist with wide disparities.Methods and findingsA system dynamics model was developed and parameterised. Following validation tests, the model was used to determine neonatal mortality for pregnant women considering their decisions to access, refuse and switch antenatal care services in four provider sectors: public, private, traditional and charitable. Four health-seeking scenarios were tested across different pregnancy trimesters. Health-seeking behaviour in different subgroups by geographical locations and social network effect was modelled. The largest reduction in neonatal mortality was achieved with antenatal care provided by skilled providers in public, private or charitable sectors, combined with the use of institutional delivery. Women’s social networks had strong influences on if, when and where to seek care. Interventions by Lady Health Workers had a minimal impact on health-seeking behaviour and neonatal outcomes after trimester 1. Optimal benefits were achieved for urban women when antenatal care was accessed within trimester 2, but for rural women within trimester 1. Antenatal care access delayed to trimester 3 had no protective impact on neonatal mortality.ConclusionsSystem dynamics modelling enables capturing the complexity of health-seeking behaviours and impact on outcomes, informing intervention design, implementation of targeted policies and uptake of services specific to urban/rural settings considering structural enablers/barriers to access, cultural contexts and strong social network influences.

Introduction: The generation of robust evidence has been emphasised as a priority for global health. Evidence generation spans a wide range of activities including clinical trials, surveillance programmes and health system performance measurement. As resources for healthcare and research are limited, the desirability of research expenditure should be assessed on the same basis as other healthcare resources, that is, the health gains from research must be expected to exceed the health opportunity costs imposed as funds are diverted to research rather than service provision. Methods: We developed a transmission and costing model to examine the impact of generating additional evidence to reduce uncertainties on the evolution of a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia. Results: We demonstrate three important points. First, we can quantify the value of additional evidence in terms of the health gain it is expected to generate. Second, we can quantify the health opportunity cost imposed by research expenditure. Third, the value of evidence generation depends on the budgetary policies in place for managing HIV resources under uncertainty. Generating evidence to reduce uncertainty is particularly valuable when decision makers are required to strictly adhere to expenditure plans and when transfers of funds across geographies/programmes are restricted. Conclusion: Better evidence can lead to health improvements in the same way as direct delivery of healthcare. Quantitative appraisals of evidence generation activities are important and should reflect the impact of improved evidence on population health, evidence generation costs and budgetary policies in place.

The Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS)) has enabled substantial progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in Brazil. However, structural weakness, economic and political crises and austerity policies that have capped public expenditure growth are threatening its sustainability and outcomes. This paper analyses the Brazilian health system progress since 2000 and the current and potential effects of the coalescing economic and political crises and the subsequent austerity policies. We use literature review, policy analysis and secondary data from governmental sources in 2000–2017 to examine changes in political and economic context, health financing, health resources and healthcare service coverage in SUS. We find that, despite a favourable context, which enabled expansion of UHC from 2003 to 2014, structural problems persist in SUS, including gaps in organisation and governance, low public funding and suboptimal resource allocation. Consequently, large regional disparities exist in access to healthcare services and health outcomes, with poorer regions and lower socioeconomic population groups disadvantaged the most. These structural problems and disparities will likely worsen with the austerity measures introduced by the current government, and risk reversing the achievements of SUS in improving population health outcomes. The speed at which adverse effects of the current and political crises are manifested in the Brazilian health system underscores the importance of enhancing health system resilience to counteract external shocks (such as economic and political crises) and internal shocks (such as sector-specific austerity policies and rapid ageing leading to rise in disease burden) to protect hard-achieved progress towards UHC.

Numerous epidemiological accounts suggest that waterpipe smoking (a.k.a. hookah, shisha, narghile) has become a global phenomenon, especially among youth. The alarming spread of waterpipe and accumulating evidence of its addictive and harmful effects represent a new threat in the global fight to limit tobacco related morbidity and mortality. In response to waterpipe’s alarming trends, major public health and tobacco control organizations have started or are considering systematic collection of data about waterpipe smoking to monitor its trends and assess its harmful effects in different societies. Such plans require coordination and agreement on epidemiological measurement tools that reflect the uniqueness of this tobacco use method, and at the same time allow comparison of waterpipe trends across time and place, and with other tobacco use methods. We started a decade ago our work to develop standardized measures and definitions for the assessment of waterpipe smoking in epidemiological studies. In this communication, we try to expand and update these assessment tools in light of our increased knowledge and understanding of waterpipe use patterns, its context and marketing, as well as the need for evidence-guided policies and regulations to curb its spread. We have assembled for this purpose a group of leading waterpipe researchers worldwide, and worked through an iterative process to develop the suggested instruments and definitions based on what we know currently about the waterpipe epidemic. While the suggested measures are by no means comprehensive, we hope that they can provide the building blocks for standard and comparable surveillance of waterpipe smoking globally.