1. Challenges of Operational River Forecasting.
- Author
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Pagano, Thomas C., Wood, Andrew W., Ramos, Maria-Helena, Cloke, Hannah L., Pappenberger, Florian, Clark, Martyn P., Cranston, Michael, Kavetski, Dmitri, Mathevet, Thibault, Sorooshian, Soroosh, and Verkade, Jan S.
- Subjects
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STREAMFLOW , *WATER management , *HYDROLOGISTS , *WEATHER forecasting , *HYDROMETEOROLOGY , *HYDROLOGIC cycle - Abstract
Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human-natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1) making the most of available data, 2) making accurate predictions using models, 3) turning hydrometeorological forecasts into effective warnings, and 4) administering an operational service. Each challenge presents a variety of research opportunities, including the development of automated quality-control algorithms for the myriad of data used in operational streamflow forecasts, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting techniques that allow for forecaster input, methods for using human-generated weather forecasts quantitatively, and quantification of human interference in the hydrologic cycle. Furthermore, much can be done to improve the communication of probabilistic forecasts and to design a forecasting paradigm that effectively combines increasingly sophisticated forecasting technology with subjective forecaster expertise. These areas are described in detail to share a real-world perspective and focus for ongoing research endeavors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
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