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Challenges of Operational River Forecasting.
- Source :
-
Journal of Hydrometeorology . Aug2014, Vol. 15 Issue 4, p1692-1707. 16p. - Publication Year :
- 2014
-
Abstract
- Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human-natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1) making the most of available data, 2) making accurate predictions using models, 3) turning hydrometeorological forecasts into effective warnings, and 4) administering an operational service. Each challenge presents a variety of research opportunities, including the development of automated quality-control algorithms for the myriad of data used in operational streamflow forecasts, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting techniques that allow for forecaster input, methods for using human-generated weather forecasts quantitatively, and quantification of human interference in the hydrologic cycle. Furthermore, much can be done to improve the communication of probabilistic forecasts and to design a forecasting paradigm that effectively combines increasingly sophisticated forecasting technology with subjective forecaster expertise. These areas are described in detail to share a real-world perspective and focus for ongoing research endeavors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1525755X
- Volume :
- 15
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Journal of Hydrometeorology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 97270688
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0188.1