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This work presents results from simulations of the 2000 July 14 (“Bastille Day”) solar proton event. We used the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Model (EPREM) and the CORona-HELiosphere (CORHEL) software suite within the SPE Threat Assessment Tool (STAT) framework to model proton acceleration to GeV energies due to the passage of a CME through the low solar corona, and we compared the model results to GOES-08 observations. The coupled simulation models particle acceleration from 1 to 20 R ⊙, after which it models only particle transport. The simulation roughly reproduces the peak event fluxes and the timing and spatial location of the energetic particle event. While peak fluxes and overall variation within the first few hours of the simulation agree well with observations, the modeled CME moves beyond the inner simulation boundary after several hours. The model therefore accurately describes the acceleration processes in the low corona and resolves the sites of most rapid acceleration close to the Sun. Plots of integral flux envelopes from multiple simulated observers near Earth further improve the comparison to observations and increase potential for predicting solar particle events. Broken power-law fits to fluence spectra agree with diffusive acceleration theory over the low energy range. Over the high energy range, they demonstrate the variability in acceleration rate and mirror the interevent variability observed in solar cycle 23 ground-level enhancements. We discuss ways to improve STAT predictions, including using corrected GOES energy bins and computing fits to the seed spectrum. This paper demonstrates a predictive tool for simulating low-coronal solar energetic particle acceleration.

We investigate the initiation and early evolution of 12 solar eruptions, including six active region hot channel and six quiescent filament eruptions, which were well observed by the \textsl{Solar Dynamics Observatory}, as well as by the \textsl{Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory} for the latter. The sample includes one failed eruption and 11 coronal mass ejections, with velocities ranging from 493 to 2140~km~s$^{-1}$. A detailed analysis of the eruption kinematics yields the following main results. (1) The early evolution of all events consists of a slow-rise phase followed by a main-acceleration phase, the height-time profiles of which differ markedly and can be best fit, respectively, by a linear and an exponential function. This indicates that different physical processes dominate in these phases, which is at variance with models that involve a single process. (2) The kinematic evolution of the eruptions tends to be synchronized with the flare light curve in both phases. The synchronization is often but not always close. A delayed onset of the impulsive flare phase is found in the majority of the filament eruptions (5 out of 6). This delay, and its trend to be larger for slower eruptions, favor ideal MHD instability models. (3) The average decay index at the onset heights of the main acceleration is close to the threshold of the torus instability for both groups of events (although based on a tentative coronal field model for the hot channels), suggesting that this instability initiates and possibly drives the main acceleration., Accepted for publication in ApJ; 24 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables

A novel tool aimed to detect solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Lagrangian point L1 and to forecast their geoeffectiveness is presented in this paper. This approach is based on the analysis of in situ magnetic field and plasma measurements to compute some important magnetohydrodynamic quantities of the solar wind (the total pressure, the magnetic helicity, and the magnetic and kinetic energy), which are used to identify the CME events, that is their arrival and transit times, and to assess their likelihood for impacting the Earths magnetosphere. The method is essentially based on the comparison of the topological properties of the CME magnetic field configuration and of the CME energetic budget with those of the quasi-steady ambient solar wind. The algorithm performances are estimated by testing the tool on solar wind data collected in situ by the Wind spacecraft from 2005 to 2016. In the scanned 12 yr time interval, it results that (i) the procedure efficiency is of 86% for the weakest magnetospheric disturbances, increasing with the level of the geomagnetic storming, up to 100% for the most intense geomagnetic events, (ii) zero false positive predictions are produced by the algorithm, and (iii) the mean delay between the potentially geoeffective CME detection and the geomagnetic storm onset if of 4 hr, with a 98% 2-8 hr confidence interval. Hence, this new technique appears to be very promising in forecasting space weather phenomena associated to CMEs.

Observations from the Kepler mission have revealed frequent superflares on young and active solar-like stars. Superflares result from the large-scale restructuring of stellar magnetic fields, and are associated with the eruption of coronal material (a coronal mass ejection, or CME) and energy release that can be orders of magnitude greater than those observed in the largest solar flares. These catastrophic events, if frequent, can significantly impact the potential habitability of terrestrial exoplanets through atmospheric erosion or intense radiation exposure at the surface. We present results from numerical modeling designed to understand how an eruptive superflare from a young solar-type star, $\kappa^{1}Cet$, could occur and would impact its astrospheric environment. Our data-inspired, three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic modeling shows that global-scale shear concentrated near the radial-field polarity inversion line can energize the closed-field stellar corona sufficiently to power a global, eruptive superflare that releases approximately the same energy as the extreme 1859 Carrington event from the Sun. We examine proxy measures of synthetic emission during the flare and estimate the observational signatures of our CME-driven shock, both of which could have extreme space-weather impacts on the habitability of any Earth-like exoplanets. We also speculate that the observed 1986 Robinson-Bopp superflare from $\kappa^{1}Cet$ was perhaps as extreme for that star as the Carrington flare was for the Sun., Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

The study of historical great geomagnetic storms is crucial for assessing the possible risks to the technological infrastructure of a modern society, caused by extreme space–weather events. The normal benchmark has been the great geomagnetic storm of 1859 September, the so-called "Carrington Event." However, there are numerous records of another great geomagnetic storm in 1872 February. This storm, which occurred about 12 years after the Carrington Event, resulted in comparable magnetic disturbances and auroral displays over large areas of the Earth. We have revisited this great geomagnetic storm in terms of the auroral and sunspot records in historical documents from East Asia. In particular, we have surveyed the auroral records from East Asia and estimated the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval to be near 242 invariant latitude, on the basis that the aurora was seen near the zenith at Shanghai (20° magnetic latitude, MLAT). These results confirm that this geomagnetic storm of 1872 February was as extreme as the Carrington Event, at least in terms of the equatorward motion of the auroral oval. Indeed, our results support the interpretation of the simultaneous auroral observations made at Bombay (10° MLAT). The East Asian auroral records have indicated extreme brightness, suggesting unusual precipitation of high-intensity, low-energy electrons during this geomagnetic storm. We have compared the duration of the East Asian auroral displays with magnetic observations in Bombay and found that the auroral displays occurred in the initial phase, main phase, and early recovery phase of the magnetic storm.

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, andmore » IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.« less

The 2015 March 15 coronal mass ejection as one of the two that together drove the largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 so far was associated with sympathetic filament eruptions. We investigate the relations between the different filaments involved in the eruption. A surge-like small-scale filament motion is confirmed as the trigger that initiated the erupting filament with multi-wavelength observations and using a forced magnetic field extrapolation method. When the erupting filament moved to an open magnetic field region, it experienced an obvious acceleration process and was accompanied by a C-class flare and the rise of another larger filament that eventually failed to erupt. We measure the decay index of the background magnetic field, which presents a critical height of 118 Mm. Combining with a potential field source surface extrapolation method, we analyze the distributions of the large-scale magnetic field, which indicates that the open magnetic field region may provide a favorable condition for F2 rapid acceleration and have some relation with the largest solar storm. The comparison between the successful and failed filament eruptions suggests that the confining magnetic field plays an important role in the preconditions for an eruption.

The first coordinated observations of an active region using ground-based radio telescopes and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) satellites from different heliocentric longitudes were performed to study solar radio type-I noise storms. A type-I noise storm was observed between 100 and 300 MHz during a period from 2010 February 6 to 7. During this period the two STEREO satellites were located approximately 65° (ahead) and –70° (behind) from the Sun-Earth line, which is well suited to observe the earthward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio flux of the type-I noise storm was enhanced after the preceding CME and began to decrease before the subsequent CME. This time variation of the type-I noise storm was directly related to the change of the particle acceleration processes around its source region. Potential-field source-surface extrapolation from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager (SOHO/MDI) magnetograms suggested that there was a multipolar magnetic system around the active region from which the CMEs occurred around the magnetic neutral line of the system. From our observational results, we suggest that the type-I noise storm was activated at a side-lobe reconnection region that was formed after eruption of the preceding CME. This magnetic structure was deformed by a loop expansion that led to the subsequent CME, which then suppressed the radio burst emission.