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Vision language models (VLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across a wide range of downstream tasks. However, their proficiency in spatial reasoning remains limited, despite its crucial role in tasks involving navigation and interaction with physical environments. Specifically, much of the spatial reasoning in these tasks occurs in two-dimensional (2D) environments, and our evaluation reveals that state-of-the-art VLMs frequently generate implausible and incorrect responses to composite spatial reasoning problems, including simple pathfinding tasks that humans can solve effortlessly at a glance. To address this, we explore an effective approach to enhance 2D spatial reasoning within VLMs by training the model on basic spatial capabilities. We begin by disentangling the key components of 2D spatial reasoning: direction comprehension, distance estimation, and localization. Our central hypothesis is that mastering these basic spatial capabilities can significantly enhance a model's performance on composite spatial tasks requiring advanced spatial understanding and combinatorial problem-solving. To investigate this hypothesis, we introduce Sparkle, a framework that fine-tunes VLMs on these three basic spatial capabilities by synthetic data generation and targeted supervision to form an instruction dataset for each capability. Our experiments demonstrate that VLMs fine-tuned with Sparkle achieve significant performance gains, not only in the basic tasks themselves but also in generalizing to composite and out-of-distribution spatial reasoning tasks (e.g., improving from 13.5% to 40.0% on the shortest path problem). These findings underscore the effectiveness of mastering basic spatial capabilities in enhancing composite spatial problem-solving, offering insights for improving VLMs' spatial reasoning capabilities.

Graph Neural Networks deliver strong classification results but often suffer from poor calibration performance, leading to overconfidence or underconfidence. This is particularly problematic in high stakes applications where accurate uncertainty estimates are essential. Existing post hoc methods, such as temperature scaling, fail to effectively utilize graph structures, while current GNN calibration methods often overlook the potential of leveraging diverse input information and model ensembles jointly. In the paper, we propose Graph Ensemble Temperature Scaling, a novel calibration framework that combines input and model ensemble strategies within a Graph Mixture of Experts archi SOTA calibration techniques, reducing expected calibration error by 25 percent across 10 GNN benchmark datasets. Additionally, GETS is computationally efficient, scalable, and capable of selecting effective input combinations for improved calibration performance.

Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for robust and reliable predictions. However, existing spatiotemporal deep learning mostly focuses on deterministic prediction, overlooking the inherent uncertainty in such prediction. Particularly, highly-granular spatiotemporal datasets are often sparse, posing extra challenges in prediction and uncertainty quantification. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel post-hoc Sparsity-awar Uncertainty Calibration (SAUC) framework, which calibrates uncertainty in both zero and non-zero values. To develop SAUC, we firstly modify the state-of-the-art deterministic spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) to probabilistic ones in the pre-calibration phase. Then we calibrate the probabilistic ST-GNNs for zero and non-zero values using quantile approaches.Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that SAUC can effectively fit the variance of sparse data and generalize across two real-world spatiotemporal datasets at various granularities. Specifically, our empirical experiments show a 20\% reduction in calibration errors in zero entries on the sparse traffic accident and urban crime prediction. Overall, this work demonstrates the theoretical and empirical values of the SAUC framework, thus bridging a significant gap between uncertainty quantification and spatiotemporal prediction., Comment: Paper accepted by ACM SIGSPATIAL 2024

Transportation mode share analysis is important to various real-world transportation tasks as it helps researchers understand the travel behaviors and choices of passengers. A typical example is the prediction of communities' travel mode share by accounting for their sociodemographics like age, income, etc., and travel modes' attributes (e.g. travel cost and time). However, there exist only limited efforts in integrating the structure of the urban built environment, e.g., road networks, into the mode share models to capture the impacts of the built environment. This task usually requires manual feature engineering or prior knowledge of the urban design features. In this study, we propose deep hybrid models (DHM), which directly combine road networks and sociodemographic features as inputs for travel mode share analysis. Using graph embedding (GE) techniques, we enhance travel demand models with a more powerful representation of urban structures. In experiments of mode share prediction in Chicago, results demonstrate that DHM can provide valuable spatial insights into the sociodemographic structure, improving the performance of travel demand models in estimating different mode shares at the city level. Specifically, DHM improves the results by more than 20\% while retaining the interpretation power of the choice models, demonstrating its superiority in interpretability, prediction accuracy, and geographical insights., Comment: 29 pages

Citywalk, a recently popular form of urban travel, requires genuine personalization and understanding of fine-grained requests compared to traditional itinerary planning. In this paper, we introduce the novel task of Open-domain Urban Itinerary Planning (OUIP), which generates personalized urban itineraries from user requests in natural language. We then present ITINERA, an OUIP system that integrates spatial optimization with large language models to provide customized urban itineraries based on user needs. This involves decomposing user requests, selecting candidate points of interest (POIs), ordering the POIs based on cluster-aware spatial optimization, and generating the itinerary. Experiments on real-world datasets and the performance of the deployed system demonstrate our system's capacity to deliver personalized and spatially coherent itineraries compared to current solutions. Source codes of ITINERA are available at https://github.com/YihongT/ITINERA.

Time Series Supplier Allocation (TSSA) poses a complex NP-hard challenge, aimed at refining future order dispatching strategies to satisfy order demands with maximum supply efficiency fully. Traditionally derived from financial portfolio management, the Black-Litterman (BL) model offers a new perspective for the TSSA scenario by balancing expected returns against insufficient supply risks. However, its application within TSSA is constrained by the reliance on manually constructed perspective matrices and spatio-temporal market dynamics, coupled with the absence of supervisory signals and data unreliability inherent to supplier information. To solve these limitations, we introduce the pioneering Deep Black-Litterman Model (DBLM), which innovatively adapts the BL model from financial roots to supply chain context. Leveraging the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNS), DBLM automatically generates future perspective matrices for TSSA, by integrating spatio-temporal dependency. Moreover, a novel Spearman rank correlation distinctively supervises our approach to address the lack of supervisory signals, specifically designed to navigate through the complexities of supplier risks and interactions. This is further enhanced by a masking mechanism aimed at counteracting the biases from unreliable data, thereby improving the model's precision and reliability. Extensive experimentation on two datasets unequivocally demonstrates DBLM's enhanced performance in TSSA, setting new standards for the field. Our findings and methodology are made available for community access and further development., Comment: In submission to SIGKDD 2024