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This article discusses the factors that contribute to productivity, growth, and development in India and beyond. It highlights the importance of innovation behavior, productivity and efficiency of the MSME sector, firm exit decisions, low labor productivity, non-performing financial sector assets, cross-border mergers, and the creation of decent employment. The article also emphasizes the role of productivity growth in accelerating economic growth and improving people's welfare. It examines specific issues such as firms' performance and innovation, technical efficiency of banks, characteristics of innovative firms, financial accessibility for MSMEs, firm exit in manufacturing industries, the impact of cross-border mergers on innovation efforts, and productivity disparities across Indian states. [Extracted from the article]

Land supply in China is planned by governments, and the supply ratios of various types of land are in relatively rigid administrative control. This paper constructs a DSGE model to study the relationship between land supply marketization in China and economic fluctuations. Moreover, this paper evaluates the social welfare gains from land marketization. We document that the government's land planning constraint impacts consumption and social welfare through the land price and final output, causing resource misallocation losses in aggregate investment and output. Quantitatively, the optimal upper limit of industrial land supply is about 40% to achieve the maximum social welfare. This paper stresses the necessity of revitalizing China's land market, and simultaneously speeding up the marketization of collectively operated construction land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a 2019 article published in this journal, Kyer and Maggs examined the frequency and characteristics of double-dip recessions and multi-dip recessions for 21 countries during the 1960:1 to 2014:4 period. A review of Kyer and Maggs generated a number of questions about a particular feature of their business cycle dating methodology. Specifically, they determined that a recession ends once real gross domestic product returns to or exceeds the previous peak level of real gross domestic product. To demonstrate the impact this nontraditional feature of their methodology has on their results and conclusions, this paper repeats their analysis where, in contrast to Kyer and Maggs, it is assumed that a recession ends once the economy reaches the trough quarter in a business cycle. The application of this more traditional feature of business cycle dating methodology to the same countries and sample period yields results that do not support their conclusions about either the frequency of double-dip recessions or the number of countries in their sample that experienced multi-dip recessions. This paper first shows that double-dip recessions represent just 7.2% of all recessions and, therefore, are not as common as Kyer and Maggs reported. Second, only five of the 21 countries experienced recessions with two or more additional dips in economic activity over the entire sample period. Finally, only six countries experienced a multi-dip recession during the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the transmission and effectiveness of the public expenditure shock across business cycle phases in the Indian economy. The empirical results suggest that the deflationary impact of the public expenditure shock and the subsequent accommodative response of interest rates exhibit a countercyclical public expenditure multiplier during the contraction period. Moreover, the large and significant negative impact of the public expenditure shock on inflation and the interest rate has resulted in a larger public expenditure multiplier during a supply-side recession than a demand-side recession. Based on empirical evidence, we suggest that policymakers consider the presence of nonlinearities in the transmission and effectiveness of the public expenditure shock while taking fiscal policy measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper integrates two theoretical frameworks to explore optimal resource allocation and the dynamics of the money cycle in a hypothetical economy. It examined the theoretical background of the problems of choice. The first framework considers an economy governed by an omniscient authority responsible for production and distribution decisions, focusing on the logic of choice and efficient resource allocation. The second framework introduces the concept of the new economic system of Economocracy, emphasizing the role of the Money Cycle theory in economic management and governance. By combining these frameworks, the paper provides a comprehensive understanding of productive and distributive efficiency and examines the impact of the money cycle on economic stability and growth. A mathematical modeling of the money cycle is presented to highlight the relationship between money distribution, economic capacity, and overall economic health. The integrated approach offers valuable insights for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing economic resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates differences in the views of rent negotiating landlords and retail trade tenants regarding the importance of various factors in their rent negotiations. The paper explores whether these actors' expectations are forward or backward looking as economic activity is increasing after the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, their different levels of trust in institutions, and in their counterpart as organisation and individual, are analysed. The study uses a web-based survey, gathering responses from some 100 landlords and tenants in the Swedish retail sector, and logit regressions. As demand increases after the pandemic, indicating a possibility to increase rents, the study finds that landlords are forward looking at this stage of the business cycle as regards industry developments, while tenants are backward looking or more focused on current contractual rents. Tenants focus more on vacancies and property value, which are set under pressure due to structural changes such as increased use of e-commerce and changes in working habits after the pandemic. Landlords show a higher level of trust in their counterpart as an individual than do tenants. This study contributes to an increased understanding of rent negotiations in two sectors – property and retail – that are facing structural challenges and difficulties in the wake of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the controversial topic of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and its impact on emerging, developing, and underdeveloped economies. The authors highlight that while some studies show positive effects of FDI on economic growth, others fail to find such a relationship. The article presents six papers that delve into various aspects of FDI, including its effects on economic diversification, technology transfer, innovation, global value chains, and cultural distance. The findings suggest that the relationship between FDI and economic growth is complex and context-dependent. The article concludes by suggesting future research avenues, including the role of government corruption, the interaction between FDI and human capital, and the differentiation of FDI types. [Extracted from the article]

The main objective of the present paper is to provide the reasons behind the rise and fall of resources for innovation policies in Brazil between 1999 and 2016. The paper also intends to provide a broad map of the financial relations between funding sources and financial agents in the Brazilian National System of Innovation (NSI). In order to do that, the paper uses mixed methods: a historical approach to cover the motivations of the political economy; principles of network analyses to map the institutional relations between funding sources and financial agents; and economic theory to understand the determinants of the cash flows that finance science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. The institutional arrangement of the Brazilian NSI led the financial cycle to rely, on a general level, on GDP dynamism; the strategy of selected public bodies; on the federal budget decision process; and on the external economic cycle. Between 2003 and 2014, political struggles led to economic policies that favoured GDP growth and public spending, while the opposite occurred from 2015 onwards. In general, institutions were not equipped to protect the financial resources from the political changes of the mid-2010s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the South African setting, encompassing a comprehensive analysis of historical, theoretical, and empirical evidence. Existing literature surveys demonstrate that several studies have been conducted in multiple countries to ascertain the correlation between inflation and unemployment. The review incorporated the postulations of many economic schools of thought as they are applied to South Africa. The Phillips Curve was examined in accordance with the research purpose. The process involves gathering secondary data from reputable sources such as Statistics South Africa, the South African Reserve Bank, and other reliable secondary sources to analyse this relationship. The findings are presented using linear regression, tables, and figures. The study utilised annual inflation and unemployment data in South Africa spanning from 2000 to 2022 to elucidate the correlation between inflation and unemployment. The study discovered that the link was nonlinear and did not exhibit any meaningful association or correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, due to the rapid growth of the world's population, the demand for agricultural products and food is growing increasingly. Therefore, the agricultural supply chain optimization has been grabbed by researchers to reduce food security concerns. On the other hand, the production amount of farmers is affected by various factors, including environmental conditions. In this paper, a supply chain network is investigated by developing a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model to effectively improve economic objectives under uncertainty. Then, a scenario-based robust optimization approach is employed to deal with the uncertainty. One of the novelities of our paper is considering weather conditions and economic fluctuations in different scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed mathematical model has been confirmed by a real case study of dates farms. Dates and its by-products have a significant role in GDP, job creation, export, and the creation of various packaging and processing. Moreover, three meta-heuristic algorithms including Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and a hybrid algorithm based on them (WOA–PSO) are adapted to deal with the NP-hardness of the problems. Moreover, the parameters of the proposed algorithms are improved by the Taguchi method, and to achieve more exact measurements, sensitivity analysis is performed. Finally, the numerical results confirmed that the accuracy of the hybrid algorithm was between 1.9 and 2.8%. Therefore, this approach could be practical and efficient for solving large-sized problems. The obtained outcomes demonstrated that the planned model provides tactical considerations for the related managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the occurrence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. unconventional monetary policy affected the Chinese market. Based on a monthly data sample from 2008M1 to 2015M12, in this paper we identify U.S. and Chinese monetary policy shocks by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with multi-external instrumental variables along with principal component analysis (PCA) combined with high-frequency financial market data. The empirical results show that the unconventional monetary policies had a negative effect on China's inflation and output due to the signal effect, and China's stock and commodity markets increased in the short term. During the same period, China's monetary policy had a greater impact on the domestic economy and financial markets. The conclusion of this paper provides a significant reference for relevant departments to make decisions amidst the new wave of unconventional U.S. monetary policies due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to estimate a statistical model of the country risk determination as represented by the country price earnings ratio (PE) to identify potentially mispriced countries. It uses the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and a dummy indicator for market-related events (i.e. financial crises), both approximating the business cycle. The model is used to compare a major Asian country's (i.e. Japan) risk with Western countries' risk. Design/methodology/approach: The model used finance variables such as the systemic, non-diversifiable, risk and foreign direct investments to characterize any country risk. A random effects model with panel data estimated the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on PE. The simultaneity problem was checked using two stage least squares and some lagged independent variables. Findings: The results explained to investors the country risk contributing factors: PE was positively correlated with variables that may increase dividends and market risk premia similar to GDP growth rates and total risk and negatively correlated with variables that increase market risk, namely, nominal risk-free interest rates and financial crises. Japan's PE seemed to exceed most of the Western countries considered here, implying lower risks, lower interest rates and higher growth in the major Asian country Japan. Originality/value: This paper focuses on the effectiveness of country risk measures in predicting periods of intense instability, similar to financial crises. This study contributes a model to measure market risk premium, using PE (or inversely, the earnings yield) as a proxy variable. Investors can use this risk measure in picking less risky stocks to include in their portfolio, calling for liberalizing Asian countries' financial markets to improve their stock market capitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania's GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short-and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aimed to investigate the cyclical dynamics of the business, credit, and investment sectors in India. This was achieved by utilizing annual data from 1980 to 2021 and investigating the impact of domestic and global financial cycles on the business cycle. The cycles were derived using the Hodrick–Prescott filter, and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and Granger causality tests were employed to establish the dynamic interactions among these cycles. The results of the study revealed a clear divergence between domestic and global financial cycles. Additionally, the SVAR analysis confirmed the presence of a long-run relationship between business, investment, and credit cycles. Notably, the findings suggest that credit cycles can provide valuable insights to manage business cycles in India. Finally, robustness checks were conducted to confirm the reliability of SVAR findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the medium and low voltage distribution network, the load form of users is complex and changeable. There are a large number of single-phase and two-phase loads connected to the distribution network, resulting in a three-phase unbalanced operation of the distribution network. With the development of the new energy, the high proportion of distributed new energy will further aggravate the three-phase imbalance of the distribution network. Therefore, this paper proposes a coordinated optimization framework of droop parameters based on the multi-converter droop control, which takes the minimum loss of the distribution network as the optimization objective, and optimizes the reference point and the slope of the VSC droop hierarchically. A small-signal stability optimization dispatching method for the VSC droop slope in the DC distribution network is proposed. By adding small-signal stability constraints to the slope optimization model, the optimal slope command and slope stability region which can ensure the small-signal stable operation of the system are obtained. Experiments show that the optimization model of the VSC small-signal stability slope can make the droop control instruction significantly improve the small-signal stability of the system to adapt to the intra-day source load power fluctuations with a small economic cost. The slope stability region pre-optimization model can provide a reliable stability slope upper limit for the slope optimization problem based on ensuring the system operation economy. The research in this paper can make full use of the flexible control ability of power electronic equipment, and then suppress the three-phase imbalance, which is of great significance to improve the security and economy of the distribution system operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies empirically the macroeconomic and financial effects of Climate Policy Risk (CPR) in Switzerland. To do so, I develop a new CPR index using text analysis techniques on a large dataset of Swiss media articles. The identification of CPR shocks is achieved by using narrative restrictions around events which are likely to have coincided with an increase in the probability of adopting tighter climate policies. I find that CPR shocks are associated with a significant decline in real GDP and a decline in firm-level CO2 emissions. Using firm-level equity price data and rolling linear panel regressions, I document that CPR is increasingly reflected in asset prices. I further find that CO2-intensive firms perform significantly worse than their greener counterparts following events which increased transition risk. The results are in line with recent theoretical contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper showcases an organizational life-cycle analysis of corporate offending behavior in small businesses. It analyzes two small food and hospitality firms in China, drawing on deep ethnographic data collected during three years of fieldwork. The paper investigates these two businesses as they go through three phases: pre-existence, existence, and survival. The study shows that organizational life-course analysis is important for understanding the development and root causes of organizational offending. It finds that offending evolves alongside the development of the organization. It shows that an organizational life-cycle analysis should focus not just on changes in the corporation itself, but also on how the regulatory context changes over the course of the organization's development and maturing. Stages in the business cycle coincide with changes in regulatory encounters, and this shapes how corporations view what regulators expect of them and the extent to which they can violate such expectations. This points to a broader form of life-course analysis. It urges the field to moves beyond an analysis of changes in the business to also study the how such changes coincide with changes in the regulatory frameworks that are supposed to monitor and reduce offending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Unemployment is a huge topic for policymakers, scholars, and, in general, society. Historically, there have always been a lot of discussions about this phenomenon. It is already acknowledged that unemployment is closely related to economic activity: when the economy is growing, more people are employed, and when economic activity is low, employment decreases, and unemployment rises. This relation is well-researched in the framework of Okun's law. However, it is far less known how this relationship holds if international economic relations are introduced. Thus, the motivation for the research was to examine the role of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growthunemployment nexus. Purpose of the article: To assess how trade and FDI affect growth and gender-, age-, and educational attainment level-specific unemployment relationship and on what scale this effect varies over different business cycle phases. Methods: Scientific literature review, comparative analysis, and panel regression. Findings & value added: Given the lack of research examining what effect FDI and trade have on the growth-unemployment nexus, this paper estimates modified Okun's equation on the European Union (EU) countries (EU-28, by the composition of the EU until 31/01/2020) for the period from 2000 to 2019 while incorporating international aspects that can have an impact on this nexus. Also, this study develops a specification that can be useful to monitor the potentially different effects of FDI and trade on the growth-unemployment nexus during different business cycle phases. The estimations of the panel regression for unemployment disaggregated by age, gender and education level has showed that import, export, inward FDI, and outward FDI have a negative effect on the growth-unemployment nexus. It means that with an increase in the intensity of international economic relations, the influence of gross domestic product (GDP) growth on unemployment becomes less significant. Thus, the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy to reduce unemployment becomes less effective in more open economies, which in the case of the EU are the smallest member states with relatively small domestic markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We critically examine the hypothesis that COVID‐19 has ushered in a large reallocation shock in the USA, beyond typical business cycle patterns. We take a broad perspective, and first consider data from the CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector switches, either at the aggregate level or in the cross‐section. The dispersion of sectoral growth rates over the three years before the pandemic was similar to the previous period. The recovery from the initial shock was characterized by very high quits and low layoffs, patterns indicative of a strong labour market, not excessively high reallocation relative to previous business cycles. High growth of small employers in the recovery, and larger ones once the labour market tightened, is also a common cyclical pattern. We then examine whether mismatch unemployment rose as a result of the pandemic; using an off‐the‐shelf multisector search and matching model, there is little evidence for an important role for mismatch in driving the unemployment rate during the pandemic. Finally, we employ a novel Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework with sign restrictions to identify a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labour market patterns in the pandemic, at least relative to earlier episodes. This paper is part of the Economica 100 Series. Economica, the LSE "house journal" is now 100 years old. To commemorate this achievement, we are publishing 100 papers by former students, as well as current and former faculty. Filippos Petroulakis obtained his MSc from the LSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role of credit market sentiment and investor beliefs in credit cycle dynamics and their transmission to businesscycle fluctuations. Using U.S. data from 1968 to 2014, we find that credit market sentiment is indeed able to detect asymmetries in a small‐scale macroeconomic model. An unexpected credit market sentiment shock has different impacts in an optimistic and pessimistic credit market environment. While an unexpected movement in the optimistic regime leads to a rather muted impact on output and credit, we find a significant negative impact on these variables in the pessimistic regime. The findings highlight the relevance of expectation formation mechanisms as a source of macroeconomic instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper comprehensively utilizes the entropy-TOPSIS method, Lyapunov index, and kernel density estimation to measure the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience in 52 African countries (regions) from 2008 to 2019. It also examines the spatial network characteristics of regional economic resilience in each country (region) through gravity models and social network analysis. The findings reveal that: (1) Although the resilience of African regional economies fluctuates, it generally shows an improving trend. Traditional economic powers and regional giants such as Libya, Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia demonstrate outstanding performance in economic resilience. (2) In terms of scale resilience, the countries along the North African Mediterranean coast exhibit particularly prominent advantages. However, the overall performance of Africa in fiscal resilience and openness resilience tends to be weak. Industrial resilience is influenced by colonial legacies and tends to stabilize. (3) The differences in economic resilience values and the fluctuation trajectories of economic resilience levels converge. North African economies exhibit resilience far higher than the mean and other regions, while East, West, and Central Africa consistently perform below the mean in the long term. Southern Africa's gap from the mean is relatively small, leading to a stalemate. The fluctuation amplitude of differences within each region varies. (4) The overall level of resilience in African regional economies has steadily improved, displaying a trend of polarization. There is evident spatial polarization in West Africa, with Southern Africa demonstrating a trend of multipolarity transitioning towards bipolarity. Conversely, North Africa strengthens its features of bipolar differentiation, while East and Central Africa exhibit tendencies towards multipolarity. (5) Despite some fluctuations in the spatial network of regional economic resilience around 2016, connections among African countries have become increasingly tight, gradually forming three major spatial correlation network clusters: the North African Mediterranean coast, the West–Central African Pan-Gulf of Guinea region, and the East–South African Rift Valley region. Nigeria holds a prominent position as a regional core. Zambia, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic have played certain regional core roles at different times. Nigeria and South Africa also demonstrate significant intermediary roles, while Zambia, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso act as bridges in different periods of network connections. Based on the characteristics of spatial correlation networks, African regions gradually form four major cohesive subgroups and eight sub-subgroups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on fiscal policy has identified wealth elasticity of labor supply and agent heterogeneity as the linchpin of shaping different transmission mechanisms for fiscal policy. In this paper, I build these two important edifices on an otherwise canonical business-cycle model to conduct quantitative analyses of various fiscal policies. To underscore the relative importance of agent heterogeneity, I compare results from the model with agent heterogeneity with those from a standard model without agent heterogeneity. I also compare results from changes in wealth elasticity to analyze how the model ingredient delivers different macroeconomic and fiscal dynamics. The main finding reveals that in the context of the model formulated in this paper, the capital tax is the least detrimental to business cycles and fiscal states and the consumption tax is the most appropriate policy tool since it yields positive output and tax-revenue multipliers in the short and long runs. All the results from counterfactual experiments suggest that macroeconomic and fiscal outcomes hinge fundamentally on agent heterogeneity and wealth elasticity. An important value that this paper adds to the literature is to offer results from a comprehensive analysis of all possible fiscal policies by considering both essential forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the understanding of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) markets by examining the response of CDS spreads to macroeconomic factors and exploring extreme value dependence and its relation to economic cycles. The study focuses on four emerging countries in the Asia–Pacific sovereign CDS markets from 2009 to 2023 and utilises a dynamic quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) approach to account for statistical stylized facts. The findings reveal significant relationships between economic growth, inflation, volatility index (VIX), interest rates and real effective exchange rate on CDS spreads, with varying effects across quantiles and countries. Additionally, the study explores the impact of economic expansion and contraction on CDS spreads, highlighting the significant negative effects of the expansion in certain countries and the positive impacts of contraction phases. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in risk management and policy decision-making, emphasizing the need for policies that promote sustainable growth; manage market risks during volatile periods and consider the implications of interest rates, exchange rates and economic phases on financial stability. The empirical model used is evaluated for dynamic stability, and policy implications are discussed in light of the research outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the impact of intra-industry trade on business cycle synchronization within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). ECOWAS region is characterized by limited intracommunity trade and a low level of foreign direct investment. Design/methodology/approach: First, this research uses the two-digit level harmonized system classification to measure intra-industry trade, which is straightforward to interpret and compute, making it suitable for countries with low trade intensity. Second, it uses the system generalized method of moments (system-GMM) to examine the dynamic relationship between variables and address endogeneity concerns. Findings: The results obtained from the system-GMM estimation reveal a positive and significant correlation between intra-industry trade intensity and business cycle synchronization, as well as an inhibiting effect of economic freedom on the relationship between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization. These results highlight the need to implement policies aimed at reducing tariff barriers, improving financial integration and intensifying production. Originality/value: This research analyze the link between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization within the ECOWAS. It also analyze the role of economic freedom on the link between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates how exchange governance and the local market system influence a firm's adaptability to an economic crisis. This paper unveils a nuanced performance disparity by leveraging a rich dataset of manufacturing firms in Spain. While vertically integrated firms exhibit superior performance during periods of stability, they confront more significant setbacks in the aftermath of economic crises. This study demonstrates that the extent of this performance divergence is contingent upon the thickness of the local market system, supporting the hypothesis that vertically integrated firms derive reduced adaptive benefits from agglomeration economies. These findings shed light on the dynamic interrelationship between a firm's vertical scope and geographical context. They underscore the significance of a holistic assessment when determining the optimal approach to exchange governance. This assessment must evaluate the advantages and drawbacks of autonomous versus coordinated adaptation across economic cycles and geographies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an economic life cycle assessment of hydrogen-fueled gas turbine power plant is developed, where hydrogen is produced via electrolysis with electricity generated from renewable resources (green hydrogen). By this way, the continuous green electricity without fluctuation can be generated. With a great potential in solar irradiation, Iran can be a major country for producing green hydrogen. For this purpose, first, we simulate a 100 MW solar PV plant in Fars province and calculate annual electricity generation. Considering capital cost (Capex) and operations and maintenance costs (Opex) of plants including PV, electrolyzer, hydrogen storage and distribution facilities, and gas turbine, we estimate levelized cost of electricity from green H2-fueled gas turbine power plant. Because hydrogen technology has not matured yet, the analysis for both 2021 and 2040 will be conducted. Due to lower marginal production costs, the increase in renewable energy sources decreases electricity wholesale prices. In this paper, we also estimate long-term merit order effect (MOE) of electricity generated by green hydrogen on electricity wholesale price. The results show that in renewable/hydrogen-based forecast for electricity mix of 2040, electricity wholesale price is estimated around 6.38 c$/kWh, nearly 38% less than present wholesale price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly leads to budget and schedule contingencies. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In the literature, a considerable number of papers have tried to determine construction PM challenges, mainly using statistical methods. These methods do not consider the cause-and-effect relationship among variables. To enhance the existing methods, this paper applies social network analysis (SNA) principles in order to rank a group of variables based on cause-and-effect relationships. To demonstrate the proposed idea, a data set is constructed that includes different types of challenges acquired from the literature comprehended with the forward-chaining approach. In total, 49 critical challenges were identified and subsequently categorized into 12 groups. Two questionnaires were designed to assist in ranking the challenges. 108 construction experts and 20 panelists participated in this study, and the acquired data were used to evaluate the proposed SNA-based method. By applying the proposed method to the obtained data, a complex weighted and directed network is constructed and examined by three metrics: weighted in-degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality. The results revealed that poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, and poor decision making are the main challenges that occur in the construction environment. Moreover, it was figured out that considering the cause-and-effect relationship among variables resulted in a highly different ranking of challenges, much closer to the real situation. This model could be used in quantitative-analytical research conducted in the construction project knowledge area in order to obtain more interpretable answers. Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly lead to time and cost overruns. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In this research, comprehensive scientific efforts were made in order to rank the main PMs' challenges in the construction sector, especially in developing countries. For this purpose, cause-and-effect relationships among variables were considered. By using different questionnaires as well as forming different focus groups and interviewing different experts, we found that the main top 10 challenges in the construction sector are: poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, poor decision making, time pressure, rework, stressful atmosphere, design alteration (even after execution), workforce turnover, fluctuation rate and economic instability, and inappropriate and unrealistic scheduling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of Spanish households' indebtedness and financial vulnerability over the course of this century using micro-data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Our results show a growing debt participation of Spanish households and an increase in the stock of outstanding debt of indebted households, a trend that reversed with the end of the Great Recession. Moreover, the percentage of financially vulnerable households according to three indicators grew dramatically until the end of the downward phase of the last economic cycle and showed considerable signs of improvement during the second half of 2010s. These results, nonetheless, call attention to the number of Spanish households being unable to service their debts in the face of an economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global trend of investing in real property portfolios offers diversification, profitability, and a hedge against inflation. However, international investors encounter significant challenges in developing economies like Nigeria. Despite Nigeria's attractiveness due to its large population, rapid urbanization, and growing middle class, factors such as political instability, corruption, economic volatility, limited access to finance, and complex legal and regulatory frameworks inhibit foreign investment. Political instability and insecurity create an unpredictable environment, while corruption and bureaucracy further complicate business operations. Economic dependence on oil and infrastructure deficiencies also poses substantial risks. Addressing these multifaceted challenges is crucial for maximizing the investment potential in Nigeria's real estate market. Literature reveals both the opportunities and barriers for international investors, emphasizing the need for improved regulatory frameworks and infrastructure to attract and sustain foreign investment in Nigeria's real property sector. The study investigates the perceptions of respondents regarding various factors influencing foreign real estate investment in Nigeria, focusing on political instability, legal framework, economic fluctuations, infrastructure inadequacy, and potential improvements. Analysis of survey data, including histograms, ogive curves, and statistical metrics such as mean weight and standard deviation, reveals key insights. A significant proportion of respondents hold negative views on political instability and policy changes with the highest frequencies in Strongly Disagree and Disagree categories. The mean weight of 2.63 and a standard deviation of 1.49 indicate a general tendency towards disagreement with moderate variation. Respondents predominantly disagree that Nigeria's legal framework for property is clear and well-enforced, with a mean weight of 1.93 and a standard deviation of 1.34, reflecting a consensus on perceived regulatory inconsistencies and risks. There is prevalent disagreement that economic conditions and oil dependency positively impact the real estate market. The mean weight is 2.43, with a standard deviation of 1.52, indicating concerns about economic instability affecting investor confidence. The majority strongly agree that inadequate infrastructure is a major barrier to foreign real estate investment, with a mean weight of 4.53 and a standard deviation of 1.75, showing strong consensus on the need for infrastructure improvements. Respondents agree that improving political stability and legal regulations would boost investment, indicated by a mean weight of 3.6 and a standard deviation of 1.41, reflecting moderate agreement. There is strong agreement that diversifying the economy and improving infrastructure would enhance market stability and attractiveness, with a mean weight of 4.08 and a standard deviation of 1.60. The findings highlight significant concerns regarding political, legal, and economic factors, while emphasizing the importance of infrastructure improvements and economic diversification for attracting and sustaining foreign real estate investment in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study extends the concept of granularity from firms to cities, examining how large cities influence national economic dynamics beyond their relative size. By applying Zipf's law, which describes the power law distribution of city sizes, we investigate the interplay between granularity and business cycles. Our aim is to test the granular hypothesis that large cities have a significant impact on the business cycle beyond their relative size. We analyze data from American and Brazilian cities between 2003 and 2019 assessing the granular residuals and their explanatory power. Our findings reveal that in the United States, the granular city size is three metropolitan areas or five counties when redefined. In Brazil, it equates to three municipalities. These results emphasize the substantial role large cities play in national economic fluctuations, suggesting that policy interventions that target infrastructure, education, and innovation in major urban centers could have widespread economic benefits. This paper's contribution to the literature is to highlight a spatial component of granularity not considered so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce the delayed-advanced Kaldorian business cycle model and consider how time-delay and time-advance affect economic fluctuations. Given the asymptotic stability of the original Kaldor model, we first show that an approximated Kaldor model by a Taylor series expansion can accurately describe the dynamics of the delayed Kaldor model. We also confirm that the delay has a destabilizing effect. When time-delay is replaced with time-advance, we have an advanced Kaldor model. Taking the advanced capital stock formulation, we derive the stability conditions and find that the time-advance has a stabilizing effect. Lastly, we examine these opposite-signed effects in a modified delayed-advanced model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global climate change becomes increasingly severe, energy technology innovation has become a key means of coping with the climate crisis and realizing green and low-carbon development. However, existing literature rarely examines the effects of carbon emission reduction policies based on the perspective of energy technology progress for both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term equilibrium. This paper introduces the fossil energy technology sector and the renewable energy technology sector into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and compares the effectiveness of the carbon emission cap policy, the fossil energy technology subsidy policy, and the renewable energy technology subsidy policy under the framework of China's carbon trading market in promoting macroeconomic growth and controlling pollutant emissions. We found that in long-term, the emission reduction effect of the carbon emission cap policy falls short of the other two policies, and subsidizing fossil fuel technologies is more cost-efficient comparatively. The government expenditure shock can all stimulate macroeconomic growth with crowding out of private investment and household consumption, whereas the energy technology research productivity shock leads to a decline in total output and an increase in renewable energy technology demand. In addition, pollutant emissions are pro-cyclical under the impact of total carbon policies and counter-cyclical under the impact of energy technology subsidy policies. This article constructs a multi-technology sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, expanding the research perspective and theoretical framework for evaluating carbon emission reduction policies. At the same time, it proves the importance of the government to implement the phased energy technology subsidy policy while implementing the carbon emission cap policy, which provides important enlightenment for the implementation and adjustment of carbon emission reduction policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins by analyzing the effect of market economic fluctuations on the digital economy's tourism economy. Second, this paper uses a city cluster in the Yangtze River Delta in China as an example, selects the tourism economic data of the region from 2011 to 2021, and forecasts the tourism development potential of the region from 2022 to 2026 using the conventional methods for predicting economic fluctuations. However, conventional models for predicting economic fluctuations, such as ARIMA, have large prediction errors. This paper combines the RBF neural network and exponential smoothing method and compares them to GM(1, 1), ARIMA, and other models. The findings indicate that the tourism economy in this region is spatially distinct and relatively stable. Therefore, the methodology presented in this paper is capable of accurately predicting tourism demand and growth potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The "Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson" model (or KHS, as he called it) was built to analyse the effects of population growth on the economy's trajectory. Several changes were then made. Instead of difference equations and a tight accelerator, as in his 1939 model, Samuelson deployed differential equations and a flexible accelerator to produce a nonlinear limit cycle. Despite Samuelson's strong claims for the analytical contributions of his 1988 paper, it has – in contrast with the 1939 model – received only scant attention by macroeconomists and historians of economics alike. Samuelson's 1988 paper was his last published macroeconomic model, based on his long-established tradition of non-optimising macro-dynamics. Our paper provides a close reading of that article and some analytical results that shed new light on the formal aspects of Samuelson's 1988 model. We also discuss how it historically links up with business cycle models advanced by John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Roy Harrod and Richard Goodwin and examine how far Samuelson's use of the term secular stagnation differs from Larry Summers's recent reconstruction of it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper for the first time calculates the historical regional GDP (rGDP) for an Eastern European country by using the methodology of Frank Geary and Tom Stark [2002. Examining Ireland's post-famine economic growth performance. The Economic Journal, 112(482):919–935]. The estimates cover the period 1925–1935 and are made for the historical Latvian regions Kurzeme, Vidzeme, Zemgale, Latgale, and Riga as well as within the contemporary NUTS3 units. The results are compared with the GDP disparity of the NUTS3 regions of the restored independent Latvia (2001–2016). The main findings are that the sigma divergence remained stable. Direct comparisons of regional growth rates indicate that economically more advanced regions were more sensitive to business cycles than less advanced regions. Hence, sigma divergence seems to prevail in times of high growth and convergence in times of low growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political event-related literature has been growing over the past decades, generating a continuous stream of research and journal publications. This article aims to systematically review the impact of the political events on stock market literature to outline its current state, trends, gaps, and discrepancies. To this end, 111 political events-related articles published in 68 finance, economic and political journals were extracted. The retrieved pieces of literature were thoroughly examined using a comprehensive classification framework that emphasized broadly conceptual, theoretical, and methodological aspects. Finally, building on this literature, the paper proposes an extensive research agenda to help move the political event literature forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work investigates the factors that precipitate a firm's sudden high decline, which is defined as a short-term heavy contraction in firm size, and examines firms' performance in the aftermath of a high-decline (HD) event. The empirical analysis reveals patterns of HD events over the business cycle and across markets, providing insights into the factors that enable firms' resilience in terms of better growth performance after an HD event. Firms that upgrade their production processes and invest in enhancing their human capital show better growth trajectories in the aftermath of an HD event. Plain English Summary: Periods of high decline are times of challenge and opportunity. This paper studies the drivers of a firm's sudden decline episodes and uncovers its strategic choices that boost its resilience to them. A key implication of this study is that process innovation and human capital effectively reduce a firm's risk of HD and improve its fate after such a high decline. Our findings may be particularly relevant for young SMEs, which may benefit from support policies that help them weather such periods of high decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the impact of female labor supply on aggregate labor market dynamics. It discusses the rise in female labor market participation, which has been influenced by factors such as reduced wage gaps, increased accessibility to childcare, and the growing importance of the service sector. The article also examines the lower volatility of female labor supply during recessions and the higher elasticity of female labor supply in response to wage changes. It suggests that the insurance role of female labor supply may contribute to the lower aggregate responsiveness of female labor supply. Additionally, the article discusses the slowdown in female employment recoveries since the 1990s and its implications for jobless recoveries. Overall, understanding female labor supply dynamics is crucial for interpreting broader labor market phenomena. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: The paper aims to analyse the impact of economic and governance factors on remittance inflows to India from the UK, USA and UAE. India is globally recognised as the largest recipient of remittances. Design/methodology/approach: Using a comprehensive time series data set spanning 1996 to 2022, the authors use an innovative non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model approach to examine the influence of economic growth, corruption control and employer availability in the three source countries on remittance inflows to India. Findings: The results indicate that in the UAE, changes in economic growth and corruption control directly affect remittance outflows. However, the presence of employers in the UAE has minimal impact on remittance outflows to India. Regarding the UK, fluctuations in economic growth primarily drive remittance outflows to India. The effect of corruption control and employment opportunities on remittance outflows is marginal. In the USA, economic growth does not notably impact remittance outflows, whereas corruption control and employment opportunities significantly influence the outflows to India. Originality/value: These findings have important implications for policymakers. Analysing macroeconomic factors from key remittance-sending nations offers valuable insights for Indian policymakers and their international counterparts to enhance remittance inflows. The study focuses on three countries that collectively contribute to about 50% of India's remittances, providing a unique contribution compared to the usual country-specific or regional focus in existing literature. Finally, leveraging these findings, NITI Aayog, an organisation dedicated to achieving India's sustainable development goals, can effectively monitor macroeconomic indicators related to significant remittance-sending countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper has two purposes. The first is to argue that aggregate investment may be subject to the following paradox. A rise in investment decided by firms to correct overutilization of their production capacity may generate less capacity than demand — and hence cause a paradoxical rise in overutilization. This will in turn lead to even more investment, and so on — the result being the self-sustained rises in output that characterize economic expansions. The second purpose of the paper is to put forward one reason why the above paradox of investment will lose strength as expansions progress, and may eventually disappear leading to their end. That reason may be summarized as follows. As net investment increases along expansions, the effect of investment on production capacity rises relative to its effect on demand — and, as a result, the rise in utilization slows down. Moreover, as net investment eventually grows to a high level, the effect of investment on capacity may become bigger than its effect on demand. If this happens, utilization will stop rising and start falling, and thus the same may happen with investment and output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]