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The article comments on several research articles contributed to the "Decision Sciences" periodical in 1974 by behavioral scientists who are producing scholarship contributory to effective decision making and implementation. The research articles offer a range of theory, new empirical data and critical review from multiple behavioral disciplines. The article discusses each research paper and examines its key contributions to studies on decision making and decision theory.

The article analyzes economist James Ohlson's paper "Analysis of the Usefulness of Accounting Data for the Portfolio Decision: A Decision-Theory Approach," in order to determine if he's making a model comparison or a model choice. Ohlson's thesis is that he used methods of comparing models, but the author demonstrates the inaccuracies in that thesis. The author tests Ohlson's findings and also considers the portfolio-choice problem and whether the findings are conditional upon the comparison of the forecasting models used.

The topic of behavioral objectives has recently received considerable attention in the academic community. This paper contains a comprehensive overview of issues and explores the relevance of using the behavioral objective framework for teaching quantitative methods (QM) to undergraduate business administration students. Included in the paper are (1) a discussion of the nature and meaning of behavioral objectives, (2) arguments for and against their use, (3) a rationale for their use in a QM course, and (4) a series of examples demonstrating the use of behavioral objectives in a quantitative course. The evidence—consisting of expert opinion from professionals who have successfully used behavioral objectives for teaching quantitative material, the logic of the arguments for behavioral objectives, consideration of arguments against objectives along with rebuttal to these arguments, and the available empirical studies—indicates that behavioral objectives do appear to offer considerable potential for improving QM teaching. The use of behavioral objectives is worthy of thoughtful consideration by QM teachers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses two different forms of identifying restrictions and compares them in a Monte Carlo framework. A similar analysis is performed to illuminate how the identification procedures affect problems of mis-specification. It is found that, using ordinary least squares as the estimating technique, the two types of identification perform much differently and thus they should not be confused. Similar results hold in the mis-specification case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines learning curves with a PERT network to produce a dynamic PERT model. The dynamic model takes cognizance of the fact that many projects are of a repetitive nature and that the network may vary between runs of the project through the addition or deletion of activities attendant to producing variations of a basic model. Thus, on any given run, the activities comprising a network will exhibit varying degrees of repetitiveness. The proposed model treats the estimated completion times of activities comprising the network as a function of (1) the number of times the various activities have been repeated on prior runs of the project, and (2) the learning rate attendant to each activity. Thus, the estimated completion time for a run through the project changes as additional units are produced. A sixteen event PERT network is simulated (using the proposed dynamic model) through twenty runs of a project. The simulation is conducted under three situations; namely, with learning taking place on (1) only noncritical activities, (2) only critical activities, and (3) all activities. In all three cases the results are compared to the static PERT model. The implications of the proposed model for improved decision making are presented in the concluding remarks of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incentive-type fee function (which has supplanted the Cost-PlusFixed-Fee arrangements of a decade ago) provides an excellent medium for achieving "fee flexibility" or, more exactly, for increasing the fee outcome on government contracts. The originators of incentive contracting stumbled unwittingly on a method for negotiating acceptable fee arrangements under conditions of uncertainty, and the primary purpose of this paper is to establish apodictically that incentive contracts (whether single or multiple) can and do provide the contractor with a method for securing a fee arrangement preferable to that obtainable through a CPFF or a FP (Fixed-Price) contract. Furthermore, this characteristic of incentive contracts can be demonstrated through the use of elementary decision theory. The incentive fee structure provides the contractor with a long-needed procedure for optimizing the expected utility of the fee outcome, and an appreciation of this property should be of value to both contractors and procurement officials with the authority for designing new contract fee arrangements. The paper does not investigate procedures for the optimal negotiation of contracts; rather, it identifies a feature of the incentive contract which appears to be the primary basis for its use and popularity. Our thesis is applicable to both single and multiple incentive contracts. For reasons of simplicity, however, the analysis has been largely confined to the former type of fee arrangement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on research which examined the relationship between information structures, decision making, and learning patterns of business enterprises. A set of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in 1968 with the objective of generating empirical evidence as to the relation between information, information value, and decision. The empirical value of timely information was significantly greater than the expected theoretical value calculated according to the principles of information economics. Experts say a major problem in developing a theory of human problem solving is that there are different effects resulting from similar informational input streams due to what can be termed "structural variables" in the mental organization of the decision maker.

The article comments on the study "Analysis of the Usefulness of Accounting Data for the Portfolio Decision: A Decision-Theory Approach," by James Ohlson in order to determine whether accounting information in corporate reports is useful to investors. The author analyzes Ohlson's experiment involving an individual risk-averse investor selecting an optimal portfolio who wants to make forecasts about stock prices, and tests the Bayesian models used. The author points out several weaknesses in Ohlson's theory involving the utility function, prior values of parameters, and the prediction formulas used.

A decision-making orientation to systems design has been suggested to overcome some of the current deficiencies of computer-based information systems. This paper derives several hypotheses from a decision-making framework proposed by Robert Anthony. These hypotheses are tested with empirical data from a sample of twenty major computer-based information systems drawn from seven Bay Area manufacturing firms. The results indicate that present computer-based information systems follow the descriptive aspects of the Anthony framework, but have had little effect on top management. There is little evidence of common guidelines for systems design which are accepted by the different companies. The data also indicate that users have a strong negative reaction to large numbers of computer-produced reports. The implications of the results for systems design are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In hypothesis testing, the level of significance, α, often performs a screening as well as an evaluating function. Results which are not "significant" at some preset value of α are simply not reported. Unfortunately, this value of α is usually arbitrarily set at .05 or .01 and bears no relation to the needs of potential users of the study. This paper suggests an approach to making the selection of α more responsive to these potential applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much discussion and writing about "systems" is often superficial, glib, and of a non-operational nature. This paper presents a cohesive framework for the process of system design which is felt to be of operational value in the design and management of systems. The framework's central tenet is that all systems are made up of entities and the relationships among the attributes of those entities; and that in designing systems, two processes are used, inclusion and structuring. Inclusion is concerned with what entities to include in a system and structuring with how their attributes are to be related. The system design process is directed or driven by a set (system) of criteria. Systems must be viewed with a time dimension: evolution will and should take place, both in the systems themselves and, more importantly, in the criteria that drive the design and evolution of those systems. In this framework, all problem solvers can usefully regard themselves as system designers. Presentation of the framework is followed by examples, discussion of the criteria set, system design tools, and some implications for teachers and practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, decision making based on systematic analysis has been greatly emphasized. Yet, decision analysis is often carried out without analyzing the limitations of certain quantitative techniques. This paper presents the concept, solution method, and application potential of goal programming which eliminates many limitations of conventional linear optimization models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the optimality of making two insurance decisions independently in the expected utility framework, when the two risks under consideration are independent. It is shown that when the disutility function embodies constant risk aversion, independent decision-making is identical to optimal joint decision-making. When the disutility function has strictly decreasing risk aversion, joint decision-making is always not less conservative than independent decision-making, and the opposite holds when the disutility function has strictly increasing risk aversion. Stronger results are obtained for some particular disutility functions. Finally, some implications of these results for empirical research in utility and decision theory are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the application of capital budgeting theory towards the efficient management of public urban renewal investment. Previous studies on the measurement of decision determinants of government investment projects by the author are cited and readdressed with additional consideration into the impact of net present value and internal rate of return calculations. Questions are raised exploring the evaluation of multiple internal rates of return, the use of mathematical programming in scenarios of limited funding, and of integrating risk assessment functions.

The article focuses on the linear programming approach to bank asset management. Common problems faced by banks and other financial institutions are described and the application of analytical techniques to address them are discussed. The complexity and usefulness of the linear programming method utilized by the Bankers Trust Co. is discussed in depth. The results of the study are contrasted with certain criticisms cited, suggesting that operations research is primarily theoretical and has little if any practical management value.

Very little work has been done in developing a systematic and exhaustive set of criteria which can be used for assessing model validity from a managerial standpoint. Most of the other published work in this area focuses on an individual criterion, such as sensitivity analysis. This manuscript offers a set of criteria making that assessment. The following three basic kinds of validity are proposed: (1) technical validity; (2) operational validity; and (3) dynamic validity. Each has a number of subcriteria which are identified and discussed. Some of these criteria are quantifiable, and some are not. Each of the criterion identified is discussed in relatively broad terms, with brief examples. One of the purposes of this paper is to draw attention to an area worthy of further investigation. Perhaps further scrutiny will generate a truly systematic and exhaustive set of criteria. It is also hoped that further attention will lead to clarification of the criteria identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we have discussed some of the factors to consider when making trade-offs. We have provided the description (and a program listing, in the appendix) for an interactive computer program (ICM) for obtaining indifference curves, using an extension of the MacCrimmon/Toda method. Some results have been presented to indicate that the procedure produces preference representations that correspond surprisingly well with subsequent choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distinction between ill-structured and well-structured decision problems is extended in this paper to include the degree of familiarity that a decision maker has with the initial state of the problem, its desired state, and appropriate transformations for resolving the problem. It is shown that problem ill-structuredness may result from inadequate information regarding any of these components and that the nature of problem ill-structuredness has important implications for problem formulation and solution. A decision tree is presented which represents strategies for either reformulating primary problems of each class of ill-structuredness to a more readily solved form, or solving the problem as initially formulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to update an earlier review by two of the authors dealing with the empirical validity of expectancy theory. In the earlier review, 14 studies were discussed and analyzed in light of an integrative model proposed by the authors. In less than two years since the publication of the earlier review the volume of studies dealing with expectancy theory has more than doubled--indicating the great attention given to this theory.

This paper reports the results of an experiment which investigated the effects of various ways of structuring decision problems under uncertainty (viz, matrix, tree, versus word representations) and various forms of feedback (discussion versus nondiscussion of prepared answers conforming to and deviating from the irrelevance of identical outcomes postulate) on consistent choice behavior (i.e., in accordance with this postulate) in the context of Allais and Morlat-type (A & M) problems. The special structure of A & M problems is especially useful for studying such behavior in that it presumably leads to a set of choices that violates this fundamental norm of decision theory. The experiment involved 134 industrial management undergraduates who gambled to improve their grades in a statistics course. The results showed that: (1) structuring such problems as "decision trees" or "decision matrices" had either a detrimental or no beneficial effect respectively on the number of consistent responses; while (2) discussion led to some improvement in consistency over no discussion. The implications of the findings for training in rational decision making are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decision theory approach is used to model the information retrieval decision problem of which documents to retrieve from a library collection in response to a specific user query for information. A thorough discussion of decision theory, including the components of the alternatives, states-of-nature, outcomes, and evaluations-as well as of the optimization process under the cases of certainty, risk, and uncertainty-is presented. Bayesian statistics are also discussed to show how prior information about the various documents via classification analysis can affect the decision process under risk. An example problem is used to illustrate the decision theory approach and to compare the overall performance of the retrieval system under risk with and without the document classification information. Thus, the operations research technique of decision theory is used to model the retrieval decision process, illustrate how important evaluation is, and to demonstrate the value of prior information via document classification analysis. Moreover, the paper presents, in a somewhat tutorial mode, an overall framework for considering the information retrieval decision problem, incorporating the aspects of cost-effectiveness and alternative evaluation, which allows one to better understand the contributions made by many researchers in this crucial area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a relatively new method of quantitative analysis called game theory, applied to a problem in insurance consumption. It is obvious that the development of a rational worry factor will not be an easy task and that it is too early to expect a complete development in this paper. The authors propose that the worry factor be related to the chance the individual is willing to take that the losses during any policy period equal or exceed the premium. There had been enough preparation to make an initial proposal which makes some sense under the assumptions specified earlier.

This paper presents a model for explaining preference among similar alternatives. Preference is hypothesized to be governed by the relative position of the alternatives on specific dimensions (attributes). More specifically, preference is stated to be related to the distance of an alternative from an ideal alternative. A summary of a test of the model is presented. Next, a probabilistic form of the model is obtained assuming that the measured distance is affected both by individual uncertainty and measurement error. For a particular case, the resulting normality of the distribution is demonstrated. This introduction of a random element into the model is seen to be a major advance, although final judgment must await extensive testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the evaluation of credit collection policy alternatives, given the credit granting function. Credit collection policy determines the intensity of collection efforts and the timing for recognition of bad debts. The Markov Process is utilized to estimate dynamic cash flow behavior for available policy alternatives. For this purpose, both transient and steady-state components of cash-flow behavior are considered. Operational guidelines axe outlined with the help of a single example. The strength of the proposed model stems from its a) consistency with the conventional capital budgeting process, b) modest input data requirements, and c) expediency in obtaining results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents research on the problem of selecting a proper surrogate for a forecast error cost criterion in the production smoothing problem. Various forecast models estimated future selected demand process values. Resultant error costs were computed and the coincidence of the selection of a forecast model on the basis of least error cost and the various error measures was noted. The error measures used were the mean absolute deviation, average algebraic error(bias), and the mean squared error. Computations necessary to develop the mathematical form of the error cost criterion are presented in an Appendix. Also presented are the penalty costs of using an error measure as a surrogate for an error cost criterion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key factor in establishing inventory policy for an item is the procurement lead time demand distribution (LTDD). Demand during lead time is a random variable if at least one of the components—length of lead time, order intensity, and order size—is a random variable. This paper discusses the problem of estimating the functional form of the LTDD for various combinations of the component random variables, using the method of generating functions. Since a normal approximation will often be used in practice, expressions are also given for the mean and variance of the LTDD for the various cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Formal education equips the modern decision scientist with an ample bag of mathematical tools. Among these are a wide variety of models, supplemented by techniques for creating new models and augmenting old ones. The purpose of a model, however, is not to serve only as a classroom exercise, but, rather, to represent reality in mathematical terms. Therefore, the performance of a model under real-life conditions determines its success or failure. In this paper, the author examines the characteristics of successful models, concentrating on the potential pitfalls in both the formulation and implementation stages. Finally, the author discusses the implications of his views for business schools, especially in terms of the improvements in course requirements and teaching techniques which are needed to prepare students of quantitative methods for careers as effective decision scientists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central issue in equipment investment analysis is the selection of the best of two or more alternatives. A common procedure is to first assume that for each alternative there is an infinite stream of identical pieces of equipment. The present value of the associated infinite stream of revenues and costs is calculated. Then the alternative having the highest present value (where revenues are positive and costs are negative) is selected. The assumption of the infinite stream, though computationally desirable, is not very palatable to the decision maker. In this paper we show that the above procedure is equivalent to using a criterion which is definitely more appealing. The author has found this "equivalence" result to be helpful in teaching the basic concepts of the present value procedure. Also the result should be of interest to practitioners involved in equipment investment decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a method for systematically including consideration of noneconomic criteria in the decision-making process. It focuses on the Space Applications Program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, but is intended as a general outline applicable to decision problems in both government and business. The methodology involves four stages. First, a Criteria Set is developed by a panel of members with diverse backgrounds. Second, the criteria are made operational by posing a series of carefully worded questions to appropriate experts. Then the responses are scaled according to the degree of refinement considered necessary and appropriate. To allow flexibility and to accommodate differences in the degree of precision considered feasible, a number of sealing methods are identified. These range from a simple positive-negative response checkoff to summation of individually-weighted criteria with interaction among criteria. Finally, projects are selected on the basis of predetermined standards of choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of price determination and revision is considered as a case of decision making under uncertainty in which profit is to be maximized. Typically price is a simple function of cost which in turn determines the quantity which will be demanded. This paper proposes that maximum profits could be realized in the long run, if a quantity corresponding to the lowest cost per unit of product under the attendant circumstances was fixed and a price established at which demand would exactly equal the fixed quantity. It further suggests a theoretical approach to the determination of this price based on decision theory. The decision theoretic approach considers the set of possible price levels at which demand will equal the fixed quantity of product as the state nature. The set of acts consist of the establishment of the product price at each of the possible levels. After an initial price is established, empirical information can then be utilized according to some optimal decision rule for subsequent price revisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a framework for analyzing the ingredients involved in the economic evaluation of computer based management information systems (MIS). The approach presented revolves around viewing the development of MIS configurations as a series of economic decisions. These decisions are categorized into analysis decisions — what information should the MIS provide to management — and design decisions — what technology should the MIS employ to provide this information. Using this decision dichotomy, the types and sources of benefits and costs can be more accurately identified and evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper provides a proof of the existence of a utility function and the converse of that theorem using decision theory. In particular the development uses probability mass functions. The authors believe that this approach provides a useful alternative to existing proofs and, in addition, ties the analysis to well-understood concepts in probability theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This note comments on the article by R. J. Paul and R. E. Stevens, which presents an application of waiting line concepts in staffing service activities. A retail department store is used as an illustration. Paul and Stevens neglected to point out that a retail store opening and closing each day introduces transients in systems behavior that are very difficult to assess analytically. "Rule-5" in the Paul-Stevens paper presents a situation that is not part of the theoretical queuing model and cannot readily be studied by analytical methods. Also, footnote 1 neglects to point out that pure random variation, programming conventions, the uniform variate generator, initial transient behavior of the run, and numerical error can also explain difference between simulated and theoretical results.

This article comments on the paper by Robert E. Kohn and Donald E. Burlingame titled "Air Quality Control Model Combining Data on Morbidity and Pollution Abatement". Kohn and Burlingame take correlation coefficients relating length of hospital stay to individual pollutant concentrations and convert them into linear regression coefficients. These are used as weights in a benefit/effectiveness model in which optimal air quality concentrations are determined. In making the transition to relative morbidity weights, arithmetic correlation coefficients were divided by sample standard geometric deviations of the pollutant concentrations. A proposed correction to the arithmetic model by Kohn and Burlingame is given. In is still necessary to conduct further research on the development of applicable cost and damage functions relative to air pollution control.

The preliminary test estimator lot predictor) is studied in the context of linear normal regression models. The estimator (or predictor) obtained after the preliminary test is known to be inadmissible with respect to squared error loss under certain assumptions. Nevertheless, it is still widely used in practical application of regression analysis, particularly in econometrics. The object of the present paper is to tabulate the optimal significance points in the preliminary test for practical use. The optimality is based on the minimax regret principle. It is shown that if, as is usual, we take the significance point equal to the 5 per cent point or 10 per cent point, the risk is extremely large for some parameter value. The optimal significance point of the preliminary t test decreases slightly as the degrees of freedom increase, but it is nearly constant; i.e., it lies between 1.370 to 1.380 if d.f. is greater than 6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some new directions for research on group effectiveness are proposed. These include: (a) explicit recognition of group interaction process as the moderator of input-output relationships in groups; (b) research which focuses on the functions of group interaction in influencing group performance; and (c) use of experimental interventions which create new, non-typical patterns of interpersonal behavior in groups as an approach to studying group effectiveness. The results of two studies based on these proposals are summarized. One study examines the effectiveness of implicit vs. explicit discussion of group task "strategies"; the other addresses the effects of implicit ("traditional") vs. explicit ("adaptive") approaches to the maintenance of internal social relationships in work groups. Implications of the research are drawn both for future research on group effectiveness, and for the design of interventions aimed at improving the performance of on-going groups in organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines decision theory with incomplete knowledge. Several approaches for solving decision problems with complete information are discussed, as well as the lack of methods incorporating incomplete information. The authors present a method for estimating the maximum and minimum expected payoffs under conditions of incomplete information. The method utilizes the ranked probabilities of possible outcomes and past experience to provide the decision-maker with a number of possible probability distributions to choose from.

The von Neumann-Morgenstern theory of games does not yield determinate solutions (corresponding to unique payoff vectors) for two-person variable-sum games and for n-person games. The present paper outlines a general theory of rational behavior in game situations which does yield determinate solutions for all classes of games. The theory is based on two classes of rationality postulates: those defining rational behavior as such, and those defining rational expectations concerning the other players' behavior. It is argued that this new approach greatly increases the possibilities for the application of game theory in economics and the other social sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To judge by the frequency with which the term ‘decision’ is employed, it is a useful one. In domestic life, we talk of deciding what clothes to put on in the morning, or whether to buy a new car. We talk of commercial organizations making decisions — to shut down a factory, or to introduce a new product. We talk of the Government's decision to raise the standard rate of income tax, or of a local authority's decision to install a parking meter scheme. Used in this way, the concept of ‘decision’ is evidently a trivial one: a decision is merely something which comes before an action. So limited a concept does not do justice to the complexity of the processes by which governments and organizations make decisions. It does not, for example, afford us any means of describing what goes on during the often lengthy period separating the first awareness of a need for a decision and the decision itself, and the further lengthy period separating decision and action. If we are to understand how decisions are made, and how actions come about, we need to develop a model of the decision-making process, with concepts and a language which will enable us to describe the relationship between ‘first awareness of need’ and decision, and between decision and action. The purpose of this paper is to develop such a model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the role of management structure in determining levels of organizational performance. Problems faced by managers are looked at, including how to divide tasks among people, what procedures to employ, what paperwork to use, and where to locate decision-making. The author examines theory from the classical school of management, rejecting much of it for having little practical application. The dangers of stereotypes are discussed, noting that they are typically created for analytical convenience. A manager's choice of management structures is a complex one based on several factors within their operating system.

The article uses the ON and OFF states in electrical circuitry to illustrate the interconnection of controllers in an administrative system. The authoritative roles of two types--controllers in series and controllers in parallel--are defined by an electrical system's four gates. The AND gate, OR gate,and AND/OR gate, which represent controllers in series, controllers in parallel, and conjoint controllers, show how linkages between controllers affect output. The NOT gate represents management by exception where a controller is in a state of passivity until action is needed. The logic of circuit theory, sequential and time-independent gates, and hierarchical control in decision making are mentioned.

This article presents a discussion on the measurement of fund performance. The author suggests that a statistical decision theory approach can be applied in order to a make pragmatic judgment on the performance of funds. The author discusses the two leading arguments on the measurement of fund performance and assets that measures that include risk are unnecessary because uncertainty does no exist in past events. The author's argument centers on the idea that a single method cannot account for all the necessary characteristics for measuring a rate of return.

The article reports on a study which measured and compared the effects of budget adaptiveness and tightness on managerial decision behavior. Budget adaptiveness in this context refers to the extent to which differences between expected and actual environmental observations for a period are reflected in that period's budget. The results of this study showed no statistically significant differences in decision adaptiveness between groups differentiated according to either budget adaptiveness or budget tightness.

Question analysis and search strategy development, two major components in the process of answering reference questions, were characterized as nine decision making steps. Twenty-eight reference questions were analyzed in terms of these nine steps. The answers to each step were examined to determine whether rules for performing the individual steps by machine could be developed. Reasons are given for concluding that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to have these reference process steps performed by machine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The specific structural differences among the dimensions of structure between routine and non-routine decisions are examined. Decision making is broadly defined to include the gathering and processing of information carried out by groups of individuals that precedes the actual choice process. An organizational decision unit is defined as a formally specified work group within the organization under a superior charged with a formally defined set of responsibilities directed toward the attainment of company goals. A brief model of organizational learning is presented.

In Part I, several problems confronting learning and teaching in Decision Sciences are examined and possible solutions presented. Students dislike and fear mathematics, treat it as a foreign language (a dead one at that), and are subjected to archaic teaching methods. Teachers suffer from poor training, incongruent goals, and inadequate models. As the popularity of the Decision Sciences dwindles, teaching becomes even more critical in our profession. In Part II, three designs for teaching operations research or statistics with organizational behavior are presented. These have all been implemented during the last three years. These designs attempt to take advantage of principles learned in organizational behavior to enhance the learning situation in the quantitative courses in decision sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the key role that subjective probabilities play in decisions made under conditions of uncertainty, little is known about the ability of probability assessors in developing these estimates. A literature survey is followed by a review of results from a continuing series of experiments designed to investigate the external accuracy of subjectively assessed probability distributions. Initial findings confirm that probability assessments provided by untrained assessors are of questionable value in predicting the distribution of actual outcomes of uncertain events. Particular difficulty is encountered when subjects attempt to quantify the extremes of their subjective distributions. The impact of extended assessor training and hypotheses regarding the effects of variation in the assessor's information level and the complexity of the assessment task are explored. Implications for applied decision making are drawn, and directions for future investigations are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expectancy theory has evolved as a basic paradigm for the analysis of behavior and attitudes in the industrial work culture. The theoretical development of expectancy models has been greatly influenced by the earlier work of Lewin, Edwards, Rotter, Atkinson and Tolman. However, their application in organizational contexts is recent and the exact form of the expectancy models described by various writers has varied considerably.

In many situations where normative decision-aiding techniques could be usefully applied, historical data are inadequate for estimating the required outcome probabilities, and economic methodologies are inadequate for estimating the aggregate utility derived from the several outcome attributes. In such cases it is often useful to obtain the required estimates in the form of expert judgments, i.e. to obtain subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities. Similarly, in many situations where behavioral decision processes are to be studied, it is necessary to scale the expectations and perceived values of the decision makers. This article describes the methods for eliciting subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities whose usefulness has been empirically studied and reported in the research literature. It also contains summary guidelines concerning the elicitation and use of such judgments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This note responds to the comment of Marvin Rothstein on the article by the authors regarding a waiting line simulation model for staffing service activities. Much of the difference between the approaches appears to be a matter of degree. The mathematical approach is more general, instructive, economical and less subject to anomalous conclusions but it too is a model which is based on most the same assumptions as the simulation model. The technique does, however, have its advantages. Each approach must be applied to problem situations where its specific strengths can be utilized to best advantage. It is not a case of which is correct and which is incorrect but rather a case of which approach is best suited to a specific problem situation.