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Estimating the probability density of a population while preserving the privacy of individuals in that population is an important and challenging problem that has received considerable attention in recent years. While the previous literature focused on frequentist approaches, in this paper, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model under differential privacy (DP) and present two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for posterior inference. One is a marginal approach, resembling Neal's algorithm 5 with a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings move, and the other is a conditional approach. Although our focus is primarily on local DP, we show that our MCMC algorithms can be easily extended to deal with global differential privacy mechanisms. Moreover, for some carefully chosen mechanisms and mixture kernels, we show how auxiliary parameters can be analytically marginalized, allowing standard MCMC algorithms (i.e., non-privatized, such as Neal's Algorithm 2) to be efficiently employed. Our approach is general and applicable to any mixture model and privacy mechanism. In several simulations and a real case study, we discuss the performance of our algorithms and evaluate different privacy mechanisms proposed in the frequentist literature.

This work focuses on clustering populations with a hierarchical dependency structure that can be described by a tree. A particular example that is the focus of our work is the phylogenetic tree, with nodes often representing biological species. Clustering of the populations in this problem is equivalent to identify branches in the tree where the populations at the parent and child node have significantly different distributions. We construct a nonparametric Bayesian model based on hierarchical Pitman-Yor and Poisson processes to exploit this hierarchical structure, with a key contribution being the ability to share statistical information between subpopulations. We develop an efficient particle MCMC algorithm to address computational challenges involved with posterior inference. We illustrate the efficacy of our proposed approach on both synthetic and real-world problems., Comment: 41 pages, 9 figures

In this work, we study a natural nonparametric estimator of the transition probability matrices of a finite controlled Markov chain. We consider an offline setting with a fixed dataset, collected using a so-called logging policy. We develop sample complexity bounds for the estimator and establish conditions for minimaxity. Our statistical bounds depend on the logging policy through its mixing properties. We show that achieving a particular statistical risk bound involves a subtle and interesting trade-off between the strength of the mixing properties and the number of samples. We demonstrate the validity of our results under various examples, such as ergodic Markov chains, weakly ergodic inhomogeneous Markov chains, and controlled Markov chains with non-stationary Markov, episodic, and greedy controls. Lastly, we use these sample complexity bounds to establish concomitant ones for offline evaluation of stationary Markov control policies., Comment: 71 pages, 23 main

Mixture models are a standard tool in statistical analysis, widely used for density modeling and model-based clustering. Current approaches typically model the parameters of the mixture components as independent variables. This can result in overlapping or poorly separated clusters when either the number of clusters or the form of the mixture components is misspecified. Such model misspecification can undermine the interpretability and simplicity of these mixture models. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian mixture model with repulsion between mixture components. The repulsion is induced by a generalized Mat\'ern type-III repulsive point process model, obtained through a dependent sequential thinning scheme on a primary Poisson point process. We derive a novel and efficient Gibbs sampler for posterior inference, and demonstrate the utility of the proposed method on a number of synthetic and real-world problems.

Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components, that is not part of, or even compatible with, the nonparametric prior. An important challenge is then to incorporate this partial prior belief into nonparametric Bayesian models. In this paper, we are motivated by settings where practitioners have additional distributional information about a subset of the coordinates of the observations being modeled. Our approach links this problem to that of conditional density modeling. Our main idea is a novel constrained Bayesian model, based on a perturbation of a parametric distribution with a transformed Gaussian process prior on the perturbation function. We also develop a corresponding posterior sampling method based on data augmentation. We illustrate the efficacy of our proposed constrained nonparametric Bayesian model in a variety of real-world scenarios including modeling environmental and earthquake data.

Differentially private mechanisms protect privacy by introducing additional randomness into the data. Restricting access to only the privatized data makes it challenging to perform valid statistical inference on parameters underlying the confidential data. Specifically, the likelihood function of the privatized data requires integrating over the large space of confidential databases and is typically intractable. For Bayesian analysis, this results in a posterior distribution that is doubly intractable, rendering traditional MCMC techniques inapplicable. We propose an MCMC framework to perform Bayesian inference from the privatized data, which is applicable to a wide range of statistical models and privacy mechanisms. Our MCMC algorithm augments the model parameters with the unobserved confidential data, and alternately updates each one conditional on the other. For the potentially challenging step of updating the confidential data, we propose a generic approach that exploits the privacy guarantee of the mechanism to ensure efficiency. We give results on the computational complexity, acceptance rate, and mixing properties of our MCMC. We illustrate the efficacy and applicability of our methods on a na\"ive-Bayes log-linear model as well as on a linear regression model., Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. NeurIPS 2022

Node classification is a central task in relational learning, with the current state-of-the-art hinging on two key principles: (i) predictions are permutation-invariant to the ordering of a node's neighbors, and (ii) predictions are a function of the node's $r$-hop neighborhood topology and attributes, $r \geq 2$. Both graph neural networks and collective inference methods (e.g., belief propagation) rely on information from up to $r$-hops away. In this work, we study if the use of more powerful permutation-invariant functions can sometimes avoid the need for classifiers to collect information beyond $1$-hop. Towards this, we introduce a new architecture, the Set Twister, which generalizes DeepSets (Zaheer et al., 2017), a simple and widely-used permutation-invariant representation. Set Twister theoretically increases expressiveness of DeepSets, allowing it to capture higher-order dependencies, while keeping its simplicity and low computational cost. Empirically, we see accuracy improvements of Set Twister over DeepSets as well as a variety of graph neural networks and collective inference schemes in several tasks, while showcasing its implementation simplicity and computational efficiency., Comment: Accepted for presentation at the 2nd GCLR workshop in conjunction with AAAI 2022

This work proposes an unsupervised learning framework for trajectory (sequence) outlier detection that combines ranking tests with user sequence models. The overall framework identifies sequence outliers at a desired false positive rate (FPR), in an otherwise parameter-free manner. We evaluate our methodology on a collection of real and simulated datasets based on user actions at the websites last.fm and msnbc.com, where we know ground truth, and demonstrate improved accuracy over existing approaches. We also apply our approach to a large real-world dataset of Pinterest and Facebook users, where we find that users tend to re-share Pinterest posts of Facebook friends significantly more than other types of users, pointing to a potential influence of Facebook friendship on sharing behavior on Pinterest., Comment: 11 pages

Differential privacy (DP) offers strong theoretical privacy guarantees, but implementations of DP mechanisms may be vulnerable to side-channel attacks, such as timing attacks. When sampling methods such as MCMC or rejection sampling are used to implement a mechanism, the runtime can leak private information. We characterize the additional privacy cost due to the runtime of a rejection sampler in terms of both $(\epsilon,\delta)$-DP as well as $f$-DP. We also show that unless the acceptance probability is constant across databases, the runtime of a rejection sampler does not satisfy $\epsilon$-DP for any $\epsilon$. We show that there is a similar breakdown in privacy with adaptive rejection samplers. We propose three modifications to the rejection sampling algorithm, with varying assumptions, to protect against timing attacks by making the runtime independent of the data. The modification with the weakest assumptions is an approximate sampler, introducing a small increase in the privacy cost, whereas the other modifications give perfect samplers. We also use our techniques to develop an adaptive rejection sampler for log-H\"{o}lder densities, which also has data-independent runtime. We give several examples of DP mechanisms that fit the assumptions of our methods and can thus be implemented using our samplers., Comment: 25 pages + references, 4 figures

This paper considers data-driven chance-constrained stochastic optimization problems in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian posteriors afford a principled mechanism to incorporate data and prior knowledge into stochastic optimization problems. However, the computation of Bayesian posteriors is typically an intractable problem, and has spawned a large literature on approximate Bayesian computation. Here, in the context of chance-constrained optimization, we focus on the question of statistical consistency (in an appropriate sense) of the optimal value, computed using an approximate posterior distribution. To this end, we rigorously prove a frequentist consistency result demonstrating the convergence of the optimal value to the optimal value of a fixed, parameterized constrained optimization problem. We augment this by also establishing a probabilistic rate of convergence of the optimal value. We also prove the convex feasibility of the approximate Bayesian stochastic optimization problem. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our approach on an optimal staffing problem for an M/M/c queueing model.

Datasets displaying temporal dependencies abound in science and engineering applications, with Markov models representing a simplified and popular view of the temporal dependence structure. In this paper, we consider Bayesian settings that place prior distributions over the parameters of the transition kernel of a Markov model, and seeks to characterize the resulting, typically intractable, posterior distributions. We present a PAC-Bayesian analysis of variational Bayes (VB) approximations to tempered Bayesian posterior distributions, bounding the model risk of the VB approximations. Tempered posteriors are known to be robust to model misspecification, and their variational approximations do not suffer the usual problems of over confident approximations. Our results tie the risk bounds to the mixing and ergodic properties of the Markov data generating model. We illustrate the PAC-Bayes bounds through a number of example Markov models, and also consider the situation where the Markov model is misspecified., Comment: 14 pages main, 24 pages appendix and citations

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In addition, for the problem to be a well-defined convex program, we must retain the convexity of the feasible set. Consequently, we propose a variational Bayes-based method to approximately compute the posterior predictive integral that ensures tractability and retains the convexity of the feasible set. Under certain regularity conditions, we also show that the solution set obtained using variational Bayes converges to the true solution set as the number of observations tends to infinity. We also provide bounds on the probability of qualifying a true infeasible point (with respect to the true constraints) as feasible under the VB approximation for a given number of samples.

This paper establishes the asymptotic consistency of the {\it loss-calibrated variational Bayes} (LCVB) method. LCVB was proposed in~\cite{LaSiGh2011} as a method for approximately computing Bayesian posteriors in a `loss aware' manner. This methodology is also highly relevant in general data-driven decision-making contexts. Here, we not only establish the asymptotic consistency of the calibrated approximate posterior, but also the asymptotic consistency of decision rules. We also establish the asymptotic consistency of decision rules obtained from a `naive' variational Bayesian procedure.

Clustering and community detection with multiple graphs have typically focused on aligned graphs, where there is a mapping between nodes across the graphs (e.g., multi-view, multi-layer, temporal graphs). However, there are numerous application areas with multiple graphs that are only partially aligned, or even unaligned. These graphs are often drawn from the same population, with communities of potentially different sizes that exhibit similar structure. In this paper, we develop a joint stochastic blockmodel (Joint SBM) to estimate shared communities across sets of heterogeneous non-aligned graphs. We derive an efficient spectral clustering approach to learn the parameters of the joint SBM. We evaluate the model on both synthetic and real-world datasets and show that the joint model is able to exploit cross-graph information to better estimate the communities compared to learning separate SBMs on each individual graph.

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or diffusions are continuous-valued continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in the applied and mathematical sciences. Simulating paths from these processes is usually an intractable problem, and typically involves time-discretization approximations. We propose an exact Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm that involves no such time-discretization error. Our sampler is applicable to the problem of prior simulation from an SDE, posterior simulation conditioned on noisy observations, as well as parameter inference given noisy observations. Our work recasts an existing rejection sampling algorithm for a class of diffusions as a latent variable model, and then derives an auxiliary variable Gibbs sampling algorithm that targets the associated joint distribution. At a high level, the resulting algorithm involves two steps: simulating a random grid of times from an inhomogeneous Poisson process, and updating the SDE trajectory conditioned on this grid. Our work allows the vast literature of Monte Carlo sampling algorithms from the Gaussian process literature to be brought to bear to applications involving diffusions. We study our method on synthetic and real datasets, where we demonstrate superior performance over competing methods., Comment: 37 pages, 13 figures

We study data-driven decision-making problems in the Bayesian framework, where the expectation in the Bayes risk is replaced by a risk-sensitive entropic risk measure. We focus on problems where calculating the posterior distribution is intractable, a typical situation in modern applications with large datasets and complex data generating models. We leverage a dual representation of the entropic risk measure to introduce a novel risk-sensitive variational Bayesian (RSVB) framework for jointly computing a risk-sensitive posterior approximation and the corresponding decision rule. The proposed RSVB framework can be used to extract computational methods for doing risk-sensitive approximate Bayesian inference. We show that our general framework includes two well-known computational methods for doing approximate Bayesian inference viz. naive VB and loss-calibrated VB. We also study the impact of these computational approximations on the predictive performance of the inferred decision rules and values. We compute the convergence rates of the RSVB approximate posterior and also of the corresponding optimal value and decision rules. We illustrate our theoretical findings in both parametric and nonparametric settings with the help of three examples: the single and multi-product newsvendor model and Gaussian process classification.

This work generalizes graph neural networks (GNNs) beyond those based on the Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) algorithm, graph Laplacians, and diffusions. Our approach, denoted Relational Pooling (RP), draws from the theory of finite partial exchangeability to provide a framework with maximal representation power for graphs. RP can work with existing graph representation models and, somewhat counterintuitively, can make them even more powerful than the original WL isomorphism test. Additionally, RP allows architectures like Recurrent Neural Networks and Convolutional Neural Networks to be used in a theoretically sound approach for graph classification. We demonstrate improved performance of RP-based graph representations over state-of-the-art methods on a number of tasks., Comment: ICML 2019 Camera-Ready. Added to molecular experiments and balanced the classes of the validation folds for the synthetic-graph experiments. Clarified some discussions

We study the asymptotic consistency properties of $\alpha$-R\'enyi approximate posteriors, a class of variational Bayesian methods that approximate an intractable Bayesian posterior with a member of a tractable family of distributions, the member chosen to minimize the $\alpha$-R\'enyi divergence from the true posterior. Unique to our work is that we consider settings with $\alpha > 1$, resulting in approximations that upperbound the log-likelihood, and consequently have wider spread than traditional variational approaches that minimize the Kullback-Liebler (KL) divergence from the posterior. Our primary result identifies sufficient conditions under which consistency holds, centering around the existence of a 'good' sequence of distributions in the approximating family that possesses, among other properties, the right rate of convergence to a limit distribution. We further characterize the good sequence by demonstrating that a sequence of distributions that converges too quickly cannot be a good sequence. We also extend our analysis to the setting where $\alpha$ equals one, corresponding to the minimizer of the reverse KL divergence, and to models with local latent variables. We also illustrate the existence of good sequence with a number of examples. Our results complement a growing body of work focused on the frequentist properties of variational Bayesian methods.

We consider a simple and overarching representation for permutation-invariant functions of sequences (or multiset functions). Our approach, which we call Janossy pooling, expresses a permutation-invariant function as the average of a permutation-sensitive function applied to all reorderings of the input sequence. This allows us to leverage the rich and mature literature on permutation-sensitive functions to construct novel and flexible permutation-invariant functions. If carried out naively, Janossy pooling can be computationally prohibitive. To allow computational tractability, we consider three kinds of approximations: canonical orderings of sequences, functions with $k$-order interactions, and stochastic optimization algorithms with random permutations. Our framework unifies a variety of existing work in the literature, and suggests possible modeling and algorithmic extensions. We explore a few in our experiments, which demonstrate improved performance over current state-of-the-art methods., Comment: This version clarifies and adds detail to some of the arguments

This paper addresses challenges in flexibly modeling multimodal data that lie on constrained spaces. Such data are commonly found in spatial applications, such as climatology and criminology, where measurements are restricted to a geographical area. Other settings include domains where unsuitable recordings are discarded, such as flow-cytometry measurements. A simple approach to modeling such data is through the use of mixture models, especially nonparametric mixture models. Mixture models, while flexible and theoretically well-understood, are unsuitable for settings involving complicated constraints, leading to difficulties in specifying the component distributions and in evaluating normalization constants. Bayesian inference over the parameters of these models results in posterior distributions that are doubly-intractable. We address this problem via an algorithm based on rejection sampling and data augmentation. We view samples from a truncated distribution as outcomes of a rejection sampling scheme, where proposals are made from a simple mixture model and are rejected if they violate the constraints. Our scheme proceeds by imputing the rejected samples given mixture parameters and then resampling parameters given all samples. We study two modeling approaches: mixtures of truncated Gaussians and truncated mixtures of Gaussians, along with their associated Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. We also discuss variations of the models, as well as approximations to improve mixing, reduce computational cost, and lower variance. We present results on simulated data and apply our algorithms to two problems; one involving flow-cytometry data, and the other, crime recorded in the city of Chicago., Comment: 15 pages

In this work, we consider hypothesis testing and anomaly detection on datasets where each observation is a weighted network. Examples of such data include brain connectivity networks from fMRI flow data, or word co-occurrence counts for populations of individuals. Current approaches to hypothesis testing for weighted networks typically requires thresholding the edge-weights, to transform the data to binary networks. This results in a loss of information, and outcomes are sensitivity to choice of threshold levels. Our work avoids this, and we consider weighted-graph observations in two situations, 1) where each graph belongs to one of two populations, and 2) where entities belong to one of two populations, with each entity possessing multiple graphs (indexed e.g. by time). Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian hypothesis testing framework that models each population with a mixture of latent space models for weighted networks, and then tests populations of networks for differences in distribution over components. Our framework is capable of population-level, entity-specific, as well as edge-specific hypothesis testing. We apply it to synthetic data and three real-world datasets: two social media datasets involving word co-occurrences from discussions on Twitter of the political unrest in Brazil, and on Instagram concerning Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and depression drugs, and one medical dataset involving fMRI brain-scans of human subjects. The results show that our proposed method has lower Type I error and higher statistical power compared to alternatives that need to threshold the edge weights. Moreover, they show our proposed method is better suited to deal with highly heterogeneous datasets.

We propose a novel two-phase approach to functional network estimation of multi-subject functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data, which applies model-based image segmentation to determine a group-representative connectivity map. In our approach, we first improve clustering-based Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to generate maps of components occurring consistently across subjects, and then estimate the group-representative map through MAP-MRF (Maximum a priori - Markov random field) labeling. For the latter, we provide a novel and efficient variational Bayes algorithm. We study the performance of the proposed method using synthesized data following a theoretical model, and demonstrate its viability in blind extraction of group-representative functional networks using simulated fMRI data. We anticipate the proposed method will be applied in identifying common neuronal characteristics in a population, and could be further extended to real-world clinical diagnosis.

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based auxiliary variable Gibbs sampler. This was designed for situations where the MJP parameters are known, and Bayesian inference over unknown parameters is typically carried out by incorporating it into a larger Gibbs sampler. This strategy of sampling parameters given path, and path given parameters can result in poor Markov chain mixing. In this work, we propose a simple and elegant algorithm to address this problem. Our scheme brings Metropolis-Hastings approaches for discrete-time hidden Markov models to the continuous-time setting, resulting in a complete and clean recipe for parameter and path inference in MJPs. In our experiments, we demonstrate superior performance over Gibbs sampling, as well as another popular approach, particle MCMC. We also show our sampler inherits geometric mixing from an `ideal' sampler that operates without computational constraints., Comment: 42 pages, 17 Figures

We present a data augmentation scheme to perform Markov chain Monte Carlo inference for models where data generation involves a rejection sampling algorithm. Our idea, which seems to be missing in the literature, is a simple scheme to instantiate the rejected proposals preceding each data point. The resulting joint probability over observed and rejected variables can be much simpler than the marginal distribution over the observed variables, which often involves intractable integrals. We consider three problems, the first being the modeling of flow-cytometry measurements subject to truncation. The second is a Bayesian analysis of the matrix Langevin distribution on the Stiefel manifold, and the third, Bayesian inference for a nonparametric Gaussian process density model. The latter two are instances of problems where Markov chain Monte Carlo inference is doubly-intractable. Our experiments demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art sampling algorithms for such problems., Comment: 6 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1311.0907

A new shrinkage-based construction is developed for a compressible vector $\boldsymbol{x}\in\mathbb{R}^n$, for cases in which the components of $\xv$ are naturally associated with a tree structure. Important examples are when $\xv$ corresponds to the coefficients of a wavelet or block-DCT representation of data. The method we consider in detail, and for which numerical results are presented, is based on increments of a gamma process. However, we demonstrate that the general framework is appropriate for many other types of shrinkage priors, all within the L\'{e}vy process family, with the gamma process a special case. Bayesian inference is carried out by approximating the posterior with samples from an MCMC algorithm, as well as by constructing a heuristic variational approximation to the posterior. We also consider expectation-maximization (EM) for a MAP (point) solution. State-of-the-art results are manifested for compressive sensing and denoising applications, the latter with spiky (non-Gaussian) noise., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

The Stiefel manifold $V_{p,d}$ is the space of all $d \times p$ orthonormal matrices, with the $d-1$ hypersphere and the space of all orthogonal matrices constituting special cases. In modeling data lying on the Stiefel manifold, parametric distributions such as the matrix Langevin distribution are often used; however, model misspecification is a concern and it is desirable to have nonparametric alternatives. Current nonparametric methods are Fr\'echet mean based. We take a fully generative nonparametric approach, which relies on mixing parametric kernels such as the matrix Langevin. The proposed kernel mixtures can approximate a large class of distributions on the Stiefel manifold, and we develop theory showing posterior consistency. While there exists work developing general posterior consistency results, extending these results to this particular manifold requires substantial new theory. Posterior inference is illustrated on a real-world dataset of near-Earth objects., Comment: Split the original paper into two paper, with details of computation included in arXiv:1406.6652

In many applications involving point pattern data, the Poisson process assumption is unrealistic, with the data exhibiting a more regular spread. Such a repulsion between events is exhibited by trees for example, because of competition for light and nutrients. Other examples include the locations of biological cells and cities, and the times of neuronal spikes. Given the many applications of repulsive point processes, there is a surprisingly limited literature developing flexible, realistic and interpretable models, as well as efficient inferential methods. We address this gap by developing a modelling framework around the Mat\'ern type-III repulsive process. We consider a number of extensions of the original Mat\'ern type-III process for both the homogeneous and inhomogeneous cases. We also derive the probability density of this generalized Mat\'ern process. This allows us to characterize the posterior distribution of the various latent variables, and leads to a novel and efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We apply our ideas to datasets involving the spatial locations of trees, nerve fiber cells and Greyhound bus stations.

Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models, given partial and noisy observations. Our approach is an auxiliary variable Gibbs sampler, and is based on the idea of uniformization. This sets up a Markov chain over paths by alternately sampling a finite set of virtual jump times given the current path and then sampling a new path given the set of extant and virtual jump times using a standard hidden Markov model forward filtering-backward sampling algorithm. Our method is exact and does not involve approximations like time-discretization. We demonstrate how our sampler extends naturally to MJP-based models like Markov-modulated Poisson processes and continuous-time Bayesian networks and show significant computational benefits over state-of-the-art MCMC samplers for these models., Comment: Accepted at the Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR)

Discrete mixture models are routinely used for density estimation and clustering. While conducting inferences on the cluster-specific parameters, current frequentist and Bayesian methods often encounter problems when clusters are placed too close together to be scientifically meaningful. Current Bayesian practice generates component-specific parameters independently from a common prior, which tends to favor similar components and often leads to substantial probability assigned to redundant components that are not needed to fit the data. As an alternative, we propose to generate components from a repulsive process, which leads to fewer, better separated and more interpretable clusters. We characterize this repulsive prior theoretically and propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The methods are illustrated using simulated data as well as real datasets.

Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary variable Gibbs sampler. Our approach is based on the idea of uniformization, and sets up a Markov chain over paths by sampling a finite set of virtual jump times and then running a standard hidden Markov model forward filtering-backward sampling algorithm over states at the set of extant and virtual jump times. We demonstrate significant computational benefits over a state-of-the-art Gibbs sampler on a number of continuous time Bayesian networks.