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Although it is well known that vaccines against many infectious diseases confer positive economic externalities via indirect protection, analysts have typically ignored possible herd protection effects in policy analyses of vaccination programs. Despite a growing literature on the economic theory of vaccine externalities and several innovative mathematical modeling approaches, there have been almost no empirical applications. The first objective of the paper is to develop a transparent, accessible economic framework for assessing the private and social economic benefits of vaccination. We also describe how stated preference studies (for example, contingent valuation and choice modeling) can be useful sources of economic data for this analytic framework. We demonstrate socially optimal policies using a graphical approach, starting with a standard textbook depiction of Pigouvian subsidies applied to herd protection from vaccination programs. We also describe nonstandard depictions that highlight some counterintuitive implications of herd protection that we feel are not commonly understood in the applied policy literature. We illustrate the approach using economic and epidemiological data from two neighborhoods in Kolkata, India. We use recently published epidemiological data on the indirect effects of cholera vaccination in Matlab, Bangladesh (Ali et al., 2005) for fitting a simple mathematical model of how protection changes with vaccine coverage. We use new data on costs and private demand for cholera vaccines in Kolkata, India, and approximate the optimal Pigouvian subsidy. We find that if the optimal subsidy is unknown, selling vaccines at full marginal cost may, under some circumstances, be a preferable second-best option to providing them for free. (Contains 14 footnotes, 2 tables, and 8 figures.)

This paper aims to explore the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with dengue co-infection using mathematical modeling. In this study, SIR model is developed that explains the trajectory of the epidemic to boost a plan for an effective control strategy for COVID-19 in Bangladesh. The model is extended to optimal control strategies. Pontryagin's Principle is used to establish the appropriate conditions for the existence of optimal control and the optimality system for the co-infection model. Coinfected cases were reduced with control greater than without control. Using Omicron incidence cases from 1st January – 13th April 2022, the maximum likelihood estimate of R0 with a 95% confidence interval is1.89 [ 95% CI: 1.88, 1.91]. The R0 estimated from the exponential growth method is 2.08 [95% CI: 2.07,2.09]and time-dependent estimate is 2.10[95% CI: 1.72,2.58]. The generalized logistic growth model predicted 19, 52,131 cumulative cases on day 103 (April 13, 2022), and a relatively flat curve of cumulative growth of COVID-19 cases implies a declining trend of new cases. The study also found from sensitivity analysis that, R0 is proportional to the mean generation time. This paper attempted to focus on suppressing the COVID-19 co-infections by preventing dengue and COVID-19. The results of the study show that by implementing optimal control spread of dengue and COVID-19 could be minimized. The logistic growth model suggests that the infection rate of COVID-19 is decreasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study proposes applying an efficient but straightforward multi-objective constrained optimization model for optimal water allocation among irrigation and environmental sectors. The model has been implemented in the Muhuri Irrigation Project (MIP), Bangladesh, where the irrigation systems lead to unjustifiable use of groundwater. This study explores how water can be optimised to increase agricultural production and sustain the local environment in the MIP. Hence, the paper has two objectives—to maximise the net return and minimise the deficit in environmental flow. The study uses a Non-Dominating Sorting Genetic Algorithm, NSGA-II, to solve the research problem. Results indicate that crops more profitable to trade should be cultivated. Furthermore, the rainfall has more impact on the net return and environmental flow deficit than water inflow. The findings of this study can help plan irrigation water and cropland resources and be a reference for further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chikungunya is one of the major public health problems in Bangladesh and the effect of the disease is more virulent over the country. In this paper, a compartmental mathematical model has been proposed that describes the transmission of chikungunya disease in Bangladesh. Nonlinear incidence rate is considered for disease transmission and the system of nonlinear differential equations is developed to represent the model. Furthermore, the treatment term has been introduced in the model. The basic reproduction number, which is a biological threshold parameter for this disease, has been computed for the model by the method of next generation matrix. Disease free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated and the stability of the model has been analyzed using the basic reproduction number. The global stability has been established using the Lyapunov function theory. In this study, we have calculated the numerical value of the basic reproduction number and performed numerical simulations based on the real data collected from several health institutes of Bangladesh. Both analytical and numerical results provide a pattern about the dynamics of the disease in Bangladesh. Based on the effects, some important policies and insights are provided that might help in reducing the number of infected cases of chikungunya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the dynamics of the diphtheria out-break among the immunocompromised group of people, the Rohingya ethnic group. Approximately 800,000 Rohingya refugees are living in the Balukhali refugee camp in Cox's Bazar. The camp is densely populated with the scarcity of proper food, healthcare, and sanitation. Subsequently, in November 2017 a diphtheria epidemic occurred in this camp. To keep up with the pace of the disease spread, medical demands, and disaster planning, we set out to predict diphtheria outbreaks among Bangladeshi Rohingya immigrants. We adopted a modified Susceptible-Latent-Infectious-Recovered (SLIR) transmission model to forecast the possible implications of the diphtheria outbreak in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh. We discussed two distinct situations: the daily confirmed cases and cumulative data with unique consequences of diphtheria. Data for statistical and numerical simulations were obtained from [1]. We used the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method to obtain numerical simulations for varying parameters of the model which would demonstrate conclusive estimates. Daily and cumulative data predictions were explored for alternative values of the parameters, i.e., disease transmission rate (β) and recovery rate (γ). Additionally, the average basic reproduction number for the parameters β and was calculated and displayed graphically. Our analysis demonstrated that the diphtheria outbreak would be under control if the maintenance could perform properly. The results of this research can be utilized by the Bangladeshi government and other humanitarian organizations to forecast disease outbreaks. Furthermore, it might help them to make detailed and practical planning to avoid the worst scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continual course correction during implementation of nutrition programmes is critical to address factors that might limit coverage and potential for impact. Programme improvement requires rigorous scientific inquiry to identify and address implementation pathways and the factors that affect them. Under the auspices of 'The Micronutrient Powders Consultation: Lessons Learned for Operational Guidance,' 3 working groups were formed to summarize experiences and lessons across countries regarding micronutrient powder (MNP) interventions for young children. This paper focuses on how MNP interventions undertook key elements of programme improvement, specifically, the use of programme theory, monitoring, process evaluation, and supportive supervision. Methods included a review of published and grey literature, interviews with key informants, and deliberations throughout the consultation process. We found that although much has been written and published about the use of monitoring and process evaluation to inform MNP interventions at small scale, there has been little formal documentation of lessons for the transition from pilot to scaled implementation. Supervision processes and experiences are not documented, and to our knowledge, there is no evidence of whether they have been effective to improve implementation. Improving the efficiency and effectiveness of interventions requires identification of critical indicators for detecting implementation challenges and drivers of impact, integration with existing programmes and systems, strengthened technical capacity, and financing for implementation of effective monitoring systems. Our understanding of programme improvement for MNP interventions is still incomplete, especially outside of the pilot stage, and we propose a set of implementation research questions that require further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: mHealth interventions have huge potential to reach large numbers of people in resource poor settings but have been criticised for lacking theory-driven design and rigorous evaluation. This paper shares the process we developed when developing an awareness raising and behaviour change focused mHealth intervention, through applying behavioural theory to in-depth qualitative research. It addresses an important gap in research regarding the use of theory and formative research to develop an mHealth intervention. Objectives: To develop a theory-driven contextually relevant mHealth intervention aimed at preventing and managing diabetes among the general population in rural Bangladesh. Methods: In-depth formative qualitative research (interviews and focus group discussions) were conducted in rural Faridpur. The data were analysed thematically and enablers and barriers to behaviour change related to lifestyle and the prevention of and management of diabetes were identified. In addition to the COM-B (Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behaviour) model of behaviour change we selected the Transtheoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to be applied to the formative research in order to guide the development of the intervention. Results: A six step-process was developed to outline the content of voice messages drawing on in-depth qualitative research and COM-B and TDF models. A table to inform voice messages was developed and acted as a guide to scriptwriters in the production of the messages. Conclusions: In order to respond to the local needs of a community in Bangladesh, a process of formative research, drawing on behavioural theory helped in the development of awareness-raising and behaviour change mHealth messages through helping us to conceptualise and understand behaviour (for example by categorising behaviour into specific domains) and subsequently identify specific behavioural strategies to target the behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose From the perspective of developing countries, studies regarding the behavioral effects of quitting tobacco consumption on emerging psychological determinants are limited. The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of emotional intelligence (EI), social norms, susceptibility and self-efficacy on the behavioral effects of quitting tobacco consumption among young smokers in developing countries.Design/methodology/approach By reviewing existing literature, this study developed a conceptual model to test the influences of significant psychological determinants in regards to a young smoker’s intention to quit smoking. Accordingly, a survey instrument was designed to collect data from young smokers in Bangladesh using the convenience sampling method. A total of 500 self-administered questionnaires were distributed, out of which only 400 questionnaires were used in final data analysis. This study applied partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to test the proposed model.Findings Perceived EI, perceived social norms and perceived susceptibility were found to have significant direct positive effects on intention to quit smoking. Perceived susceptibility and perceived self-efficacy were observed to have moderating effects on intention to quit smoking through perceived EI and perceived social norms respectively. However, perceived self-efficacy was not found to have any significant direct effect on intention to quit smoking.Originality/value This is the first study of its kind which combined EI, susceptibility, self-efficacy, and social norms in one theoretical framework to explain a young smoker’s intention to quit smoking. Also, in the context of Bangladesh and similar developing countries, there are no such studies which used the psychological components investigated in this study to predict a young smoker’s intention to quit smoking. Thus, the findings bring us closer to the goal of a tobacco-free society by allowing policy makers, NGOs, broader communities, and ultimately individual citizens to understand the psychological predictors of quitting tobacco consumption among young smokers in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Labor migration has a profound effect on families, but evidence documenting the impact of migration on women left behind is still lacking. Utilizing the Matlab Health and Socioeconomic Surveys, we examined the roles of migration and families in four domains of empowerment for women in Bangladesh. We found that women with international migrant spouses saw significant improvements in economic empowerment, mobility, and decision-making relative to women with coresident spouses (p <.0001). However, women who lived in multigenerational households with their parents or in-laws experienced significant reductions in empowerment across these three domains. Both having a migrant spouse and living in a multigenerational household had negative effects on beliefs about gender equivalence and reduced joint decision-making for women. Results, which were robust to migration selection controls (including propensity approaches), indicate that the benefits of migration for women left behind might be diluted by family structures that perpetuate unequal gender dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important steps have been taken at international summits to set up goals and targets to improve the wellbeing of children worldwide. Now the world also has more and better data to monitor progress. This paper presents a new approach to monitoring progress in child poverty reduction based on the Alkire and Foster adjusted headcount ratio and an array of complementary techniques. A theoretical discussion is accompanied by an assessment of child poverty reduction in Bangladesh based on four rounds of the demographic household survey (1997-2007). Emphasis is given to dimensional monotonicity and decomposability as desirable properties of multidimensional poverty measures. Complementary techniques for analysing changes over time are also illustrated, including the Shapley decomposition of changes in overall poverty, as well as a range of robustness tests and statistical significance tests. The results from Bangladesh illustrate the value added of these new tools and the information they provide for policy. The analysis reveals two paths to multidimensional poverty reduction by either decreasing the incidence of poverty or its intensity, and exposes an uneven distribution of national gains across geographical divisions. The methodology allows an integrated analysis of overall changes yet simultaneously examines progress in each region and in each dimension, retaining the positive features of dashboard approaches. The empirical evidence highlights the need to move beyond the headcount ratio towards new measures of child poverty that reflect the intensity of poverty and multiple deprivations that affect poor children at the same time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abnormal condition in a power system generally leads to a fall in system frequency, and it leads to system blackout in an extreme condition. This paper presents a technique to develop an auto load shedding and islanding scheme for a power system to prevent blackout and to stabilize the system under any abnormal condition. The technique proposes the sequence and conditions of the applications of different load shedding schemes and islanding strategies. It is developed based on the international current practices. It is applied to the Bangladesh Power System (BPS), and an auto load-shedding and islanding scheme is developed. The effectiveness of the developed scheme is investigated simulating different abnormal conditions in BPS. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study is designed to empirically test a model of high-involvement human resource management (HIHRM), organisational trust, and technology adaptation grounded on social exchange theory in the context of the private banking sector. The proposed model intends to add to the understanding of the effect of HIHRM on technology adaptation via the mediating influence of organisational trust. Frontline employees were surveyed using a self-administered questionnaire. Results from partial least square-structural equation modelling suggest that there is a significant influence of HIHRM on technology adaptation. Organisational trust further mediates the relationship. Thus, this paper finds an answer to the ‘black box’ of human resource management (HRM) practices, explaining how HIHRM influences employees’ attitudes towards technology adaptation. The study can help management have a better understanding of the importance of employee involvement-oriented HRM in introducing and implementing a new technology through the integration of trust processes in the organisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an economic rationale for the practice of consanguineous marriages observed in parts of the developing world. In a model of incomplete marriage markets, dowries are viewed as ex ante transfers made from the bride's family to the groom's family when the promise of ex post gifts and bequests is not credible. Consanguineous unions join families between whom ex ante pledges are enforceable ex post. The model predicts a negative relationship between consanguinity and dowries and higher bequests in consanguineous unions. An empirical analysis based on data from Bangladesh delivers results consistent with the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity demand forecasting for an off-grid area where no previous load data is available is an important prerequisite for power system expansion planning. Bangladesh is a relatively small, densely-populated country in South Asia with a large percentage of the population living below the poverty line. About 48.5% of the population has access to grid electricity. An uninterruptable power supply is one of the most important parameters for future development, with the logical conclusion being in the long run to expand present grid coverage. This paper presents an analysis to forecast the electricity demand of an isolated island in Bangladesh where past history of electrical load demand is not available. The analysis is based on the identification of the key, driving factors for electrical load growth of an area. The forecasting was done through inverse matrix calculation and linear regression analysis. It was found that the demand data, calculated from these two different approaches, are close enough to support the reliability of the proposed method. This method can be applicable for short term load forecasting of any isolated area throughout the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh is a flood prone country where huge damages take place every year. Therefore, to minimize flood extremes, it is important to control the flood peaks at the upstream area through suitable watershed management practices. The flood control management at the watershed scale requires good quality flood data. However, in developing countries like Bangladesh, such hydrological information is rarely available at the watershed level. Under such circumstances, it is important to use a hydrological model representing the rainfall-runoff process to arrive at the extreme flows in the rivers, which require extreme rainfall data as a major inflow to the hydrologic system. Furthermore, the density of rain gauges in Bangladesh is low and the quality of available flood data is poor. Considering this, it is important to develop regional extreme rainfall maps for the reliable estimation of flood flows in the river by using a suitable modeling approach. Therefore, in the present paper, an attempt has been made to derive the regional best fit extreme rainfall pattern for Bangladesh for the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles. This study uses the annual maximum daily rainfall of 68 rain gauge stations. An autocorrelation test is applied to test the independency of the data. Later, considering the heterogeneity in the hydroclimatic and topographic details, entire rain gauge stations have been clustered into six hydroclimatically homogeneous regions; namely, northeast (NE), northwest (NW), southeast (SE), southwest (SW), coastal, and central regions, by using the -mean clustering technique. The stations that did not pass the discordant and heterogeneity test were discarded from the regional frequency analysis. For regional frequency analysis, the L-moment method was applied. Based on the goodness of fit test and the L-moment ratio diagram, the generalized extreme values distribution was identified as the best fit for the SE, NW, and coastal regions. However, for NE, central, SW regions, the best fit distributions were generalized logistic and generalized Pareto, respectively. Using the derived distributions, regional extreme rainfall quantiles were estimated, followed by geo-mapping in ArcGIS 9.2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A main gap in the delivery of mental health and psychosocial (MHPSS) services to Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazar district in Bangladesh is the limited coverage of psychotherapeutic interventions. There is a shortage of mental health professionals who can provide culturally adapted and linguistically appropriate psychotherapeutic interventions that are congruent with the refugee experience. This article describes preliminary work on training Bangladeshi psychologists and para-professionals in applying a novel group-based psychological intervention for refugees, Group Integrative Adapt Therapy (IAT-G). This is a pragmatic, eclectic and transdiagnostic approach, based on the Adaptation and Development After Persecution and Trauma (ADAPT) model. It aims to help refugees to develop resilience and capacities for managing maladaptive reactions to trauma and post-migration living difficulties. This paper describes the key strategies and challenges during the first phase of the project. Activities included an extensive desk review, a one-week training workshop with competency assessments, cultural adaptation of the treatment manual and assessment measures, training on digital literacy and electronic data collection and a blended supervisory model (involving onsite and online sessions). It proved to be generally feasible but not easy to introduce IAT-G in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh is an overpopulated and the most densely populated country. It is the world's eighth-most populous country in south Asia with over 160 million people. Population problem in Bangladesh is one of the most burning issues in the recent years. So the increasing trend in population is a great threat to the nation and for this reason, the projection of the population of Bangladesh is essential. The purpose of this paper is to model and design the population growth in Bangladesh to predict the future population size. The exponential and the logistic growth models are applied to predict the population of Bangladesh during 1980 to 2080 using the actual data from 1980 to 2016. By using the exponential growth model, the predicted growth rate has been estimated approximately 2.67% and the population of Bangladesh has been predicted to be 1191 million in 2080. We have determined the carrying capacity (K) and vital coefficients a and b for the population prediction in vein of logistic growth model. Thus, the population growth rate of Bangladesh according to the logistic model has been estimated approximately 4.03% and the total population of Bangladesh has been predicted to be 245 million in 2080. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses Structural Vector Autoregression models with appropriate short run restrictions to see the response of output, price and exchange rate to an exogenous monetary-policy shock in Bangladesh. The impulse response functions show that an independent increase in policy interest rate is followed by decrease in output, appreciation of local currency, and increase in price level. However, the impacts are not statistically significant, implying that monetary policy is not effective in controlling short run economic fluctuations in Bangladesh. 'Prevalence of microcredit' and 'government domestic borrowing' may weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy. Thus, when conducting the monetary policy to achieve certain goals, the central bank of Bangladesh should consider the reality of microcredit and government domestic borrowing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study of microfinance institutions (MFIs) and their participants, we show how certain innovations made by MFIs during the COVID-19 pandemic enable further consolidation of NGOs in Bangladeshi society. The study is based on interviews conducted in 2020 with key personnel from three major NGOs in Bangladesh: Grameen, Sajida Foundation, and Brac (which is also the largest NGO in the world), as well as 20 interviews conducted in 2018 (before the pandemic) with microcredit recipients who use financial services. We observed that MFIs scaled up by taking on the function of relief provision, financial services became more entrenched, and NGO governance was bolstered as MFIs served as intermediaries between the state and people, even though, as the 2018 interviews reveal, microfinance participants were reticent about technology uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of CO2 emission reduction targets and carbon tax on future technologies selection especially solar PV and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005–2035. It also examines the co-benefits of energy security of the country. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system optimization model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The results of the study show that on a simple cost base, power generated from solar PV is not yet competitive with that of fossil fuel-based power plants. Alternative policies on CO2 emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO2 emission reduction targets and carbon tax directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean solar PV technologies compared to the base scenario. The cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of 33–61% compared to the base scenario. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5–22.37% and the primary energy supply system would be diversified. Solar PV plays an important role in achieving reasonable energy security. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, a vertically integrated shallow water model is developed. The model includes air bubbles to investigate air bubble effect (sensitivity) on water level due to a tropical storm along the coastal region of Bangladesh. The shallow water equations are solved using doubly nested conditionally stable finite difference schemes for incorporating coastal bending and offshore islands with considerable accuracy in the numerical schemes. A fine mesh scheme has been nested into a coarse mesh scheme in the region of our study. In the fine mesh scheme, all the major islands are incorporated through proper stair step representation. For the existence of so many small and big islands between Barisal and Chittagong and also for high bending of the coastline along the Meghna estuary, a very fine mesh scheme is again nested into the fine mesh scheme. The developed model was then applied to simulate water levels due to surges associated with the cyclones April 1991 and AILA along the coast of Bangladesh. The increases in water levels due to air bubbles were found to be around 2–12% with respect to the reference void fraction 10–70%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Stock market prediction is an important area of financial forecasting, which attracts great interest to stock buyers and sellers, stock investors, policy makers, applied researchers, and many others who are involved in the capital market. In this paper, a comparative study has been conducted to predict stock index values using soft computing models and time series model. Paying attention to the applied econometric noises because our considered series are time series, we predict Chittagong stock indices for the period from January 1, 2005 to May 5, 2011. We have used well-known models such as, the genetic algorithm (GA) model and the adaptive network fuzzy integrated system (ANFIS) model as soft computing forecasting models. Very widely used forecasting models in applied time series econometrics, namely, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model is considered as time series model. Our findings have revealed that the use of soft computing models is more successful than the considered time series model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of CO2 emission reduction on future technology selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector up to 2035 considering the base year 2005. It also examines the implications of CO2 emission reduction targets on energy security of the country. The analysis is based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The results show that the introduction of the CO2 emission reduction targets directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based as well as clean, renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the CO2 emission reduction target of 10–30%, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of over 1400PJ to 4898PJ compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 5.5–15.2% in the CO2 emission reduction targets and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper deals with the dynamical behavior of plankton population ecosystem, mainly found in Sunderban mangrove area. The ecosystem is represented by a set of two dimensional non-linear differential equations involving zooplankton-phytoplankton population. Plankton populations undergo dramatic changes in marine ecology. We propose a description of plankton communities as excitable systems which resemble the behavior of excitable media. The delay parameter dependency of the various ‘excitable’ phenomena, trigger mechanism, threshold, and slow recovery, is clear, and permits ready investigation of the influence of properties of the physical environment, including variations in nutrient fluxes, temperature or population levels. We have analyzed the stability and bifurcation of the model system with and without delay. We have shown the existence and uniqueness of limit cycles in the rapid growth of the plankton population. We also studied the model system into a stochastic one, by incorporating random fluctuations of the environment. And we study the stochastic stability of the dynamical system in mean square sense around the interior equilibrium. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

High Arsenic (As) in natural groundwater in most of the shallow sandy aquifers of the South-Western part of Bangladesh has recently been focused as a serious environmental concern. This paper is aiming to illustrate the statistical evaluation of the Arsenic polluted groundwater to identify the correlation of that As with other participating groundwater parameters so that the As contamination level can easily be predicted by analyzing only those parameters. Multivariate data analysis done with the collected groundwaters from the 67 tubewells of the contaminated aquifer suggests that As may have substantial positive correlations with Fe, Mn, Al, DOC, HCO3 and PO4 whereas noticeable negative relationships have also been observed with SO4, Cl and NO3-N. Based on these relationships, a multiple linear regression model has been developed that incorporates seven most influential groundwater parameters as the independent predictor variables to estimate the As contamination level in the polluted groundwater. This model could also be a suggestive tool while designing the As removal scheme for the affected groundwater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper describes the impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) rise and sea-level rise (SLR) on cyclonic storm surge flooding in western Bangladesh. A calibrated numerical hydrodynamic model was used to simulate surge wave propagation through the rivers and overland flooding. The model was calibrated with base condition (present climate), and then eight flooding scenarios of plausible future conditions were assessed by considering increased surge heights. Flooded area, flooding depth and surge intrusion length were computed by superimposing the predicted maximum water level information on a digital elevation model (DEM). This analysis showed that for a storm surge under 2°C SST rise and 0.3m SLR, flood risk area would be 15.3% greater than the present risk area and depth of flooding would increase by as much as 22.7% within 20km from the coastline. Within the risk area, the study identified 5690km2 land (22% of exposed coast) as a high-risk zone (HRZ) where flooding of depth 1m or more might occur, and people should move to nearby cyclone shelters during extreme cyclonic events. Predicted area of HRZ is 1.26 times the currently demarcated HRZ. It was estimated that 320 additional shelters are required to accommodate people in the newly identified HRZ. This information would be of value to policy and decision makers for future shelter planning and designing shelter heights. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Simulation of water quality variation in a particular river stretch or at a particular location with time requires mathematical modelling based on advection and dispersion phenomenon. In this context, estimation of an appropriate dispersion coefficient, which is a function of characteristics of a water body, is very essential and forms an important step in mathematical modelling. The tracer study conducted in this context on the river Ganga to estimate the dispersion coefficient is described in this paper with an analysis of data based on a stream-tube approach. For the wide river Ganga, with a velocity in the range 0.3-0.5 m/s, the estimated transverse dispersion coefficient is 1.33 m 2 /s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The applicability of the Coale-McNeil marriage entry model to a Bangladesh population is examined. The distribution of ages at entry into the marriage market is taken as normal and the general waiting times to marriage as negative exponential. This article examines two types of data from Bangladesh: (1) the distributions of ages at entry to the marriage market and waiting times, to verify the basic assumptions of the model, and (2) cross-sectional survey data, to derive the fitted first-marriage schedule. In both instances, the model showed a good fit with the Bangladesh data. In the absence of accurate marital registration data, the model may be appropriately utilized to estimate the ages of marriage of females in Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in Bangladesh. Although the National TB control program of Bangladesh is implementing a comprehensive expansion of TB control strategies, logistical challenges exist, and there is significant uncertainty concerning the disease burden. Mathematical modelling of TB is considered one of the most effective ways to understand the dynamics of infection transmission and allows quantification of parameters in different settings, including Bangladesh. In this study, we present a two-strain mathematical modelling framework to explore the dynamics of drug-susceptible (DS) and multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB in Bangladesh. We calibrated the model using DS and MDR-TB annual incidence data from Bangladesh from years 2001 to 2015. Further, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters and found that the contact rate of both strains had the largest influence on the basic reproduction numbers R 0 s and R 0 m of DS and MDR-TB, respectively. Increasingly powerful intervention strategies were developed, with realistic impact and coverage determined with the help of local staff. We simulated for the period from 2020 to 2035. Here, we projected the DS and MDR-TB burden (as measured by the number of incident cases and mortality) under a range of intervention scenarios to determine which of these scenario is the most effective at reducing burden. Of the single-intervention strategies, enhanced case detection is the most effective and prompt in reducing DS and MDR-TB incidence and mortality in Bangladesh and that with GeneXpert testing was also highly effective in decreasing the burden of MDR-TB. Our findings also suggest combining additional interventions simultaneously leads to greater effectiveness, particularly for MDR-TB, which we estimate requires a modest investment to substantially reduce, whereas DS-TB requires a strong sustained investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This qualitative study was conducted with a convenience sample of 20 South Asian women experiencing domestic violence in the United States. The results explore the patterns of abuse as well as the factors and circumstances (i.e. turning points) that motivated South Asian women to change in the context of the stage that they were in as per the Landenburger model (binding, enduring, disengaging, and recovery). The four themes that emerged from the interviews and analysis are (1) 'Timing and Frequency of abuse', (2) 'Methods of control – financial, isolation and suspicion', (3) 'Cycle of Abuse', and (4)' Turning Points – motivation to change'. Implications for practice and policy-level changes for abused South Asian women in the United States are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though Bangladesh is one of the largest garments manufacturing country in the world and there happened revolutionary changes more than four decades ago, they couldn't achieve sustainable platform yet. The failure to achieve up to the requirement level for the competitive capabilities/manufacturing metrics is the common phenomenon for the manufacturers. Even there is an alarming issue that the manufacturers yet don't know how they are affected by these failures and also can't measure how much they are statistically fit. By being motivated from manufacturer's failure, we worked on a manufacturing unit of a garments industry where we aggregated manufacturing metrics and determined how the manufacturers are affected by the failure of these metrics. This research work will conclude by proposing few models with their mathematical and graphical explanation. By using these models, the manufacturers will be able to determine their strategic fitness, security level, and associated loss/penalty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Fertility transition is outright by prime four proximate determinants (marriage, contraception, postpartum infecundability, and abortion). The present study examines the contributions of proximate determinants on fertility decline and quantifies inhibiting the effect of major proximate determinants according to the socioeconomic characteristics in Bangladesh. Methods: The current study was based mainly on the three Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) carried out in 1993- 1994, 2004, and 2014. Bongaarts' fertility framework was applied to analyze the proximate determinants of fertility in the socioeconomic status of women in Bangladesh. Results: In 1993-1994, contraception was the greatest impediment to fertility followed by postpartum infecundability, marriage, and induced abortion, respectively. In 2014, contraception was the highest fertility obstructing effect followed by marriage, postpartum infecundability, and abortion, respectively, in both rural and urban areas of Bangladesh. Throughout the study period and even now, fertility is revered in the Sylhet and Chittagong divisions of Bangladesh. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage, contraception, and abortion has an affirmative relationship with the educational status of women. Postpartum infecundability, however, displays an inverse relationship with the educational status of women. Conclusion: The current study suggests that contraception plays a vital role in fertility reduction in Bangladesh. In particular, special attention should be placed on those regions (Chittagong and Sylhet divisions) that register low contraception prevalence rates. Special programs should focus on creating an awareness of the disadvantages of child marriage among women who reside in the division of Chittagong and Sylhet of Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nurses play a significant role in providing quality care and in preventing surgical site infection. However, a thorough literature review revealed a lack of empirical studies regarding surgical site infection prevention in Bangladesh. The objectives of this study were to identify nurses' practices and their barriers and facilitators for surgical site infection prevention, and to propose direction for improving nurses' practices for such prevention. A mixed method design was used, using the Social Ecological Model as a framework. The quantitative phase of the study was conducted using a questionnaire survey with 233 randomly selected registered nurses who were working in 3 tertiary-level hospitals. The descriptive qualitative phase was conducted with 22 registered nurses utilizing focus groups, and with 3 nurse administrators utilizing in-depth interviews. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics for quantitative data and content analysis for qualitative data. The findings showed that less than half of the nurses always practiced surgical site infection prevention. Four barriers were insufficient knowledge, insufficient resources and budget supply, insufficient performance monitoring system, and lack of a surveillance system. Two facilitators were team willingness and team support of nurses' practices. Nurses should adhere to surgical site infection preventive practices in aspects of preoperative shaving; prophylactic antibiotic administration; and hand hygiene. The PEAK Model is proposed for improving nurses' practices for surgical site infection prevention but requires further testing in Bangladeshi hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence on the relation between women's microcredit participation and their exposure to marital violence has been inconsistent across studies. This study examined how women's various levels of microcredit participation are associated with marital violence against women (MVW), while also taking into account the husbands' gender ideology. The study included 243 wife-abusive men in rural Bangladesh. Multiple regressions were performed to predict the frequency of MVW in the preceding year. Of the married women, 52.3 % were microcredit participants, 11.1 % of whom were active participants and 41.2 % nominal participants. The study showed that women's active microcredit participation was negatively associated with MVW, and nominal participation was positively associated with MVW among the husbands who held a more conservative gender ideology. The findings suggest that women-focused microcredit interventions should also take into account men's gender ideologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community health workers (CHWs) have strong potential to extend health and nutrition services to underserved populations. However, CHWs face complex challenges when working within weak health systems and among communities with limited abilities to access and utilise CHW services. It is crucial to understand these challenges to improve programme support mechanisms. This study describes the results of qualitative investigations into CHW perceptions of barriers to quality of care among two groups of workers implementing community case management of acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and severe acute malnutrition in southern Bangladesh. We explored systemic barriers to service delivery, pertaining to communities and health systems, which limited the usefulness and effectiveness of CHW services. Focus group discussions (n = 10) were conducted in March 2010. Discussions were analysed for themes related to CHWs' work challenges. Findings highlight several perceived barriers to effective service provision, including community poverty constraining uptake of recommended practices, irregular supplies of medicine from the health facility and poor quality of care for CHW referrals sent there. This study further documents interactions between demand‐side and supply‐side constraints including the influence of health system resource constraints on community trust in CHW services, and the influence of community resource constraints on the utilisation and effectiveness of CHW services. By documenting service delivery challenges from the perspective of the frontline workers themselves, this article contributes evidence to help identify appropriate support mechanisms for these workers, in order to develop scalable and sustainable CHW programmes in countries with under‐resourced public health care infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between non-governmental organisations’ (NGOs) socio-economic and training programmes and their beneficiaries’ coping capacity during natural disasters. NGOs are the most active force supporting community welfare programmes in dealing with vulnerable clients during disasters. This study utilises both qualitative and quantitative techniques based on multi-staged stratified sampling using multiple regression analysis. The results indicate that NGOs’ training reaction significantly improves their clients’ disaster prevention capacity. This finding implies that NGOs should put greater emphasis on socio-economic programmes as well as training programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Understanding the impact of service quality on economic and social outcomes is critical to extend the focus of IT service research. This study evaluates the impact of quality on both these dimensions in mHealth using a cross disciplinary approach. The conceptual model is rooted in the traditional cognition–affective–conation chain but explicitly incorporates convenience, confidence, cooperation, care and concern as the primary dimensions of mHealth quality. The model is validated in the context of a business-to-consumer mHealth services using partial least squares path modelling. The results confirm that service quality has both direct and indirect impact on continuance intentions (i.e. economic outcome) and quality of life (i.e. social outcome). In this relationship, satisfaction plays the key mediating role, whereas service quality does not have any moderating effect. Research implications point to scale and sustain this new healthcare paradigm by linking service quality to satisfaction, continuance intentions and quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed the quality of care provided by community health workers (CHWs) in managing cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) according to a treatment algorithm. A mixed methods approach was employed to provide perspectives on different aspects of quality of care, including technical competence and acceptability to caretakers. CHWs screened children at community level using a mid-upper arm circumference measurement, and treated cases without medical complications. Fifty-five case management observations were conducted using a quality of care checklist, with 89.1% (95% confidence interval: 77.8-95.9%) of CHWs achieving 90% error-free case management or higher. Caretakers perceived CHWs' services as acceptable and valuable, with doorstep delivery of services promoting early presentation in this remote area of Bangladesh. Integration of the treatment of SAM into community-based health and nutrition programs appears to be feasible and effective. In this setting, well-trained and supervised CHWs were able to effectively manage cases of SAM. These findings suggest the feasibility of further decentralization of treatment from current delivery models for community-based management of acute malnutrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate models (GCMs). Our analysis shows that only a limited number of GCMs are required to reconstruct observed discharge. Based on the GCM outputs and long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the period 1961--2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh. The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order the effects of climate change for specific river basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The correlation dimension (CD) of a time series provides information on the number of dominant variables present in the evolution of the underlying system dynamics. In this study, we explore, using logistic regression (LR), possible physical connections between the CD and the mathematical modeling of risk of arsenic contamination in groundwater. Our database comprises a large-scale arsenic survey conducted in Bangladesh. Following the recommendation by Hossain and Sivakumar (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 20(1–2):66–76, ), who reported CD values ranging from 8 to 11 for this database, 11 variables are considered herein as indicators of the aquifer’s geochemical regime with potential influence on the arsenic concentration in groundwater. A total of 2,048 possible combinations of influencing variables are considered as candidate LR risk models to delineate the impact of the number of variables on the prediction accuracy of the model. We find that the uncertainty associated with prediction of wells as safe and unsafe by LR risk model declines systematically as the total number of influencing variables increases from 7 to 11. The sensitivity of the mean predictive performance also increases noticeably for this range. The consistent reduction in predictive uncertainty coupled with the increased sensitivity of the mean predictive behavior within the universal sample space exemplify the ability of CD to function as a proxy for the number of dominant influencing variables. Such a rapid proxy, based on non-linear dynamic concepts, appears to have considerable merit for application in current management strategies on arsenic contamination in developing countries, where both time and resources are very limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from Bangladesh, Ira Longini and colleagues develop a mathematical model predicting that oral vaccination of 50%-70% of the population could control cholera transmission in an endemic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article investigates the decomposition methods in agricultural productivity growth and technological change in Bangladesh. It discusses the basic mathematics of alternative crop production decomposition methods. The percentage of change in crop production and the contributions of various components to growth of aggregate crop output growth are presented. The article discusses the real contribution of the Green Revolution to increased agricultural output in Bangladesh.

This study examines empirical distributions of postpartum amenorrhea from three longitudinal studies of breastfeeding women conducted in Bangladesh, India, and Guatemala, both to provide information on the distribution of postpartum amenorrhea and to evaluate statistical models of postpartum amenorrhea. Observation of the empirical schedules indicates that the most common shape for a distribution of postpartum amenorrhea is bimodal. Amenorrhea is best represented by a curve that consists of two hills. Both an analytic model consisting of a mixed distribution and a logit model with a revised standard are suggested for use with data on postpartum amenorrhea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the sensitivity of estimated fertility levels and trends to alternative interpretations of responses in fertility surveys. It uses data from the 1975 Bangladesh Fertility Survey. It presents some simple mathematical models to evaluate the consequences of an erroneous interpretation. The author also presents some guidelines for a correct interpretation. It refers to a package program of the Central Office of the World Fertility Survey which edits and imputes different types of dates in World Fertility Survey questionnaires. It is found that in Bangladesh, the imputation had no serious impact upon, fertility levels.