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Power industry is the largest carbon emission sector in China. Therefore, this industry will play an important role in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals (“dual carbon” goals) for the whole society. For this purpose, it is critical to balance four relationships, i.e. relationship between carbon mitigation and energy security, carbon peaking in the short term and carbon neutrality in the long term, the coordinated carbon mitigation in power industry and other industries, and technical feasibility and economic efficiency. This paper proposes the China’s Energy Interconnection scenario to promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality of the society, which can be divided into three stages, i.e. peaking carbon emissions before 2030, rapid emission reduction during 2030–2050, and comprehensive carbon neutrality before 2060. It is expected that the power system will achieve zero emissions before other industries and contribute negative emissions afterwards, providing emission space for carbon neutrality in other industries across the society. Looking into the future, China’s electricity demand will continue to grow. Clean energy will become the main power source, the use of coal-fired power will be gradually reduced, and gas-fired power will undertake the function of peak-load regulation. Faster progress will be made in forming an overall grid pattern with ultra-high voltage (UHV) grid as the backbone and featuring “west-to-east and north-to-south power transmission, a balanced energy mix, and transnational power interconnection.” Finally, this paper discusses a new-type of power system characterized by a high proportion of electricity generated from clean energy, high ratio of electric and electronic equipment, and a high proportion of power transmission and reception, together with summer and winter high load periods, and points out the challenges faced by the new-type power system with a high proportion of renewable energy sources in terms of flexibility, safety, and economic efficiency, and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.

This paper summarizes the new progress in building China’s national carbon market since 2020, and analyzes the connotation of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals (“dual carbon” goals) and its significance to socio-economic development in China. Through case analysis, this paper expounds the role of China’s recent carbon trading activities in promoting the transition toward green and low-carbon socio-economic development. On that basis, this paper conceives a top-level design for building the national carbon market that serves the “dual carbon” goals: building and improving the national carbon market that fundamentally serves as an emission reduction tool, developing the institutions and systems of the national carbon market with a focus on emission cap, creating a multilevel and diversified carbon trading scheme centered on the national carbon market, exploring a mechanism that takes carbon emission reduction as the core and promotes the synergistic effect of the carbon market with other environmental rights trading markets, and pursuing the healthy and orderly development of carbon finance that aims to serve carbon emission reduction.

[Objective] Oil and gas enterprises not only serve as a major driving force in low-carbon energy transformation but also represent a crucial domain for achieving both economic development and carbon emission reduction. Therefore, their high-quality development holds significant importance in advancing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in an orderly manner. [Methods] Considering the evolving landscape aimed at achieving the “dual carbon” goals and the emerging development trends within oil and gas enterprises, this paper integrates relevant theories and findings from literature research to discuss the connotations and characteristics of high-quality development of these enterprises. It provides a comprehensive examination of the opportunities and challenges encountered in the current developmental phase and explores the viable paths to promote high-quality development in oil and gas enterprises under the guidance of the “dual carbon”goals. [Results] The implications of high-quality development within oil and gas enterprises in the context of “dual carbon” were clarified as follows: Oil and gas enterprises leverage their full resources to invigorate the development momentum by transforming development modes and optimizing development structure, with the goal of overcoming bottlenecks in energy and environmental factors, to reconstruct a highquality development value system that encompasses economic, social, and environmental aspects and fosters development characterized by low-carbon, rationality, innovation, and sustainability. Key challenges impeding their progress include the formidable pressure of emission reduction, inadequacies in ensuring energy supply, and deficiencies in technological innovation. The paths identified to foster their highquality development involve focusing on energy conservation and emission reduction, deepening industrial restructuring, promoting application innovations in the digital economy, expediting advancements in green technology, reinforcing capital support, accelerating the nurturing of green talents, creating a long-term management system, and enhancing collaboration in the environmental field. [Conclusion] Amidst the backdrop of “dual carbon”, it becomes imperative for oil and gas enterprises to proactively initiate measures to align with evolving development requirements, striving for coordinated progress in securing energy supply and advancing green, low-carbon transformations while reconstructing the value system for high-quality development.

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Under the influence of the dual policies of sustainable economic development and the national dual-carbon target, the establishment of an environmental protection department for the treatment of heavily polluting industries is imminent, and the country has launched pollution control policies and regulations to restrict the emission rights of heavily polluting industries. Therefore, this paper focuses on whether the restriction of emission rights in key industries has reduced carbon emissions. To achieve this, this paper uses panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019 and adopts a two-way fixed-effects DID model to systematically analyze the impact of the key pollution industry governance policies launched by the Ministry of Environmental Protection on CO2 emissions in 2017. And further analyze the role of variables such as green technology innovation patents and energy efficiency using this model, while parallel trend tests and placebo tests, and related policies are used to ensure the robustness of the regression results. This paper reveals that: (1) The heavy pollution industry governance policy implemented in 2017 can effectively reduce CO2 emissions in the cities of the treated group, and the effect is more significant in the year of policy implementation; (2) Green utility patents and energy-use efficiency are the effective mediating mechanisms to reduce CO2 emissions; (3) Over time, the effect of heavy pollution industry governance policy on CO2 emissions gradually decreases; (4) The reliability of the baseline regression results of this paper is proved by the use of parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and tests excluding the influence factors such as relevant policies in the same period. Therefore, the key polluting industries treatment policy launched by China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2017 under the recent dual-carbon policy development goals formulated by China, can effectively reduce carbon emissions; however, in the future economic development process, the government should give more consideration to the continuity of the policy impact and its coherence on economic development when implementing the policy.

Energy quota trading is critical to both energy conservation and the achievement of dual-carbon goals. However, little remains to be done on total factor productivity and economic potential for Chinese industry. The purpose of this paper is to counterfactually model and explore the effects of energy quota trading on total factor productivity and economic potential in industrial sector. We propose a command-controlled DEA model and an energy quota trading DEA model through non-parametric linear programming based on two policy strategies of energy consumption control. We then assess total factor productivity and its growth sources for 35 two-digit industrial sector in China, as well as examine economic potential and optimal path forecasts for carbon peaking. The results show that total factor productivity and economic potential for energy quota trading are higher than those for command-controlled energy policy. Energy-saving effect can be achieved for energy quota trading because the total energy input is lower. Additionally, the sources of productivity growth differ in timing. The average economic potential and total factor productivity of different industries differ due to the heterogeneity of the production conditions and scale of development of individual market players. Moreover, the catch-up emission reduction path with an increase of 8% in output and 4.76% in energy consumption is the optimal carbon peaking path under energy quota trading. Our findings shed valuable light on China's efforts to expand energy quota trading for high-quality development in the context of carbon peaking. • Propose a command-controlled DEA model and an energy quota trading DEA model. • Assess TFP and its growth sources for industrial sector in China. • Compare the impact of different energy policies on economic potential and TFP. • Estimate the energy saving and emission reduction potential of energy quota trading. • Examine the optimal energy-saving and emission-reduction path forecasts for carbon peaking.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's 'dual carbon' strategy is of strategic importance in leading global climate governance and promoting China's high-quality and green economic development. Cities are the centres of human activities. However, these are also places where high energy consumption and high carbon emissions are concentrated. This study selected data from 192 small and medium-sized cities in mainland China for the period 2000–2020. It classified these into seven categories using the K-means clustering method, calculated the decoupling status of different types of small and medium-sized cities based on the Tapio decoupling index, and analysed the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in various types of small and medium-sized cities based on the EKC curve theory. Finally, the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model was used to classify and predict the time required to achieve carbon peaking for seven types of small and medium-sized cities. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The development status of small and medium-sized cities shows a 'geese echelon pattern'. New dynamic small and medium-sized urban areas may reach peak carbon emissions first, while resource-based small and medium-sized urban areas may be the last to do so. (2) The decoupling of carbon emissions from industrial development in small and medium-sized cities has not been completed. This manifests mainly through the states of declining decoupling, absolute decoupling, and strong negative decoupling. (3) A significant inverted U-shaped relationship exists between economic development and carbon emissions in these cities. (4) These cities may have the disadvantage of premature or excessive de-industrialisation. Additionally, these generally have an inefficient and expansionary economic development status. Therefore, this study contended for a more robust integration of a radical political economy and ecological economics to support the development of such cities in China. The paper proposes differentiated development paths and fundamental recommendations for small and medium-sized cities in the implementation of the 'double carbon' strategy. The intention is to provide theoretical guidance and implications for promoting green and low-carbon development in urban and rural areas and for the early achievement of the strategy in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource-based cities are important strategic bases for securing resources in China and have made great contributions to the country's economic development. Long-term extensive resource development has made resource-based cities an important region constraining China from achieving comprehensive low-carbon development. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the low-carbon transition path of resource-based cities for their energy greening, industrial transformation, and high-quality economic development. This study compiled the CO2 emission inventory of resource-based cities in China from 2005 to 2017, explored the contribution to CO2 emissions from three perspectives (driver, industry, and city), and predicted the peak of CO2 emissions in resource-based cities. The results show that resource-based cities contribute 18.4% of the country's GDP and emit 44.4% of the country's CO2 and that economic growth and CO2 emissions have not yet been decoupled. The per capita CO2 emissions and emission intensity of resource-based cities are 1.8 times and 2.4 times higher than the national average, respectively. Economic growth and energy intensity are the biggest drivers and main inhibitors of CO2 emissions growth. Industrial restructuring has become the biggest inhibitor of CO2 emissions growth. Based on the different resource endowments, industrial structures, and socio-economic development levels of resource-based cities, we propose differentiated low-carbon transition pathways. This study can provide references for cities to develop differentiated low-carbon development paths under the "double carbon" target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems has been the concern of governments. Integrated energy system (IES) is affected by climate change during his operation, in order to study the impact of climate change on IES and achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems, this paper proposes an integrated machine learning(IML) to forecast the long-term load, then investigates IES costs and carbon emissions in relation to climate, followed by the establishment of carbon peak energy system(CPES) and carbon neutral energy system(CNES), finally the honey badger algorithm is used to optimize the configuration of CPES and CNES. The results show that: IML can accurately make load forecasts. Under climate change, changes in load reduce the cost and carbon emissions of IES, and changes in equipment efficiency increase the cost and carbon emissions of IES. When both are considered, the cost and carbon emissions of IES increase by 1.18% and 0.92% per decade respectively. The costs of CPES and CNES increase by 0.93% and 1% respectively for every 10 years earlier than the year of achievement. To meet China's "double carbon" goal, CPES and CNES need to increase their costs by 1.97% and 2% respectively. • Integrated machine learning proposed for long-term load forecasting. • Studied the impact of system equipment efficiency and load with climate change. • Proposing carbon peaking energy system to achieve the carbon peak goal. • Proposed carbon-neutral energy system to achieve carbon neutrality goal. • The increased costs of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutral were studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area is a significant carbon emission center. The region's early achievement of peak carbon targets is critical to the nation's achievement of peak carbon targets. In this paper, it is proposed to use different orders of grey models to classify into three scenarios. Based on three scenarios, the grey multivariate convolutional model with new information priority accumulation is adopted to predict carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and select the scenario suitable for local development. The results show that: (1) The Beijing region has already achieved peak carbon, the Tianjin region may not reach its peak carbon target by 2030, and the Hebei region is expected to reach its peak carbon target by 2030. (2) The high rate of carbon emission reduction scenario will greatly improve the air quality of Beijing. The low-speed growth carbon emission scenario is more in line with the future development of Tianjin city. The low-rate carbon reduction scenario is more in line with the synergistic governance of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Hebei Province. (3) Beijing's population policy in the most recent years has been conducive to improving the local environment. Tianjin's medium-term population policy is more in line with the local area. Hebei's medium-term industrial structure reform is favorable to local development. • Grey correlation analysis is used to analyze the factors affected carbon emissions in a region. • The factors with high correlation are predicted by using grey prediction models of different orders. • The high rate of carbon emission reduction scenario will greatly improve the air quality of Beijing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To support high-quality carbon peaking, a scenario analysis of carbon peaking pathways according to an industrial chain perspective considering both material and part production needs exploring. As a critical segment in the aluminum industrial chain, aluminum casting industry was focused on in this paper. A bottom-up scenario analysis approach was proposed for the carbon emission simulation of China's aluminum casting industry, including: (1) a carbon emission assessment model based on material flow analysis and life-cycle assessment, (2) key influence factor selection and variation scenario prediction, (3) static and dynamic scenario analysis, and (4) driving factor decomposition analysis. Key findings are as follows: (1) China's aluminum casting industry accounted for about 1.1% of the national carbon emissions in 2020; (2) the production stage accounted for around 15% of the total carbon emissions of China's aluminum casting industry in 2020; (3) carbon peaking probabilities before 2030 for the static and dynamic scenario analysis are around 60% and 35%, respectively; and (4) the carbon peaking result differences in whether considering the production stage are about 20% for the static simulation and average 40% for the dynamic simulation. These findings effectively support the formulation of a high-quality carbon peaking pathway. • A bottom-up approach of scenario analysis was proposed for carbon peaking pathways. • Carbon emission assessment model was built with corresponding inventory data. • Static and dynamic scenario analyses of carbon emissions were compared. • Decomposition and sensitivity analysis of driving factors were conducted. • Production stage accounted for around 15% of the total carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the guidance of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", "ecological priority" and "green development" have become the popular consensus, and the financial regulatory level continuously guides financial institutions to increase investment in green and low carbon projects. In the field of green financial supervision in China, due to imperfect systems and poor adaptability, financial risks are often difficult to control within a reasonable range, which has had a significant impact on financial supervision and management. This article aimed to optimize the green financial regulatory information system under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Firstly, this article analyzed the concept and background of green finance regulation; then, an investigation was conducted on the construction of the green finance service information system, and a green finance information system supervision plan was established. Finally, data collection and analysis were conducted, and the supervision of the green finance information system was carried out using a standard genetic algorithm based on a fuzzy evaluation matrix. This article used a genetic algorithm to optimize the green financial regulatory information system, and selected 500 people to evaluate the use of the system before and after the optimization. The proportion of very satisfied people increased from 11.2% to 19.2%; the proportion of satisfied people increased from 17.2% to 37.6%; the proportion of people who were very dissatisfied decreased from 14.4% to 3.6%. The experiment in this article showed that the optimized system could operate more stably, and the process was more reasonable. The statistical analysis ability was significantly enhanced, and the functions were more comprehensive. This suggests that the system could better regulate the development of green finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase in energy demand, environmental issues such as carbon emissions are becoming more and more prominent. China will scale its intended nationally determined contributions by adopting more vigorous policies and measures. China aims to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The current challenge and priority of China's high-quality development is to ensure a harmonious balance between the ecological environment and the economy. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project passes through Beijing, Tianjin, Henan, and Hebei, which were chosen as the study sites. The carbon emission data was from the China Carbon Emission Database 2000–2019. Decoupling modeling using statistical yearbook data from four provinces and municipalities. KMO and Bartlett's test used SPSS 27 software. The selection of indicators was based on relevance. Analyses were performed using the extended STIRPAT model and ridge regression. Moreover, projections of carbon peaks in the study area for 2020–2035 under different rates of change were simulated by the scenario analysis method. The results show that: (1) The decoupling analysis of the four provinces and cities from 2000-2019 gradually shifts to strong decoupling; (2) Resident population, energy structure, and secondary industry as a proportion of GDP significantly impact carbon emissions; (3) From 2000–2035, Beijing and Henan experienced carbon peaks. The peak time in Beijing was 96.836 million tons in 2010. The peak time in Henan was 654.1004 million tons in 2011; (4) There was no peak in Hebei from 2000–2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the changes in the spatial structure of China's economic development, urban clusters have become the primary carriers of China's regional economy and green growth. We used annual data from 2010 to 2021 to study the carbon emission characteristics and carbon reduction pathways of 36 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region. Firstly, based on the decoupling elasticity coefficient and carbon intensity index, the researchers divided the cities in the Yangtze River Delta into six types of carbon emissions. Then, the STIRPAT model was used to regress the panel data of different carbon emission types for 11 years, analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions, and develop differentiated carbon emission reduction paths for cities with six carbon emission types. According to the results, the cities of Type I need to accelerate low-carbon technology innovation; the cities of Type II need to improve energy efficiency and strengthen low-carbon technology research and development; the cities of Type V need to suppress foreign investment in high-energy consumption and high-emission projects in the local area; the cities of Type VI need to accelerate the process of new urbanization and optimize industrial structure. However, the researchers found that the cities of Types III and IV have not yet received effective emission reduction pathways, and their emission reduction policies and measures need to be further studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, the power sector must undergo a profound transition to achieve the decarbonization development targets. Various roadmaps are implemented, but only from a macro perspective, lacking the consideration of the electricity market rules. In this paper, we develop and present a market-driven generation and transmission expansion planning (MGTEP) model considering the effectiveness of the electricity market. Specifically, generation and transmission companies incorporate hourly market trading and annual capacity investment into strategic decisions to maximize their profits, with the supply function equilibrium model to analyze bidding behaviors. An equivalent quadratic programming formulation is deployed to solve the trilevel MGTEP model. Meanwhile, the MGTEP model is coupled with decarbonization policies to support the state and federal government in assessing energy transition strategies. We implement the MGTEP model with carbon emission allowance and carbon tax policies for the southern China electricity market to achieve carbon peaking by 2030. Carbon emission allowance adopts an intensity-based cap based on generation companies' historical output. The case study results show that 50 % carbon emission allowance or 400 CNY/t carbon tax is required but with several drawbacks, including unsatisfactory decarbonization effect, excessive economic sacrifice, etc. Finally, the case study is extended to dual-track policies with different combinations of policies. An optimal combination is 70 % carbon emission allowance and 160 CNY/t carbon tax. In this case, the power sector's carbon dioxide emissions and electricity prices in the southern China electricity market would increase to 554.6 Mt and 864.34 CNY/MWh in 2030, respectively, along with a carbon price of 850 CNY/t.

To improve the energy utilization rate and reduce the pollution of the port, the Huanghua Port uses technological innovation to enter carbon neutrality is proposed. According to the study of the working characteristics of a three-phase asynchronous motor, the copper loss and iron consumption of the motor are reduced, permanent magnets are embedded in the rotor to generate a magnetic field directly, and the kinetic energy and potential energy of mechanical operation are converted to power generation and recycled, and the braking power generation characteristics of the motor are used to complete power recovery. The tension of the upper and lower sides of the belt before it starts to rotate is equal, and the tensioning force should meet the starting requirements, and the working section of the belt carrying goods horizontally is divided and calculated according to the evenly distributed rollers until it runs at a uniform speed. According to its power consumption, calculate the cost of using an auxiliary generator to generate and connect electricity, use the power supply to supply the power demand, let the motor run in the rated load area as much as possible, reduce the voltage, and reduce the motor subway consumption, to improve the efficiency of the motor and realize the green energy saving of the port. The analysis of the results shows that: through this paper technical innovation of the whole process of all equipment comprehensive optimization, the port process line efficiency increased by 17.5% on average, equivalent energy saving of nearly 17%, the amount of work using time more reasonable, to ensure that the quality of work does not decline while reducing the waste of power resources, thus affecting the port efficiency improvement.

China's ‘dual carbon’ strategy is of strategic importance in leading global climate governance and promoting China's high-quality and green economic development. Cities are the centres of human activities. However, these are also places where high energy consumption and high carbon emissions are concentrated. This study selected data from 192 small and medium-sized cities in mainland China for the period 2000–2020. It classified these into seven categories using the K-means clustering method, calculated the decoupling status of different types of small and medium-sized cities based on the Tapio decoupling index, and analysed the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in various types of small and medium-sized cities based on the EKC curve theory. Finally, the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model was used to classify and predict the time required to achieve carbon peaking for seven types of small and medium-sized cities. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The development status of small and medium-sized cities shows a ‘geese echelon pattern’. New dynamic small and medium-sized urban areas may reach peak carbon emissions first, while resource-based small and medium-sized urban areas may be the last to do so. (2) The decoupling of carbon emissions from industrial development in small and medium-sized cities has not been completed. This manifests mainly through the states of declining decoupling, absolute decoupling, and strong negative decoupling. (3) A significant inverted U-shaped relationship exists between economic development and carbon emissions in these cities. (4) These cities may have the disadvantage of premature or excessive de-industrialisation. Additionally, these generally have an inefficient and expansionary economic development status. Therefore, this study contended for a more robust integration of a radical political economy and ecological economics to support the development of such cities in China. The paper proposes differentiated development paths and fundamental recommendations for small and medium-sized cities in the implementation of the ‘double carbon’ strategy. The intention is to provide theoretical guidance and implications for promoting green and low-carbon development in urban and rural areas and for the early achievement of the strategy in China.

In 2023, China’s crude steel production amount reached 1.019 billion tons, and the energy consumption of China’s steel industry amount reached 561 million tons of coal. China’s steel industry, with its dominant reliance on coal for energy and the primary use of blast furnaces and converters in production processes, as well as its massive output, has become the main field for achieving China’s “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality” goals. Firstly, this article summarizes the current production status of the steel industry and the situation of carbon emissions in the steel industry. Secondly, it discusses the dual-carbon policies based on the national and steel industry levels and outlines the future directions for China’s steel industry. Subsequently, it analyzes the current state of research and application of mature and emerging low-carbon technology in China’s steel industry and details the low-carbon plans of China’s steel companies using the low-carbon technology roadmaps of two representative steel companies as examples. Finally, the article gives policy suggestions for the further carbon reduction of China’s steel industry. The purpose of this paper is to show the efforts and contributions of China’s steel industry to the early realization of its “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality” goals.

Energy finance is an important market instrument for carbon peaking, which may influence the energy vulnerability. This paper explores the impact of two energy finance policies combined with renewable energy subsidy (RES) on energy vulnerability under different carbon peaking scenarios. To this end, the total fossil energy and renewable energy consumption under different carbon peaking scenarios are calculated using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Then, the sector-level energy use rights are allocated through the game equity fixed cost allocation model which considers equity, game and efficiency principles. Combining the consumption thresholds of renewable energy, the impacts of energy finance policies on energy vulnerability under different carbon peaking scenarios are investigated using an energy finance CGE model. The main results are as follows. (1) In the long run, the earlier the peaking time, the lower the energy vulnerability. (2) Under each peaking scenario, no energy finance policy implemented can minimize energy vulnerability before carbon peaking. After the peaking year, the implementation of energy finance policies can reduce energy vulnerability more significantly. (3) Among the three types of policy coupling , energy finance policies combined with RES can minimize national energy vulnerability and buffer the impact of energy finance policies on GDP. [Display omitted] • The earlier the peaking time, the lower the energy vulnerability composite index. • Energy finance helps reduce more energy vulnerability under earlier carbon peaking. • Base scenario would minimize energy vulnerability before carbon peaking. • RES embedded in energy finance can minimize national energy vulnerability. • Combining RES with energy finance buffers the negative impact on GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government is actively pursuing a low-carbon development model with a clear target of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030. This study presents a project-based perspective on CO2 emissions from the industrial sector in the city. The article quantifies and analyzes the project planning by including the entire gross industrial production value, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure, and CO2 emission coefficient of the industrial sector's CO2 emissions decomposition model. Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis were coupled to evaluate how the city's industrial sector could achieve its peak carbon targets by industry. The expected range of CO2 emissions from the city's industrial sector in 2025, 2030, and 2035, based on the project plan and policies in place, is projected to be between 65.64 and 69.26 Mt, 72.13–78.48 Mt, and 69.32–76.62 Mt. However, the simulations show that there are still considerable uncertainties in reaching the peak carbon target in 2030, necessitating greater government efforts. To achieve the 2030 goal for the city's industrial sector, the paper recommends that the government increase the baseline criteria for industrial structure, energy intensity, and energy structure. This study provides scientific project planning guidance for Chinese cities to successfully achieve the 2030 goal.

Wind power is the most promising renewable energy source after hydropower because of its mature technology and low price, and has great potential for carbon emission reduction. Long-term forecasts of its power generation can help power companies to develop operational plans, grid configuration and power dispatch, and can also provide a basis for the government to formulate energy and environmental policies. However, due to the characteristics of China's monsoon climate and wind power industry development, wind power generation data are characterized by nonlinear cycles and small data volume, which makes accurate prediction more difficult. To this end, this paper develops a new prediction model and applies it to the long-term prediction of wind power generation in China, and proposes some targeted policy recommendations based on the prediction results to promote the development of China's wind power industry.

With the increasing severity of climate change, the unevenness of economic development has resulted in the heterogeneity of carbon peaking in different regions. Under the dual‐carbon target strategy, the peak research in China's less developed provinces is significant. This study uses the emission factor method to calculate the carbon emission inventory of an economically underdeveloped province (Sichuan) and 15 major cities from 2010 to 2020. The carbon emissions in the Sichuan province showed a fluctuating trend, and the emission intensity decreased year by year. This study analyzes the decoupling effect of carbon emissions and GDP gold content (GDPgc). Sichuan's economy and carbon emissions have not been strongly decoupled. Finally, under three scenarios, it forecasts the peak carbon emissions in Sichuan province. Sichuan province will peak in 2029 (361.74 million tons) under the simultaneous peak scenario. This study provides an important reference for formulating and implementing energy‐saving and emission‐reduction policies in relatively poor regions. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a designated national low-carbon pilot city, Nanjing faces the challenge of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions while experiencing rapid economic growth. This study developed a localized Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model specifically for Nanjing and constructed four different development scenarios. By utilizing the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition, the Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficient, and comparing the emission reduction effects of individual measures and their cross-elasticity of carbon reduction, this study investigated the key factors and their carbon reduction path characteristics in Nanjing toward its carbon peak target by 2030. The results indicate that: (i) Nanjing could reach its peak carbon target of about 3.48 million tons by 2025 if carbon reduction measures are strengthened; (ii) The main elements influencing Nanjing's carbon peak include controlling industrial energy consumption, restructuring the industry, promoting the construction of a new power system, and developing green transportation; (iii) Controlling industrial energy consumption and changing industrial structure have a greater impact on reducing carbon emissions than other measures, and both have a synergistic effect. Therefore, Nanjing should prioritize these two strategies as the most effective methods to reduce carbon emissions. Additionally, to slow down the growth of urban carbon emissions, policies aimed at reducing the energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy consumption should be formulated. For instance, the integration and innovation of green industries within the city region, such as new energy vehicles, new energy materials, and big data, should be accelerated, and the proportion of clean energy consumption in urban areas should be increased. The LEAP (Nanjing) model has successfully explored Nanjing's low-carbon pathway and provided policy guidance for the optimal transformation of industrial cities and early carbon peaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The manufacture of products in the industrial sector is the principal source of carbon emissions. To slow the progression of global warming and advance low-carbon economic development, it is essential to develop methods for accurately predicting carbon emissions from industrial sources and imposing reasonable controls on those emissions. We select a support vector machine to predict industrial carbon emissions from 2021 to 2040 by comparing the predictive power of the BP (backpropagation) neural network and the support vector machine. To reduce noise in the input variables for BP neural network and support vector machine models, we use a random forest technique to filter the factors affecting industrial carbon emissions. The statistical results suggest that BP's neural network is insufficiently adaptable to small sample sizes, has a relatively high error rate, and produces inconsistent predictions of industrial carbon emissions. The support vector machine produces excellent fitting results for tiny sample data, with projected values of industrial carbon dioxide emissions that are astonishingly close to the actual values. In 2030, carbon emissions from the industrial sector will have reached their maximum level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study linking the two economic and social phenomena of rural labor force migration and energy transition can help analyze the underlying causes of rural "Energy Poverty". However, how off-farm employment affects household low-carbon energy consumption and its potential mechanisms requires further research. Using 1351 sampled rural households from the "Rural Energy, Population Transfer and Well-being" survey in 2018 and 2021 to explore response mechanisms through which off-farm employment can influence low-carbon energy intensity. Utilizing the multivariate regression, Sobel test, and moderating effect test, the results demonstrate that off-farm employment, including short-term and long-term off-farm employment, significantly increases the intensity of low-carbon energy use among rural households. Specifically, long-term off-farm employment tends to have a greater positive contribution to the low-carbon energy intensity than short-term off-farm employment. Furthermore, off-farm employment can affect household low-carbon energy intensity through the total income, and effect of the surrounding people in the off-farm employment process also increases their consumption intensity. The research reveals that the rural energy revolution under the constraints of "Carbon Neutral" and "Carbon Peak" should relate to the off-farm development of rural households to achieve "Precise Energy Poverty Alleviation". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and ecological environment destruction have become global problems that cannot be ignored. As the largest developing country, China faces the reality of emission reduction from the international community and the pressure of domestic environmental protection. Based on the policy process of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China, the allocation and use of carbon peak policy tools in China are analyzed by using the Multiple-Streams Approach, and some insights are proposed, hoping to provide some thinking for related research. The initiation of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy agenda is inseparable from concerns about Problem Streams, discussions on policy streams, and the promotion of Political Streams, as well as the help of policy entrepreneurs. In the future, in the process of continuously promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policies, China should be problem-oriented, continuously optimize policy guidelines, continue to deepen the political environment and promote comprehensive green transformation and sustainable economic and social development with "Double carbon" policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catalytic membrane reactors have the advantages of allowing the selective removal of products, avoiding the separation procedure of powder catalysts from the reaction mixture, intensifying the diffusion of reactants in the catalytic region, and integrating different reactions in one unit. Catalytic membrane reactors have been widely applied in the fields related to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, including the capture and utilization of carbon dioxide, hydrogen production, and hydrogenation reaction. This review summarizes the design and fabrication of catalytic membrane reactors, with the focus on the capture and efficient utilization of carbon dioxide, hydrogen production and efficient liquid-phase hydrogenation. The design of membrane materials, catalyst materials and catalytic membranes, and the operation of catalytic membrane reactors are discussed respectively. Finally, the perspectives and future challenges of catalytic membrane reactors for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are forecasted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality, the significance of green development, including the development of green finance, has gained increasing attention. It is important to explore the factors and pathways that have impacts on the progress of green finance; however, these are not clearly defined. In this paper, using data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in China, we investigate the factors that drives the advancement of green finance in China. We utilize the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) technique to scrutinize the effects of economic development, industrial structure, government investment in environmental protection and green innovation capability on the progress of green finance development. The results show that the development of green finance is not solely dependent on the four aforementioned conditions alone. However, according to the group analysis, we find three pathways towards achieving the development of green finance, among which the conditions show relationships of complementarity and substitutability. In order to promote the growth of green finance in China, the local government should leverage the distinctive characteristics of the regions by the method of encouraging green patents, developing clean and green projects and strengthening the regional innovation capacity. Furthermore, the government should play a leading role in enhancing the promotion of green patent applications. Finally, it is essential for each region to conduct a comprehensive analysis of their local resources and devise differentiated strategies for the development of green finance.

In order to deal with the increasing environmental challenges, the high carbon-emitting transport system keeps transitioning to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This paper addresses the calculation of carbon emission estimation and identifying carbon reduction driving factors for the hinterland-based container intermodal network. Firstly, an analysis of the carbon emissions composition of the hinterland-based container intermodal networks is conducted. Furthermore, a carbon emission estimation model for the hinterland-based container intermodal network is developed. Subsequently, taking the Shanghai port and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) hinterland as a case, we estimate the carbon emission of the hinterland-based container intermodal network under the Well-to-Wheel (WTW) and the Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) modes in the past ten years. Finally, the critical driving factors are identified by sensitivity analysis, and the variation of carbon emissions under different scenarios with carbon reduction policies are analyzed. The results indicate that the transportation structure and the fuel choices affect network emissions reductions significantly. In the current policy-based scenario, the WTW mode achieves the carbon peaking between 2030 and 2035, while the TTW mode peaks earlier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With concerns about global warming and energy security, people are reducing fossil fuel use and turning to clean energy technologies. Mineral resources are used as materials for various energy technologies, and with the development of clean energy technologies, the demand for mineral resources will increase. China is a large country with various mineral resources, but its structural supply problem is severe. For China to reach the targets of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, they have set specific milestones for developing each clean energy industry; thus, the demand for mineral resources in clean energy will increase. We first summarise the mineral resources supply for China's development of clean energy technologies. We analyse the demand for various mineral resources in specific clean energy technology sectors under the stated policies scenario and sustainable development scenario through scenario setting. Finally, we combine current domestic mineral resource reserves and overseas import channels to analyse China's mineral resource supply and demand for developing the clean energy industry. Our results show that the surge in clean energy generation and electric vehicle ownership in China between 2020 and 2050 will lead to a significant increase in demand for mineral resources for these technologies and a shortage in the supply of some mineral resources. In particular, the supply of copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium will be a severe constraint for clean energy development. We also find that secondary recycling of power battery materials in the electric vehicle sector could alleviate China's resource constraints. The findings of our study provide a better understanding of the kinds of mineral elements that are in short supply on the path of clean energy development in China under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets and the future channels that can be used to increase the supply of minerals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas emissions in China have been increasing in line with its energy consumption and economic growth. Major means for energy-related greenhouse gases mitigation in the foreseeable future are transition to less carbon intensive energy supplies and structural changes in energy consumption. In this paper, a bottom-up model is built to examine typical projected scenarios for energy supply and demand, with which trends of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 can be analyzed. Results show that low-carbon technologies remain essential contributors to reducing emissions and altering emissions trends up to 2050. By pushing the limit of current practicality, emissions reduction can reach 20 to 28 percent and the advent of carbon peaking could shift from 2040 to 2030. In addition, the effect of electrification at end-use sectors is studied. Results show that electrifying transport could reduce emissions and bring the advent of carbon peaking forward, but the effect is less significant compared with low-carbon technologies. Moreover, it implies the importance of decarbonizing power supply before electrifying end-use sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the building sector is an important component of China's "dual carbon" goals. In recent years, the country's direct carbon emissions in the building sector have hit a plateau while the total emissions still grow rapidly. Besides, the building materials for construction and refrigerants leaked during buildings' operation also result in greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve the targets set for future low-carbon development, the building sector should feature "sufficient demand, decarbonized structure and flexible load." According to the analysis of the emission reduction approaches adopted by different sectors, China's building sector should make a ceaseless effort to promote building energy conservation, improve electrification, and load flexibility, reform the energy system in rural areas, optimize the heating structure in northern China's urban areas, as well as reduce the emissions during construction and the non-CO2 gas emissions. In the 14th Five-Year period, it is suggested to clarify the total energy consumption and carbon emission targets, adjust the energy structure more vigorously, and draw up more measures to reduce the emissions related to construction and refrigerant leakage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the full consideration of both domestic and global environments and conditions, the adherence to the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets, and the comprehensive weighing of pros and cons, the Chinese government has made a major strategic decision to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, which is crucial to the overall green transformation of the economy and society and the long-term benefits of the Chinese nation. With the new energy revolution and energy mix diversification driven by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, nonfossil energy sources centered on photovoltaic energy will gradually dominate the energy mix, while the status of electricity and hydrogen energy will be significantly enhanced and the consumption of coal and petroleum will decline significantly. Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are both challenges and opportunities for China. Specific challenges are embodied in the large pressure of economic and energy restructuring, the rising manufacturing costs, the difficulties in withdrawing coal-fired power stations, the possibility of unstable grid operations due to large-scale integration of photovoltaic and wind power into the power distribution network, and the supply risks of key metals, while specific opportunities are emerging in the strong competitiveness of photovoltaic and wind power equipment, lower dependence on foreign petroleum and gas supply and accelerated low-carbon green transformation. China should strengthen the top-level design of the path to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, encourage innovation of green low-carbon technologies, accelerate economic and energy restructuring, strictly restrict the construction of new high-emission and energy-intensive projects, and steadily promote the adjustment and withdrawal of the existing high-emission and energy-intensive projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The successively proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have not only set new goals for the green and low-carbon development of China’s economy, but also demonstrated China’s further determination and sense of responsibility for a greater contribution to address global climate change. Considering the importance of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the course of achieving the Second Centenary Goal (1949-2049), it is necessary for China to make scientific planning for the roadmap of carbon emission reduction, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality to ensure building a great modern socialist country under carbon constraints. More specifically, the optimization and realignment of energy structure, industrial structure, production and consumption structure, the rational planning of afforestation, and the vigorous development of global carbon emissions trading will be the core strategies for boosting green and low-carbon development of China’s economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous increase in the number of vehicles, the proportion of carbon emissions from road traffic in cities has significantly increased, putting pressure on the overall carbon emission reduction of cities The implementation of low-carbon transportation has, therefore, become crucial to urban emission reductions. Based on the situation of vehicles in Chengdu, this study uses the LEAP model to construct a road traffic development scenario in Chengdu from 2020 to 2025. The research focuses on common greenhouse gases that contribute to carbon emissions such as CO2, N2O, and CH4 from motor vehicles. With current policies being considered, we simulate and evaluate energy consumption and carbon emissions under two energy-saving and emission reduction scenarios: low carbon (LC) and strengthen low carbon (SLC). The results show that carbon emissions significantly improve under the LC scenario, and that the carbon emissions of the road traffic of Chengdu will peak before 2030 under the SLC scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global climate change, geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality. This paper discusses the main problems, opportunities, and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality, as well as China’s response to them. The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories: (1) Carbon emission reduction technology (natural gas hydrate, geothermal, hot dry rock, nuclear energy, hydropower, wind energy, solar energy, hydrogen energy); (2) carbon sequestration technology (carbon capture and storage, underground space utilization); (3) key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization (raw materials for energy transformation, carbon reduction technology). Therefore, geosciences and geological technologies are needed: First, actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas, geothermal energy, hydropower, hot dry rock, and key energy minerals, and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas; the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection, carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures, and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters; the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences, organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources, carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory, and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines. The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research. In the future, it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects, enhance the ability of climate adaptation, and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Since September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping, who is also the general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, has reiterated China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on many major international occasions and at many important conferences of the CPC Central Committee. The transition to carbon neutrality is becoming a systemic revolution concerning whether China’s high-quality economic and social development and sustainable prosperity can be achieved. Incorporating carbon peaking and carbon neutrality well into overall economic and social development framework and ecological civilization construction, setting out the timetable, clarifying the roadmap, and proposing specific action plans have become a global concern. Through the analysis of international situations and China’s national strategies, and the application of Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), this paper explores China’s pathways to carbon peaking and neutrality, and puts forward recommendations for high-quality development featuring low emissions.

Under the development path of green circular economy with the goal of “double carbon”, the highquality development of forestry economy is an important driving force for tapping the new momentum of green transformation of industrial structure. Based on panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2018, this paper constructs a two-way fixed-effects model to explore the drivers of high-quality development of the forestry economy, using forestry economic output value as the explanatory variable. The study found that forestry protection efforts, average forestry salary levels, forestry employees, annual afforestation area, technology level and regional industrial structure significantly contributed to forestry economic development. Therefore, China should formulate targeted forestry development policies based on the drivers of the forestry economy, so as to support and ensure the quality development of the forestry economy.