Scenario-based analysis for industrial project planning in the context of carbon peaking: Case study city, China

The Chinese government is actively pursuing a low-carbon development model with a clear target of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030. This study presents a project-based perspective on CO2 emissions from the industrial sector in the city. The article quantifies and analyzes the project planning by including the entire gross industrial production value, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure, and CO2 emission coefficient of the industrial sector's CO2 emissions decomposition model. Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis were coupled to evaluate how the city's industrial sector could achieve its peak carbon targets by industry. The expected range of CO2 emissions from the city's industrial sector in 2025, 2030, and 2035, based on the project plan and policies in place, is projected to be between 65.64 and 69.26 Mt, 72.13–78.48 Mt, and 69.32–76.62 Mt. However, the simulations show that there are still considerable uncertainties in reaching the peak carbon target in 2030, necessitating greater government efforts. To achieve the 2030 goal for the city's industrial sector, the paper recommends that the government increase the baseline criteria for industrial structure, energy intensity, and energy structure. This study provides scientific project planning guidance for Chinese cities to successfully achieve the 2030 goal.