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Climate warming has triggered shifts in plant distributions, resulting in changes within communities, characterized by an increase in warm‐demanding species and a decrease in cold‐adapted species – referred to as thermophilization. Researchers conventionally rely on co‐occurrence data from vegetation assemblages to examine these community dynamics. Despite the increasing availability of presence‐only data in recent decades, their potential has largely remained unexplored due to concerns about their reliability. Our study aimed to determine whether climate‐induced changes in community dynamics, as inferred from presence‐only data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), corresponded with those derived from co‐occurrence plot data. To assess the differences between these datasets, we computed a community temperature index (CTI) using a transfer function, weighted‐averaging partial least squares regression (WA‐PLS). We calibrated the transfect function model based on the species–temperature relationship using data before recent climate warming. Then we assessed the differences in CTI and examined the temporal trend in thermophilization. In a preliminary analysis, we assessed the performance of this calibration using three datasets: 1) Norwegian co‐occurrence data, 2) presence‐only data from a broader European region organized into pseudo‐plots (potentially capturing a larger part of the species niches), and 3) a combined dataset merging 1) and 2). The transfer function including the combined dataset performed best. Subsequently, we compared the CTI for the co‐occurrence plots paired up spatially and temporally with presence‐only pseudo‐plots. The results demonstrated that presence‐only data can effectively evaluate species assemblage responses to climate warming, with consistent CTI and thermophilization values to what was found for the co‐occurrence data. Employing presence‐only data for evaluating community responses opens up better spatial and temporal resolution and much more detailed analyses of such responses. Our results therefore outline how a large amount of presence‐only data can be used to enhance our understanding of community dynamics in a warmer world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential distribution of crops will be impacted by climate change, but there is limited research on potential wheat distributions under specific global warming targets. This study employed the Maxent model to predict the potential distribution of wheat under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets based on data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) multimodel ensemble, and the effect of global warming on wheat planting suitability was analyzed. Our results indicated global warming would significantly change wheat planting suitability. Over half of the areas experienced changes in wheat planting suitability under two warming targets, and the effect became more pronounced with increasing temperatures. Additionally, global warming might promote wheat planting in more regions. The area with an increase in wheat planting suitability was observed to be 9% higher than those experiencing a decrease on average. Moreover, global warming could exacerbate the disparity between global wheat supply and demand in countries/regions. Traditional wheat-producing countries/regions are poised to benefit from the warming effects of climate change, while less developed and wheat import-dependent countries/regions may face greater challenges in achieving wheat self-sufficiency. To address this potential challenge, the promotion and inter-regional exchange of agronomic technologies, and the development of more rational trade standards are urgently needed. Since socioeconomic factors have a significant impact on wheat cultivation, further investigation is required to determine how the wheat planting distribution may change in the future under the combined impact of climate change, supply-demand relationship, and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leucobryum aduncum is a moss species reported in many Southeast Asian regions, often found in forests with a high humidity. Climate change may impact the future distribution of this species. This study aimed to model the current distribution and predict the impact of climate change on L. aduncum distribution in the next 50 years across Southeast Asia. In the process, relevant climate variables in the distribution of the species were also identified. The occurrence data of this species with current and future climate models from CMIP6 under moderate (SSP2) scenarios were used to predict current and future L. aduncum distributions. Under the current climate, the predicted suitable areas for L. aduncum included most mountainous areas. However, many Southeast Asian areas showed a lower probability of finding this species in the next 50 years. The distribution area of this species will dramatically decrease by 50.16% in the current area. The most important ecological variables included the "mean temperature of the driest quarter" and the "annual temperature range". This study suggests the possible impacts of an increased temperature and the scale of climate change on the distribution of sensitive plants like bryophytes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Many plant species are predicted to migrate poleward in response to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to quantify future suitable habitats, but they often neglect soil properties, despite the importance of soil for plant fitness. As soil properties often change along latitudinal gradients, higher‐latitude soils might be more or less suitable than average conditions within the current ranges of species, thereby accelerating or slowing potential poleward migration.In this study, we built three SDMs – one with only climate predictors, one with only soil predictors, and one with both – for each of 1870 plant species in Eastern North America, in order to investigate the relative importance of soil properties in determining plant distributions and poleward shifts under climate change.While climate variables were the most important predictors, soil properties also had a substantial influence on continental‐scale plant distributions. Under future climate scenarios, models including soil predicted much smaller northward shifts in distributions than climate‐only models (c. 40% reduction).Our findings strongly suggest that high‐latitude soils are likely to impede ongoing plant migration, and they highlight the necessity of incorporating soil properties into models and predictions for plant distributions and migration under environmental change. See also the Commentary on this article by Zettlemoyer, 241: 5–6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phelypaea tournefortii (Orobanchaceae) primarily occurs in the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and N Iran) and Turkey. This perennial, holoparasitic herb is achlorophyllous and possesses one of the most intense red flowers among all plants worldwide. It occurs as a parasite on the roots of several Tanacetum (Asteraceae) species and prefers steppe and semi-arid habitats. Climate change may affect holoparasites both directly through effects on their physiology and indirectly as a consequence of its effects on their host plants and habitats. In this study, we used the ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the possible effects of climate change on P. tournefortii and to evaluate the effect of its parasitic relationships with two preferred host species on the chances of survival of this species under global warming. We used four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and three different simulations (CNRM, GISS-E2, INM). We modeled the species' current and future distribution using the maximum entropy method implemented in MaxEnt using seven bioclimatic variables and species occurrence records (Phelypaea tournefortii – 63 records, Tanacetum argyrophyllum – 40, Tanacetum chiliophyllum – 21). According to our analyses, P. tournefortii will likely contract its geographical range remarkably. In response to global warming, the coverage of the species' suitable niches will decrease by at least 34%, especially in central and southern Armenia, Nakhchivan in Azerbaijan, northern Iran, and NE Turkey. In the worst-case scenario, the species will go completely extinct. Additionally, the studied plant's hosts will lose at least 36% of currently suitable niches boosting the range contraction of P. tournefortii. The GISS-E2 scenario will be least damaging, while the CNRM will be most damaging to climate change for studied species. Our study shows the importance of including ecological data in niche models to obtain more reliable predictions of the future distribution of parasitic plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep-time palynological studies are necessary to evaluate plant and fungal distribution under warmer-than-present scenarios such as those of the Middle Miocene. Previous palynological studies from southern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica (SMS), have provided unique documentation for Neogene environments in the Ross Sea region during a time of pronounced global warming. The present study builds on these studies and provides a new climate reconstruction using the previously published SMS pollen and plant spore data. Additionally, 44 SMS samples were reanalyzed with a focus on the fungal fraction of the section to evaluate the fungal distribution under warmer than present conditions. The probability-based climate reconstruction technique (CREST) was applied to provide a new plant-based representation of regional paleoclimate for this Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) locality. CREST reconstructs a paleoclimate that is warmer and significantly wetter than present in SMS during the MCO, with mean annual precipitation reconstructed at 1147 mm yr -1 (95 % confidence range: 238–2611 mm yr -1) and a maximum mean annual temperature of 10.3 ∘ C (95 % confidence range: 2.0–20.2 ∘ C) for the warmest intervals of the MCO. The CREST reconstruction fits within the Cfb Köppen–Geiger climate class during the MCO of SMS. This new reconstruction agrees with previous reconstructions using various geochemical proxies. The fungal palynological analyses yielded surprising results, with only a single morphotype recovered, in low abundance, with concentrations ranging up to 199 fungi per gram of dried sediment. The taxa present belongs to the Apiosporaceae family and are known to be adapted to a wide range of climate and environmental conditions. As fungi are depauperate members of the SMS MCO palynofloras and because the one morphotype recovered is cosmopolitan, using the fungi record to confirm a narrow Köppen–Geiger climate class is impossible. Overall, the study demonstrates refinement of plant-based paleoclimatic reconstructions and sheds light on the limited presence of fungi during the MCO in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite sometimes strong codependencies of insect herbivores and plants, the responses of individual taxa to accelerating climate change are typically studied in isolation. For this reason, biotic interactions that potentially limit species in tracking their preferred climatic niches are ignored. Here, we chose butterflies as a prominent representative of herbivorous insects to investigate the impacts of temperature changes and their larval host plant distributions along a 1.4‐km elevational gradient in the German Alps. Following a sampling protocol of 2009, we revisited 33 grassland plots in 2019 over an entire growing season. We quantified changes in butterfly abundance and richness by repeated transect walks on each plot and disentangled the direct and indirect effects of locally assessed temperature, site management, and larval and adult food resource availability on these patterns. Additionally, we determined elevational range shifts of butterflies and host plants at both the community and species level. Comparing the two sampled years (2009 and 2019), we found a severe decline in butterfly abundance and a clear upward shift of butterflies along the elevational gradient. We detected shifts in the peak of species richness, community composition, and at the species level, whereby mountainous species shifted particularly strongly. In contrast, host plants showed barely any change, neither in connection with species richness nor individual species shifts. Further, temperature and host plant richness were the main drivers of butterfly richness, with change in temperature best explaining the change in richness over time. We concluded that host plants were not yet hindering butterfly species and communities from shifting upwards. However, the mismatch between butterfly and host plant shifts might become a problem for this very close plant–herbivore relationship, especially toward higher elevations, if butterflies fail to adapt to new host plants. Further, our results support the value of conserving traditional extensive pasture use as a promoter of host plant and, hence, butterfly richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant abundance and distribution are regulated by subtle changes in ecological factors, which are becoming more frequent under global climate change. Species with a higher tolerance to such changes, especially during early lifecycle stages, are highly likely to endure climate change. This study compared the germination adaptability of Halopeplis amplexicaulis and H. perfoliata, which differ in life-form and grow in different environments. Optimal conditions, tolerances and the biochemical responses of seeds to osmotic stresses were examined. Seeds of H. perfoliata germinated in a wider range of temperature regimes and were more tolerant to osmotic stresses than H. amplexicaulis seeds. Neither NaCl nor PEG treatment invoked the H2O2 content in germinating seeds of the tested species. Consequently, unaltered, or even decreased activities of H2O2 detoxification enzymes and non-enzymatic antioxidants were observed in germinating seeds in response to the aforementioned stresses. High and comparable levels of recovery from isotonic treatments, alongside a lack of substantial oxidative damage indicated that the osmotic stress, rather than the ionic toxicity, may be responsible for the germination inhibition. Hence, rainy periods, linked to water availability, may act as a key determinant for germination and H. perfoliata could be less affected by global warming owing to better germinability under high temperatures compared with H. amplexicaulis. Such studies involving biochemical analysis coupled with the germination ecology of congeneric species, which differ in life-form and occurrence are scarce, therefore are important in understanding the impacts of global changes on species abundance/distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rheum nanum, a perennial herb, is a famous traditional Chinese medicinal plant that has great value in modern medicine. In order to determine the potential distribution of R. nanum in Asia, we specifically developed the potential distribution maps for three periods (current, 2050s: 2041–2060, and 2070s: 2061–2080) using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, and these were based on the current and future climate data under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). To predict the potential impacts of global warming, we measured the area of suitable habitats, habitat suitability changes, and habitat core changes. We found that bio16 (i.e., the precipitation of the wettest quarter) and bio1 (i.e., the annual mean temperature) were the most important climate factors that influenced the distribution of R. nanum. The areas of high suitable habitats (HH) and middle suitable habitats (MH) in the current period were 156,284.7 ± 0.99 km2 and 361,875.0 ± 3.61 km2, respectively. The areas of HH and MH in 2070RCP6.0 were 27,309.0 ± 0.35 km2 and 123,750 ± 2.36 km2, respectively. The ranges of 82.0–90.3° E, 43.8–46.5° N were the mostly degraded areas of the 2050s and 2070s, and RCP6.0 had a larger decrease in habitable area than that found in RCP2.6. All the HH cores shifted south, and the shift distance of HH in 2070RCP6.0 was 115.65 km. This study provides a feasible approach for efficiently utilizing low-number occurrences, and presents an important attempt at predicting the potential distribution of species based on a small sample size. This may improve our understanding of the impacts of global warming on plant distribution and could be useful for relevant agricultural decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses – affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod – shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early‐season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio‐temporal shifts from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cuscuta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant without leaves or roots, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of the parasitic plant C. chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential global distribution of C. chinensis, based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Results: The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37 °C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25,000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000 mm and from 2500 to 3500 mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 2000 mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20° N to 50° N. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960–1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5–1 increased by 0.0875 million km2; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960–1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5–1 decreased by 0.0759 million km2. The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and high suitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km2. Conclusion: Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management and control of C. chinensis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for implementing conservation strategies. Objective: We explain through potential distributions and changes in altitudinal variation, the possible impacts of climate change in an endangered micro-endemic rodent of Mexico with narrow altitudinal range, Heteromys nelsoni and a rodent with a wide distributional and altitudinal range, Heteromys goldmani. Methods: We obtained historical and current records of both Heteromys species. Potential distribution models were generated using Maxent, including altitudes for each species and bioclimatic layers. We determined the Extent of Occurrence and Area of Occupancy for H. nelsoni according to the criteria of the IUCN in order to generate information about its risk status. Results: The altitude is not a variable that determines a shift in the distribution caused by climate change. In contrast, the temperature and precipitation are important for the potential distribution of both Heteromys species. The future changes in climatic conditions could reduce the area of suitable habitat for both species. Conclusions: The distribution surface is not greater than 33.44 km2 for H. nelsoni. Therefore, is urgent to re-evaluate their conservation status by the IUCN, mainly in its B criterion, and to take specific actions for their conservation. We suggest the creation of a terrestrial protected area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alexander von Humboldt's Tableau Physique (1807) has been one of the most influential diagrams in the history of environmental sciences. In particular, detailed observations of the altitudinal distribution of plant species in the equatorial Andes, depicted on a cross-section of Mt. Chimborazo, allowed Humboldt to establish the concept of vegetation belt, thereby laying the foundations of biogeography. Surprisingly, Humboldt's original data have never been critically revisited, probably due to the difficulty of gathering and interpreting dispersed archives. By unearthing and analyzing overlooked historical documents, we show that the top section of the Tableau Physique, above the tree line, is an intuitive construct based on unverified and therefore partly false field data that Humboldt constantly tried to revise in subsequent publications. This finding has implications for the documentation of climate change effects in the tropical Andes. We found that Humboldt's primary plant data above tree line were mostly collected onMt. Antisana, not Chimborazo, which allows a comparison with current records. Our resurvey at Mt. Antisana revealed a 215- to 266-m altitudinal shift over 215 y. This estimate is about twice lower than previous estimates for the region but is consistent with the 10- to 12-m/decade upslope range shift observed worldwide. Our results show the cautious approach needed to interpret historical data and to use them as a resource for documenting environmental changes. They also profoundly renew our understanding of Humboldt's scientific thinking, methods, and modern relevance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light‐demanding and drought‐tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species‐specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2‐ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to −63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6–8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate change poses negative impacts on plant species, particularly for those of restricted ecology and distribution range. Rosa arabica Crép., an exclusive endemic species to Saint Catherine Protectorate in Egypt, has severely declined and become critically endangered in the last years. In this paper, we applied the maximum-entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to predict the current and future potential distribution of this species in order to provide a basis for its protection and conservation. In total, 32 field-based occurrence points and 22 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic and three topographic) were used to model the potential distribution area under current and two future representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. Annual temperature, annual precipitation and elevation were the key factors for the distribution of R. arabica. The response curves showed that this species prefers habitats with an annual temperature of 8.05–15.4 °C, annual precipitation of 36 to 120 mm and elevation range of 1571 to 2273 m a.s.l. Most of the potential current suitable conditions were located at the middle northern region of Saint Catherine. Prediction models under two future climate change scenarios displayed habitat range shifts through the disappearance of R. arabica in sites below 1500 m a.s.l., an altitudinal range contraction at 1500–2000 m and possible expansions towards higher elevation sites (2000–2500 m a.s.l.). Our findings can be used to define the high priority areas for reintroduction or for protection against the expected climate change impacts and future modifications. Highlights • MaxEnt modeling is a key guide for predicting current and future distribution of endangered species. • The ecological niche of Rosa arabica is mainly affected by annual temperature, annual precipitation and elevation. • R. arabica favors high elevated and cold moist sites within St. Catherine Protectorate of South Sinai in Egypt. • At global warming scenarios (CCSM4: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), R. arabica displayed habitat range shift. • Reinforcements of the extant populations and assisted migrations can be planned [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Global warming is predicted to shift distributions of mountain species upwards, driven by a release from climatic restrictions at their upper distribution limit and increased biotic pressure at their lower distribution limit. In alpine ecosystems, which are characterized by large microclimatic diversity and sparse vegetation cover, the relative importance of abiotic and biotic drivers for species distribution is poorly understood. To disentangle abiotic and biotic mechanisms affecting distributions of alpine species, we investigated how alpine plant species with differing elevational ranges and frequency trends over the past century differ in their microhabitat distribution, and how they respond to neighbouring vegetation. Location A total of 11 summits (2635-3410 m a.s.l.) in SE-Switzerland. Methods We quantified the microscale abundance of 12 species in relation to biogeographic (frequency trend, i.e., change in occurrences over the past century, and elevational range on summits) and local microhabitat characteristics (temperature, substrate type). We assessed species size traits in relation to neighbouring vegetation characteristics to investigate possible neighbour interactions. Results Species with increasing frequency on summits over the past century were most abundant on scree and warmer slopes. Species with negative or stable frequency trends on summits were more abundant on organic soil and colder slopes. The preferred microhabitats of the latter were rarest overall, decreased with increasing elevation, and had the most competitive neighbours. Size of one high-alpine specialist, Ranunculus glacialis was negatively related to cover of neighbouring vegetation, whereas other species showed no response to neighbours. Main conclusions Long-term frequency trends of species correlate with their microhabitat association. Species with most negative frequency trends show preferences for the rarest microhabitat conditions, where they likely experience higher competitive pressure in a warming climate. This finding emphasizes the importance of characterizing microhabitat associations and microclimatic diversity to assess present and future distributions of alpine plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ascophyllum nodosum is a foundation macroalgae of the intertidal zone that distributes across latitude 41.3-69.7°N. We tested the hypothesis that growth of A. nodosum near the northern distribution edge increases with warming. We retrospectively quantified the growth of eight A. nodosum populations at West Greenland and North Norway (from 64°N to 69°N). For seven populations, we measured growth rates since 1997-2002 and for one of them we extended the time series back to 1956 using published estimates. Individuals at northern populations elongated between 2.0 and 9.1 cm year and this variability correlated with temperature and annual ice-free days. A spatial comparison of A. nodosum growth across the species distribution range showed that Northern (and coldest) populations grew at the slowest rates. Our results demonstrate that arctic climate change enhances the growth of A. nodosum populations and suggest that their productivity may increase in response to projected global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Forecasting potential patterns in species' distributions and diversity under climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Although high-latitude regions are expected to experience some of the greatest increases in temperature due to global warming, little is known on how individual responses in species will affect patterns in phylogenetic diversity (PD). Location Alberta, Canada. Methods We used 160,589 occurrence records for 1541 species of seed plants in Alberta (nearly 90% of the province's seed flora) and ensemble niche models to project current and future suitable habitats. We then examined climate change vulnerability of individual species and the potential impacts of climate change on species richness, PD and both taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism (PE). We also assessed whether predicted losses of PD were distributed randomly across the plant tree of life. Results We found that 368 species (24%) may lose on average > 80% of their current suitable climates (habitats), while 539 species (35%) were projected to more than double their current suitable range. Both species richness and PD were predicted to increase in most areas, except for the species-rich Rocky Mountains, which are predicted to experience future declines. Maps of taxonomic and PE identified several regions with high conservation value and climate change threat suggesting priorities for conservation and climate change adaptation. Overall, a non-random extinction risk was found for Alberta's flora, demonstrating potential future impacts of climate change on the loss of evolutionary history. Main conclusions Our analyses suggest that climate change will have asymmetrical effects on the distribution of Alberta's plant diversity and endemism and a non-random extinction risk of the current state of species evolutionary history. Our results provide practical guidance for biodiversity conservation and management in this region by prioritizing species' vulnerabilities and places with higher taxonomic or evolutionary risk due to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

* Premise of the study: In response to climate warming, plant species may shift their distribution northward, but such a process is slow and hard to detect. Alternatively, phenological changes (earlier flowering) are expected as first adaptations for populations located near their distribution limit. That could be the case for the invasive Japanese knotweed (Fallopia japonica s.l., including the hybrid Bohemian knotweed F. xbohemica). We hypothesized that climate warming now allows the species to produce viable seeds in the northernmost populations. * Methods: Seeds were collected along a 550 km long transect in Quebec, Canada, and tested for germination. The genetic diversity of a population was determined using polymorphic microsatellite markers to verify whether the species is actually producing new individuals through sexual reproduction. * Key results: Japanese knotweed produces, in Quebec, a large number of seeds with a high germination rate (up to 93%). The geographical limit for viable seed production in North America has been extended to Quebec City, about 500 km north of the formerly reported limit. Bohemian knotweeds are genetically diverse, while true Japanese knotweeds all share a common multilocus genotype. This suggests that Bohemian knotweed stands mostly arose from seed, while true Japanese knotweeds result only from the propagation of rhizome or stem fragments. * Conclusions: The effect of climate change is already palpable on the phenology of invasive plant species at their northern distribution limit. Bohemian knotweed, which until recently was rare in Quebec, could rapidly spread in the near future with the help of an additional diaspore type (seeds). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many plant species are expected to shift their distributional ranges in response to global warming. As they arrive at new sites, migrant plant species may be released from their natural soil pathogens and/or deprived of key symbiotic organisms. Under such scenarios plant-soil feedbacks (PSF) will likely have an impact on plant species' -ability to establish in new areas. In this study we evaluated the role that PSF may play on the migratory potential of dominant temperate tree species at the northern limit of their distributional range in the Great Lakes region of North America. To test their ability to expand their current range, we assessed seedling establishment, i.e., survival, of local and potential migrant tree species in a field transplant experiment. To test for the presence and strength of PSF, we also assessed seedling survival during establishment in a greenhouse experiment, where the potential migrant species were grown in soils collected within and beyond their distributional ranges. The combination of experiments provided us with a comprehensive understanding of the role of PSF in seedling establishment in new areas. In the field, we found that survival for most migrant species was similar to those of the local community, ensuring that these species could establish in areas beyond their current range. In the greenhouse, we found that the majority of species experienced strong negative conspecific feedbacks mediated by soil biota, but these responses occurred for most species only in low light conditions. Lastly, our combined results indicate that migrant tree species can colonize and may even have enhanced short-term recruitment beyond their ranges due to a lack of conspecific adults (and the resulting negative PSF from these adults). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise of the study: The combination of traditional population genetic studies and species distribution modeling (SDM) provides many new insights in detecting phylogeographic signals. In Asian wild rice (Oryza rufi pogon), the progenitor of cultivated Asian rice, geographical subdivision has been documented in many genetic studies although the root cause of this subdivision remains unknown. Surprisingly, environmental factors associated with the spatial and temporal distribution of O. rufipogon have rarely been examined. The aim of this study is to understand the historical distribution of O. rufipogon and its relationship to the current geographical pattern of genetic variation. Methods: We used SDM to examine the present, past, and future distribution of O. rufipogon. The estimated distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum was then compared with genetic data from our previous work. Key results: The predicted paleodistribution of O. rufipogon at the Last Glacial Maximum was separated into disconnected east and west ranges. This past distribution is consistent with the current geographic pattern of genetic variation, with two genetic groups that intergrade. Annual precipitation is the single factor that contributes most to SDM estimates. SDM predictions for 2080 indicate a general trend of increasing probability of presence and range expansion. Conclusions: (1) The historically disjunct distribution potentially contributes to the current genetic subdivision of O. rufipogon. (2) Water availability is an important factor that limits the distribution of O. rufipogon. (3) Global warming is a lesser threat than other human-mediated factors to the conservation of this endangered species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floristically, Taiwan is a very rich island due to her varied geography, topography and habitats. Through extended historical research involving past and present botanical inventories of the central mountains, particularly of the Hehuanshan area of Taiwan, we are now able to examine the floristic composition of four elevation zones, 2,000-2,500 m, 2,500-3,000 m, 3,000-3,500 m, and 3,500-3,950 m. We selected four study sites, namely Shinjenkan (SJK) at 2,250-2,585 m, Shihmenshan (SMS) at 3,000 m, Hehuan East Peak (HEP) at 3,401 m, and Hehuan Major Peak (HMP) at 3,408 m, and determined their α, β, and Y diversities along with their Simpson's diversity indices. Our results clearly showed that the species richness (α diversity) was significantly high and decreased as the altitude increased. Coincidently, Simpson's diversity index at 2,250 m was significantly high at 0.85, drastically decreased to 0.17 at 3,145 m, and continued to decrease to 0.10 at both sites at 3408 m. On the other hand, by comparing plant distribution data collected over a century for the Hehuanshan, Alishan and Yushan areas, we were able to predict that plants would migrate mostly from a lower to a higher elevation when the global temperature increases. For instance, in the Hehuanshan area, 16 species would move towards higher elevations and seven species would remain in their original zone. In the Alishan area, seven species would migrate and four would remain in their original zone, and in Yushan, 15 species would migrate out of their zone and five would remain. Of all of the species, at least six risk extinction, since their expected migration would take them far beyond the limits of the land available above 3,950 m. It is concluded that the alpine vegetation will be redistributed, many plant species will move towards a higher elevation and, eventually, at least six plant species (Anaphalis morrisonicola, Artemisia morrisonensis, Swertia randaiensis, Hypericum nagasawai, Angelica morrisonicola, and Cirsium arisanensis) will become extinct. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on an endemic plant belonging to the Gentianaceae family called Gentiana tetrasepala found at the Valley of Flowers National Park of Gharhwal, India and its extinction due to reasons like habitat specific, unstable habitats and a restricted geographical range. It further discusses the potential threats posed to the extinction of the species that includes invasion of timberline species, unstable snow covers, global warming and climatic change.

Summary Induced by global warming, mountain plant species are migrating upwards. Species inhabiting the nival zone of today are threatened by competitors which move from the alpine zone towards the summits. The manner in which species move depends on their abilities to cope with microtopographical situations. We present a spatially explicit predictive model which draws scenarios of future species distribution patterns at a typical high mountain of the European Alps. The altitudinal temperature gradient is examined. Based on the lapse rate and on definitions of topographical niches of species, a +1 °C- and a +2 °C-warming scenario are modelled using a fine-scaled digital elevation model. Nival species will lose area and become restricted to specific topographical situations. Alpine and subnival grassland species are predicted to expand their area, mainly along stable surface situations. Whether the migration will take place as a filling or a moving process is specific to the particular species. Overall, biodiversity is apparently not threatened on the decadal scale. In special cases, however, genetic losses are likely both on a local and on a regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming is expected to cause a poleward spread of species, resulting in increased richness at mid to high latitudes and weakening the latitudinal diversity gradient. We used pollen data to test if such a change in the latitudinal diversity gradient occurred during the last major poleward shift of plant species in Europe following the end of the last glacial period. In contrast to expectations, the slope of the gradient strengthened during the Holocene. The increase in temperatures around 10 ka ago reduced diversity at mid to high latitude sites due to the gradual closure of forests. Deforestation and the introduction of agriculture during the last 5 ky had a greater impact on richness in central Europe than the earlier climate warming. These results do not support the current view that global warming alone will lead to a loss in biodiversity, and demonstrate that non-climatic human impacts on the latitudinal diversity gradient is of a greater magnitude than climate change. Climate-induced poleward shifts in plant distributions could flatten latitudinal diversity gradients. However, here the authors show that the spread of forests after the last ice age reduced diversity in central and northern Europe, and that human land-use over the past 5000 years strengthened the latitudinal gradient in plant diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary In a warming climate, temperature-sensitive plants must move toward colder areas, that is, higher latitude or altitude, by seed dispersal [1] . Considering that the temperature drop with increasing altitude (-0.65°C per 100 m altitude) is one hundred to a thousand times larger than that of the equivalent latitudinal distance [2] , vertical seed dispersal is probably a key process for plant escape from warming temperatures. In fact, plant geographical distributions are tracking global warming altitudinally rather than latitudinally, and the extent of tracking is considered to be large in plants with better-dispersed traits (e.g., lighter seeds in wind-dispersed plants) [1] . However, no study has evaluated vertical seed dispersal itself due to technical difficulty or high cost. Here, we show using a stable oxygen isotope that black bears disperse seeds of wild cherry over several hundred meters vertically, and that the dispersal direction is heavily biased towards the mountain tops. Mountain climbing by bears following spring-to-summer plant phenology is likely the cause of this biased seed dispersal. These results suggest that spring- and summer-fruiting plants dispersed by animals may have high potential to escape global warming. Our results also indicate that the direction of vertical seed dispersal can be unexpectedly biased, and highlight the importance of considering seed dispersal direction to understand plant responses to past and future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]