5,444 results on '"Luo, Jing"'
Search Results
2. China's Role in the Cambodian People's Party's Quest for Legitimacy
- Author
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Luo, Jing Jing and Un, Kheang
- Published
- 2021
3. The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays
- Author
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Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baier, Jeremy George, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chatziioannou, Katerina, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Deng, Heling, Dey, Lankeswar, Dolch, Timothy, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Gardiner, Emiko C., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Gersbach, Kyle A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Larsen, Bjorn, Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Runnoe, Jessie C., Saffer, Alexander, Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa, Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Witt, Caitlin A., Wright, David, and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology - Abstract
Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Those analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions are idealizations that may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks: after fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications, and use them to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients assume extreme values for the real data when compared to the replications. We confirm that the NANOGrav 15 yr data set is consistent with power-law and Hellings--Downs assumptions. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2\ $\sigma$ and 3\ $\sigma$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background as reported by NANOGrav., Comment: 20 pages, 14 Figures
- Published
- 2024
4. BandControlNet: Parallel Transformers-based Steerable Popular Music Generation with Fine-Grained Spatiotemporal Features
- Author
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Luo, Jing, Yang, Xinyu, and Herremans, Dorien
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Computer Science - Sound ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ,Computer Science - Multimedia ,Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Audio and Speech Processing - Abstract
Controllable music generation promotes the interaction between humans and composition systems by projecting the users' intent on their desired music. The challenge of introducing controllability is an increasingly important issue in the symbolic music generation field. When building controllable generative popular multi-instrument music systems, two main challenges typically present themselves, namely weak controllability and poor music quality. To address these issues, we first propose spatiotemporal features as powerful and fine-grained controls to enhance the controllability of the generative model. In addition, an efficient music representation called REMI_Track is designed to convert multitrack music into multiple parallel music sequences and shorten the sequence length of each track with Byte Pair Encoding (BPE) techniques. Subsequently, we release BandControlNet, a conditional model based on parallel Transformers, to tackle the multiple music sequences and generate high-quality music samples that are conditioned to the given spatiotemporal control features. More concretely, the two specially designed modules of BandControlNet, namely structure-enhanced self-attention (SE-SA) and Cross-Track Transformer (CTT), are utilized to strengthen the resulting musical structure and inter-track harmony modeling respectively. Experimental results tested on two popular music datasets of different lengths demonstrate that the proposed BandControlNet outperforms other conditional music generation models on most objective metrics in terms of fidelity and inference speed and shows great robustness in generating long music samples. The subjective evaluations show BandControlNet trained on short datasets can generate music with comparable quality to state-of-the-art models, while outperforming them significantly using longer datasets., Comment: Demo page: https://chinglohsiu.github.io/files/bandcontrolnet.html
- Published
- 2024
5. The Anomalous Acceleration of PSR J2043+1711: Long-Period Orbital Companion or Stellar Flyby?
- Author
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Donlon II, Thomas, Chakrabarti, Sukanya, Lam, Michael T., Huber, Daniel, Hey, Daniel, Ramirez-Ruiz, Enrico, Shappee, Benjamin, Kaplan, David L., Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Brook, Paul R., Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Huber, Mark, Jennings, Ross J., Jones, Megan L., Kerr, Matthew, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., McEwen, Alexander, McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Tucker, Michael A., and Wahl, Haley M.
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Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena - Abstract
Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 $\pm$ 0.8 mm/s/yr, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way models at a $4\sigma$ level. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the Milky Way interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies ($\sim$1 mm/s/yr), and too small to be caused by period variations due to the pulsar being a redback. We identify and examine two plausible causes for the anomalous acceleration: a stellar flyby, and a long-period orbital companion. We identify a main-sequence star in \textit{Gaia} DR3 and Pan-STARRS DR2 with the correct mass, distance, and on-sky position to potentially explain the observed peculiar acceleration. However, the star and the pulsar system have substantially different proper motions, indicating that they are not gravitationally bound. However, it is possible that this is an unrelated star that just happens to be located near J2043+1711 along our line of sight (chance probability of 1.6\%). Therefore, we also constrain possible orbital parameters for a circumbinary companion in a hierarchical triple system with J2043+1711; the changes in the spindown rate of the pulsar are consistent with an outer object that has an orbital period of 80 kyr, a companion mass of 0.3 $M_\odot$ (indicative of a white dwarf or low-mass star), and a semi-major axis of 2000 AU. Continued timing and/or future faint optical observations of J2043+1711 may eventually allow us to differentiate between these scenarios.
- Published
- 2024
6. Exploring pulsar timing precision: A comparative study of polarization calibration methods for NANOGrav data from the Green Bank Telescope
- Author
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Dey, Lankeswar, McLaughlin, Maura A., Wahl, Haley M., Demorest, Paul B., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Blumer, Harsha, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Cromartie, H. Thankful, DeCesar, Megan E., Dolch, Timothy, Ellis, Justin A., Ferdman, Robert D., Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Jennings, Ross J., Jones, Megan L., Lam, Michael T., Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Pennucci, Timothy T., Pol, Nihan S., Ransom, Scott M., Spiewak, Renée, Stairs, Ingrid H., Stovall, Kevin, and Swiggum, Joseph K.
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics - Abstract
Pulsar timing array experiments have recently uncovered evidence for a nanohertz gravitational wave background by precisely timing an ensemble of millisecond pulsars. The next significant milestones for these experiments include characterizing the detected background with greater precision, identifying its source(s), and detecting continuous gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries. To achieve these objectives, generating accurate and precise times of arrival of pulses from pulsar observations is crucial. Incorrect polarization calibration of the observed pulsar profiles may introduce errors in the measured times of arrival. Further, previous studies (e.g., van Straten 2013; Manchester et al. 2013) have demonstrated that robust polarization calibration of pulsar profiles can reduce noise in the pulsar timing data and improve timing solutions. In this paper, we investigate and compare the impact of different polarization calibration methods on pulsar timing precision using three distinct calibration techniques: the Ideal Feed Assumption (IFA), Measurement Equation Modeling (MEM), and Measurement Equation Template Matching (METM). Three NANOGrav pulsars-PSRs J1643$-$1224, J1744$-$1134, and J1909$-$3744-observed with the 800 MHz and 1.5 GHz receivers at the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) are utilized for our analysis. Our findings reveal that all three calibration methods enhance timing precision compared to scenarios where no polarization calibration is performed. Additionally, among the three calibration methods, the IFA approach generally provides the best results for timing analysis of pulsars observed with the GBT receiver system. We attribute the comparatively poorer performance of the MEM and METM methods to potential instabilities in the reference noise diode coupled to the receiver and temporal variations in the profile of the reference pulsar, respectively., Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, submitted to Astrophysical Journal
- Published
- 2024
7. Do We Become More Lonely With Age? A Coordinated Data Analysis of Nine Longitudinal Studies
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Graham, Eileen K, Beck, Emorie D, Jackson, Kathryn, Yoneda, Tomiko, McGhee, Chloe, Pieramici, Lily, Atherton, Olivia E, Luo, Jing, Willroth, Emily C, Steptoe, Andrew, Mroczek, Daniel K, and Ong, Anthony D
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Psychology ,Aging ,Behavioral and Social Science ,Social Determinants of Health ,2.3 Psychological ,social and economic factors ,Aetiology ,Humans ,Loneliness ,Longitudinal Studies ,Male ,Female ,Adult ,Middle Aged ,Aged ,Adolescent ,Young Adult ,Aged ,80 and over ,Age Factors ,Data Analysis ,loneliness ,lifespan development ,coordinated analysis ,open materials ,preregistered ,Cognitive Sciences ,Experimental Psychology - Abstract
Loneliness is a pervasive experience with adverse impacts on health and well-being. Despite its significance, notable gaps impede a full understanding of how loneliness changes across the adult life span and what factors influence these changes. To address this, we conducted a coordinated data analysis of nine longitudinal studies encompassing 128,118 participants ages 13 to 103 from over 20 countries. Using harmonized variables and models, we examined loneliness trajectories and predictors. Analyses revealed that loneliness follows a U-shaped curve, decreasing from young adulthood to midlife and increasing in older adulthood. These patterns were consistent across studies. Several baseline factors (i.e., sex, marital status, physical function, education) were linked to loneliness levels, but few moderated the loneliness trajectories. These findings highlight the dynamic nature of loneliness and underscore the need for targeted interventions to reduce social disparities throughout adulthood.
- Published
- 2024
8. ORCA: A Global Ocean Emulator for Multi-year to Decadal Predictions
- Author
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Guo, Zijie, Lyu, Pumeng, Ling, Fenghua, Luo, Jing-Jia, Boers, Niklas, Ouyang, Wanli, and Bai, Lei
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Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ,Computer Science - Machine Learning - Abstract
Ocean dynamics plays a crucial role in driving global weather and climate patterns. Accurate and efficient modeling of ocean dynamics is essential for improved understanding of complex ocean circulation and processes, for predicting climate variations and their associated teleconnections, and for addressing the challenges of climate change. While great efforts have been made to improve numerical Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), accurate forecasting of global oceanic variations for multi-year remains to be a long-standing challenge. Here, we introduce ORCA (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst), the first data-driven model predicting global ocean circulation from multi-year to decadal time scales. ORCA accurately simulates the three-dimensional circulations and dynamics of the global ocean with high physical consistency. Hindcasts of key oceanic variables demonstrate ORCA's remarkable prediction skills in predicting ocean variations compared with state-of-the-art numerical OGCMs and abilities in capturing occurrences of extreme events at the subsurface ocean and ENSO vertical patterns. These results demonstrate the potential of data-driven ocean models for providing cheap, efficient, and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction. Moreover, ORCA stably and faithfully emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for climate projections. The model will be available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/ORCA.
- Published
- 2024
9. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Chromatic Gaussian Process Noise Models for Six Pulsars
- Author
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Larsen, Bjorn, Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Chalumeau, Aurelien, Good, Deborah C., Simon, Joseph, Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Brook, Paul R., Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Jennings, Ross J., Jones, Megan L., Kaplan, David L., Kerr, Matthew, Lam, Michael T., Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., McEwen, Alexander, McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Wahl, Haley M., Champion, David J., Cognard, Ismael, Guillemot, Lucas, Hu, Huanchen, Keith, Michael J., Liu, Kuo, McKee, James W., Parthasarathy, Aditya, Perrodin, Delphine, Possenti, Andrea, Shaifullah, Golam M., and Theureau, Gilles
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics - Abstract
Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are designed to detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). GWs induce achromatic signals in PTA data, meaning that the timing delays do not depend on radio-frequency. However, pulse arrival times are also affected by radio-frequency dependent "chromatic" noise from sources such as dispersion measure (DM) and scattering delay variations. Furthermore, the characterization of GW signals may be influenced by the choice of chromatic noise model for each pulsar. To better understand this effect, we assess if and how different chromatic noise models affect achromatic noise properties in each pulsar. The models we compare include existing DM models used by NANOGrav and noise models used for the European PTA Data Release 2 (EPTA DR2). We perform this comparison using a subsample of six pulsars from the NANOGrav 15 yr data set, selecting the same six pulsars as from the EPTA DR2 six-pulsar dataset. We find that the choice of chromatic noise model noticeably affects the achromatic noise properties of several pulsars. This is most dramatic for PSR J1713+0747, where the amplitude of its achromatic red noise lowers from $\log_{10}A_{\text{RN}} = -14.1^{+0.1}_{-0.1}$ to $-14.7^{+0.3}_{-0.5}$, and the spectral index broadens from $\gamma_{\text{RN}} = 2.6^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$ to $\gamma_{\text{RN}} = 3.5^{+1.2}_{-0.9}$. We also compare each pulsar's noise properties with those inferred from the EPTA DR2, using the same models. From the discrepancies, we identify potential areas where the noise models could be improved. These results highlight the potential for custom chromatic noise models to improve PTA sensitivity to GWs.
- Published
- 2024
10. FuXi-ENS: A machine learning model for medium-range ensemble weather forecasting
- Author
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Zhong, Xiaohui, Chen, Lei, Li, Hao, Liu, Jun, Fan, Xu, Feng, Jie, Dai, Kan, Luo, Jing-Jia, Wu, Jie, and Lu, Bo
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Computer Science - Machine Learning ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ,Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Abstract
Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional NWP models is highly computationally expensive. ML models have emerged as valuable tools for deterministic weather forecasts, providing forecasts with significantly reduced computational requirements and even surpassing the forecast performance of traditional NWP models. However, challenges arise when applying ML models to ensemble forecasting. Recent ML models, such as GenCast and SEEDS model, rely on the ERA5 EDA or operational NWP ensemble members for forecast generation. Their spatial resolution is also considered too coarse for many applications. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FuXi-ENS, an advanced ML model designed to deliver 6-hourly global ensemble weather forecasts up to 15 days. This model runs at a significantly increased spatial resolution of 0.25\textdegree, incorporating 5 atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels, along with 13 surface variables. By leveraging the inherent probabilistic nature of Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), FuXi-ENS optimizes a loss function that combines the CRPS and the KL divergence between the predicted and target distribution, facilitating the incorporation of flow-dependent perturbations in both initial conditions and forecast. This innovative approach makes FuXi-ENS an advancement over the traditional ones that use L1 loss combined with the KL loss in standard VAE models for ensemble weather forecasting. Results demonstrate that FuXi-ENS outperforms ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, a world leading NWP model, in the CRPS of 98.1% of 360 variable and forecast lead time combinations. This achievement underscores the potential of the FuXi-ENS model to enhance ensemble weather forecasts, offering a promising direction for further development in this field.
- Published
- 2024
11. PINT: Maximum-likelihood estimation of pulsar timing noise parameters
- Author
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Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Kaplan, David, Archibald, Anne, Luo, Jing, Ray, Paul, Pennucci, Timothy, Ransom, Scott, Agazie, Gabriella, Fiore, William, Larsen, Bjorn, O'Neill, Patrick, van Haasteren, Rutger, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Bachetti, Matteo, Bhakta, Deven, Champagne, Chloe, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Demorest, Paul, Jennings, Ross, Kerr, Matthew, Levina, Sasha, McEwen, Alexander, Shapiro-Albert, Brent, and Swiggum, Joseph
- Subjects
Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena - Abstract
PINT is a pure-Python framework for high-precision pulsar timing developed on top of widely used and well-tested Python libraries, supporting both interactive and programmatic data analysis workflows. We present a new frequentist framework within PINT to characterize the single-pulsar noise processes present in pulsar timing datasets. This framework enables the parameter estimation for both uncorrelated and correlated noise processes as well as the model comparison between different timing and noise models in a computationally inexpensive way. We demonstrate the efficacy of the new framework by applying it to simulated datasets as well as a real dataset of PSR B1855+09. We also describe the new features implemented in PINT since it was first described in the literature., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ
- Published
- 2024
12. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Looking for Signs of Discreteness in the Gravitational-wave Background
- Author
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Agazie, Gabriella, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Brown, Lucas, Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Deng, Heling, Dolch, Timothy, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Larsen, Bjorn, Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Natarajan, Priyamvada, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Runnoe, Jessie C., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmitz, Kai, Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa, Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Willson, London, Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies - Abstract
The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 \sigma - 1.9 \sigma$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 \sigma - 2.1 \sigma$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26$~nHz break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 1 appendix, submitted to ApJ
- Published
- 2024
13. API Is Enough: Conformal Prediction for Large Language Models Without Logit-Access
- Author
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Su, Jiayuan, Luo, Jing, Wang, Hongwei, and Cheng, Lu
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Computer Science - Computation and Language ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ,Computer Science - Machine Learning - Abstract
This study aims to address the pervasive challenge of quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) without logit-access. Conformal Prediction (CP), known for its model-agnostic and distribution-free features, is a desired approach for various LLMs and data distributions. However, existing CP methods for LLMs typically assume access to the logits, which are unavailable for some API-only LLMs. In addition, logits are known to be miscalibrated, potentially leading to degraded CP performance. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a novel CP method that (1) is tailored for API-only LLMs without logit-access; (2) minimizes the size of prediction sets; and (3) ensures a statistical guarantee of the user-defined coverage. The core idea of this approach is to formulate nonconformity measures using both coarse-grained (i.e., sample frequency) and fine-grained uncertainty notions (e.g., semantic similarity). Experimental results on both close-ended and open-ended Question Answering tasks show our approach can mostly outperform the logit-based CP baselines.
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- 2024
14. Diffusion Model-based Probabilistic Downscaling for 180-year East Asian Climate Reconstruction
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Ling, Fenghua, Lu, Zeyu, Luo, Jing-Jia, Bai, Lei, Behera, Swadhin K., Jin, Dachao, Pan, Baoxiang, Jiang, Huidong, and Yamagata, Toshio
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Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Computer Science - Machine Learning ,Physics - Geophysics - Abstract
As our planet is entering into the "global boiling" era, understanding regional climate change becomes imperative. Effective downscaling methods that provide localized insights are crucial for this target. Traditional approaches, including computationally-demanding regional dynamical models or statistical downscaling frameworks, are often susceptible to the influence of downscaling uncertainty. Here, we address these limitations by introducing a diffusion probabilistic downscaling model (DPDM) into the meteorological field. This model can efficiently transform data from 1{\deg} to 0.1{\deg} resolution. Compared with deterministic downscaling schemes, it not only has more accurate local details, but also can generate a large number of ensemble members based on probability distribution sampling to evaluate the uncertainty of downscaling. Additionally, we apply the model to generate a 180-year dataset of monthly surface variables in East Asia, offering a more detailed perspective for understanding local scale climate change over the past centuries.
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- 2024
15. Improving Global Weather and Ocean Wave Forecast with Large Artificial Intelligence Models
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Ling, Fenghua, Ouyang, Lin, Larbi, Boufeniza Redouane, Luo, Jing-Jia, Han, Tao, Zhong, Xiaohui, and Bai, Lei
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Computer Science - Machine Learning ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ,Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Physics - Geophysics - Abstract
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technologies, particularly in recent years, has led to the emergence of several large parameter artificial intelligence weather forecast models. These models represent a significant breakthrough, overcoming the limitations of traditional numerical weather prediction models and indicating the emergence of profound potential tools for atmosphere-ocean forecasts. This study explores the evolution of these advanced artificial intelligence forecast models, and based on the identified commonalities, proposes the "Three Large Rules" to measure their development. We discuss the potential of artificial intelligence in revolutionizing numerical weather prediction, and briefly outlining the underlying reasons for its great potential. While acknowledging the high accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of deployment of large artificial intelligence forecast models, we also emphasize the irreplaceable values of traditional numerical forecasts and explore the challenges in the future development of large-scale artificial intelligence atmosphere-ocean forecast models. We believe that the optimal future of atmosphere-ocean weather forecast lies in achieving a seamless integration of artificial intelligence and traditional numerical models. Such a synthesis is anticipated to offer a more advanced and reliable approach for improved atmosphere-ocean forecasts. Additionally, we illustrate how forecasters can adapt and leverage the advanced artificial intelligence model through an example by building a large artificial intelligence model for global ocean wave forecast.
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- 2024
16. Towards an end-to-end artificial intelligence driven global weather forecasting system
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Chen, Kun, Bai, Lei, Ling, Fenghua, Ye, Peng, Chen, Tao, Luo, Jing-Jia, Chen, Hao, Xiao, Yi, Chen, Kang, Han, Tao, and Ouyang, Wanli
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Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ,Computer Science - Machine Learning - Abstract
The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.
- Published
- 2023
17. ResoNet: Robust and Explainable ENSO Forecasts with Hybrid Convolution and Transformer Networks
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Lyu, Pumeng, Tang, Tao, Ling, Fenghua, Luo, Jing-Jia, Boers, Niklas, Ouyang, Wanli, and Bai, Lei
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Physics - Geophysics ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence - Abstract
Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can skillfully predict the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts over 1.5 years ahead. However, concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist, including potential overfitting issues and lack of interpretability. Here, we propose ResoNet, a DL model that combines convolutional neural network (CNN) and Transformer architectures. This hybrid architecture design enables our model to adequately capture local SSTA as well as long-range inter-basin interactions across oceans. We show that ResoNet can robustly predict ESNO at lead times between 19 and 26 months, thus outperforming existing approaches in terms of the forecast horizon. According to an explainability method applied to ResoNet predictions of El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na events from 1- to 18-month lead, we find that it predicts the Ni\~no3.4 index based on multiple physically reasonable mechanisms, such as the Recharge Oscillator concept, Seasonal Footprint Mechanism, and Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Moreover, we demonstrate that for the first time, the asymmetry between El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na development can be captured by ResoNet. Our results could help alleviate skepticism about applying DL models for ENSO prediction and encourage more attempts to discover and predict climate phenomena using AI methods., Comment: 32 pages, 5 main figures and 12 supplementary figures
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- 2023
18. Differential privacy statistical inference for a directed graph network model with covariates
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Luo, Jing and Xu, Zhimeng
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Mathematics - Statistics Theory - Abstract
The real network has two characteristics: heterogeneity and homogeneity. A directed network model with covariates is proposed to analyze these two features, and the asymptotic theory of parameter Maximum likelihood estimators(MLEs) is established. However, in many practical cases, network data often carries a lot of sensitive information. How to achieve the trade-off between privacy and utility has become an important issue in network data analysis. In this paper, we study a directed $\beta$-model with covariates under differential privacy mechanism. It includes $2n$-dimensional node degree parameters $\boldsymbol{\theta}$ and a $p$-dimensional homogeneity parameter $\boldsymbol{\gamma}$ that describes the covariate effect. We use the discrete Laplace mechanism to release noise for the bi-degree sequences. Based on moment equations, we estimate the parameters of both degree heterogeneity and homogeneity in the model, and derive the consistency and asymptotic normality of the differentially private estimators as the number of nodes tends to infinity. Numerical simulations and case studies are provided to demonstrate the validity of our theoretical results.
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- 2023
19. The Forecast Skills and Predictability Sources of Marine Heatwaves in the NUIST-CFS1.0 Hindcasts
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Ma, Jing, Xu, Haiming, Dong, Changming, and Luo, Jing-Jia
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- 2024
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20. ResoNet: Robust and Explainable ENSO Forecasts with Hybrid Convolution and Transformer Networks
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Lyu, Pumeng, Tang, Tao, Ling, Fenghua, Luo, Jing-Jia, Boers, Niklas, Ouyang, Wanli, and Bai, Lei
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- 2024
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21. Rural-urban differences in personality traits and well-being in adulthood.
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Atherton, Olivia, Willroth, Emily, Graham, Eileen, Luo, Jing, Mroczek, Daniel, and Lewis-Thames, Marquita
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Big Five ,HRS ,MIDUS ,life satisfaction ,longitudinal ,psychological well-being ,rurality ,Adult ,Humans ,Personality ,Neuroticism ,Personality Disorders ,Longitudinal Studies ,Personality Inventory - Abstract
OBJECTIVE: One large focus of personality psychology is to understand the biopsychosocial factors responsible for adult personality development and well-being change. However, little is known about how macro-level contextual factors, such as rurality-urbanicity, are related to personality development and well-being change. METHOD: The present study uses data from two large longitudinal studies of U.S. Americans (MIDUS, HRS) to examine whether there are rural-urban differences in levels and changes in the Big Five personality traits and well-being (i.e., psychological well-being, and life satisfaction) in adulthood. RESULTS: Multilevel models showed that Americans who lived in more rural areas tended to have lower levels of openness, conscientiousness, and psychological well-being, and higher levels of neuroticism. With the exception of psychological well-being (which replicated across MIDUS and HRS), rural-urban differences in personality traits were only evident in the HRS sample. The effect of neuroticism was fully robust to the inclusion of socio-demographic and social network covariates, but other effects were partially robust (i.e., conscientiousness and openness) or were not robust at all (i.e., psychological well-being). In both samples, there were no rural-urban differences in Big Five or well-being change. CONCLUSIONS: We discuss the implications of these findings for personality and rural health research.
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- 2024
22. A Dual Anion Chemistry‐Based Superionic Glass Enabling Long‐Cycling All‐Solid‐State Sodium‐Ion Batteries
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Lin, Xiaoting, Zhao, Yang, Wang, Changhong, Luo, Jing, Fu, Jiamin, Xiao, Biwei, Gao, Yingjie, Li, Weihan, Zhang, Shumin, Xu, Jiabin, Yang, Feipeng, Hao, Xiaoge, Duan, Hui, Sun, Yipeng, Guo, Jinghua, Huang, Yining, and Sun, Xueliang
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Chemical Sciences ,Physical Chemistry ,Affordable and Clean Energy ,All-Solid-State Sodium-Ion Batteries ,Glassy Na-Ion Solid-State Electrolytes ,Oxychloride ,Superionic Glass ,Organic Chemistry ,Chemical sciences - Abstract
Glassy Na-ion solid-state electrolytes (GNSSEs) are an important group of amorphous SSEs. However, the insufficient ionic conductivity of state-of-the-art GNSSEs at room temperature lessens their promise in the development of all-solid-state Na-ion batteries (ASSNIBs) with high energy density and improved safety. Here we report the discovery of a new sodium superionic glass, 0.5Na2 O2 -TaCl5 (NTOC), based on dual-anion sublattice of oxychlorides. The unique local structures with abundant bridging and non-bridging oxygen atoms contributes to a highly disordered Na-ion distribution as well as low Na+ migration barrier within NTOC, enabling an ultrahigh ionic conductivity of 4.62 mS cm-1 at 25 °C (more than 20 times higher than those of previously reported GNSSEs). Moreover, the excellent formability of glassy NTOC electrolyte and its high electrochemical oxidative stability ensure a favourable electrolyte-electrode interface, contributing to superior cycling stability of ASSNIBs for over 500 cycles at room temperature. The discovery of glassy NTOC electrolyte would reignite research enthusiasm in superionic glassy SSEs based on multi-anion chemistry.
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- 2024
23. The NANOGrav 15-year data set: Search for Transverse Polarization Modes in the Gravitational-Wave Background
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Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baier, Jeremy, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Burnette, Rand, Case, Robin, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan E., DeGan, Dallas, Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Natarajan, Priyamvada, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Saffer, Alexander, Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Sun, Jerry P., Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Jacob A., Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena - Abstract
Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures
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- 2023
24. The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: A computationally efficient eccentric binary search pipeline and constraints on an eccentric supermassive binary candidate in 3C 66B
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Agazie, Gabriella, Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Blumer, Harsha, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dey, Lankeswar, Dolch, Timothy, Ellis, Justin A., Ferdman, Robert D., Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gopakumar, Achamveedu, Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmitz, Kai, Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa, Spiewak, Renée, Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology - Abstract
The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $\eta>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $\eta>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations., Comment: 27 Pages, 10 Figures, 1 Table, Accepted for publication in ApJ
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- 2023
25. Spiral shocks induced in galactic gaseous disk: hydrodynamic understanding of observational properties of spiral galaxies
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Aktar, Ramiz, Xue, Li, Zhang, Li-Xin, and Luo, Jing-Yi
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Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies - Abstract
We investigate the properties of spiral shocks in a steady, adiabatic, non-axisymmetric, self-gravitating, mass-outflowing accretion disk around a compact object. We obtain the accretion-ejection solutions in a gaseous galactic disk and apply them to the spiral galaxies to investigate the possible physical connections between some galaxy observational quantities. The self-gravitating disk potential is considered following Mestel's (1963) prescription. The spiral shock-induced accretion-ejection solutions are obtained following the point-wise self-similar approach. We observe that the self-gravitating disk profoundly affects the dynamics of the spiral structure of the disk and the properties of the spiral shocks. We find that the observational dispersion between the pitch angle and shear rate and between the pitch angle and star formation rate in spiral galaxies contains some important physical information. There are large differences in star formation rates among galaxies with similar pitch angles, which may be explained by the different star formation efficiencies caused by the distinct galactic ambient conditions., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics
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- 2023
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26. How to Detect an Astrophysical Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Background
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Bécsy, Bence, Cornish, Neil J., Meyers, Patrick M., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chatziioannou, Katerina, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Hourihane, Sophie, Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Littenberg, Tyson B., Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa, Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, van Haasteren, Rutger, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena - Abstract
Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, version matching published paper
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- 2023
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27. Is There Intergenerational Continuity in Early Life Experiences? Findings From the Harvard Study of Adult Development
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Atherton, Olivia E, Graham, Eileen K, Dorame, Ashley N, Horgan, Daniel, Luo, Jing, Nevarez, Michael D, Ferrie, Joseph P, Spiro, Avron, Schulz, Marc S, Waldinger, Robert J, Mroczek, Daniel K, and Lee, Lewina O
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Psychology ,Clinical and Health Psychology ,Social and Personality Psychology ,Applied and Developmental Psychology ,Social Determinants of Health ,Behavioral and Social Science ,Pediatric ,2.3 Psychological ,social and economic factors ,Aetiology ,Generic health relevance ,Quality Education ,Humans ,Adult ,Female ,Child ,Male ,Parents ,Family Characteristics ,Social Class ,Educational Status ,Marriage ,Intergenerational Relations ,intergenerational ,early life experiences ,social class ,family systems ,longitudinal ,Family Studies ,Applied and developmental psychology ,Clinical and health psychology ,Social and personality psychology - Abstract
There has been longstanding and widespread interdisciplinary interest in understanding intergenerational processes, or the extent to which conditions repeat themselves across generations. However, due to the difficulty of collecting longitudinal, multigenerational data on early life conditions, less is known about the extent to which offspring experience the same early life conditions that their parents experienced in their own early lives. Using data from a socioeconomically diverse, White U.S. American cohort of 1,312 offspring (50% female) and their fathers (N = 518 families), we address three primary questions: (1) To what extent is there intergenerational continuity in early life experiences (social class, home atmosphere, parent-child relationship quality, health)? (2) Is intergenerational continuity in early life experiences greater for some domains of experience compared to others? and (3) Are there person-level (offspring sex, birth order, perceptions of marital stability) and family-level factors (family size, father education level and education mobility, marital stability) that moderate intergenerational continuity? Multilevel models indicated that intergenerational continuity was particularly robust for childhood social class, but nonsignificant for other early life experiences. Further, intergenerational continuity was moderated by several family-level factors, such that families with higher father education/mobility and marital stability, tended to have offspring with the most optimal early life experiences, regardless of what their father experienced in early life. We discuss the broader theoretical implications for family systems, as well as practical implications for individual-level and family-level interventions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
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- 2023
28. The Grey Zone of Chinese Capital : Online Gambling in Cambodia's Sihanoukville
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LUO, JING JING
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- 2023
29. Study on the effectiveness and influencing factors of china’s carbon emissions trading policy from industries’ perspective
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Zhang, Lihui, Luo, Jing, Wu, Zhongqun, and Li, Yifei
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- 2024
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30. Downscaling Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts over East Africa with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
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Asfaw, Temesgen Gebremariam and Luo, Jing-Jia
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- 2024
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31. The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory
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Agazie, Gabriella, Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Blumer, Harsha, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Burnette, Rand, Case, Robin, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, DeCesar, Megan E., DeGan, Dallas, Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ellis, Justin A., Ferdman, Robert D., Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Pol, Nihan S., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmitz, Kai, Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Fiscella, Sophia V. Sosa, Spiewak, Renée, Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Sun, Jerry P., Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics - Abstract
We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set (Bayes factor = 2.8). As such, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately $3.3 \times 10^{-14}$. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613$-$0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise which can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array., Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures
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- 2023
32. The NANOGrav 12.5-Year Data Set: Dispersion Measure Mis-Estimation with Varying Bandwidths
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Fiscella, Sofia Valentina Sosa, Lam, Michael T., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Blumer, Harsha, Brook, Paul R., Cromartie, H. Thankful, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Ellis, Justin A., Ferdman, Robert D., Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fonseca, Emmanuel, Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Good, Deborah C., Jones, Megan L., Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., McLaughlin, Maura A., Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Pennucci, Timothy T., Pol, Nihan S., Ransom, Scott M., Spiewak, Renee, Stairs, Ingrid H., Stovall, Kevin, Swiggum, Joseph K., and Vigeland, Sarah J.
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics - Abstract
Noise characterization for pulsar-timing applications accounts for interstellar dispersion by assuming a known frequency-dependence of the delay it introduces in the times of arrival (TOAs). However, calculations of this delay suffer from mis-estimations due to other chromatic effects in the observations. The precision in modeling dispersion is dependent on the observed bandwidth. In this work, we calculate the offsets in infinite-frequency TOAs due to mis-estimations in the modeling of dispersion when using varying bandwidths at the Green Bank Telescope. We use a set of broadband observations of PSR J1643-1224, a pulsar with an excess of chromatic noise in its timing residuals. We artificially restricted these observations to a narrowband frequency range, then used both data sets to calculate residuals with a timing model that does not include short-scale dispersion variations. By fitting the resulting residuals to a dispersion model, and comparing the ensuing fitted parameters, we quantify the dispersion mis-estimations. Moreover, by calculating the autocovariance function of the parameters we obtained a characteristic timescale over which the dispersion mis-estimations are correlated. For PSR J1643-1224, which has one of the highest dispersion measures (DM) in the NANOGrav pulsar timing array, we find that the infinite-frequency TOAs suffer from a systematic offset of ~22 microseconds due to DM mis-estimations, with correlations over ~1 month. For lower-DM pulsars, the offset is ~7 microseconds. This error quantification can be used to provide more robust noise modeling in NANOGrav's data, thereby increasing sensitivity and improving parameter estimation in gravitational wave searches.
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- 2023
33. A fast radio burst localized at detection to a galactic disk using very long baseline interferometry
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Cassanelli, Tomas, Leung, Calvin, Sanghavi, Pranav, Mena-Parra, Juan, Cary, Savannah, Mckinven, Ryan, Bhardwaj, Mohit, Masui, Kiyoshi W., Michilli, Daniele, Bandura, Kevin, Chatterjee, Shami, Peterson, Jeffrey B., Kaczmarek, Jane, Patel, Chitrang, Rahman, Mubdi, Shin, Kaitlyn, Vanderlinde, Keith, Berger, Sabrina, Brar, Charanjot, Boyle, P. J., Breitman, Daniela, Chawla, Pragya, Curtin, Alice P., Dobbs, Matt, Dong, Fengqiu Adam, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Gaensler, B. M., Ibik, Adaeze, Kaspi, Victoria M., Kholoud, Khairy, Lanman, Adam E., Lazda, Mattias, Lin, Hsiu-Hsien, Luo, Jing, Meyers, Bradley W., Milutinovic, Nikola, Ng, Cherry, Noble, Gavin, Pearlman, Aaron B., Pen, Ue-Li, Petroff, Emily, Pleunis, Ziggy, Quine, Brendan, Rafiei-Ravandi, Masoud, Renard, Andre, Sand, Ketan R., Schoen, Eve, Scholz, Paul, Smith, Kendrick M., Stairs, Ingrid, and Tendulkar, Shriharsh P.
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics - Abstract
Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are millisecond-duration, luminous radio transients of extragalactic origin. These events have been used to trace the baryonic structure of the Universe using their dispersion measure (DM) assuming that the contribution from host galaxies can be reliably estimated. However, contributions from the immediate environment of an FRB may dominate the observed DM, thus making redshift estimates challenging without a robust host galaxy association. Furthermore, while at least one Galactic burst has been associated with a magnetar, other localized FRBs argue against magnetars as the sole progenitor model. Precise localization within the host galaxy can discriminate between progenitor models, a major goal of the field. Until now, localizations on this spatial scale have only been carried out in follow-up observations of repeating sources. Here we demonstrate the localization of FRB 20210603A with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) on two baselines, using data collected only at the time of detection. We localize the burst to SDSS J004105.82+211331.9, an edge-on galaxy at $z\approx 0.177$, and detect recent star formation in the kiloparsec-scale vicinity of the burst. The edge-on inclination of the host galaxy allows for a unique comparison between the line of sight towards the FRB and lines of sight towards known Galactic pulsars. The DM, Faraday rotation measure (RM), and scattering suggest a progenitor coincident with the host galactic plane, strengthening the link between the environment of FRB 20210603A and the disk of its host galaxy. Single-pulse VLBI localizations of FRBs to within their host galaxies, following the one presented here, will further constrain the origins and host environments of one-off FRBs., Comment: 40 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in Nature Astronomy
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- 2023
34. Inter-Rater Uncertainty Quantification in Medical Image Segmentation via Rater-Specific Bayesian Neural Networks
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Hu, Qingqiao, Wang, Hao, Luo, Jing, Luo, Yunhao, Zhangg, Zhiheng, Kirschke, Jan S., Wiestler, Benedikt, Menze, Bjoern, Zhang, Jianguo, and Li, Hongwei Bran
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Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Image and Video Processing ,Computer Science - Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition - Abstract
Automated medical image segmentation inherently involves a certain degree of uncertainty. One key factor contributing to this uncertainty is the ambiguity that can arise in determining the boundaries of a target region of interest, primarily due to variations in image appearance. On top of this, even among experts in the field, different opinions can emerge regarding the precise definition of specific anatomical structures. This work specifically addresses the modeling of segmentation uncertainty, known as inter-rater uncertainty. Its primary objective is to explore and analyze the variability in segmentation outcomes that can occur when multiple experts in medical imaging interpret and annotate the same images. We introduce a novel Bayesian neural network-based architecture to estimate inter-rater uncertainty in medical image segmentation. Our approach has three key advancements. Firstly, we introduce a one-encoder-multi-decoder architecture specifically tailored for uncertainty estimation, enabling us to capture the rater-specific representation of each expert involved. Secondly, we propose Bayesian modeling for the new architecture, allowing efficient capture of the inter-rater distribution, particularly in scenarios with limited annotations. Lastly, we enhance the rater-specific representation by integrating an attention module into each decoder. This module facilitates focused and refined segmentation results for each rater. We conduct extensive evaluations using synthetic and real-world datasets to validate our technical innovations rigorously. Our method surpasses existing baseline methods in five out of seven diverse tasks on the publicly available \emph{QUBIQ} dataset, considering two evaluation metrics encompassing different uncertainty aspects. Our codes, models, and the new dataset are available through our GitHub repository: https://github.com/HaoWang420/bOEMD-net ., Comment: submitted to a journal for review
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- 2023
35. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries
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Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Case, Robin, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil, Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan, Demorest, Paul B., Digman, Matthew C., Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel, Garver-Daniels, Nathaniel, Gentile, Peter, Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah, Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey, Hourihane, Sophie, Jennings, Ross, Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan, Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David, Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey, Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael, Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing Santiago, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin, McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura, McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., mitridate, andrea, natarajan, priya, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David, Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken, Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge, Petrov, Polina, Pol, Nihan, Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott, Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph, Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena, Stairs, Ingrid, Stinebring, Dan, Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph, Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen, Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, van Haasteren, Rutger, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Witt, Caitlin, and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology - Abstract
Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems., Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org
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- 2023
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36. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Anisotropy in the Gravitational-Wave Background
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Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Gardiner, Emiko, Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Schult, Levi, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology - Abstract
The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems, then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the distribution of these systems in the local Universe and the statistical properties of the SMBHB population. In this work, we search for anisotropy in the GWB using multiple methods and bases to describe the distribution of the GWB power on the sky. We do not find significant evidence of anisotropy, and place a Bayesian $95\%$ upper limit on the level of broadband anisotropy such that $(C_{l>0} / C_{l=0}) < 20\%$. We also derive conservative estimates on the anisotropy expected from a random distribution of SMBHB systems using astrophysical simulations conditioned on the isotropic GWB inferred in the 15-yr dataset, and show that this dataset has sufficient sensitivity to probe a large fraction of the predicted level of anisotropy. We end by highlighting the opportunities and challenges in searching for anisotropy in pulsar timing array data., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org
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- 2023
37. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational Wave Background
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Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Bonilla, Alexander, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Burnette, Rand, Case, Robin, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chatziioannou, Katerina, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., Chen, Siyuan, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, Cutler, Curt J., D'Orazio, Daniel J., DeCesar, Megan E., DeGan, Dallas, Demorest, Paul B., Deng, Heling, Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Gardiner, Emiko, Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Gersbach, Kyle A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Hourihane, Sophie, Islo, Kristina, Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron, Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Littenberg, Tyson B., Liu, Tingting, Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Natarajan, Priyamvada, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Petrov, Polina, Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Runnoe, Jessie C., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Schult, Levi, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Sun, Jerry P., Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wachter, Jeremy M., Wahl, Haley M., Wang, Qiaohong, Witt, Caitlin A., Wright, David, and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology - Abstract
The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org. Edited to fix two equation typos (Eq.13 & 21), and minor text typos
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- 2023
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38. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics
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Afzal, Adeela, Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blanco-Pillado, Jose Juan, Blecha, Laura, Boddy, Kimberly K., Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Burnette, Rand, Case, Robin, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chatziioannou, Katerina, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., Chen, Siyuan, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, Cutler, Curt J., DeCesar, Megan E., DeGan, Dallas, Demorest, Paul B., Deng, Heling, Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, von Eckardstein, Richard, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Gersbach, Kyle A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Guertin, Lydia, Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Hourihane, Sophie, Islo, Kristina, Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lee, Vincent S. H., Lewandowska, Natalia, Santos, Rafael R. Lino dos, Littenberg, Tyson B., Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Nay, Jonathan, Natarajan, Priyamvada, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Petrov, Polina, Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Schröder, Tobias, Schult, Levi, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Stratmann, Peter, Sun, Jerry P., Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen R., Trickle, Tanner, Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Verma, Sonali, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Wang, Qiaohong, Witt, Caitlin A., Wright, David, Young, Olivia, and Zurek, Kathryn M.
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology ,High Energy Physics - Phenomenology - Abstract
The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons., Comment: 74 pages, 31 figures, 4 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org
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- 2023
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39. The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Detector Characterization and Noise Budget
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Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, Decesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Guertin, Lydia, Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., Mcewen, Alexander, Mckee, James W., Mclaughlin, Maura A., Mcmann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology - Abstract
Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are galactic-scale gravitational wave detectors. Each individual arm, composed of a millisecond pulsar, a radio telescope, and a kiloparsecs-long path, differs in its properties but, in aggregate, can be used to extract low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) signals. We present a noise and sensitivity analysis to accompany the NANOGrav 15-year data release and associated papers, along with an in-depth introduction to PTA noise models. As a first step in our analysis, we characterize each individual pulsar data set with three types of white noise parameters and two red noise parameters. These parameters, along with the timing model and, particularly, a piecewise-constant model for the time-variable dispersion measure, determine the sensitivity curve over the low-frequency GW band we are searching. We tabulate information for all of the pulsars in this data release and present some representative sensitivity curves. We then combine the individual pulsar sensitivities using a signal-to-noise-ratio statistic to calculate the global sensitivity of the PTA to a stochastic background of GWs, obtaining a minimum noise characteristic strain of $7\times 10^{-15}$ at 5 nHz. A power law-integrated analysis shows rough agreement with the amplitudes recovered in NANOGrav's 15-year GW background analysis. While our phenomenological noise model does not model all known physical effects explicitly, it provides an accurate characterization of the noise in the data while preserving sensitivity to multiple classes of GW signals., Comment: 67 pages, 73 figures, 3 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org
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- 2023
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40. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Observations and Timing of 68 Millisecond Pulsars
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Agazie, Gabriella, Alam, Md Faisal, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Blecha, Laura, Bonidie, Victoria, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Bécsy, Bence, Chapman, Christopher, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Jessup, Cody, Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Kuske, Anastasia, Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Lin, Ye, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., Maraccini, Kaleb, McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Panciu, Elisa, Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Salo, Laura, Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmitz, Kai, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Wang, Qiaohong, Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics - Abstract
We present observations and timing analyses of 68 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) comprising the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). NANOGrav is a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment that is sensitive to low-frequency gravitational waves. This is NANOGrav's fifth public data release, including both "narrowband" and "wideband" time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements and corresponding pulsar timing models. We have added 21 MSPs and extended our timing baselines by three years, now spanning nearly 16 years for some of our sources. The data were collected using the Arecibo Observatory, the Green Bank Telescope, and the Very Large Array between frequencies of 327 MHz and 3 GHz, with most sources observed approximately monthly. A number of notable methodological and procedural changes were made compared to our previous data sets. These improve the overall quality of the TOA data set and are part of the transition to new pulsar timing and PTA analysis software packages. For the first time, our data products are accompanied by a full suite of software to reproduce data reduction, analysis, and results. Our timing models include a variety of newly detected astrometric and binary pulsar parameters, including several significant improvements to pulsar mass constraints. We find that the time series of 23 pulsars contain detectable levels of red noise, 10 of which are new measurements. In this data set, we find evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave background., Comment: 90 pages, 74 figures, 6 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org
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- 2023
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41. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background
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Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Becsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Burnette, Rand, Case, Robin, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chatziioannou, Katerina, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., Chen, Siyuan, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, Cutler, Curt J., DeCesar, Megan E., DeGan, Dallas, Demorest, Paul B., Deng, Heling, Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ellis, Justin A., Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Gersbach, Kyle A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gultekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Hourihane, Sophie, Islo, Kristina, Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Klein, Tonia C., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Littenberg, Tyson B., Liu, Tingting, Lommen, Andrea, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., Mattson, Margaret A., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Natarajan, Priyamvada, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Petrov, Polina, Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Schult, Levi, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Sun, Jerry P., Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, van Haasteren, Rutger, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Wang, Qiaohong, Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology - Abstract
We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3\sigma$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4\sigma$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures. Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org
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- 2023
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42. Learning a Structural Causal Model for Intuition Reasoning in Conversation
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Chen, Hang, Liao, Bingyu, Luo, Jing, Zhu, Wenjing, and Yang, Xinyu
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Computer Science - Computation and Language - Abstract
Reasoning, a crucial aspect of NLP research, has not been adequately addressed by prevailing models including Large Language Model. Conversation reasoning, as a critical component of it, remains largely unexplored due to the absence of a well-designed cognitive model. In this paper, inspired by intuition theory on conversation cognition, we develop a conversation cognitive model (CCM) that explains how each utterance receives and activates channels of information recursively. Besides, we algebraically transformed CCM into a structural causal model (SCM) under some mild assumptions, rendering it compatible with various causal discovery methods. We further propose a probabilistic implementation of the SCM for utterance-level relation reasoning. By leveraging variational inference, it explores substitutes for implicit causes, addresses the issue of their unobservability, and reconstructs the causal representations of utterances through the evidence lower bounds. Moreover, we constructed synthetic and simulated datasets incorporating implicit causes and complete cause labels, alleviating the current situation where all available datasets are implicit-causes-agnostic. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed method significantly outperforms existing methods on synthetic, simulated, and real-world datasets. Finally, we analyze the performance of CCM under latent confounders and propose theoretical ideas for addressing this currently unresolved issue.
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- 2023
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43. How to Enhance Causal Discrimination of Utterances: A Case on Affective Reasoning
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Chen, Hang, Luo, Jing, Yang, Xinyu, and Zhu, Wenjing
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Computer Science - Computation and Language ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence - Abstract
Our investigation into the Affective Reasoning in Conversation (ARC) task highlights the challenge of causal discrimination. Almost all existing models, including large language models (LLMs), excel at capturing semantic correlations within utterance embeddings but fall short in determining the specific causal relationships. To overcome this limitation, we propose the incorporation of \textit{i.i.d.} noise terms into the conversation process, thereby constructing a structural causal model (SCM). It explores how distinct causal relationships of fitted embeddings can be discerned through independent conditions. To facilitate the implementation of deep learning, we introduce the cogn frameworks to handle unstructured conversation data, and employ an autoencoder architecture to regard the unobservable noise as learnable "implicit causes." Moreover, we curate a synthetic dataset that includes i.i.d. noise. Through comprehensive experiments, we validate the effectiveness and interpretability of our approach. Our code is available in https://github.com/Zodiark-ch/mater-of-our-EMNLP2023-paper., Comment: accepted via EMNLP2023-main
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- 2023
44. FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead
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Chen, Kang, Han, Tao, Gong, Junchao, Bai, Lei, Ling, Fenghua, Luo, Jing-Jia, Chen, Xi, Ma, Leiming, Zhang, Tianning, Su, Rui, Ci, Yuanzheng, Li, Bin, Yang, Xiaokang, and Ouyang, Wanli
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Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ,Computer Science - Machine Learning ,Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Abstract
We present FengWu, an advanced data-driven global medium-range weather forecast system based on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Different from existing data-driven weather forecast methods, FengWu solves the medium-range forecast problem from a multi-modal and multi-task perspective. Specifically, a deep learning architecture equipped with model-specific encoder-decoders and cross-modal fusion Transformer is elaborately designed, which is learned under the supervision of an uncertainty loss to balance the optimization of different predictors in a region-adaptive manner. Besides this, a replay buffer mechanism is introduced to improve medium-range forecast performance. With 39-year data training based on the ERA5 reanalysis, FengWu is able to accurately reproduce the atmospheric dynamics and predict the future land and atmosphere states at 37 vertical levels on a 0.25{\deg} latitude-longitude resolution. Hindcasts of 6-hourly weather in 2018 based on ERA5 demonstrate that FengWu performs better than GraphCast in predicting 80\% of the 880 reported predictands, e.g., reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) of 10-day lead global z500 prediction from 733 to 651 $m^{2}/s^2$. In addition, the inference cost of each iteration is merely 600ms on NVIDIA Tesla A100 hardware. The results suggest that FengWu can significantly improve the forecast skill and extend the skillful global medium-range weather forecast out to 10.75 days lead (with ACC of z500 > 0.6) for the first time., Comment: 12 pages
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- 2023
45. Flexural vibration control of functionally graded poroelastic pipes via periodic piezoelectric design
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Ding, Yu-Hao, Chen, Zhi-Qiang, Liang, Feng, Lee, Heow-Pueh, Yu, Hao, Lin, Sheng-Can, and Luo, Jing
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- 2024
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46. First-Principles Calculation Study on the Structure and Electrochemical Properties of Nb- and V-Doped Ni-Rich Ternary (NCM911) Cathode Materials
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Lin, Junxiong, Li, Minglin, Lv, Zhi, Luo, Jing, Wu, Bo, and Hong, Ruoyu
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- 2023
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47. Reliable optimization of arbitrary functions over quantum measurements
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Luo, Jing and Shang, Jiangwei
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Quantum Physics - Abstract
As the connection between classical and quantum worlds, quantum measurements play a unique role in the era of quantum information processing. Given an arbitrary function of quantum measurements, how to obtain its optimal value is often considered as a basic yet important problem in various applications. Typical examples include but not limited to optimizing the likelihood functions in quantum measurement tomography, searching the Bell parameters in Bell-test experiments, and calculating the capacities of quantum channels. In this work, we propose reliable algorithms for optimizing arbitrary functions over the space of quantum measurements by combining the so-called Gilbert's algorithm for convex optimization with certain gradient algorithms. With extensive applications, we demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms with both convex and nonconvex functions., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 30 references
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- 2023
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48. The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries
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Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Blecha, Laura, Blumer, Harsha, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Bécsy, Bence, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chen, Siyuan, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, DeCesar, Megan E., Demorest, Paul B., Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ellis, Justin A., Ferrara, E. C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nathan, Gentile, Peter A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Key, Joey Shapiro, Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G, Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McLaughlin, Maura A., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Pol, Nihan S., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena, Spiewak, Renée, Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Swiggum, Joseph K., Sydnor, Jessica, Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Walsh, Gregory, Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia
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Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology - Abstract
Pulsar timing array collaborations, such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), are seeking to detect nanohertz gravitational waves emitted by supermassive black hole binaries formed in the aftermath of galaxy mergers. We have searched for continuous waves from individual circular supermassive black hole binaries using the NANOGrav's recent 12.5-year data set. We created new methods to accurately model the uncertainties on pulsar distances in our analysis, and we implemented new techniques to account for a common red noise process in pulsar timing array data sets while searching for deterministic gravitational wave signals, including continuous waves. As we found no evidence for continuous waves in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strain amplitude of continuous waves emitted by these sources. At our most sensitive frequency of 7.65 nanohertz, we placed a sky-averaged limit of $h_0 < $ $(6.82 \pm 0.35) \times 10^{-15}$, and $h_0 <$ $(2.66 \pm 0.15) \times 10^{-15}$ in our most sensitive sky location. Finally, we placed a multi-messenger limit of $\mathcal{M} <$ $(1.41 \pm 0.02) \times 10^9 M_\odot$ on the chirp mass of the supermassive black hole binary candidate 3C~66B., Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures. Accepted by ApJL
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- 2023
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49. Effects of Parental Marital Status on Negative Emotions and Nonsuicidal Self-injury Behaviors in Middle School Students: a Multicenter Cross-sectional Study
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REN Xiaohong, CEN Yu, LUO Jing, ZHOU Yuling, HE Jinlong, LIN Cen, WU Dapeng, LUO Jiaming
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depression ,anxiety ,emotional stress ,nonsuicidal self-injury behaviors ,parental marital status ,negative emotions ,middle school students ,psychology, adolescent ,Medicine - Abstract
Background Effects of parental marital status on nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) behaviors and negative emotions in adolescents have been rarely reported, and the existing research sample size is relatively small. Objective To explore the association of parental marital status with negative emotions and NSSI in middle school students, to provide a reference for the prevention and control of NSSI in them. Methods A stratified random sampling method was used to conduct the questionnaire survey on students from 20 townships and 67 middle schools in Nanchong City and its surrounding areas from March to April 2020. The investigators input the questionnaire into the WJX.cn to generate QR codes, which were distributed to parents or student guardians by schools. The questionnaire, consisting of the General Information Questionnaire, Ottawa Self-injury Inventory (OSI) and the Chinese version of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21), was used to calculate the detection rates of NSSI, depression, anxiety and stress in middle school students to analyze the relevant factors affecting NSSI, depression, anxiety and stress in middle school students. Results A total of 8 785 students from 23 middle schools were surveyed, and 8 606 valid questionnaires were finally obtained, with a valid recovery rate of 98.0%. Among the 8 606 middle school students, there were 4 540 (52.8%) males, 4 066 (47.2%) females; 5 937 (69.0%) junior high school students, 1 028 (11.9%) senior high school students and 1 641 (19.1%) vocational high school students; 7 274 (84.5%) students in two-parent families, 787 (9.1%) students in divorced single-parent families, and 545 (6.4%) students in families with divorced and remarried parents. The detection rates of NSSI, depression, anxiety and stress in middle school students were 5.6% (486/8 606), 21.9% (1 884/8 606), 26.8% (2 305/8 606) and 12.3% (1 060/8 606), respectively. The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that among all middle school students, compared with boys, girls had a higher risk of NSSI (OR=2.363, 95%CI=1.946-2.868) and anxiety (OR=1.195, 95%CI=1.086-1.315) ; compared with junior high school students, vocational high school students had a higher risk of NSSI (OR=1.847, 95%CI=1.494-2.284), depression (OR=1.886, 95%CI=1.667-2.134), anxiety (OR=1.857, 95%CI=1.141-1.532) and stress (OR=1.527, 95%CI=1.309-1.781) ; compared with middle school students in two-parent family, students in divorced single-parent family had a higher risk of NSSI (OR=2.194, 95%CI=1.669-2.834), depression (OR=1.563, 95%CI=1.326-1.843), anxiety (OR=1.573, 95%CI=1.346-1.839) and stress (OR=1.417, 95%CI=1.153-1.741), students in families with divorced and remarried parents also had a higher risk of NSSI (OR=2.207, 95%CI=1.638-2.975), depression (OR=1.863, 95%CI=1.543-2.249), anxiety (OR=1.796, 95%CI=1.499-2.153) and stress (OR=1.821, 95%CI=1.453-2.282) ; compared to middle school students who are taken care of by their parents for a long time, those who are taken care of by their father alone, mother alone or grandparents alone for a long time had a higher risk of NSSI, depression and anxiety (by father alone: OR=2.045, 95%CI=1.366-3.062; OR=1.633, 95%CI=1.289-2.145; OR=1.373, 95%CI=1.069-1.762; by mother alone: OR=1.772, 95%CI=1.141-2.751; OR=1.435, 95%CI=1.095-1.882; OR=1.513, 95%CI=1.174-1.951; by grandparents alone: OR=2.465, 95%CI=1.918-3.168; OR=1.783, 95%CI=1.513-2.100; OR=1.843, 95%CI=1.577-2.154), students who were taken care of by mother alone or by grandparents alone had a higher risk of stress (OR=1.604, 95%CI=1.166-2.207; OR=1.678, 95%CI=1.375-2.049) (P
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- 2024
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50. Toward to agricultural green development by multi-objective zoning and nitrogen nutrient management: a case study in the Baiyangdian Basin, China
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Xiaomeng ZHANG, Xiangwen FAN, Wenqi MA, Zhaohai BAI, Jiafa LUO, Jing YANG, Ling LIU, Jianjie ZHANG, Lin MA
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agricultural green development ,baiyangdian basin ,environmental emission threshold ,partition management ,Agriculture (General) ,S1-972 - Abstract
● Development of a novel multi-indicator partition optimization method of nitrogen nutrient management.● Calculation of multi-indicator environmental thresholds for ammonia volatilization, nitrogen surplus and soil carrying capacity in various regions within the basin.● Recommendation of various regional spatial optimization methods to enhance nutrient management in crop–livestock systems.Although China has achieved great advancements toward national food security, the country is still confronted with a range of challenges, including natural resource stress, imbalanced diets and environmental pollution. Optimized management of crop–livestock systems is the key measure to realize agricultural green transformation. However, optimized management of crop–livestock systems that use multi-objective zoning is lacking. This study employed a multi-objective zoning management approach to comprehensively analyze four indicators: ammonia volatilization, nitrogen surplus, soil carrying capacity and ecological red line area. With its significant ecological integrity and a strong emphasis on sustainability, the Baiyangdian Basin serves as a unique and suitable test case for conducting analyses on multi-objective nutrient optimization management, with the aim to facilitate the agricultural green transformation. This study finds that less than 8% of the area in the Baiyangdian Basin meet the acceptable environmental indicator standard, whereas around 50% of the area that had both nitrogen surplus and ammonia volatilization exceeded the threshold. Implementation of unified management, that is, the same management technique across the study areas, could result in an increase of areas meeting environmental indicator thresholds to 21.1%. This project developed a novel multi-indicator partition optimization method, in which distinct measures are tailored for different areas to satisfy multiple environmental indicators. Implementation of this method, could potentially bring more than 50% area below the threshold, and areas with ammonia emissions and nitrogen surplus could be reduced to 15.8%. The multi-indicators partition optimization method represents a more advanced and efficiency-oriented management approach when compared to unified management. This approach could be regarded as the best available option to help China achieve agricultural transformation to improve efficient production and reduce environmental pollution. It is recommended that current policies aimed at nutrient management toward sustainable agricultural development should shift toward the application of multi-indicators partition optimization.
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- 2024
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