Search

This work is part of a study on the impact of black carbon (BC) transfer from various sources to the Arctic on climate change in the region. The main objectives are to develop software for analyzing the Lagrangian transport of air particles; assessing the deposition of aerosol particles by precipitation and the concentration of particles in the atmosphere; and obtaining, for specific conditions of atmospheric circulation during severe fires in the years of maximum reduction in the Arctic sea ice area, estimates of the relative residence time of air particles emitted by these fires over the Arctic Basin (AB), as well as the proportion of BC deposited in the AB from fires. This software package contains a module for calculating Lagrangian trajectories from a 4-dimensional wind array (u, v, ω, t), which contains horizontal wind components and an analog of vertical speed available from reanalysis, as well as modules for the postprocessing of the found trajectories, which allow us to obtain in a given area the residence time estimates, 3-dimensional BC concentration, and BC deposition on the surface, also using reanalysis data and some empirical constants. Since the main decrease in the Arctic sea ice area occurred in 2 years, 2007 and 2012, it was supposed to analyze the fires of these years; however, in 2007, there were no great fires, and in 2012 one fire was much larger than the others (K-217, March–June). This fire was chosen for the experiments: several sets of trajectories were obtained for it, corresponding to various options for choosing the initial conditions, and estimates were obtained for the fraction of trajectories that passed over the Arctic basin, the time spent there, and the fraction of BC deposited in the AB. Together, these estimates led to the conclusion that Siberian fires can hardly be the leading cause of the accelerated melting of Arctic sea ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to assess the probability of black carbon (BC) transfer from high-intensity model forest fires in the taiga zone, determine the fields of concentrations and deposition of BC on the ice–snow surface, and assess the BC contribution to climate change in the Arctic. Model regions with the highest probability of large forest fires (the Komi Republic, Krasnoyarsk krai, and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)) are selected based on an analysis of remote monitoring data. The probability of a BC cloud from model fires transferring to the snowy-ice surface of the Arctic is analyzed using the HYSPLIT trajectory model. The probability of a particle emitted from the boreal taiga zone to traverse the sea ice-covered part of the Arctic Ocean is found to be between 1–10%. Effects of BC (the balance of shortwave radiation) on the Arctic climate are estimated on the basis of global climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). According to the results of model experiments, the effect of BC on the balance of shortwave radiation from all model fires in the Northern Hemisphere is 0.11 W m–2 under cloudy conditions and 0.21 W m–2 in a clear sky. The estimated effect on the shortwave radiation balance is a 1.5–2% larger income when compared to the scenario without emission sources. The simulation results showed that the effect of BC emissions from forest fires on the ice-covered Arctic region is negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct and indirect effects of global emissions of black carbon (BC) on the evolution of Arctic climate has been well documented. The significance of within-Arctic emissions of BC is less certain. In light of this, an ensemble of scenarios are developed that simulate the hypothetical diversion of 75% of current and projected shipping traffic from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This experiment shows that BC from ships results in a small change in climate forcing that does not influence the Arctic-wide trajectory of change. However, the shift in forcing from the Suez route to the NSR not only influences regional evolution of sea ice cover, but also results in regional feedbacks that in some locations amplify (e.g. Greenland Sea) and in other locations damp (e.g. Labrador Sea) the sea ice retreat under anthropogenic climate change. The primary mechanism underlying these regional effects is a shift in circulation rather than direct thermodynamic forcing. The most significant impacts are distal from the emissions sources, which is likely to have policy implications as the expansion of industrial and transportation activities into the Arctic is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]