Model Estimates of Black Carbon Transfer Probabilities from Russian Forest Fires to Arctic and Its Possible Impact on Climate.

The aim of this study is to assess the probability of black carbon (BC) transfer from high-intensity model forest fires in the taiga zone, determine the fields of concentrations and deposition of BC on the ice–snow surface, and assess the BC contribution to climate change in the Arctic. Model regions with the highest probability of large forest fires (the Komi Republic, Krasnoyarsk krai, and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)) are selected based on an analysis of remote monitoring data. The probability of a BC cloud from model fires transferring to the snowy-ice surface of the Arctic is analyzed using the HYSPLIT trajectory model. The probability of a particle emitted from the boreal taiga zone to traverse the sea ice-covered part of the Arctic Ocean is found to be between 1–10%. Effects of BC (the balance of shortwave radiation) on the Arctic climate are estimated on the basis of global climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). According to the results of model experiments, the effect of BC on the balance of shortwave radiation from all model fires in the Northern Hemisphere is 0.11 W m–2 under cloudy conditions and 0.21 W m–2 in a clear sky. The estimated effect on the shortwave radiation balance is a 1.5–2% larger income when compared to the scenario without emission sources. The simulation results showed that the effect of BC emissions from forest fires on the ice-covered Arctic region is negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]