Search

Paper, a porous-fibrous network, is made up of hydrophilic fibres, which are notably susceptible to deformations due to variations in moisture content. The response of paper sheets to full or partial wetting, based on the water-induced fibre swelling, has mostly been predicted in the past using highly idealised two-dimensional network geometries. The purpose of the present paper is to establish how precisely the two-stage process of determining effective hygro-expansivity under uniform wetting by a two-dimensional model followed by bending analysis using a continuum model predicts the curl of a fully three-dimensional network. In the present multi-scale modelling work, the moisture-induced homogenised sheet scale curl, derived from hygro-elastic deformations using non-uniform moisture profiles, is analysed based on an idealised non-woven three-dimensional fibrous network finite element model. First, the effective paper sheet swelling properties, derived computationally for the uniform wetting condition, are compared with analytically homogenised hygro-elastic properties. Whereas the analytically predicted elastic modulus has an inaccuracy of only ∼ 5%, the hygro-expansivity coefficient is over-predicted by roughly a third for a network with straight fibres. The difference is smaller if waviness of the fibres and wrap-around in the fibre bonds are taken into account. Fibre alignment turns out to have little influence. Subsequently, paper sheet curl predictions made by the analytical model are compared with that computed from the three-dimensional network model. The inaccuracy of the fully analytical model, based on the two-dimensional network description, relative to the fully detailed three-dimensional computational model with straight fibres is on the order of 40%–50%. The fidelity of the simple model is primarily constrained by the inaccuracy of the effective hygro-expansion coefficient. If the expansivity extracted from the three-dimensional simulations under uniform wetting is inserted, the inaccuracy drops to less than 10%. The continuum bending description hence performs adequately, provided it is based on a reliable estimation of the uniform expansion behaviour of the material. • Hygroscopic curl of paper sheets may be predicted using homogenised models. • We assess the accuracy of such predictions. • As a reference simulations of an idealised three-dimensional fibre network are used. • The predictions are accurate provided an accurate hygro-expansivity is used. • Two-dimensional network models may not be sufficient for this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thin-walled tubular deployable composite boom (DCB) can realize folding and deploying functions, and it has a good application prospect in space field. This paper investigates the folding behaviour of the tubular DCB by analytical modeling. Based on the Archimedes' helix, the geometrical model of the DCB was established. By combining equilibrium equation and energy principle, an analytical model to predicted the folding moment versus rotational displacement of the DCB was presented. The failure indices in the equal-sense and opposite-sense folding processes were calculated utilizing Tsai‐Hill and maximum stress criteria. Analytical results agreed well with experimental and numerical results. At last, the influence of geometric parameters (i.e., radius, central angle and thickness of cross-section) on the folding behaviour of the DCB was further studied using the analytical model. [Display omitted] • An analytical model is presented to predict the folding behaviour of the deployable composite boom (DCB). • Failure indices are calculated using two criteria in equal-sense and opposite-sense folding processes. • The analytical model is validated against experimental and numerical results, showing good prediction accuracy. • Geometric parameters (radius, central angle, and thickness) significantly affect the folding behavior of the DCB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy production throughout low-voltage grids has gradually increased in electrical distribution systems, therefore introducing small energy producers - prosumers. This paradigm challenges the traditional unidirectional energy distribution flow to include disperse power production from renewables. To understand how energy usage can be optimized in the dynamic electrical grid, it is important to understand the behavior of prosumers and their impact on the grid's operational procedures. The main focus of this study is to investigate how grid operators can obtain an automatic data-driven system for the low-voltage electrical grid management, by analyzing the available grid topology and time-series consumption data from a real-life test area. The aim is to argue for how different consumer profiles, clustering and prediction methods contribute to the grid-related operations. Ultimately, this work is intended for future research directions that can contribute to improving the trade-off between systematic and scalable data models and software computational challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Advanced neuro-fuzzy modeling, namely an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was employed to develop models for the prediction of suspended solids (SS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal of a full-scale wastewater treatment plant treating process wastewaters from a paper mill. In order to improve the network performance, fuzzy subtractive clustering was used to identify model''s architecture and optimize fuzzy rule, meanwhile principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the input variable dimensionality. Input variables were reduced from six to four for COD and SS models, by considering PCA results and linear correlation matrices among input and output variables. The results indicate that reasonable forecasting and control performances have been achieved through the developed system. The minimum mean absolute percentage errors of 1.003% and 0.5161% for CODeff and SSeff could be achieved using ANFIS. The maximum correlation coefficient values for CODeff and SSeff were 0.9912 and 0.9882, respectively. The minimum mean square errors of 1.2883 and 0.0342, and the minimum RMSEs of 1.135 and 0.1849 for CODeff and SSeff could also be achieved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Whether recruiters accurately infer personality from resumes is currently a topic of great interest in the light of technological advancements and new types of resume formats (like video resumes) that are increasingly being used. Based on predictions from the realistic accuracy model and the media richness theory, we investigated whether real recruiters ( N = 296) are able to infer applicants' Big Five personality characteristics more accurately from video and audio resumes than from less information-rich resume formats (like paper resumes) and whether applicants' perceived attractiveness (physical/vocal) affects accuracy judgments. As expected and with the exception of extraversion, personality was not accurately judged from paper resumes. Interestingly, information-rich resume formats and applicants' perceived attractiveness did not affect accuracy judgments. Despite recruiters' stubborn reliance on their capacity to infer personality from resume information, study findings clearly showed that different types of resumes –also the new, more information-rich ones– are no valid tools to infer candidates' personality from. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This study improved the citation prediction accuracy by applying the BP neural network. • The BP neural network significantly outperformed the other six baselines (XGBoost, RF, LR, SVR, KNN, and RNN). • Five essential features were determined for citation prediction. Predicting the citation counts of academic papers is of considerable significance to scientific evaluation. This study used a four-layer Back Propagation (BP) neural network model to predict the five-year citations of 49,834 papers in the library, information and documentation field indexed by the CSSCI database and published from 2000 to 2013. We extracted six paper features, two journal features, nine author features, eight reference features, and five early citation features to make the prediction. The empirical experiments showed that the performance of the BP neural network is significantly better than those of the six baseline models. In terms of the prediction effect, the accuracy of the model at predicting infrequently cited papers was higher than that for frequently cited ones. We determined that five essential features have significant effects on the prediction performance of the model, i.e., 'citations in the first two years', 'first-cited age', 'paper length', 'month of publication', and 'self-citations of journals', and the other features contribute only slightly to the prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Dynamic academic networks are introduced for predicting future influence of entities. • Every researcher or venue per year is treated as a separate entity. • Seven types of relations among papers, authors, and venues are extracted and used for prediction. • Both publication age and recent citations are considered for a balanced treatment of old and new papers. Performance evaluation and prediction of academic achievements is an essential task for scientists, research organizations, research funding bodies, and government agencies alike. Recently, heterogeneous networks have been used to evaluate or predict performance of multi-entities including papers, researchers, and venues with some success. However, only a minimum of effort has been made to predict the future influence of papers, researchers and venues. In this paper, we propose a new framework WMR-Rank for this purpose. Based on the dynamic and heterogeneous network of multiple entities, we extract seven types of relations among them. The framework supports useful features including the refined granularity of relevant entities such as authors and venues, time awareness for published papers and their citations, differentiating the contribution of multiple coauthors to the same paper, amongst others. By leveraging all seven types of relations and fusing the rich information in a mutually reinforcing style, we are able to predict future influence of papers, authors and venues more precisely. Using the ACL dataset, our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach considerably outperforms state-of-the art competitors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A shear-lag approach to the prediction of the tensile strength of paper is outlined and examined. It is demonstrated that transition of fiber strength to paper strength requires long fibers for sheets with weak fiber–fiber bonds, or low relative bonded area. Fiber pull-out is encountered even for highly bonded sheets. Predictions of tensile strength for papers of the same fiber length, but with different beating degrees, and for papers with different fiber lengths and beating degrees, are in quantitative agreement with previously published data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

3D human motion prediction, predicting future poses from a given sequence, is an issue of great significance and challenge in computer vision and machine intelligence, which can help machines in understanding human behaviors. Due to the increasing development and understanding of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and the availability of large-scale human motion datasets, the human motion prediction has been remarkably advanced with a surge of interest among academia and industrial community. In this context, a comprehensive survey on 3D human motion prediction is conducted for the purpose of retrospecting and analyzing relevant works from existing released literature. In addition, a pertinent taxonomy is constructed to categorize these existing approaches for 3D human motion prediction. In this survey, relevant methods are categorized into three categories: human pose representation , network structure design , and prediction target. We systematically review all relevant journal and conference papers in the field of human motion prediction since 2015, which are presented in detail based on proposed categorizations in this survey. Furthermore, the outline for the public benchmark datasets, evaluation criteria, and performance comparisons are respectively presented in this paper. The limitations of the state-of-the-art methods are discussed as well, hoping for paving the way for future explorations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the collapse behavior of square paper tubes and the influence of tensile-compressive yield asymmetries of paper tube materials by combining the theoretical and experimental methods. An approximate energy absorption theoretical model is developed to predict the mean crushing force of square paper tubes subjected to axial loading. Besides, combined with the remarkable linear regularity of the experimental results, the numerical curve of the effective crushing distance ratio of paper tubes is obtained to improve the applicability of the proposed model. Then the theoretical results taking account of effective crushing distance are in excellent agreement with the experimental results. The proposed model can be used not only for the prediction of energy absorption characteristics of paper tubes in a logistics environment, but also to guide the protective packaging structure design with paper tubes. • The collapse behavior of square paper tubes under quasi-static compression is studied. • The influence of tensile-compressive yield asymmetries of paper tube materials. • A theoretical model is proposed to predict the mean crushing force of paper tubes. • An effective crushing distance curve is obtained to improve the model accuracy. • The theoretical predictions are in good agreement with experimental results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The shear properties of aramid paper are characterized for the first time.. • Characterizing shear properties of paper makes the prediction of honeycombs better. • The failure mode map of paper honeycombs subjected to complex loads is obtained. Aramid paper honeycomb cores have been widely used in lightweight structures. However, shear properties of aramid paper can hardly be obtained accurately due to the shear buckling of the paper. Therefore, we make the paper into a laminate to prevent buckling and apply the v-notched beam test method to the laminate to obtain the in-plane shear properties of aramid paper. The shear strength and failure strain of aramid paper are characterized experimentally for the first time. The properties are then used in finite element simulations to study the shear behaviors of paper honeycombs and the good agreement with the experimental results indicates the validity of the shear properties. Furthermore, the failure mode map of the paper honeycomb subjected to combined shear and compressive loads is obtained, which presents the importance of the accurate characterization on the shear properties of the paper. This characterization method can also be applied to other types of paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pupae of Indian paper wasp, Ropalidia marginata, produce silk that covers the opening of each cells in their hives, which probably helps in thermoregulation and providing mechanical stability. In this study an attempt has been made to investigate the amino acid composition and protein structure of Indian wasp silk using bioinformatics and experimental tools. The amino acid analysis of the regenerated solubilized wasp silk revealed high alanine and serine content that increases the propensity of α-helical and random coil and/or β-sheet structure respectively. The Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionization-Time Of Flight/Time Of Flight based protein fingerprinting analysis of the regenerated solubilized wasp silk revealed its short-range sequences. The protein modeling studies indicated the presence of predominant coiled coil α-helical and random coil structure in the protein isolated from wasp hive caps, similar to previous reports from the Vespoidea family. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopic analysis and X-ray diffraction analysis of the native paper wasp cap revealed the presence of mix of coiled coil α-helix and β-sheet structure in outer regions; whereas inner region contains tannin/intermolecularly bonded hydroxyl groups of polyphenols. The present study is first report to generate valuable insights about the chemical composition and secondary structure prediction of Indian paper wasp silk and highlight on nature's novel modus operandi to engineer unique functional fibrous matrix. Image 1 • First report on silk produced by pupae of Indian paper wasp. • High alanine and serine corresponding to coiled coil α-helix and β-sheets. • Tannin and Transglutaminase induced crosslinking makes wasp silk insoluble in chaotropic agent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper utilizes novel connected vehicle (CV) emulated data to predict real-time crash potential for arterials. • The CV emulated data are flexible to obtain. Different speed-related variables are estimated based on the CV emulated data to depict continuous traffic conditions • The results proved the feasibility of using CV emulated data for real-time crash potential prediction • The proposed methods can be applied to other types of vehicles Real-time crash potential prediction could provide valuable information for Active Traffic Management Systems. Fixed infrastructure-based vehicle detection devices were widely used in the previous studies to obtain different types of data for crash potential prediction. However, it was difficult to obtain data in large range through these devices due to the costs of installation and maintenance. This paper introduced a novel connected vehicle (CV) emulated data for real-time crash potential prediction. Different from the fixed devices' data, CV emulated data have high flexibility and can be obtained continuously with relatively low cost. Crash and CV emulated data were collected from two urban arterials in Orlando, USA. Crash data were archived by the Signal for Analytics system (S4A), while the CV emulated data were obtained through the data collection API with a high frequency. Different data cleaning and preparation techniques were implemented, while various speed-related variables were generated from the CV emulated data. A Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) neural network was trained to predict the crash potential in the next 5−10 min. The results from the model illustrated the feasibility of using a novel CV emulated data to predict real-time crash potential. The average and 50th percentile speed were the two most important variables for the crash potential prediction. In addition, the proposed LSTM outperformed Bayesian logistics regression and XGBoost in terms of sensitivity, Area under Curve (AUC), and false alarm rate. With the rapid development of the connected vehicle systems, the results from this paper can be extended to other types of vehicles and data, which can significantly enhance traffic safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This editorial is an annex, essentially an amplification of earlier Animal Feed Science and Technology (AFST) editorials which focused on analytical and statistical issues of papers submitted for publication in AFST. This amplification is needed because, since publication of those editorials, there has been a sharp increase in papers submitted to AFST (particularly in vitro gas, ruminal in sacco, continuous culture fermenter and mini-silo studies), in which there have been substantive disagreements among authors, reviewers and editors as to what, exactly, constitutes acceptable statistical replicates as opposed to pseudo replicates. In this editorial, the Co-Editors in Chief of AFST provide clarification of their view relative to use of analytical observations in statistical analyses in papers submitted for consideration for publication in AFST. If the objective is to compare feeds and from the results, make inferences to populations, only multiple samples of each feed represent an acceptable feed base. This suggests that means comparisons based on repeated assays of the same sample, whether by chemical, physical or microbiological methods, will almost certainly be rejected by the CEIC. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In an era of increasing energy demands and environmental concerns, optimizing energy consumption within buildings is crucial. Despite the vast improvements in HVAC and lighting systems, plug loads remain an under-studied area for enhancing building energy efficiency. This paper studies smart plug active operating mode detection, plug-level load forecasting, and plug scheduling methodologies. This research leverages a unique dataset from the University of California, San Diego, consisting of readings from over 150 smart plugs in several office buildings for more than a year, notably during the post-Covid era. This dataset is made publicly available. A comprehensive literature review on plug, i.e. , appliances operating mode detection is presented. Novel unsupervised learning approaches are applied to identify plug operating modes. A pipeline integrating the detected modes with forecasting and scheduling is developed, aiming at building energy consumption reduction. Our findings offer valuable insights and promising results into smart plug management for energy-efficient buildings. • A novel year-long dataset of power readings from 169 office smart plugs is introduced. • The first review of plug load mode detection methods and terminology is presented. • The paper proposes an unsupervised method to identify plugs load operating modes. • The proposed smart plug scheduling pipeline reduces energy consumption by 20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantitative prediction and control of assembly stress are crucial for the accuracy of precision optical instruments during their manufacturing process. As a typical optical component, the multipoint bonded flat lens is widely used in precision optical instruments, in which the main assembly stress (i.e., radial adhesive stress) and its induced nonuniform stress field in the lens vary with environmental parameters and time. These factors ultimately determine the accuracy and stability of such precision instruments. Effective prediction of the radial adhesive stress is important for bonding parameter optimization and accuracy enhancement but remains difficult to obtain due to the lack of direct measurement devices and effective prediction methods. Here, a novel prediction method is presented to estimate the radial adhesive stress applied on a multipoint bonded flat lenses. First, a quantitative characterization method (QCM) is developed to concisely describe the nonuniform stress field in a lens using quantitative characterization parameters (QCPs). Then, based on the QCM and the theoretical model established in our previous work (Xiong et al., 2022), a prediction method is developed for the radial adhesive stress applied on a lens by analyzing the stress field in the lens. In this method, a backpropagation neural network is constructed to obtain the mapping relationship between the key QCPs of the stress field and the radial adhesive stress applied on the lens. Finally, an experimental verification of the prediction method is carried out. This paper proposes a novel method to predict the radial adhesive stress for multipoint bonded optical lenses, which can be adopted to monitor the variation characteristics of assembly stress in optical instruments during the entire life cycle and then further employed to optimize the bonding parameters during the lens manufacturing process. This paper attempts to construct a direct mapping relationship between assembly quality and assembly parameters for precision instruments, supporting the quantitative optimization of assembly parameters and quantitative control and prediction of assembly quality during the manufacturing and working process. [Display omitted] • A quantitative characterization method to describe the stress field in a lens is proposed. • Quantitative features of the stress field in multipoint bonded lenses are revealed. • The radial adhesive stress is predicted by analyzing the stress field in the lens. • A mapping relationship between assembly quality and assembly parameter is constructed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of air pollution on public health is substantial, and accurate long-term predictions of air quality are crucial for early warning systems to address this issue. Air quality prediction has drawn significant attention, bridging environmental science, statistics, and computer science. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the current research status and advances in air quality prediction methods. Deep learning, a novel machine learning approach, has demonstrated remarkable proficiency in identifying complex, nonlinear patterns in air quality data, yet its application in air quality prediction is still relatively nascent. This paper also conducts a systematic analysis and summarizes how cutting-edge deep learning models are applied in air quality prediction. Initially, the historical evolution of air quality prediction methods and datasets is presented. This is followed by an examination of conventional air quality prediction techniques. A thorough comparative analysis of progress made with both traditional and deep learning-based prediction methods is provided. This review particularly focuses on three aspects: temporal modeling, spatiotemporal modeling, and attention mechanisms. Finally, emerging trends in the field of air quality prediction are identified and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilization of agricultural and food wastes for biohydrogen generation is a hot research topic. In this paper, biohydrogen generation potentials from wheat, maize, barley, rice and potato production, consumption, associated losses, and household food waste generation in Turkey is estimated till 2030 using novel semi-empirical holistic models based on different scenarios. It was estimated that up to 90 thousand tonnes of biohydrogen could be produced from household food wastes in Turkey in 2030. This amount of biohydrogen would be worth 1.5 billon US$ and generate nearly 0.8 billion US$ of net return. In addition, this study clearly shows that there is a great potential for economic gain from agricultural and food waste based biohydrogen generation in Turkey. In conclusion, the methodology developed in this study could be used by researchers around the world to estimate local and national level biohydrogen generation potentials from agricultural and food wastes. [Display omitted] • This paper examines biohydrogen potentials from agricultural and food wastes. • Holistic per capita models for estimating annual biohydrogen production potentials. • Annual production and sale costs are estimated. • Annual net returns from biohydrogen generation are calculated. • The results highlight recommendations for future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fault prediction is the process of using data analysis and machine learning models to anticipate potential defects or faults in the software system. Using only the base machine learning models for software fault prediction leads to limited performance, difficulty in handling non-linear relationships and imbalanced data, inadequate feature representation, and limited complexity handling. Hence, in order to overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a new technique for the selection of classifiers that forms a heterogeneous ensemble. The main goal is to remove or trim out the classifiers that show poor performance compared to the other base classifiers, which can result into a more effective ensemble and can produce better results. The algorithm proposed in this paper finds a set of classifiers that can perform better than using all the classifiers. The challenge that was faced was how to identify the poor-performing classifiers. This challenge is dealt with by performing an experiment using different threshold values to choose the trimmed set of classifiers. For evaluation of the proposed model, 8 different benchmark software fault datasets were used, which are taken from PROMISE and the Apache repository, and AUC is used as the performance measure. The results obtained after the experimental analysis demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm compared to the traditional approaches, which used all the base classifiers. There is a significant increase in the AUC values for 6 datasets out of 8, while using the average of probabilities and majority voting, it was seen that there is improvement in 7 out of 8 datasets used. The best-performing dataset by using the average of probabilities is ARC, where the AUC values increase from 0.6505 to 0.694, and while using majority voting, the best-performing dataset is XALAN, where the AUC values increase from 0.5455 to 0.679. From this, it can be seen that the proposed ensemble approach achieved higher AUC values for the tested datasets when compared to the base machine learning classifiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning performs well in many problems. However, the tendency to generate predictions that violate theoretical knowledge makes it difficult to apply to practical processing. To resolve this situation, this paper combines domain knowledge with a data-driven model, proposes a theory-guided machine learning framework based on a parameter transfer strategy, and applies it to the width prediction of plates after multiple passes of hot rolling. The framework applies a swarm optimization algorithm to the original theoretical model and generates numerous highly-physical consistent samples. The established deep neural network (DNN) model is trained with simulated data, and the parameters are fine-tuned using a parameter transfer strategy combined with actual data to ensure excellent adaptation to the actual environment based on adequate learning of theoretical knowledge. In tests, the proposed model had the best overall prediction performance in this paper. Meanwhile, the developed model is consistent with the existing perception of rolling theory. This allows for the quick and reliable application of machine learning models in production. [Display omitted] • A novel theory-guided machine learning framework for width prediction of rolled plates. • Pre-training of the model using the data generated by the optimized theoretical model. • The proposed model has the best accuracy in both sufficient and less actual samples. • The variable influence of the proposed model is consistent with theoretical perceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper precisely estimates the looming demand for hydrogen within the transportation sector, spanning 14 pivotal G20 nations from 2022 to 2050, anchored in the global vehicle hydrogen market penetration rate. Employing a robust techno-economic modeling methodology and leveraging Geographic Information System (GIS) for enriched visualization, it unveils distinct environmental dividends across three thoughtfully devised scenarios: Business- as -Usual, Moderate, and Aggressive. Findings herald India and China as pinnacles of hydrogen demand, with South Korea and Japan tailing closely. The study forecasts the energy consumption for solar hydrogen production in G20 countries to oscillate between 3.02 and 2.89 million GWh in 2022, while production costs are anticipated to range from $8.47/kg to $10.01/kg. In an assertive scenario, the paper illuminates a pathway towards achieving a significant CO 2 reduction, unmasking environmental savings of up to a staggering 48%, equivalent to 1.5 million mtCO 2 , by 2050. [Display omitted] • Hydrogen demand of G20 countries is analyzed using GIS and techno-economic models. • The projected adoption rates of hydrogen vary among the G20 countries. • Solar energy is crucial in determining each region's annual energy demand. • China, US, and India have the highest solar potential throughout the year. • The environmental analysis shows 850–1.5 million mtCO2 total emissions by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy sources, driven by the global concern for climate change and the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, are gaining increasing importance. Among them, solar energy stands out as a crucial renewable source and accurate solar irradiance forecasting is vital for its effective utilisation. Deep learning (DL) techniques have emerged as state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting methods in past years. However, traditional models that are widely used have inferior accuracy in forecasting. To bridge this gap, this paper presents an improved state-of-the-art model that leverages the convolutional property to forecast the time series data. We got a reduction of 8.32% in MAE compared to the base model. The paper's findings highlight the potential of DL-based approaches to significantly improve the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Treat a problem of predicting the demand for staple food and feed grain. • A novel fractional discrete dynamic multivariate grey model is proposed. • The model considers the effects of linear correction term & random disturbance term. • Sailfish optimizer is used to optimize the fractional order accumulation parameter. • Empirical analysis shows the proposed method performs better than similar methods. Increasing geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather and other emergencies are continuously affecting global agriculture and food systems, threatening national and regional food security. Therefore, it is particularly important to accurately predict national or regional grain demand. In this paper, a novel fractional discrete dynamic multivariate grey model is proposed to predict grain demand. Based on the discrete modeling idea, the model considers the impacts of the change trend of the related factor sequences, adds the linear correction term and the random disturbance term, and applies the fractional order accumulation strategy, which improves the accuracy and robustness. An algorithm based on sailfish optimizer is introduced to optimize the fractional order accumulation parameter of the model. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, the fitting and prediction results of the novel and the existing three models are compared. The novel model can better fit and predict the demand for staple and feed grain, which is superior compared to other models. The predictions show that demand for staple food and urban feed grain in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will increase to varying degrees, while rural feed grain demand will remain stable overall. This paper will help the government to better grasp the changes in the structure and quantity of staple food and feed grain demand in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and formulate efforts to ensure food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Development of a numerical tool for the static and fatigue delamination simulation able to adapt the load step size to properly estimate the delaminated area. • Numerical application according to literature Double Cantilever Beam benchmark. • Assessment of the effectiveness of the developed tool through comparison against experimental results. • Comparison of the SMXB tool against standard VCCT and Cohesive Surface. This paper deals with the Smart Time XB (SMXB) procedure, a parametric 3D methodology to simulate the delamination evolution in composite structures. The SMXB method has been developed almost ten years ago and, over time, has been improved with new features to become a forefront method compared with the state of the art. The SMXB is based on the Virtual Crack Closure Technique, which is nowadays implemented in the principal and most used Finite Elements (FE) commercial software. The main peculiarity of the SMXB is its capability to overcome the limits in terms of load step size and elements size dependences typical of the VCCT approach in mimic the delamination propagation. The SMXB procedure has been validated over years considering different structures and load conditions. The last development, which make the SMXB even more complete and attractive, is the ability to simulate the fatigue-driven delamination. Indeed, the Paris Law has been introduced in the core structure of the SMXB to make it able to mimic the delamination evolution under cyclic loading conditions. This manuscript has the intent to describe the theory behind this peculiar procedure and its evolution toward fatigue simulation. An experimental literature Double Cantilever Beam benchmark has been used to prove the robustness and effectiveness of this computational methodology, highlighting its main peculiarities. Single leg bending example, representative of a mixed mode interaction, has also been presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A DC-Gaussian process regression model is used to the prediction of Dst index. • DC-GPR model has the best stability among the three models among DC-GPR, DC-SVM, and DC-NN models • DC-GPR model exhibits the better forecasting performance than DC-SVM and DC-NN models in Dst forecasting. In this paper we apply a class of Bayesian machine learning model, Gaussian Process Regression, to the prediction of Dst index by using 80 intense geomagnetic storms data (Dst ⩽ - 100 nT) from 1995 to 2014. The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of Gaussian process regression model with Support Vector Machine model combined together with Distance Correlation (DC-SVM) and Neural Network model combined together with Distance Correlation (DC-NN) (Lu et al., 2016). For comparison, we estimate the correlation coefficients (CC), the RMS errors, the absolute value of difference in minimum Dst (Δ Dst min ) and the absolute value of difference in minimum time (Δ t Dst ) between observed Dst and predicted one.In order to compare the prediction effects and the generalizability of the three models to magnetic storm events, we combined 70 intense magnetic storm events and 10 super large magnetic storm events into one group. It is shown that DC-GPR model exhibits the better forecasting performance than by DC-SVM model and DC-NN model in magnetic storm. The CC, the RMS errors, the Δ Dst min , and the Δ t Dst of GPR are 0.65, 35.45 nT , 16.12 nT and 1.16 h , respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel combined interval prediction algorithm is proposed in this paper. • Hybrid feature selection strategy is designed in the proposed system. • Multi-objective optimization mechanism reflects strong search capabilities. • Four interval prediction models cover the inherent modes of sequence. Traditional point prediction approaches can not reflect the uncertainty, which brings greater risks to decision-makers. To fill this gap, this paper extends a feature selection strategy that relies solely on correlation and redundant feature judgment, proposes a novel combined interval prediction algorithm, 3-Mcip (Combined Interval Prediction Based on Maximize Relevancy, Minimize Redundancy and Maximize Synergy) system, and solves the tradeoff between prediction accuracy and interval width. This system first designs a hybrid feature selection strategy to optimally select candidate variables and reduce model input redundancy. Secondly, the structure of the four ANN models is improved to accommodate the results of feature selection, and an optimization mechanism is introduced to search for the Pareto optimal solution set. In order to measure the comprehensive performance of the 3-Mcip system, hourly power load data and related candidate variables from Pittsburgh and Washington, D.C are considered. The numerical results show that the 3-Mcip system has coverage rates of 53.3333, 90.1667, and 99.4479 for Site 1 at different levels of interval width coefficients, which not only achieves perfect prediction of power load but also analyzes uncertainty. It is also helpful for power system managers to better capture the fluctuation range of future load and improve the flexibility of smart grid dispatching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an industrial-friendly approach based on physics-informed Bayesian machine learning for probabilistic inference and refinement of stability predictions in milling. The knowledge from physics principles and theoretical models is gathered into a substructure-based framework and enables dedicated updating and exchange of models on a substructure level. The Bayesian learning algorithm utilizes this framework as a basis to simultaneously interact with multiple machine and process configurations that share substructures, leading to federated and transfer learning over a network of machine tools on a production site. Moreover, the paper further elaborates on the Bayesian perspective to anticipate the potential usefulness of given experimental data in improving the model accuracy by quantifying information gain for two primary purposes: Firstly, recursive online learning can manage computational resources by processing only the most informative data points that may be collected during arbitrary cuts. Secondly, active learning leverages the information gain to dynamically adapt a sequential data collection, leading to accelerated learning with minimal labeled data. The experimental validations confirm that the proposed approaches lead to effective learning and reliable predictions of milling stability, outperforming traditional deterministic methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty on professional economic forecasts. Using the predictions of four variables sourced from the Bloomberg survey, we find that macroeconomic uncertainty, a proxy for the complexity of the forecasting task, is associated with high disagreement and low accuracy. By contrast, the results show that financial uncertainty is associated with low disagreement and high accuracy, which suggests that financial uncertainty encourages forecasters to adhere to the consensus to avoid large forecast errors. Furthermore, we find that the forecaster rank moderates the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty, indicating that high-ability forecasters can better navigate periods of high uncertainty. This study advances the understanding of forecasting behavior under uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High precision ionospheric Total Electron Content(TEC) prediction is of great significance for improving the accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS), preventing natural disasters, and ensuring wireless communication. Given the varying frequencies of TEC signals, a hybrid CEEMDAN-BiLSTM-PSO-LSSVM-FE model for predicting ionospheric TEC content is proposed in this paper. Firstly, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) is used to decompose the extracted hourly TEC sequence and calculate the fuzzy entropy (FE) of the subsequences. Then, the signal is divided into high-frequency and low-frequency parts based on the fuzzy entropy value, for the high-frequency component, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network (BiLSTM) is used for prediction; for the low-frequency component, Particle Swarm Optimization-based Least Squares Support Vector Machine (PSO-LSSVM) is used for prediction. The hourly TEC values collected from six evenly distributed GPS stations in China are used as the main input variable for the proposed model, with solar and geomagnetic activity data used as auxiliary data, using the TEC data from the previous 48 h to forecast the TEC content for the next hour. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparing it with other models under different geographical locations, seasons, solar and geomagnetic activity conditions. Experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms other models, with a correlation coefficient R2 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.99 and 0.20 TECU, respectively. The model effectively overcomes the problem of low TEC prediction accuracy and can provide more precise ionospheric delay correction services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A new Weibull log-logistic mixture distribution accumulation generation operator is established. • A novel grey model with multiple interaction effects is established. • The robustness and stability of the proposed method is proved and validated. • A new parameter estimation method is designed. • The proposed method is superior to other seven benchmark models in four case studies. Forecasting the failure of hard disk drives is important in server operation and has attracted increasing attention. However, current disk drive warning systems suffer from high false positive rates and high resource consumption when dealing with hard disk drive overall failure. Therefore, to accurately and stably predict hard disk drive overall failure, this paper develops a new Weibull Log-Logistic grey forecasting model with multiple interaction effects. Firstly, to capture and fit the trend of hard disk failure data flexibly and reduce the volatility, a new accumulation generation operator is established by introducing the Weibull Log-Logistic mixture distribution. Secondly, the proposed model constructs a multiple interaction term to describe the nonlinear relationship of the dependent variables on the system behavior series and the multiple interaction effects between the independent variables. Then, the parameter estimation method is designed to improve the fitting accuracy of the new model, in which linear estimation method, nonlinear estimation method, and meta-heuristic optimization algorithm are used to calculate the parameter values according to their categories. Finally, four varieties of hard disk drive data sets from BackBlaze are selected as study cases to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that the mean MAPE of the proposed method is 2.1181 %, 2.2306 %, 8.1712 %, and 4.3417 %, respectively, corresponding to (hard disk drives ST8000NM0055, ST12000NM0007, ST10000NM0086, and ST14000NM0138), and the average value of the evaluation metrics are optimal in all competing models. Furthermore, it is observed that the number of reallocated sectors has the greatest influence in causing the failure of hard disk drives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breast cancer is a multifactorial heterogeneous disease and the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in women; its diagnosis and treatment require clinical sensitivity and a comprehensive disciplinary research approach. The expression of different receptors on tumor cells not only provides the basis for molecular typing of breast cancer but also has a decisive role in the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of breast cancer. To date, immunohistochemistry (IHC), which uses invasive histological sampling, has been extensively used in clinical practice to analyze the status of receptors and to make an accurate diagnosis of breast cancer. As an invasive assay, IHC can provide important biological information on tumors at a single point in time, but cannot predict future changes (due to treatment or tumor mutations) without additional invasive procedures. These issues highlight the need to develop a non-invasive method for predicting receptor status. The emerging field of radiomics may offer a non-invasive approach to identification of receptor status without requiring biopsy. In this paper, we present a review of the latest research results in radiomics for predicting the status of breast cancer receptors, with potential important clinical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a three-stage online deep learning model for time series based on the ensemble deep random vector functional link (edRVFL). The edRVFL stacks multiple randomized layers to enhance the single-layer RVFL's representation ability. Each hidden layer's representation is utilized for training an output layer, and the ensemble of all output layers forms the edRVFL's output. However, the original edRVFL is not designed for online learning, and the randomized nature of the features is harmful to extracting meaningful temporal features. In order to address the limitations and extend the edRVFL to an online learning mode, this paper proposes a dynamic edRVFL consisting of three online components, the online decomposition, the online training, and the online dynamic ensemble. First, an online decomposition is utilized as a feature engineering block for the edRVFL. Then, an online learning algorithm is designed to learn the edRVFL. Finally, an online dynamic ensemble method, which can measure the change in the distribution, is proposed for aggregating all layers' outputs. This paper evaluates and compares the proposed model with state-of-the-art methods on sixteen time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing quality requirements, especially for safety-critical products such as in medical technology, manufacturing companies face the challenge, that the quality inspection of component characteristics may become a crucial factor for economic production. For increasing the ratio of correctly identified scrap without increasing the amount of physical inspection, prediction models pose a valuable tool. Prediction models in manufacturing build process models through process data collected during the manufacturing process. The prediction models can for example be used to predict the product quality from the process data, which enables the substitution of physical quality inspections through virtual inspections. Before selecting suitable prediction models, checkpoints in the manufacturing process and inspection sequence (MPIS) for integrating the prediction models profitably have to be identified. Therefore, the paper aims to provide a methodology to generate integrated quality strategies for MPIS that combine physical inspection with the prediction of quality characteristics. Furthermore, a methodology for the economic evaluation of the quality strategies as decision support is provided. Since the number of prediction models available for predicting quality based on process data is manifold, the explicit recommendation for the implementation of a certain prediction model is not the focus of this paper. The methodology presented rather focuses on the identification of suitable checkpoints in the MPIS for prediction model integration. For generating quality strategies suitable checkpoints in the manufacturing process sequence have to be identified. Therefore, three aspects are considered, the influence of the manufacturing process on the change in a characteristic and the overall importance of a characteristic for the component function as well as the ability of the characteristic and process for being predicted. A prediction recommendation is calculated that enables the derivation of quality strategies as a combination of physical and virtual inspection for different characteristics in different checkpoints. For the economic evaluation of the derived quality strategies two cases for supplementing physical inspection with prediction models to either compensate for the alpha- or beta-error rate are presented. The most reasonable quality strategy is chosen according to its economic potential. For validation, the applicability of the methodology for integrating prediction models in manufacturing process and inspection sequences to a use case of medical technology is demonstrated successfully. It is shown that the methodology supports users in identifying possible quality strategies and their economic evaluation for manufacturing process and inspection sequences as a basis for the decision regarding quality strategies to be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of PV power is essential to ensuring the safe and economic operation of power systems with high PV penetration. The current PV power prediction scheme considering the spatio-temporal correlation characteristics is relatively simple in data processing, resulting in low prediction accuracy; at the same time, the missing data also poses a great problem to the prediction. Therefore, in order to improve the prediction accuracy and solve the problem of missing data, this paper proposes a PV power spatio-temporal prediction model considering time-shift correction and a multi-station information fusion strategy Firstly, relevant power station clusters are constructed using hierarchical clustering, and a similar daily data filtering model considering the variation characteristics of daily power characteristic curves is proposed to filter the data; Secondly, multiple BP neural network models are constructed and multiple reference power stations with high relevance are predicted using irradiance information; Thirdly, the prediction results of multiple reference power stations are input to the data processing module for time-shift analysis and spatial correlation information fusion correction, which solves the missing data problem of the target power station to be predicted. Finally, it is input to One-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network(1DCNN) to achieve the power prediction of the target power station with missing data. The simulation analysis shows that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a sunny day forecast is 3.31%; the RMSE of a non-sunny day forecast is 9.65%, which proves the accuracy of this two-layer neural network is higher compared to other model structures, so the proposed scheme has certain reliability and accuracy in the prediction of PV power with missing data. • The paper examines the current issues and challenges with PV power forecasting. • A similar daily data filter considering the various characteristics of the daily PV power output is proposed. • A BP-1DCNN network considering spatio-temporal sharing is designed to predict the PV power of the missing data plants. • A time-shift correction and spatially relevant information fusion strategy are used to connect the two networks. • The spatio-temporally corrected network prediction model has higher accuracy and solves the problem of missing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new methodology to obtain prediction regions of the output of a dynamical system. The proposed approach uses stored past outputs of the system and it is entirely data-based. Only two hyperparameters are necessary to apply the proposed methodology. These scalars are chosen so that the size of the obtained regions is minimized while fulfilling the desired empirical probability in a validation set. In this paper, methods to optimally estimate both hyperparameters are provided. The provided prediction regions are convex and checking if a given point belongs to a computed prediction region amounts to solving a convex optimization problem. Also, approximation methods to build ellipsoidal prediction regions are provided. These approximations are useful when explicit descriptions of the regions are necessary. Finally, some numerical examples and comparisons for the case of a non-linear uncertain kite system are provided to prove the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. • A method to compute prediction regions for multivariate systems is presented. • These regions contain future values of the outputs with a certain probability. • The proposed method does not need any knowledge of the system dynamics. • A procedure to obtain ellipsoidal approximations of the regions is also presented. • The results are illustrated by means of numerical examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing multimedia content and social activities, moderation problems increase. There are different approaches to moderation and automation. However, they have limitations in terms of usage in real-time. The analysis of scientific papers revealed that most of the more common approaches solve the task of detection instead of prediction by considering the final utterance. For this reason, calls are unprotected in toxic languages, and online broadcasts can be unpredictable. In this work, a new way for automatic speech moderation in terms of dynamic word prediction was suggested. The considered task involves the analysis of the auditory and textual channels of speech. Words can have different meanings depending on the context, so in solving the problem it is planned to consider profanity, which is socially unacceptable regardless of the context. In this paper approaches for working with speech stream in the task of profanity prediction were proposed. It can be possible to have smaller latency with usage of audio features. We also suggest the pipeline for real-time (with the ability to predict the sequence with a higher duration than the latency of the processing) prediction for multimodal prediction, which compensates the latency of ASR systems. As a result, in this paper, we compared different solutions for the next color prediction task for English speech and reached the F1 score of 86.6 for 3 class prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accidental leakage of gaseous hydrogen from hydrogen refueling station facilities has the potential to result in a large fire and explosion catastrophe. The ability to forecast the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes in real-time is crucial for monitoring the distribution of plume concentrations and mitigating the risk of fire and explosion. The utilization of deep learning has been extensively employed in a diverse range of spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. However, these approaches encounter limitations in accurately quantifying uncertainty when predicting spatiotemporal concentrations and plume boundaries. This research paper introduces a novel model called DPSTNN_H 2 Evolution, which is a deep probabilistic spatial-temporal neural network designed for forecasting the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes. The benchmark dataset is constructed by the implementation of numerical simulations pertaining to the inadvertent leak of hydrogen within a hydrogen refueling station. The findings of the study indicate that incorporating quantified uncertainty information might enhance the precision of plume boundaries and the resilience of plume concentrations when predicting the spatiotemporal development of hydrogen. By employing Monte Carlo sampling with a sample size of m = 100 and a dropout rate of p = 0.1 , the model demonstrates the ability to provide real-time inference for 10 instances of plumes, while maintaining a high level of accuracy with R2 = 0.9829. In comparison to the current state-of-the-art model, the proposed model demonstrates superior accuracy and robustness in forecasting the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes. In general, our proposed model has the potential to serve as a dependable option for the development of a digital twin for emergency management of hydrogen refueling stations. • Probabilistic spatial-temporal neural network model for hydrogen plume evolutions is proposed. • Normalized uncertainty contours and uncertainty intervals to improve accuracy and robustness. • Numerical experiment of hydrogen leakage and dispersion in refueling station are conducted. • Optimal hyper-parameters of the proposed model are determined • Comparison between the proposed model with point-estimation based model is conducted [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a trend prediction analysis method based on the evolution of knowledge graph fusion for the analysis of price fluctuation trends with limited information and lacking historical data. Based on an actual business case, the article first establishes a knowledge graph and corresponding data model based on the price analysis and application scenarios in business decision-making and based on the collected data. Afterward, the evolution mechanism model and the corresponding theoretical basis are described. After that, the feasibility of the proposed method is proved theoretically and via simulation verification. This method does not require tags and historical data as necessary support, thereby reducing the data requirements of machine learning predictions, and can be used as a supplementary solution to complete trend analysis with less requirement on data curation. The method's stability and feasibility have been substantiated through experiments, showcasing distinct effects on the trend emanating from different interrelated knowledge graphs. Recognizing the potentially conflicting constraints between diverse correlations, we undertake a comprehensive evaluation of each map's influence. This evaluation is achieved through knowledge graph fusion processing, enabling a predictive assessment under the collective impact of various factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current inflation rates have significantly been increasing construction project costs globally. Thus, it is crucial to consider potential inflationary trends when estimating the cost at completion of prolonged projects. However, the absence of literature providing guidance on analyzing inflation trends and adjusting the ongoing project cost performance factor is a gap that needs filling. This study proposes a framework for estimating ongoing project costs based on trend and seasonality analysis of the project cost performance through the Holt-Winters method. The proposed framework also incorporates the estimation of project completion time and is applied to a real case study to assess its efficacy. The results are compared with the ones obtained through pre-existing index-based methods. This paper seeks to improve the accuracy of project cost estimation and management in challenging and uncertain economic environments by providing an alternative to the traditional cost at completion forecasting approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper delves into the critical aspect of demand forecasting within the broader context of optimizing drop trailer management in volatile networks, with a specific focus on a large pallet manufacturer's supply chain operation. The study underscores the importance of accurate demand forecasting as a foundational element for informing subsequent optimization models. The main objective is to enhance our sponsor company's supply chain efficiency by accurately predicting future trailer requirements, which is crucial for the subsequent development of an effective inventory control and optimization model. This research utilizes forecasting methods like Gradient Boosted Trees and highlights the challenges of traditional forecasting methods in the context of our sponsor company's complex and dynamic supply chain network. The demand forecast is meant to inform the development of optimization models crucial for ensuring the effective allocation and management of trailer assets, ultimately leading to cost reductions and improved service levels within our sponsor company's network. The study contributes significantly to supply chain management literature by showcasing the application of sophisticated forecasting techniques in a real-world context and setting the stage for the development of robust optimization models in the domain of drop trailer management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human age and gender prediction from facial images has garnered significant attention due to its importance in various applications. Traditional models struggle with large-scale variations in unfiltered images. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have emerged as effective tools for facial analysis due to their robust performance. This paper presents a novel CNN approach for robust age and gender classification using unconstrained real-world images. The CNN architecture includes convolution, pooling, and fully connected layers for feature extraction, dimension reduction, and mapping to output classes. Adience and UTKFace datasets were utilized, with the best training and testing accuracies achieved using an 80% training and 20% testing data split. Robust image pre-processing and data augmentation techniques were applied to handle dataset variations. The proposed approach outperformed existing methods, achieving age prediction accuracies of 86.42% and 81.96%, and gender prediction accuracies of 97.65% and 96.32% on the Adience and UTKFace datasets, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper focuses on comparing two Machine Learning (ML) approaches—Time Series Analysis and a Feature-Based Prediction—for predicting traffic accident counts. Spanning the years 2005 to 2016 in Paris, the study leverages a comprehensive dataset that includes attributes such as weather conditions. Following dataset preprocessing and partitioning into training and test sets, the research systematically develops and evaluates these two contrasting ML modeling approaches. Furthermore, the study extends its comparison by evaluating the performance of various ML models, emphasizing the power of the proposed Neural Network (NN) model. Metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are employed to assess and contrast the predictive capabilities of each model. The results not only showcase the effectiveness of the neural network model but also elucidate its superiority over alternative ML approaches, particularly in the context of traffic accident prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model has attracted increasing attention due to its outstanding performance in dealing with mixed frequency data. However, most MIDAS model extension studies are based on statistical methods or machine learning models, which suffer from insufficient prediction performance and stability in small sample environments. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a novel mixed frequency sampling discrete grey model (MDGM(1, N)), which is a coupled form of the MIDAS model and discrete grey multivariate model. By adjusting the structure parameters, the model can be adapted to different sampling frequencies data, and degenerate into several types of grey models. Then, the unbiasedness and stability of the model are proved using the mathematical analysis method and numerical random experiment. The meta-heuristic algorithm is introduced to obtain the optimal weight parameters and the maximum lag order, improving the model's fitting ability to mixed frequency data. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the new model, a model evaluation system consisting of traditional evaluation metrics and a monotonicity test is established. Taking four hard disk drive failure datasets as research cases, the performance of the proposed model is compared with seven mainstream benchmark models. The results show that the proposed model has excellent applicability and outperforms other competition models in terms of validity, stability, and robustness. Furthermore, it is observed that the reported uncorrectable errors and the command timeout have a greater impact on hard disk drive failure. Finally, the new model is employed to forecast the failure of four hard disk drives. The forecasting results indicate that in the next four time points with a cycle of 21 days beginning in April 2023, the failure of the smaller capacity hard disk drives (0055 and 0086, corresponding to 8TB and 10TB) show a decreasing trend, reaching 67.442% and 89.7683%, respectively. The failure of the other larger capacity hard disk drives (0007 and 0138, corresponding to 12TB and 14TB) has increased, with a growth rate of 17.1016% and 123.7899%. [Display omitted] • A novel mixed frequency sampling discrete grey model is proposed. • The proposed model is proved to be unbiased and stable theoretically. • A Chimpanzee Optimization algorithm is introduced to globally search for weight parameters and maximum lag order. • A new model evaluation system for evaluating the effectiveness of prediction models is constructed. • The proposed model outperforms the other seven benchmark models in four case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The short-term forecast of photovoltaic (PV) power is crucial for the security and economics of power system operations. However, the fluctuation characteristics of the PV power, which are closely related to the meteorological factors, introduce inaccuracies in its forecast. Towards this end, the paper studies the effects of clustering analysis at long time scale and data reconstruction technique at short time scale on capturing PV power fluctuation characteristics. A short-term PV power forecasts method based on multi-scale fluctuation characteristics extraction (MFCE), which employs a path analysis to identify the relevance of meteorological factors with PV power at long time scale and a phase space reconstruction to analyze PV power fluctuation characteristics at short time scale, is proposed in this paper. The proposed MFCE methodology deploys a widely-used extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model to output the forecasting results. Both the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed methodology are verified by using the real data under the conditions of sunny and cloudy days of four seasons compared to traditional methodologies. • The multi-scale fluctuation characteristics are analyzed for PV power forecast. • Identify dominant meteorological factors affecting PV power by path analysis. • The hour-level fluctuation is reduced by using path analysis-based clustering. • The phase space reconstruction is used to reduce the minute-level fluctuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A time-evolving (or dynamic) social network is a network whose structure may change over time. The observed changes may refer to entities (for example, new members may join or existing members may leave the network) or connections between them (new relationships may be established or existing relationships may be broken). A number of studies have focused on the empirical analysis of time evolving networks to examine their properties. In this paper, the problem of link prediction is considered. It aims at predicting future connections between pairs of unconnected links based on existing current connections. A social network considered in the paper is an organizational social network, meant as a network where nodes represent employees or units of the organization, and edges between nodes represent formal or informal relations or information flow between them. The structure of our network is formed by digital communication between employees. The aim of the paper is to experimentally verify to what extent, if any, the similarity-based methods based on local or global information may support the process of predicting potential new (non-existent yet) connections between employees in a time-evolving organizational social network. Ten similarity methods based on local and global information have been considered and tested. As a result, the best similarity methods (candidates to be considered as good predictors of these future connections), have been suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]