Search

Air quality co-benefits are expected to occur with greater climate mitigation, however climate mitigation is not expected to occur in isolation of other socio-economic changes. Although modelling studies investigating these co-benefits are common, limited work uses the recently developed “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” which factor in the different patterns of climate mitigation, socioeconomic development and pollution control. Additionally, as the SSPs were designed for climate model ensembles, such as CMIP6, existing work usually uses global climate or earth system models with interactive chemistry simulated at relatively coarse horizontal resolution. These computational trade-offs may impact how effectively they model air quality at human exposure-relevant scales and may miss differing trends seen only at subregional scales.We have used the anthropogenic emissions inputs from different SSPs which have different mitigation patterns applied to climate change and air pollution in 2050 to drive a specialised Atmospheric Chemistry model (WRF-Chemv4.2) at 30km resolution over Europe. We compare these to a 2014 control simulation. We present the validation of this model setup, which suggests an overestimation of surface PM2.5 concentrations, largely driven by overestimated NO3 aerosol, but good agreement with O3 observations. We find that while significant potential for air quality co-benefits exists, these effects are non-linear, with both PM2.5 and O3 worsening in some locations and scenarios despite increased pollution control compared to the present. We also find notable spatial heterogeneity in the change of PM2.5 and O3 across Europe in some scenarios. Overall, however the results show that across Europe, scenarios with greater mitigation of climate change and air pollution show improvements in air quality that could lead to benefits to human health.

African mineral dust is transported many thousands of kilometres from its source regions and, because of its ability to nucleate ice, it plays a major role in cloud glaciation around the globe. The ice-nucleating activity of desert dust is influenced by its mineralogy, which varies substantially between source regions and across particle sizes. However, in models it is often assumed that the activity (expressed as active sites per unit surface area as a function of temperature) of atmospheric mineral dust is the same everywhere on the globe. Here, we find that the ice-nucleating activity of African desert dust sampled in the summertime marine boundary layer of Barbados (July and August, 2017) is substantially lower than parameterizations based on soil from specific locations in the Saharan desert or dust sedimented from dust storms. We conclude that the activity of dust in Barbados’ boundary layer is primarily defined by the low K-feldspar content of the dust, which is around 1 %. We propose that the dust we sampled in the Caribbean was from a region in West Africa (in and around the Sahel in Mauritania and Mali), which has a much lower feldspar content than other African sources across the Sahara and Sahel.

Dust particles from high latitudes have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and the environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants, and nutrient sources. Identifying the locations of local dust sources and their emission, transport, and deposition processes is important for understanding the multiple impacts of high-latitude dust (HLD) on the Earth's systems. Here, we identify, describe, and quantify the source intensity (SI) values, which show the potential of soil surfaces for dust emission scaled to values 0 to 1 concerning globally best productive sources, using the Global Sand and Dust Storms Source Base Map (G-SDS-SBM). This includes 64 HLD sources in our collection for the northern (Alaska, Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Sweden, and Russia) and southern (Antarctica and Patagonia) high latitudes. Activity from most of these HLD sources shows seasonal character. It is estimated that high-latitude land areas with higher (SI ≥0.5), very high (SI ≥0.7), and the highest potential (SI ≥0.9) for dust emission cover >1 670 000 km2, >560 000 km2, and >240 000 km2, respectively. In the Arctic HLD region (≥60∘ N), land area with SI ≥0.5 is 5.5 % (1 035 059 km2), area with SI ≥0.7 is 2.3 % (440 804 km2), and area with SI ≥0.9 is 1.1 % (208 701 km2). Minimum SI values in the northern HLD region are about 3 orders of magnitude smaller, indicating that the dust sources of this region greatly depend on weather conditions. Our spatial dust source distribution analysis modeling results showed evidence supporting a northern HLD belt, defined as the area north of 50∘ N, with a “transitional HLD-source area” extending at latitudes 50–58∘ N in Eurasia and 50–55∘ N in Canada and a “cold HLD-source area” including areas north of 60∘ N in Eurasia and north of 58∘ N in Canada, with currently “no dust source” area between the HLD and low-latitude dust (LLD) dust belt, except for British Columbia. Using the global atmospheric transport model SILAM, we estimated that 1.0 % of the global dust emission originated from the high-latitude regions. About 57 % of the dust deposition in snow- and ice-covered Arctic regions was from HLD sources. In the southern HLD region, soil surface conditions are favorable for dust emission during the whole year. Climate change can cause a decrease in the duration of snow cover, retreat of glaciers, and an increase in drought, heatwave intensity, and frequency, leading to the increasing frequency of topsoil conditions favorable for dust emission, which increases the probability of dust storms. Our study provides a step forward to improve the representation of HLD in models and to monitor, quantify, and assess the environmental and climate significance of HLD.