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The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is a direct consequence of structural changes in the polarity of the international system. Following the end of the Cold War, the US emerged as the dominant country in the system, making it relatively easy to pursue a foreign policy based on liberal principles, where state-building and social engineering were among the main principles. While some scholars consider the US withdrawal from Afghanistan a strategic failure of its foreign policy, this paper argues that such action was necessary due to fundamental changes in the constellation of forces in the international system. The main reason for this withdrawal is the economic growth of China and its power projection in Asia and other regions of the world. Therefore, similar US actions can be anticipated in the future. This paper adopts a structural realist approach as its primary theoretical framework and Afghanistan is used as the case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effects of anticipations of tax changes on economic activity through the release of tax news in the media in the United States. I provide a measure of anticipations by exploiting the content of television news. This information typically flows faster than standard measures of gross domestic product, thus I propose a mixed frequency dynamic factor model to estimate both the economic activity latent factor and the effects of anticipated tax shocks on it. I find that one-month-ahead anticipations of tax cuts significantly stimulate current economic activity while those of tax increases produce the opposite effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Recession led to a large decline in economic activity throughout the entire United States with significant variation in its severity across regions. Our paper examines the role of economic freedom in explaining these differences at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level. We use the Stansel (2013; 2019) MSA-level economic freedom index to analyze the relationship between institutional quality and economic outcomes throughout the crisis period. Using a panel dataset of 382 MSAs from 2002 to 2012, we find that economic freedom is associated with enhanced economic outcomes – lower unemployment rates, more employment per 100 persons, and higher income per capita. This holds true even when examining a cross-section of MSAs using data from the crisis period alone. We supplement these findings with a matching analysis where we find that MSAs that experienced meaningful increases in economic freedom in the five-year period before the Great Recession (2002–2007) had quicker recoveries – in terms of unemployment rates and income – than their matched counterfactuals from 2007 to 2012. Overall, our findings suggest that economic freedom did "lighten the blow" from the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests the accuracy and predictability of two term structure models using both yields-only and factor-augmented specifications focusing on the recent COVID-19 crisis. In addition, we test the predictive ability of the yield curve on economic activity for the United States and other advanced countries. We provide evidence that models with an enhanced information set, including COVID-19 factors, improve interest rate forecasts for this period. Also, we point out that term structure models can determine future variations in economic activity but are time- and country-sensitive. Finally, out-of-sample analysis reveals that the use of factor-augmented term structure models, to reflect the current economic and market conditions, improves their forecasting accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-induced recession began in March 2020 for the United States. We identify this turning point by applying a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to a real-time index of economic activity. Supporting evidence is also found from macroeconomic data releases and stock markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States, income and expenditure-side estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) (GDP I and GDP E ) measure "true" GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconciled quarterly estimates of true GDP. In this paper, we extend these methods to provide reconciled historical true GDP estimates at a monthly frequency. We do this using a Bayesian mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) involving GDP E , GDP I , unobserved true GDP, and monthly indicators of short-term economic activity. Our MF-VAR imposes restrictions that reflect a measurement-error perspective (i.e., the two GDP proxies are assumed to equal true GDP plus measurement error). Without further restrictions, our model is unidentified. We consider a range of restrictions that allow for point and set identification of true GDP and show that they lead to informative monthly GDP estimates. We illustrate how these new monthly data contribute to our historical understanding of business cycles and we provide a real-time application nowcasting monthly GDP over the pandemic recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consumers around the world give away billions of dollars annually in the form of voluntary payments (aka, tips) to service workers who have served them. This widespread and important economic activity varies across geographic areas within nations, but that geographic variability has been under-studied. This paper seeks to answer the question: "Are state differences in tipping attitudes and behavior attributable to state differences in motivations for tipping?" To that end, new measures of average tipping attitudes and motives in each of the states of the United States are developed, and their relationships with state tipping behaviors, as well as other theoretically relevant state-level measures, are tested. Results suggest meaningful and reliable state differences in attitudes toward and motivations for tipping, and that the latter differences underlie some, but not all, state differences in tipping behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the impact of the global economic activity, oil supply, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil inventory demand shocks on the expected aggregate skewness of the United States (US) economy, obtained based on a data-rich environment involving 211 macroeconomic and financial variables in the quarterly period of 1975:Q1 to 2022:Q2. We find that positive oil supply and global economic activity shocks increase the expected macroeconomic skewness in a statistically significant way, with the effects being relatively more pronounced in the lower regime of the aggregate skewness factor, i.e., when the US is witnessing downside risks. Interestingly, oil-specific consumption demand and oil inventory demand shocks contain no predictive ability for the overall expected skewness. With skewness being a metric for policymakers to communicate their beliefs about the path of future risks, our results have important implications for policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of 10 series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current‐quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020, with weaker performance in the second half. We document how the WEI responded to key events and data releases during the first 10 months of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the effect of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) on stock market volatility in the United States using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The study utilizes daily data from January 2020 to October 2022 on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) and IPO firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) their IPO dates during the same period. The GARCH model is employed to estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index stock prices after the IPOs announcements during the first day, first five days, and first ten days. The study finds that IPOs significantly impact volatility in the US market, and the effect is more pronounced in the short term. We discovered that IPOs after their announcements during the first five days have a negative impact on other stock prices in the S&P500 index. The effects are stronger for the first day of initial public offering come to the market while there is a negative impact on the 10th day of IPOs in the market but it is not statistically significant. The downward-sloping demand curve hypothesis is supported by these findings. These results have important implications for investors, market regulators, and policymakers. Investors should be aware of the potential for increased volatility during periods of IPO activity and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. Market regulators may need to consider implementing measures to mitigate the impact of IPOs on market volatility. Policymakers may also need to consider the potential economic effects of IPOs and the associated increase in market volatility to ensure a stable and efficient stock market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing empirical literature on how to measure uncertainty has emerged following the 2007–2008 financial crisis. This paper first reviews the different methods measuring uncertainty. Second, applying a principal component analysis (PCA) that includes the various measures of uncertainty provided by the literature, a monthly global measure of uncertainty for the United States on the period 1990–2020 is developed. If the first factor computes a general level of uncertainty, the second factor provides a switch between two natures of uncertainty: macroeconomic and financial. Applying a new SVAR framework where the identification of uncertainty shocks relies on event constraints , we get a negative effect of US general uncertainty on industrial production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the role of perceived trade-offs between human lives and economic benefits in shaping policy views. In an online experiment with a representative sample from the United States conducted during the early Covid-19 pandemic, we provide randomised information on the medium-run costs of restricting economic activity to mitigate infections. A one standard deviation lower perceived economic cost of lockdowns increases support by about twice as much as having a Covid at-risk condition, and by half as much as being a Democrat. Varying projected health benefits has a similar effect. Personal exposure to health risks reduces people's responsiveness to cost-benefit considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As of 2022, the share of US income accruing to labor is at its lowest level since the Great Depression. Updating previous studies with more recent observations, I document the continuing decline of the labor share for the United States, other countries, and various industries. I discuss how changes in technology and product, labor, and capital markets affect the trend of the labor share. I also examine its relationship with other macroeconomic trends, such as rising markups, higher concentration of economic activity, and globalization. I conclude by offering some perspectives on the economic and policy implications of the labor share decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this speculative article, I argue that the expansion of economic activity in space may offer a uniquely promising way to escape indefinitely from what economists call “secular stagnation,” a state of self-fulfilling, persistently sluggish economic growth that has increasingly threatened high-income countries. Economists have pointed to both supply-side and demand-side drivers of secular stagnation, and space as a focal point for investment can—at least in principle—address both. On the supply side, space is an unlimited frontier that, as have frontiers in the past, may inspire the individualism, innovation, and world-building needed to sustainably increase productivity and population growth. On the demand side, public investment toward increased economic activity in space could meaningfully add to aggregate demand if it reached historical peak benchmarks in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of the relationship between the reduction in malaria transmission and agricultural development in the United States. Exploiting exogenous geographic variations in malaria‐suitable weather conditions and using historical county data together with a robust quasi‐experimental approach, I show that the farm value per acre of arable land of more endemic counties increased by around eight percentage points after the eradication of the disease relative to less endemic counties. Using historical data on cropland distribution within the United States, I also find that arable land increased in high malaria‐risk areas. Finally, I shed light on the increased productivity of farmers as a potential channel. Robustness checks from geographic variations in malaria prevalence within neighboring counties and placebo treatments reinforce the positive effect of eradicating malaria on agricultural development in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the impact of commodity price uncertainty on the U.S. economic activity. Our analysis indicates that uncertainty in agricultural, energy and metals markets depresses economic activity in the United States. Uncertainty shocks in agricultural and metals markets have a more long‐lasting dampening effect on economic activity and its components, when compared to the effect of oil uncertainty shocks. Finally, we show that when accounting for the effects of macroeconomic and monetary factors, the negative dynamic response of economic activity to agricultural and metals uncertainty shocks remains unaltered, while the respective macroeconomic response to energy uncertainty shocks is significantly reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether the activities of lawyers might hamper economic growth has been hotly contested over the past three decades. Contradictory conclusions have flowed from evidence that typically has focused on the impact of lawyers on the growth rates of countries. Disputes over definitions and samples that vary among countries have colored portions of these debates. We surmount many of these issues by adopting a 50-state panel covering the period 2005-2018 for the United States and by utilizing widely accepted variables regarding economic activity and who is considered a lawyer. Further, we utilize two distinct measures of the activity of lawyers and find that an increased presence of lawyers reduces per capita real economic growth. Separately, we also find that an increased presence of lawyers reduces the level of per capita real income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive birds cause damage to economies, natural resources, and human safety across the globe. In the United States, rock doves (Columba livia), Eurasian collared doves (Streptopelia decaocto), rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri), monk parakeets (Myiopsitta monachus), common mynas (Acridotheres tristis), European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris), and house sparrows (Passer domesticus) are among the invasive and often harmful small-bodied birds inhabiting periurban habitats. The destructive nature of these species warrants a review of methods to reduce or eradicate populations along with methods to reduce damage when population eradication cannot be achieved. We reviewed damage management literature from these species' native and introduced ranges. Additionally, we used the behavior and ecology of these species to inform tool recommendations and potential efficacy under various damage scenarios, while being sensitive to cultural preferences and location of implementation (residential, commercial, and agricultural). Although this review focuses on invasive birds in the United States, it is applicable to other pest species across the globe. Our review highlights areas where research is needed to validate promising damage management methods (lethal control, fertility control, habitat modification, exclusionary methods, frightening devices, and chemical repellents). Where birds are invasive, integrated pest management techniques should focus on eradication or population reduction (toxicants, shooting, and trapping) to keep populations at levels where nonlethal tools can reduce damage. We acknowledge the efficacy of an eradication campaign depends on biological, environmental, and economic factors, along with social license for lethal removal. We recommend integrated pest management strategies including lethal and nonlethal tools specific to the damage problem. Sustained efforts to reduce invasive populations should be used along with integrated deterrent strategies for short-term damage relief. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study uses a new business cycle (BC) index and a nonlinear panel smooth transition regression model on quarterly data of 1538 bank holding companies of the United States to investigate response of capital adequacy ratios (CARs) to changes in economic activity. Our findings confirm the existence of nonlinear effects of BC on CARs. Although we use a nonlinear model and a new proxy of BC, our results about CARs are not only consistent with existing mainstream literature but also improve estimation and goodness of the estimation of CARs. The study outcome is useful for policymakers for CARs' standards adjustments during recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the contribution of loans, granted to different borrower groups, to economic activity in the United States over the period 1971q1–2018q4. In general, loans to households emerge as the most important driver of economic activity when compared to other borrower groups. Meanwhile, for loans in terms of scope, consumer credit has a prime role. Deep economic recessions occurred during the period considered, we focus on the recent global financial crisis (GFC) to reveal the role of the credit crunch. The analysis confirms that loans had a large negative effect during the GFC when compared to other concurrent shocks. Furthermore, a comparison with other periods in post‐war US history points to the specific role that loans played in this last crisis. The results are delivered through a historical decomposition analysis based on the estimation of a large VAR through Bayesian techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global supply chains have been an important factor in changing the organization of the global goods production and global economy. The pandemic has also brought negative effects on global supply chains, as we have seen a shortage of workforce and transport systems (maritime, air, land), while demand for mandatory products, such as sanitary ones, was rising. The blocking of supply chains has also affected the process of economic recovery, unbalancing the production sector, and fueling inflation. During this time, the European Union's reliance on the foreign imports it had both before the pandemic and after periods of trade imbalance, were brought to light, considerably amplified. Increasing autonomy has been a necessity of these conditions, and in order to optimize the resilience of its supply chains, the European Union is applying politics aimed at a wide diversification of suppliers, development of internal capabilities, support for a multilateral business environment based on a set of well-defined rules, and a good cooperation with the United States of America. The study carried out an in-depth analysis of relevant literature in order to identify the challenges for both the member-states of the European Union, and for other states such as Japan, the United States of America, South Korea, and Australia in terms of imbalances in the supply chains and dependencies on imports from China. We also identified the best practices and measures adopted during the pandemic that led to major trade imbalances. The research questions to which this study provides detailed answers to are: "How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected global supply chains?" and "What measures were taken globally in order to overcome the imbalances caused by the pandemic?" This study offers a clarification on the situation of global supply chains and brings, in the same analysis, a series of good practices and strategies to solve supply chain blockages and reducing the dependency on foreign exports that most states had before the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses the synchronisation of economic activity, financial stress and uncertainty in the United States by employing a wavelet‐based approach of cohesion. Being innovative in the choice of the methodological framework as well as underlying factors of interest, we employed the monthly data on the policy‐related uncertainty indexes, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and Kansas City Federal Reserve Financial Stress Index (KCFSI). Our key empirical findings suggest that the co‐movements of policy uncertainty, financial stress and economic activity are frequencies as well as time‐dependent. The uncertainty indices are found to be synchronised at lower and intermediate frequencies for all of the pairs. In the nexus between uncertainty and economic activity, financial stress plays a crucial role. Co‐movement of the policy uncertainty is observed to be more pronounced during the crisis periods though at different frequencies which indicated the usefulness of the proposed framework to analyse the implications of contemporaneous policy uncertainty and financial stress for the real economy. Concomitantly this informs the policy efforts to address the financial and economic instabilities which may arise as a consequence of financial stress and policy uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]