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The evolutionary dynamics of tree species are influenced by their specific climatic environments, and their ability to persist is determined by adaptive strategies such as broad climate tolerance, phenotypic plasticity or genetic differentiation. Biogeographical predictions indicate that populations located at the edges of their ranges are more likely to experience heightened vulnerability to climatic fluctuations due to approaching tolerance limits. However, if local phenotypic acclimation or genetic adaptation has taken place, trees near the edge of their range could demonstrate comparable sensitivity to freeze and drought as the rest of the sampled population. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty regarding the extent of developmental and evolutionary adjustments in climate sensitivity across the entire ranges of many tree species.Here, we document the biogeography of tree growth sensitivity to freeze and soil water and vapour pressure deficits during 1950–2018 using an extensive multi‐species tree‐ring dataset of 35,784 trees at 4535 sites covering boreal, temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests of Canada. We quantify the relationships between tree radial growth increment and seasonal climate variables and explore factors driving the observed patterns of annual growth and climate sensitivity such as species, regional climate and local site conditions, and tree age and size.Freeze and drought had widespread impacts on tree growth that were contingent on the presence of focal species in interaction with tree size. An indirect growth thermal limitation towards cold/wet edges, occurring through the site moisture conditions, was observed in seven widespread species (e.g. Picea glauca, Picea mariana and Larix laricina). Moreover, six species had negative drought impacts more strongly expressed towards their warm/dry edges (e.g. Abies balsamea, Betula papyrifera and Pseudotsuga menziesii). However, widespread Picea, Pinus and Populus species showed no indication of increased sensitivity to soil water conditions at these edges.Synthesis. Our findings support the idea of evolutionary or acclimatization adjustments in the development of populations in response to long‐term climate conditions experienced in their respective locations. This underscores the importance of incorporating phenotypic and genomic data into future analyses of climate change impacts, which would enhance our ability to predict potential ecological shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Baseline studies of small rodent populations in undisturbed ecosystems are rare. We report here 50 years of monitoring and experimentation in Yukon of a dominant rodent species in the North American boreal forest, the red‐backed vole Clethrionomys rutilus. These voles breed in summer, weigh 20–25 g, and reach a maximum density of 20 to 25 per ha. Their populations have shown consistent 3–4‐year cycles for the last 50 years with the only change being that peak densities averaged 8/ha until 2000 and 18/ha since that year. During the last 25 years, we have measured food resources, predator numbers, and winter weather, and for 1‐year social interactions, to estimate their contribution to changes in the rate of summer increase and the rate of overwinter decline. All these potential limiting factors could contribute to changes in density, and we measured their relative contributions statistically with multiple regressions. The rate of winter decline in density was related to both food supply and winter severity. The rate of summer increase was related to summer berry crops and white spruce cone production. No measure of predator numbers was related to winter or summer changes in vole abundance. There was a large signal of climate change effects in these populations. There is no density dependence in summer population growth and only a weak one in winter population declines. None of our results provide a clear understanding of what generates 3–4‐year cycles in these voles, and the major missing piece may be an understanding of social interactions at high density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the genetic makeup of Lutz spruce, a natural hybrid between white and Sitka spruce on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Microsatellites indicate 72% of individuals sampled had predominantly white spruce ancestry, whereas 14% had predominantly Sitka spruce ancestry; some individuals classified as white spruce had Sitka spruce plastid genotypes. As Picea mitochondria are maternally inherited and plastids are paternally inherited, it appears that white spruce was the ancestral seed parent of nearly all spruce on the western peninsula, whereas Sitka spruce alleles originated from pollen. Pollen records show that white spruce colonized the western peninsula ∼8500 YBP from glacial refugium, whereas Sitka spruce arrived on the eastern peninsula ∼4000 YBP after migrating up the Pacific coast. Our data suggest that Sitka spruce colonization west of the Kenai Mountains may have occurred not via seed dispersal but by long distance transport of wind-borne pollen and subsequent hybridization with established white spruce populations. Hybridization was an important mechanism that allowed Sitka spruce to expand the leading edge of its range in response to historical climate change. As the climate continues to warm, climate envelope modeling suggests Lutz spruce may ultimately displace white spruce on the western peninsula even as Sitka spruce is constrained to the eastern peninsula where it will continue to hybridize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under climate change circumstances, increasing studies have reported the temporal instability of tree growth responses to climate, which poses a major challenge to linearly extrapolating past climate and future growth dynamics using tree‐ring data. Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is a potential solution to this problem that is widely used in the dendrochronology field to project past or future temporal growth response trajectories from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the projected accuracy of the SFTS in the climate effects on tree growth remains uncertain. Here, we empirically test the SFTS method by comparing the effect of spatial and temporal climate variations on climate responses of white spruce (Picea glauca), which has a transcontinental range in North America. We first applied a response surface regression model to capture the variations in growth responses along the spatial climate gradients. The results showed that the relationships between growth and June temperature varied along spatial climate gradients in a predictable way. And their relationships varied mainly along with local temperate condition. Then, the projected correlation coefficients between growth and climate using SFTS were compared against the observed. We found that the growth response changes caused by spatial versus temporal climate variations showed opposite trends. Moreover, the projected correlation coefficients using the SFTS were significantly lower than the observed. This finding suggests that applying the SFTS to project the growth response of white spruce might lead to an overestimation of the degree of tree maladaptation in future climate scenarios. And the overestimation is likely to get weaker from Alaska and Yukon Territory in the west to Quebec in the east. Although this is only a case study of the SFTS method for projecting tree growth response, our findings suggest that direct application of the SFTS method may not be applicable to all regions and all tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growth and yield (G&Y) of forest plantations can be significantly impacted by maladaptation resulting from climate change, and assisted migration has been proposed to mitigate these impacts by restoring populations to their historic climates. However, genecology models currently used for guiding assisted migration do not account for impacts of climate change on cumulative growth and assume that responses of forest population to climate do not change with age. Using provenance trial data for interior lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta subsp. latifolia Douglas) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) in western Canada, we integrated Universal Response Functions, representing the relationship of population performance with their provenance and site climates, into top height curves in a G&Y model (Growth and Yield Projection System, GYPSY) to develop population-specific climate sensitive top height curves for both species. These new models can estimate the impact of climate change on top height of local populations and populations from a range of provenances to help guide assisted migration. Our findings reveal that climate change is expected to have varying effects on forest productivity across the landscape, with some areas projected to experience a slight increase in productivity by the 2050s, while the remainder are projected to face a significant decline in productivity for both species. Adoption of assisted migration, however, with the optimal populations selected was projected to maintain and even improve productivity at the provincial scale. The findings of this study provide a novel approach to incorporating assisted migration approaches into forest management to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As northern latitudes experience rapid winter warming, there is an urgent need to assess the effect of varying winter conditions on tree growth and forest carbon sequestration potential. We examined tree growth responses to variability in cold-season (November–- April) frequency of freeze days (FFD) over 1951 to 2018 using tree-ring data from 35,217 trees and 57 species at 4,375 sites distributed across Canada. We found that annual radial growth responses to FFD varied by species, with some commonalities across genera and clades. The growth of gymnosperms with late spring leaf-out strategies was negatively related to FFD; years with high FFD were most detrimental to the annual growth of Pinus banksiana, Pinus contorta, Larix lyalli, Abies amabilis, and Abies lasiocarpa. In contrast, the growth of angiosperms with early leaf-out strategies, namely, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera, was better in the coldest years, and gymnosperms with intermediate leaf-out timing, such as widespread Picea mariana and Picea glauca, had no consistent relationship to FFD. Tree growth responses to FFD were further modulated by tree size, tree age, regional climate (i.e., mean cold-season temperature), and local site conditions. Overall, our results suggest that moderately warming winters may temporarily improve the growth of widespread pines and some high-elevation conifers in western Canada, whereas warming winters may be detrimental to the growth of widespread boreal angiosperms. Our findings also highlight the value of using species-specific climate-growth relationships to refine predictions of forest carbon dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanistically predicting the evolutionary response of tree species to climate change requires an understanding of genetic variation in relevant traits. Here we compared the phenotypic and genetic variation in the Leaf Economics Spectrum (LES) traits and the response of gas exchange to vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in lodgepole pine (Pico) and white spruce (Pigl), an early and a late successional species dominating the boreal forests of western Canada.We measured gas exchange, foliar nitrogen and lamina mass to area ratio in 697 c. 30‐year‐old trees in two field progeny trials. We analysed the response of gas exchange rates to VPD using a novel quantitative genetic model, the function‐valued trait approach.Pico showed greater phenotypic variation in the LES traits and greater genetic variation in photosynthetic rate than Pigl, but the species showed no significant difference in their phenotypic correlations between the LES traits. Pico showed a less sensitive stomatal response to VPD than Pigl and no significant genetic variation in stomatal sensitivity. In contrast, Pigl showed a positive correlation between the genetic values of stomatal sensitivity to VPD and stomatal conductance under low VPD.Our study region is projected to see an increase in VPD with climate change; the less sensitive and genetically diverse stomatal response to VPD in Pico could make this species more vulnerable to climate‐change‐induced droughts. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With climate change, increasingly intense and frequent drought episodes will be affecting water availability for boreal tree species, prompting tree breeders and forest managers to consider adaptation to drought stress as a priority in their reforestation efforts. We used a 19‐year‐old polycross progeny test of the model conifer white spruce (Picea glauca) replicated on two sites affected by distinct drought episodes at different ages to estimate the genetic control and the potential for improvement of drought response in addition to conventional cumulative growth and wood quality traits. Drought response components were measured from dendrochronological signatures matching drought episodes in wood ring increment cores. We found that trees with more vigorous growth during their lifespan resisted better during the current year of a drought episode when the drought had more severe effects. Phenotypic data were also analyzed using genomic prediction (GBLUP) relying on the genomic relationship matrix of multi‐locus gene SNP marker information, and conventional analysis (ABLUP) based on validated pedigree information. The accuracy of predicted breeding values for drought response components was marginally lower than that for conventional traits and comparable between GBLUP and ABLUP. Genetic correlations were generally low and nonsignificant between drought response components and conventional traits, except for resistance which was positively correlated to tree height. Heritability estimates for the components of drought response were slightly lower than for conventional traits, but similar single‐trait genetic gains could be obtained. Multi‐trait genomic selection simulations indicated that it was possible to improve simultaneously for all traits on both sites while sacrificing little on gain in tree height. In a context of rapid climate change, our results suggest that with careful phenotypic assessment, drought response may be considered in multi‐trait improvement of white spruce, with accelerated screening of large numbers of candidates and selection at young age with genomic selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect tree growth in boreal forests. Periodic insect outbreaks affect the growth trajectory of trees, making it difficult to quantify the climate signal in growth dynamics at scales longer than a year. We studied climate‐driven growth trends and the influence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks on these trends by analyzing the basal area increment (BAI) of 2058 trees of Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Thuja occidentalis L., Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh, which co‐occurs in the boreal mixedwood forests of western Quebec. We used a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to analyze species‐specific trends in BAI dynamics from 1967 to 1991. The model relied on tree size, cambial age, degree of spruce budworm defoliation, and seasonal climatic variables. Overall, we observed a decreasing growth rate of the spruce budworm host species, A. balsamea and P. glauca between 1967 and 1991, and an increasing growth rate for the non‐host, P. tremuloides, B. papyrifera, and T. occidentalis. Our results suggest that insect outbreaks may offset growth increases resulting from a warmer climate. The observation warrants the inclusion of the spruce budworm defoliation into models predicting future forest productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree-ring data for 1942 - 2013 were used to determine if boreal and subalpine Picea albertiana S. Brown emend. Strong & Hills radial growth rates changed after 1950 in southern Yukon, northwest Canada. The latter year represented the beginning of accelerated atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation, which has subsequently caused global climate changes. Ring-width chronologies for both boreal and subalpine trees were constructed using 80 trees. Individual ring-width sequences were crossdated, age-detrended, and converted to tree ring-width indices (RWI). In 2013, boreal and subalpine RWI were 41% and 169% greater than in 1950, respectively. In contrast, elevational treeline chronologies in the region typically decreased 20% - 70%. During 1942 - 2013, boreal and subalpine chronologies were significantly, at best modestly (r < |0.36|), and exclusively correlated with either moisture or temperature variables, respectively. Within this same time frame, RWI-climate variable correlates differed between the early and late phases of each chronology. Average pre-1969 or early-phase boreal correlations based on a 19-year moving window reached a maximum of - 0.56. Late-phase chronology correlations typically shifted towards weaker associations with climate variables (typically +0.04 to +0.30). For boreal RWI, 25 of 68 tested climate variables shifted as much as 0.40 - 0.88 correlation coefficient units between the early and late phases of the chronologies. Subalpine RWI were correlated only with July - August precipitation during the early phase of its chronology. These changes suggest responses by spruce to climate have shifted since 1970. The modest 1942 - 2013 RWI-climate variable correlations likely reflect the result of these changing ecological relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change may have spatially variable impacts on growth of trees in topographically diverse environments, making generalizing across broad spatial and temporal extents inappropriate. Therefore, topography must be considered when analyzing growth response to climate. We address these topo-climatic relationships in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, focusing on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Louden) and interior spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss × Picea engelmannii hybrid Parry) growth response to climate, Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), aspect, and slope angle. Climate variables correlate with older lodgepole pine growth on south- and west-facing slopes, including previous August temperature, winter and spring precipitation, and previous late-summer and current spring PDSI, but younger lodgepole pine were generally less sensitive to climate. Climate variables correlate with interior spruce growth on all slope aspects, with winter temperature and PDSI important for young and old individuals. Numerous monthly growth–climate correlations are not temporally stable, with shifts over the past century, and response differs by slope aspect and angle. Both species are likely to be negatively affected by moisture stress in the future in some, but not all, topographic environments. Results suggest species-specific and site-specific spatiotemporally diverse climate–growth responses, indicating that climate change is likely to have spatially variable impacts on radial growth response in mountainous environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many forest tree species have characteristics that make the study of their evolutionary ecology complex. For example, they are long‐lived and thus have long generation times, and their often large, complex genomes have hampered establishing genomic resources. One way to tackle this challenge is to access multiple complementary data sources and analytical approaches when attempting to infer patterns of adaptive evolution. In the cover article of this issue of Molecular Ecology, Depardieu et al. (2021) combine large amounts of environmental, genomic, dendrochronological, and gene expression data in a common garden to explore the polygenic basis of drought resistance in white spruce (Picea glauca), a long‐lived conifer. They identify candidate genes involved in growth and resistance to extreme drought events and show how multiple data sets may deliver complementary evidence to circumvent the manifold challenges of the research field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Drought response of three disparate shelterbelt species is explored. • Severe and extreme 3-month droughts most greatly affect tree. • Scots pine and white spruce recover more quickly than green ash. Across western Canada, more frequent and severe droughts are expected to occur as a result of climate change. Forests are particularly vulnerable to drought as it often results in mortality events even years following a moisture deficit. Similar events have been observed in Saskatchewan shelterbelts, where many species are planted far outside their native range and are likely more vulnerable to environmental changes. Understanding how common shelterbelt species respond to drought will help landowners make better management decisions under a changing climate. This study looks at how three common shelterbelt species (green ash, Scots pine and white spruce) respond to different drought characteristics (severity, timing, and length) for up to five years following a moisture deficit using superposed epoch analysis. We identified that severe and extreme 3-month droughts greatly impact all three species. However, Scots pine and white spruce tend to recover more rapidly than green ash. Green ash is typically considered one of the most drought tolerant shelterbelt species, but its long recovery times suggest that this may be false. Scots pine was impacted by late summer droughts and white spruce was impacted by June droughts. Both Scots pine and white spruce also saw compensatory growth after their recovery period. This research augments our understanding of how drought characteristics impact three common shelterbelt species in Saskatchewan and how they are likely to recover under more frequent and severe drought events given projected climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]