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Landslides are common across Canada and they pose hazards to human safety, economic activities, and the environment. Robust risk management strategies are necessary for sustainable development. A slope risk management framework has been adopted by the geotechnical community for approximately four decades allowing a systematic, consistent and transparent framework for managing risks. Implementing this framework is associated with uncertainties embedded in our estimates of risk. This paper presents a brief summary of the sources and categories of uncertainty in geotechnical slope engineering and focuses on two topics: (1) estimates of uncertainty in risk calculations and (2) temporal changes in landslide likelihood as a function of weather and steps towards estimating landslide risk changes with climate change. The paper argues that a quantitative risk assessment should not focus on the final risk calculation, but the overall knowledge gained. This allows comprehensive documentation of sources of uncertainty and how they impact geotechnical and risk assessments. Furthermore, the paper outlines approaches to define quantitative correlations between rock fall occurrences and weather, which can be leveraged to estimate changes in rock fall risk with climate change. The paper corresponds to, and expands on, the 2021 Canadian Geotechnical Colloquium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change (CC) causes extreme meteorological events such as floods, droughts, water scarcity, heat waves, wildfires, and extreme cold. CC may also damage public infrastructures such as drinking water systems (DWSs) and reduce water quality from source to tap. The objective of this review paper is to provide a critical analysis of (1) the impact of CC on the three components of the DWSs: source, treatment, and distribution; (2) the perspectives of DWS employees on CC impacts and adaptation solutions for maintaining water quality; and (3) decision support systems (DSSs) that could be used by DWS employees for CC adaptation. A bibliographic research was conducted using international databases and search engines. The search for scientific articles resulted in the selection of 5234 articles, 78 of which were analyzed in more detail for the elaboration of this scoping review. This review shows that the impacts of CC on water quality are significant, but DWS employees are not enthusiastic about developing adaption measures. This review also shows that DSSs can help DWS employees facilitate the CC adaptation process for the protection of source water, improve water treatment plant operations, and enhance routine management of water quality in the distribution system. Further research is needed to identify strategies that might increase the awareness of and interest in climate change impacts, adaptation, and the use of DSSs among DWS employees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of icing involves the freezing of overflow layers, on ground or within streams, and results in ice bodies called "aufeis" that are common in most northern landscapes. Knowledge about aufeis is still limited despite the cold region engineering challenge they represent. Understanding the causes of overflow events leading to aufeis development represents a key for the prediction, mitigation, and management of this geohazard and can also support the planning and design of infrastructure in the North. This paper introduces a practical classification for the diverse range of overflow processes that generate aufeis, including under-represented processes, such as the instability of winter streamflow. Importantly, it distinguishes flow conveyance from water supply overflow processes and describes the temporal aspect of icing intensity. Finally, research topics are proposed to improve our understanding of aufeis, including their predictability, the impact of climate change on their occurrence and extent, and stream morphology–aufeis interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering the dynamics of New Brunswick's forests. To mitigate the effects of climate change, it is crucial to account for future uncertainties in climate projections and natural disturbance trajectories when designing forestry practices. This paper presents the projected changes in key climatic drivers for New Brunswick's forests, examines the impacts of climate change on forest stand dynamics, and reviews adaptive silviculture tools for climate change adaptation. By 2071–2100, a projected 4–6 °C increase in mean annual temperature will lead to a 39%–77% rise in growing degree-days and a reduction in summer atmospheric water balance by 48–79 mm across New Brunswick. Foresters should anticipate a doubling of annual area burned, the northward migration of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)), and the introduction of novel insects and diseases. Forest simulation models project a severe decline in boreal tree species abundance, including a 50% decline in balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill) and black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton et al.), offset by an increase in temperate species, notably red maple (Acer rubrum L.; +200%) and American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh; +135%). Forests in the highlands and lowlands ecoregions, with 40%–50% and 15%–30% spruce and balsam fir composition, respectively, are particularly vulnerable. To limit climate change effects on forest values, foresters must prioritize climate resiliency in their management plans. Strategies should ensure the steady provision of forest goods and services under changing climatic conditions. Forest thinning enhances stand productivity and resilience, while shelterwood and two-age harvest balances timber production with diversity. Clearcutting, despite drawbacks, establishes younger, more vigorous forests with higher carbon sequestration potential. Assisted migration offers promise in helping threatened tree species adapt. Climate change will have a significant impact on New Brunswick's forests, leading to changes in key climatic drivers, increased risks of disturbances, and a shift toward more temperate tree species. However, there are existing adaptation strategies available. It is crucial to consider future uncertainties when designing and evaluating forestry practices, as this is essential for mitigating the effects of climate change on forest values and ensuring the continued provision of forest goods and services over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic warming is occurring at a much faster rate than in other parts of the globe, with potentially devastating consequences for the diverse array of species within ecologically and biologically sensitive areas in the Arctic marine region. However, climate change research in this region is sparse compared to other biomes, hindering conservation efforts. In this article, we review and synthesize the available literature to understand the observed and potential impacts of climate change on different species and ecosystems in the Arctic marine region. We reviewed 253 articles reporting changes in species and ecosystems in the Arctic marine region in response to climate change (225 studies documenting observed impacts and 28 reporting predicted impacts). The review revealed that most research effort has been concentrated in only a subset of Arctic Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) (5/18 LMEs), with the majority of Arctic LMEs being poorly studied. The majority of the reviewed papers focused on marine mammals (19%) followed by microalgae (17%). A number of studies documented variability in planktonic communities (microalgae, macroalgae, zooplankton), resulting in alteration in ecosystem structure and function. Reproductive failure, decline in populations, and changes in diet composition, behavior, and breeding biology were reported for sea birds and mammals. Further, shifts in spatial distribution of fishes were observed by several studies. This review provides persuasive evidence that multiple climate change indices in the Arctic region are changing, with impacts on almost all components of marine biotic ecosystems (from plankton to top predators). We identify a number of gaps (such as limited inventory of biota, robustness of data supporting climate change indices on an Arctic Ocean scale, and climate suitability assessment for all species) in climate change research in Arctic marine ecosystems where future studies can help to quantify the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems and advance understanding for their adaptive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent expansion of municipality limits has resulted in an increase in the wildland–urban interface, causing fires in the wildlands to potentially encroach and enter urban centers. This paper proposes a fire-risk modeling framework within a climate resiliency context. The study uses large-scale geospatial datasets in combination with the analytical hierarchy process. Using various high-resolution-detailed datasets, an extensive list of variables was utilized to develop a novel fire-risk model. To support the goal of creating a climate-resilient urban municipality, an ecological vulnerability classification map was constructed to identify developable areas and areas under preservation. Regarding creating awareness for climate adaptation and zone, a brief discussion on the role of each stakeholder is provided. The discussion covers strategies for fire prevention and mitigation in high-risk areas/zones, as well as establishing several cornerstones for strategic planning and action to strengthen climate resilience of urban communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are a natural landscape disturbance in many climates and forest types, but the cumulative impact of human-caused climate change, historical fire management and suppression, and changing species diversity in forests has led to an increase in the size and (or) severity of wildfires in certain regions across the globe. There are a significant number of research studies on the effects of wildfire on human health, forest ecology, hydrology, and the physical, chemical, and biological properties of soils. However, research on the impact of wildfire on watersheds including toxicity in aquatic organisms, water chemistry, and fluvial sediment quality is less extensive, focusing primarily on water quality indicators such as nutrients and sediment flux. Recent research has shown that wildfires contribute to the environment significant amounts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are compounds produced during the incomplete combustion of organic material, and are known to be toxic and mutagenic compounds. The primary objective of this paper is to review the recent literature that pertains to the contamination of surface waters and sediments and source apportionment of wildfire-derived PAHs to determine where research gaps remain. Additional objectives are to assess the use of molecular ratios to apportion PAH sources and, finally, to create a roadmap for future studies in designing and conducting research that seeks to determine sources of wildfire-derived PAHs in water and sediment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's climate is warming at a rate about double the global average, leading to potential negative impacts on public infrastructures such as jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP). In light of this reality of changing climate, the work contained in this paper is aimed at evaluating JPCP's early-age behaviour in response to environmental conditions. HIPERPAV® software and the associated models developed by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) were used to identify cracking potential. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effect of different levels of air temperature, mix temperature, base layer temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. Additionally, projected extreme temperatures predicted by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM) were used to determine the relative impact of climate change on cracking risk. The results demonstrated the increased cracking risk under changing climate in several Canadian cities by mid-century and highlighted the importance of developing a pathway forward for climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]